Some advanced Sabermetrics questions

Question

I'm writing sort of an uber line up analysis and need some help with the stats.

I read about ultimate base running (UBR or BSR) as a way of summing up a batter's baserunning ability excluding base stealing. Does anyone have a chart / estimation regarding a batter's chance to go 1st to 3rd or 2nd to home on a single based on his BSR?

Secondly, I'm wondering how GB% effects double plays for a batter. Does a batter's GB% raise, drop or remain even with a runner at first? Also if anyone here knows about the chances of a double play based on GB% (assuming a runner at first).

Also if there's a site for all those sort of charts (I don't mind paying if the fee is reasnoble) it would be much obliged.

Answer 1

I ran a query based off your second question, and these were the results:

BASE_STATE	GB%	FB%	LD%	PU%*
Bases Empty	44.9	36.9	18.1	7.8
1--	43.7	37.5	18.8	7.8
-2-	46.3	35.8	17.8	7.7
12-	44.7	37.2	18	8
--3	45.3	36.9	17.8	8
1-3	44.9	37.2	17.9	7.9
-23	46.1	36.6	17.3	7.9
123	44.2	37.9	17.9	8.5

 

Comments

Thanks a lot, +1. And by the way, where did you run this query?

---

I ran it using a SQL program and the retrosheet files.

Your 1st question is definitely answerable, but it would take a bit of data-collecting. In their Base Running and Misc table, B-ref has an Extra Base Taken % or something similar if you are interested in that, as well as 1st-to-3rd and 2nd-to-home data.

---

I wrote something for BTB about your question, it may interest you.

---

Read the article, some interesting points. I think the steady GB% is a result of the batter's effort to lift the ball up balancing the heavier array of sinkers / 2smers down in the zone. While I don't have the stats to back the talk I'm pretty sure that in DP situations the amount of "Ground ball pitches" rise significantly, so I assume the batter's effort not to hit into the dp is what balances the scale.