Fangraphs Q&A - Recent questions and answers in Strategy

Jacoby Ellsbury or Michael Bourn

Fri, 24 May 2013 23:11:02 +0000

Should I keep Ellsbury eventhough he is struggling or pick up Bourn ?

Answered: Dustin Pedroia

Thu, 09 May 2013 22:00:30 +0000

Well he is hitting ground balls around 57% of the time(up 10% from his average). Usually you have to actually hit the ball in there air to get a home run. He is also just missing often. His SwStr% is up about 2% from his average and he is making contact with the ball about 85 % of the time. This is down 5% from his usual average. Gotta hit the balll to get a home run too

drop mig montero for sal perez, jp arencibia, or pierzynski

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 05:57:47 +0000

Answered: should i drop lance berkman?

Fri, 19 Apr 2013 20:26:25 +0000

If it is an OBP league, you'll definitely want to keep Berkman. For standard 5x5 Marte will probably give you better counting numbers in terms of runs/steals. It kind of depends on what you have vs what you want.

I would keep Berkman around. If he gets hurt, drop him, but otherwise feel comfortable in Berkman.

Would you start Neise and Gallardo today?

Thu, 18 Apr 2013 14:52:42 +0000

Lincecum's Slider

Tue, 26 Mar 2013 15:10:21 +0000

I remember two years ago there were news stories that Lincecum was scrapping his slider in an effort to put less strain on his elbow. It was never revealed if there was an actual problem with the elbow, or if this was a purely propholactic measure. He has not been the same pitcher since.

As people look/hope for any indications of a bounce-back season, is there any way to check his slider usage this spring? It might be indicative of his chances of success in 2013...

Thanks!

Go for Saves, Punt Starting Pitching

Thu, 21 Mar 2013 00:29:01 +0000

I should preface this by saying that my 14-team, 5x5 roto league has no minimum for innings pitched over the course of a season -- I'm not sure if that's standard or not.

Anyway, it occured to me that predicting low WHIP & ERA closers, while far from exact, is not quite so difficult to do. And with no minimum on IP, there's no real incentive to racking up innings with SP -- why not just focus on drafting the best closers on the market, punt SP, and make up for it with middle relievers over the course of the season -- the guys who can pick up 5 - 10 wins throwing from the middle of the game.

Done a few mock drafts and the projections wind up pretty good -- top of the league in S, WHIP, & ERA, lower-middle of the pack in K's, and at the bottom of W's, but I think that last category isn't accurate since there's typically a lot of unpredictability around what middle relievers will wind up with W's.

Thoughts?

Can you explain why Steamer has Ben Sheets Projected for the most innings pitched in the NL?

Tue, 12 Mar 2013 16:01:21 +0000

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&players=0&sort=8,d

Answered: Previous year projections

Mon, 11 Mar 2013 17:19:00 +0000

Check out http://bbprojectionproject.com/

Looking for draft tools / Last Player Picked ZiPS file, composite ZiPS/Steamer projections.

Thu, 07 Mar 2013 22:08:17 +0000

I keep trying in import ZiPS, but it results in not working correctly.

Also I like Last Player Standing, but I'd like more categories like Quality Starts, Net Steals and Net Saves are not included.

I love PFM, but their are flaw when it tells me to draft Shin-Soo Choo in the 2nd round while never reccomeding I draft a pitcher.

I'd ideally love a composite of ZiPS,Steamer, and PECOTA if possible.

I want to adapt the Mayberry Method (Shandler) to Zips, what categories should I use from the Zips projections?

Thu, 28 Feb 2013 12:35:03 +0000

Mayberry Hitters: Power, Hit Tool, Speed, Playing Time

Mayberry Pitchers: ERA ability, Strikeout Ability, Saves potential/ability and playing time)

Answered: I have Pujols, M. Cabrera, J. Hamilton and M. Trout as keepers, do I start drafting elite pitchers in my live draft?

Tue, 26 Feb 2013 14:15:20 +0000

Holy wow. Your team is stacked right off of the bat. If it is an auction draft, I would start bidding any remaining elite players. If you can artificially inflate the price for those players, that leaves you more room to buy the elite pitchers later on. If someone blows $49 on Cano, they can't spend 48 on Kershaw/Verlander too, can they?

If it is a snake draft, I would probably go with what you suggest and take pitchers early.

Answered: Hitting statistics in games where the opposing starting pitcher is right handed

Wed, 20 Feb 2013 14:03:34 +0000

I think I understand. This is for fantasy purposes, right? You want a player's stats against in games where a RHP started the game including lefty relievers at the end of the game in order to see how much of an impact the later lefties have on the hitter's overall value for that day? This would help you determine how much you would start platooning players?

correct me if I'm wrong in my interpretation.

Answered: Goal for quality starts in a 5 x 5?

Fri, 15 Feb 2013 21:54:36 +0000

I'm in a Quality Starts league. I like it better than counting Wins. In the draft, I think the trick is to not overvalue the QS stat.

Take a look at the top 75 SPs from the 2012 season (Ok, not the best sampling approach, but good enough to give you a sense of what to expect – it allows for approx 6 SPs per team in a 12 team league).

Range: At #1, RA Dickey topped the list with 27 QS. At #75, Ervin Santana came in with 15 QS.

Average: 19 (well, 18.96...close enough). :)

Midpoint: 19

Top 25%: 21-27

Distribution:

# of QS	Count of Player
27	1
25	4
24	1
23	3
22	6
21	7
20	9
19	6
18	9
17	11
16	10
15	8
Grand Total	75

What strategy to take in all this? For me, I don’t even bother targeting QS. I target quality pitchers, who I expect to produce a low ERA and simply use ERA as a proxy for QS…and, I take SIERA projections seriously (see Fangraphs article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-pitching-projections-better-than-era-estimators/)

IMHO, since both ERA and QS include runs earned in their calculations, good performance in ERA should lead in good performance in the QS category (a majority of the time). For example, for those same 75 players from last year, correlation between ERA and QS was 0.52. Again, good enough, given the relative unpredictability of ERA and QS from season to season. Good Luck!

Answered: OBP instead of Avg

Thu, 14 Feb 2013 02:10:41 +0000

FanGraphs has a great breakdown in their glossary, under "OBP." It also does a a nice breakdown by position.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/obp/

Rating	OBP
Excellent	0.400
Great	0.370
Above Average	0.340
Average	0.320
Below Average	0.310
Poor	0.300
Awful	0.290

Unfortunately, this doesn't tell you anything about how your fantasy team needs to perform in the OBP category. Part of it depends on how many teams are in the league. For fantasy purposes, I'd say you probably want your team to produce in the .350 - .360 range.

I can tell you that my highly-competitive roto league fits the FanGraphs breakdown pretty well. Here's the min/max for the OBP category in my league, for the past 5 years. You can see the range goes up when there are fewer teams.

Year	Min	Max	# of teams
2012	0.314	0.345	12
2011	0.319	0.351	14
2010	0.334	0.363	11
2009	0.340	0.367	10
2008	0.338	0.363	10

Good luck!

Answered: Anywhere to get a list of all MLB hitters w/ L/R/Switch handedness listed?

Sat, 09 Feb 2013 18:24:50 +0000

I'm not sure what you're looking for.

Do you want to see a projection system seperated into a leaderboard for LHB/P and RHB/P, plus park factors?

You could export the 2013 ZiPS yourself, arrange the batter handedness data and sort the leaderboard yourself.

Answered: Should I compare 2012 stats to 3-year avg or career avg?

Sat, 09 Feb 2013 18:21:00 +0000

Both.

It shouldn't be an either/or situation. Using more data is always a good idea. For example, look at Adam Jones. Last season saw him set career highs in runs scored, home runs, and batting average.

His past three years show an upward trend in HR/FB% and even an upward trend in SB. It makes sense to look at all available data, not just one isolated bucket. People (myself included) tend to forget that even seasons are arbitrary end points. Look at the work of a player in toto, not just buckets of data.

Points League Rankings

Wed, 06 Feb 2013 21:56:16 +0000

I have played mostly 5x5 ESPN style leagues for the past many years. Last year I got involved in a 16 team points league on Yahoo. I fared pretty well in the first season but was hoping that I could get some advice on how to value players. I'm doing my pre draft cheat sheets. What makes a player more (or less) valuable in a points league? Are the differences major or minor? Thanks!

Did RotoGraphs do a "End of Season Rankings for RP?

Tue, 29 Jan 2013 23:32:53 +0000

I saw the articles with the End of Season Rankings for all the other positions except RP. They were written by Zach Saunders.

Thks,

Any chance FG+ might include something like Baseball Prospectus's Player Forecast Manager?

Wed, 09 Jan 2013 03:02:07 +0000

PFM lets you use projections to create customized valuations for fantasy ball. But you probably know that.

Thanks,

Phil

Answered: Projecting batting average

Mon, 31 Dec 2012 19:43:19 +0000

This formula is essentially creating an xBABIP, then converting it to an average. If you look at Hamilton's batted ball splits that season, you'll see his GB and LD BABIP/AVG are about 50 points higher than average, but his FB AVG is double the league average. If you take away half of his 65 flyball hits, you get an drop of 33/518 = 64 points in average, which is much closer to your number. Luck is still greatly involved, so this is more of a projection tool than for retrospect.

Looking for a DEEP Dynasty League?

Thu, 04 Oct 2012 16:51:06 +0000

Hello Folks,

We have an opening in the Bases Loaded Baseball 20 team mixed h2h 7x7 dynasty league. We have a $120 salary cap and FA bidding/contracts. The First Year Player draft is starting up now as we enter our first offseason after a very competitive and active inaugural season.

Link to league homepage: http://www.basesloadedbaseball.proboards.com/index.cgi?

e-mail Ryan the Commish: jaxonrocks@yahoo.com if you want in

last chance streamers - porcello or hanson, or neither?

Mon, 01 Oct 2012 21:39:21 +0000

it's a tight race in my roto league, have to set the lineup for the last week, its not a daily setup.

currently have 9 starters, 1 RP, but I'm thinking I need to sit either Porcello or Hanson as I can't afford to give up many ER's cause I'm only fractions ahead of 2 managers and it could cost me the season.

But on the flipside I'm in a 3-way tie in the wins category, and one guy has only 2 more wins than me, so i stand to gain quite a few points there.

I'm 2 saves ahead of someone too who is starting Wilhelmsen, Valverde and Street. Not terribly worried about getting passed but I have Rodney, Motte and Perkins.

Would you sit both Porcello and Hanson, or just one of them and start 2 of the aforementioned closers? Which ones? Motte and Rodney are at home so they could luck into a vulture win, so that could be nice.

Answered: too early....or too late to drop Justin Masterson?

Fri, 24 Aug 2012 15:30:28 +0000

Masterson's ERA problems have come from an uptick in the HR/FB and BB% areas. If his ERA normalizes without those two elements improving, he's a fringe SP at best anyway.

On top of that, the Indians are in a full-on tailspin, so he's unlikely to help in the W category. I'd drop him if you have any sub-4.00 ERA/FIP pitchers on the waiver wire, or if you're not in a keeper league, but if you can stash him without losing much, I'd hold onto him -- because I imagine one or two of the teams below you will be willing to take a chance on him.

Answered: desolé je suis Francais

Fri, 10 Aug 2012 02:01:31 +0000

Je suis desole mais je n'écrit pas Francais. Mais, je comprends votre question.

Garder Morrow de votre équipe. Il sera bonne santé le dernier mois de la saison et il est mieux que les autres choix sur le waiver wire.

Bon chance!

With a $100 FAAB what is Quinton Berry worth in a Keeper League

Sun, 15 Jul 2012 16:28:27 +0000

This is an AL Only Auction league, 8 team league. 14 hitters, 9 pitchers.

Can only replace players with DL/minors/trade to NL until the All-Star Break. It's now after the All-Star break, so anyone can be replaced using an FAAB.

What is Quinton Berry worth for the rest of the season and going forward in as a keeper?

He would replace the combination of Daniel Nava and Eric Thames. My other outfielders are BJ Upton $22, Ellsbury $29, Rasmus $2, Plouffe $10 (picked him up after Bourgeois and Carp both went down).

Answered: Chris Sale: buy/sell/hold?

Fri, 13 Jul 2012 00:12:49 +0000

I wouldn't sell cheap, but if the right offer came around I would sell.

I nearly pulled off a Sale/BJ Upton for Matt Kemp deal, but it fell through.

I have also scoured the net for innings limit reports, and have not found anything conclusive. The problem is that the White Sox are now contenders, and they may want to artificially limit his innings in preparation for the playoffs. I could see them skipping a start or pushing him back a few days here and there. On the other hand if the Tigers mount a threat in the AL Central, they can't afford to skip him too much with the injuries to their rotation and/or ineffectiveness of other starters.

There's a lot of variables. Can Quintana keep this up? Will Axelrod give them any chance to win games in which he starts?

As a Chris Sale owner myself I'm looking for Detroit to possibly make a move or two and keep this a tight race right through September. That way the White Sox will need to pitch Sale on regular rest just to get into the playoffs.

How much PT will Billy Hamilton get?

Thu, 12 Jul 2012 06:50:39 +0000

I recieved an offer of Max Scherzer for my Ben Revere. I only have Michael Bourn and Brett Lawrie as my primary SB guys with no depth whatsoever at SS except a mediocre Jed Lowrie. Should I deal away Revere for Scherzer and find a way for Billy Hamilton to steal my some victories? Will he get sufficient playing time?

Answered: Sal Perez or Miguel Montero (RoS)

Sat, 07 Jul 2012 01:41:57 +0000

ZiPS ROS likes Perez's AVG by about 20 points over Montero. It's tough to turn away from such a known quantity (Montero) though, especially in that ballpark.

Also, fwiw, it's slightly odd that Perez hasn't taken a walk yet. I feel like that's the kind of thing that will catch up with him at some point (similar to Josh Hamilton's last 100 ABs) whereby pitchers recognize he's hacking and give him fewer pitches to hit.

Answered: Who are the best fantasy platoon players in the game right now?

Fri, 06 Jul 2012 16:34:24 +0000

Daniel Nava is crushing RHP ... .330/..444/.514

Will be interesting to see what happens when Crawford and Ellsbury return.

Thoughts on Uggla?

Fri, 06 Jul 2012 04:07:42 +0000

Uggla's last 3 half-seasons couldn't be more different. He was the worst player on earth in early 2011, then set the world on fire in the second half, and this season has somehow turned into a a high OBP, low SLG player. Who is the real Uggla? Is he just passed his prime and in decline and we should expect more of the same, or should he look more like his old self going forward?

Answered: Should I try to swap my Bruce for his Ellsbury?

Thu, 05 Jul 2012 18:40:07 +0000

Ellsbury is on track to return shortly after the AS break, so I would absolutely make this move if I were you.

Looks like a steal to me.

Answered: Bench a platoon player without a replacement?

Wed, 04 Jul 2012 00:00:37 +0000

Its possible if you feel the hit to his ratio stats will hurt more than the loss of his counting stats.

But for his career he averages:

266/93/8/51/20 per 162 games and

291/54/6/27/11 per 81 home games

Which of those two lines will have more value for the season?

Answered: HELP w/ my ROTO team !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 03 Jul 2012 14:57:17 +0000

ideas: trade dunn to a team in need of power for a SP, sell high on milone for a hitter, and get in the business of streaming OFs/Utils until Ellsbury gets back.

btw, who was your 2nd round pick?

Answered: To punt or not to punt (saves)

Mon, 02 Jul 2012 13:47:01 +0000

If you're deciding to punt a category, you can't just look at the pitching stats to predict your total performance. How are you doing in offense? If you can predict finishing the season in the top 3 for 6 categories, that should more than make up for punting a category.

You most likely would not get much of an upgrade if you trade for a reliever, or deal Rodney. Myers for Kuroda is probably the best trade you'd get, and if the Astros trade Myers he may not be closing anymore.

Right now Rodney is helping you in ERA/WHIP. I'd probably pick up a guy like Romo or K-Rod, who could potentially wind up in a closer situation in the next month or so and help your other stats in the meantime. Punting RPs will require more work in playing matchups to help fix your ERA after the hurt Lincecum put on it for the first half.

Whatever you decide, don't trade Zobrist for Casilla.

Answered: Time to sell Josh Hamilton?

Fri, 29 Jun 2012 20:45:25 +0000

Should I try to "buy low" Hamilton with Trout?

Answered: Best Daily Fantasy League Site?

Thu, 28 Jun 2012 22:45:01 +0000

That's a clown question, bro.

Is anyone playing Old Hoss Fantasy Baseball?

Wed, 27 Jun 2012 23:49:57 +0000

Curious how you've adjusted to the autodraft and ruleset.

The categories are Hits, Putouts, K, RBI, and AVG / IP W K CG SHO

Answered: Am I done for this season?

Tue, 26 Jun 2012 15:50:32 +0000

With two weeks to go before the deadline, I would start reaching out to teams in contention to see what trades are out there. You'll need a combination of good luck re underperformers & injured players coming back on time if you want to compete.

Answered: I have Longoria, Tulo, and Morrow and only 3 Bench spots and 1 DL spot, should I drop any of them?

Tue, 26 Jun 2012 15:39:28 +0000

Non-Keeper league, I would be ok dropping Tulo and Morrow. Tulo won't get in more than a Month, and pitcher injuries tend to drag on.