|Profile: It's starting to become a thing: Julio Teheran has pitched four full seasons in the majors at this point, and in every one, his ERA has outperformed his FIP by at least 0.35 points. On a surface level, it's easy to point to the reasons why: in 2016, for example, Teheran finished with a BABIP of .260 (vs. an average .298 BABIP for all starters) and a 77.8% strand rate (vs. 72.2%). Teheran has been a flyball pitcher for most of his career (41.0% FB rate), which could at least partially explain the low BABIP, though his infield fly rate and flyball exit velocity are both near average. He also had some issues with the speed of his fastball, especially near the start of the year. Teheran did cut his walk rate significantly from his 3.27 BB/9 in 2015, and he ramped up usage of his very effective slider, so his strong 3.21 ERA last year may well be indicative of some improvement compared to his 4.04 rate in 2014. There's still the danger, though, that he could end up closer to a league-average starter than the ace the Braves are counting on him to be. Don't pick Teheran at the SP2/3 slot he's likely to be drafted at this spring, but if he falls a little bit further, there's some upside if he somehow manages to keep the magic going. (Brice Russ)|
The Quick Opinion: Teheran is a good pitcher, but it's not completely clear that he'll continue to outperform his ERA estimators. He'll likely be more of a top-40 SP than a top-25 one in 2017.