More on regression, xFIP, HR/FB, BABIP, and the like

There’s been some good discussion going on today that I thought I’d bring to your attention. Chris Liss mentioned my post from a couple weeks ago on Dan Haren, luck, and randomness in a column at RotoWire, and some interesting debate sprang up in the comments. As usual, I ended up writing a book for my comment, so I posted the majority of it over at the CardRunners site as well. There’s been some comments on both sites since then, so you might be interested in checking the discussion out.


Print This Post
Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Mike Podhorzer
Guest
Mike Podhorzer
Scott Pianowski’s comment about thinking of the top 15 pitchers is a flawed way of looking at things. Surely, ERA plays a large part in his opinion of who the best pitchers are. As a result, he will likely include many (and he said 11 of the 15) that will have suppressed HR/FB ratios that fool him into believing they are top 15 pitchers. Unfortunately, these pitchers may not have nearly enough innings to prove this is actually a skill and not just dumb luck. Tommy Hanson is a perfect example of this. Career xFIP of 4.02, but just a… Read more »
tdotsports1
Guest
tdotsports1

Dear god, boys we need to support our own (Carty) as some of those comments are plain pathetic.  Keep up the battle Derek, we got your back!

Derek Carty
Guest
Derek Carty

Haha, thanks tdotsports1.

Jonathan
Guest
Jonathan

I think that Chris’ confusion or doubt stems from not thinking about Bayesian statistics.

Derek Carty
Guest
Derek Carty

Exactly, Mike.  I posted something similar in response to Scott over on the RotoWire thread.

Bobby Mueller
Guest
Bobby Mueller
Dan Haren is singlehandedly destroying my faith in FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. I’ve kept him on my team all year long and he just continues to kick me in the nuts, like today with his 7 earned runs allowed.  His K/BB is great, his strikeout rate is good, yet his BABIP continues to be off-the-charts high. Meanwhile, I dropped Tim Hudson in early May because I thought his .240 BABIP was not sustainable and his K/BB was barely at 1.0.  Hudson just keeps rolling along.  His BABIP is now .235. I’m beginning to think too much knowledge is a bad… Read more »
Pat
Guest
Pat
I think the problem is people misuse these peripheral stats. You need to look at the actual player too. Some players are good at bettering the stats while others don’t live up to them.  Matt Cain seems to better them while someone like David Bush is not. Bush had 2 season with a 1.14 WHIP and his ERA was like 4.4 and 4.2. The other thing I think people assume is that if a guy is labeled unlucky by peripheral stats, he will be lucky for the rest of the year. And vice versa. Lets assume a SP has a… Read more »
wpDiscuz