Cespedes signs with the A’s

In a somewhat surprising turn of events, it seems that the 27-year-old Cuban outfielder known as Yoenis Cespedes has signed a four-year, $36 million contract to play for the Oakland Athletics. Cespedes was linked to many teams this offseason and remarked at one point earlier in the offseason that the Chicago Cubs were his leading suitor, while the Miami Marlins recently offered him a six-year deal that was reportedly a bit under $40 million.

THT Forecasts (subscriptions available through this link), projects Cespedes for a very modest, but above-average, output for the next four years. For 2012, Oliver projects a triple-slash line of .266/.308/.447 while forecasting a triple-slash line of .258/.298/.422 in 2015 (the last year of Cespedes’ contract).

On the plus side, Oliver projects Cespedes’ power around 20 home runs per 500 plate appearances, and fantasy owners should be excited for the 10+ stolen bases that THT Forecasts envisions Cespedes capable of producing.

Keeping in mind what Alexei Ramirez and most Cuban prospects have done in their transition to the major leagues, that production seems about right (with upside, of course). As with Ramirez, I also would not expect much in the way of on-base prowess.

Overall, Cespedes immediately projects as a .325 wOBA guy with power upside and on-base downside. That could easily result in 2.0-3.0 WAR production over 162 games with a good enough glove. At $9 million a year for only four years covering a power hitter’s prime, the A’s have made a really solid investment with upside. Cespedes should at least be worth what the team is paying him.


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Jeffrey Gross is an attorney who periodically moonlights as a (fantasy) baseball analyst. He also responsibly enjoys tasty adult beverages. You can read about those adventures at his blog and/or follow him on Twitter @saBEERmetrics.

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6 Comments on "Cespedes signs with the A’s"

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Brian Cartwright
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Brian Cartwright

Kevin Goldstein of Bpro has tweeted his opinion that Cespedes would need 1 to 3 months in the minors to get his timing down, as his only competition since the Cuban league ended last March was two weeks last month in the Dominican Winter League playoffs. Billy Beane will likely be quick to call up Cespedes as soon as he shows himself ready, as Cespedes would likely take over from Seth Smith as the A’s most productive offensive player.

Jeffrey Gross
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Jeffrey Gross

Thanks for the insight Brian. My gut says Seth Smith will be the better player though smile

Michael
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Michael

So…Jeff Francoer for $9 million a year?

Jeffrey Gross
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Jeffrey Gross

Billy Beane does not get credit for his shrewd moves. The A’s are always in rebuilding mode, but it’s a great place to be when your team is uncertain in terms of finances and future location. Beane is keeping the franchise in a position to compete within a short frame after getting the future of the franchise settled. Sully and I talked about this in length on his podcast

Jeffrey Gross
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Jeffrey Gross

Michael,

I’d call Francouer the floor, not the ceiling

Brian Cartwright
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Brian Cartwright

Looking at my depth chart spread sheet, I’d go with Crisp in CF, Cespedes and Smith in the corners until Choice arrives (probably next summer or sooner)

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