2013 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which have typically appeared in the pages of Baseball Think Factory, are being released at FanGraphs this year. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other 2013 Projections: Angels / Astros / Athletics / Blue Jays / Brewers / Cardinals / Cubs / Diamondbacks / Dodgers / Giants / Mariners / Marlins / Mets / Nationals / Orioles / Padres / Phillies / Pirates / Rangers / Rays / Reds / Rockies / Royals / Tigers / Twins / White Sox / Yankees.

Batters
It’s important, of course, to acknowledge always that front offices — especially the sort which have a reputation for embracing all manner of analysis — that they might possess certain information to which we, baseball’s laypeople, are not privy. To whatever degree that might be the case, however, it’s difficult to imagine what information precisely the Red Sox might have with regard to Jonny Gomes, whom the club signed to a two-year, $10 million contract this offseason and intends, it seems, to deploy as their starting left fielder. While the bar is rather low for Gomes to earn his money, Dan Szymborski’s math computer suggests that Gomes’ odds of producing like an average major-leaguer aren’t excellent.

I asked Szymborski about the Gomes projection — and, in particular, to what degree it might account for platoon splits (Gomes having a reputation for possessing a large-ish one). To which question Szymborski replied: “ZiPS only knows past usage.” To that point, we ought to consider this when considering Gomes’s rather successful 2012 season: about 59% of Gomes’s plate appearances in 2012 were against left-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, only one-third of his plate appearances between 2009 and -11 were against lefties.

Pitchers
Of some concern to readers over the course of these ZiPS posts has been the relatively conservative projections for those players who have just produced excellent seasons. In light of same, it’s worth noting Jon Lester’s forecast here. Lester, who posted WAR figures of 6.4 and 5.8 in 2009 and -10, respectively, was less effective so far as run prevention is concerned in 2011-12, during which pair of years he averaged only 3.5 WAR. Despite that, ZiPS projects him to improve upon his 2012 season both in terms of FIP relative to league average (91 FIP- in 2013 vs. 95 FIP- in 2012) and WAR (4.0 in 2013 vs. 3.3 in 2012) — in effect, regressing upwards to his previously established levels.

Boston’s preoccupation with relief help in recent offseasons — exemplified by deals which have netted them Andrew Bailey, Joel Hanrahan, and Mark Melancon (while also losing them Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick… and also Mark Melancon) — has, at the very least, allowed them to construct what appears to be a clearly above-average bullpen. Bailey and Hanrahan are joined by offseason signing Koji Uehara to form one of the better per-inning relief triumvirates in the league this year.

Bench/Prospects
It’s not completely outrageous — if the Jonny Gomes deal ever becomes a problem — to assume that outfield prospect Jackie Bradley might be the solution. After gaining considerable attention during his sophomore year at South Carolina, Bradley’s junior season was less impressive. The Red Sox took him with the 40th pick that summer anyway, and Bradley has been excellent so far as a professional. Acquired in the giant August trade with the Dodgers, Rubby de la Rosa’s per-inning stats are encouraging, although ZiPS’ innings projection is duly restrained for a pitcher who’s thrown little more than a hundred of them over the past two seasons combined.

Depth Chart
Here’s a rough depth chart for the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player (click to embiggen):

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Credit to MLB Depth Charts for roster information.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Dustin Pedroia	R	29	2B	609	76	156	35	2	17	66	20	6
David Ortiz	L	37	DH	418	56	106	26	0	23	62	0	1
Shane Victorino	B	32	CF	637	79	153	32	10	13	64	27	6
Jacoby Ellsbury	L	29	CF	451	57	118	25	3	12	48	23	7
Will Middlebrooks	R	24	3B	500	45	120	25	1	19	74	8	2
Mike Napoli	R	31	1B	432	52	92	18	1	23	59	2	1
Stephen Drew	L	30	SS	451	54	101	22	5	9	50	4	3
Jackie Bradley	L	23	CF	516	59	112	25	2	8	41	18	9
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	B	28	C	397	45	82	19	2	17	49	1	1
Ryan Lavarnway	R	25	C	573	55	125	30	0	15	66	1	1
Daniel Butler	R	26	C	396	32	80	21	1	7	40	1	0
Brock Holt!	L	25	SS	548	60	133	26	5	2	49	11	9
Pedro Ciriaco	R	27	SS	538	61	137	24	5	5	53	22	9
Jose Iglesias	R	23	SS	506	45	118	15	1	2	34	14	5
Christian Vazquez	R	22	C	471	43	99	22	1	9	47	1	2
Xander Bogaerts	R	20	SS	499	51	111	25	2	15	53	4	6
David Ross	R	36	C	163	14	35	7	0	6	23	0	0
Ryan Kalish	L	25	CF	351	42	79	16	1	7	40	15	5
Ryan Sweeney	L	28	RF	322	37	79	20	3	1	30	1	1
Daniel Nava	B	30	LF	418	42	88	24	1	7	41	4	2
Alex Hassan	R	25	LF	442	42	93	22	1	7	39	3	1
Jonny Gomes	R	32	LF	391	47	81	15	1	15	54	4	2
Tony Thomas	R	26	2B	383	41	78	19	4	8	40	11	3
Lyle Overbay	L	36	1B	330	33	69	21	1	7	33	1	0
Mauro Gomez	R	28	1B	574	61	134	36	2	17	77	3	1
Drew Sutton	B	30	2B	339	33	69	21	2	3	32	2	3
Mitch Maier	L	31	RF	260	28	52	8	3	4	23	3	1
Jason Repko	R	32	LF	279	30	55	8	2	6	24	7	4
Mike Rivera	R	36	C	195	17	36	8	0	3	16	1	1
Bryce Brentz	R	24	RF	518	48	113	23	2	14	61	4	5
Scott Podsednik	L	37	LF	297	24	67	9	2	1	14	12	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Dustin Pedroia	609	9.4%	10.2%	.167	.298	.289	.357	.456	.352
David Ortiz	418	13.4%	14.8%	.264	.300	.294	.388	.558	.385
Shane Victorino	637	7.7%	11.9%	.158	.287	.267	.330	.425	.329
Jacoby Ellsbury	451	6.4%	13.1%	.161	.305	.284	.333	.445	.340
Will Middlebrooks	500	4.6%	27.0%	.179	.316	.255	.292	.434	.315
Mike Napoli	432	11.8%	27.5%	.240	.297	.248	.347	.488	.356
Stephen Drew	451	9.5%	20.0%	.146	.300	.250	.322	.396	.311
Jackie Bradley	516	9.3%	20.9%	.118	.304	.249	.329	.367	.308
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	397	7.8%	31.0%	.204	.290	.227	.290	.431	.310
Ryan Lavarnway	573	8.4%	23.7%	.145	.298	.243	.311	.388	.305
Daniel Butler	396	7.8%	21.2%	.123	.273	.225	.298	.348	.287
Brock Holt!	548	6.9%	16.8%	.084	.320	.267	.320	.351	.291
Pedro Ciriaco	538	2.0%	17.7%	.094	.315	.266	.281	.360	.275
Jose Iglesias	506	4.9%	13.4%	.050	.292	.254	.298	.304	.266
Christian Vazquez	471	7.4%	23.4%	.119	.288	.231	.294	.350	.283
Xander Bogaerts	499	6.4%	27.1%	.161	.308	.242	.295	.403	.299
David Ross	163	9.8%	29.4%	.173	.315	.241	.315	.414	.317
Ryan Kalish	351	7.7%	23.1%	.122	.308	.248	.306	.370	.299
Ryan Sweeney	322	7.1%	15.5%	.098	.317	.268	.321	.366	.299
Daniel Nava	418	9.6%	20.3%	.129	.293	.240	.329	.369	.307
Alex Hassan	442	10.2%	20.8%	.117	.296	.240	.328	.357	.305
Jonny Gomes	391	10.5%	28.4%	.183	.306	.240	.332	.423	.328
Tony Thomas	383	6.3%	29.0%	.146	.298	.222	.277	.368	.280
Lyle Overbay	330	10.3%	23.3%	.149	.294	.235	.315	.384	.303
Mauro Gomez	574	5.7%	26.8%	.171	.321	.252	.300	.423	.310
Drew Sutton	339	8.8%	24.8%	.113	.307	.231	.307	.344	.283
Mitch Maier	260	10.0%	23.1%	.114	.287	.227	.306	.341	.285
Jason Repko	279	6.1%	25.8%	.118	.275	.217	.274	.335	.267
Mike Rivera	195	6.2%	30.8%	.096	.284	.202	.263	.298	.246
Bryce Brentz	518	5.8%	30.9%	.144	.318	.234	.282	.378	.284
Scott Podsednik	297	4.7%	17.2%	.059	.296	.246	.283	.305	.259

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	WAR	No.1 Comp
Dustin Pedroia	609	6.4	117	8	4.8	John Valentin
David Ortiz	418	8.2	150	0	3.4	Willie McCovey
Shane Victorino	637	5.5	101	0	2.9	Brian McRae
Jacoby Ellsbury	451	5.8	107	2	2.5	Del Unser
Will Middlebrooks	500	4.7	92	3	1.8	Joe Crede
Mike Napoli	432	6.1	121	-2	1.8	Nick Esasky
Stephen Drew	451	4.5	92	0	1.7	Lou Collier
Jackie Bradley	516	4.3	87	5	1.6	Rich Becker
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	397	4.3	90	-3	1.3	Dave Duncan
Ryan Lavarnway	573	4.3	87	-8	1.3	Chris Snyder
Daniel Butler	396	3.6	73	3	1.2	Blake Barthol
Brock Holt!	548	4.0	80	0	1.1	Ernest Riles
Pedro Ciriaco	538	3.8	71	3	1.1	Javier Guzman
Jose Iglesias	506	3.4	63	8	1.1	Al Pedrique
Christian Vazquez	471	3.5	72	0	0.9	Marcus Jensen
Xander Bogaerts	499	4.1	85	-4	0.9	Tony Batista
David Ross	163	4.6	94	1	0.8	Tom Wilson
Ryan Kalish	351	4.2	81	0	0.6	Scott Lusader
Ryan Sweeney	322	4.3	84	4	0.5	Dave Martinez
Daniel Nava	418	4.3	87	1	0.4	Nate Espy
Alex Hassan	442	4.2	84	1	0.4	Adam Leggett
Jonny Gomes	391	5.0	101	-7	0.3	Don Lock
Tony Thomas	383	3.7	72	-2	0.2	Brandon Powell
Lyle Overbay	330	4.3	87	0	0.2	Tom Wilson
Mauro Gomez	574	4.6	91	-5	0.1	Stan Royer
Drew Sutton	339	3.6	75	-4	-0.1	Bobby Scales
Mitch Maier	260	3.7	74	0	-0.2	Pat Sheridan
Jason Repko	279	3.1	63	3	-0.3	Thomas Johnson
Mike Rivera	195	2.6	50	-2	-0.3	Joe Oliver
Bryce Brentz	518	3.6	75	-2	-0.7	Jeff Deardorff
Scott Podsednik	297	3.3	58	-4	-1.0	Joe Orsulak

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jon Lester	L	29	30	30	188.3	173	69	20	179	89	83
Clay Buchholz	R	28	24	24	147.0	102	54	16	145	73	68
Ryan Dempster	R	36	27	27	163.0	133	56	21	169	87	81
Felix Doubront	L	25	29	23	121.7	111	53	15	124	66	62
Allen Webster	R	23	28	24	129.0	83	61	11	142	75	70
Koji Uehara	R	38	43	0	39.7	49	6	5	31	13	12
Joel Hanrahan	R	31	64	0	59.0	66	27	7	51	26	24
Junichi Tazawa	R	27	61	0	80.0	74	30	8	79	39	36
Alfredo Aceves	R	30	51	3	76.3	60	29	8	75	39	36
Brandon Workman	R	24	26	26	126.7	79	41	19	144	77	72
Franklin Morales	L	27	47	4	64.0	61	31	8	59	32	30
Craig Breslow	L	32	63	0	59.3	52	21	6	57	28	26
Rubby de la Rosa	R	24	12	10	51.3	48	27	5	50	27	25
John Lackey	R	34	21	21	127.0	78	45	16	147	79	74
Vicente Padilla	R	35	32	5	48.7	42	14	6	50	25	23
Andrew Miller	L	28	66	0	51.0	64	40	5	41	26	24
Andrew Bailey	R	29	37	0	35.0	32	11	4	34	16	15
Alex Wilson	R	26	34	11	88.3	59	49	10	97	54	50
Daniel Bard	R	28	68	0	66.0	59	41	7	61	35	33
Aaron Cook	R	34	21	20	110.0	42	39	14	135	72	67
Daisuke Matsuzaka	R	32	18	18	87.3	67	42	14	94	57	53
Josh Fields	R	27	37	0	48.0	43	29	5	47	27	25
Drew Naylor	R	27	16	13	82.7	44	26	11	100	54	50
Clayton Mortensen	R	28	50	0	72.7	60	42	10	71	42	39
Mike MacDonald	R	31	20	15	87.0	36	26	10	110	57	53
Chris Hernandez	L	24	25	24	122.7	59	63	16	143	81	76
Brandon Duckworth	R	37	19	15	84.0	46	44	13	100	59	55
Pedro Beato	R	26	50	0	58.0	37	27	8	65	37	35
Drake Britton	L	24	25	24	107.0	73	68	16	121	75	70
Anthony Carter	R	27	44	0	59.0	38	32	9	68	41	38
Tom Cochran	L	30	24	19	97.0	56	68	14	112	72	67
Steven Wright	R	28	29	17	108.0	63	69	18	128	82	77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jon Lester	188.3	813	21.3%	8.5%	.292	3.97	3.91	92	91
Clay Buchholz	147.0	640	15.9%	8.4%	.280	4.16	4.43	97	103
Ryan Dempster	163.0	714	18.6%	7.8%	.296	4.47	4.30	104	100
Felix Doubront	121.7	542	20.5%	9.8%	.304	4.59	4.36	107	101
Allen Webster	129.0	590	14.1%	10.3%	.308	4.88	4.58	114	107
Koji Uehara	39.7	156	31.4%	3.8%	.271	2.72	2.80	63	65
Joel Hanrahan	59.0	255	25.9%	10.6%	.288	3.66	3.90	85	91
Junichi Tazawa	80.0	349	21.2%	8.6%	.306	4.05	3.94	94	92
Alfredo Aceves	76.3	333	18.0%	8.7%	.293	4.24	4.34	99	101
Brandon Workman	126.7	565	14.0%	7.3%	.299	5.12	5.04	119	117
Franklin Morales	64.0	282	21.6%	11.0%	.288	4.22	4.49	98	104
Craig Breslow	59.3	256	20.3%	8.2%	.290	3.94	3.75	92	87
Rubby de la Rosa	51.3	231	20.8%	11.7%	.300	4.38	4.15	102	97
John Lackey	127.0	573	13.6%	7.9%	.309	5.24	4.86	122	113
Vicente Padilla	48.7	210	20.0%	6.7%	.303	4.25	3.98	99	93
Andrew Miller	51.0	234	27.4%	17.1%	.295	4.24	4.41	99	103
Andrew Bailey	35.0	150	21.3%	7.3%	.291	3.86	3.60	90	84
Alex Wilson	88.3	411	14.4%	11.9%	.303	5.09	5.15	119	120
Daniel Bard	66.0	300	19.7%	13.7%	.284	4.50	4.68	105	109
Aaron Cook	110.0	504	8.3%	7.7%	.299	5.48	5.16	128	120
Daisuke Matsuzaka	87.3	398	16.8%	10.6%	.296	5.46	5.34	127	124
Josh Fields	48.0	220	19.5%	13.2%	.300	4.69	4.68	109	109
Drew Naylor	82.7	374	11.8%	7.0%	.309	5.44	4.89	127	114
Clayton Mortensen	72.7	331	18.1%	12.7%	.282	4.83	5.09	112	118
Mike MacDonald	87.0	397	9.1%	6.5%	.313	5.48	4.88	128	114
Chris Hernandez	122.7	574	10.3%	11.0%	.297	5.58	5.62	130	131
Brandon Duckworth	84.0	396	11.6%	11.1%	.303	5.89	5.84	137	136
Pedro Beato	58.0	266	13.9%	10.2%	.298	5.43	5.09	126	118
Drake Britton	107.0	510	14.3%	13.3%	.303	5.89	5.83	137	136
Anthony Carter	59.0	277	13.7%	11.6%	.304	5.80	5.60	135	130
Tom Cochran	97.0	471	11.9%	14.4%	.301	6.22	6.19	145	144
Steven Wright	108.0	521	12.1%	13.2%	.302	6.42	6.29	149	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	WAR	No. 1 Comp
Jon Lester	188.3	8.27	3.30	0.96	110	4.0	Wilson Alvarez
Clay Buchholz	147.0	6.24	3.31	0.98	104	2.8	John Denny
Ryan Dempster	163.0	7.34	3.09	1.16	97	2.4	Steve Renko
Felix Doubront	121.7	8.21	3.92	1.11	95	1.6	Sebern Wright
Allen Webster	129.0	5.79	4.26	0.77	89	1.3	Mike Torrez
Koji Uehara	39.7	11.11	1.36	1.13	160	1.1	Dennis Eckersley
Joel Hanrahan	59.0	10.07	4.12	1.07	119	1.0	Ryne Duren
Junichi Tazawa	80.0	8.33	3.38	0.90	107	1.0	Bert Roberge
Alfredo Aceves	76.3	7.08	3.42	0.94	102	0.9	Mike Cather
Brandon Workman	126.7	5.61	2.91	1.35	85	0.9	Mike Thurman
Franklin Morales	64.0	8.58	4.36	1.13	103	0.8	Ron Villone
Craig Breslow	59.3	7.89	3.19	0.91	110	0.8	Alan Embree
Rubby de la Rosa	51.3	8.42	4.74	0.88	99	0.8	Jack Armstrong
John Lackey	127.0	5.53	3.19	1.13	83	0.7	Aaron Sele
Vicente Padilla	48.7	7.76	2.59	1.11	102	0.7	Dave Pavlas
Andrew Miller	51.0	11.29	7.06	0.88	103	0.5	Armando Almanza
Andrew Bailey	35.0	8.23	2.83	1.03	113	0.5	Doug Henry
Alex Wilson	88.3	6.01	4.99	1.02	85	0.5	Mike Timlin
Daniel Bard	66.0	8.05	5.59	0.95	97	0.5	Bart Miadich
Aaron Cook	110.0	3.44	3.19	1.15	79	0.3	Aaron Sele
Daisuke Matsuzaka	87.3	6.91	4.33	1.44	80	0.2	Chan Ho Park
Josh Fields	48.0	8.06	5.44	0.94	93	0.2	Bob Gibson
Drew Naylor	82.7	4.79	2.83	1.20	80	0.2	Mark Johnson
Clayton Mortensen	72.7	7.43	5.20	1.24	90	0.2	Scott Cassidy
Mike MacDonald	87.0	3.72	2.69	1.03	79	0.2	Steve Comer
Chris Hernandez	122.7	4.33	4.62	1.17	78	0.2	Scott Forster
Brandon Duckworth	84.0	4.93	4.71	1.39	74	-0.2	Ed Riley
Pedro Beato	58.0	5.74	4.19	1.24	80	-0.2	Rick Berg
Drake Britton	107.0	6.14	5.72	1.35	74	-0.3	Rafael Roque
Anthony Carter	59.0	5.80	4.88	1.37	75	-0.5	Jared Camp
Tom Cochran	97.0	5.20	6.31	1.30	70	-0.6	Eric DuBose
Steven Wright	108.0	5.25	5.75	1.50	68	-1.0	Michael Johnson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.09 ERA and the NL having a 3.92 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected WAR.