2015 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
For a club that was compelled to trade some useful major-league pieces this offseason, the Cincinnati Reds feature a remarkably competent and seemingly competitive group of hitters. Depending on how one chooses to determine such a thing, the star of team (per ZiPS) is either Todd Frazier (605 PA, 3.6 WAR) or Joey Votto (468 PA, 3.4 WAR) — the former for his overall WAR projection; the latter, for his projected WAR per plate appearance. It’s not surprising to find something less than full complement of games forecast for Votto: two of his last three seasons have been interrupted by injury.

So far as weak links, however, there’s little to be found among Cincinnati’s starting eight field players. The batting projections for Zack Cozart (.282 wOBA), Billy Hamilton (.310 wOBA), and Brandon Phillips (.303 wOBA) are all below average, but each of those players is also projected to save five or more runs at a position already on the more challenging side of the defensive spectrum.

Pitchers
Right-hander Johnny Cueto recorded just over 243 innings last year, rendering him and David Price (who threw 248) the first two pitchers to cross that particular (and somewhat arbitrary) threshold since James Shields and Justin Verlander did it in 2011. Like all swords, the metaphorical one concerning a pitcher who’s sustained a heavy workload is double-edged. On the one hand, it’s an indication that he’s capable of sustaining a heavy workload; on the other, the act of having sustained a heavy workload raises obvious questions about his future health. In this case, ZiPS doesn’t project a repeat performance. Indeed, Cueto’s 181.1-inning forecast isn’t even the largest on his own team.

In 2014, for the sixth consecutive season, Cueto produced a markedly better ERA than FIP — and produced a better runs-based WAR than FIP-based one. ZiPS does call for this trend to continue: the 10-point gap between Cueto’s ERA and FIP index figures (76 ERA-, 86 FIP-) is among the largest — if not the largest — ZiPS has projected.

Bench/Prospects
Acquired in the trade that sent Alfredo Simon to Detroit, infielder Eugenio Suarez features the best projection (567 PA, 2.2 WAR) among those players unlikely to be included in the club’s opening-day lineup. The club’s top hitting prospect, Jesse Winker, is forecast to produce a league-average batting line already (or the equivalent in the minor leagues). Michael Lorenzen (81.1 IP, 0.1 WAR) and Robert Stephenson (119.1, -0.6 WAR) are the team’s top-two pitching prospects according to Kiley McDaniel, but neither is projected to provide much assistance to the major-league club, yet. Right-hander Josh Smith (148.0 IP, 0.5 WAR) features the top forecast among rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Reds Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Todd Frazier R 29 3B 605 80 141 26 3 25 84 13 6
Joey Votto L 31 1B 468 61 104 24 1 15 51 4 3
Billy Hamilton B 24 CF 621 82 149 24 9 6 51 63 18
Devin Mesoraco R 27 C 401 49 91 20 0 18 63 1 2
Jay Bruce L 28 RF 615 87 140 30 2 28 95 10 3
Marlon Byrd R 37 RF 563 74 142 26 3 26 91 2 3
Eugenio Suarez R 23 SS 567 62 127 25 4 13 50 10 8
Brandon Phillips R 34 2B 569 66 138 25 1 13 72 6 4
Zack Cozart R 29 SS 570 66 129 26 4 9 48 5 0
Tucker Barnhart B 24 C 392 37 85 14 3 4 31 1 1
Ramon Cabrera B 25 C 499 47 117 23 2 4 41 2 1
Ivan DeJesus R 28 SS 431 44 97 17 3 5 39 3 2
Jesse Winker L 21 LF 433 59 93 17 2 16 55 4 1
Kristopher Negron R 29 SS 394 41 78 16 3 8 35 11 2
Jermaine Curtis R 27 3B 385 39 83 12 1 2 26 5 1
Brayan Pena B 33 C 291 21 70 13 1 4 26 1 2
Ryan LaMarre R 26 CF 354 36 75 11 2 5 27 15 8
Chad Wallach R 23 C 389 46 76 16 1 4 33 2 0
Josh Satin R 30 3B 506 58 106 22 1 10 48 1 3
Neftali Soto R 26 3B 452 47 101 21 0 12 50 1 1
Ruben Gotay B 32 2B 506 58 103 16 1 12 46 5 3
Lou Marson R 29 C 99 11 18 3 1 0 4 2 1
Jack Hannahan L 35 3B 181 15 36 7 1 2 15 0 1
Juan Silva L 24 RF 403 46 85 14 3 5 33 23 14
Brennan Boesch L 30 RF 389 45 90 17 3 16 48 6 2
Kyle Skipworth L 25 C 322 35 58 10 2 13 36 1 2
Corky Miller R 39 C 105 8 20 5 0 2 10 0 0
Kyle Waldrop L 23 RF 563 66 135 26 4 13 58 13 7
Yorman Rodriguez R 22 CF 564 65 125 23 5 10 52 9 5
Jason Bourgeois R 33 CF 463 51 107 14 3 3 33 16 7
Donald Lutz L 26 LF 408 44 85 17 3 12 47 5 2
Felix Perez L 30 RF 479 50 108 23 2 9 49 2 3
Marquez Smith R 30 1B 424 51 87 18 2 10 44 1 0
Juan Duran R 23 RF 437 51 89 15 2 18 54 3 5
Skip Schumaker L 35 2B 308 28 68 13 1 2 27 2 1
Irving Falu B 32 2B 434 39 98 12 3 3 28 11 8
Thomas Neal R 27 1B 405 47 91 16 1 6 36 4 3
Ray Chang R 31 2B 249 22 53 9 0 1 17 1 2
Steve Selsky R 25 LF 446 47 93 15 2 5 36 6 4
Hernan Iribarren L 31 LF 320 28 65 9 2 2 20 6 2
Mike Costanzo L 31 1B 318 32 56 11 1 9 30 1 2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Todd Frazier 605 7.6% 21.3% .196 .293 .258 .323 .454 .340
Joey Votto 468 18.6% 20.1% .190 .332 .279 .417 .469 .377
Billy Hamilton 621 6.9% 20.6% .106 .327 .262 .314 .368 .310
Devin Mesoraco 401 8.5% 20.7% .207 .281 .255 .327 .462 .339
Jay Bruce 615 9.3% 26.8% .215 .310 .255 .326 .470 .340
Marlon Byrd 563 5.0% 28.2% .210 .338 .271 .314 .481 .340
Eugenio Suarez 567 7.1% 22.8% .140 .306 .248 .311 .388 .307
Brandon Phillips 569 5.1% 13.9% .126 .285 .263 .307 .389 .303
Zack Cozart 570 4.7% 16.1% .115 .278 .244 .284 .359 .282
Tucker Barnhart 392 7.7% 18.4% .091 .288 .240 .299 .331 .278
Ramon Cabrera 499 6.8% 12.0% .085 .283 .254 .305 .339 .287
Ivan DeJesus 431 7.2% 22.0% .097 .311 .247 .303 .344 .288
Jesse Winker 433 9.9% 25.9% .179 .296 .241 .319 .420 .329
Kristopher Negron 394 5.1% 27.4% .127 .283 .216 .267 .343 .273
Jermaine Curtis 385 9.9% 13.0% .060 .286 .249 .340 .309 .298
Brayan Pena 291 4.1% 10.7% .099 .273 .255 .286 .354 .278
Ryan LaMarre 354 7.1% 26.6% .094 .315 .235 .299 .329 .282
Chad Wallach 389 8.7% 18.3% .087 .262 .218 .294 .305 .272
Josh Satin 506 10.9% 24.5% .121 .305 .238 .322 .359 .304
Neftali Soto 452 4.9% 23.5% .135 .288 .238 .279 .373 .287
Ruben Gotay 506 8.5% 25.1% .118 .282 .224 .291 .342 .283
Lou Marson 99 14.1% 21.2% .060 .286 .214 .327 .274 .279
Jack Hannahan 181 8.8% 23.8% .093 .288 .222 .294 .315 .269
Juan Silva 403 10.7% 26.1% .099 .325 .240 .324 .339 .296
Brennan Boesch 389 5.7% 20.8% .196 .276 .249 .293 .445 .322
Kyle Skipworth 322 5.6% 37.6% .177 .273 .195 .252 .372 .273
Corky Miller 105 5.7% 22.9% .114 .250 .206 .257 .320 .258
Kyle Waldrop 563 4.6% 24.5% .137 .319 .255 .290 .392 .299
Yorman Rodriguez 564 6.2% 30.7% .120 .335 .239 .288 .359 .286
Jason Bourgeois 463 4.8% 10.8% .067 .271 .246 .283 .313 .266
Donald Lutz 408 5.1% 32.4% .155 .307 .223 .272 .378 .286
Felix Perez 479 4.0% 20.5% .120 .285 .239 .275 .359 .277
Marquez Smith 424 8.0% 24.8% .137 .286 .228 .298 .365 .293
Juan Duran 437 5.9% 40.5% .178 .330 .218 .265 .396 .289
Skip Schumaker 308 7.5% 16.6% .075 .291 .244 .305 .319 .278
Irving Falu 434 5.3% 10.6% .067 .270 .246 .285 .313 .259
Thomas Neal 405 5.9% 21.0% .097 .301 .245 .302 .342 .287
Ray Chang 249 5.2% 18.1% .052 .280 .229 .275 .281 .249
Steve Selsky 446 7.2% 29.6% .085 .330 .233 .301 .318 .278
Hernan Iribarren 320 6.6% 20.0% .066 .275 .223 .274 .289 .251
Mike Costanzo 318 8.8% 35.5% .139 .281 .195 .267 .334 .267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Todd Frazier 605 5.4 110 3 3.6 Brandon Inge
Joey Votto 468 7.3 142 3 3.4 Keith Hernandez
Billy Hamilton 621 4.8 86 9 2.9 Milt Cuyler
Devin Mesoraco 401 5.4 113 0 2.9 Chris Hoiles
Jay Bruce 615 5.6 115 0 2.4 Paul O’Neill
Marlon Byrd 563 5.5 114 3 2.3 Mike Easler
Eugenio Suarez 567 4.2 90 2 2.2 Ron Wotus
Brandon Phillips 569 4.3 89 5 1.9 Cookie Rojas
Zack Cozart 570 3.7 75 8 1.8 Adam Everett
Tucker Barnhart 392 3.5 72 7 1.6 Gregg Zaun
Ramon Cabrera 499 3.8 76 -5 0.8 Cody Mckay
Ivan DeJesus 431 3.7 77 -1 0.8 Eddie Leon
Jesse Winker 433 4.8 100 -4 0.7 Nick Weglarz
Kristopher Negron 394 3.4 66 3 0.6 Jake Wald
Jermaine Curtis 385 3.9 80 -2 0.6 Paul Schaal
Brayan Pena 291 3.6 74 -1 0.4 Steven Norris
Ryan LaMarre 354 3.4 72 1 0.4 Vernon Thomas
Chad Wallach 389 3.2 65 -3 0.3 Brian Moon
Josh Satin 506 4.0 86 -9 0.2 Craig Worthington
Neftali Soto 452 3.7 77 -2 0.1 Eric Hardgrave
Ruben Gotay 506 3.4 73 -2 0.0 Webster Garrison
Lou Marson 99 3.1 67 -3 -0.1 Erik Pappas
Jack Hannahan 181 3.1 67 0 -0.1 Jeff Branson
Juan Silva 403 3.8 82 -1 -0.1 Mike Neill
Brennan Boesch 389 4.7 99 -9 -0.2 Mark Saccomanno
Kyle Skipworth 322 3.0 68 -6 -0.2 Gary Tremblay
Corky Miller 105 2.8 57 -2 -0.2 Tony Pena
Kyle Waldrop 563 4.1 85 -4 -0.3 Francisco Batista
Yorman Rodriguez 564 3.6 76 -8 -0.4 Xavier Paul
Jason Bourgeois 463 3.2 63 -1 -0.5 Doug Glanville
Donald Lutz 408 3.6 76 -1 -0.5 Justin Bowles
Felix Perez 479 3.4 72 3 -0.5 Tommy Davis
Marquez Smith 424 3.8 81 -1 -0.5 Thomas Hubbard
Juan Duran 437 3.5 78 -1 -0.5 Chris Hatcher
Skip Schumaker 308 3.5 71 -6 -0.5 Ron Oester
Irving Falu 434 3.1 64 -2 -0.6 Edgar Caceres
Thomas Neal 405 3.6 76 0 -0.7 Mike Eylward
Ray Chang 249 2.6 53 -2 -0.7 Gary Green
Steve Selsky 446 3.3 70 -1 -0.8 Vernon Thomas
Hernan Iribarren 320 2.8 55 0 -1.1 Marc Sagmoen
Mike Costanzo 318 2.9 64 -3 -1.4 Ryan McGuire

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Johnny Cueto R 29 27 27 181.3 163 46 17 150 62 58
Homer Bailey R 29 27 27 172.7 150 46 19 159 73 68
Mike Leake R 27 31 31 194.3 136 45 23 197 91 85
Aroldis Chapman L 27 64 0 63.0 112 26 5 34 13 12
Tony Cingrani L 25 21 19 104.0 112 49 15 90 49 46
Anthony DeSclafani R 25 30 24 127.3 98 37 18 130 67 63
Josh Smith R 27 26 25 148.0 108 60 20 150 81 76
Burke Badenhop R 32 65 0 64.0 43 15 6 62 27 25
Sam LeCure R 31 57 0 56.7 54 22 6 51 25 23
Jumbo Diaz R 31 58 0 58.3 56 24 6 52 26 24
Carlos Contreras R 24 27 12 74.3 66 46 8 68 40 37
J.J. Hoover R 27 60 0 64.0 72 28 9 53 29 27
Sean Marshall L 32 29 0 25.7 27 10 3 23 11 10
Manny Parra L 32 54 0 45.0 45 19 5 40 20 19
Jon Moscot R 23 26 26 147.7 107 49 24 153 85 79
Jose Mijares L 30 52 0 42.3 41 16 4 40 19 18
Michael Lorenzen R 23 24 16 81.3 57 34 12 83 46 43
Ryan Dennick L 28 67 0 54.3 45 22 6 51 26 24
Jose Cisnero R 26 24 0 37.7 37 17 5 34 18 17
Matt Magill R 25 30 18 102.7 93 69 13 95 59 55
Donovan Hand R 29 46 6 86.3 59 27 12 89 46 43
David Holmberg L 23 25 23 129.7 79 53 19 137 76 71
Wilmer Font R 25 45 0 42.3 42 26 5 37 21 20
Edgar Gonzalez R 32 16 8 54.7 34 15 9 59 32 30
Matt Maloney L 31 9 2 19.7 10 4 3 22 12 11
Pedro Villarreal R 27 39 14 107.0 70 36 15 113 61 57
Logan Ondrusek R 30 52 0 52.7 47 21 7 51 27 25
Dylan Axelrod R 29 28 22 132.3 96 46 22 141 78 73
Nate Adcock R 27 26 10 78.3 46 35 11 82 46 43
Trevor Bell R 28 14 3 23.3 15 13 4 25 15 14
Carlos Marmol R 32 39 0 37.0 46 27 6 31 20 19
Scott Diamond L 28 27 25 150.3 73 37 25 168 90 84
Jonathon Crawford R 23 18 18 76.3 47 42 10 79 47 44
Jason Marquis R 36 14 14 80.0 54 32 16 85 50 47
Raisel Iglesias R 25 23 2 60.3 52 39 8 57 35 33
Adam Russell R 32 34 0 44.0 35 31 5 42 26 24
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 32 31 2 45.7 32 23 7 47 28 26
Nick Travieso R 21 22 22 109.0 72 47 18 116 68 64
Robert Stephenson R 22 24 24 119.3 115 62 24 116 75 70
Tim Crabbe R 27 28 19 113.7 76 56 18 121 72 67
Fabio Castillo R 26 38 2 67.0 50 40 9 67 41 38
Nick Christiani R 27 45 0 55.7 31 28 8 60 34 32
Amir Garrett L 23 21 21 95.7 69 52 17 101 64 60
Chad Reineke R 33 18 13 78.3 43 31 18 93 59 55
Keyvius Sampson R 24 33 18 101.0 93 70 22 101 73 68
Ismael Guillon L 23 25 23 107.3 92 84 23 111 82 77
Daniel Corcino R 24 29 26 139.7 100 84 32 151 106 99

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Johnny Cueto 181.3 740 22.0% 6.2% .264 2.88 3.25 76 86
Homer Bailey 172.7 723 20.7% 6.4% .280 3.54 3.53 93 93
Mike Leake 194.3 825 16.5% 5.5% .284 3.94 3.85 104 102
Aroldis Chapman 63.0 249 45.0% 10.4% .282 1.71 1.79 45 47
Tony Cingrani 104.0 451 24.8% 10.9% .277 3.98 4.16 105 110
Anthony DeSclafani 127.3 549 17.9% 6.7% .289 4.45 4.30 117 113
Josh Smith 148.0 654 16.5% 9.2% .284 4.62 4.59 122 121
Burke Badenhop 64.0 269 16.0% 5.6% .275 3.52 3.33 93 88
Sam LeCure 56.7 243 22.2% 9.0% .283 3.65 3.63 96 96
Jumbo Diaz 58.3 251 22.3% 9.6% .282 3.70 3.49 98 92
Carlos Contreras 74.3 337 19.6% 13.7% .282 4.48 4.54 118 120
J.J. Hoover 64.0 273 26.4% 10.3% .272 3.80 3.78 100 100
Sean Marshall 25.7 110 24.5% 9.1% .294 3.51 3.75 93 99
Manny Parra 45.0 194 23.2% 9.8% .282 3.80 3.65 100 96
Jon Moscot 147.7 645 16.6% 7.6% .282 4.81 4.72 127 125
Jose Mijares 42.3 183 22.4% 8.7% .303 3.83 3.36 101 89
Michael Lorenzen 81.3 361 15.8% 9.4% .280 4.76 4.86 126 128
Ryan Dennick 54.3 236 19.1% 9.3% .280 3.98 3.99 105 105
Jose Cisnero 37.7 164 22.5% 10.4% .279 4.06 3.97 107 105
Matt Magill 102.7 472 19.7% 14.6% .282 4.82 4.93 127 130
Donovan Hand 86.3 375 15.7% 7.2% .283 4.48 4.42 118 117
David Holmberg 129.7 579 13.6% 9.2% .282 4.93 5.01 130 132
Wilmer Font 42.3 190 22.1% 13.7% .281 4.25 4.47 112 118
Edgar Gonzalez 54.7 238 14.3% 6.3% .282 4.94 4.82 130 127
Matt Maloney 19.7 85 11.8% 4.7% .283 5.03 4.66 133 123
Pedro Villarreal 107.0 470 14.9% 7.7% .287 4.79 4.63 126 122
Logan Ondrusek 52.7 230 20.4% 9.1% .286 4.27 4.02 113 106
Dylan Axelrod 132.3 584 16.4% 7.9% .288 4.96 4.80 131 127
Nate Adcock 78.3 352 13.1% 9.9% .279 4.94 5.12 130 135
Trevor Bell 23.3 108 13.9% 12.0% .284 5.40 5.81 143 153
Carlos Marmol 37.0 169 27.2% 16.0% .284 4.62 4.75 122 125
Scott Diamond 150.3 656 11.1% 5.6% .277 5.03 4.91 133 130
Jonathon Crawford 76.3 350 13.4% 12.0% .281 5.19 5.26 137 139
Jason Marquis 80.0 357 15.1% 9.0% .274 5.29 5.46 140 144
Raisel Iglesias 60.3 277 18.8% 14.1% .277 4.92 4.83 130 127
Adam Russell 44.0 205 17.1% 15.1% .282 4.91 4.94 130 130
Ryan Rowland-Smith 45.7 207 15.5% 11.1% .281 5.12 5.17 135 136
Nick Travieso 109.0 490 14.7% 9.6% .283 5.28 5.25 139 139
Robert Stephenson 119.3 536 21.5% 11.6% .281 5.28 5.36 139 142
Tim Crabbe 113.7 518 14.7% 10.8% .286 5.30 5.32 140 140
Fabio Castillo 67.0 308 16.2% 13.0% .283 5.10 5.12 135 135
Nick Christiani 55.7 255 12.2% 11.0% .282 5.17 5.20 137 137
Amir Garrett 95.7 440 15.7% 11.8% .284 5.64 5.62 149 148
Chad Reineke 78.3 359 12.0% 8.6% .287 6.32 6.21 167 164
Keyvius Sampson 101.0 474 19.6% 14.8% .280 6.06 6.19 160 163
Ismael Guillon 107.3 517 17.8% 16.3% .284 6.46 6.58 171 174
Daniel Corcino 139.7 654 15.3% 12.8% .277 6.38 6.46 168 171

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Johnny Cueto 181.3 8.09 2.28 0.84 133 4.8 Ben McDonald
Homer Bailey 172.7 7.82 2.40 0.99 108 3.0 Kris Benson
Mike Leake 194.3 6.30 2.08 1.07 97 2.4 Lary Sorensen
Aroldis Chapman 63.0 16.00 3.71 0.71 224 1.9 Billy Wagner
Tony Cingrani 104.0 9.69 4.24 1.30 96 1.2 Oliver Perez
Anthony DeSclafani 127.3 6.93 2.62 1.27 86 0.7 Chien-Ming Wang
Josh Smith 148.0 6.57 3.65 1.22 83 0.5 Jeremy Guthrie
Burke Badenhop 64.0 6.05 2.11 0.84 109 0.5 Ron Taylor
Sam LeCure 56.7 8.57 3.49 0.95 105 0.3 David Holdridge
Jumbo Diaz 58.3 8.64 3.70 0.93 104 0.3 David Holdridge
Carlos Contreras 74.3 7.99 5.57 0.97 86 0.3 Ricky Stone
J.J. Hoover 64.0 10.13 3.94 1.27 101 0.2 Bo Donaldson
Sean Marshall 25.7 9.46 3.50 1.05 109 0.2 Mike Munoz
Manny Parra 45.0 9.00 3.80 1.00 101 0.2 Eddie Oropesa
Jon Moscot 147.7 6.52 2.99 1.46 80 0.2 Bronson Arroyo
Jose Mijares 42.3 8.72 3.40 0.85 100 0.1 Jeff Kaiser
Michael Lorenzen 81.3 6.31 3.76 1.33 81 0.1 Ryan Houston
Ryan Dennick 54.3 7.46 3.65 0.99 96 0.1 Javier Lopez
Jose Cisnero 37.7 8.83 4.06 1.19 94 0.0 Santiago Casilla
Matt Magill 102.7 8.15 6.05 1.14 80 0.0 Kevin Coffman
Donovan Hand 86.3 6.15 2.82 1.25 86 0.0 Dale Mohorcic
David Holmberg 129.7 5.48 3.68 1.32 78 -0.1 Kris Detmers
Wilmer Font 42.3 8.94 5.53 1.06 90 -0.1 Josh Banks
Edgar Gonzalez 54.7 5.59 2.47 1.48 78 -0.1 Sam Arrington
Matt Maloney 19.7 4.57 1.83 1.37 76 -0.1 Johnny Gee
Pedro Villarreal 107.0 5.89 3.03 1.26 80 -0.1 Vicente Bonilla
Logan Ondrusek 52.7 8.03 3.59 1.20 90 -0.1 Bo Donaldson
Dylan Axelrod 132.3 6.53 3.13 1.50 77 -0.2 Kip Bouknight
Nate Adcock 78.3 5.29 4.02 1.26 78 -0.2 Gerrit Simpson
Trevor Bell 23.3 5.79 5.02 1.55 71 -0.2 Gary Neibauer
Carlos Marmol 37.0 11.19 6.57 1.46 83 -0.3 Archie Corbin
Scott Diamond 150.3 4.37 2.22 1.50 76 -0.3 Scott Downs
Jonathon Crawford 76.3 5.54 4.95 1.18 74 -0.3 Kevin Hodges
Jason Marquis 80.0 6.08 3.60 1.80 73 -0.4 Scott Erickson
Raisel Iglesias 60.3 7.76 5.82 1.19 78 -0.4 Edwardo Sierra
Adam Russell 44.0 7.16 6.34 1.02 78 -0.5 Jerry Johnson
Ryan Rowland-Smith 45.7 6.30 4.53 1.38 75 -0.5 Dan Smith
Nick Travieso 109.0 5.94 3.88 1.49 73 -0.5 Ryan Glynn
Robert Stephenson 119.3 8.68 4.68 1.81 73 -0.6 Matt Peterson
Tim Crabbe 113.7 6.02 4.43 1.42 72 -0.7 Jose Segura
Fabio Castillo 67.0 6.72 5.37 1.21 75 -0.7 Ramser Correa
Nick Christiani 55.7 5.01 4.52 1.29 74 -0.8 Mario Ramos
Amir Garrett 95.7 6.49 4.89 1.60 68 -0.9 Alberto Arias
Chad Reineke 78.3 4.94 3.56 2.07 61 -1.5 Alan Benes
Keyvius Sampson 101.0 8.29 6.24 1.96 63 -1.7 Rob Radlosky
Ismael Guillon 107.3 7.72 7.05 1.93 59 -2.2 Bill Murphy
Daniel Corcino 139.7 6.44 5.41 2.06 60 -2.7 Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Dave
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Dave

Whoa! Aroldis Chapman! 224 ERA+! (Head spinning)

ftfy
Guest
ftfy

Whoa! Aroldis Chapman! 45 ERA-! (Head spinning)