2015 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
This is a strong and curiously diverse Dodgers team. Among even just the starting eight one finds young stars (Yasiel Puig) and older stars (Adrian Gonzalez); stars who’ve aged surprisingly well (Jimmy Rollins) and stars who’ve aged less well (Carl Crawford); veterans who probably merit greater acclaim (Howie Kendrick) and also whatever Juan Uribe is. While diverse, the starters are uniform by one standard — namely, the likelihood that they’ll produce wins at an average rate or better.

Of some interest is the (likely) platoon in left field of Crawford and Scott Van Slyke. The latter, despite a huge body, has produced slightly above-average fielding numbers in the corner outfield and is projected to do so again in 2015. It’s with some combination of great vengeance and furious anger, as well, that he has punished left-handed pitchers, recording a 151 wRC+ over about 200 career plate appearances against them. No player — in particular, no player who lost his rookie eligibility as a 26-year-old — ought really to be expected to continue hitting at a rate 50% better than league average. His success against lefties, however, at least helps to explain how ZiPS forecasts him to produce the second-highest wOBA on the club.

Pitchers
Many projections would prove difficult to calculate manually. One must account for changes in home park, minor-league data, partial seasons, whatever. Less difficult to calculate manually, one assumes, is Clayton Kershaw’s projection. Over the last four years — in each of which he’s recorded at least 198 innings — the lowest strikeout rate he’s produced is 25.0%; the highest walk rate, 7.0%. Those are essentially his baselines for the time being.

Of probably greater note is how ZiPS has contended both with Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy. In the case of the latter, it’s no surprise to find a conservative innings projection. The latter, meanwhile, is expected to retain almost all of the improvements featured in his strikeout rate. What else he’s expected to retain, however, is the large-ish difference between his FIP and ERA — which hurts his projected WAR total as a result.

Bench/Prospects
Joc Pederson has played 18 games ever in the majors. Joc Pederson is expected, also, to produce the third-most wins among Dodger batters. It’s not a typical arrangement, that, but also likely the product of the Dodgers’ outfield glut over the last couple years. Without it, Pederson almost certainly wouldn’t be entering the 2015 season with his rookie-eligibility intact. Also notable among Dodgers prospects is how two of them, Austin Barnes and Enrique Hernandez, both (a) are projected to produce a 2.0 WAR or better and also (b) were acquired in the deal that sent Dee Gordon and Dan Haren to Miami. No ZiPS projection exists for Gordon yet, but Steamer forecasts him to record merely a 1.0 WAR in 661 plate appearances.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Dodgers Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Yasiel Puig R 24 RF 656 102 169 35 8 22 85 15 9
Howie Kendrick R 31 2B 609 72 163 29 5 11 73 12 5
Joc Pederson L 23 CF 573 80 120 17 4 22 73 20 8
Adrian Gonzalez L 33 1B 642 76 161 34 1 22 111 1 0
Yasmani Grandal B 26 C 381 51 80 17 1 13 55 1 0
Jimmy Rollins B 36 SS 585 74 129 24 3 14 56 21 6
Scott Van Slyke R 28 LF 388 49 89 20 1 14 52 6 3
Juan Uribe R 36 3B 343 33 84 16 1 8 48 1 1
Austin Barnes R 25 C 542 63 116 20 3 9 54 6 2
Enrique Hernandez R 23 2B 552 63 130 24 5 12 60 5 4
Alex Guerrero R 28 2B 527 64 122 19 3 15 69 2 3
A.J. Ellis R 34 C 393 34 76 14 1 7 45 0 1
Justin Turner R 30 3B 319 36 84 18 1 5 37 4 1
Corey Seager L 21 SS 519 61 116 26 3 16 69 6 3
Darwin Barney R 29 2B 456 46 98 21 2 6 44 4 1
Carl Crawford L 33 LF 385 55 100 17 4 7 45 15 5
Andre Ethier L 33 RF 472 50 109 23 3 9 61 2 2
Kyle Farmer R 24 C 345 32 81 16 2 2 32 6 3
Miguel Olivo R 36 C 228 25 49 9 2 10 31 2 2
Chris Heisey R 30 LF 308 38 68 14 2 8 31 6 2
Daniel Mayora R 29 3B 567 58 129 21 2 6 52 6 4
Scott Schebler L 24 LF 567 68 120 21 8 17 71 9 5
Darnell Sweeney B 24 2B 542 60 113 22 5 10 55 18 13
Chone Figgins B 37 3B 164 15 30 5 1 0 6 6 3
Alex Liddi R 26 3B 463 54 92 18 3 14 54 6 4
Brendan Harris R 34 3B 221 22 45 9 1 4 19 0 1
Ryan Adams R 28 2B 292 27 62 15 1 4 26 2 2
Angel Sanchez R 31 SS 247 24 52 7 1 2 20 1 1
Jeremy Hazelbaker L 27 RF 476 46 99 13 5 10 45 24 8
Mike Baxter L 30 RF 375 41 76 16 5 4 31 7 4
O’Koyea Dickson R 25 1B 518 58 114 24 2 13 61 5 5
J.C. Boscan R 35 C 200 15 35 7 0 1 12 1 0
Brian Cavazos-Galvez R 28 RF 352 36 80 14 2 7 37 7 4
Erisbel Arruebarrena R 25 SS 336 28 57 9 2 6 30 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Yasiel Puig 656 9.5% 20.3% .203 .346 .293 .373 .496 .376
Howie Kendrick 609 5.9% 15.9% .128 .333 .291 .337 .419 .328
Joc Pederson 573 11.0% 29.7% .181 .314 .239 .327 .420 .333
Adrian Gonzalez 642 7.8% 16.5% .175 .302 .278 .333 .453 .337
Yasmani Grandal 381 12.3% 24.7% .177 .298 .244 .339 .421 .335
Jimmy Rollins 585 8.2% 14.7% .136 .265 .243 .305 .379 .304
Scott Van Slyke 388 10.8% 26.3% .188 .332 .263 .348 .451 .352
Juan Uribe 343 4.7% 20.1% .130 .308 .261 .298 .391 .300
Austin Barnes 542 7.7% 17.2% .109 .276 .238 .305 .347 .292
Enrique Hernandez 552 6.2% 12.7% .138 .275 .256 .306 .394 .306
Alex Guerrero 527 6.6% 16.3% .145 .279 .253 .312 .398 .314
A.J. Ellis 393 12.5% 18.6% .111 .271 .230 .334 .341 .296
Justin Turner 319 6.6% 15.7% .120 .333 .290 .346 .410 .335
Corey Seager 519 6.2% 27.7% .166 .310 .242 .292 .408 .307
Darwin Barney 456 6.4% 12.3% .104 .258 .236 .291 .340 .276
Carl Crawford 385 4.7% 15.6% .128 .314 .278 .317 .406 .320
Andre Ethier 472 9.1% 19.1% .133 .309 .259 .335 .392 .316
Kyle Farmer 345 3.8% 17.4% .080 .298 .250 .285 .330 .274
Miguel Olivo 228 3.1% 31.6% .197 .285 .225 .254 .422 .294
Chris Heisey 308 4.2% 21.4% .147 .282 .239 .280 .386 .292
Daniel Mayora 567 5.1% 17.3% .082 .289 .246 .290 .328 .274
Scott Schebler 567 4.9% 27.7% .168 .294 .230 .285 .398 .299
Darnell Sweeney 542 7.0% 28.0% .126 .310 .231 .289 .357 .282
Chone Figgins 164 13.4% 18.3% .051 .275 .217 .327 .268 .273
Alex Liddi 463 5.8% 34.1% .154 .301 .214 .265 .368 .278
Brendan Harris 221 7.7% 16.3% .116 .255 .226 .291 .342 .281
Ryan Adams 292 5.8% 27.4% .107 .310 .230 .282 .337 .275
Angel Sanchez 247 5.7% 14.2% .066 .260 .229 .275 .295 .250
Jeremy Hazelbaker 476 5.5% 30.7% .120 .311 .225 .270 .345 .273
Mike Baxter 375 7.7% 21.3% .112 .282 .226 .297 .338 .283
O’Koyea Dickson 518 5.0% 18.5% .141 .272 .239 .292 .380 .295
J.C. Boscan 200 5.0% 26.5% .054 .256 .187 .236 .241 .215
Brian Cavazos-Galvez 352 2.3% 18.8% .115 .274 .237 .262 .352 .269
Erisbel Arruebarrena 336 4.5% 42.0% .099 .300 .183 .222 .282 .221

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Yasiel Puig 656 7.0 143 2 5.1 Al Kaline
Howie Kendrick 609 5.4 112 3 3.7 Julio Franco
Joc Pederson 573 5.0 109 2 3.3 Colby Rasmus
Adrian Gonzalez 642 5.7 120 8 3.1 Fred McGriff
Yasmani Grandal 381 5.1 113 -1 2.8 Mark Bailey
Jimmy Rollins 585 4.3 92 -1 2.3 Omar Vizquel
Scott Van Slyke 388 5.8 124 2 2.3 Ryan Church
Juan Uribe 343 4.2 93 12 2.2 Vern Stephens
Austin Barnes 542 3.8 84 0 2.2 Gregg Zaun
Enrique Hernandez 552 4.3 96 2 2.0 Pete Rose Jr.
Alex Guerrero 527 4.4 99 -2 1.8 Jose Castro
A.J. Ellis 393 3.9 92 -1 1.7 Chris Cannizzaro
Justin Turner 319 5.5 113 -2 1.7 Jeff Cirillo
Corey Seager 519 4.2 95 -6 1.6 Jeff Blauser
Darwin Barney 456 3.6 78 7 1.3 Stu Cole
Carl Crawford 385 5.0 102 2 1.2 Bake McBride
Andre Ethier 472 4.7 105 -1 1.1 Sam West
Kyle Farmer 345 3.4 73 -1 0.7 Pat Dempsey
Miguel Olivo 228 3.6 87 -2 0.6 Joe Oliver
Chris Heisey 308 3.9 86 4 0.5 Fletcher Bates
Daniel Mayora 567 3.4 74 0 0.4 Steve Springer
Scott Schebler 567 4.0 91 -2 0.4 Tyler Colvin
Darnell Sweeney 542 3.5 81 -5 0.2 Buddy Biancalana
Chone Figgins 164 3.0 71 0 0.1 Craig Counsell
Alex Liddi 463 3.3 76 -3 0.1 Blake Whealy
Brendan Harris 221 3.4 78 -2 0.0 Jason Wood
Ryan Adams 292 3.3 74 -2 -0.1 Frank Kremblas
Angel Sanchez 247 2.8 61 -2 -0.2 Gary Green
Jeremy Hazelbaker 476 3.4 72 1 -0.4 Jalal Leach
Mike Baxter 375 3.5 79 -2 -0.4 Jarvis Brown
O’Koyea Dickson 518 3.8 88 -3 -0.5 Bill Selby
J.C. Boscan 200 1.9 35 -2 -0.7 Frank Charles
Brian Cavazos-Galvez 352 3.2 72 -3 -0.8 Keith Johnson
Erisbel Arruebarrena 336 2.0 41 -2 -1.1 Norm Tonucci

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Clayton Kershaw L 27 31 31 212.0 238 45 13 159 55 51
Zack Greinke R 31 30 30 188.0 174 42 16 169 68 64
Hyun-Jin Ryu L 28 27 27 168.3 151 39 14 157 65 61
Brandon McCarthy R 31 27 27 166.7 146 29 19 172 76 71
Kenley Jansen R 27 70 0 69.0 105 20 6 47 18 17
Julio Urias L 18 22 22 90.7 93 45 8 79 41 38
Yimi Garcia R 24 57 0 75.3 83 19 7 63 27 25
Brett Anderson L 27 10 10 55.3 47 17 4 52 24 22
Mike Bolsinger R 27 25 23 132.3 109 52 14 133 66 62
Josh Beckett R 35 17 17 95.7 84 33 13 91 47 44
Jeff Bennett R 35 23 19 115.0 72 36 12 120 58 54
Chris Hatcher R 30 60 0 70.7 74 19 7 63 28 26
Adam Liberatore L 28 50 0 59.7 57 20 5 53 24 22
Juan Nicasio R 28 31 20 121.0 102 42 16 120 62 58
J.P. Howell L 32 62 0 49.0 48 22 4 40 19 18
Paco Rodriguez L 24 62 0 47.7 55 19 5 39 19 18
Chris Withrow R 26 34 0 38.0 45 21 4 29 15 14
Joe Wieland R 25 12 11 50.7 43 14 7 50 26 24
Carlos Frias R 25 29 20 128.3 84 40 13 135 67 63
Paul Maholm L 33 26 17 110.3 73 33 13 116 58 54
Joel Peralta R 39 63 0 56.7 61 18 7 50 25 23
Brian Wilson R 33 48 0 41.7 44 18 4 37 18 17
Chris Anderson R 22 23 21 105.3 92 57 11 103 57 53
Jamey Wright R 40 53 0 60.0 48 22 4 58 27 25
Juan Carlos Oviedo R 33 19 0 19.0 17 7 2 18 9 8
Pedro Baez R 27 62 0 66.0 56 20 8 61 30 28
Kevin Correia R 34 27 24 144.7 80 35 19 160 79 74
Stephen Fife R 28 20 18 97.3 63 36 11 104 54 50
Scott Elbert L 29 28 0 21.7 19 8 3 21 11 10
Sergio Santos R 31 31 0 28.0 29 13 3 25 14 13
Zach Lee R 23 27 25 139.0 93 45 19 144 77 72
Fauxsto Carmona R 34 23 20 115.3 74 40 16 119 64 60
Brandon League R 32 61 0 60.0 40 23 4 61 29 27
Daniel Coulombe L 25 48 0 58.7 64 37 6 51 29 27
Randy Fontanez R 26 43 0 65.7 58 24 7 63 32 30
Anthony Slama R 31 14 0 16.0 13 10 2 15 10 9
Chris Perez R 29 56 0 55.0 51 22 8 51 28 26
Red Patterson R 28 35 13 101.0 81 44 14 102 57 53
Sam Demel R 29 34 3 53.0 47 23 8 52 30 28
Daniel Moskos L 29 18 0 21.3 16 13 3 22 14 13
Drew Carpenter R 30 20 14 82.7 49 30 13 92 51 48
Chris Reed L 25 23 22 120.7 90 61 16 125 73 68
Josh Judy R 29 31 0 38.3 28 18 6 41 25 23
Justin Souza R 29 31 0 41.0 24 15 7 47 27 25
Javier Solano R 25 40 6 80.0 55 32 13 87 49 46
Nick Struck R 25 24 22 118.7 63 58 19 137 82 77
Barry Enright R 29 27 24 130.3 68 45 29 159 98 92

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Clayton Kershaw 212.0 840 28.3% 5.4% .270 2.17 2.36 60 66
Zack Greinke 188.0 775 22.5% 5.4% .283 3.06 3.10 85 86
Hyun-Jin Ryu 168.3 701 21.5% 5.6% .290 3.26 3.12 91 87
Brandon McCarthy 166.7 701 20.8% 4.1% .304 3.83 3.43 106 95
Kenley Jansen 69.0 274 38.3% 7.3% .291 2.22 2.16 62 60
Julio Urias 90.7 396 23.5% 11.4% .291 3.77 3.94 105 110
Yimi Garcia 75.3 308 27.0% 6.2% .286 2.99 3.04 83 84
Brett Anderson 55.3 235 20.0% 7.2% .289 3.58 3.27 99 91
Mike Bolsinger 132.3 582 18.7% 8.9% .297 4.22 4.18 117 116
Josh Beckett 95.7 411 20.4% 8.0% .280 4.14 4.24 115 118
Jeff Bennett 115.0 501 14.4% 7.2% .288 4.23 4.33 118 120
Chris Hatcher 70.7 294 25.2% 6.5% .292 3.31 3.16 92 88
Adam Liberatore 59.7 252 22.6% 7.9% .287 3.32 3.50 92 97
Juan Nicasio 121.0 525 19.4% 8.0% .287 4.31 4.23 120 118
J.P. Howell 49.0 209 23.0% 10.5% .271 3.31 3.61 92 100
Paco Rodriguez 47.7 201 27.3% 9.4% .281 3.40 3.29 94 91
Chris Withrow 38.0 164 27.4% 12.8% .269 3.32 3.90 92 108
Joe Wieland 50.7 216 19.9% 6.5% .285 4.26 4.09 118 114
Carlos Frias 128.3 560 15.0% 7.1% .293 4.42 4.22 123 117
Paul Maholm 110.3 480 15.2% 6.9% .290 4.40 4.37 122 122
Joel Peralta 56.7 238 25.6% 7.6% .285 3.65 3.57 101 99
Brian Wilson 41.7 180 24.4% 10.0% .294 3.67 3.66 102 102
Chris Anderson 105.3 476 19.3% 12.0% .298 4.53 4.59 126 128
Jamey Wright 60.0 260 18.5% 8.5% .297 3.75 3.58 104 99
Juan Carlos Oviedo 19.0 82 20.7% 8.5% .291 3.79 4.00 105 111
Pedro Baez 66.0 279 20.1% 7.2% .275 3.82 3.95 106 110
Kevin Correia 144.7 629 12.7% 5.6% .287 4.60 4.53 128 126
Stephen Fife 97.3 432 14.6% 8.3% .294 4.62 4.60 128 128
Scott Elbert 21.7 94 20.2% 8.5% .285 4.15 4.45 115 124
Sergio Santos 28.0 122 23.8% 10.7% .286 4.18 3.66 116 102
Zach Lee 139.0 606 15.3% 7.4% .283 4.66 4.72 129 131
Fauxsto Carmona 115.3 505 14.7% 7.9% .281 4.68 4.80 130 133
Brandon League 60.0 264 15.2% 8.7% .294 4.05 3.84 113 107
Daniel Coulombe 58.7 264 24.2% 14.0% .292 4.14 4.25 115 118
Randy Fontanez 65.7 284 20.4% 8.4% .293 4.11 4.01 114 111
Anthony Slama 16.0 73 17.8% 13.7% .277 5.06 5.04 141 140
Chris Perez 55.0 238 21.4% 9.2% .281 4.25 4.56 118 127
Red Patterson 101.0 449 18.0% 9.8% .289 4.72 4.78 131 133
Sam Demel 53.0 234 20.1% 9.8% .288 4.75 4.76 132 132
Daniel Moskos 21.3 99 16.2% 13.1% .293 5.48 5.46 152 152
Drew Carpenter 82.7 370 13.2% 8.1% .289 5.23 5.29 145 147
Chris Reed 120.7 548 16.4% 11.1% .291 5.07 5.06 141 140
Josh Judy 38.3 174 16.1% 10.4% .292 5.40 5.30 150 147
Justin Souza 41.0 185 13.0% 8.1% .294 5.49 5.45 153 151
Javier Solano 80.0 359 15.3% 8.9% .291 5.17 5.25 144 146
Nick Struck 118.7 551 11.4% 10.5% .293 5.84 5.77 162 160
Barry Enright 130.3 595 11.4% 7.6% .292 6.35 6.23 176 173

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Clayton Kershaw 212.0 10.10 1.91 0.55 166 6.7 Sandy Koufax
Zack Greinke 188.0 8.33 2.01 0.77 117 3.7 Kevin Millwood
Hyun-Jin Ryu 168.3 8.07 2.09 0.75 110 2.9 Bob Knepper
Brandon McCarthy 166.7 7.88 1.57 1.03 94 1.6 Esteban Loaiza
Kenley Jansen 69.0 13.70 2.61 0.78 162 1.4 Jose Valverde
Julio Urias 90.7 9.23 4.47 0.79 95 1.0 Randy Johnson
Yimi Garcia 75.3 9.92 2.27 0.84 120 0.8 Scott Strickland
Brett Anderson 55.3 7.65 2.77 0.65 100 0.7 David Williams
Mike Bolsinger 132.3 7.41 3.54 0.95 85 0.6 Lee Tunnell
Josh Beckett 95.7 7.90 3.10 1.22 87 0.6 Paul Abbott
Jeff Bennett 115.0 5.63 2.82 0.94 85 0.5 Spec Shea
Chris Hatcher 70.7 9.42 2.42 0.89 108 0.5 Joe Boever
Adam Liberatore 59.7 8.59 3.02 0.75 108 0.4 Tim Hamulack
Juan Nicasio 121.0 7.59 3.12 1.19 83 0.3 Russ Springer
J.P. Howell 49.0 8.82 4.04 0.73 109 0.3 Marshall Bridges
Paco Rodriguez 47.7 10.38 3.58 0.94 106 0.3 Buzz Oliver
Chris Withrow 38.0 10.66 4.97 0.95 108 0.2 Santiago Casilla
Joe Wieland 50.7 7.63 2.49 1.24 84 0.2 Luis Vasquez
Carlos Frias 128.3 5.89 2.81 0.91 81 0.2 Mark Cahill
Paul Maholm 110.3 5.96 2.69 1.06 81 0.2 Chris Michalak
Joel Peralta 56.7 9.68 2.86 1.11 98 0.1 Doug Bair
Brian Wilson 41.7 9.50 3.88 0.86 98 0.1 Toby Borland
Chris Anderson 105.3 7.86 4.87 0.94 79 0.1 Bill Mooneyham
Jamey Wright 60.0 7.20 3.30 0.60 96 0.0 Don McMahon
Juan Carlos Oviedo 19.0 8.05 3.32 0.95 95 0.0 Kirk Bullinger
Pedro Baez 66.0 7.64 2.73 1.09 94 0.0 Pete Young
Kevin Correia 144.7 4.98 2.18 1.18 78 -0.1 Jared Fernandez
Stephen Fife 97.3 5.83 3.33 1.02 78 -0.1 Landon Jacobsen
Scott Elbert 21.7 7.88 3.32 1.24 86 -0.1 Erik Plantenberg
Sergio Santos 28.0 9.32 4.18 0.96 86 -0.1 Bart Miadich
Zach Lee 139.0 6.02 2.91 1.23 77 -0.2 Byron Ballard
Fauxsto Carmona 115.3 5.78 3.12 1.25 77 -0.2 R.A. Dickey
Brandon League 60.0 6.00 3.45 0.60 89 -0.2 Jim Coates
Daniel Coulombe 58.7 9.81 5.67 0.92 87 -0.3 Kevin Lovingier
Randy Fontanez 65.7 7.95 3.29 0.96 87 -0.3 Steve Hoeme
Anthony Slama 16.0 7.31 5.63 1.13 71 -0.3 Mike Barlow
Chris Perez 55.0 8.35 3.60 1.31 84 -0.3 Doug Bochtler
Red Patterson 101.0 7.22 3.92 1.25 76 -0.4 Edwin Hurtado
Sam Demel 53.0 7.98 3.91 1.36 75 -0.5 Doug Gogolewski
Daniel Moskos 21.3 6.76 5.49 1.27 65 -0.5 Ted Wills
Drew Carpenter 82.7 5.33 3.26 1.41 69 -0.7 Mike Dunne
Chris Reed 120.7 6.71 4.55 1.19 71 -0.8 Neal Musser
Josh Judy 38.3 6.58 4.23 1.41 66 -0.8 Dick Selma
Justin Souza 41.0 5.27 3.29 1.54 65 -0.9 Sam Moore
Javier Solano 80.0 6.19 3.60 1.46 69 -1.0 Jeff Robinson
Nick Struck 118.7 4.78 4.40 1.44 61 -2.0 Dana Allison
Barry Enright 130.3 4.70 3.11 2.00 56 -3.0 Scott Nielsen

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Aaron (UK)
Member
Aaron (UK)

Well, that #1 comp for Kershaw is nice.

D4P
Guest
D4P

See also: #1 comp for Julio Urias

Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles

Urias + 1 foot = Unit, lol fun

Mike Green
Guest
Mike Green

Comps are for fun, and the Dodgers comps are definitely that. Kaline for Puig and Franco for Kendrick got big laughs. Rasmus for Pederson and Bake McBride for Crawford got wry smiles. Before I scrolled down to the pitchers, I knew instinctively who the comp for Kershaw would be.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B

Also fun are the names Spec Shea and Bill Mooneyham. Just because.

James
Guest
James

I’ afraid I am not getting it. When I type and search for Al Kaline in google, wiki, whatever, or just simply click on the name link above, it shows someone’s record that really resemble that of Puig so far. So why are the names for fun?

Phillies113
Member

Scene, Int: Enrique Hernandez’ friend is reading the ZiPS comparisons as Enrique lies on the couch.

Friend: “Hey, Enrique, it says here your number 1 comp is Pete Rose…”
Enrique: “GASP”
Friend: “…Junior”
Enrique: “Aw…”

White Freckles
Guest
White Freckles

Check out the Urias comp.

Free Beer
Guest
Free Beer

That’s LOL funny.