2015 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Washington.

Batters
On multiple occasions over the course of Woody Allen’s 1999 film Sweet and Lowdown, jazz guitarist Emmet Ray (played by Sean Penn) announces that he’s the best in the world “except [for] this gypsy in France” (understood to be Django Reinhardt). It’s not particularly daring to suggest that, likewise, Andrew McCutchen is the best non-pitcher in baseball — except for this center fielder in Los Angeles. McCutchen and Mike Trout possess largely similar skill sets; it’s just, in most cases, Trout possesses them a little harder. Even still, McCutchen’s projection (659 PA, 6.3 WAR) is among the best published so far in this series.

Of some interest is ZiPS’ forecast for recent Korean signing Jung-ho Kang (502 PA, 1.5 WAR), which is slightly (although not substantively) less strong than incumbent Jordy Mercer’s projection (504 PA, 1.9 WAR) for 2015. A potential area of concern for Kang appears to be his ability to make contact. To wit: ZiPS projects Pedro Alvarez to post a 30.0% strikeout rate; Kang, a slightly higher 30.5% mark.

Pitchers
Pittsburgh’s success in 2014 was almost entirely a product of the club’s offensive production. Pirates pitchers recorded the second-lowest collective WAR among all major-league clubs and Pirates starters were the worst in the majors by that measure. Right-hander Gerrit Cole’s roughly two wins rendered him the ace of the staff. Mark Melancon, a reliever, produced the second-best mark among the club’s pitchers.

In a vacuum, ZiPS’ projections for Pittsburgh’s starters aren’t particularly encouraging. In the context of last season, however, there’s cause for (muted) optimism. Cole and Francisco Liriano are both forecast to approach the three-win mark. If both they and also A.J. Burnett all reach their projected WAR figures, that triumvirate would nearly match the entire output of the club’s 2014 pitching staff.

Bench/Prospects
Outfielder Keon Broxton was acquired last March by Pittsburgh in a low-profile move for a player to be named later (the identity of whom isn’t immediately obvious by way of a haphazard internet search). ZiPS projects him to produce the best line (483 PA, 0.9 WAR) of all Pittsburgh’s rookie-eligible players (besides Kang) — tied with more celebrated prospect, infielder Alen Hanson (560 PA, 0.9 WAR). Among pitching prospects, Jameson Taillon (111.1 IP, 0.9 WAR) receives the most encouraging projection — indistinct, really, from either Jeff Locke’s or Vance Worley’s.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Pirates, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Pirates Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Andrew McCutchen R 28 CF 659 96 166 34 6 24 88 20 8
Starling Marte R 26 LF 607 85 151 30 10 14 59 30 13
Gregory Polanco L 23 CF 612 86 145 27 5 14 73 26 9
Neil Walker B 29 2B 573 72 136 27 3 18 74 4 3
Josh Harrison R 27 3B 482 66 128 29 7 10 52 16 6
Pedro Alvarez L 28 3B 523 57 109 19 2 25 76 4 1
Jordy Mercer R 28 SS 504 54 117 27 3 10 50 4 3
Jung-ho Kang R 28 SS 502 57 104 26 2 14 57 5 3
Francisco Cervelli R 29 C 211 22 47 10 1 2 18 2 0
Keon Broxton R 25 CF 483 48 94 17 5 9 42 14 6
Alen Hanson B 22 SS 560 59 126 23 11 10 60 20 13
Tony Sanchez R 27 C 403 40 81 20 0 10 44 1 1
Pedro Florimon B 28 SS 464 45 96 20 3 5 39 14 5
Jake Elmore R 28 2B 433 44 94 19 2 2 33 12 7
Sean Rodriguez R 30 2B 295 34 63 16 3 6 39 3 2
Jose Tabata R 26 RF 432 47 104 21 3 3 37 6 6
Gorkys Hernandez R 27 CF 421 43 89 17 3 3 32 16 6
Andrew Lambo L 26 RF 392 47 87 19 2 13 48 3 2
Josh Bell B 22 RF 527 59 126 25 3 9 55 6 5
Chris Stewart R 33 C 223 19 47 8 0 1 17 2 1
Deibinson Romero R 28 3B 479 47 99 22 2 8 44 1 1
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. B 26 2B 420 40 104 16 3 2 30 7 4
Sebastian Valle R 24 C 346 33 75 14 1 7 36 0 1
Corey Hart R 33 RF 415 47 94 20 2 11 46 3 1
Nevin Ashley R 30 C 268 26 50 12 1 2 24 1 1
Gaby Sanchez R 31 1B 364 38 76 20 0 8 41 2 0
Brent Morel R 28 3B 413 41 88 19 2 4 37 7 2
Justin Sellers R 29 SS 363 35 77 16 2 3 31 2 1
Elias Diaz R 24 C 349 35 73 15 1 4 30 3 4
Willy Garcia R 22 RF 506 51 105 22 5 15 56 8 6
Wilkin Castillo B 31 C 200 18 43 8 3 2 18 2 1
Drew Maggi R 26 3B 428 43 84 13 2 2 28 19 11
Jaff Decker L 25 LF 422 48 79 20 2 7 39 5 5
Mel Rojas Jr. B 25 CF 535 53 114 18 7 6 47 10 8
Robert Andino R 31 2B 433 41 90 16 1 5 33 4 3
Gustavo Nunez B 27 SS 263 25 56 7 2 1 18 6 5
Omir Santos R 34 C 134 10 28 6 1 1 10 0 0
Blake Davis L 31 2B 319 26 69 12 3 2 26 4 2
Michael Martinez B 32 2B 326 30 68 8 4 2 26 4 3
Stetson Allie R 24 1B 448 49 82 16 1 13 44 5 4
Gift Ngoepe B 25 2B 442 40 75 12 6 5 31 9 7
Andy Vasquez L 27 LF 325 31 69 12 3 5 29 10 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Andrew McCutchen 659 11.8% 18.4% .208 .333 .293 .384 .501 .379
Starling Marte 607 4.9% 23.9% .166 .345 .273 .329 .439 .337
Gregory Polanco 612 7.2% 17.6% .142 .296 .259 .313 .401 .317
Neil Walker 573 8.2% 16.4% .170 .293 .266 .336 .436 .337
Josh Harrison 482 3.7% 14.1% .162 .315 .284 .319 .446 .334
Pedro Alvarez 523 9.2% 30.0% .208 .289 .231 .304 .439 .321
Jordy Mercer 504 6.0% 17.1% .136 .290 .254 .304 .390 .295
Jung-ho Kang 502 7.6% 30.5% .159 .313 .230 .299 .389 .303
Francisco Cervelli 211 7.6% 19.0% .097 .308 .251 .329 .348 .307
Keon Broxton 483 7.0% 34.4% .121 .314 .212 .270 .333 .268
Alen Hanson 560 4.5% 21.6% .143 .292 .240 .276 .383 .285
Tony Sanchez 403 7.4% 25.8% .138 .282 .223 .291 .361 .291
Pedro Florimon 464 6.9% 25.6% .097 .302 .227 .283 .324 .271
Jake Elmore 433 8.8% 14.1% .075 .282 .244 .314 .319 .283
Sean Rodriguez 295 6.1% 20.3% .153 .286 .240 .303 .393 .303
Jose Tabata 432 6.5% 14.1% .091 .305 .265 .322 .356 .300
Gorkys Hernandez 421 6.7% 23.3% .084 .305 .234 .293 .318 .275
Andrew Lambo 392 6.6% 25.0% .173 .296 .242 .297 .415 .309
Josh Bell 527 5.5% 17.1% .118 .296 .256 .299 .374 .295
Chris Stewart 223 5.8% 13.5% .055 .269 .235 .292 .290 .258
Deibinson Romero 479 7.7% 20.3% .116 .275 .229 .296 .345 .288
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 420 3.8% 11.9% .072 .297 .265 .296 .337 .277
Sebastian Valle 346 2.9% 26.6% .112 .289 .227 .247 .339 .253
Corey Hart 415 6.7% 19.8% .150 .289 .249 .309 .399 .312
Nevin Ashley 268 6.7% 21.6% .083 .262 .207 .274 .290 .255
Gaby Sanchez 364 9.9% 18.1% .137 .271 .237 .316 .374 .308
Brent Morel 413 6.1% 21.1% .092 .287 .230 .280 .322 .270
Justin Sellers 363 5.8% 15.4% .088 .269 .233 .284 .321 .269
Elias Diaz 349 6.0% 18.6% .091 .271 .228 .277 .319 .263
Willy Garcia 506 3.6% 38.1% .160 .327 .219 .249 .379 .271
Wilkin Castillo 200 3.5% 16.0% .105 .263 .228 .258 .333 .255
Drew Maggi 428 7.7% 20.1% .061 .278 .221 .293 .282 .260
Jaff Decker 422 10.4% 24.4% .122 .275 .214 .301 .336 .281
Mel Rojas Jr. 535 6.0% 23.9% .101 .298 .231 .281 .332 .269
Robert Andino 433 5.3% 20.8% .082 .274 .224 .266 .306 .253
Gustavo Nunez 263 4.2% 20.9% .056 .288 .227 .263 .283 .240
Omir Santos 134 2.2% 21.6% .088 .276 .222 .242 .310 .240
Blake Davis 319 3.8% 18.8% .080 .278 .228 .259 .308 .249
Michael Martinez 326 4.9% 15.6% .073 .263 .227 .265 .300 .245
Stetson Allie 448 9.6% 35.5% .142 .301 .206 .286 .348 .283
Gift Ngoepe 442 7.5% 35.5% .098 .294 .188 .255 .286 .241
Andy Vasquez 325 3.1% 27.7% .107 .298 .223 .249 .330 .248

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Andrew McCutchen 659 7.4 148 -2 6.3 Duke Snider
Starling Marte 607 5.4 115 10 3.6 Matt Kemp
Gregory Polanco 612 4.7 100 6 3.3 Milton Bradley
Neil Walker 573 5.4 117 -2 3.2 Ken McMullen
Josh Harrison 482 5.5 114 2 3.0 Joe Randa
Pedro Alvarez 523 4.7 107 -5 1.9 Mike Pagliarulo
Jordy Mercer 504 4.3 95 1 1.9 Brendan Harris
Jung-ho Kang 502 4.1 93 -5 1.5 Mike Blowers
Francisco Cervelli 211 4.2 92 -1 0.9 Mike Fitzgerald
Keon Broxton 483 3.1 70 7 0.9 Damon Mashore
Alen Hanson 560 3.6 84 -5 0.9 Cristian Guzman
Tony Sanchez 403 3.6 83 -6 0.8 Eric Helfand
Pedro Florimon 464 3.3 72 1 0.8 Julius McDougal
Jake Elmore 433 3.5 80 1 0.8 Matt Erickson
Sean Rodriguez 295 4.2 96 -3 0.7 Matt Macri
Jose Tabata 432 4.0 92 2 0.6 Alex Ochoa
Gorkys Hernandez 421 3.4 73 1 0.5 Rashad Eldridge
Andrew Lambo 392 4.4 99 -2 0.5 Dave Hudgens
Josh Bell 527 4.0 89 2 0.5 Ryan Sweeney
Chris Stewart 223 3.0 66 1 0.5 Chris Ashby
Deibinson Romero 479 3.6 81 -3 0.4 Brad Seitzer
Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 420 3.6 79 0 0.4 Francisco Matos
Sebastian Valle 346 2.9 64 2 0.4 Johnny Cuevas
Corey Hart 415 4.5 99 -5 0.4 Russ Morman
Nevin Ashley 268 2.7 60 1 0.3 Tom Nieto
Gaby Sanchez 364 4.2 95 0 0.3 Jim Vatcher
Brent Morel 413 3.2 70 1 0.3 Clay Bellinger
Justin Sellers 363 3.2 71 -2 0.2 Juan Castro
Elias Diaz 349 2.9 68 -3 0.2 Damian Miller
Willy Garcia 506 3.2 75 8 0.1 Rob Deer
Wilkin Castillo 200 3.0 66 -2 0.0 Luis Rodriguez
Drew Maggi 428 2.8 64 1 -0.1 Charles Gipson
Jaff Decker 422 3.3 80 0 -0.1 Bo Dodson
Mel Rojas Jr. 535 3.1 73 -3 -0.2 Jalal Leach
Robert Andino 433 2.8 62 2 -0.3 Chris Petersen
Gustavo Nunez 263 2.4 55 0 -0.3 Luke Sable
Omir Santos 134 2.6 55 -3 -0.4 Frank Charles
Blake Davis 319 2.8 60 0 -0.4 Tripp Cromer
Michael Martinez 326 2.7 60 -1 -0.6 Pablo Martinez
Stetson Allie 448 3.3 79 0 -0.6 Chris Haas
Gift Ngoepe 442 2.3 53 1 -0.7 Yuri Sanchez
Andy Vasquez 325 2.7 62 -4 -1.4 Basilio Cabrera

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Francisco Liriano L 31 29 29 163.7 172 67 12 137 63 59
Gerrit Cole R 24 28 28 170.7 160 48 13 157 67 63
A.J. Burnett R 38 28 28 179.3 157 72 13 169 83 78
Mark Melancon R 30 67 0 66.7 66 12 4 56 19 18
Charlie Morton R 31 22 22 127.3 94 43 10 125 59 55
Vance Worley R 27 22 21 132.3 90 31 11 141 62 58
Jameson Taillon R 23 19 18 111.3 84 39 9 112 52 49
Jeff Locke L 27 29 29 164.0 124 63 18 163 81 76
Tony Watson L 30 70 0 66.0 64 16 5 56 22 21
Tyler Glasnow R 21 24 24 110.0 121 67 12 93 54 50
Radhames Liz R 32 25 22 117.7 83 49 10 117 58 54
Antonio Bastardo L 29 60 0 54.0 64 25 4 42 19 18
Brandon Cumpton R 26 27 23 138.7 81 44 11 149 71 66
Nick Kingham R 23 25 25 136.0 95 47 14 139 70 65
Casey Sadler R 24 27 23 134.3 78 33 14 143 68 64
Rafael Perez L 33 24 7 61.0 43 13 6 62 28 26
Adam Wilk L 27 26 24 141.0 84 36 16 152 74 69
Stolmy Pimentel R 25 28 15 98.7 72 39 10 100 50 47
John Holdzkom R 27 36 0 37.3 44 21 3 30 15 14
Jared Hughes R 29 62 0 65.3 44 22 5 63 28 26
Adrian Sampson R 23 26 26 149.3 84 34 18 164 80 75
Brad Lincoln R 30 40 10 90.3 71 36 10 90 47 44
Arquimedes Caminero R 28 47 0 62.3 58 28 6 58 29 27
Deolis Guerra R 26 28 1 44.0 34 16 4 43 21 20
Bobby LaFromboise L 29 59 0 64.3 47 23 5 64 30 28
Rob Scahill R 28 57 0 78.3 63 30 7 76 36 34
Josh Kinney R 36 41 0 49.7 41 20 5 48 24 22
Josh Lindblom R 28 33 14 95.0 56 31 11 101 51 48
Josh Wall R 28 49 0 54.0 41 23 4 54 27 25
Clayton Richard L 31 13 13 74.0 34 16 11 85 43 40
Blake Wood R 29 36 0 39.3 32 25 4 38 21 20
Jeremy Bleich L 28 23 12 74.7 45 36 8 80 44 41
Collin Balester R 29 20 2 31.3 21 15 5 34 20 19
Wilfredo Boscan R 25 24 7 70.7 38 25 10 80 43 40
Jarrett Grube R 33 25 24 129.7 79 45 19 142 78 73
Charlie Leesman L 28 21 18 89.7 61 47 11 98 57 53
Angel Sanchez R 25 28 23 125.7 75 59 19 143 85 79

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Francisco Liriano 163.7 695 24.7% 9.6% .283 3.24 3.25 89 89
Gerrit Cole 170.7 717 22.3% 6.7% .296 3.32 3.25 91 89
A.J. Burnett 179.3 779 20.2% 9.2% .297 3.91 3.72 107 102
Mark Melancon 66.7 268 24.6% 4.5% .284 2.43 2.59 67 71
Charlie Morton 127.3 550 17.1% 7.8% .296 3.89 4.02 107 110
Vance Worley 132.3 569 15.8% 5.4% .302 3.94 3.67 108 101
Jameson Taillon 111.3 485 17.3% 8.0% .297 3.96 3.86 109 106
Jeff Locke 164.0 718 17.3% 8.8% .286 4.17 4.30 115 118
Tony Watson 66.0 270 23.7% 5.9% .283 2.86 3.11 79 85
Tyler Glasnow 110.0 490 24.7% 13.7% .286 4.09 4.39 112 121
Radhames Liz 117.7 519 16.0% 9.4% .288 4.13 4.23 114 116
Antonio Bastardo 54.0 229 27.9% 10.9% .284 3.00 3.08 82 85
Brandon Cumpton 138.7 609 13.3% 7.2% .297 4.28 4.12 118 113
Nick Kingham 136.0 594 16.0% 7.9% .291 4.30 4.29 118 118
Casey Sadler 134.3 579 13.5% 5.7% .289 4.29 4.22 118 116
Rafael Perez 61.0 258 16.7% 5.0% .290 3.84 3.76 106 103
Adam Wilk 141.0 611 13.7% 5.9% .291 4.40 4.29 121 118
Stolmy Pimentel 98.7 435 16.5% 9.0% .291 4.29 4.32 118 119
John Holdzkom 37.3 163 27.0% 12.9% .288 3.37 3.61 93 99
Jared Hughes 65.3 281 15.7% 7.8% .283 3.58 3.86 98 106
Adrian Sampson 149.3 646 13.0% 5.3% .291 4.52 4.42 124 122
Brad Lincoln 90.3 397 17.9% 9.1% .291 4.38 4.35 120 120
Arquimedes Caminero 62.3 273 21.3% 10.3% .292 3.90 3.94 107 108
Deolis Guerra 44.0 191 17.8% 8.4% .291 4.09 4.09 112 112
Bobby LaFromboise 64.3 280 16.8% 8.2% .292 3.92 3.78 108 104
Rob Scahill 78.3 341 18.5% 8.8% .292 3.91 3.97 107 109
Josh Kinney 49.7 217 18.9% 9.2% .290 3.99 4.02 110 111
Josh Lindblom 95.0 417 13.4% 7.4% .287 4.55 4.59 125 126
Josh Wall 54.0 239 17.2% 9.6% .298 4.17 3.93 115 108
Clayton Richard 74.0 323 10.5% 5.0% .285 4.86 4.86 134 134
Blake Wood 39.3 181 17.7% 13.8% .286 4.58 4.68 126 129
Jeremy Bleich 74.7 340 13.2% 10.6% .291 4.94 4.91 136 135
Collin Balester 31.3 143 14.7% 10.5% .293 5.46 5.42 150 149
Wilfredo Boscan 70.7 317 12.0% 7.9% .292 5.09 5.11 140 140
Jarrett Grube 129.7 576 13.7% 7.8% .289 5.07 5.04 139 139
Charlie Leesman 89.7 414 14.7% 11.3% .300 5.32 5.13 146 141
Angel Sanchez 125.7 579 13.0% 10.2% .297 5.66 5.53 156 152

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Francisco Liriano 163.7 9.46 3.68 0.66 111 2.8 Al Leiter
Gerrit Cole 170.7 8.44 2.53 0.69 108 2.8 Kevin Millwood
A.J. Burnett 179.3 7.88 3.61 0.65 92 1.6 Mike Torrez
Mark Melancon 66.7 8.91 1.62 0.54 148 1.2 J.J. Putz
Charlie Morton 127.3 6.65 3.04 0.71 92 1.1 Omar Olivares
Vance Worley 132.3 6.12 2.11 0.75 91 1.1 Jason Rakers
Jameson Taillon 111.3 6.79 3.15 0.73 91 0.9 Ed Wojna
Jeff Locke 164.0 6.80 3.46 0.99 86 0.9 Rafael Roque
Tony Watson 66.0 8.73 2.18 0.68 125 0.8 Gabe White
Tyler Glasnow 110.0 9.90 5.48 0.98 88 0.7 A.J. Burnett
Radhames Liz 117.7 6.35 3.75 0.76 87 0.7 Russ Ortiz
Antonio Bastardo 54.0 10.67 4.17 0.67 120 0.6 Armando Almanza
Brandon Cumpton 138.7 5.26 2.86 0.71 84 0.5 Jake Joseph
Nick Kingham 136.0 6.29 3.11 0.93 83 0.5 Shane Reynolds
Casey Sadler 134.3 5.23 2.21 0.94 84 0.5 Mike Lincoln
Rafael Perez 61.0 6.34 1.92 0.89 94 0.4 Mike Jeffcoat
Adam Wilk 141.0 5.36 2.30 1.02 81 0.3 Heath Phillips
Stolmy Pimentel 98.7 6.57 3.56 0.91 84 0.3 Anthony Moreno
John Holdzkom 37.3 10.62 5.07 0.72 106 0.2 Steve Andrade
Jared Hughes 65.3 6.06 3.03 0.69 100 0.2 Sean Green
Adrian Sampson 149.3 5.06 2.05 1.09 79 0.1 Sean Green
Brad Lincoln 90.3 7.08 3.59 1.00 82 -0.1 Tom Kramer
Arquimedes Caminero 62.3 8.38 4.04 0.87 92 -0.1 Brian Mallette
Deolis Guerra 44.0 6.95 3.27 0.82 88 -0.1 Frank DiPino
Bobby LaFromboise 64.3 6.58 3.22 0.70 92 -0.1 Carmen Cali
Rob Scahill 78.3 7.24 3.45 0.80 92 -0.1 Ryan Cameron
Josh Kinney 49.7 7.42 3.62 0.91 90 -0.1 Don Aase
Josh Lindblom 95.0 5.31 2.94 1.04 79 -0.1 Wes Wilkerson
Josh Wall 54.0 6.83 3.83 0.67 86 -0.3 Ryan Baker
Clayton Richard 74.0 4.14 1.95 1.34 74 -0.3 Lee Gronkiewicz
Blake Wood 39.3 7.33 5.73 0.92 78 -0.4 Bart Evans
Jeremy Bleich 74.7 5.42 4.34 0.96 73 -0.4 Jimmy Williams
Collin Balester 31.3 6.04 4.31 1.44 66 -0.5 Gary Neibauer
Wilfredo Boscan 70.7 4.84 3.18 1.27 70 -0.7 Julio Solano
Jarrett Grube 129.7 5.48 3.12 1.32 71 -0.8 R.A. Dickey
Charlie Leesman 89.7 6.12 4.72 1.10 67 -0.9 Steve Smyth
Angel Sanchez 125.7 5.37 4.22 1.36 63 -1.8 David Walters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Jorge
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Jorge

It’s official guys, we can all safely project that Michael Martinez still sucks at being a baseball player.