2015 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / Tampa Bay.

Batters
The Nationals featured eight field players who produced a 1.2 WAR or better in 2014. All eight of them, with the exception of Adam LaRoche, appear in the depth-chart image below. All eight of them — again, with the exception of Adam LaRoche — are projected to produce a 1.8 WAR or better in 2014.

The weak point for the club remains the second-base position. Danny Espinosa is a defensive asset there and has above-average power (especially relative to the position), but his plate discipline has eroded almost entirely. According to ZiPS, middle infielder Wilmer Difo (1.6 WAR in 507 PA) is probably the club’s best option at second in terms of wins — although, insofar as he’s just barely played at High-A, that he’d play an important role at the major-league level appears unlikely.

Pitchers
As with their offense, the Nationals return almost precisely the same entire pitching staff in 2015 as they deployed in 2014. A sound maneuver, that, owing to how Nats pitchers produced the highest collective WAR among all major-league staffs last season. The triumvirate of Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Gonzalez alone have a higher projected WAR for 2015 than any of the five-man rotations projected thus far in this exercise.

Since 2010 — which is to say, Drew Storen’s first full season with Washington — Tyler Clippard has produced a better ERA and strikeout-walk differential than, and almost twice as many wins as, Storen himself. He’s projected by ZiPS to do almost all those things precisely in 2015, as well — and will do it, it appears, while setting up for Storen. Of note regarding that point: when Storen last worked as a full-time closer, in 2011, Clippard recorded almost the same gmLI* as Storen: 1.67 vs. 1.77.

*That is, average leverage index when entering a game.

Bench/Prospects
It’s quite possible that Steven Souza, recently traded to Tampa Bay, will produce an excellent season for the Rays as their starting right fielder. Souza’s departure doesn’t hurt the Nationals’ outfield depth significantly, however: both Michael Taylor and Brian Goodwin are forecast to play average to (in Taylor’s case) considerably above-average defense and hit enough to profile as at least a competent bench player. In A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito, Washington has two minor-league pitchers projected to record major-league average seasons this year. Taylor Jordan, Blake Treinen, and Austin Voth also currently profile as somthing better than replacement level now, according to ZiPS’ computer math.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Nats Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Anthony Rendon R 25 3B 583 85 143 32 5 18 72 10 2
Ian Desmond R 29 SS 636 74 157 31 3 22 83 24 7
Bryce Harper L 22 RF 488 65 119 19 3 22 54 8 4
Denard Span L 31 CF 620 80 160 32 8 5 42 21 6
Jayson Werth R 36 LF 511 67 123 25 1 15 64 9 1
Asdrubal Cabrera B 29 2B 613 78 143 33 4 14 74 10 3
Wilson Ramos R 27 C 330 34 82 11 0 14 50 0 1
Ryan Zimmerman R 30 1B 462 59 114 24 2 15 70 3 1
Brandon Laird R 27 3B 564 61 130 29 1 17 69 1 0
Michael A. Taylor R 24 CF 527 58 109 24 4 12 54 25 10
Wilmer Difo B 23 SS 507 57 123 18 5 9 51 25 8
Sandy Leon B 26 C 310 30 61 13 0 5 26 1 0
Trea Turner R 22 SS 389 51 90 13 2 5 33 18 6
Jose Lobaton B 30 C 262 25 57 12 1 4 23 0 1
Danny Espinosa B 28 2B 490 49 97 22 3 11 41 11 3
Brian Goodwin L 24 CF 443 48 87 16 6 7 40 10 8
Tony Renda R 24 2B 563 65 128 27 2 2 43 19 6
Nate McLouth L 33 LF 351 38 73 15 2 6 24 12 3
Tyler Moore R 28 1B 423 46 93 21 1 15 55 1 1
Will Rhymes L 32 2B 449 44 101 16 5 3 35 5 4
Jeff Kobernus R 27 LF 398 44 93 15 2 3 31 28 7
Nate Schierholtz L 31 RF 397 41 86 17 3 11 48 4 4
Mario Lisson R 31 3B 399 40 74 16 0 9 37 9 3
Kevin Frandsen R 33 2B 342 30 83 14 1 2 29 2 2
Scott Hairston R 35 LF 176 20 37 9 1 7 26 2 1
Sean Nicol R 28 3B 239 22 50 9 1 1 18 4 2
Brian Jeroloman L 30 C 242 20 42 5 0 2 14 1 2
Cutter Dykstra R 26 2B 452 44 94 17 2 4 38 12 5
Clint Robinson L 30 1B 513 55 112 24 2 10 55 1 1
Mitch Canham L 30 C 180 16 35 6 1 1 11 4 2
Matt Skole L 25 1B 420 43 79 19 1 9 55 3 1
Oscar Tejeda R 25 3B 405 39 87 15 2 9 39 6 2
Drew Vettleson L 23 RF 422 38 92 18 5 7 40 4 6
Greg Dobbs L 36 1B 232 18 52 9 0 3 23 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Anthony Rendon 583 8.9% 17.3% .185 .309 .276 .346 .461 .354
Ian Desmond 636 6.3% 23.6% .176 .324 .268 .319 .444 .337
Bryce Harper 488 11.3% 22.1% .214 .327 .280 .365 .494 .370
Denard Span 620 6.8% 10.2% .111 .307 .280 .330 .391 .321
Jayson Werth 511 11.0% 19.6% .161 .323 .276 .362 .437 .355
Asdrubal Cabrera 613 7.7% 15.5% .151 .289 .260 .325 .411 .324
Wilson Ramos 330 6.1% 15.5% .173 .279 .267 .312 .440 .326
Ryan Zimmerman 462 9.3% 18.4% .177 .311 .275 .342 .452 .346
Brandon Laird 564 4.3% 20.0% .155 .280 .246 .282 .401 .299
Michael A. Taylor 527 7.6% 33.2% .142 .330 .228 .291 .370 .295
Wilmer Difo 507 4.1% 14.4% .115 .286 .258 .292 .373 .298
Sandy Leon 310 8.4% 21.0% .100 .264 .217 .285 .317 .271
Trea Turner 389 6.2% 24.7% .089 .328 .251 .304 .340 .291
Jose Lobaton 262 8.8% 21.8% .110 .301 .242 .310 .352 .293
Danny Espinosa 490 6.1% 31.2% .138 .305 .218 .285 .356 .284
Brian Goodwin 443 9.7% 28.2% .124 .304 .221 .302 .345 .288
Tony Renda 563 6.7% 12.8% .072 .284 .250 .307 .322 .286
Nate McLouth 351 8.8% 16.0% .119 .268 .235 .313 .354 .300
Tyler Moore 423 7.6% 27.2% .176 .302 .242 .303 .418 .318
Will Rhymes 449 6.9% 10.7% .086 .271 .247 .300 .333 .279
Jeff Kobernus 398 5.5% 19.6% .077 .314 .254 .300 .331 .287
Nate Schierholtz 397 5.5% 19.4% .153 .265 .235 .282 .388 .290
Mario Lisson 399 7.0% 28.3% .120 .271 .206 .275 .326 .270
Kevin Frandsen 342 2.9% 9.1% .069 .282 .261 .303 .330 .280
Scott Hairston 176 5.1% 23.3% .198 .256 .228 .273 .426 .305
Sean Nicol 239 6.7% 21.3% .065 .293 .229 .284 .294 .259
Brian Jeroloman 242 7.9% 27.7% .050 .267 .194 .259 .244 .228
Cutter Dykstra 452 7.7% 24.6% .081 .303 .230 .295 .311 .275
Clint Robinson 513 8.4% 17.9% .125 .279 .240 .306 .365 .299
Mitch Canham 180 7.8% 20.6% .067 .270 .215 .279 .282 .255
Matt Skole 420 10.7% 30.0% .130 .295 .214 .301 .344 .288
Oscar Tejeda 405 4.4% 24.2% .120 .281 .228 .262 .348 .269
Drew Vettleson 422 4.5% 24.2% .124 .293 .233 .269 .357 .272
Greg Dobbs 232 4.7% 18.1% .083 .282 .241 .280 .324 .260

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Anthony Rendon 583 6.1 120 3 4.2 Andy Carey
Ian Desmond 636 5.4 107 0 3.9 Brandon Inge
Bryce Harper 488 6.8 133 3 3.5 Danny Tartabull
Denard Span 620 5.0 97 4 2.8 Steve Finley
Jayson Werth 511 6.1 119 -3 2.3 Dusty Baker
Asdrubal Cabrera 613 5.0 101 -3 2.2 Odell Hale
Wilson Ramos 330 5.0 104 1 2.1 Danilo Sanchez
Ryan Zimmerman 462 5.8 116 2 1.8 Geronimo Berroa
Brandon Laird 564 4.1 85 6 1.8 Willis Otanez
Michael A. Taylor 527 3.9 80 8 1.7 George Lombard
Wilmer Difo 507 4.2 81 1 1.6 Aaron Holbert
Sandy Leon 310 3.2 65 7 1.2 Matt Garrick
Trea Turner 389 3.9 77 0 0.9 Dickie Thon
Jose Lobaton 262 3.8 82 0 0.9 Chad Moeller
Danny Espinosa 490 3.6 75 2 0.7 Justin Sherrod
Brian Goodwin 443 3.5 77 2 0.7 Brad Snyder
Tony Renda 563 3.7 73 1 0.6 Mel Houston
Nate McLouth 351 4.1 83 3 0.6 Ryan Christenson
Tyler Moore 423 4.5 96 1 0.4 Jason Dubois
Will Rhymes 449 3.5 74 -1 0.1 Alex Cora
Jeff Kobernus 398 4.0 73 2 0.0 Damian Rolls
Nate Schierholtz 397 3.8 82 2 0.0 Marc Sagmoen
Mario Lisson 399 3.1 64 0 -0.1 Jose Santos
Kevin Frandsen 342 3.6 74 -3 -0.1 Jerry Adair
Scott Hairston 176 4.1 88 -3 -0.3 Craig Paquette
Sean Nicol 239 2.9 59 -1 -0.4 Jason Camilli
Brian Jeroloman 242 2.0 40 1 -0.4 Chris Tremie
Cutter Dykstra 452 3.3 67 -5 -0.5 Ross Jones
Clint Robinson 513 4.0 84 -1 -0.5 Andy Barkett
Mitch Canham 180 2.7 55 -5 -0.5 Luis Rodriguez
Matt Skole 420 3.6 77 0 -0.6 Eric Danapilis
Oscar Tejeda 405 3.3 66 -4 -0.7 Carlos Casimiro
Drew Vettleson 422 3.2 70 0 -1.0 Donnie Delaney
Greg Dobbs 232 3.2 66 -4 -1.2 Larry Biittner

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Stephen Strasburg R 26 31 31 193.3 217 47 19 165 67 63
Jordan Zimmermann R 29 31 31 193.3 159 34 16 181 71 66
Gio Gonzalez L 29 29 29 170.3 171 67 13 145 66 62
Doug Fister R 31 26 26 165.3 117 31 15 161 64 60
Tanner Roark R 28 28 28 182.3 121 41 16 176 75 70
Lucas Giolito R 20 26 26 134.3 126 45 17 121 60 56
A.J. Cole R 23 25 25 141.3 120 36 19 139 64 60
Blake Treinen R 27 26 20 120.0 78 30 10 124 55 51
Tyler Clippard R 30 71 0 66.0 75 23 6 50 21 20
John Simms R 23 21 14 94.7 66 28 9 96 45 42
Taylor Jordan R 26 18 17 95.3 60 25 9 101 46 43
Austin Voth R 23 25 25 119.0 105 47 16 115 60 56
Aaron Barrett R 27 55 0 51.3 55 18 3 43 18 17
Craig Stammen R 31 50 0 74.7 66 22 6 70 30 28
Drew Storen R 27 65 0 56.7 50 14 5 52 21 20
Rafael Soriano R 35 60 0 58.0 52 18 5 52 22 21
Jerry Blevins L 31 62 0 56.7 55 20 5 48 22 21
Taylor Hill R 26 27 24 143.3 73 31 19 161 78 73
Xavier Cedeno L 28 53 0 48.7 52 19 4 42 19 18
Joe Ross R 22 23 22 118.0 72 40 13 126 64 60
Sammy Solis L 26 10 10 40.0 25 13 3 41 19 18
Christian Garcia R 29 31 0 34.3 34 14 2 30 13 12
Danny Rosenbaum L 27 16 16 87.3 45 34 8 95 47 44
Paolo Espino R 28 25 18 118.0 86 36 16 123 64 60
Matt Thornton L 38 54 0 34.7 23 9 2 34 14 13
Matt Grace L 26 52 0 72.3 48 26 5 72 32 30
Mitch Lively R 29 33 16 108.7 79 51 12 110 59 55
Paul Demny R 25 26 13 85.7 65 41 10 86 46 43
Ross Ohlendorf R 32 17 12 71.0 49 28 8 74 39 36
Rafael Martin R 31 31 0 41.7 39 17 4 38 18 17
Neil Holland R 26 44 0 65.0 48 21 6 64 30 28
Mike Gonzalez L 37 38 0 31.0 30 13 3 29 14 13
Tyler Herron R 28 47 0 64.7 52 32 5 62 31 29
Erik Davis R 28 41 0 51.3 41 18 5 51 25 23
Zach Jackson L 32 31 0 39.0 24 12 3 40 19 18
Felipe Rivero L 23 20 19 83.3 52 41 10 89 49 46
Eric Fornataro R 27 50 0 62.3 34 24 5 65 31 29
Matt Purke L 24 14 14 61.0 39 27 8 66 36 34
Sam Runion R 26 35 0 55.3 36 18 6 57 28 26
Ryan Mattheus R 31 49 0 54.3 36 17 6 56 28 26
Jake Johansen R 24 23 16 82.7 59 50 9 85 49 46
Tyler Robertson L 27 39 0 36.0 29 17 4 36 19 18
Daniel Stange R 29 48 0 59.7 45 30 5 59 31 29
Manny Delcarmen R 33 42 0 52.3 39 29 4 52 28 26
Ryan Tatusko R 30 26 18 108.0 74 70 12 111 65 61
Bryan Harper L 25 34 0 47.0 33 29 5 48 27 25
Chris Manno L 26 31 0 38.7 30 22 5 40 24 22
Bruce Billings R 29 24 20 112.7 68 45 17 124 72 67
Zach Kroenke L 31 25 17 102.0 45 44 14 118 66 62

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Stephen Strasburg 193.3 792 27.4% 5.9% .291 2.93 2.89 78 77
Jordan Zimmermann 193.3 795 20.0% 4.3% .285 3.07 3.10 82 83
Gio Gonzalez 170.3 723 23.7% 9.3% .282 3.28 3.25 87 87
Doug Fister 165.3 688 17.0% 4.5% .283 3.27 3.52 87 94
Tanner Roark 182.3 764 15.8% 5.4% .276 3.46 3.62 92 97
Lucas Giolito 134.3 569 22.1% 7.9% .275 3.75 3.89 100 104
A.J. Cole 141.3 599 20.0% 6.0% .288 3.82 3.99 102 106
Blake Treinen 120.0 514 15.2% 5.8% .292 3.82 3.71 102 99
Tyler Clippard 66.0 271 27.7% 8.5% .267 2.73 3.05 73 81
John Simms 94.7 408 16.2% 6.9% .290 3.99 3.91 106 104
Taylor Jordan 95.3 412 14.6% 6.1% .294 4.06 3.93 108 105
Austin Voth 119.0 519 20.2% 9.1% .288 4.24 4.39 113 117
Aaron Barrett 51.3 215 25.6% 8.4% .292 2.98 2.78 79 74
Craig Stammen 74.7 316 20.9% 7.0% .291 3.37 3.17 90 85
Drew Storen 56.7 236 21.2% 5.9% .285 3.18 3.17 85 85
Rafael Soriano 58.0 244 21.3% 7.4% .280 3.26 3.31 87 88
Jerry Blevins 56.7 238 23.1% 8.4% .277 3.34 3.26 89 87
Taylor Hill 143.3 622 11.7% 5.0% .290 4.58 4.59 122 122
Xavier Cedeno 48.7 207 25.1% 9.2% .294 3.33 3.21 89 86
Joe Ross 118.0 520 13.8% 7.7% .291 4.58 4.41 122 117
Sammy Solis 40.0 174 14.4% 7.5% .288 4.05 3.83 108 102
Christian Garcia 34.3 147 23.1% 9.5% .298 3.15 3.31 84 88
Danny Rosenbaum 87.3 391 11.5% 8.7% .291 4.53 4.55 121 121
Paolo Espino 118.0 513 16.8% 7.0% .290 4.58 4.40 122 117
Matt Thornton 34.7 147 15.6% 6.1% .291 3.37 3.42 90 91
Matt Grace 72.3 315 15.2% 8.3% .289 3.73 3.82 99 102
Mitch Lively 108.7 487 16.2% 10.5% .290 4.56 4.63 122 124
Paul Demny 85.7 384 16.9% 10.7% .288 4.52 4.59 121 122
Ross Ohlendorf 71.0 315 15.6% 8.9% .291 4.56 4.40 122 117
Rafael Martin 41.7 180 21.7% 9.4% .288 3.67 3.79 98 101
Neil Holland 65.0 280 17.1% 7.5% .289 3.88 3.88 103 103
Mike Gonzalez 31.0 135 22.2% 9.6% .295 3.77 3.63 101 97
Tyler Herron 64.7 288 18.0% 11.1% .291 4.04 3.98 108 106
Erik Davis 51.3 223 18.4% 8.1% .295 4.03 3.77 107 101
Zach Jackson 39.0 169 14.2% 7.1% .289 4.15 3.90 111 104
Felipe Rivero 83.3 380 13.7% 10.8% .291 4.97 5.02 133 134
Eric Fornataro 62.3 276 12.3% 8.7% .287 4.19 4.30 112 115
Matt Purke 61.0 276 14.1% 9.8% .293 5.02 5.00 134 133
Sam Runion 55.3 241 14.9% 7.5% .288 4.23 4.24 113 113
Ryan Mattheus 54.3 236 15.3% 7.2% .286 4.31 4.10 115 109
Jake Johansen 82.7 383 15.4% 13.1% .293 5.01 5.07 134 135
Tyler Robertson 36.0 161 18.0% 10.6% .294 4.50 4.30 120 115
Daniel Stange 59.7 268 16.8% 11.2% .293 4.37 4.29 117 114
Manny Delcarmen 52.3 238 16.4% 12.2% .295 4.47 4.33 119 115
Ryan Tatusko 108.0 505 14.7% 13.9% .289 5.08 5.26 135 140
Bryan Harper 47.0 218 15.1% 13.3% .291 4.79 5.07 128 135
Chris Manno 38.7 178 16.8% 12.4% .296 5.12 5.04 137 134
Bruce Billings 112.7 507 13.4% 8.9% .289 5.35 5.19 143 138
Zach Kroenke 102.0 468 9.6% 9.4% .291 5.47 5.45 146 145

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Stephen Strasburg 193.3 10.10 2.19 0.88 130 4.9 Brett Myers
Jordan Zimmermann 193.3 7.40 1.58 0.74 124 4.5 John Burkett
Gio Gonzalez 170.3 9.04 3.54 0.69 116 3.5 Wilson Alvarez
Doug Fister 165.3 6.37 1.69 0.82 117 3.4 Brad Radke
Tanner Roark 182.3 5.97 2.02 0.79 110 3.4 Anthony Kelley
Lucas Giolito 134.3 8.44 3.02 1.14 102 2.0 Eric Gagne
A.J. Cole 141.3 7.64 2.29 1.21 100 1.9 Mark Brownson
Blake Treinen 120.0 5.85 2.25 0.75 100 1.6 Chuck Porter
Tyler Clippard 66.0 10.23 3.14 0.82 140 1.1 Rich DeLucia
John Simms 94.7 6.27 2.66 0.86 96 1.0 Jeff Taylor
Taylor Jordan 95.3 5.67 2.36 0.85 94 1.0 Mark Knudson
Austin Voth 119.0 7.94 3.55 1.21 90 1.0 Ryan Vogelsong
Aaron Barrett 51.3 9.65 3.16 0.53 128 0.7 Rich Garces
Craig Stammen 74.7 7.95 2.65 0.72 113 0.7 Jim Bruske
Drew Storen 56.7 7.94 2.22 0.79 120 0.6 Mark Huismann
Rafael Soriano 58.0 8.07 2.79 0.78 117 0.6 Terry Clark
Jerry Blevins 56.7 8.73 3.17 0.79 114 0.5 Matt Thornton
Taylor Hill 143.3 4.58 1.95 1.19 83 0.5 Daniel Griffin
Xavier Cedeno 48.7 9.61 3.51 0.74 115 0.5 Yorkis Perez
Joe Ross 118.0 5.49 3.05 0.99 83 0.4 Zach McClellan
Sammy Solis 40.0 5.63 2.93 0.68 94 0.4 Danny Borrell
Christian Garcia 34.3 8.92 3.67 0.52 121 0.4 Jason Bulger
Danny Rosenbaum 87.3 4.64 3.51 0.82 84 0.4 John Courtright
Paolo Espino 118.0 6.56 2.75 1.22 83 0.4 Shane Bowers
Matt Thornton 34.7 5.97 2.33 0.52 113 0.3 Bill Henry
Matt Grace 72.3 5.98 3.24 0.62 102 0.3 Anthony Ferrari
Mitch Lively 108.7 6.54 4.22 0.99 84 0.3 Chris Fussell
Paul Demny 85.7 6.83 4.31 1.05 84 0.3 Hector Trinidad
Ross Ohlendorf 71.0 6.21 3.55 1.01 84 0.2 Evan Thomas
Rafael Martin 41.7 8.42 3.67 0.86 104 0.2 Gregg Olson
Neil Holland 65.0 6.65 2.91 0.83 98 0.1 Chad Paronto
Mike Gonzalez 31.0 8.71 3.77 0.87 101 0.1 Norm Charlton
Tyler Herron 64.7 7.23 4.45 0.70 95 0.0 Jake Robbins
Erik Davis 51.3 7.19 3.16 0.88 95 0.0 Bo Donaldson
Zach Jackson 39.0 5.54 2.77 0.69 92 -0.1 Tom Burgmeier
Felipe Rivero 83.3 5.62 4.43 1.08 77 -0.1 Rejino Gonzalez
Eric Fornataro 62.3 4.91 3.47 0.72 91 -0.1 Scott Munter
Matt Purke 61.0 5.75 3.98 1.18 76 -0.1 Stevenson Agosto
Sam Runion 55.3 5.86 2.93 0.98 90 -0.1 Mark Hutton
Ryan Mattheus 54.3 5.97 2.82 0.99 89 -0.2 Chuck Crim
Jake Johansen 82.7 6.42 5.44 0.98 76 -0.2 Mike Bell
Tyler Robertson 36.0 7.25 4.25 1.00 85 -0.2 Bob Ayrault
Daniel Stange 59.7 6.78 4.52 0.75 87 -0.3 Jake Robbins
Manny Delcarmen 52.3 6.71 4.99 0.69 85 -0.3 Jerry Johnson
Ryan Tatusko 108.0 6.17 5.83 1.00 75 -0.4 Michael Smith
Bryan Harper 47.0 6.32 5.55 0.96 80 -0.4 Dean Brueggemann
Chris Manno 38.7 6.98 5.12 1.16 75 -0.5 Carl Keliipuleole
Bruce Billings 112.7 5.43 3.59 1.36 71 -0.7 Mike Heathcott
Zach Kroenke 102.0 3.97 3.88 1.24 70 -0.9 Chris Peters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Dave
Guest
Dave

What is Souza’s projection?

Nick
Guest
Nick

I would love to see Souza’s as well. I thought maybe he’d been added to TB’s projections since he’s not on this one, but no luck.

Dave
Guest
Dave

According to Twitter, Souza’s projection is 228/304/396. Gotta say, that’s not what I was expecting to see after he put up 300/396/557 in 2013 in the most pitching friendly league in AA, and then 345/432/590 in the pitching friendly Int’l League in AAA in 2014.

Can’t really understand projections sometimes…

Cool Lester Smooth
Guest
Cool Lester Smooth

Kid’s gonna be 26 in April, and they projected him for a .700 OPS (~.305 wOBA). That’s pretty outstanding, and very playable considering his defense.

If he hadn’t torn up AAA at age 25, and AA at age 24, he wouldn’t be getting talked about right now. That’s the only reason ZiPS thinks he can put up a 95 wRC+ in the MLB.

Dave
Guest
Dave

I think that 228/304/396 represents pretty close to the floor of what Souza (barring injury) would do in the majors. I was expecting the projection range for Souza to be from around roughly 750 to 800.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I read an article that ZIPS is the best overall projection system, but not as good as some others for players at the beginning of their careers.