2017 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
A few years ago, I experimented idly with a toy stat called Reckless Power (RECK, for short), calculated by dividing isolated slugging (SLG – AVG) by what’s sometimes called isolated patience (OBP – AVG). It identifies players whose power on contact far exceeds their selectivity. To get a sense of the scale, here’s a collection of the top 10 batters by RECK from 2016:

RECK Leaderboard, 2016
Name Team PA AVG OBP SLG RECK
Rougned Odor Rangers 632 .271 .296 .502 9.2
Matt Kemp – – – 672 .268 .304 .499 6.4
Didi Gregorius Yankees 597 .276 .304 .447 6.1
Jonathan Schoop Orioles 647 .267 .298 .454 6.0
Daniel Murphy Nationals 582 .347 .390 .595 5.8
Yasmany Tomas Diamondbacks 563 .272 .313 .508 5.8
Evan Longoria Rays 685 .273 .318 .521 5.5
Starlin Castro Yankees 610 .270 .300 .433 5.4
Carlos Beltran – – – 593 .295 .337 .513 5.2
Manny Machado Orioles 696 .294 .343 .533 4.9
Of 146 qualified batters.
RECK is (SLG – AVG) / (OBP – AVG).

League average is about 2.5. A score of 5.0 or higher typically earns a player a spot among the league’s top 10. Baltimore, one finds, placed two batters in the top 10 this past season. Another, Mark Trumbo, was 16th of 146 qualifiers. The Orioles, as a club, produced the highest RECK score in the majors, at 3.0.

The projections from Dan Szymborski’s computer suggest that Baltimore is likely to compete for that distinction again in 2017. Adam Jones (635 PA, .267/.304/.450, 5.0 RECK) and Jonathan Schoop (530, .264/.297.453, 5.8) are both forecast, essentially, to produce top-10 figures. Manny Machado (646, .289/.349/.511, 3.7) and Mark Trumbo (557, .251/.307/.491, 4.3) would both finish above the 75th percentile given their respective numbers.

In terms of wins and losses, this isn’t particularly illuminating. What it does illustrate, though, is how the Orioles have gone about scoring runs — and how they’ll score runs in 2017. By virtue largely of power on contact, is how.

Pitchers
Baltimore’s pitching staff is constructed unusually. The top five starters are projected to produce roughly nine wins; the top five relievers, about six wins (or about two-thirds the rotation’s mark). By way of reference consider that, in 2016, the average rotation produced roughly 12 total wins; the average bullpen, slightly less than four (or about one-third the rotation’s mark).

This probably isn’t ideal for the regular season. After the triumvirate of Kevin Gausman (176.0 IP, 2.8 zWAR), Dylan Bundy (109.1, 2.1), Chris Tillman (167.0, 1.9), there’s little depth — certainly not the sort one might expect of a championship club. That said, the combination of Zach Britton (64.0, 1.7), Mychal Givens (79.1, 1.4), Brad Brach (74.0, 1.2) in the bullpen rivals the notable relief units of Kansas City’s recent World Series clubs.

Bench/Prospects
Precisely how the bench will be used remains a bit obscure. It’s very possible that both Joey Rickard (360 PA, -0.6 zWAR) and Christian Walker (567, 0.0) will accumulate a fair number of plate appearances in separate outfield platoon roles, although their ZiPS forecasts provide little reason for optimism. The return of Mark Trumbo creates less of an opportunity for Trey Mancini (612, 1.4), although the latter profiles as a strong bench player. Mancini and catcher Chance Sisco (471, 1.1) earn the top win projections among rookie-eligible players.

With regard to the rotation, Baltimore doesn’t currently possess many options for depth. Among the pitchers who could be expected to provide some kind of assistance in that regard, Jed Bradley (99.1 IP, 0.3 zWAR) — acquired from Atlanta by means of waivers — receives the top projection. Logan Verrett (113.1, 0.2), Tyler Wilson (123.1, 0.3), and Mike Wright (129.2, 0.1) are all around, it appears, though none likely to provide something much better than replacement-level innings.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Manny Machado R 24 3B 646 91 169 32 1 32 86 7 4
Chris Davis L 31 1B 595 86 123 22 0 39 99 2 2
Adam Jones R 31 CF 635 80 159 24 2 27 89 5 1
Jonathan Schoop R 25 2B 530 63 133 27 1 22 67 1 1
Welington Castillo R 30 C 422 39 93 17 0 17 60 1 0
Trey Mancini R 25 1B 612 73 149 27 4 21 78 3 2
Mark Trumbo R 31 RF 557 73 129 23 2 32 95 2 1
Seth Smith L 34 RF 410 54 90 19 2 14 55 0 0
Pedro Alvarez L 30 DH 423 52 90 17 0 26 69 3 1
Hyun Soo Kim L 29 LF 419 46 109 17 1 11 35 3 3
Matt Wieters B 31 C 353 34 80 14 1 12 46 1 0
J.J. Hardy R 34 SS 469 44 109 22 0 10 48 0 0
Chance Sisco L 22 C 471 47 111 19 1 8 39 3 2
Caleb Joseph R 31 C 324 30 68 12 0 9 30 0 1
Francisco Pena R 27 C 324 35 73 14 1 8 38 1 2
Audry Perez R 28 C 303 28 72 11 0 6 28 0 1
Ryan Flaherty L 30 3B 262 27 51 10 1 7 28 1 0
Drew Stubbs R 32 CF 282 33 53 9 2 8 24 12 3
Austin Wynns R 26 C 304 26 66 13 0 3 23 1 1
Dariel Alvarez R 28 RF 525 52 132 27 1 11 52 5 3
Christian Walker R 26 LF 567 64 126 24 1 23 70 1 2
Sean Coyle R 25 2B 358 37 62 13 1 12 34 7 3
Anthony Santander B 22 LF 497 58 109 24 0 19 63 6 5
Jesus Montero R 27 1B 490 56 126 20 2 17 67 1 0
Mike Yastrzemski L 26 RF 511 52 104 22 4 12 50 9 5
Paul Janish R 34 SS 319 25 66 10 1 0 16 1 2
Adam Brett Walker R 25 LF 531 67 108 17 3 29 86 5 3
Nolan Reimold R 33 LF 242 24 48 9 1 5 20 2 1
Michael Bourn L 34 CF 478 47 103 14 5 4 35 14 6
Osvaldo Martinez R 29 SS 395 34 87 11 2 4 29 6 2
D.J. Stewart L 23 LF 509 52 99 19 3 10 45 17 10
Chris Dickerson L 35 CF 166 18 32 6 1 4 16 4 1
Adrian Marin R 23 SS 478 41 103 15 3 6 35 15 10
L.J. Hoes R 27 CF 430 45 94 15 2 6 37 10 6
Logan Schafer L 30 RF 344 34 71 13 3 4 26 4 2
Aneury Tavarez L 25 RF 447 40 96 15 4 10 38 14 8
Xavier Avery L 27 CF 433 45 87 15 2 8 35 16 6
Sharlon Schoop R 30 2B 295 25 58 9 1 4 22 0 2
Joey Rickard R 26 RF 360 38 78 15 1 4 26 8 3
Glynn Davis R 25 CF 404 36 82 13 1 4 28 12 9
Drew Dosch L 25 3B 505 45 106 15 4 7 41 3 2
Julio Borbon L 31 LF 421 39 95 7 2 4 26 18 8
David Washington L 26 RF 436 49 77 15 1 21 55 3 4
Aderlin Rodriguez R 25 1B 457 47 100 17 2 14 55 1 2
Garabez Rosa R 27 2B 497 43 111 16 1 9 44 3 4
Jomar Reyes R 20 3B 480 43 99 18 2 10 44 3 0
Henry Urrutia L 30 RF 420 38 100 16 1 6 36 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Manny Machado 646 8.2% 17.3% .222 .308 .289 .349 .511 .365
Chris Davis 595 11.6% 33.6% .270 .300 .239 .334 .509 .354
Adam Jones 635 4.3% 18.1% .183 .288 .267 .304 .450 .321
Jonathan Schoop 530 3.2% 22.3% .189 .304 .264 .297 .453 .320
Welington Castillo 422 6.9% 25.6% .178 .291 .243 .304 .421 .309
Trey Mancini 612 6.5% 25.2% .173 .325 .263 .314 .436 .322
Mark Trumbo 557 7.4% 25.3% .240 .284 .251 .307 .491 .337
Seth Smith 410 11.0% 20.5% .182 .290 .252 .341 .434 .333
Pedro Alvarez 423 9.7% 28.6% .251 .274 .237 .312 .488 .334
Hyun Soo Kim 419 10.0% 15.3% .140 .329 .294 .370 .434 .352
Matt Wieters 353 6.8% 19.3% .161 .276 .248 .301 .410 .304
J.J. Hardy 469 5.1% 17.1% .119 .281 .249 .287 .368 .281
Chance Sisco 471 8.3% 22.5% .106 .327 .261 .323 .366 .304
Caleb Joseph 324 5.6% 22.5% .130 .269 .227 .274 .358 .271
Francisco Pena 324 4.3% 18.5% .132 .273 .241 .276 .373 .281
Audry Perez 303 3.6% 17.2% .101 .286 .250 .281 .351 .276
Ryan Flaherty 262 8.0% 25.2% .140 .270 .217 .288 .357 .277
Drew Stubbs 282 9.2% 36.2% .148 .315 .212 .288 .360 .293
Austin Wynns 304 4.9% 22.0% .077 .290 .232 .271 .309 .256
Dariel Alvarez 525 3.2% 15.6% .124 .294 .264 .290 .388 .294
Christian Walker 567 6.3% 29.1% .182 .304 .241 .293 .423 .307
Sean Coyle 358 7.8% 39.1% .158 .292 .193 .265 .351 .275
Anthony Santander 497 5.8% 26.2% .178 .289 .239 .292 .417 .309
Jesus Montero 490 4.3% 19.8% .162 .309 .272 .304 .433 .314
Mike Yastrzemski 511 6.8% 27.8% .141 .290 .222 .280 .363 .286
Paul Janish 319 6.3% 15.7% .041 .272 .227 .282 .268 .249
Adam Brett Walker 531 7.0% 44.6% .226 .350 .222 .277 .449 .309
Nolan Reimold 242 9.5% 27.3% .120 .293 .222 .298 .343 .283
Michael Bourn 478 6.9% 23.8% .083 .309 .237 .290 .320 .277
Osvaldo Martinez 395 4.8% 17.5% .073 .278 .235 .273 .308 .257
D.J. Stewart 509 10.4% 27.3% .123 .296 .221 .309 .344 .302
Chris Dickerson 166 7.8% 31.3% .133 .295 .213 .283 .347 .284
Adrian Marin 478 4.2% 22.2% .087 .286 .229 .264 .316 .266
L.J. Hoes 430 8.4% 17.9% .095 .286 .242 .308 .337 .295
Logan Schafer 344 7.0% 18.3% .100 .275 .229 .290 .329 .271
Aneury Tavarez 447 4.3% 28.4% .127 .303 .230 .268 .356 .282
Xavier Avery 433 7.4% 31.2% .109 .312 .221 .281 .330 .281
Sharlon Schoop 295 5.8% 25.8% .084 .277 .212 .259 .296 .247
Joey Rickard 360 8.3% 21.1% .091 .305 .244 .314 .334 .293
Glynn Davis 404 5.7% 28.5% .072 .304 .220 .267 .292 .261
Drew Dosch 505 5.1% 25.7% .094 .294 .226 .268 .319 .258
Julio Borbon 421 4.8% 17.3% .059 .287 .242 .280 .300 .269
David Washington 436 9.2% 43.8% .205 .308 .197 .273 .402 .294
Aderlin Rodriguez 457 3.7% 28.7% .145 .297 .231 .265 .376 .276
Garabez Rosa 497 2.0% 28.0% .094 .305 .232 .251 .326 .251
Jomar Reyes 480 3.5% 29.4% .114 .290 .218 .252 .332 .255
Henry Urrutia 420 5.0% 20.0% .091 .304 .252 .288 .343 .275

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Manny Machado 646 6.8 129 11 5.8 Adrian Beltre
Chris Davis 595 6.0 124 3 3.0 Jim Gentile
Adam Jones 635 5.1 101 -2 2.2 Vernon Wells
Jonathan Schoop 530 4.9 99 1 2.1 Jorge Cantu
Welington Castillo 422 4.6 94 -5 1.6 Ronny Paulino
Trey Mancini 612 5.0 101 4 1.4 Wil Cordero
Mark Trumbo 557 5.4 111 -6 1.4 Larry Parrish
Seth Smith 410 5.4 109 0 1.4 Lyle Overbay
Pedro Alvarez 423 5.4 112 0 1.3 Pat Dodson
Hyun Soo Kim 419 6.0 117 -6 1.3 John Kruk
Matt Wieters 353 4.5 90 -2 1.2 Milt May
J.J. Hardy 469 3.8 76 5 1.1 Mike Bordick
Chance Sisco 471 4.3 87 -7 1.1 Al Lopez
Caleb Joseph 324 3.4 70 4 0.8 Chad Moeller
Francisco Pena 324 3.6 74 2 0.7 Bob Melvin
Audry Perez 303 3.5 70 0 0.4 Roger Hansen
Ryan Flaherty 262 3.6 74 2 0.4 Jose Santos
Drew Stubbs 282 3.8 75 0 0.3 Bo Porter
Austin Wynns 304 2.9 57 2 0.2 Matt Morgan
Dariel Alvarez 525 4.1 82 2 0.1 Carlos Mendez
Christian Walker 567 4.3 91 -5 0.0 Kevin West
Sean Coyle 358 3.1 65 1 0.0 Blake Whealy
Anthony Santander 497 4.2 89 -4 0.0 George Gomez
Jesus Montero 490 4.9 97 -6 0.0 Nicholas Stavinoha
Mike Yastrzemski 511 3.5 73 5 0.0 Jon Hamilton
Paul Janish 319 2.5 51 5 -0.1 Kevin Baez
Adam Brett Walker 531 4.3 92 -6 -0.2 Kelvin Moore
Nolan Reimold 242 3.5 73 0 -0.2 Ryan McGuire
Michael Bourn 478 3.3 66 0 -0.2 Tom Goodwin
Osvaldo Martinez 395 3.0 57 1 -0.2 Raul Nieves
D.J. Stewart 509 3.6 77 0 -0.3 Ty Griffin
Chris Dickerson 166 3.5 70 -4 -0.3 Dann Howitt
Adrian Marin 478 2.8 57 2 -0.4 Jason Bowers
L.J. Hoes 430 3.6 75 -7 -0.4 Gary Hinson
Logan Schafer 344 3.3 71 2 -0.5 Ted Wood
Aneury Tavarez 447 3.3 67 4 -0.5 Alexis Gomez
Xavier Avery 433 3.3 65 -4 -0.5 Mike Murphy
Sharlon Schoop 295 2.5 50 3 -0.5 Chris Petersen
Joey Rickard 360 3.8 76 -5 -0.6 Jordan Parraz
Glynn Davis 404 2.5 52 3 -0.7 Mauricio Nunez
Drew Dosch 505 3.0 59 0 -0.8 Jason Bowers
Julio Borbon 421 3.0 58 4 -0.9 Terry Blocker
David Washington 436 3.6 80 -6 -0.9 Chito Martinez
Aderlin Rodriguez 457 3.4 71 -2 -1.3 Adam Keim
Garabez Rosa 497 2.8 55 -2 -1.4 Freddie Benavides
Jomar Reyes 480 3.0 57 -6 -1.4 Ricky Magdaleno
Henry Urrutia 420 3.5 70 -8 -1.5 Terrence Long

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Kevin Gausman R 26 31 31 176.0 162 55 21 174 82 77
Dylan Bundy R 24 19 19 109.3 108 36 13 104 48 45
Chris Tillman R 29 29 29 167.0 133 60 21 167 86 80
Zach Britton L 29 66 0 64.0 73 18 5 50 17 16
Mychal Givens R 27 63 0 79.3 101 31 7 63 28 26
Brad Brach R 31 63 0 74.0 87 29 8 60 27 25
Wade Miley L 30 29 29 165.7 135 55 22 176 92 86
Darren O’Day R 34 48 0 45.7 56 14 6 37 15 14
Vance Worley R 29 31 11 105.3 74 29 15 114 55 51
Ubaldo Jimenez R 33 27 25 140.3 124 65 18 142 80 75
Donnie Hart L 26 60 0 60.0 47 18 6 58 25 23
Zach Stewart R 30 24 22 126.7 90 45 18 140 74 69
Oliver Drake R 30 55 0 59.0 74 28 7 49 27 25
Jed Bradley L 27 37 12 99.3 78 40 13 105 56 52
Tyler Wilson R 27 27 21 123.3 84 31 20 138 73 68
Logan Verrett R 27 33 17 113.3 81 38 17 124 66 62
Hunter Harvey R 22 11 11 44.3 43 25 7 44 26 24
Joe Gunkel R 25 28 23 134.7 91 28 23 153 81 76
Tommy Hunter R 30 54 0 54.0 41 13 7 57 27 25
Mike Wright R 27 27 23 129.7 87 39 21 145 79 74
Nick Additon L 29 22 14 90.3 58 34 13 101 56 52
Richard Rodriguez R 27 45 1 73.3 65 23 11 75 40 37
Cody Satterwhite R 30 45 0 52.0 47 23 7 52 28 26
Stefan Crichton R 25 39 2 68.7 47 22 9 75 39 36
Jason Garcia R 24 27 15 92.7 53 47 11 104 58 54
Logan Ondrusek R 32 49 0 46.7 42 18 6 48 26 24
Todd Redmond R 32 19 4 47.0 35 19 7 51 29 27
Brian Moran L 28 22 0 26.7 21 10 4 29 16 15
David Hale R 29 29 18 103.0 63 34 16 120 65 61
Jesus Liranzo R 22 29 0 47.0 50 26 8 43 27 25
T.J. McFarland L 28 35 7 67.0 36 22 9 79 42 39
Chris Lee L 24 17 16 86.7 45 41 11 100 57 53
Jayson Aquino L 24 26 20 123.7 71 39 20 145 79 74
Jefri Hernandez R 26 32 0 39.3 34 24 5 41 24 22
Tom Gorzelanny L 34 37 0 32.7 30 20 5 34 20 19
Bobby Bundy R 27 22 0 30.3 24 16 4 32 19 18
Tanner Scott L 22 35 1 53.0 58 52 6 47 34 32
Jimmy Yacabonis R 25 47 0 60.3 51 36 8 62 37 35
Brandon Barker R 24 26 25 130.3 86 48 25 151 89 83
Garrett Cortright R 25 37 0 50.0 28 16 9 60 34 32
Trey Haley R 27 41 0 47.0 40 37 7 49 34 32
Parker Bridwell R 25 24 14 89.7 74 49 17 99 65 61
David Hess R 23 25 24 122.7 78 52 23 143 88 82
Tim Berry L 26 24 17 91.0 57 48 19 109 71 66

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Kevin Gausman 176.0 757 21.4% 7.3% .297 3.94 3.82 92 88
Dylan Bundy 109.3 468 23.1% 7.7% .298 3.70 3.75 86 86
Chris Tillman 167.0 728 18.3% 8.2% .287 4.31 4.30 100 99
Zach Britton 64.0 260 28.1% 6.9% .276 2.25 2.64 52 61
Mychal Givens 79.3 332 30.4% 9.3% .298 2.95 3.03 69 70
Brad Brach 74.0 311 28.0% 9.3% .278 3.04 3.25 71 75
Wade Miley 165.7 728 18.5% 7.6% .301 4.67 4.25 109 98
Darren O’Day 45.7 188 29.8% 7.4% .287 2.76 3.41 64 79
Vance Worley 105.3 459 16.1% 6.3% .294 4.36 4.46 102 103
Ubaldo Jimenez 140.3 628 19.7% 10.4% .298 4.81 4.48 112 103
Donnie Hart 60.0 256 18.4% 7.0% .284 3.45 3.74 80 86
Zach Stewart 126.7 565 15.9% 8.0% .301 4.90 4.76 114 110
Oliver Drake 59.0 254 29.1% 11.0% .296 3.81 3.72 89 86
Jed Bradley 99.3 443 17.6% 9.0% .300 4.71 4.54 110 105
Tyler Wilson 123.3 539 15.6% 5.8% .296 4.96 4.70 116 109
Logan Verrett 113.3 502 16.1% 7.6% .296 4.92 4.71 115 109
Hunter Harvey 44.3 202 21.3% 12.4% .298 4.87 5.11 114 118
Joe Gunkel 134.7 585 15.6% 4.8% .298 5.08 4.75 118 110
Tommy Hunter 54.0 232 17.5% 5.5% .295 4.17 3.95 97 91
Mike Wright 129.7 573 15.2% 6.8% .297 5.14 4.96 120 114
Nick Additon 90.3 406 14.3% 8.4% .297 5.18 4.95 121 114
Richard Rodriguez 73.3 318 20.4% 7.2% .298 4.54 4.27 106 98
Cody Satterwhite 52.0 231 20.3% 10.0% .298 4.50 4.55 105 105
Stefan Crichton 68.7 303 15.5% 7.3% .299 4.72 4.53 110 105
Jason Garcia 92.7 429 12.4% 11.0% .298 5.24 5.19 122 120
Logan Ondrusek 46.7 206 20.4% 8.7% .304 4.63 4.20 108 97
Todd Redmond 47.0 211 16.6% 9.0% .297 5.17 4.70 120 108
Brian Moran 26.7 119 17.6% 8.4% .305 5.06 4.72 118 109
David Hale 103.0 463 13.6% 7.3% .301 5.33 4.92 124 114
Jesus Liranzo 47.0 210 23.8% 12.4% .285 4.79 5.04 112 116
T.J. McFarland 67.0 302 11.9% 7.3% .302 5.24 4.76 122 110
Chris Lee 86.7 401 11.2% 10.2% .298 5.50 5.31 128 123
Jayson Aquino 123.7 555 12.8% 7.0% .299 5.39 5.18 125 119
Jefri Hernandez 39.3 183 18.6% 13.1% .305 5.03 5.01 117 116
Tom Gorzelanny 32.7 152 19.7% 13.2% .302 5.23 5.00 122 115
Bobby Bundy 30.3 139 17.3% 11.5% .301 5.34 5.02 124 116
Tanner Scott 53.0 258 22.5% 20.2% .295 5.43 5.50 127 127
Jimmy Yacabonis 60.3 279 18.3% 12.9% .298 5.22 5.03 122 116
Brandon Barker 130.3 590 14.6% 8.1% .297 5.73 5.52 134 127
Garrett Cortright 50.0 226 12.4% 7.1% .300 5.76 5.41 134 125
Trey Haley 47.0 227 17.6% 16.3% .300 6.13 5.83 143 135
Parker Bridwell 89.7 417 17.7% 11.8% .301 6.12 5.73 143 132
David Hess 122.7 563 13.9% 9.2% .298 6.02 5.69 140 131
Tim Berry 91.0 430 13.3% 11.2% .299 6.53 6.32 152 146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Kevin Gausman 176.0 8.28 2.81 1.07 104 2.8 Jason Schmidt
Dylan Bundy 109.3 8.89 2.96 1.07 110 2.1 Josh Johnson
Chris Tillman 167.0 7.17 3.23 1.13 95 1.9 Pat Rapp
Zach Britton 64.0 10.27 2.53 0.70 181 1.7 John Hiller
Mychal Givens 79.3 11.46 3.52 0.79 138 1.4 Jim Kern
Brad Brach 74.0 10.58 3.53 0.97 134 1.2 Turk Wendell
Wade Miley 165.7 7.33 2.99 1.20 87 1.1 Rick Waits
Darren O’Day 45.7 11.04 2.76 1.18 148 0.9 Troy Percival
Vance Worley 105.3 6.32 2.48 1.28 94 0.9 Ben Cantwell
Ubaldo Jimenez 140.3 7.95 4.17 1.15 85 0.7 Tim Leary
Donnie Hart 60.0 7.05 2.70 0.90 118 0.7 Bob Reynolds
Zach Stewart 126.7 6.39 3.20 1.28 83 0.5 Dennis Burtt
Oliver Drake 59.0 11.29 4.27 1.07 107 0.4 Mark Clear
Jed Bradley 99.3 7.07 3.62 1.18 87 0.3 Chris Cumberland
Tyler Wilson 123.3 6.13 2.26 1.46 82 0.3 Mike Lincoln
Logan Verrett 113.3 6.43 3.02 1.35 83 0.2 Vicente Bonilla
Hunter Harvey 44.3 8.73 5.08 1.42 84 0.2 Bobby Jenks
Joe Gunkel 134.7 6.08 1.87 1.54 80 0.2 Heath Totten
Tommy Hunter 54.0 6.77 2.14 1.13 98 0.1 Scott Winchester
Mike Wright 129.7 6.04 2.71 1.46 79 0.1 Not That John Lackey
Nick Additon 90.3 5.78 3.39 1.30 79 -0.1 Jeff Williams
Richard Rodriguez 73.3 7.98 2.82 1.35 90 -0.1 Rob Stanifer
Cody Satterwhite 52.0 8.13 3.98 1.21 91 -0.1 Jarod Juelsgaard
Stefan Crichton 68.7 6.16 2.88 1.18 86 -0.2 Matt Wilhite
Jason Garcia 92.7 5.15 4.56 1.07 78 -0.2 Tim Byron
Logan Ondrusek 46.7 8.10 3.47 1.16 88 -0.2 Jason Bullard
Todd Redmond 47.0 6.70 3.64 1.34 79 -0.2 Mike Sullivan
Brian Moran 26.7 7.09 3.38 1.35 81 -0.2 Joey Long
David Hale 103.0 5.50 2.97 1.40 76 -0.3 Elliot Brown
Jesus Liranzo 47.0 9.57 4.98 1.53 85 -0.3 Lariel Gonzalez
T.J. McFarland 67.0 4.84 2.96 1.21 78 -0.3 Chris Key
Chris Lee 86.7 4.67 4.26 1.14 74 -0.3 Vincent Price
Jayson Aquino 123.7 5.17 2.84 1.46 76 -0.4 Jason Dickson
Jefri Hernandez 39.3 7.78 5.49 1.14 81 -0.4 Ken Wright
Tom Gorzelanny 32.7 8.27 5.51 1.38 78 -0.4 Pedro Borbon
Bobby Bundy 30.3 7.12 4.75 1.19 76 -0.4 Tom Dukes
Tanner Scott 53.0 9.85 8.83 1.02 75 -0.7 Greg Miller
Jimmy Yacabonis 60.3 7.61 5.37 1.19 78 -0.7 Darin Moore
Brandon Barker 130.3 5.94 3.31 1.73 71 -0.9 Doug Vanderweele
Garrett Cortright 50.0 5.04 2.88 1.62 71 -0.9 Scott Strickland
Trey Haley 47.0 7.66 7.09 1.34 67 -1.1 Johnny Humphries
Parker Bridwell 89.7 7.43 4.92 1.71 67 -1.1 Alonso Beltran
David Hess 122.7 5.72 3.82 1.69 68 -1.3 Vance Cozier
Tim Berry 91.0 5.64 4.75 1.88 62 -1.6 Matt White

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2017 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Kvn
Member
Kvn

J.J. Hardy’s top comp is Mike Bordick. A tiny weight in favor of a harmonious universe.

mtsw
Member
Member

Then you see the Hyun Soo Kim / John Kruk comp.