2017 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
In every season from 2011 to 2014, right fielder Giancarlo Stanton (484 PA, 3.8 zWAR) produced the highest WAR total among Miami’s field players. In 2015, he produced the second-highest WAR total on the club — less due to his own shortcomings, however, and more to the .383 BABIP that allowed Dee Gordon (606, 2.1) to record a career-best offensive season. Stanton was almost unassailably the club’s top position player for a period of five years.

The 2016 campaign marked a departure for Stanton, however, from the top of the club’s leaderboard. Limited by injury to just 470 plate appearances, Statnton also produced the worst offensive season of his career. He finished sixth on the team in wins. At the same time, Christian Yelich (638 PA, 3.8) recorded his second four-win season over the last three years. Now the two receive the same win projection, is the point of these whole two paragraphs.

One note: Yelich is located at center field on the depth-chart image below, Marcell Ozuna (602, 2.5) in left — because that seems like the club’s probable alignment in 2017. The two are projected at the opposite positions, however. Generally speaking, there’s about a 10-run difference in the positional adjustment between left and center over the course of a full season. That would render Yelich (projected for +6 runs in left) about a -4 defender in center; Ozuna (projected for -3 runs in center), a +7 fielder in left.

Pitchers
It’s hard to discuss the Marlins generally — or their rotation, specifically — without acknowledging the absence of Jose Fernandez. There have been a number of testaments both to his skill and enthusiasm. Even merely reciting his numbers becomes an accidental tribute to his excellence. Consider: during his four years in the majors, Fernandez averaged 5.3 WAR per 180 innings. Only one other starting pitcher during that interval, Clayton Kershaw, recorded a superior mark.

Unsurprisingly, Miami’s rotation is weaker without Fernandez. Wei-Yin Chen (147.0 IP, 2.4 zWAR) is the nominal ace of the staff, and also the only pitcher on the club to receive win projection here greater than two. It isn’t entirely clear how the club plans to utilize Jeff Locke (141.2, 0.6) and Justin Nicolino (162.1, 1.1). The latter appears to represent the stronger option for the rotation.

With regard to the bullpen, Miami has actually assembled an impressive group, both in terms of top-end talent and depth. Kyle Barraclough (73.1, 1.0) and A.J. Ramos (62.2, 0.9) are most qualified for high-leverage innings, per Szymborski’s computer, but there are a number of other qualified arms.

Bench/Prospects
Though he’s listed as the lone starter at first base, Justin Bour (428 PA, 1.0 zWAR) is a candidate for a platoon role. Xavier Scruggs (475, 0.7) receives the top projection among right-handed batters who aren’t likely to start elsewhere… but was also just signed by a Korean club. Corner infielder Matt Juengel (520, 0.6) is the next-best option by those criteria. Unjustly absent from the depth chart below is Derek Dietrich (436, 1.8). He’s an average major leaguer, it appears.

Among pitchers, left-hander Dillon Peters (112.1 IP, 1.0 zWAR) earns the top forecast among starting options not expected to be selected for the Opening Day rotation. He recorded all but four of his starts in 2016 at High-A.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Christian Yelich L 25 LF 638 82 158 33 4 15 70 15 5
Giancarlo Stanton R 27 RF 484 66 106 20 2 31 82 4 2
Martin Prado R 33 3B 585 60 153 28 3 8 63 2 2
J.T. Realmuto R 26 C 513 58 131 26 4 10 52 11 4
Marcell Ozuna R 26 CF 602 73 147 28 4 20 74 2 2
Dee Gordon L 29 2B 606 82 162 18 10 2 34 52 15
Derek Dietrich L 27 2B 436 55 94 20 5 12 46 1 1
Tomas Telis B 26 C 423 46 101 18 2 5 38 3 2
Justin Bour L 29 1B 428 46 101 18 0 16 60 1 0
Adeiny Hechavarria R 28 SS 552 54 130 19 7 4 43 5 3
Brian Anderson R 24 3B 495 54 104 20 2 11 49 2 1
Moises Sierra R 28 RF 300 34 72 13 2 6 26 6 3
Xavier Scruggs R 29 1B 475 56 97 23 1 15 51 3 3
Matt Juengel R 27 3B 520 58 119 25 4 11 54 4 2
Ramon Cabrera B 27 C 370 31 88 17 0 3 33 1 1
Austin Nola R 27 2B 487 45 101 21 3 3 37 3 2
J.T. Riddle L 25 SS 460 47 107 16 3 5 38 5 2
A.J. Ellis R 36 C 237 18 44 9 0 4 24 1 1
Miguel Rojas R 28 SS 329 36 75 14 1 3 25 3 3
Peter Mooney L 26 SS 371 37 77 12 1 3 24 2 2
Chris Hoo R 25 C 253 23 49 8 0 2 16 0 0
Matt den Dekker L 29 LF 433 46 86 17 3 8 38 12 4
Robert Andino R 33 SS 379 36 79 15 1 6 30 4 1
Ichiro Suzuki L 41 RF 353 43 83 10 5 1 20 9 3
Carlos Paulino R 27 C 172 14 36 7 1 1 12 0 1
David Lough L 31 LF 254 27 57 9 3 3 19 4 4
Isaac Galloway R 27 CF 464 44 93 16 4 7 37 16 7
Cam Maron L 26 C 252 26 53 8 0 2 18 1 0
Cole Figueroa L 30 2B 388 38 91 14 3 3 32 4 3
Cole Gillespie R 33 RF 274 29 60 12 2 2 21 4 1
Destin Hood R 27 LF 466 48 101 23 3 11 47 6 5
Ryan Jackson R 29 SS 317 25 61 9 1 1 18 3 2
Zach Lutz R 31 3B 164 18 32 5 1 3 15 0 1
Rodrigo Vigil R 24 C 272 24 65 9 0 0 18 0 0
Austin Dean R 23 LF 562 62 125 27 4 11 59 6 6
Tyler Moore R 30 1B 242 24 49 12 0 8 28 0 0
Chris Johnson R 32 1B 353 28 83 16 0 6 32 2 0
Jeff Francoeur R 33 LF 317 31 73 13 1 8 35 1 2
Yefri Perez B 26 CF 434 44 89 10 2 1 23 31 12
Garrett Weber R 28 2B 375 37 81 12 2 6 30 1 1
Don Kelly L 37 1B 160 14 31 2 2 1 11 1 1
Brandon Barnes R 31 LF 367 31 74 15 2 5 24 9 7
Chris Curley R 29 1B 373 38 79 15 2 8 36 3 2
Cal Towey L 27 RF 470 46 82 15 5 7 37 9 7
Alex Yarbrough B 25 2B 579 50 126 29 4 4 45 5 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Christian Yelich 638 10.7% 21.5% .152 .345 .281 .359 .433 .349
Giancarlo Stanton 484 12.4% 30.0% .281 .307 .254 .351 .535 .367
Martin Prado 585 6.3% 10.8% .107 .307 .284 .332 .391 .313
J.T. Realmuto 513 5.3% 17.9% .134 .318 .274 .316 .408 .318
Marcell Ozuna 602 6.8% 21.9% .173 .313 .265 .317 .438 .324
Dee Gordon 606 5.0% 14.9% .078 .334 .285 .322 .363 .323
Derek Dietrich 436 6.7% 23.4% .173 .304 .247 .335 .420 .327
Tomas Telis 423 4.7% 12.5% .094 .283 .256 .295 .350 .280
Justin Bour 428 9.6% 18.5% .172 .292 .263 .334 .435 .322
Adeiny Hechavarria 552 5.3% 14.3% .087 .288 .252 .291 .339 .272
Brian Anderson 495 6.9% 24.2% .126 .288 .230 .291 .356 .285
Moises Sierra 300 6.0% 22.0% .127 .322 .262 .314 .389 .311
Xavier Scruggs 475 10.3% 27.8% .168 .303 .233 .324 .401 .320
Matt Juengel 520 5.2% 17.7% .136 .281 .246 .290 .382 .292
Ramon Cabrera 370 5.4% 13.8% .075 .290 .256 .296 .331 .276
Austin Nola 487 7.0% 19.7% .081 .285 .230 .289 .311 .265
J.T. Riddle 460 4.6% 18.0% .086 .295 .248 .284 .334 .271
A.J. Ellis 237 12.7% 17.7% .105 .256 .220 .325 .325 .286
Miguel Rojas 329 5.2% 12.5% .083 .277 .248 .291 .331 .270
Peter Mooney 371 8.1% 15.4% .068 .268 .231 .298 .299 .268
Chris Hoo 253 5.5% 22.5% .061 .275 .214 .276 .275 .246
Matt den Dekker 433 8.1% 26.3% .120 .288 .220 .289 .340 .286
Robert Andino 379 5.0% 24.5% .098 .283 .223 .263 .321 .257
Ichiro Suzuki 353 7.1% 11.9% .071 .293 .259 .314 .330 .289
Carlos Paulino 172 5.8% 18.6% .077 .278 .229 .276 .306 .256
David Lough 254 5.5% 16.1% .103 .284 .246 .295 .349 .285
Isaac Galloway 464 4.3% 29.1% .104 .292 .214 .252 .318 .258
Cam Maron 252 9.5% 21.0% .061 .297 .235 .307 .296 .272
Cole Figueroa 388 6.7% 8.2% .082 .272 .257 .306 .339 .287
Cole Gillespie 274 8.0% 16.8% .089 .287 .243 .304 .332 .284
Destin Hood 466 5.4% 27.7% .143 .301 .232 .275 .375 .287
Ryan Jackson 317 9.8% 22.4% .050 .287 .219 .295 .269 .255
Zach Lutz 164 8.5% 26.8% .109 .287 .218 .293 .327 .278
Rodrigo Vigil 272 2.2% 14.3% .035 .291 .250 .270 .285 .242
Austin Dean 562 6.0% 21.2% .131 .289 .241 .288 .372 .290
Tyler Moore 242 7.0% 26.9% .163 .273 .222 .278 .385 .282
Chris Johnson 353 5.1% 25.8% .102 .326 .250 .290 .352 .277
Jeff Francoeur 317 4.7% 23.0% .131 .295 .245 .281 .376 .284
Yefri Perez 434 5.5% 21.4% .042 .284 .222 .267 .264 .261
Garrett Weber 375 5.9% 24.0% .098 .296 .233 .285 .331 .273
Don Kelly 160 8.1% 18.8% .063 .263 .217 .283 .280 .251
Brandon Barnes 367 4.9% 28.3% .100 .296 .217 .260 .317 .260
Chris Curley 373 4.8% 24.7% .124 .285 .228 .272 .352 .274
Cal Towey 470 10.0% 32.1% .112 .292 .199 .290 .311 .276
Alex Yarbrough 579 4.0% 24.7% .090 .302 .232 .262 .322 .256

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Christian Yelich 638 6.0 117 6 3.8 Carlos May
Giancarlo Stanton 484 6.8 140 3 3.8 Jay Buhner
Martin Prado 585 4.9 99 3 2.5 Keith Moreland
J.T. Realmuto 513 4.9 98 -2 2.5 Don Slaught
Marcell Ozuna 602 5.1 105 -3 2.5 Jermaine Dye
Dee Gordon 606 4.9 88 1 2.1 Delino DeShields
Derek Dietrich 436 5.0 106 -4 1.8 Rob Wilfong
Tomas Telis 423 3.7 77 2 1.2 Tom Lampkin
Justin Bour 428 5.4 110 -1 1.0 Larry Sheets
Adeiny Hechavarria 552 3.5 73 3 0.9 Craig Reynolds
Brian Anderson 495 3.6 77 2 0.8 Jim Deschaine
Moises Sierra 300 4.5 93 3 0.7 George Hinshaw
Xavier Scruggs 475 4.5 99 -1 0.7 Chris Cron
Matt Juengel 520 4.0 83 -4 0.6 Dave Meliah
Ramon Cabrera 370 3.5 73 -2 0.5 Ken Huckaby
Austin Nola 487 3.1 66 6 0.5 Osmani Estrada
J.T. Riddle 460 3.4 70 1 0.5 Rod Correia
A.J. Ellis 237 3.6 80 -3 0.5 Chad Kreuter
Miguel Rojas 329 3.4 71 2 0.4 Rey Sanchez
Peter Mooney 371 3.1 66 1 0.3 Gavin Jackson
Chris Hoo 253 2.6 53 2 0.2 Fausto Tejero
Matt den Dekker 433 3.5 73 4 0.2 Nate Murphy
Robert Andino 379 3.0 60 2 0.1 Pete Mackanin
Ichiro Suzuki 353 3.9 78 1 0.1 Jim Eisenreich
Carlos Paulino 172 2.8 61 0 0.1 Tony DeFrancesco
David Lough 254 3.5 77 3 0.1 Ryan Fleming
Isaac Galloway 464 2.8 56 8 0.1 Basilio Cabrera
Cam Maron 252 3.3 68 -4 0.1 Dave Miley
Cole Figueroa 388 3.7 78 -4 0.0 Denny Doyle
Cole Gillespie 274 3.7 75 1 0.0 Hal Lee
Destin Hood 466 3.5 77 3 0.0 Robert Jones
Ryan Jackson 317 2.7 57 0 -0.2 Corey D. Hart
Zach Lutz 164 3.2 71 -3 -0.2 Dave Matranga
Rodrigo Vigil 272 2.8 53 -1 -0.3 Raul Chavez
Austin Dean 562 3.7 80 -2 -0.4 Ben Candelaria
Tyler Moore 242 3.7 80 -2 -0.4 Darrell Whitmore
Chris Johnson 353 3.7 76 1 -0.4 Chris Saunders
Jeff Francoeur 317 3.7 79 -3 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore
Yefri Perez 434 2.6 48 4 -0.5 Marquis Riley
Garrett Weber 375 3.3 69 -6 -0.6 Mendy Lopez
Don Kelly 160 2.7 56 0 -0.7 Brian Jordan
Brandon Barnes 367 2.7 58 4 -0.8 Adam Shabala
Chris Curley 373 3.3 70 -2 -1.0 Caonabo Cosme
Cal Towey 470 2.9 66 -6 -1.5 Mark Budzinski
Alex Yarbrough 579 2.9 60 -6 -1.5 Mike Turgeon

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Wei-Yin Chen L 31 25 25 147.0 117 31 19 146 65 61
Edinson Volquez R 33 29 29 168.3 125 66 18 165 85 79
Adam Conley L 27 23 22 121.0 101 50 12 116 58 54
Tom Koehler R 31 29 29 163.7 127 68 21 162 86 80
Justin Nicolino L 25 30 28 162.3 79 36 19 180 87 81
Kyle Barraclough R 27 73 0 73.3 105 46 4 49 27 25
Dillon Peters L 24 21 21 112.3 74 31 14 120 58 54
A.J. Ramos R 30 66 0 62.7 73 33 4 48 22 21
Jeff Locke L 29 28 23 141.7 96 51 17 147 78 73
Luis Castillo R 24 31 22 117.7 81 38 15 122 64 60
David Phelps R 30 62 0 64.3 52 23 6 58 27 25
Jose Urena R 25 33 22 130.0 87 42 16 136 72 67
Junichi Tazawa R 31 58 0 54.7 56 14 6 48 22 21
Nick Wittgren R 26 56 0 64.7 54 14 8 63 28 26
Brad Ziegler R 37 59 0 58.0 44 20 5 55 25 23
Dustin McGowan R 35 56 0 61.3 56 30 6 53 27 25
Brian Ellington R 26 54 0 63.0 66 36 5 53 28 26
Matt Tomshaw L 28 25 17 106.0 73 27 16 115 60 56
Odrisamer Despaigne R 30 30 17 114.0 75 41 12 116 64 60
Kyle Lobstein L 27 28 14 101.7 71 38 12 104 57 53
Frank Garces L 27 50 8 90.0 72 36 12 88 47 44
Drew Steckenrider R 26 45 0 51.3 53 29 4 45 24 22
Dylan Axelrod R 31 25 21 116.7 75 36 17 125 67 63
Jake Esch R 27 25 25 128.3 80 48 18 139 75 70
Austin Brice R 25 34 19 112.0 90 54 15 111 64 60
Raudel Lazo L 28 39 0 48.0 37 13 6 48 22 21
Stephen Fife R 30 14 12 58.0 38 23 7 61 33 31
Hunter Cervenka L 27 57 0 49.7 51 30 4 41 24 22
Chris Narveson L 35 22 13 80.0 61 32 13 82 46 43
Kelvin Marte L 29 29 12 93.7 57 34 12 99 54 50
Cory Luebke L 32 13 2 21.7 21 9 3 21 12 11
Caleb Thielbar L 30 36 0 36.7 26 16 3 36 18 17
Jo-Jo Reyes L 32 25 7 67.7 42 27 8 71 39 36
Elvis Araujo L 25 51 0 48.7 46 26 5 46 26 24
Javy Guerra R 31 38 0 43.7 37 26 5 41 24 22
Cody Hall R 29 35 0 45.3 35 19 5 45 25 23
Chris Reed L 27 29 11 87.3 65 44 12 88 52 49
Patrick Johnson R 28 31 10 76.3 61 33 13 80 46 43
Greg Nappo L 28 34 0 61.3 50 25 9 61 33 31
Tyler Kinley R 26 39 0 50.3 41 24 6 50 28 26
Scott Copeland R 29 24 22 122.7 68 55 16 133 76 71
Ryan Chaffee R 29 27 0 39.0 33 25 4 37 22 21
Tayron Guerrero R 26 47 0 52.7 46 30 7 50 30 28
Jarlin Garcia L 24 21 18 79.7 51 29 14 90 51 48
Nick Maronde L 27 37 6 60.3 51 30 9 62 39 36
Tyler Higgins R 26 36 0 55.3 32 17 8 62 33 31
Tyler Bremer R 27 42 0 66.0 51 32 10 68 40 37
Victor Payano L 24 25 19 106.0 77 64 17 111 73 68

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Wei-Yin Chen 147.0 618 18.9% 5.0% .283 3.73 3.97 91 98
Edinson Volquez 168.3 736 17.0% 9.0% .283 4.22 4.38 103 108
Adam Conley 121.0 529 19.1% 9.5% .291 4.02 4.15 98 102
Tom Koehler 163.7 721 17.6% 9.4% .282 4.40 4.57 108 113
Justin Nicolino 162.3 703 11.2% 5.1% .287 4.49 4.49 110 111
Kyle Barraclough 73.3 315 33.3% 14.6% .285 3.07 2.95 75 73
Dillon Peters 112.3 488 15.2% 6.4% .293 4.33 4.50 106 111
A.J. Ramos 62.7 269 27.1% 12.3% .282 3.02 3.27 74 81
Jeff Locke 141.7 623 15.4% 8.2% .286 4.64 4.49 113 111
Luis Castillo 117.7 513 15.8% 7.4% .288 4.59 4.61 112 114
David Phelps 64.3 274 19.0% 8.4% .274 3.50 3.95 86 98
Jose Urena 130.0 568 15.3% 7.4% .288 4.64 4.51 113 111
Junichi Tazawa 54.7 226 24.8% 6.2% .282 3.46 3.33 85 82
Nick Wittgren 64.7 271 19.9% 5.2% .286 3.62 3.82 89 94
Brad Ziegler 58.0 249 17.7% 8.0% .281 3.57 3.67 87 91
Dustin McGowan 61.3 267 21.0% 11.2% .272 3.67 4.00 90 99
Brian Ellington 63.0 278 23.7% 12.9% .287 3.71 3.93 91 97
Matt Tomshaw 106.0 460 15.9% 5.9% .293 4.75 4.71 116 116
Odrisamer Despaigne 114.0 499 15.0% 8.2% .285 4.74 4.45 116 110
Kyle Lobstein 101.7 447 15.9% 8.5% .286 4.69 4.50 115 111
Frank Garces 90.0 394 18.3% 9.1% .281 4.40 4.62 108 114
Drew Steckenrider 51.3 228 23.3% 12.7% .295 3.86 4.01 94 99
Dylan Axelrod 116.7 511 14.7% 7.0% .286 4.86 4.82 119 119
Jake Esch 128.3 572 14.0% 8.4% .289 4.91 5.03 120 124
Austin Brice 112.0 501 18.0% 10.8% .287 4.82 4.95 118 122
Raudel Lazo 48.0 205 18.0% 6.3% .286 3.94 4.15 96 102
Stephen Fife 58.0 258 14.7% 8.9% .290 4.81 4.79 118 118
Hunter Cervenka 49.7 220 23.2% 13.6% .278 3.99 3.93 98 97
Chris Narveson 80.0 354 17.2% 9.0% .283 4.84 5.12 118 127
Kelvin Marte 93.7 414 13.8% 8.2% .284 4.80 4.85 117 120
Cory Luebke 21.7 95 22.1% 9.5% .295 4.57 4.29 112 106
Caleb Thielbar 36.7 162 16.0% 9.9% .287 4.17 4.14 102 102
Jo-Jo Reyes 67.7 301 13.9% 9.0% .285 4.79 4.81 117 119
Elvis Araujo 48.7 218 21.1% 11.9% .295 4.44 4.23 109 105
Javy Guerra 43.7 198 18.7% 13.1% .283 4.53 4.83 111 119
Cody Hall 45.3 200 17.5% 9.5% .288 4.57 4.40 112 109
Chris Reed 87.3 394 16.5% 11.2% .283 5.05 5.10 124 126
Patrick Johnson 76.3 342 17.8% 9.7% .291 5.07 5.26 124 130
Greg Nappo 61.3 270 18.5% 9.3% .284 4.55 4.74 111 117
Tyler Kinley 50.3 225 18.2% 10.7% .292 4.65 4.72 114 117
Scott Copeland 122.7 556 12.2% 9.9% .285 5.21 5.26 127 130
Ryan Chaffee 39.0 179 18.4% 14.0% .287 4.85 4.75 119 117
Tayron Guerrero 52.7 238 19.3% 12.6% .283 4.78 5.05 117 125
Jarlin Garcia 79.7 358 14.2% 8.1% .292 5.42 5.43 133 134
Nick Maronde 60.3 273 18.7% 11.0% .295 5.37 5.08 131 125
Tyler Higgins 55.3 245 13.1% 6.9% .292 5.04 4.94 123 122
Tyler Bremer 66.0 298 17.1% 10.7% .289 5.05 5.20 124 129
Victor Payano 106.0 493 15.6% 13.0% .286 5.77 5.77 141 143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Wei-Yin Chen 147.0 7.16 1.90 1.16 106 2.4 Greg Swindell
Edinson Volquez 168.3 6.68 3.53 0.96 94 1.7 Kirk McCaskill
Adam Conley 121.0 7.51 3.72 0.89 99 1.6 Bill Krueger
Tom Koehler 163.7 6.98 3.74 1.15 90 1.3 Jamey Wright
Justin Nicolino 162.3 4.38 2.00 1.05 88 1.1 Blaine Beatty
Kyle Barraclough 73.3 12.89 5.65 0.49 129 1.0 Jim Kern
Dillon Peters 112.3 5.93 2.48 1.12 92 1.0 Abe Alvarez
A.J. Ramos 62.7 10.48 4.74 0.57 132 0.9 Mark Clear
Jeff Locke 141.7 6.10 3.24 1.08 86 0.6 Gorman Heimueller
Luis Castillo 117.7 6.19 2.91 1.15 86 0.6 Thomas Biko
David Phelps 64.3 7.28 3.22 0.84 113 0.6 Mike DeJean
Jose Urena 130.0 6.02 2.91 1.11 86 0.5 Jake Joseph
Junichi Tazawa 54.7 9.21 2.30 0.99 115 0.5 Mark Huismann
Nick Wittgren 64.7 7.51 1.95 1.11 110 0.5 Jeff Tam
Brad Ziegler 58.0 6.83 3.10 0.78 111 0.5 Greg Minton
Dustin McGowan 61.3 8.22 4.40 0.88 108 0.4 Turk Lown
Brian Ellington 63.0 9.43 5.14 0.71 107 0.4 Mark Acre
Matt Tomshaw 106.0 6.20 2.29 1.36 83 0.3 Michael Bacsik
Odrisamer Despaigne 114.0 5.92 3.24 0.95 84 0.3 Brian Cooper
Kyle Lobstein 101.7 6.28 3.36 1.06 85 0.3 Rich Rundles
Frank Garces 90.0 7.20 3.60 1.20 90 0.3 Keith Helton
Drew Steckenrider 51.3 9.30 5.09 0.70 103 0.2 Brad Voyles
Dylan Axelrod 116.7 5.78 2.78 1.31 82 0.2 R.A. Dickey
Jake Esch 128.3 5.61 3.37 1.26 81 0.2 Steve Stemle
Austin Brice 112.0 7.23 4.34 1.21 82 0.1 Ramon Manon
Raudel Lazo 48.0 6.94 2.44 1.13 101 0.1 Shawn Barton
Stephen Fife 58.0 5.90 3.57 1.09 82 0.1 Carlos Chantres
Hunter Cervenka 49.7 9.24 5.43 0.72 99 0.1 Phil Norton
Chris Narveson 80.0 6.86 3.60 1.46 82 0.1 Chris Michalak
Kelvin Marte 93.7 5.47 3.27 1.15 83 0.1 Jeff Wilson
Cory Luebke 21.7 8.71 3.73 1.24 87 0.0 Jason Brosnan
Caleb Thielbar 36.7 6.38 3.92 0.74 95 0.0 Jim Brewer
Jo-Jo Reyes 67.7 5.58 3.59 1.06 83 0.0 Johnny Schmitz
Elvis Araujo 48.7 8.50 4.80 0.92 89 -0.2 Jeff Ridgway
Javy Guerra 43.7 7.62 5.35 1.03 87 -0.2 Jason Bullard
Cody Hall 45.3 6.95 3.77 0.99 87 -0.2 Keith Shepherd
Chris Reed 87.3 6.70 4.54 1.24 79 -0.2 Mike Matthews
Patrick Johnson 76.3 7.20 3.89 1.53 78 -0.3 Mumba Rivera
Greg Nappo 61.3 7.34 3.67 1.32 87 -0.3 Chris Michalak
Tyler Kinley 50.3 7.34 4.29 1.07 85 -0.3 Mark Zamarripa
Scott Copeland 122.7 4.99 4.03 1.17 76 -0.3 Robert Ellis
Ryan Chaffee 39.0 7.62 5.77 0.92 82 -0.3 Paul Giel
Tayron Guerrero 52.7 7.86 5.12 1.20 83 -0.4 Brett Wayne
Jarlin Garcia 79.7 5.76 3.27 1.58 73 -0.4 Travis Baptist
Nick Maronde 60.3 7.61 4.48 1.34 74 -0.6 Chad Miles
Tyler Higgins 55.3 5.21 2.77 1.30 79 -0.6 Adalberto Mendez
Tyler Bremer 66.0 6.95 4.36 1.36 79 -0.7 Bill Pulsipher
Victor Payano 106.0 6.54 5.43 1.44 69 -1.1 Ramiro Martinez

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2017 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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southie
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southie

I was still hoping to see a Jose Fernandez projection…