2017 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Miami / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
The advantage, for a club, of embracing mediocrity is that it permits them to allocate plate appearances and innings to players who possess both clear strengths and obvious weaknesses. Odubel Herrera (609 PA, 3.6 zWAR) is perhaps the purest expression of this strategy and its benefits in all of baseball. Acquired by the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft and promptly handed a starting role at a position he’d basically never played, Herrera has produced roughly four wins each of the last two seasons. Szymborski’s computer suggests something approximating a third consecutive four-win campaign is probable. He’s an unambiguous success story.

Beyond Herrera, there isn’t much in the way of present impact talent. Maikel Franco (581, 2.6) is the only other likely starter to receive a projection better than two wins. Of some interest perhaps is the forecast for Cesar Hernandez (541, 1.7). The author of a four-win season in 2016, he’s forecast for only about half that in 2017. This isn’t surprising, necessarily: a not insignificant portion of Hernandez’s value last season was the product of a .363 BABIP and +13.9 UZR. ZiPS calls for a .340 BABIP and -1 fielding mark, instead.

Pitchers
The ZiPS figures for the Milwaukee Brewers revealed something less than a perfect correlation between the probable “true talent” of that club’s starters and the order in which they’re likely to be deployed. Also in the midst of a rebuild, Philadelphia’s rotation is subject to a similar phenomenon. Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson (142.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR), who returns after accepting the club’s qualifying offer, is likely to earn the Opening Day assignment. By the projections, however, he’s the club’s fourth-best pitcher after Aaron Nola (184.0 IP, 3.3 zWAR), Jerad Eickhoff (184.1, 2.7), and Vince Velasquez (139.2, 2.2).

A brief examination of Joaquin Benoit’s (44.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR) player page reveals that the 2017 season will represent his 16th as a major-league pitcher. He recorded one of the highest average fastball velocities of his career last year, his age-38 season. He’s projected to produce the lowest ERA on the club by some measure. Even after Benoit, Philadelphia has a number of pitchers capable of handling high-leverage innings: Hector Neris (78.0 IP, 84 ERA-), Pat Neshek (46.1, 80), and Edubray Ramos (74.0, 88) are all quite strong on a per-inning level.

Bench/Prospects
Shortstop J.P. Crawford (550 PA, 2.3 zWAR) isn’t likely to occupy a place on Philadelphia’s Opening Day roster. As soon as he joins the club, however, he’ll represent one of its best players. Just 22, he already profiles as a league-average sort. Corner-type Richie Shaffer (528, 1.5) might merit a trial at the major-league level — although it’ll have to be with Cincinnati, who claimed him off waivers. First baseman Rhys Hoskins (515, 1.3) receives the top projection among rookie-eligible players who aren’t J.P. Crawford.

Among those pitchers to whom Philadelphia might turn for help in the rotation, righty Nick Pivetta (135.2 IP, 0.8 zWAR) earns the top forecast. Now 25, Mark Appel (123.1, 0.5) hasn’t developed the way one might have hoped for a former No. 1 pick. That said, his projection suggests he might have some use in the majors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phillies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Odubel Herrera L 25 CF 609 78 155 27 5 11 47 20 7
Maikel Franco R 24 3B 581 75 144 30 2 23 90 2 0
J.P. Crawford L 22 SS 550 65 122 21 4 9 49 10 6
Michael Saunders L 30 LF 427 55 93 19 3 16 48 3 3
Cesar Hernandez B 27 2B 541 63 131 15 8 4 39 17 9
Richie Shaffer R 26 3B 528 61 105 27 1 20 58 3 1
Freddy Galvis B 27 SS 551 60 126 21 5 14 59 10 3
Rhys Hoskins R 24 1B 515 72 113 22 2 19 75 4 3
Cameron Rupp R 28 C 348 33 74 16 1 11 41 1 0
Aaron Altherr R 26 RF 462 55 94 22 3 13 57 11 4
Dylan Cozens L 23 RF 546 76 120 27 4 19 85 14 3
Andrew Knapp B 25 C 432 49 89 20 2 10 44 2 3
Howie Kendrick R 33 LF 528 63 129 23 3 8 48 8 3
Brock Stassi L 27 1B 468 57 104 20 2 12 53 2 2
Nick Williams L 23 LF 539 68 125 25 6 18 68 7 5
Andrew Pullin L 23 LF 466 59 116 20 4 13 66 0 2
Jesmuel Valentin B 23 2B 532 60 119 22 6 7 46 17 8
Tommy Joseph R 25 1B 301 42 73 14 0 16 46 0 1
Cedric Hunter L 29 RF 437 53 101 21 2 15 58 7 4
Taylor Featherston R 27 3B 429 49 89 19 4 10 42 7 3
Roman Quinn B 24 CF 392 47 84 13 4 6 33 26 10
Jorge Alfaro R 24 C 412 47 87 17 2 12 45 3 3
Scott Kingery R 23 2B 496 54 114 22 2 6 40 16 5
Bryan Holaday R 29 C 206 20 45 10 1 4 21 1 1
Carlos Tocci R 21 CF 587 61 135 24 3 6 47 11 10
Peter Bourjos R 30 RF 320 39 69 13 5 6 23 6 4
Osmel Aguila R 27 CF 326 40 62 17 0 8 31 2 0
Christian Marrero L 30 LF 329 41 68 12 1 10 36 1 1
Logan Moore L 26 C 251 24 47 9 1 5 23 0 1
Malquin Canelo R 22 SS 547 56 116 20 5 6 49 11 9
Andres Blanco B 33 3B 239 27 54 14 1 4 21 2 3
Cam Perkins R 26 CF 457 50 105 21 3 8 48 6 3
Harold Martinez R 27 3B 330 33 70 12 1 7 32 1 1
Hector A. Gomez R 29 SS 406 42 85 22 3 10 39 6 4
Chace Numata B 24 C 276 26 58 10 0 2 19 2 1
Daniel Nava B 34 LF 305 30 65 12 0 5 26 2 1
Pedro Florimon B 30 LF 338 33 60 12 3 6 29 10 3
Jake Fox R 34 3B 364 44 77 17 0 15 48 0 0
Ryan Howard L 37 1B 370 41 74 16 0 21 65 0 1
Jimmy Paredes B 28 RF 361 37 81 16 2 9 35 7 3
Tyler Goeddel R 24 LF 401 40 82 12 4 8 37 10 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Odubel Herrera 609 7.2% 22.3% .127 .354 .281 .340 .408 .332
Maikel Franco 581 6.5% 17.0% .193 .291 .270 .322 .463 .330
J.P. Crawford 550 10.0% 17.1% .115 .291 .249 .325 .364 .310
Michael Saunders 427 11.2% 25.1% .196 .304 .250 .336 .446 .337
Cesar Hernandez 541 9.2% 19.8% .089 .340 .271 .341 .360 .318
Richie Shaffer 528 9.3% 30.9% .189 .290 .222 .297 .411 .306
Freddy Galvis 551 4.5% 20.0% .142 .285 .246 .281 .388 .286
Rhys Hoskins 515 8.2% 28.9% .180 .315 .245 .315 .424 .322
Cameron Rupp 348 6.3% 28.7% .159 .299 .231 .287 .389 .292
Aaron Altherr 462 7.6% 29.0% .162 .300 .227 .298 .389 .303
Dylan Cozens 546 6.8% 36.6% .182 .349 .238 .289 .420 .309
Andrew Knapp 432 7.2% 30.6% .137 .310 .225 .287 .362 .286
Howie Kendrick 528 7.4% 16.7% .110 .311 .267 .324 .377 .308
Brock Stassi 468 9.4% 18.4% .144 .285 .249 .321 .393 .312
Nick Williams 539 3.9% 26.2% .178 .301 .245 .277 .424 .302
Andrew Pullin 466 3.9% 20.6% .152 .308 .263 .297 .415 .305
Jesmuel Valentin 532 5.5% 18.8% .112 .291 .243 .291 .355 .290
Tommy Joseph 301 4.7% 20.3% .223 .278 .263 .303 .486 .333
Cedric Hunter 437 5.3% 16.7% .172 .267 .248 .290 .420 .308
Taylor Featherston 429 4.9% 28.0% .143 .293 .224 .272 .367 .280
Roman Quinn 392 6.9% 28.1% .110 .325 .237 .297 .346 .303
Jorge Alfaro 412 3.9% 32.8% .147 .310 .225 .267 .372 .279
Scott Kingery 496 4.8% 20.8% .095 .304 .247 .291 .343 .287
Bryan Holaday 206 4.4% 20.9% .126 .283 .237 .279 .363 .279
Carlos Tocci 587 4.8% 20.3% .088 .305 .249 .289 .337 .282
Peter Bourjos 320 5.6% 25.3% .141 .307 .237 .292 .378 .291
Osmel Aguila 326 6.1% 31.3% .139 .290 .210 .282 .349 .277
Christian Marrero 329 10.6% 21.6% .152 .276 .235 .320 .388 .309
Logan Moore 251 6.0% 31.1% .113 .280 .203 .253 .316 .249
Malquin Canelo 547 4.8% 23.9% .094 .290 .227 .265 .320 .265
Andres Blanco 239 6.3% 18.0% .129 .292 .249 .308 .378 .301
Cam Perkins 457 4.4% 18.2% .119 .285 .245 .284 .364 .283
Harold Martinez 330 3.9% 29.7% .113 .303 .225 .259 .338 .259
Hector A. Gomez 406 3.4% 26.1% .151 .279 .222 .256 .373 .273
Chace Numata 276 5.8% 15.9% .063 .267 .228 .280 .291 .257
Daniel Nava 305 8.5% 19.7% .101 .293 .243 .326 .345 .298
Pedro Florimon 338 7.7% 31.4% .118 .276 .196 .260 .314 .258
Jake Fox 364 5.8% 28.8% .185 .284 .229 .283 .414 .297
Ryan Howard 370 5.9% 30.8% .230 .251 .216 .265 .446 .298
Jimmy Paredes 361 4.7% 28.3% .138 .312 .238 .275 .376 .285
Tyler Goeddel 401 6.7% 24.9% .120 .284 .223 .283 .343 .282

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Odubel Herrera 609 5.3 104 6 3.6 Lloyd Moseby
Maikel Franco 581 5.5 111 -6 2.6 Aramis Ramirez
J.P. Crawford 550 4.2 89 3 2.3 Ernest Riles
Michael Saunders 427 5.3 112 1 1.7 Ryan Church
Cesar Hernandez 541 4.5 92 -1 1.7 Jose Offerman
Richie Shaffer 528 4.3 91 -2 1.5 Other Eric Chavez
Freddy Galvis 551 4.0 81 3 1.5 Ronny Cedeno
Rhys Hoskins 515 4.7 100 4 1.3 Justin Huber
Cameron Rupp 348 4.0 83 -1 1.1 Alvin Colina
Aaron Altherr 462 4.1 86 5 1.0 Jack Voigt
Dylan Cozens 546 4.5 91 -1 0.8 Myron White
Andrew Knapp 432 3.5 76 -3 0.8 Humberto Cota
Howie Kendrick 528 4.5 91 -1 0.8 Hector Lopez
Brock Stassi 468 4.5 94 2 0.7 Travis Lee
Nick Williams 539 4.1 88 3 0.7 Randy Byers
Andrew Pullin 466 4.4 92 1 0.7 Cameron Drew
Jesmuel Valentin 532 3.7 76 1 0.7 Jorge Alvarez
Tommy Joseph 301 5.3 111 -3 0.6 Justin Morneau
Cedric Hunter 437 4.3 91 1 0.6 Rich Butler
Taylor Featherston 429 3.5 73 3 0.6 Cliff Anderson
Roman Quinn 392 3.8 76 -1 0.5 Herm Winningham
Jorge Alfaro 412 3.4 73 -3 0.5 Bill Hayes
Scott Kingery 496 3.7 73 0 0.5 Kelly Paris
Bryan Holaday 206 3.5 74 0 0.5 Mike DiFelice
Carlos Tocci 587 3.3 71 4 0.4 Miguel Negron
Peter Bourjos 320 3.8 82 3 0.3 Jarvis Brown
Osmel Aguila 326 3.4 72 0 0.2 Julian Martinez
Christian Marrero 329 4.3 93 -3 0.2 Ryan McGuire
Logan Moore 251 2.6 55 3 0.2 Alan Probst
Malquin Canelo 547 2.8 59 6 0.2 Juan Ciriaco
Andres Blanco 239 4.0 87 -3 0.1 Jerry Royster
Cam Perkins 457 3.7 76 -3 0.1 Frank Diaz
Harold Martinez 330 3.0 62 4 0.1 John Hotchkiss
Hector A. Gomez 406 3.3 69 -3 -0.1 Seth Bynum
Chace Numata 276 2.9 57 -2 -0.1 Rogelio Arias
Daniel Nava 305 4.0 84 -4 -0.1 Shane Spencer
Pedro Florimon 338 2.9 56 7 -0.2 Lee Tinsley
Jake Fox 364 4.1 88 -10 -0.2 Earl Snyder
Ryan Howard 370 4.0 90 -5 -0.5 Deron Johnson
Jimmy Paredes 361 3.7 76 -4 -0.6 Shawn Garrett
Tyler Goeddel 401 3.4 70 -2 -0.7 Luis Montanez

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Aaron Nola R 24 32 32 184.0 162 39 18 180 79 74
Jerad Eickhoff R 26 31 31 184.3 169 45 26 178 86 80
Vince Velasquez R 25 25 25 139.7 163 42 20 129 63 59
Jeremy Hellickson R 30 26 26 142.0 120 38 20 143 72 67
Clay Buchholz R 32 27 20 127.7 107 42 17 125 65 61
Nick Pivetta R 24 26 26 135.7 128 54 21 132 74 69
Hector Neris R 28 70 0 78.0 91 30 9 66 32 30
Phil Klein R 28 36 10 81.3 87 33 10 74 40 37
Joaquin Benoit R 39 48 0 44.0 46 20 5 37 16 15
Pat Neshek R 36 58 0 46.3 47 11 6 41 18 17
Edubray Ramos R 24 62 0 74.0 73 18 9 68 32 30
Mark Appel R 25 21 21 123.3 108 54 18 121 70 65
Jake Thompson R 23 27 27 149.3 111 55 23 156 86 80
Alec Asher R 25 21 21 107.7 73 21 19 117 61 57
Ben Lively R 25 26 26 141.0 119 49 23 144 82 77
Thomas Eshelman R 23 25 25 124.7 108 32 22 133 73 68
Michael Mariot R 28 38 0 56.3 56 19 6 53 27 25
Zach Eflin R 23 23 23 128.7 82 28 20 140 76 71
David Hernandez R 32 53 0 52.7 57 22 7 50 26 24
Luis Garcia R 30 65 0 63.3 60 34 6 62 31 29
Cesar Ramos L 33 38 6 66.3 51 25 10 70 36 34
Brock Stassi L 27 3 0 3.0 3 1 1 3 2 2
Joely Rodriguez L 25 66 0 80.0 65 31 9 79 41 38
Tom Windle L 25 45 0 45.3 43 21 5 44 24 22
Sean Burnett L 34 30 0 25.7 19 9 3 26 14 13
Victor Arano R 22 47 0 76.7 83 25 13 73 40 37
Dalier Hinojosa R 31 40 0 53.0 52 28 7 49 28 26
Jeanmar Gomez R 29 61 0 67.7 46 22 7 73 35 33
Frank Herrmann R 33 37 0 42.7 40 13 7 43 24 22
Mark Leiter R 26 25 20 119.3 97 41 20 126 74 69
Severino Gonzalez R 24 49 0 84.7 69 17 11 88 45 42
Adam Morgan L 27 24 23 127.3 97 36 22 140 79 74
Miguel Nunez R 24 54 0 54.0 62 32 8 49 30 28
Colton Murray R 27 53 0 72.7 72 33 10 69 40 37
Bobby LaFromboise L 31 40 0 39.7 33 17 7 41 24 22
Drew Anderson R 23 15 14 62.7 58 30 12 65 42 39
Mario Hollands L 28 33 0 38.0 30 18 6 40 25 23
Pedro Beato R 30 58 0 61.0 53 26 10 62 36 34
Jeremy Bleich L 30 31 5 58.3 39 26 9 64 39 36
James Russell L 31 48 6 62.7 42 20 11 70 41 38
Greg Infante R 29 43 1 54.7 52 36 8 54 35 33
Alberto Tirado R 22 30 7 63.7 75 63 11 59 47 44
Elniery Garcia L 22 20 19 103.7 67 44 20 118 74 69
Ricardo Pinto R 23 24 23 134.0 89 50 28 153 95 89

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Aaron Nola 184.0 771 21.0% 5.1% .298 3.62 3.45 88 81
Jerad Eickhoff 184.3 776 21.8% 5.8% .287 3.91 4.00 95 94
Vince Velasquez 139.7 590 27.6% 7.1% .299 3.80 3.62 92 85
Jeremy Hellickson 142.0 607 19.8% 6.3% .290 4.25 4.21 103 99
Clay Buchholz 127.7 550 19.5% 7.6% .286 4.30 4.35 104 102
Nick Pivetta 135.7 593 21.6% 9.1% .290 4.58 4.66 111 110
Hector Neris 78.0 330 27.6% 9.1% .291 3.46 3.58 84 84
Phil Klein 81.3 351 24.8% 9.4% .295 4.09 3.94 99 93
Joaquin Benoit 44.0 188 24.5% 10.4% .270 3.07 4.03 74 95
Pat Neshek 46.3 190 24.5% 5.7% .276 3.30 3.29 80 77
Edubray Ramos 74.0 308 23.7% 5.8% .286 3.65 3.57 88 84
Mark Appel 123.3 545 19.8% 9.9% .287 4.74 4.79 115 113
Jake Thompson 149.3 659 16.8% 8.3% .289 4.82 4.97 117 117
Alec Asher 107.7 461 15.8% 4.6% .287 4.76 4.90 115 115
Ben Lively 141.0 616 19.3% 8.0% .290 4.91 4.83 119 114
Thomas Eshelman 124.7 539 20.0% 5.9% .299 4.91 4.66 119 110
Michael Mariot 56.3 241 23.2% 7.9% .297 3.99 3.65 97 86
Zach Eflin 128.7 554 14.8% 5.1% .286 4.97 4.68 120 110
David Hernandez 52.7 230 24.8% 9.6% .303 4.10 3.95 99 93
Luis Garcia 63.3 286 21.0% 11.9% .301 4.12 3.85 100 90
Cesar Ramos 66.3 294 17.3% 8.5% .291 4.61 4.74 112 111
Brock Stassi 3.0 13 23.1% 7.7% .250 6.00 6.52 145 153
Joely Rodriguez 80.0 350 18.6% 8.9% .290 4.27 4.26 104 100
Tom Windle 45.3 201 21.4% 10.4% .298 4.37 4.18 106 98
Sean Burnett 25.7 112 17.0% 8.0% .284 4.56 4.16 110 98
Victor Arano 76.7 328 25.3% 7.6% .296 4.34 4.32 105 102
Dalier Hinojosa 53.0 236 22.0% 11.9% .286 4.42 4.58 107 108
Jeanmar Gomez 67.7 298 15.4% 7.4% .299 4.39 4.06 106 95
Frank Herrmann 42.7 184 21.7% 7.1% .295 4.64 4.43 112 104
Mark Leiter 119.3 525 18.5% 7.8% .294 5.20 4.95 126 116
Severino Gonzalez 84.7 359 19.2% 4.7% .298 4.46 3.95 108 93
Adam Morgan 127.3 558 17.4% 6.5% .296 5.23 4.83 127 113
Miguel Nunez 54.0 243 25.5% 13.2% .297 4.67 4.65 113 109
Colton Murray 72.7 320 22.5% 10.3% .294 4.58 4.48 111 105
Bobby LaFromboise 39.7 177 18.6% 9.6% .288 4.99 5.18 121 122
Drew Anderson 62.7 283 20.5% 10.6% .296 5.60 5.45 136 128
Mario Hollands 38.0 172 17.4% 10.5% .293 5.45 5.08 132 119
Pedro Beato 61.0 271 19.6% 9.6% .291 5.02 4.96 121 116
Jeremy Bleich 58.3 265 14.7% 9.8% .293 5.55 5.30 134 124
James Russell 62.7 278 15.1% 7.2% .291 5.46 5.13 132 121
Greg Infante 54.7 254 20.5% 14.2% .297 5.43 5.27 132 124
Alberto Tirado 63.7 313 24.0% 20.1% .300 6.22 6.23 151 146
Elniery Garcia 103.7 473 14.2% 9.3% .292 5.99 5.85 145 137
Ricardo Pinto 134.0 605 14.7% 8.3% .291 5.98 5.85 145 137

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Nola 184.0 7.92 1.91 0.88 108 3.3 Rick Wise
Jerad Eickhoff 184.3 8.25 2.20 1.27 100 2.7 David Bush
Vince Velasquez 139.7 10.50 2.71 1.29 103 2.2 Erik Hanson
Jeremy Hellickson 142.0 7.61 2.41 1.27 92 1.4 Mike Grace
Clay Buchholz 127.7 7.54 2.96 1.20 91 1.1 Kirk McCaskill
Nick Pivetta 135.7 8.49 3.58 1.39 85 0.8 Cliff Brantley
Hector Neris 78.0 10.50 3.46 1.04 113 0.7 Derrick Turnbow
Phil Klein 81.3 9.63 3.65 1.11 95 0.7 Eric Hull
Joaquin Benoit 44.0 9.45 4.00 1.11 127 0.6 Roberto Hernandez
Pat Neshek 46.3 9.07 2.11 1.11 118 0.5 Jeff Reardon
Edubray Ramos 74.0 8.88 2.19 1.09 107 0.5 Manuel Corpas
Mark Appel 123.3 7.88 3.94 1.31 82 0.5 Greg Roscoe
Jake Thompson 149.3 6.69 3.31 1.39 81 0.4 Ted Kromy
Alec Asher 107.7 6.10 1.76 1.59 82 0.4 James Waring
Ben Lively 141.0 7.60 3.13 1.47 79 0.2 Landon Jacobsen
Thomas Eshelman 124.7 7.80 2.31 1.59 79 0.2 Rusty Meacham
Michael Mariot 56.3 8.95 3.04 0.96 98 0.1 Ernie Camacho
Zach Eflin 128.7 5.74 1.96 1.40 79 0.1 Bob Tewksbury
David Hernandez 52.7 9.74 3.76 1.20 95 0.1 Brian Williams
Luis Garcia 63.3 8.53 4.83 0.85 95 0.1 Sean Green
Cesar Ramos 66.3 6.92 3.39 1.36 85 0.0 Curt Young
Brock Stassi 3.0 9.00 3.00 3.00 65 -0.1 Rich Hinton
Joely Rodriguez 80.0 7.31 3.49 1.01 91 -0.1 David Wells
Tom Windle 45.3 8.54 4.17 0.99 89 -0.1 Carlos Vasquez
Sean Burnett 25.7 6.66 3.16 1.05 86 -0.1 Morrie Martin
Victor Arano 76.7 9.74 2.93 1.53 90 -0.1 Julian Heredia
Dalier Hinojosa 53.0 8.83 4.75 1.19 88 -0.1 Mike Cook
Jeanmar Gomez 67.7 6.12 2.93 0.93 89 -0.2 Jim Todd
Frank Herrmann 42.7 8.44 2.74 1.48 84 -0.2 Blas Minor
Mark Leiter 119.3 7.32 3.09 1.51 75 -0.3 Cheyenne Janke
Severino Gonzalez 84.7 7.33 1.81 1.17 87 -0.3 Randy Graham
Adam Morgan 127.3 6.86 2.54 1.55 75 -0.3 Michael Bacsik
Miguel Nunez 54.0 10.33 5.33 1.33 84 -0.3 Lariel Gonzalez
Colton Murray 72.7 8.92 4.09 1.24 85 -0.4 Jason Gilfillan
Bobby LaFromboise 39.7 7.49 3.86 1.59 78 -0.4 Joey Eischen
Drew Anderson 62.7 8.33 4.31 1.72 70 -0.4 Steve Gay
Mario Hollands 38.0 7.11 4.26 1.42 72 -0.6 Danny Young
Pedro Beato 61.0 7.82 3.84 1.48 78 -0.6 Jamie Emiliano
Jeremy Bleich 58.3 6.02 4.01 1.39 70 -0.7 Mark Watson
James Russell 62.7 6.03 2.87 1.58 71 -0.7 Rusty Gerhardt
Greg Infante 54.7 8.56 5.93 1.32 72 -0.8 James Warden
Alberto Tirado 63.7 10.60 8.91 1.55 63 -1.2 Bryan Wolff
Elniery Garcia 103.7 5.82 3.82 1.74 65 -1.2 Jeff Hundley
Ricardo Pinto 134.0 5.98 3.36 1.88 65 -1.6 Mike Redding

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2017 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Baltar
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Member
Baltar

I’m surprised the Phillies projections are this high. As did the Twins, they snuck up on me.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip

It’s the type of projection high enough it that could tempt a team into trying to push up the schedule and roll the dice on this year, but low enough that that would probably be a very bad idea. It does show the rebuild is showing some progress at least.