2018 Trade Value: Honorable Mentions

The industry places Javy Baez and Manny Machado just outside the top-50 players by trade value.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

All-Star week has arrived, which means a lot of things, like that the races for the 2018 postseason have begun to take shape (at least in the NL, where postseason races exist) and also that many of those who work in baseball are currently taking rushed, abbreviated vacations. Around here, though, it marks the time for a different tradition — namely, the start our annual Trade Value series.

The inimitable Dave Cameron did this list for 13 years, 10 of them for this website. He’s now moved on the Padres, though, and FanGraphs has somehow ended up with me in his place. This list wouldn’t be possible without the model established by Cameron, nor the help of Sean Dolinar, Dan Szymborski, and Carson Cistulli in putting together this year’s series. A special thanks is also due to industry friends who put up with much rougher early versions of this list, were generous with their time, and helped whip it into shape.

For those new to the series, it marks an attempt to answer the question “Who would bring back the most in trade if he were put on the market before the deadline?” What’s notable about this list — as opposed to the prospect types I assemble with Eric Longenhagen — is that it’s the only one for which my opinion doesn’t matter. The goal here isn’t for me to project anybody’s future value but rather to capture the opinions of the industry and how they value players in reality, right now.

I ran into some interesting quirks in industry preferences throughout the construction of this list, and I’ll address those as the series continues. As you might guess, however, not every player possesses the same appeal to every club. Max Scherzer, for example — who is guaranteed nine figures over the next three-and-a-half seasons — has a dramatically different value to the Rays than the Yankees due to their payroll.

In response to that, I have somewhat ignored the two extremes of the market-size and payroll spectrums, instead trying to figure how the clubs in the middle would handle this question. Clubs like Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia all have the ability to absorb that kind money, but would also probably like to avoid doing so. They’d like to win this year but not at the expense of multiple future years. Those teams would also love to have Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. but for different reasons.

There was one example in the top 10 of the list where opinions were so split between two dissimilar players that I went team-by-team projecting (sometimes being told the a team) which player would have greater appeal. If you’re a fan of a team at one extreme of the market-size spectrum, you’ll think how I ranked these two players (they rank third and fourth on the list) is crazy, while a fan on the other end of that spectrum may think the exact opposite.

Ultimately, one player won roughly 20 to 10, but the 10 teams are all big-market contenders, who would be the type to trade for players like this, making it even harder to wrap my arms around the issue. I could have opted to produce separate lists for big- and small-market clubs, but it turns out most people in the game with whom I spoke value roughly 40 of the 50 players here about the same. Only the expensive veterans and prospects inspire truly divergent opinions.

This isn’t an exact science. The type of player who appears on this list doesn’t get traded very often — and almost never for another player who appears here also. If a contending team is trading for one of the players who’ll appear here over the next few days, they’re likely surrendering a group of younger talents outside the top 50 or even 75 — so, again, this list doesn’t really come into play in that situation.

This factor is adjacent to the vein of risk-aversion running through some of these rankings, as reflected in conversations I had with executives. The approach of taking multiple players when trading a top-50 asset is common now; you can’t trade an elite asset for one player who, if he fails to materialize in the majors, just leaves you with nothing. There was also the meteoric rises up the list of touted prospects, some top-10 to -15 types, who had a scorching-hot six weeks of an MLB debut and went from off the list entirely to securely onto it. In a way, it makes some sense in terms of job security: if you trade for Juan Soto tomorrow and he flames out, no one blames you, but you might get fired if you cash in your chips for Fernando Tatis, Jr. in Double-A and he fails to compete in the majors.

To start off, we’ll look at the players who were on this list a year ago but who aren’t returning for a repeat appearance for one reason or another. Almost all of these players were among the 20-30 honorable mentions in contention for the list. For players like Archer, Carrasco, Martinez, and McCullers, they didn’t really fall off the list so much as they got a year older and have a year less control, allowing some other players to slide ahead of them. With few exceptions, players lose value as they gets closer to free agency. To sustain the previous year’s ranking, a player would have to either (a) perform better than he had the year before, or (b) sign a long-term extension. Naturally, the end of the list has a lot of turnover.

Players Not Returning from the 2017 List

In addition to that group of players, here are others who were in the mix for the list.

Controllable Corner Bats
Miguel Andujar, 3B, Yankees
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Tigers
Brandon Nimmo, RF, Mets
Matt Olson, 1B, Athletics
Kyle Schwarber, LF, Cubs

Some exciting young bats here that are all just missing small things, whether it be defensive value, consistency, or pitch selection.

Controllable Up-the-Middle Bats
Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox
Javier Baez, 2B, Cubs
Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals
Starling Marte, CF, Pirates
Trevor Story, SS, Rockies

Marte, Baez and Story are the flashy, high-upside options here but, like the previous group, all of these guys lack one thing that’s holding back their top-50 case.

Controllable Arms
Mike Clevinger, RHP, Indians
Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mariners
Josh Hader, LHP, Brewers
Sean Newcomb, LHP, Braves
Felipe Vazquez, LHP, Pirates

The Ken Giles deal established the market for controllable elite relievers, and Diaz, Hader, and Vazquez all fit that bill. Newcomb and Clevinger are having breakout years and could work their way onto the list next year if they can keep it up.

Deals Expiring After 2018 or 2019
Aaron Hicks, CF, Yankees
Bryce Harper, RF, Nationals
Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers
Manny Machado, SS, Orioles

Arenado and Goldschmidt are in this group, too, and you could also toss in the rest of the 2018 free-agent class, like Donaldson, Pollock, Kimbrel, Corbin, Keuchel, Dozier, etc. Hicks’ name may seem out of place here on talent, but he’s super cheap, is playing really well, and still has 1.5 years of control left.

Prospects on the Verge/Just Got There
Willy Adames, SS, Rays
Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays
Eloy Jimenez, RF, White Sox
Brendan Rodgers, SS, Rockies
Nick Senzel, 3B, Reds
Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros

Here’s the rest of the top 12 from our most recent prospect rankings (more updated ones coming soon). As noted above, any of these players could be securely on this list if they get called up and go on a 150 wRC+-level tear for six weeks.

Shrug Emoji
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Brewers
Max Muncy, 1B, Dodgers
Eddie Rosario, LF, Twins

These three hitters are all aged 26 to 28 and produced some version of an unexpected to WTF-level breakout this year. There isn’t a ton of speed, defense, or track record here, but all three are producing, relatively young, and offer years of control to their clubs. Last year we had Tommy Pham in this group, and he’s settled in as a solidly above-average everyday guy, which seems like the expectation for these three.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 Trade Value: Honorable Mentions by Kiley McDaniel!

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Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.

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dl80
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dl80

Because I like speculating, I am wondering who #3 and #4 are. They need to be controversial/debatable, so maybe guys who haven’t proven it for long enough but are cheap? To get that high, they probably can’t have come out of nowhere, so they were probably on last year’s list.

I’m thinking maybe Scherzer (#33 last year) and Jose Ramirez (#15 last year). Scherzer is due a lot of money and is in his mid-30s already, but he’s been so good so far. He could fall off a cliff tomorrow, though. And Ramirez is cheap and great but maybe people are skeptical because the power seems to have come out of the blue?

That being said, I also feel like it’s possible Ramirez is #1 this year.

james123
Member
james123

Probably Trout and Ohtani, Albies or Soto or someone else in the same vein.

dl80
Member
dl80

Ohtani makes some sense, but I can’t imagine any team wouldn’t want him, irrespective of the arm injury. He’s cheap for years. I think he could be #1 potentially.

soddingjunkmail
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soddingjunkmail

I agree everyone would want Ohtani, I just think they’d want Ramirez more.

He’s excellent, cheap, *and* healthy.

Groundout
Member
Groundout

Yeah Ramirez might be #1. Ohtani hasn’t stayed healthy yet and the rest of last year’s peak (Correa/Trout/Seager/Bryant) are notably closer to FA and haven’t done anything to adjust their projections upwards since this time last year.

Judge might be #2 and Severino might be the top-ranked pitcher. Benintendi probably made a big jump, too.

TKDC
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Member
TKDC

I think Altuve might be the big money guy in spot 4 (large market teams preferring him)

Adam
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Member
Adam

It’s Altuve vs Bregman

Pepper Martin
Member
Pepper Martin

Mike Trout and Aaron Judge?

HappyFunBall
Member
HappyFunBall

It’s not possible Ramirez is #1. It’s a sure thing. The remaining guaranteed portion of his contract costs about $1M/WAR from here out (depending on your protections). There’s something like $125M (or more) of surplus value there. The Indians could exercise both the 22 and 23 team options tomorrow and it’s still only $2M/WAR.

Oh. And he’ll be a 31 year old free agent even after those exercised options

tung_twista
Member
tung_twista

I would even argue 2018 midseason Ramirez is more valuable than 2016 midseason Trout.
Yes, 5 years of Ramirez is less valuable than 4 years of Trout, but not by $76M.

Erik.T
Member
Erik.T

He was talking about teams on both ends of the spectrum. I would think that Trout would have to be one of them, considering he helps teams looking to win now, but costs a lot of money and is only controlled through 2020. The opposite of that, someone not helping win now, and not expensive at the moment, would have to be Vladdy Jr. I would think. But I don’t know if Vladdy Jr. would be ranked anywhere near the top 4.

signedepsteinsmother
Member
Member
signedepsteinsmother

Trout would fall into one end of the spectrum $ and prospects wise.
And Ohtani is on a rookie contract. But I could see the risk vs. reward a team might weigh in making it work.

And the symmetry is just to perfect, make it so Kyley!

signedepsteinsmother
Member
Member
signedepsteinsmother

I’d guess Ramirez and Judge 1-2. Giving the bump to the younger infielder with absurd contract value.