2018 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
A perfectly average group of field players would produce something like 16 wins collectively in a season (that is, two wins times eight starters). The group of D-backs field players on the depth-chart image below is projected for roughly 15 wins collectively in 2018. By one definition, at least, this is basically an average offense.

By another, it’s not at all. Of the club’s eight likely starters, only one — Ketel Marte (599 PA, 1.7 zWAR) — receives a wins forecast that would round to 2.0. Paul Goldschmidt (638, 4.1), Jake Lamb (589, 2.5), and A.J. Pollock (510, 3.4) occupy one mode of this hypothetical distribution graph; the rest of the starting eight (minus Marte), the other.

The weakness for a club constructed thusly is its exposure to risk: an injury to one of the teams leaders can have catastrophic effects. This was the case for the 2016 edition of the D-backs, for example, when A.J. Pollock was unable to make his season debut until late August. The strength for such a club, meanwhile, is the ease of upgrading the roster. In the case of Arizona, finding an alternative to Yasmany Tomas (426, 0.4) in left field might represent the most expedient means to such an upgrade.

Pitchers
The D-backs rotation was objectively one of the strongest in the majors this past season, producing the second-highest collective WAR figure in the majors. All the principals from last year return to the 2018 iteration of the club. Zack Greinke (175.2 IP, 4.0 zWAR) and Robbie Ray (172.0, 3.9) both profile as frontline starters, while Patrick Corbin (168.0, 2.4), Zack Godley (155.0, 2.7), and Taijuan Walker (156.1, 2.2) each receive an above-average forecast. The projection for Godley, in particular, seems notable. ZiPS calls for the right-hander to retain much of what he exhibited in last year’s breakout.

When he was selected seventh overall by Arizona in the 2011 draft, Archie Bradley (75.7 IP, 73 ERA-, 1.7 zWAR) seemed to possess all the requisite tools to succeed as a major-league starter. Last season, he half-realized his potential, providing starter-level production for the D-backs (2.1 FIP-based WAR, 3.4 runs-allowed WAR), just as a reliever. He’ll return to the closer role again this season.

Bench/Prospects
As has been the case in recent seasons, Arizona employs a number of serviceable infield types. Nick Ahmed (335 PA, 0.8 zWAR), Daniel Descalso (341, -0.1), and Brandon Drury (546, 0.3) all recorded a decent number of major-league plate appearance last season. Domingo Leyba (455, 0.7) and Ildemaro Vargas (547, 0.7) didn’t record as many major-league plate appearances but are qualified to do so in some capacity, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer.

Right-hander Shelby Miller (144.0 IP, 99 ERA-, 1.8 zWAR) hasn’t experienced much success since joining the D-backs in a trade that sent both Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson to Atlanta. He’s recovering from a Tommy John procedure at the moment but is forecast to record roughly average numbers when he returns. Jared Miller (67.0 IP, 77 ERA-, 1.2) is of no relation to Shelby and has, in fact, never thrown a major-league pitch. Nevertheless, the giant left-hander does receive the second-best ERA projection among Arizona’s relievers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Paul Goldschmidt R 30 1B 638 101 153 33 2 31 108 18 5
A.J. Pollock R 30 CF 510 80 136 33 6 16 57 22 6
J.D. Martinez R 30 RF 548 81 142 32 3 39 102 4 1
Jake Lamb L 27 3B 589 79 130 30 6 26 94 5 3
Ketel Marte B 24 SS 599 73 154 32 7 9 54 13 5
Alex Avila L 31 C 331 34 62 12 0 11 36 0 1
David Peralta L 30 RF 530 66 134 27 6 15 61 7 3
Nick Ahmed R 28 SS 335 38 77 14 3 8 32 5 4
Chris Owings R 26 SS 472 53 118 26 5 10 54 16 3
Ildemaro Vargas B 26 2B 547 62 136 27 3 8 50 8 3
Domingo Leyba B 22 SS 455 50 108 24 2 10 46 4 2
Oswaldo Arcia L 27 RF 394 50 86 18 3 21 61 1 1
Michael Perez L 25 C 322 31 64 16 2 6 31 1 2
Cesar Puello R 27 LF 398 51 91 20 2 12 50 15 3
Ramon Flores L 26 RF 445 49 98 20 3 10 49 6 2
Christian Walker R 27 1B 587 75 134 29 4 24 84 3 2
Yasmany Tomas R 27 LF 426 51 110 23 2 21 68 2 2
Chris Herrmann L 30 C 239 31 47 11 2 5 29 4 0
Tony Renda R 27 3B 431 45 104 24 2 3 35 10 4
Brandon Drury R 25 2B 546 55 131 34 2 14 63 2 2
Jeremy Hazelbaker L 30 LF 333 40 70 13 6 11 41 11 3
John Ryan Murphy R 27 C 309 31 66 14 0 7 32 0 0
Carlos Rivero R 30 3B 448 45 101 20 1 13 49 1 1
Kris Negron R 32 SS 346 33 71 15 3 7 32 10 3
Reymond Fuentes L 27 CF 328 33 76 12 3 3 26 15 3
Hank Conger B 30 C 222 21 43 10 1 7 27 0 0
Travis Denker R 32 2B 223 28 48 9 0 7 25 0 0
Daniel Descalso L 31 2B 341 39 70 13 3 7 38 3 1
Kelly Dugan L 27 RF 349 39 74 17 1 11 42 3 1
Ronnie Freeman R 27 C 256 25 54 12 1 3 21 0 1
Jeff Mathis R 35 C 167 12 31 6 1 2 13 1 0
Jamie Westbrook R 23 2B 465 46 112 21 3 9 47 5 3
Jack Reinheimer R 25 SS 562 59 125 22 3 5 43 14 8
Evan Marzilli L 27 CF 456 45 83 14 6 5 32 10 7
Socrates Brito L 25 RF 450 48 104 17 7 10 47 10 4
Alberto Rosario R 31 C 189 15 42 8 0 0 12 2 0
Adam Rosales R 35 SS 283 29 59 13 1 7 34 2 2
Kevin Cron R 25 1B 562 64 119 27 0 24 75 1 0
Gregor Blanco L 34 RF 298 39 65 13 3 4 20 12 3
Angel Franco B 28 2B 239 21 52 10 1 2 16 2 2
Marty Herum R 26 3B 523 49 124 24 3 7 47 3 3
Josh Thole L 31 C 144 10 27 4 0 0 7 0 1
Kevin Medrano L 28 2B 382 36 88 17 2 2 28 4 3
Emilio Bonifacio B 33 CF 315 30 70 11 3 2 23 15 8
Jay Gonzalez L 26 RF 429 39 81 11 3 0 21 22 10
Rudy Flores L 27 LF 440 45 88 20 1 15 49 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Paul Goldschmidt 638 14.7% 22.4% .244 .334 .287 .395 .531 .384 131
A.J. Pollock 510 7.3% 14.7% .200 .317 .292 .347 .491 .355 112
J.D. Martinez 548 8.9% 26.1% .315 .328 .289 .354 .604 .393 137
Jake Lamb 589 11.5% 26.3% .235 .310 .254 .345 .489 .349 108
Ketel Marte 599 7.2% 13.7% .133 .315 .282 .333 .415 .320 90
Alex Avila 331 16.0% 33.8% .164 .333 .225 .352 .389 .327 94
David Peralta 530 7.4% 17.5% .175 .315 .279 .336 .453 .335 99
Nick Ahmed 335 5.7% 19.4% .142 .289 .248 .294 .390 .291 70
Chris Owings 472 4.9% 21.8% .150 .326 .268 .305 .417 .306 80
Ildemaro Vargas 547 4.9% 9.5% .112 .283 .268 .308 .381 .297 74
Domingo Leyba 455 6.6% 17.1% .138 .293 .257 .308 .395 .303 78
Oswaldo Arcia 394 8.1% 28.9% .247 .294 .244 .315 .491 .337 101
Michael Perez 322 8.1% 27.3% .131 .291 .220 .287 .351 .278 62
Cesar Puello 398 7.0% 24.6% .169 .320 .256 .330 .425 .325 93
Ramon Flores 445 10.8% 18.0% .145 .292 .253 .336 .398 .318 88
Christian Walker 587 7.8% 25.9% .205 .306 .252 .315 .458 .327 94
Yasmany Tomas 426 5.6% 25.1% .225 .326 .275 .317 .500 .343 104
Chris Herrmann 239 9.2% 25.9% .141 .284 .221 .297 .362 .286 67
Tony Renda 431 6.0% 11.6% .094 .293 .263 .313 .357 .292 71
Brandon Drury 546 5.5% 20.1% .158 .302 .258 .304 .416 .307 81
Jeremy Hazelbaker 333 8.1% 31.5% .193 .317 .233 .297 .427 .306 80
John Ryan Murphy 309 6.8% 18.8% .124 .266 .233 .282 .357 .276 61
Carlos Rivero 448 4.9% 23.2% .145 .286 .240 .277 .386 .282 64
Kris Negron 346 5.5% 26.0% .134 .292 .226 .282 .360 .278 62
Reymond Fuentes 328 5.8% 21.3% .090 .317 .252 .302 .342 .280 63
Hank Conger 222 8.1% 25.2% .165 .259 .215 .281 .380 .284 66
Travis Denker 223 9.0% 21.5% .152 .283 .244 .318 .396 .310 83
Daniel Descalso 341 11.1% 22.0% .134 .289 .235 .324 .369 .302 78
Kelly Dugan 349 6.3% 28.9% .165 .306 .235 .301 .400 .301 77
Ronnie Freeman 256 5.9% 24.6% .097 .295 .228 .275 .325 .260 50
Jeff Mathis 167 6.0% 31.1% .091 .287 .201 .253 .292 .237 35
Jamie Westbrook 465 3.4% 13.1% .123 .276 .255 .288 .377 .285 67
Jack Reinheimer 562 6.6% 19.8% .083 .297 .242 .295 .326 .273 58
Evan Marzilli 456 10.1% 28.9% .102 .291 .206 .292 .308 .267 55
Socrates Brito 450 4.4% 23.3% .143 .298 .243 .276 .386 .281 64
Alberto Rosario 189 4.2% 17.5% .045 .288 .236 .271 .281 .244 40
Adam Rosales 283 6.0% 29.3% .140 .304 .229 .281 .368 .279 62
Kevin Cron 562 5.9% 30.1% .191 .288 .230 .281 .421 .297 74
Gregor Blanco 298 10.7% 20.8% .118 .308 .247 .330 .365 .304 79
Angel Franco 239 4.6% 17.2% .081 .276 .233 .268 .314 .252 45
Marty Herum 523 3.4% 19.1% .103 .298 .251 .280 .354 .272 58
Josh Thole 144 8.3% 18.1% .031 .260 .209 .275 .240 .235 34
Kevin Medrano 382 5.2% 17.3% .077 .302 .251 .293 .328 .272 58
Emilio Bonifacio 315 5.7% 19.0% .080 .298 .243 .286 .323 .265 53
Jay Gonzalez 429 9.6% 30.8% .044 .321 .211 .287 .256 .248 42
Rudy Flores 440 4.8% 38.4% .163 .317 .215 .259 .378 .271 57

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Paul Goldschmidt 638 8.1 140 5 4.1 Derrek Lee
A.J. Pollock 510 6.7 116 5 3.4 Ken Landreaux
J.D. Martinez 548 8.2 144 -6 3.3 Frank Howard
Jake Lamb 589 6.1 115 -4 2.5 Jack Howell
Ketel Marte 599 5.3 95 -4 1.7 Tony Fernandez
Alex Avila 331 4.7 94 0 1.5 Eddie Taubensee
David Peralta 530 5.7 104 1 1.4 David DeJesus
Nick Ahmed 335 4.0 77 6 0.8 Jason Bowers
Chris Owings 472 4.9 87 -6 0.7 Shawon Dunston
Ildemaro Vargas 547 4.4 79 2 0.7 Mark Loretta
Domingo Leyba 455 4.4 83 -3 0.7 Brent Butler
Oswaldo Arcia 394 5.5 107 -5 0.5 Scott Bryant
Michael Perez 322 3.4 66 3 0.4 Andy Skeels
Cesar Puello 398 5.4 96 -5 0.4 Jerome Walton
Ramon Flores 445 4.9 91 -1 0.4 Jim Gosger
Christian Walker 587 5.2 99 -3 0.4 Steve Stanicek
Yasmany Tomas 426 5.8 109 -9 0.4 Wil Cordero
Chris Herrmann 239 3.9 72 -1 0.3 Randy Brown
Tony Renda 431 4.2 75 1 0.3 Mark DeRosa
Brandon Drury 546 4.6 86 -6 0.3 Joe Crede
Jeremy Hazelbaker 333 4.6 87 2 0.3 Michael Tucker
John Ryan Murphy 309 3.5 66 0 0.2 Brandon Marsters
Carlos Rivero 448 3.8 71 4 0.2 Jason Wood
Kris Negron 346 3.7 67 1 0.2 Kelly Dransfeldt
Reymond Fuentes 328 4.1 68 1 0.1 Elijah Bonaparte
Hank Conger 222 3.7 71 -3 0.0 Henry Blanco
Travis Denker 223 4.5 86 -5 -0.1 Andy Phillips
Daniel Descalso 341 4.2 81 -6 -0.1 George Strickland
Kelly Dugan 349 4.3 82 -1 -0.1 Brian Brady
Ronnie Freeman 256 3.0 56 1 -0.1 Matt Morgan
Jeff Mathis 167 2.6 42 2 -0.2 Frank Charles
Jamie Westbrook 465 3.9 73 -2 -0.2 Wilton Veras
Jack Reinheimer 562 3.4 63 0 -0.3 Wilson Delgado
Evan Marzilli 456 3.0 58 4 -0.3 Mark Budzinski
Socrates Brito 450 3.8 71 4 -0.4 Trent Oeltjen
Alberto Rosario 189 2.8 45 -1 -0.4 Charlie Greene
Adam Rosales 283 3.5 68 -4 -0.4 Jason Wood
Kevin Cron 562 4.2 80 1 -0.5 Greg Sain
Gregor Blanco 298 4.6 82 -7 -0.5 Jeff Davanon
Angel Franco 239 2.9 52 1 -0.6 Tom Veryzer
Marty Herum 523 3.5 65 0 -0.6 Ricky Bell
Josh Thole 144 2.1 37 -3 -0.7 Bob Swift
Kevin Medrano 382 3.4 63 -4 -0.8 Ever Magallanes
Emilio Bonifacio 315 3.3 59 -4 -0.9 Doug Dascenzo
Jay Gonzalez 429 2.6 44 5 -1.4 Darrell Dent
Rudy Flores 440 3.3 64 -5 -1.5 Jay Kirkpatrick

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Zack Greinke R 34 28 28 175.7 170 40 22 160 73 68
Robbie Ray L 26 31 31 172.0 231 73 21 145 74 69
Zack Godley R 28 28 26 155.0 165 64 19 144 74 69
Patrick Corbin L 28 31 28 168.0 148 55 23 177 86 80
Taijuan Walker R 25 28 28 156.3 144 52 25 154 81 76
Shelby Miller R 27 26 25 144.0 121 57 19 145 77 72
Archie Bradley R 25 69 0 75.7 89 29 7 64 30 28
Anthony Banda L 24 30 27 150.3 141 62 21 150 82 77
Jared Miller L 24 53 0 67.0 83 31 7 56 28 26
Jake Buchanan R 28 26 18 113.0 59 35 13 135 65 61
Andrew Chafin L 28 69 0 59.3 62 25 5 52 26 24
Randall Delgado R 28 46 3 66.0 64 25 7 63 30 28
Michael Blazek R 29 35 10 77.0 65 35 10 78 41 38
David Hernandez R 33 63 0 55.7 59 18 7 53 25 23
Jorge de la Rosa L 37 34 16 99.7 91 47 16 98 58 54
Rubby de la Rosa R 29 27 18 105.0 107 43 21 107 63 59
Yuhei Nakaushiro L 28 48 0 60.7 51 33 4 58 30 28
Ryan Atkinson R 25 24 24 113.7 114 69 19 115 72 67
Matt Koch R 27 21 16 90.0 51 25 14 106 55 51
Aaron Laffey L 33 21 13 80.7 49 30 11 93 48 45
Fernando Salas R 33 62 0 59.7 57 18 9 61 31 29
Joel Payamps R 24 27 25 135.3 83 45 23 159 87 81
Yoshihisa Hirano R 34 53 0 49.3 46 18 7 50 26 24
T.J. McFarland L 29 44 3 64.7 37 22 7 75 36 34
Louis Coleman R 32 49 0 55.3 59 31 7 52 30 28
Jake Barrett R 26 58 0 54.7 52 28 7 53 30 28
Jimmie Sherfy R 26 54 0 52.7 67 22 11 48 29 27
Taylor Clarke R 25 26 26 127.3 106 48 27 142 83 78
Brad Boxberger R 30 46 0 42.0 59 24 9 36 24 22
Joey Krehbiel R 25 52 0 56.7 65 33 9 53 32 30
Silvino Bracho R 25 58 0 57.0 72 22 12 53 32 30
Bud Jeter R 26 43 0 45.7 42 24 6 47 26 24
Braden Shipley R 26 28 24 137.7 93 53 26 161 91 85
Gabe Speier L 23 38 3 65.7 43 33 8 74 41 38
J.J. Hoover R 30 59 0 54.7 63 30 10 52 32 30
Tyler Pill R 28 22 20 113.7 76 38 23 136 76 71
Albert Suarez R 28 26 15 92.7 73 31 20 105 62 58
Neftali Feliz R 30 53 0 48.3 47 22 9 48 29 27
Ivan Pineyro R 26 24 17 96.0 72 32 20 112 64 60
J.R. Bradley R 26 35 1 41.7 37 22 6 44 26 24
Kris Medlen R 32 18 17 96.3 70 33 21 114 65 61
Brian Matusz L 31 29 2 32.7 31 13 8 36 21 20
Keegan Long R 24 46 1 65.0 40 27 10 74 41 38
Yoan Lopez R 25 18 7 42.3 44 25 9 44 29 27
Alex Young L 24 25 23 120.3 80 58 23 139 83 78
Frank Duncan R 26 25 24 137.3 89 41 29 169 95 89
Antonio Bastardo L 32 47 0 42.0 43 26 8 41 28 26
Daniel Gibson L 26 39 0 40.3 30 25 6 44 27 25
Mason McCullough R 25 48 0 47.3 61 50 6 40 31 29
Matt Stites R 28 36 0 38.3 27 25 5 42 26 24
Anthony Vasquez L 31 25 24 135.3 83 48 28 162 96 90
Miller Diaz R 26 29 8 66.0 57 46 13 73 49 46
Josh Taylor L 25 30 17 101.0 82 51 22 119 75 70

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Zack Greinke 175.7 727 23.4% 5.5% .279 3.48 3.53 76 80
Robbie Ray 172.0 734 31.5% 9.9% .308 3.61 3.38 79 77
Zack Godley 155.0 673 24.5% 9.5% .300 4.01 3.98 88 90
Patrick Corbin 168.0 736 20.1% 7.5% .305 4.29 4.18 94 95
Taijuan Walker 156.3 675 21.3% 7.7% .290 4.38 4.49 96 102
Shelby Miller 144.0 634 19.1% 9.0% .290 4.50 4.36 99 99
Archie Bradley 75.7 320 27.8% 9.1% .295 3.33 3.12 73 71
Anthony Banda 150.3 663 21.3% 9.4% .300 4.61 4.49 101 102
Jared Miller 67.0 288 28.8% 10.8% .299 3.49 3.56 77 81
Jake Buchanan 113.0 509 11.6% 6.9% .308 4.86 4.64 106 106
Andrew Chafin 59.3 255 24.3% 9.8% .290 3.64 3.28 80 75
Randall Delgado 66.0 286 22.4% 8.7% .296 3.82 3.73 84 85
Michael Blazek 77.0 344 18.9% 10.2% .294 4.44 4.60 97 105
David Hernandez 55.7 238 24.8% 7.6% .303 3.72 3.70 81 84
Jorge de la Rosa 99.7 444 20.5% 10.6% .288 4.88 4.89 107 111
Rubby de la Rosa 105.0 465 23.0% 9.2% .296 5.06 4.98 111 113
Yuhei Nakaushiro 60.7 273 18.7% 12.1% .297 4.15 4.11 91 94
Ryan Atkinson 113.7 525 21.7% 13.1% .304 5.30 5.30 116 121
Matt Koch 90.0 401 12.7% 6.2% .301 5.10 5.01 112 114
Aaron Laffey 80.7 365 13.4% 8.2% .303 5.02 4.94 110 112
Fernando Salas 59.7 258 22.1% 7.0% .301 4.37 3.96 96 90
Joel Payamps 135.3 610 13.6% 7.4% .302 5.39 5.32 118 121
Yoshihisa Hirano 49.3 216 21.3% 8.3% .303 4.38 4.41 96 100
T.J. McFarland 64.7 291 12.7% 7.6% .306 4.73 4.39 104 100
Louis Coleman 55.3 249 23.7% 12.4% .302 4.55 4.40 100 100
Jake Barrett 54.7 245 21.2% 11.4% .295 4.61 4.40 101 100
Jimmie Sherfy 52.7 228 29.4% 9.6% .296 4.61 4.75 101 108
Taylor Clarke 127.3 572 18.5% 8.4% .300 5.51 5.57 121 127
Brad Boxberger 42.0 186 31.7% 12.9% .293 4.71 4.85 103 110
Joey Krehbiel 56.7 256 25.4% 12.9% .301 4.76 4.83 104 110
Silvino Bracho 57.0 246 29.3% 8.9% .299 4.74 4.63 104 105
Bud Jeter 45.7 208 20.2% 11.5% .308 4.73 4.73 104 108
Braden Shipley 137.7 627 14.8% 8.5% .301 5.56 5.55 122 126
Gabe Speier 65.7 304 14.1% 10.9% .306 5.21 5.08 114 116
J.J. Hoover 54.7 246 25.6% 12.2% .298 4.94 4.93 108 112
Tyler Pill 113.7 515 14.8% 7.4% .304 5.62 5.59 123 127
Albert Suarez 92.7 414 17.6% 7.5% .298 5.63 5.46 123 124
Neftali Feliz 48.3 215 21.9% 10.2% .287 5.03 4.94 110 112
Ivan Pineyro 96.0 432 16.7% 7.4% .305 5.62 5.55 123 126
J.R. Bradley 41.7 191 19.4% 11.5% .309 5.18 5.05 114 115
Kris Medlen 96.3 436 16.1% 7.6% .302 5.70 5.69 125 129
Brian Matusz 32.7 147 21.1% 8.8% .301 5.51 5.73 121 130
Keegan Long 65.0 296 13.5% 9.1% .298 5.26 5.31 115 121
Yoan Lopez 42.3 196 22.4% 12.8% .304 5.74 5.83 126 133
Alex Young 120.3 558 14.3% 10.4% .297 5.83 5.93 128 135
Frank Duncan 137.3 622 14.3% 6.6% .308 5.83 5.66 128 129
Antonio Bastardo 42.0 193 22.3% 13.5% .289 5.57 5.44 122 124
Daniel Gibson 40.3 190 15.8% 13.2% .299 5.58 5.46 122 124
Mason McCullough 47.3 232 26.3% 21.6% .304 5.51 5.59 121 127
Matt Stites 38.3 182 14.8% 13.7% .301 5.63 5.48 123 125
Anthony Vasquez 135.3 616 13.5% 7.8% .298 5.99 5.82 131 132
Miller Diaz 66.0 317 18.0% 14.5% .305 6.27 6.26 137 143
Josh Taylor 101.0 473 17.3% 10.8% .311 6.24 6.06 137 138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Zack Greinke 175.7 8.71 2.05 1.13 128 4.0 Yes That Bob Gibson
Robbie Ray 172.0 12.09 3.82 1.10 125 3.9 Sam McDowell
Zack Godley 155.0 9.58 3.72 1.10 111 2.7 Jason Jennings
Patrick Corbin 168.0 7.93 2.95 1.23 104 2.4 Steve Trout
Taijuan Walker 156.3 8.29 2.99 1.44 103 2.2 Al Nipper
Shelby Miller 144.0 7.56 3.56 1.19 99 1.8 Jamey Wright
Archie Bradley 75.7 10.59 3.45 0.83 134 1.7 Ken Ryan
Anthony Banda 150.3 8.44 3.71 1.26 97 1.7 Jimmy Anderson
Jared Miller 67.0 11.15 4.16 0.94 129 1.2 Billy McCool
Jake Buchanan 113.0 4.70 2.79 1.04 93 1.1 Bill Fischer
Andrew Chafin 59.3 9.40 3.79 0.76 122 1.0 Randy Choate
Randall Delgado 66.0 8.73 3.41 0.95 117 0.9 Bob Grim
Michael Blazek 77.0 7.60 4.09 1.17 100 0.9 Charlie Williams
David Hernandez 55.7 9.54 2.91 1.13 120 0.8 Dale Murray
Jorge de la Rosa 99.7 8.22 4.24 1.44 91 0.8 Oscar Judd
Rubby de la Rosa 105.0 9.17 3.69 1.80 89 0.8 Tom Shearn
Yuhei Nakaushiro 60.7 7.57 4.90 0.59 109 0.7 Tippy Martinez
Ryan Atkinson 113.7 9.03 5.46 1.50 85 0.5 Colin McLaughlin
Matt Koch 90.0 5.10 2.50 1.40 87 0.5 Dave Eiland
Aaron Laffey 80.7 5.47 3.35 1.23 89 0.5 Joe Gibbon
Fernando Salas 59.7 8.60 2.72 1.36 103 0.5 Mark Williamson
Joel Payamps 135.3 5.52 2.99 1.53 83 0.4 Jason Karnuth
Yoshihisa Hirano 49.3 8.39 3.28 1.28 103 0.4 Bryan Corey
T.J. McFarland 64.7 5.15 3.06 0.97 96 0.4 Jim Umbarger
Louis Coleman 55.3 9.60 5.04 1.14 99 0.4 Dennis Higgins
Jake Barrett 54.7 8.56 4.61 1.15 97 0.3 Marc Pisciotta
Jimmie Sherfy 52.7 11.45 3.76 1.88 97 0.3 Fernando Cabrera
Taylor Clarke 127.3 7.49 3.39 1.91 81 0.2 Scott Patterson
Brad Boxberger 42.0 12.64 5.14 1.93 96 0.2 Dwayne Henry
Joey Krehbiel 56.7 10.32 5.24 1.43 94 0.2 Bob Gibson
Silvino Bracho 57.0 11.37 3.47 1.89 94 0.2 Steve Chitren
Bud Jeter 45.7 8.28 4.73 1.18 94 0.2 Casey Daigle
Braden Shipley 137.7 6.08 3.46 1.70 80 0.2 Kevin Hodges
Gabe Speier 65.7 5.89 4.52 1.10 87 0.1 Scott Rice
J.J. Hoover 54.7 10.37 4.94 1.65 90 0.1 David Lee
Tyler Pill 113.7 6.02 3.01 1.82 79 0.1 Pat Ahearne
Albert Suarez 92.7 7.09 3.01 1.94 80 0.1 Scott Mitchell
Neftali Feliz 48.3 8.75 4.10 1.68 90 0.1 John Kiely
Ivan Pineyro 96.0 6.75 3.00 1.88 79 0.0 Vicente Bonilla
J.R. Bradley 41.7 7.99 4.75 1.30 86 0.0 Rick Greene
Kris Medlen 96.3 6.54 3.08 1.96 78 0.0 Robert Ellis
Brian Matusz 32.7 8.54 3.58 2.20 82 -0.1 Jerry Augustine
Keegan Long 65.0 5.54 3.74 1.38 85 -0.1 Bob Miller
Yoan Lopez 42.3 9.35 5.31 1.91 78 -0.1 David Chavarria
Alex Young 120.3 5.98 4.34 1.72 76 -0.2 Wade Blasingame
Frank Duncan 137.3 5.83 2.69 1.90 76 -0.2 Bill King
Antonio Bastardo 42.0 9.21 5.57 1.71 80 -0.2 Pedro Borbon
Daniel Gibson 40.3 6.69 5.58 1.34 80 -0.2 Philip Barzilla
Mason McCullough 47.3 11.60 9.51 1.14 81 -0.2 Josh Banks
Matt Stites 38.3 6.34 5.87 1.17 79 -0.2 Newt Kimball
Anthony Vasquez 135.3 5.52 3.19 1.86 76 -0.3 Andrew Lorraine
Miller Diaz 66.0 7.77 6.27 1.77 71 -0.6 Julian Leyva
Josh Taylor 101.0 7.31 4.54 1.96 71 -0.7 Manny Acosta

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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White Jar
Member
White Jar

Cain or Yelich would have made that outfield a lot more palatable.

Just a minor critique – Archie was never the closer last year (as the article seems to suggest) and I have seen no indication that they intend to use him in the traditional closer role this year either.

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

They never had a chance for either one. When your farm system is weak and you’re exploring ways to shed Patrick Corbin’s salary, neither one is going to happen.