2018 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Atlanta’s rebuild hasn’t taken the same form as the sort performed by the Astros or Cubs. Indeed, on paper, there’s little evidence of a rebuild at all. Consider, by way of illustration, the end-of-year payroll figures for the club since their last winning season (2013).

Atlanta’s financial obligations in 2017 exceeded the totals of every prior year in franchise history. With the exception of Freddie Freeman (566 PA, 4.2 zWAR), though, none of the club’s largest commitments were expected to make a substantive difference on the field. The club’s record last year suggests that those expectations were well founded.

While the club’s process might have been different, Atlanta’s current roster nevertheless resembles the sort typically possessed by a team on the verge of ascent, populated largely by cost-controlled players with tremendous potential. If Dan Szymborski’s computer is any indication, the 2018 season could represent the one in which much of that potential translates to success. Ender Inciarte (677, 3.4) and Dansby Swanson (589, 2.3) are projected to record more wins than Shelby Miller (for whom they were acquired) has produced in his best season. Ozzie Albies (697, 3.3) and Ronald Acuña (594, 2.8), meanwhile, are forecast for just over six wins as a pair — this, despite having accumulated fewer than 300 major-league plate appearances between them (all belonging to Albies).

As Craig Edwards noted towards the end of last week, Atlanta might actually be well positioned right now to address their weaknesses by way of free agency. For the current roster, that would probably mean finding replacements for Nick Markakis (623, 0.5) in the outfield and the combination of Johan Camargo (468, 0.6) and Rio Ruiz (579, 1.2) at third.

Pitchers
The pitching staff doesn’t appear as likely to benefit from a great coalescence of breakouts as the offense. Julio Teheran (182.0 IP, 2.0 zWAR) has recorded 30-plus starts in each of the past five years and enters the season as the nominal ace of the rotation. Mike Foltynewicz (143.2, 1.1) and Sean Newcomb (153.1, 1.9) are forecast more or less to reproduce their 2017 campaigns, while Brandon McCarthy (86.1, 1.1) receives average rate but modest innings projections.

None of this, however, is to note the starter for whom ZiPS has produced the most promising numbers — namely, Luiz Gohara (148.0, 2.7). The 21-year-old left-hander has recorded only five appearances (all starts) as a major leaguer — all after the advent of roster expansion last year — but is forecast for nearly three wins in 2018.

In the bullpen, Arodys Vizcaino (52.1 IP, 80 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) is the closer and features the second-best adjusted ERA projection in the organization. The best-best adjusted ERA forecast belongs to A.J. Minter (38.0, 77, 0.7), who recorded strikeout and walk rates of 43.3% and 3.3%, respectively, in 15.0 innings for the parent club last season.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above, the very best of Atlanta’s system is likely to play a role with the parent club this year. Among those players omitted from the depth-chart image below, however, Austin Riley (562 PA, 0.9 zWAR) receives the top projection among rookie-eligible position players. He’s not an immediate solution to Atlanta’s third-base deficiency but might have viability there in the long term.

Among pitchers, Mike Soroka (144.2 IP, 1.9 zWAR) earns the top marks among those omitted from the depth chart below. One of the three players selected in the first round of the 2015 draft, the right-handed Soroka is forecast to record basically league-average numbers as a starter despite having just completed only his age-19 season.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Atlanta, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Freddie Freeman L 28 1B 566 84 139 33 3 27 81 7 4
Ender Inciarte L 27 CF 677 89 181 27 6 9 48 22 8
Ozzie Albies B 21 2B 697 84 163 32 9 15 75 25 6
Ronald Acuña R 20 CF 594 73 146 24 6 21 73 33 18
Dansby Swanson R 24 SS 589 70 133 29 5 10 64 5 2
Rio Ruiz L 24 3B 579 65 119 26 3 17 68 2 3
Tyler Flowers R 32 C 355 31 76 13 0 10 43 0 1
Austin Riley R 21 3B 562 64 120 24 2 22 70 2 3
Kurt Suzuki R 34 C 356 32 83 17 0 8 47 0 0
Johan Camargo B 24 3B 468 46 107 23 5 7 43 1 1
Rob Brantly L 28 C 339 37 80 12 1 8 36 1 2
Jace Peterson L 28 2B 454 45 94 18 4 6 40 10 6
Lane Adams R 28 RF 422 46 86 16 2 12 43 24 5
Nick Markakis L 34 RF 623 65 147 30 1 8 64 1 2
Adonis Garcia R 33 3B 452 49 114 22 1 11 53 6 2
Travis Demeritte R 23 2B 525 59 105 21 6 18 55 6 6
Christian Colon R 29 2B 286 27 64 11 0 2 18 6 3
Kade Scivicque R 25 C 393 37 86 14 1 7 31 0 1
Preston Tucker L 27 RF 521 63 114 24 3 20 63 2 3
Dustin Peterson R 23 LF 465 48 101 25 2 9 49 2 2
Tyler Smith R 26 SS 443 43 94 16 1 6 32 5 4
Danny Santana B 27 LF 334 42 79 17 5 6 33 14 4
Sean Kazmar R 33 SS 369 36 88 17 2 7 37 3 2
Mel Rojas Jr. B 28 RF 523 54 108 24 4 14 54 6 6
James Loney L 34 1B 419 36 107 17 0 7 38 1 1
Charlie Culberson R 29 SS 399 33 83 15 2 5 30 5 3
Xavier Avery L 28 CF 432 47 81 16 3 11 39 17 7
Tony Sanchez R 30 C 299 29 59 13 0 6 27 1 2
Alex Jackson R 22 C 419 46 85 18 1 16 50 0 1
Luis Valenzuela L 24 2B 315 30 73 14 4 3 26 4 4
Brett Cumberland B 23 C 419 43 67 18 2 9 40 1 4
Kyle Kubitza L 27 RF 430 44 77 17 5 7 35 7 3
Joey Meneses R 26 1B 444 42 95 17 2 8 40 1 1
Carlos Franco L 26 1B 504 51 97 18 1 14 53 2 2
Matt Tuiasosopo R 32 1B 383 40 62 12 1 12 37 1 0
Ryan Howard L 38 1B 231 19 43 8 0 11 33 0 0
Anfernee Seymour B 23 CF 516 46 106 15 4 1 27 22 19

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Freddie Freeman 566 13.6% 21.7% .251 .338 .291 .396 .542 .390 141
Ender Inciarte 677 6.6% 12.9% .106 .325 .291 .339 .396 .318 93
Ozzie Albies 697 7.2% 20.5% .150 .309 .258 .316 .408 .311 89
Ronald Acuña 594 6.7% 28.3% .183 .349 .269 .321 .452 .329 101
Dansby Swanson 589 10.2% 22.1% .132 .318 .254 .331 .385 .308 87
Rio Ruiz 579 9.5% 28.0% .160 .297 .230 .304 .390 .299 81
Tyler Flowers 355 7.6% 26.2% .137 .310 .242 .324 .379 .308 87
Austin Riley 562 6.2% 32.0% .182 .306 .232 .285 .414 .298 80
Kurt Suzuki 356 5.6% 12.9% .127 .276 .257 .314 .384 .301 82
Johan Camargo 468 4.9% 19.9% .125 .299 .248 .288 .374 .282 70
Rob Brantly 339 4.1% 17.4% .120 .285 .252 .292 .372 .287 73
Jace Peterson 454 11.7% 20.7% .112 .297 .239 .330 .350 .299 81
Lane Adams 422 6.9% 31.8% .145 .306 .223 .283 .369 .282 70
Nick Markakis 623 9.8% 15.6% .101 .307 .265 .340 .366 .307 86
Adonis Garcia 452 3.5% 15.3% .133 .293 .266 .299 .399 .298 81
Travis Demeritte 525 8.2% 34.1% .182 .307 .220 .284 .402 .294 78
Christian Colon 286 7.0% 14.7% .066 .290 .249 .307 .315 .274 65
Kade Scivicque 393 4.8% 22.9% .101 .290 .234 .278 .335 .266 60
Preston Tucker 521 8.3% 23.0% .191 .281 .242 .307 .433 .314 91
Dustin Peterson 465 6.7% 23.7% .131 .296 .235 .292 .366 .286 73
Tyler Smith 443 7.0% 21.2% .089 .289 .233 .293 .323 .271 63
Danny Santana 334 4.2% 23.7% .143 .317 .252 .287 .395 .290 75
Sean Kazmar 369 3.3% 13.8% .120 .274 .251 .277 .370 .277 67
Mel Rojas Jr. 523 6.7% 28.3% .154 .292 .225 .280 .378 .282 70
James Loney 419 6.2% 11.2% .098 .298 .276 .325 .375 .302 83
Charlie Culberson 399 5.0% 21.3% .091 .274 .222 .264 .313 .251 50
Xavier Avery 432 9.7% 38.4% .143 .335 .211 .291 .354 .281 70
Tony Sanchez 299 8.4% 25.8% .117 .286 .222 .296 .338 .279 68
Alex Jackson 419 5.3% 32.9% .176 .295 .220 .277 .395 .286 72
Luis Valenzuela 315 3.5% 19.7% .104 .298 .245 .275 .349 .267 60
Brett Cumberland 419 8.1% 36.3% .138 .293 .188 .303 .326 .282 70
Kyle Kubitza 430 10.5% 32.8% .127 .300 .204 .291 .331 .273 64
Joey Meneses 444 6.5% 24.8% .110 .296 .232 .284 .341 .272 64
Carlos Franco 504 8.5% 33.9% .135 .303 .212 .282 .347 .274 65
Matt Tuiasosopo 383 11.0% 37.9% .150 .279 .186 .283 .335 .274 64
Ryan Howard 231 5.2% 34.2% .191 .250 .200 .242 .391 .262 57
Anfernee Seymour 516 5.0% 29.7% .055 .324 .224 .266 .278 .241 43

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Freddie Freeman 566 8.1 151 1 4.2 Todd Helton
Ender Inciarte 677 5.2 99 8 3.4 Del Unser
Ozzie Albies 697 4.9 95 10 3.3 Derek Jeter
Ronald Acuña 594 5.3 107 2 2.8 Adam Jones
Dansby Swanson 589 4.6 94 2 2.3 Jay Bell
Rio Ruiz 579 4.1 87 1 1.2 Dave Baker
Tyler Flowers 355 4.3 90 -3 1.1 Damian Miller
Austin Riley 562 4.1 86 -1 0.9 Jim Presley
Kurt Suzuki 356 4.4 88 -4 0.9 Mike Lieberthal
Johan Camargo 468 3.8 78 4 0.6 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Rob Brantly 339 3.8 79 -2 0.6 Humberto Quintero
Jace Peterson 454 4.0 85 -3 0.6 Sam Khalifa
Lane Adams 422 4.0 75 6 0.6 Sean Barker
Nick Markakis 623 4.5 92 -2 0.5 Johnny Wyrostek
Adonis Garcia 452 4.4 87 -5 0.4 Mike Cervenak
Travis Demeritte 525 3.8 83 -3 0.4 Steve Davis
Christian Colon 286 3.5 70 4 0.4 Sergio Garcia
Kade Scivicque 393 3.2 66 0 0.3 Mike Knapp
Preston Tucker 521 4.6 98 -6 0.3 Eric Valent
Dustin Peterson 465 3.7 77 5 0.2 Ken Weislak
Tyler Smith 443 3.3 67 0 0.2 Bruce Crabbe
Danny Santana 334 4.3 83 0 0.1 Milt Cuyler
Sean Kazmar 369 3.7 74 -3 0.1 Billy Martin
Mel Rojas Jr. 523 3.6 76 6 0.0 Justin Bowles
James Loney 419 4.5 89 0 0.0 Jose Vidro
Charlie Culberson 399 2.8 56 4 -0.1 Joe Millette
Xavier Avery 432 3.6 74 -5 -0.1 Jon VanEvery
Tony Sanchez 299 3.4 72 -7 -0.2 Danny Ardoin
Alex Jackson 419 3.7 80 -12 -0.3 Craig Faulkner
Luis Valenzuela 315 3.3 68 -1 -0.3 Ricky Bell
Brett Cumberland 419 3.1 71 -11 -0.4 Mickey Tettleton
Kyle Kubitza 430 3.3 69 0 -0.7 Wynter Phoenix
Joey Meneses 444 3.4 69 1 -1.0 Mark Ori
Carlos Franco 504 3.3 70 2 -1.0 Tate Seefried
Matt Tuiasosopo 383 3.2 67 -3 -1.1 Kurt Airoso
Ryan Howard 231 3.2 68 -4 -1.1 Tito Landrum
Anfernee Seymour 516 2.2 48 -7 -2.4 R.J. Reynolds

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Luiz Gohara L 21 31 30 148.0 154 62 13 135 65 61
Julio Teheran R 27 31 31 182.0 155 61 28 178 94 88
Sean Newcomb L 25 31 31 153.3 172 98 15 138 78 73
Mike Soroka R 20 26 26 144.7 107 44 16 151 73 68
R.A. Dickey R 43 25 25 149.7 109 56 22 150 82 77
Kolby Allard L 20 27 27 139.0 115 54 18 148 76 71
Brandon McCarthy R 34 17 16 86.3 63 25 10 93 44 41
Mike Foltynewicz R 26 27 26 143.7 137 53 23 149 81 76
Arodys Vizcaino R 27 58 0 52.3 61 24 5 44 21 20
Lucas Sims R 24 21 20 109.7 124 50 19 104 61 57
Scott Kazmir L 34 15 15 84.0 69 31 12 89 47 44
Luke Jackson R 26 55 3 72.0 66 38 5 68 34 32
Grant Dayton L 30 46 0 50.0 64 18 7 42 21 20
A.J. Minter L 24 41 0 38.0 52 15 4 30 15 14
Wes Parsons R 25 29 11 100.0 80 40 13 104 57 53
Sam Freeman L 31 57 1 59.3 59 34 5 55 29 27
Jason Hursh R 26 51 0 66.7 50 29 5 69 33 31
Mauricio Cabrera R 24 52 0 52.3 57 36 4 45 26 24
Josh Collmenter R 32 25 11 79.3 61 26 14 85 46 43
Matt Wisler R 25 35 21 143.0 102 42 24 158 87 81
Dan Winkler R 28 30 0 28.0 31 10 4 26 13 12
Chase Whitley R 29 37 6 65.0 54 19 11 69 36 34
Rex Brothers L 30 54 0 45.3 62 35 4 35 22 21
Ian Krol L 27 61 0 56.0 57 23 7 55 29 27
Rhiner Cruz R 31 39 0 45.7 49 30 4 41 24 22
Devan Watts R 23 40 0 55.3 53 25 7 54 29 27
Caleb Dirks R 25 37 0 47.3 51 21 7 45 25 23
Phil Pfeifer L 25 41 1 53.7 62 49 3 45 29 27
Max Fried L 24 28 24 109.3 91 67 14 114 67 63
Josh Ravin R 30 40 0 46.3 63 25 8 39 25 23
Akeel Morris R 25 47 0 59.7 72 40 7 52 32 30
Jose Al. Ramirez R 28 64 0 60.3 62 35 8 56 33 31
Anyelo Gomez R 25 35 5 71.0 69 42 11 69 42 39
David Peterson R 28 47 1 62.0 43 20 8 68 34 32
Tyler Pike L 24 26 26 122.7 116 104 13 117 78 73
Corbin Clouse L 23 40 0 52.0 62 43 5 44 29 27
Aaron Blair R 26 26 26 128.0 107 63 19 138 81 76
Adam McCreery L 25 36 0 54.3 63 48 5 47 31 29
Jacob Webb R 24 39 0 56.7 64 49 5 49 32 30
Josh Graham R 24 42 0 56.3 54 32 7 55 32 30
Jacob Lindgren L 25 12 0 14.7 18 13 2 13 9 8
Shane Carle R 26 32 14 100.3 72 29 18 116 63 59
Dan Reynolds R 27 40 0 53.0 43 41 4 52 31 29
Jason Motte R 36 46 0 38.0 32 15 6 39 22 21
Touki Toussaint R 22 26 25 130.7 126 89 20 131 85 79
Kris Medlen R 32 18 17 97.0 72 33 19 112 63 59
Eric O’Flaherty L 33 31 0 25.7 20 11 4 28 16 15
Patrick Weigel R 23 19 19 94.7 83 49 17 100 62 58
Jesse Biddle L 26 35 0 47.3 43 26 7 49 29 27
Manny Barreda R 29 26 18 103.7 94 59 19 109 70 65
Michael Mader L 24 32 10 82.0 63 52 13 90 56 52
Bradley Roney R 25 31 0 42.0 58 47 7 35 30 28
Ricardo Sanchez L 21 22 21 94.7 80 63 18 104 68 64
Matt Withrow R 24 20 18 80.0 72 53 20 90 65 61

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Luiz Gohara 148.0 641 24.0% 9.7% .302 3.71 3.62 86 84
Julio Teheran 182.0 785 19.7% 7.8% .281 4.35 4.53 101 105
Sean Newcomb 153.3 696 24.7% 14.1% .306 4.28 4.22 99 98
Mike Soroka 144.7 629 17.0% 7.0% .297 4.23 4.19 98 98
R.A. Dickey 149.7 655 16.6% 8.5% .278 4.63 4.87 107 114
Kolby Allard 139.0 619 18.6% 8.7% .307 4.60 4.44 107 103
Brandon McCarthy 86.3 377 16.7% 6.6% .302 4.27 4.18 99 97
Mike Foltynewicz 143.7 633 21.6% 8.4% .306 4.76 4.56 110 106
Arodys Vizcaino 52.3 225 27.1% 10.7% .291 3.44 3.39 80 79
Lucas Sims 109.7 483 25.7% 10.4% .298 4.68 4.63 109 108
Scott Kazmir 84.0 372 18.5% 8.3% .300 4.71 4.55 109 106
Luke Jackson 72.0 322 20.5% 11.8% .303 4.00 3.94 93 92
Grant Dayton 50.0 210 30.5% 8.6% .294 3.60 3.50 84 81
A.J. Minter 38.0 159 32.7% 9.4% .299 3.32 3.05 77 71
Wes Parsons 100.0 444 18.0% 9.0% .297 4.77 4.57 111 106
Sam Freeman 59.3 267 22.1% 12.7% .301 4.10 4.08 95 95
Jason Hursh 66.7 298 16.8% 9.7% .305 4.18 4.12 97 96
Mauricio Cabrera 52.3 238 23.9% 15.1% .295 4.13 4.04 96 94
Josh Collmenter 79.3 349 17.5% 7.4% .289 4.88 4.90 113 114
Matt Wisler 143.0 629 16.2% 6.7% .295 5.10 4.88 118 114
Dan Winkler 28.0 120 25.8% 8.3% .297 3.86 3.98 89 93
Chase Whitley 65.0 283 19.1% 6.7% .296 4.71 4.67 109 109
Rex Brothers 45.3 206 30.1% 17.0% .298 4.17 3.82 97 89
Ian Krol 56.0 246 23.2% 9.3% .308 4.34 4.03 101 94
Rhiner Cruz 45.7 208 23.6% 14.4% .303 4.34 4.25 101 99
Devan Watts 55.3 245 21.6% 10.2% .299 4.39 4.35 102 101
Caleb Dirks 47.3 208 24.5% 10.1% .302 4.37 4.32 101 101
Phil Pfeifer 53.7 255 24.3% 19.2% .304 4.53 4.42 105 103
Max Fried 109.3 509 17.9% 13.2% .304 5.19 5.16 120 120
Josh Ravin 46.3 203 31.0% 12.3% .295 4.47 4.30 104 100
Akeel Morris 59.7 271 26.6% 14.8% .302 4.53 4.43 105 103
Jose Al. Ramirez 60.3 272 22.8% 12.9% .296 4.62 4.72 107 110
Anyelo Gomez 71.0 324 21.3% 13.0% .294 4.94 5.21 115 121
David Peterson 62.0 274 15.7% 7.3% .300 4.65 4.46 108 104
Tyler Pike 122.7 589 19.7% 17.7% .299 5.36 5.36 124 125
Corbin Clouse 52.0 243 25.5% 17.7% .300 4.67 4.50 108 105
Aaron Blair 128.0 585 18.3% 10.8% .306 5.34 5.03 124 117
Adam McCreery 54.3 258 24.4% 18.6% .304 4.80 4.85 111 113
Jacob Webb 56.7 268 23.9% 18.3% .299 4.76 4.59 111 107
Josh Graham 56.3 256 21.1% 12.5% .302 4.79 4.67 111 109
Jacob Lindgren 14.7 70 25.7% 18.6% .297 4.91 4.93 114 115
Shane Carle 100.3 446 16.1% 6.5% .304 5.29 5.07 123 118
Dan Reynolds 53.0 252 17.1% 16.3% .298 4.92 4.89 114 114
Jason Motte 38.0 168 19.0% 8.9% .292 4.97 4.71 115 110
Touki Toussaint 130.7 612 20.6% 14.5% .301 5.44 5.38 126 125
Kris Medlen 97.0 436 16.5% 7.6% .302 5.47 5.36 127 125
Eric O’Flaherty 25.7 116 17.2% 9.5% .300 5.26 4.91 122 114
Patrick Weigel 94.7 433 19.2% 11.3% .299 5.51 5.48 128 128
Jesse Biddle 47.3 217 19.8% 12.0% .302 5.13 5.04 119 117
Manny Barreda 103.7 479 19.6% 12.3% .299 5.64 5.58 131 130
Michael Mader 82.0 388 16.2% 13.4% .303 5.71 5.77 132 134
Bradley Roney 42.0 208 27.9% 22.6% .298 6.00 5.99 139 140
Ricardo Sanchez 94.7 451 17.7% 14.0% .303 6.08 6.09 141 142
Matt Withrow 80.0 383 18.8% 13.8% .300 6.86 6.78 159 158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Luiz Gohara 148.0 9.36 3.77 0.79 114 2.7 Al Downing
Julio Teheran 182.0 7.66 3.02 1.38 96 2.0 Ricky Bones
Sean Newcomb 153.3 10.10 5.75 0.88 99 1.9 Tim Birtsas
Mike Soroka 144.7 6.66 2.74 1.00 100 1.9 Bob Anderson
R.A. Dickey 149.7 6.55 3.37 1.32 91 1.3 Orel Hershiser
Kolby Allard 139.0 7.45 3.50 1.17 92 1.3 Jerry Reuss
Brandon McCarthy 86.3 6.57 2.61 1.04 97 1.1 Danny MacFayden
Mike Foltynewicz 143.7 8.58 3.32 1.44 89 1.1 Rich Loiselle
Arodys Vizcaino 52.3 10.49 4.13 0.86 121 1.0 Brian Wilson
Lucas Sims 109.7 10.18 4.10 1.56 89 0.8 Pat Mahomes
Scott Kazmir 84.0 7.39 3.32 1.29 90 0.8 Buzz Oliver
Luke Jackson 72.0 8.25 4.75 0.63 106 0.7 Joe Hudson
Grant Dayton 50.0 11.52 3.24 1.26 116 0.7 Jason Christiansen
A.J. Minter 38.0 12.32 3.55 0.95 127 0.7 Billy McCool
Wes Parsons 100.0 7.20 3.60 1.17 87 0.5 Tim Crabtree
Sam Freeman 59.3 8.95 5.16 0.76 102 0.5 Tippy Martinez
Jason Hursh 66.7 6.75 3.92 0.68 100 0.5 Sam Nahem
Mauricio Cabrera 52.3 9.80 6.19 0.69 101 0.4 Brad Voyles
Josh Collmenter 79.3 6.92 2.95 1.59 85 0.3 Jerry Reed
Matt Wisler 143.0 6.42 2.64 1.51 82 0.3 Chuck Porter
Dan Winkler 28.0 9.96 3.21 1.29 108 0.3 Derek Wallace
Chase Whitley 65.0 7.48 2.63 1.52 90 0.3 Nate Snell
Rex Brothers 45.3 12.31 6.95 0.79 100 0.3 Hector Mercado
Ian Krol 56.0 9.16 3.70 1.13 97 0.3 Joe Klink
Rhiner Cruz 45.7 9.66 5.91 0.79 97 0.3 Mike Cook
Devan Watts 55.3 8.62 4.07 1.14 95 0.3 Jim Winn
Caleb Dirks 47.3 9.70 3.99 1.33 95 0.2 Bill Snyder
Phil Pfeifer 53.7 10.40 8.22 0.50 92 0.2 Clay Bryant
Max Fried 109.3 7.49 5.52 1.15 80 0.2 Greg Kubes
Josh Ravin 46.3 12.24 4.86 1.55 93 0.2 Dwayne Henry
Akeel Morris 59.7 10.86 6.03 1.06 92 0.2 Brian Bowles
Jose Al. Ramirez 60.3 9.25 5.22 1.19 91 0.2 Mark Acre
Anyelo Gomez 71.0 8.75 5.32 1.39 85 0.2 Mel Rojas
David Peterson 62.0 6.24 2.90 1.16 90 0.2 Scott Rose
Tyler Pike 122.7 8.51 7.63 0.95 79 0.1 Jordan Pals
Corbin Clouse 52.0 10.73 7.44 0.87 89 0.1 Scott Wiggins
Aaron Blair 128.0 7.52 4.43 1.34 78 0.1 Elvin Nina
Adam McCreery 54.3 10.44 7.95 0.83 88 0.0 Scott Wiggins
Jacob Webb 56.7 10.16 7.78 0.79 87 0.0 Clay Bryant
Josh Graham 56.3 8.63 5.11 1.12 87 0.0 Joe Hudson
Jacob Lindgren 14.7 11.05 7.98 1.23 86 0.0 Luke Walker
Shane Carle 100.3 6.46 2.60 1.61 79 0.0 David Lundberg
Dan Reynolds 53.0 7.30 6.96 0.68 86 0.0 Newt Kimball
Jason Motte 38.0 7.58 3.55 1.42 84 -0.1 Steve Bedrosian
Touki Toussaint 130.7 8.68 6.13 1.38 77 -0.1 Derrick Lewis
Kris Medlen 97.0 6.68 3.06 1.76 76 -0.1 Robert Ellis
Eric O’Flaherty 25.7 7.01 3.86 1.40 80 -0.1 Mike Mohler
Patrick Weigel 94.7 7.89 4.66 1.62 76 -0.1 Jose Nunez
Jesse Biddle 47.3 8.18 4.94 1.33 81 -0.2 Philip Barzilla
Manny Barreda 103.7 8.16 5.12 1.65 75 -0.3 Michael Smith
Michael Mader 82.0 6.91 5.71 1.43 73 -0.4 Scott Rice
Bradley Roney 42.0 12.43 10.07 1.50 69 -0.6 Bill Bene
Ricardo Sanchez 94.7 7.61 5.99 1.71 69 -0.7 Sebern Wright
Matt Withrow 80.0 8.10 5.96 2.25 62 -1.2 David Holdridge

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves by Carson Cistulli!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
southie
Member
southie

Albies was the gift basket for Anthopolous taking the job