2018 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Baltimore Orioles. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Baltimore’s roster could look somewhat different on Opening Day than it does presently. If the club ends up trading Manny Machado (688 PA, 4.9 zWAR) — which reports suggest is at least a possibility — then other players entering their final year with the club might also be dealt. Among hitters, that would include Adam Jones (616, 1.8).

Such moves, were they to occur, would leave few wins behind in Charm City. With the exception of Jones, Machado, and Jonathan Schoop (629, 3.0), no position player in the organization is forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to record two or more wins. It’s possible that a return for Machado would yield major-league talent. It’s unlikely, however, that the club would opt for present value over future.

The team does feature some pieces with possible upside. The projections for Tim Beckham (509, 1.4), Austin Hays (614, 1.5), and Trey Mancini (608, 1.5) probably all feature larger error bars than is typical. That triumvirate will remain under team control through 2020, at least. Unfortunately, the club will continue to owe Chris Davis (541, 1.3) roughly $20 million per annum for a couple years after that.

Pitchers
Orioles pitchers recorded the fifth-worst collective WAR among the league’s staffs this past season, and a lack of depth in the rotation was largely to blame for that. Dylan Bundy (159.1 IP, 2.5 zWAR) and Kevin Gausman (178.0, 2.6) accounted for 5.2 wins in 2017. The rotation as a whole? Just 5.5 wins. Unless the team acquires some arms this offseason, the 2018 campaign is almost certain to resemble the 2017 one in this regard.

As for the bullpen, it’s a real strength as presently constructed. Brad Brach (66.2, 73 ERA-, 1.5 zWAR) and Zach Britton (53.0 IP, 65 ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) are both well suited to high-leverage roles. They’re also both entering the final year of their contracts, though, meaning they might not remain employed by the Orioles for much longer. Even in their absence, the relief corps would probably remain above average, with Mychal Givens (73.2, 75, 1.6) and Darren O’Day (52.0, 70, 1.2) both representing talented late-inning options.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having recorded just 63 major-league plate appearances, Austin Hays is currently a legitimate — and, it would appear, deserving — candidate for a starting role. Outfielder Cedric Mullins (460 PA, 0.6 zWAR) and catcher Austin Wynns (391, 0.7), both rookie eligible, receive the next best projections among position players excluded from the depth-chart image below. Reliever Ryan Meisinger (67.2, 87 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) appears to earn that distinction among pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Orioles, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Manny Machado R 25 3B 688 91 174 34 1 34 100 9 4
Jonathan Schoop R 26 2B 629 79 154 30 0 31 99 2 0
Adam Jones R 32 CF 616 76 155 24 2 27 80 3 1
Austin Hays R 22 CF 614 72 163 29 4 24 88 4 8
Trey Mancini R 26 LF 608 69 151 26 4 27 81 2 1
Tim Beckham R 28 SS 509 58 120 18 5 19 62 5 5
Chris Davis L 32 1B 541 73 105 18 0 31 81 1 1
Seth Smith L 35 RF 377 48 85 19 2 13 44 1 0
Chance Sisco L 23 C 429 48 96 21 0 12 48 3 2
Mark Trumbo R 32 DH 565 72 129 22 1 31 82 1 0
Caleb Joseph R 32 C 282 27 59 11 1 8 28 0 0
Austin Wynns R 27 C 391 38 85 16 1 7 33 1 1
Francisco Pena R 28 C 278 31 64 12 0 8 33 1 1
Cedric Mullins B 23 CF 460 54 104 22 3 15 52 12 7
Mike Yastrzemski L 27 RF 475 53 98 20 4 14 54 6 3
Johnny Giavotella R 30 2B 436 48 107 21 2 6 43 5 3
Ryan Flaherty L 31 2B 216 24 41 7 1 5 21 1 0
Chris Dickerson L 36 LF 274 30 52 9 2 7 24 6 2
Ademar Rifaela L 23 RF 503 57 111 19 3 19 64 5 5
J.J. Hardy R 35 SS 370 35 80 16 0 6 34 0 1
Audry Perez R 29 C 264 25 63 11 0 5 24 0 0
Ruben Tejada R 28 SS 340 36 75 15 0 5 29 0 2
Pedro Alvarez L 31 1B 532 61 118 22 1 28 83 2 0
Anthony Santander B 23 RF 463 57 106 24 0 18 60 4 4
Paul Janish R 35 SS 299 24 59 8 1 1 17 1 1
Sharlon Schoop R 31 2B 249 23 49 8 1 6 22 0 1
Ryan Mountcastle R 21 SS 553 59 131 33 2 16 62 7 3
Robert Andino R 34 2B 314 30 64 10 1 8 30 2 1
Logan Schafer L 31 CF 380 36 77 14 3 4 26 4 2
Angelo Mora B 25 2B 429 38 93 16 4 6 39 4 4
D.J. Stewart L 24 LF 528 59 103 20 2 14 54 15 7
David Washington L 27 1B 432 51 84 16 1 23 59 4 3
Alex Castellanos R 31 3B 241 26 45 11 1 8 27 2 1
Joey Rickard R 27 RF 371 39 80 16 1 5 27 9 2
Chris Johnson R 33 3B 313 27 70 12 0 8 34 1 0
Luis Sardinas B 25 2B 449 44 107 14 3 4 36 9 5
Craig Gentry R 34 RF 318 34 62 8 1 3 20 12 6
Drew Dosch L 26 3B 510 49 107 20 3 8 43 3 2
Jaycob Brugman L 26 CF 481 47 100 17 3 10 45 5 4
Steve Wilkerson B 26 2B 446 41 88 13 1 5 29 6 6
Adrian Marin R 24 2B 484 43 102 16 3 4 32 9 5
Glynn Davis R 26 CF 384 34 78 14 2 4 27 9 7
Aderlin Rodriguez R 26 1B 518 54 115 19 2 17 62 1 1
Jomar Reyes R 21 3B 417 42 95 14 2 9 39 2 0
Randolph Gassaway R 23 LF 482 46 111 18 1 8 44 2 3
Jay Gonzalez L 26 RF 430 38 77 9 2 0 19 22 10
Garabez Rosa R 28 RF 521 49 121 17 1 9 49 2 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Manny Machado 688 7.6% 16.9% .220 .290 .278 .333 .498 .348 116
Jonathan Schoop 629 4.6% 21.6% .211 .291 .264 .307 .474 .330 104
Adam Jones 616 4.2% 17.5% .189 .286 .269 .306 .458 .322 98
Austin Hays 614 3.4% 19.5% .188 .315 .281 .310 .468 .329 103
Trey Mancini 608 6.3% 24.7% .205 .320 .269 .319 .473 .335 107
Tim Beckham 509 6.1% 27.3% .180 .320 .255 .303 .435 .314 93
Chris Davis 541 11.5% 36.2% .236 .300 .223 .318 .459 .328 102
Seth Smith 377 10.6% 20.4% .188 .298 .258 .345 .447 .337 109
Chance Sisco 429 7.0% 27.3% .147 .321 .247 .312 .394 .306 88
Mark Trumbo 565 7.1% 25.1% .224 .279 .247 .301 .470 .325 101
Caleb Joseph 282 5.0% 25.2% .141 .276 .224 .268 .365 .272 65
Austin Wynns 391 6.6% 20.7% .109 .287 .238 .293 .347 .280 69
Francisco Pena 278 4.0% 18.7% .137 .273 .243 .274 .380 .280 70
Cedric Mullins 460 5.4% 21.7% .171 .281 .243 .282 .414 .294 79
Mike Yastrzemski 475 7.2% 27.8% .162 .289 .226 .286 .388 .289 76
Johnny Giavotella 436 6.0% 11.5% .108 .289 .268 .312 .375 .297 81
Ryan Flaherty 216 9.7% 22.7% .126 .263 .216 .302 .342 .283 72
Chris Dickerson 274 9.5% 31.0% .139 .294 .213 .296 .352 .283 72
Ademar Rifaela 503 5.4% 29.4% .176 .305 .238 .287 .413 .297 82
J.J. Hardy 370 5.4% 18.1% .099 .269 .232 .274 .330 .263 58
Audry Perez 264 3.4% 17.4% .103 .287 .250 .278 .353 .271 63
Ruben Tejada 340 8.5% 15.0% .100 .282 .249 .322 .349 .294 80
Pedro Alvarez 532 7.5% 27.1% .222 .283 .242 .301 .464 .321 98
Anthony Santander 463 6.0% 24.4% .185 .297 .251 .305 .436 .314 93
Paul Janish 299 6.4% 15.7% .048 .258 .218 .277 .266 .245 46
Sharlon Schoop 249 5.6% 24.9% .121 .262 .212 .262 .333 .259 55
Ryan Mountcastle 553 2.9% 23.0% .160 .294 .247 .271 .408 .286 74
Robert Andino 314 4.8% 27.7% .122 .277 .216 .256 .338 .256 54
Logan Schafer 380 6.8% 18.4% .094 .270 .225 .282 .319 .263 58
Angelo Mora 429 5.1% 24.7% .104 .298 .231 .272 .335 .262 58
D.J. Stewart 528 9.7% 25.2% .141 .276 .221 .305 .362 .292 78
David Washington 432 7.6% 42.1% .220 .316 .213 .273 .433 .299 82
Alex Castellanos 241 5.8% 34.0% .167 .278 .203 .261 .369 .270 63
Joey Rickard 371 6.7% 21.3% .098 .294 .238 .296 .336 .278 68
Chris Johnson 313 4.5% 31.3% .121 .323 .236 .272 .357 .270 63
Luis Sardinas 449 4.0% 16.3% .076 .297 .253 .286 .329 .267 61
Craig Gentry 318 6.9% 22.3% .066 .274 .216 .279 .282 .252 50
Drew Dosch 510 5.9% 25.9% .106 .295 .226 .275 .332 .263 58
Jaycob Brugman 481 8.1% 23.5% .121 .284 .229 .293 .350 .279 69
Steve Wilkerson 446 6.3% 28.7% .074 .300 .216 .273 .289 .250 49
Adrian Marin 484 4.1% 24.2% .075 .292 .224 .259 .298 .244 45
Glynn Davis 384 4.9% 29.2% .084 .303 .218 .260 .303 .246 46
Aderlin Rodriguez 518 4.8% 26.8% .152 .294 .237 .278 .389 .283 72
Jomar Reyes 417 3.4% 23.0% .114 .293 .240 .269 .354 .267 61
Randolph Gassaway 482 4.1% 21.2% .096 .294 .243 .276 .339 .266 60
Jay Gonzalez 430 9.8% 31.2% .034 .308 .201 .279 .235 .237 41
Garabez Rosa 521 2.1% 25.9% .091 .309 .241 .260 .332 .254 52

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Manny Machado 688 6.2 122 10 4.9 Edwin Encarnacion
Jonathan Schoop 629 5.4 108 3 3.0 Bret Boone
Adam Jones 616 5.2 103 -4 1.8 Rondell White
Austin Hays 614 5.2 107 -7 1.5 Jose Guillen
Trey Mancini 608 5.6 111 -4 1.5 George Scott
Tim Beckham 509 4.7 97 -3 1.4 Kurt Abbott
Chris Davis 541 5.0 107 3 1.3 Graham Koonce
Seth Smith 377 5.6 113 -1 1.2 Al Zarilla
Chance Sisco 429 4.4 90 -5 1.0 Rich Gedman
Mark Trumbo 565 5.1 105 0 1.0 Walt Dropo
Caleb Joseph 282 3.4 70 6 0.8 Chad Moeller
Austin Wynns 391 3.6 73 2 0.7 Trey Lunsford
Francisco Pena 278 3.7 75 3 0.6 Yamid Haad
Cedric Mullins 460 4.1 86 0 0.6 George Wright
Mike Yastrzemski 475 3.9 81 6 0.3 Justin Bowles
Johnny Giavotella 436 4.3 86 -3 0.3 Garth Iorg
Ryan Flaherty 216 3.6 75 2 0.3 Shanie Dugas
Chris Dickerson 274 3.7 75 5 0.2 Curtis Pride
Ademar Rifaela 503 4.1 87 2 0.2 Rich Murray
J.J. Hardy 370 3.1 63 4 0.1 Kevin Baez
Audry Perez 264 3.5 70 -1 0.1 Omir Santos
Ruben Tejada 340 3.9 83 -4 0.1 Larry Brown
Pedro Alvarez 532 5.0 103 -7 0.1 J.R. Phillips
Anthony Santander 463 4.7 98 -5 0.1 Jermaine Dye
Paul Janish 299 2.5 49 5 -0.2 Dal Maxvill
Sharlon Schoop 249 2.9 60 3 -0.2 Chris Petersen
Ryan Mountcastle 553 4.0 81 -10 -0.3 Charlie Hayes
Robert Andino 314 3.0 59 3 -0.3 Pete Mackanin
Logan Schafer 380 3.1 63 1 -0.4 Joe Simpson
Angelo Mora 429 3.1 64 2 -0.4 Juan Melo
D.J. Stewart 528 3.8 80 -2 -0.4 Adam Leggett
David Washington 432 4.0 87 -3 -0.5 Wes Clements
Alex Castellanos 241 3.3 69 -4 -0.6 Caonabo Cosme
Joey Rickard 371 3.7 72 -1 -0.6 Tommy Watkins
Chris Johnson 313 3.5 69 -4 -0.6 Wes Helms
Luis Sardinas 449 3.4 67 -2 -0.7 Gus Polidor
Craig Gentry 318 2.7 54 5 -0.7 Thomas Johnson
Drew Dosch 510 3.2 64 -1 -0.7 Javier Castillo
Jaycob Brugman 481 3.5 74 -8 -0.8 Jeff Barry
Steve Wilkerson 446 2.6 53 3 -0.9 John Hotchkiss
Adrian Marin 484 2.7 51 5 -0.9 Mike Huyler
Glynn Davis 384 2.6 52 2 -1.0 Robert Whitfield
Aderlin Rodriguez 518 3.8 79 -2 -1.1 Danny Matienzo
Jomar Reyes 417 3.4 67 -8 -1.1 Fred Manrique
Randolph Gassaway 482 3.2 66 -1 -1.4 Kevin Hankerd
Jay Gonzalez 430 2.3 42 5 -1.6 Darrell Dent
Garabez Rosa 521 2.9 59 1 -1.8 Keith Reed

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Kevin Gausman R 27 32 32 178.0 170 56 26 181 90 84
Dylan Bundy R 25 26 26 159.3 149 48 23 150 78 73
Mychal Givens R 28 64 0 73.7 88 31 7 59 29 27
Brad Brach R 32 62 0 66.7 76 26 6 54 26 24
Zach Britton L 30 55 0 53.0 51 20 2 44 18 17
Darren O’Day R 35 56 0 52.0 67 18 6 40 19 18
Jeremy Hellickson R 31 27 27 141.7 94 38 24 155 83 78
Ryan Meisinger R 24 42 0 67.7 60 27 6 64 31 29
Tanner Scott L 23 32 20 66.0 76 63 3 53 35 33
Wade Miley L 31 28 28 150.7 129 64 22 162 90 84
Ubaldo Jimenez R 34 27 23 131.0 119 58 19 135 78 73
Donnie Hart L 27 63 0 59.3 46 18 6 60 28 26
Mike Wright R 28 29 19 115.7 87 36 19 125 68 64
Richard Bleier L 31 58 0 66.7 32 12 8 75 33 31
Stefan Crichton R 26 41 2 68.0 50 23 8 73 36 34
Jason Gurka L 30 41 1 52.3 48 16 7 53 27 25
Miguel Castro R 23 48 0 85.3 52 32 9 90 46 43
Perci Garner R 29 32 0 48.3 44 32 3 45 25 23
Matt Wotherspoon R 26 35 4 73.0 71 34 11 72 42 39
Jeff Ferrell R 27 56 0 58.7 54 19 9 61 31 29
Chris Tillman R 30 27 25 130.7 96 54 22 140 82 77
Jason Garcia R 25 33 7 85.7 58 50 9 91 51 48
Gabriel Ynoa R 25 30 25 145.3 85 36 26 173 91 85
Josh Edgin L 31 50 0 39.0 32 21 4 39 20 19
Hunter Harvey R 23 8 8 16.7 19 9 2 14 9 8
Chris Lee L 25 25 20 112.0 64 54 14 128 71 66
Tyler Wilson R 28 27 20 121.0 73 35 21 142 77 72
Jhan Marinez R 29 45 0 59.0 47 28 8 62 33 31
Andrew Faulkner L 25 47 0 46.3 37 29 5 46 27 25
Jimmy Yacabonis R 26 53 0 68.7 51 44 6 69 41 38
Zach Stewart R 31 21 19 103.3 69 43 17 118 67 63
Bobby Bundy R 28 22 0 29.0 21 15 4 31 18 17
Paco Rodriguez L 27 22 0 19.3 16 12 3 20 13 12
Joely Rodriguez L 26 57 0 65.7 44 32 8 72 40 37
Alec Asher R 26 29 19 111.0 76 30 24 129 75 70
Lucas Long R 25 28 16 114.3 81 35 25 134 77 72
John Means L 25 25 24 131.0 87 41 27 155 89 83
Keegan Akin L 23 20 20 86.3 75 52 16 92 60 56
Lucas Luetge L 31 34 0 42.7 37 22 9 46 29 27
Asher Wojciechowski R 29 27 15 89.3 75 33 20 103 62 58
Jayson Aquino L 25 25 22 119.7 78 44 23 140 81 76
Brandon Barker R 25 25 18 118.0 84 49 23 135 81 76
Jefri Hernandez R 27 38 0 58.3 40 30 10 66 40 37
David Hess R 24 25 24 131.0 86 52 27 153 92 86
Tim Berry L 27 43 0 49.3 42 39 8 52 35 33
Yefry Ramirez R 24 23 23 106.3 87 56 24 118 77 72
Jesus Liranzo R 23 31 10 56.7 60 44 14 58 45 42
Christian Binford R 25 25 23 136.3 86 47 29 166 98 92
Jordan Kipper R 25 25 20 119.0 54 44 24 151 88 82
Konner Wade R 26 31 17 104.0 59 34 28 135 86 80
Luis Lugo L 24 25 24 114.0 71 63 32 144 101 94

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Kevin Gausman 178.0 771 22.0% 7.3% .301 4.25 4.14 96 92
Dylan Bundy 159.3 676 22.0% 7.1% .283 4.12 4.18 93 92
Mychal Givens 73.7 311 28.3% 10.0% .289 3.30 3.43 75 76
Brad Brach 66.7 280 27.1% 9.3% .279 3.24 3.17 73 70
Zach Britton 53.0 223 22.9% 9.0% .280 2.89 2.80 65 62
Darren O’Day 52.0 214 31.3% 8.4% .286 3.12 3.23 70 71
Jeremy Hellickson 141.7 618 15.2% 6.1% .287 4.96 4.94 112 109
Ryan Meisinger 67.7 294 20.4% 9.2% .294 3.86 3.87 87 85
Tanner Scott 66.0 314 24.2% 20.1% .298 4.50 4.49 102 99
Wade Miley 150.7 678 19.0% 9.4% .305 5.02 4.68 113 103
Ubaldo Jimenez 131.0 586 20.3% 9.9% .301 5.02 4.67 113 103
Donnie Hart 59.3 256 18.0% 7.0% .297 3.94 3.93 89 87
Mike Wright 115.7 508 17.1% 7.1% .296 4.98 4.90 113 108
Richard Bleier 66.7 287 11.1% 4.2% .290 4.18 4.39 95 97
Stefan Crichton 68.0 300 16.7% 7.7% .302 4.50 4.41 102 97
Jason Gurka 52.3 226 21.2% 7.1% .301 4.30 4.04 97 89
Miguel Castro 85.3 378 13.8% 8.5% .288 4.54 4.47 102 99
Perci Garner 48.3 222 19.8% 14.4% .302 4.28 4.32 97 95
Matt Wotherspoon 73.0 325 21.8% 10.5% .298 4.81 4.69 109 104
Jeff Ferrell 58.7 256 21.1% 7.4% .302 4.45 4.28 101 95
Chris Tillman 130.7 586 16.4% 9.2% .288 5.30 5.19 120 115
Jason Garcia 85.7 398 14.6% 12.6% .297 5.04 5.10 114 113
Gabriel Ynoa 145.3 645 13.2% 5.6% .299 5.26 5.20 119 115
Josh Edgin 39.0 177 18.1% 11.9% .299 4.38 4.62 99 102
Hunter Harvey 16.7 73 26.0% 12.3% .286 4.32 4.24 98 94
Chris Lee 112.0 518 12.4% 10.4% .300 5.30 5.25 120 116
Tyler Wilson 121.0 540 13.5% 6.5% .299 5.36 5.20 121 115
Jhan Marinez 59.0 267 17.6% 10.5% .302 4.73 4.85 107 107
Andrew Faulkner 46.3 214 17.3% 13.6% .291 4.86 4.84 110 107
Jimmy Yacabonis 68.7 319 16.0% 13.8% .294 4.98 4.82 113 106
Zach Stewart 103.3 471 14.6% 9.1% .301 5.49 5.38 124 119
Bobby Bundy 29.0 133 15.8% 11.3% .297 5.28 5.26 119 116
Paco Rodriguez 19.3 90 17.8% 13.3% .293 5.59 5.38 126 119
Joely Rodriguez 65.7 301 14.6% 10.6% .300 5.07 4.95 115 110
Alec Asher 111.0 492 15.4% 6.1% .296 5.68 5.57 128 123
Lucas Long 114.3 512 15.8% 6.8% .299 5.67 5.66 128 125
John Means 131.0 589 14.8% 7.0% .300 5.70 5.63 129 124
Keegan Akin 86.3 403 18.6% 12.9% .298 5.84 5.81 132 128
Lucas Luetge 42.7 196 18.9% 11.2% .294 5.70 5.78 129 128
Asher Wojciechowski 89.3 404 18.6% 8.2% .306 5.84 5.63 132 124
Jayson Aquino 119.7 543 14.4% 8.1% .298 5.72 5.61 129 124
Brandon Barker 118.0 538 15.6% 9.1% .298 5.80 5.64 131 125
Jefri Hernandez 58.3 271 14.8% 11.1% .299 5.71 5.71 129 126
David Hess 131.0 598 14.4% 8.7% .296 5.91 5.85 134 129
Tim Berry 49.3 239 17.6% 16.3% .299 6.02 6.06 136 134
Yefry Ramirez 106.3 493 17.6% 11.4% .295 6.09 6.18 138 137
Jesus Liranzo 56.7 272 22.1% 16.2% .293 6.67 6.79 151 150
Christian Binford 136.3 622 13.8% 7.6% .302 6.07 5.83 137 129
Jordan Kipper 119.0 552 9.8% 8.0% .300 6.20 6.16 140 136
Konner Wade 104.0 481 12.3% 7.1% .302 6.92 6.68 156 148
Luis Lugo 114.0 549 12.9% 11.5% .298 7.42 7.40 168 164

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Kevin Gausman 178.0 8.60 2.83 1.31 101 2.6 Sidney Ponson
Dylan Bundy 159.3 8.42 2.71 1.30 104 2.5 Omar Olivares
Mychal Givens 73.7 10.75 3.79 0.86 129 1.6 Frank Williams
Brad Brach 66.7 10.26 3.51 0.81 132 1.5 Turk Wendell
Zach Britton 53.0 8.66 3.40 0.34 148 1.4 Steve Kline
Darren O’Day 52.0 11.60 3.12 1.04 137 1.2 Troy Percival
Jeremy Hellickson 141.7 5.97 2.41 1.52 86 0.9 Ismael Valdez
Ryan Meisinger 67.7 7.98 3.59 0.80 111 0.9 Turk Farrell
Tanner Scott 66.0 10.36 8.59 0.41 95 0.7 Nolan Ryan
Wade Miley 150.7 7.71 3.82 1.31 84 0.7 Shawn Estes
Ubaldo Jimenez 131.0 8.18 3.98 1.31 85 0.7 Ken Hill
Donnie Hart 59.3 6.98 2.73 0.91 108 0.7 Leo Kiely
Mike Wright 115.7 6.77 2.80 1.48 86 0.6 Travis Smith
Richard Bleier 66.7 4.32 1.62 1.08 102 0.5 Steve Hamilton
Stefan Crichton 68.0 6.62 3.04 1.06 95 0.4 Jack Cassel
Jason Gurka 52.3 8.25 2.75 1.20 99 0.4 Jason Kershner
Miguel Castro 85.3 5.48 3.38 0.95 94 0.4 Elias Sosa
Perci Garner 48.3 8.19 5.96 0.56 98 0.3 Ted Abernathy
Matt Wotherspoon 73.0 8.75 4.19 1.36 89 0.3 Jared Hoerman
Jeff Ferrell 58.7 8.28 2.91 1.38 96 0.3 Gary Majewski
Chris Tillman 130.7 6.61 3.72 1.52 81 0.3 Dick Fowler
Jason Garcia 85.7 6.09 5.25 0.95 85 0.3 Joe Hudson
Gabriel Ynoa 145.3 5.26 2.23 1.61 80 0.2 Nick Blackburn
Josh Edgin 39.0 7.38 4.85 0.92 96 0.2 Bill Kennedy
Hunter Harvey 16.7 10.26 4.86 1.08 99 0.2 Floyd Youmans
Chris Lee 112.0 5.14 4.34 1.13 81 0.2 Pete Cushing
Tyler Wilson 121.0 5.43 2.60 1.56 80 0.2 Arnie Portocarrero
Jhan Marinez 59.0 7.17 4.27 1.22 89 0.1 Bill Zuber
Andrew Faulkner 46.3 7.19 5.63 0.97 88 0.0 Mike Cosgrove
Jimmy Yacabonis 68.7 6.68 5.77 0.79 86 -0.1 Hal Reniff
Zach Stewart 103.3 6.01 3.75 1.48 77 -0.1 Dick Fowler
Bobby Bundy 29.0 6.52 4.66 1.24 81 -0.1 Ed Sprague
Paco Rodriguez 19.3 7.45 5.59 1.40 75 -0.2 Dean Brueggemann
Joely Rodriguez 65.7 6.03 4.39 1.10 83 -0.2 Philip Barzilla
Alec Asher 111.0 6.16 2.43 1.95 75 -0.3 Doug Vanderweele
Lucas Long 114.3 6.38 2.76 1.97 75 -0.3 Jason Jones
John Means 131.0 5.98 2.82 1.85 75 -0.3 Austin Shappi
Keegan Akin 86.3 7.82 5.42 1.67 72 -0.4 Mike King
Lucas Luetge 42.7 7.80 4.64 1.90 75 -0.4 Eddie Oropesa
Asher Wojciechowski 89.3 7.56 3.32 2.01 73 -0.4 Jason Roach
Jayson Aquino 119.7 5.87 3.31 1.73 74 -0.4 Jason Dickson
Brandon Barker 118.0 6.41 3.74 1.75 73 -0.6 Andy Cook
Jefri Hernandez 58.3 6.17 4.63 1.54 74 -0.6 Sean Green
David Hess 131.0 5.91 3.57 1.85 72 -0.6 Andy Cook
Tim Berry 49.3 7.66 7.11 1.46 71 -0.7 Dean Brueggemann
Yefry Ramirez 106.3 7.36 4.74 2.03 70 -0.7 Wray Bergendahl
Jesus Liranzo 56.7 9.53 6.99 2.22 64 -0.9 Greg Ferlenda
Christian Binford 136.3 5.68 3.10 1.91 70 -0.9 Pat Ahearne
Jordan Kipper 119.0 4.08 3.33 1.82 69 -1.0 Pat Ahearne
Konner Wade 104.0 5.11 2.94 2.42 61 -1.9 Justin Pope
Luis Lugo 114.0 5.61 4.97 2.53 58 -2.6 Matt White

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Baltimore Orioles by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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CamdenWarehouse
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CamdenWarehouse

Why does the creator of ZiPS hate my team?

Boxkutter
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Boxkutter

Not sure if you’re being serious or not, but Dan is actually a tortured Orioles fan as well.

CamdenWarehouse
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Member
CamdenWarehouse

very much a joke, but sweetened by Dan’s breakup with Os this week