2018 ZiPS Projections – Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Perhaps more strongly than any club examined to date in this series, the 2018 iteration of the Boston Red Sox resembles its immediate predecessor. For the most part, that’s to the club’s benefit. Last year’s team was projected to receive three or more wins from five different positions, for a total of roughly 19 WAR. This year’s team is also projected to receive three or more wins from five different positions, for a total of roughly 18 WAR. Considering that an average collection of hitters produces 18 wins total in a given season, one is forced to conclude that Boston’s core is strong.

The addition of third baseman Rafael Devers (611 PA, 2.6 zWAR) is quite helpful in this regard. Third base has represented a bit of a black hole in recent years for Boston. Will Middlebrooks (2013-14), Pablo Sandoval (2015, -17), and Travis Shaw (2016) have been the Opening Day starters at third for the Red Sox over that last five years. None have crossed the two-win threshold during that span.

The roster’s weaknesses, meanwhile, remain at the weaker end of the defensive spectrum. Neither first baseman Mitch Moreland (503, 0.9) nor Hanley Ramirez (524, 1.1) profile as anything much better than a platoon type.

Pitchers
As with the starting lineup, last year’s rotation also returns almost perfectly intact. Perennial Cy Young candidate Chris Sale (215.0 IP, 6.1 zWAR) is forecast to pitch like a Cy Young candidate. Drew Pomeranz (157.1, 3.0), Rick Porcello (189.1, 2.7), and David Price (163.2, 3.4), meanwhile, all receive above-average projections. Eduardo Rodriguez (152.2, 2.3) receives one of those, too, but is also expected to begin the season on the DL after knee surgery. Steven Wright (102.1, 0.9) is most likely to take his spot in the rotation.

In the bullpen, one finds that Craig Kimbrel (59.2 IP, 53 ERA-, 2.1 zWAR) is projected to record a strikeout rate of 41.7%. That is, even after accounting for regression and age-related decline, the mean outcome for Kimbrel is to produce a figure only ever matched in 15 other reliever seasons ever, including two authored by Kimbrel himself. He’ll occupy the closer’s role, naturally. Joe Kelly (56.1, 74, 1.0), meanwhile, receives the top projection among the club’s other bullpen options.

Bench/Prospects
Signed for $72.5 million in August of 2014, Rusney Castillo (405 PA, 0.9 zWAR) has recorded fewer than 350 plate appearances with Boston’s major-league club, including zero of them in 2018. Nevertheless, he earns the top projection of those players omitted from the depth-chart image below. Michael Chavis (513, 0.9), an actual prospect, receives the same WAR projection as Castillo. Brock Holt (385, 0.6), meanwhile, is best among those players expected to play a bench role with the parent club.

Right-hander Hector Velazquez (111.2 IP, 0.9 zWAR), now 29, was signed out of the Mexican League last offseason and recorded 24.2 roughly league-average innings. He receives the top forecast among the pitchers absent from the depth-chart image below.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Red Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mookie Betts R 25 RF 716 109 190 44 5 24 101 27 5
Xander Bogaerts R 25 SS 673 97 174 35 4 16 77 13 2
Andrew Benintendi L 23 LF 643 84 160 35 5 18 91 17 7
Rafael Devers L 21 3B 611 80 155 32 4 27 85 7 6
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 28 CF 551 71 125 26 4 18 71 8 2
Dustin Pedroia R 34 2B 498 57 127 22 0 9 54 4 3
Eduardo Nunez R 31 3B 494 58 134 28 2 11 60 24 8
Sandy Leon B 29 C 317 34 69 14 1 7 34 0 0
Hanley Ramirez R 34 DH 524 60 122 24 0 20 72 5 3
Christian Vazquez R 27 C 355 38 84 18 1 5 32 5 1
Mitch Moreland L 32 1B 503 55 114 28 0 18 71 0 1
Rusney Castillo R 30 CF 405 47 105 21 2 9 41 10 3
Michael Chavis R 22 3B 513 59 114 26 2 19 62 3 0
Matt Dominguez R 28 3B 488 49 116 22 0 15 59 2 1
Brock Holt! L 30 2B 385 48 91 17 2 5 31 6 2
Tzu-Wei Lin L 24 SS 453 45 100 15 5 6 34 12 7
Esteban Quiroz L 26 SS 339 55 75 22 0 7 50 6 2
Chris B. Young R 34 LF 274 32 58 15 1 8 28 4 2
Bryce Brentz R 29 LF 427 52 100 23 1 16 55 1 1
Blake Swihart B 26 C 307 34 64 12 2 5 26 3 1
Dan Butler R 31 C 268 25 56 16 0 3 23 0 0
Sam Travis R 24 1B 456 53 106 23 1 8 37 8 4
Jake Romanski R 27 C 272 24 64 12 0 3 21 2 3
Rajai Davis R 37 CF 368 54 83 18 2 6 26 28 6
Ryan Court R 30 SS 422 41 86 20 2 7 36 4 3
Deven Marrero R 27 SS 418 45 86 19 1 7 38 9 4
Jhonny Peralta R 36 3B 407 40 94 19 1 10 42 1 1
Ivan De Jesus R 31 3B 422 39 93 18 3 4 38 2 2
Chad de la Guerra L 25 SS 422 43 88 20 3 6 35 5 3
Jeremy Barfield R 29 RF 342 39 70 13 1 14 41 1 0
Aneury Tavarez L 26 RF 365 37 81 13 3 8 32 10 6
Jantzen Witte R 28 1B 366 37 80 21 2 5 31 3 3
Brian Bogusevic L 34 RF 357 39 80 17 2 9 39 6 4
Marco Hernandez L 25 2B 388 41 94 15 4 7 35 6 4
Josh Tobias B 25 2B 481 45 108 23 2 6 44 8 7
Steve Selsky R 28 RF 334 35 69 15 1 8 34 2 1
Josh Ockimey L 22 1B 539 58 105 25 1 14 54 2 4
Allen Craig R 33 1B 314 28 63 12 0 3 22 0 1
Joseph Monge R 23 CF 404 39 82 17 3 6 31 11 9
Cole Sturgeon L 26 CF 461 40 99 18 3 5 36 8 5
Danny Mars B 24 LF 495 45 109 16 4 4 35 13 10
Mike Olt R 29 1B 390 38 69 16 0 13 42 0 1
Henry Urrutia L 31 LF 387 35 85 16 0 4 31 2 2
Luke Tendler L 26 RF 500 50 102 23 2 10 46 2 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Mookie Betts 716 9.4% 11.6% .197 .308 .296 .362 .493 .362 123
Xander Bogaerts 673 7.9% 18.3% .149 .333 .285 .347 .434 .335 105
Andrew Benintendi 643 9.6% 15.7% .174 .311 .282 .354 .456 .343 111
Rafael Devers 611 6.9% 23.2% .213 .321 .273 .324 .487 .341 109
Jackie Bradley Jr. 551 8.9% 24.1% .179 .312 .255 .330 .434 .327 99
Dustin Pedroia 498 8.8% 10.8% .109 .303 .283 .346 .393 .321 95
Eduardo Nunez 494 4.0% 13.2% .139 .313 .288 .319 .427 .318 93
Sandy Leon 317 7.9% 23.0% .129 .298 .241 .305 .371 .293 76
Hanley Ramirez 524 9.7% 20.2% .181 .299 .262 .342 .443 .334 104
Christian Vazquez 355 5.9% 19.7% .107 .310 .256 .305 .363 .290 74
Mitch Moreland 503 8.2% 22.7% .181 .296 .252 .320 .433 .320 95
Rusney Castillo 405 3.7% 16.8% .136 .312 .274 .307 .410 .307 86
Michael Chavis 513 5.3% 28.1% .183 .302 .239 .290 .422 .303 83
Matt Dominguez 488 3.9% 17.6% .146 .277 .252 .285 .398 .290 74
Brock Holt! 385 8.6% 19.0% .104 .320 .264 .333 .368 .308 87
Tzu-Wei Lin 453 7.1% 19.9% .104 .294 .242 .295 .345 .279 67
Esteban Quiroz 339 8.3% 16.8% .141 .282 .247 .318 .388 .298 80
Chris B. Young 274 9.5% 21.2% .169 .281 .239 .319 .407 .313 90
Bryce Brentz 427 6.8% 25.5% .185 .310 .254 .307 .439 .318 93
Blake Swihart 307 7.5% 26.1% .110 .299 .228 .288 .338 .274 63
Dan Butler 268 8.2% 22.4% .104 .296 .233 .303 .338 .283 69
Sam Travis 456 8.6% 21.1% .119 .315 .257 .322 .375 .305 84
Jake Romanski 272 2.9% 17.6% .080 .289 .245 .269 .326 .258 52
Rajai Davis 368 6.3% 21.7% .117 .301 .243 .294 .361 .284 70
Ryan Court 422 8.1% 31.3% .118 .324 .226 .295 .344 .280 67
Deven Marrero 418 5.7% 28.7% .109 .302 .223 .270 .332 .262 55
Jhonny Peralta 407 7.1% 20.9% .137 .300 .253 .310 .390 .301 81
Ivan De Jesus 422 6.6% 22.0% .094 .308 .242 .301 .336 .279 67
Chad de la Guerra 422 7.1% 26.1% .114 .301 .229 .286 .343 .274 63
Jeremy Barfield 342 6.7% 28.4% .182 .275 .224 .284 .406 .295 78
Aneury Tavarez 365 5.2% 24.9% .127 .303 .240 .287 .367 .281 68
Jantzen Witte 366 8.2% 20.5% .122 .298 .243 .310 .365 .293 76
Brian Bogusevic 357 5.9% 23.5% .145 .297 .242 .294 .387 .292 75
Marco Hernandez 388 4.1% 24.2% .120 .325 .256 .288 .376 .284 70
Josh Tobias 481 4.6% 24.1% .101 .312 .243 .288 .344 .274 63
Steve Selsky 334 6.6% 32.6% .134 .321 .226 .287 .361 .282 69
Josh Ockimey 539 11.1% 33.2% .146 .320 .222 .310 .368 .293 76
Allen Craig 314 8.9% 24.8% .075 .299 .224 .303 .299 .271 61
Joseph Monge 404 4.7% 29.2% .110 .303 .219 .271 .329 .262 55
Cole Sturgeon 461 5.0% 23.6% .091 .297 .231 .274 .322 .260 54
Danny Mars 495 4.8% 24.6% .077 .308 .234 .274 .312 .256 51
Mike Olt 390 8.2% 35.4% .156 .275 .195 .265 .351 .268 59
Henry Urrutia 387 5.9% 25.1% .078 .309 .235 .282 .313 .262 55
Luke Tendler 500 6.6% 28.0% .124 .295 .222 .279 .346 .271 61

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Mookie Betts 716 7.2 125 17 5.5 Ellis Burks
Xander Bogaerts 673 5.9 107 -3 3.2 Craig Biggio
Andrew Benintendi 643 6.1 114 6 2.8 Elbie Fletcher
Rafael Devers 611 5.8 112 -2 2.6 Marcus Giles
Jackie Bradley Jr. 551 5.3 102 5 2.5 Will Venable
Dustin Pedroia 498 5.1 97 6 2.0 Willie Randolph
Eduardo Nunez 494 5.4 97 3 1.8 Julian Javier
Sandy Leon 317 4.0 79 4 1.1 Dave Parrish
Hanley Ramirez 524 5.5 107 0 1.1 Todd Zeile
Christian Vazquez 355 4.1 77 2 1.0 Dan Wilson
Mitch Moreland 503 4.9 98 5 0.9 Kevin Barker
Rusney Castillo 405 4.8 89 0 0.9 Chad Allen
Michael Chavis 513 4.4 87 -1 0.9 Tony Batista
Matt Dominguez 488 4.1 79 4 0.7 Pete Rose Jr.
Brock Holt! 385 4.6 87 -2 0.6 Steve Lyons
Tzu-Wei Lin 453 3.6 70 3 0.5 Justin Sellers
Esteban Quiroz 339 4.5 87 -3 0.4 Joe Morales
Chris B. Young 274 4.6 92 0 0.3 Reed Secrist
Bryce Brentz 427 4.8 96 -4 0.2 Kevin West
Blake Swihart 307 3.4 66 0 0.2 Elvis Corporan
Dan Butler 268 3.6 71 -2 0.2 Keith McDonald
Sam Travis 456 4.4 86 3 0.2 Chris Pritchett
Jake Romanski 272 3.0 58 4 0.1 Brian Bock
Rajai Davis 368 4.3 74 -3 0.1 Shawn Gilbert
Ryan Court 422 3.5 70 -1 0.1 Nick Green
Deven Marrero 418 3.1 59 4 0.0 Ignacio Suarez
Jhonny Peralta 407 4.3 85 -7 -0.1 Scott Brosius
Ivan De Jesus 422 3.5 70 0 -0.1 Marty Perez
Chad de la Guerra 422 3.4 67 -1 -0.1 Scott Leius
Jeremy Barfield 342 4.0 81 -1 -0.2 Jay Gainer
Aneury Tavarez 365 3.7 73 1 -0.4 Fredrick Tiburcio
Jantzen Witte 366 3.9 79 0 -0.5 Larry Kleinz
Brian Bogusevic 357 4.0 80 -3 -0.5 Emil Brown
Marco Hernandez 388 3.9 75 -6 -0.5 Fred Manrique
Josh Tobias 481 3.4 68 -2 -0.6 Charlie Hayes
Steve Selsky 334 3.6 72 -2 -0.6 Juan Richardson
Josh Ockimey 539 3.8 80 1 -0.7 Sam Horn
Allen Craig 314 3.1 62 2 -0.8 Ryan McGuire
Joseph Monge 404 2.9 59 -1 -0.9 Randy Walter
Cole Sturgeon 461 3.0 58 -2 -1.0 Erold Andrus
Danny Mars 495 2.9 56 6 -1.3 Mamon Tucker
Mike Olt 390 3.1 62 -1 -1.3 Chris Kirgan
Henry Urrutia 387 3.1 59 -2 -1.4 Orsino Hill
Luke Tendler 500 3.2 66 -4 -1.6 Angel Molina

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Chris Sale L 29 31 31 215.0 233 40 23 184 75 70
David Price L 32 27 25 163.7 165 36 20 159 70 65
Drew Pomeranz L 29 29 29 157.3 160 59 19 142 68 64
Rick Porcello R 29 30 30 189.3 164 40 29 205 93 87
Eduardo Rodriguez L 25 29 28 152.7 162 53 21 142 73 68
Craig Kimbrel R 30 62 0 59.7 100 25 6 36 17 16
Joe Kelly R 30 56 0 56.3 57 25 4 50 22 21
Steven Wright R 33 18 16 102.3 75 33 17 109 56 52
Heath Hembree R 29 57 0 61.7 66 20 8 59 27 25
Hector Velazquez R 29 21 21 111.7 80 43 16 124 63 59
Matt Barnes R 28 68 0 66.0 73 29 8 60 30 28
Brian Johnson L 27 21 21 103.7 77 44 15 113 60 56
Jalen Beeks L 24 25 25 128.3 114 60 21 135 76 71
Carson Smith R 28 43 0 41.7 39 18 3 39 18 17
Justin Haley R 27 24 18 95.7 71 35 13 106 55 51
Marcus Walden R 29 30 12 89.7 61 37 10 97 50 47
Edgar Olmos L 28 33 16 73.7 62 36 8 74 39 36
Tyler Thornburg R 29 46 0 47.3 51 25 4 40 21 20
Fernando Abad L 32 51 0 42.7 39 15 5 39 19 18
Bobby Poyner L 25 42 0 57.3 58 17 10 58 29 27
Robbie Ross Jr. L 29 39 0 42.3 38 17 4 42 20 19
Roenis Elias L 29 21 19 103.7 79 49 16 112 63 59
Brandon Workman R 29 49 0 58.3 57 25 8 57 30 28
Chandler Shepherd R 25 37 0 60.3 56 20 10 63 32 30
Kevin McAvoy R 24 23 22 112.3 76 56 15 126 71 66
Robby Scott L 28 55 0 48.3 43 18 8 49 27 25
Travis Lakins R 24 16 16 70.7 51 41 9 78 44 41
Erik Cordier R 32 30 0 31.7 39 30 3 26 17 16
Andy Ferguson R 29 20 18 94.7 74 32 21 109 62 58
Teddy Stankiewicz R 24 24 23 128.3 81 41 24 155 85 79
William Cuevas R 27 25 19 103.7 73 52 17 117 68 64
Ty Buttrey R 25 36 7 76.7 64 48 11 82 49 46
Trevor Kelley R 24 37 0 54.3 38 15 10 62 33 31
Ben Taylor R 25 31 0 33.7 25 17 6 39 21 20
Austin Maddox R 27 46 0 57.7 49 27 11 62 36 34
Elih Villanueva R 31 20 19 97.0 56 30 19 119 65 61
Williams Jerez L 26 38 0 61.7 50 32 10 68 40 37
Jake Cosart R 24 39 0 50.7 53 49 6 47 33 31
Shawn Haviland R 32 21 16 104.7 68 39 22 125 73 68
Kyle Kendrick R 33 20 20 105.7 59 27 24 133 75 70
Kyle Martin R 27 36 0 58.0 50 27 14 66 42 39
Yankory Pimentel R 24 23 1 47.0 36 27 11 55 36 34
Trey Ball L 24 24 23 111.0 75 68 22 134 83 78

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Chris Sale 215.0 869 26.8% 4.6% .289 2.93 3.12 65 73
David Price 163.7 686 24.1% 5.2% .302 3.57 3.46 79 81
Drew Pomeranz 157.3 673 23.8% 8.8% .285 3.66 3.86 81 90
Rick Porcello 189.3 813 20.2% 4.9% .307 4.14 4.13 91 96
Eduardo Rodriguez 152.7 653 24.8% 8.1% .294 4.01 3.94 88 92
Craig Kimbrel 59.7 240 41.7% 10.4% .283 2.41 2.52 53 59
Joe Kelly 56.3 244 23.4% 10.2% .295 3.36 3.49 74 81
Steven Wright 102.3 449 16.7% 7.3% .288 4.57 4.94 101 115
Heath Hembree 61.7 264 25.0% 7.6% .302 3.65 3.68 80 86
Hector Velazquez 111.7 502 15.9% 8.6% .303 4.76 4.82 105 112
Matt Barnes 66.0 287 25.4% 10.1% .297 3.82 3.93 84 92
Brian Johnson 103.7 468 16.5% 9.4% .300 4.86 4.97 107 116
Jalen Beeks 128.3 580 19.7% 10.3% .302 4.98 5.07 110 118
Carson Smith 41.7 182 21.4% 9.9% .303 3.67 3.66 81 85
Justin Haley 95.7 428 16.6% 8.2% .306 4.80 4.69 106 109
Marcus Walden 89.7 403 15.1% 9.2% .299 4.72 4.59 104 107
Edgar Olmos 73.7 331 18.7% 10.9% .299 4.40 4.47 97 104
Tyler Thornburg 47.3 207 24.6% 12.1% .288 3.80 3.75 84 87
Fernando Abad 42.7 182 21.4% 8.2% .279 3.80 3.84 84 89
Bobby Poyner 57.3 247 23.5% 6.9% .302 4.24 4.40 93 102
Robbie Ross Jr. 42.3 186 20.4% 9.1% .311 4.04 4.01 89 93
Roenis Elias 103.7 472 16.7% 10.4% .298 5.12 5.20 113 121
Brandon Workman 58.3 257 22.2% 9.7% .297 4.32 4.32 95 101
Chandler Shepherd 60.3 264 21.2% 7.6% .303 4.48 4.50 99 105
Kevin McAvoy 112.3 519 14.6% 10.8% .303 5.29 5.20 117 121
Robby Scott 48.3 212 20.3% 8.5% .293 4.66 4.83 103 113
Travis Lakins 70.7 331 15.4% 12.4% .307 5.22 5.32 115 124
Erik Cordier 31.7 151 25.8% 19.9% .299 4.55 4.86 100 113
Andy Ferguson 94.7 425 17.4% 7.5% .301 5.51 5.65 122 132
Teddy Stankiewicz 128.3 581 13.9% 7.1% .306 5.54 5.45 122 127
William Cuevas 103.7 480 15.2% 10.8% .301 5.56 5.56 123 129
Ty Buttrey 76.7 360 17.8% 13.3% .306 5.40 5.43 119 126
Trevor Kelley 54.3 240 15.8% 6.3% .299 5.13 5.09 113 119
Ben Taylor 33.7 157 15.9% 10.8% .308 5.35 5.68 118 132
Austin Maddox 57.7 262 18.7% 10.3% .297 5.31 5.45 117 127
Elih Villanueva 97.0 440 12.7% 6.8% .304 5.66 5.66 125 132
Williams Jerez 61.7 285 17.5% 11.2% .307 5.40 5.35 119 125
Jake Cosart 50.7 248 21.4% 19.8% .299 5.51 5.68 121 132
Shawn Haviland 104.7 478 14.2% 8.2% .300 5.85 5.85 129 136
Kyle Kendrick 105.7 477 12.4% 5.7% .301 5.96 5.87 131 137
Kyle Martin 58.0 267 18.7% 10.1% .301 6.05 6.02 133 140
Yankory Pimentel 47.0 223 16.1% 12.1% .299 6.51 6.52 144 152
Trey Ball 111.0 535 14.0% 12.7% .309 6.32 6.41 139 149

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale 215.0 9.75 1.67 0.96 148 6.1 Johan Santana
David Price 163.7 9.07 1.98 1.10 122 3.4 Harvey Haddix
Drew Pomeranz 157.3 9.15 3.38 1.09 119 3.0 Mike Hampton
Rick Porcello 189.3 7.80 1.90 1.38 105 2.7 Moose Haas
Eduardo Rodriguez 152.7 9.55 3.12 1.24 108 2.3 Chris Nabholz
Craig Kimbrel 59.7 15.08 3.77 0.91 178 2.1 Troy Percival
Joe Kelly 56.3 9.11 3.99 0.64 129 1.0 Ted Power
Steven Wright 102.3 6.60 2.90 1.50 95 0.9 Jim Slaton
Heath Hembree 61.7 9.63 2.92 1.17 119 0.9 Will Cunnane
Hector Velazquez 111.7 6.45 3.47 1.29 91 0.9 Omar Olivares
Matt Barnes 66.0 9.95 3.95 1.09 114 0.8 Jim Stoops
Brian Johnson 103.7 6.68 3.82 1.30 89 0.7 Tom Drees
Jalen Beeks 128.3 7.99 4.21 1.47 87 0.7 Jeremy Affeldt
Carson Smith 41.7 8.42 3.89 0.65 118 0.7 Mike Schultz
Justin Haley 95.7 6.68 3.29 1.22 91 0.6 Brian Allard
Marcus Walden 89.7 6.12 3.71 1.00 92 0.6 Ed Klieman
Edgar Olmos 73.7 7.57 4.40 0.98 97 0.5 Hal Woodeshick
Tyler Thornburg 47.3 9.70 4.75 0.76 113 0.5 Woody Williams
Fernando Abad 42.7 8.23 3.16 1.05 114 0.5 Steve Kline
Bobby Poyner 57.3 9.10 2.67 1.57 102 0.4 Ron Flores
Robbie Ross Jr. 42.3 8.08 3.61 0.85 108 0.4 Todd Rizzo
Roenis Elias 103.7 6.86 4.25 1.39 85 0.4 Tom Drees
Brandon Workman 58.3 8.79 3.86 1.23 101 0.4 Miguel Saladin
Chandler Shepherd 60.3 8.35 2.98 1.49 97 0.3 Carl Schramm
Kevin McAvoy 112.3 6.09 4.49 1.20 82 0.2 Jake Joseph
Robby Scott 48.3 8.01 3.35 1.49 93 0.1 Pete Filson
Travis Lakins 70.7 6.50 5.22 1.15 82 0.1 Jake Joseph
Erik Cordier 31.7 11.08 8.53 0.85 94 0.1 Marshall Bridges
Andy Ferguson 94.7 7.04 3.04 2.00 79 -0.1 Travis Smith
Teddy Stankiewicz 128.3 5.68 2.88 1.68 78 -0.1 Cameron Reimers
William Cuevas 103.7 6.34 4.51 1.48 78 -0.2 Charlie Zink
Ty Buttrey 76.7 7.51 5.63 1.29 80 -0.2 Sean Green
Trevor Kelley 54.3 6.29 2.48 1.66 85 -0.2 Dwayne Pollok
Ben Taylor 33.7 6.68 4.54 1.60 81 -0.2 Rick Greene
Austin Maddox 57.7 7.65 4.21 1.72 82 -0.3 Jamie Emiliano
Elih Villanueva 97.0 5.20 2.78 1.76 76 -0.3 Allen Davis
Williams Jerez 61.7 7.30 4.67 1.46 80 -0.4 Chad Miles
Jake Cosart 50.7 9.41 8.70 1.07 78 -0.4 Heathcliff Slocumb
Shawn Haviland 104.7 5.85 3.35 1.89 74 -0.5 Jason Roach
Kyle Kendrick 105.7 5.03 2.30 2.04 72 -0.7 Brian Tollberg
Kyle Martin 58.0 7.76 4.19 2.17 72 -0.8 Mumba Rivera
Yankory Pimentel 47.0 6.89 5.17 2.11 67 -0.8 Mark Pedersen
Trey Ball 111.0 6.08 5.51 1.78 69 -1.1 Josh Stewart

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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sebastiaoj
Member
sebastiaoj

Top 4 hitters…25,25,23,21. Probably still don’t make it out of the ALDS the next 5 years.