2018 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
To get a sense of where the White Sox currently reside along the win curve, consider this: nine days ago, the ZiPS projections for the Miami Marlins — a team actively attempting to divest itself of talent — appeared at this site. The players most likely to occupy a starting role for that team received a total of roughly 16 projected wins from Dan Szymborski’s computer. Chicago’s starters, meanwhile, earn just 11 WAR or so between them — this even though, because of the DH slot, the White Sox actually feature an additional field player in their hypothetical Opening Day lineup. It’s possible, in other words, that the White Sox’ positional core is only two-thirds as strong as the Marlins’. That isn’t what one would characterize as an “ideal” prognosis.

First baseman Jose Abreu (667 PA, 2.6 zWAR) unsurprisingly receives the club’s top projection. Since his arrival in 2014, he’s been the club’s best player, rivaled only by the departed Adam Eaton during that same interval.

White Sox’ Top-Five Players by WAR, 2014-17
Name PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Jose Abreu 2660 .301 .359 .524 139 107.2 -58.2 14.5
Adam Eaton 1933 .290 .362 .422 118 52.9 7.6 13.1
Todd Frazier 1001 .220 .311 .454 104 5.8 2.9 4.3
Avisail Garcia 1805 .275 .330 .419 104 5.8 -30.1 3.5
Alexei Ramirez 1279 .261 .295 .383 87 -22.1 6.9 2.9

Notably, it wasn’t Abreu, but rather Avisail Garcia (565, 1.4), who led the club in wins this past season. ZiPS forecasts significant regression for Garcia in 2018, however: indeed, even with the benefit of a projected .339 BABIP, his batting average is expected to drop 50 points. Are you familiar with Yolmer Sanchez? A lot of people in the world aren’t. He finished third on the club in WAR this past season, though. ZiPS calls for him to do that again.

Pitchers
While Chicago hitters were no great shakes in 2017, the club’s pitchers were even less good shakes, finishing 29th in WAR, just ahead of a Reds staff that has set multiple records for futility in recent seasons. No White Sox pitcher managed to reach the two-win threshold this past season. Even worse: none of the club’s top-five pitchers by WAR — Jose Quintana, Anthony Swarzak, Miguel Gonzalez, Tommy Kahnle, and David Robertson, in that order — remain employed by the club.

Were he healthy, Carlos Rodon (132.2 IP, 2.5 zWAR) would enter the season as the staff ace. A procedure to relieve bursitis in his left shoulder, however, will likely postpone his season debut. Lucas Giolito (161.0, 2.3), meanwhile, is the only other pitcher forecast to produce two or more wins. Another part of the Adam Eaton trade with Washington, Reynaldo Lopez (156.1, 1.4), is the only other pitcher both (a) expected to make the Opening Day roster and (b) projected for as much as even one win.

Among relievers, Gregory Infante (57.0 IP, 84 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) and Juan Minaya (61.0, 89, 0.9) both represent promising high-leverage options, while the return of Nate Jones (40.0, 83, 0.7) ought to add some depth to the back end of the bullpen.

Bench/Prospects
As is frequently the case with rebuilding clubs, some of the top projections for the White Sox are actually assessed to players who are unlikely to break camp with the team. Outfielder Eloy Jimenez (454, 1.5 zWAR), for example, is the recipient of the third-best WAR forecast among position players. Young right-handers Michael Kopech (133.2 IP, 1.7 zWAR) and Alec Hansen (146.1, 1.6), meanwhile, earn the third- and fourth-best WAR figures from ZiPS of the organization’s pitchers.

Leury Garcia (371, 0.8) is omitted from the depth-chart image below but figures to play a bench role in the majors. He’s projected here as a center fielder, although that’s merely one of five positions at which he appeared in 2017. Prospect Zack Burdi (49.0 IP, 89 ERA-, 0.7 zWAR) is unlikely to appear until late 2018 after undergoing Tommy John in July. He receives a promising forecast, however.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the White Sox, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Jose Abreu R 31 1B 667 80 174 35 3 31 104 2 1
Yoan Moncada B 23 2B 618 80 133 20 4 19 60 24 11
Eloy Jimenez R 21 RF 454 57 110 22 3 23 61 3 4
Yolmer Sanchez B 26 2B 539 59 123 22 5 12 57 8 6
Avisail Garcia R 27 RF 565 70 146 23 3 17 75 6 4
Welington Castillo R 31 C 395 38 87 14 0 17 54 0 0
Nick Delmonico L 25 LF 309 39 67 16 0 13 42 3 1
Tim Anderson R 25 SS 624 70 152 25 6 15 54 18 4
Leury Garcia B 27 CF 371 43 88 13 3 9 35 14 7
Zack Collins L 23 C 428 50 70 15 2 15 46 0 2
Kevan Smith R 30 C 346 33 79 15 1 7 33 0 0
Tyler Saladino R 28 2B 361 38 76 12 3 6 29 11 4
Rob Brantly L 28 C 339 37 78 11 1 9 36 1 2
Jake Peter L 25 2B 544 54 118 19 3 9 46 9 4
Omar Narvaez L 26 C 327 29 73 9 0 2 18 0 0
Geovany Soto R 35 C 129 13 26 6 0 5 17 0 0
Patrick Leonard R 25 3B 531 57 110 24 2 13 51 10 2
Roberto Pena R 26 C 265 23 56 10 0 4 21 0 0
Ronald Bueno B 25 3B 359 35 70 13 3 5 29 4 7
Eddy Alvarez B 28 SS 498 49 93 16 2 6 36 11 6
Casey Gillaspie B 25 1B 498 59 105 21 1 18 57 2 1
Matt Skole L 28 1B 439 52 81 17 1 19 52 1 1
Ryan Cordell R 26 RF 414 46 81 14 3 13 42 10 4
Luis Alexander Basabe B 21 CF 474 48 87 15 4 11 39 15 7
Adam Engel R 26 CF 545 56 95 18 5 11 42 21 8
Charlie Tilson L 25 CF 438 45 98 12 6 5 32 16 8
Tyler Ladendorf R 30 SS 212 20 41 8 1 2 14 2 1
Daniel Palka L 26 RF 484 57 97 16 2 23 58 6 4
Rymer Liriano R 27 RF 511 56 101 18 2 14 51 10 6
Danny Hayes L 27 1B 478 50 86 18 2 14 51 0 1
Matt Davidson R 27 3B 470 49 88 16 0 22 65 0 1
Trey Michalczewski B 23 3B 522 52 98 18 3 15 52 7 1
Willy Garcia R 25 RF 426 46 84 17 3 13 45 3 4
Jacob May B 26 CF 467 42 94 12 3 4 29 24 9
Hunter Jones R 26 CF 464 43 88 15 4 7 36 13 5
Everth Cabrera B 31 SS 229 20 45 6 0 1 11 10 3
Brett Austin B 25 C 281 24 46 9 1 6 25 0 0
Jose Vinicio B 24 2B 349 28 74 11 3 4 23 8 5
Jason Bourgeois R 36 LF 338 32 78 10 2 3 24 7 3
Micker Adolfo R 21 RF 464 46 79 17 2 17 52 1 1
Courtney Hawkins R 24 LF 410 38 68 15 1 15 46 0 2
Jameson Fisher L 24 LF 495 48 87 19 3 8 40 5 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Jose Abreu 667 5.8% 18.7% .220 .312 .286 .340 .506 .353 122
Yoan Moncada 618 11.3% 28.3% .158 .328 .247 .337 .404 .322 100
Eloy Jimenez 454 6.6% 28.9% .230 .325 .261 .313 .492 .336 110
Yolmer Sanchez 539 5.8% 21.7% .138 .302 .249 .297 .387 .294 81
Avisail Garcia 565 6.2% 22.1% .154 .339 .281 .335 .435 .328 105
Welington Castillo 395 6.8% 27.8% .180 .295 .241 .299 .421 .307 90
Nick Delmonico 309 9.1% 27.2% .199 .298 .243 .315 .442 .323 101
Tim Anderson 624 2.4% 27.2% .136 .329 .253 .274 .389 .283 74
Leury Garcia 371 4.6% 22.4% .134 .312 .257 .300 .391 .296 83
Zack Collins 428 13.8% 36.9% .175 .285 .192 .305 .367 .295 82
Kevan Smith 346 5.5% 18.8% .119 .289 .248 .297 .368 .288 77
Tyler Saladino 361 6.6% 21.6% .110 .283 .232 .288 .341 .275 68
Rob Brantly 339 4.4% 18.3% .127 .278 .247 .289 .373 .286 76
Jake Peter 544 6.4% 25.7% .104 .309 .236 .292 .341 .277 70
Omar Narvaez 327 9.8% 15.0% .052 .295 .252 .326 .303 .283 74
Geovany Soto 129 7.8% 27.1% .179 .273 .222 .289 .402 .298 84
Patrick Leonard 531 6.4% 29.8% .137 .303 .225 .282 .363 .280 72
Roberto Pena 265 4.2% 18.1% .089 .264 .226 .263 .315 .252 53
Ronald Bueno 359 8.6% 24.2% .107 .284 .219 .291 .326 .272 67
Eddy Alvarez 498 9.8% 25.9% .087 .285 .213 .295 .300 .267 63
Casey Gillaspie 498 9.2% 24.3% .173 .280 .235 .307 .408 .306 90
Matt Skole 439 11.2% 32.6% .197 .274 .210 .301 .407 .305 89
Ryan Cordell 414 6.5% 30.0% .155 .276 .213 .269 .368 .273 67
Luis Alexander Basabe 474 8.2% 33.1% .131 .290 .203 .273 .334 .264 61
Adam Engel 545 7.2% 33.4% .124 .282 .194 .264 .318 .256 55
Charlie Tilson 438 5.7% 20.3% .096 .296 .241 .287 .337 .271 66
Tyler Ladendorf 212 6.1% 21.7% .082 .264 .210 .265 .292 .247 49
Daniel Palka 484 7.4% 33.3% .201 .282 .219 .279 .421 .296 82
Rymer Liriano 511 7.8% 32.5% .138 .305 .218 .286 .356 .280 72
Danny Hayes 478 11.5% 32.8% .153 .289 .206 .298 .360 .287 77
Matt Davidson 470 6.6% 37.4% .191 .281 .205 .264 .395 .281 72
Trey Michalczewski 522 7.3% 35.6% .146 .301 .207 .271 .352 .270 65
Willy Garcia 426 6.6% 33.3% .159 .298 .215 .271 .374 .276 69
Jacob May 467 5.1% 27.4% .070 .303 .220 .267 .290 .246 49
Hunter Jones 464 6.3% 26.9% .105 .277 .209 .271 .314 .258 57
Everth Cabrera 229 7.0% 22.3% .043 .280 .217 .274 .261 .241 45
Brett Austin 281 7.5% 37.0% .113 .270 .180 .240 .293 .234 41
Jose Vinicio 349 2.6% 26.6% .087 .297 .223 .245 .310 .240 44
Jason Bourgeois 338 4.7% 14.8% .072 .281 .245 .282 .317 .262 60
Micker Adolfo 464 5.2% 43.8% .167 .294 .184 .240 .351 .254 54
Courtney Hawkins 410 4.9% 43.9% .162 .277 .178 .222 .339 .239 44
Jameson Fisher 495 8.3% 30.3% .111 .276 .197 .276 .308 .260 58

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Jose Abreu 667 6.5 130 -2 2.6 Steve Garvey
Yoan Moncada 618 4.9 104 1 2.4 Delino DeShields
Eloy Jimenez 454 5.5 118 0 1.5 Dwight Evans
Yolmer Sanchez 539 4.0 87 7 1.4 Mike Tyson
Avisail Garcia 565 5.4 111 -2 1.4 Roberto Clemente
Welington Castillo 395 4.5 96 -3 1.3 Javy Lopez
Nick Delmonico 309 5.0 106 2 1.0 Adam LaRoche
Tim Anderson 624 4.0 81 -1 0.9 Royce Clayton
Leury Garcia 371 4.3 89 2 0.8 Stan Javier
Zack Collins 428 3.6 85 -4 0.8 Brian Deak
Kevan Smith 346 3.9 82 -2 0.6 Cody Mckay
Tyler Saladino 361 3.5 73 6 0.6 Derek Wathan
Rob Brantly 339 3.8 81 -2 0.5 Humberto Quintero
Jake Peter 544 3.5 74 4 0.5 Mike Champion
Omar Narvaez 327 3.6 76 -2 0.5 Michel Hernandez
Geovany Soto 129 4.0 88 0 0.4 Mike Macfarlane
Patrick Leonard 531 3.7 77 0 0.3 Jim Opie
Roberto Pena 265 2.9 59 4 0.3 Fernando Lunar
Ronald Bueno 359 3.0 71 5 0.2 Tony Woods
Eddy Alvarez 498 3.0 66 2 0.2 Taber Lee
Casey Gillaspie 498 4.4 96 0 0.2 Brian Turner
Matt Skole 439 4.2 93 0 0.1 Brandon Sing
Ryan Cordell 414 3.5 74 6 -0.1 Jackson Melian
Luis Alexander Basabe 474 3.1 67 3 -0.1 Jeff McNeely
Adam Engel 545 2.9 60 6 -0.2 Travis Becktel
Charlie Tilson 438 3.5 72 -1 -0.2 Elijah Bonaparte
Tyler Ladendorf 212 2.7 54 1 -0.2 Juan Castro
Daniel Palka 484 4.0 90 -3 -0.2 Michael Wilson
Rymer Liriano 511 3.5 76 4 -0.2 Wil Culmer
Danny Hayes 478 3.6 81 3 -0.3 Steve Neal
Matt Davidson 470 3.5 79 -5 -0.4 Juan Richardson
Trey Michalczewski 522 3.4 71 -3 -0.4 Woody Woods
Willy Garcia 426 3.4 76 2 -0.4 Justin Bowles
Jacob May 467 2.8 54 6 -0.4 Tony Triplett
Hunter Jones 464 3.0 61 0 -0.6 Barry Wesson
Everth Cabrera 229 2.7 50 -3 -0.7 Pablo Martinez
Brett Austin 281 2.3 47 -2 -0.7 Francisco Morales
Jose Vinicio 349 2.6 52 2 -0.8 Mike Huyler
Jason Bourgeois 338 3.2 65 -3 -1.2 Jose Cruz
Micker Adolfo 464 2.8 61 -3 -1.7 Andy Brown
Courtney Hawkins 410 2.4 52 -4 -2.2 Brian Pettway
Jameson Fisher 495 2.6 61 -9 -2.4 Jon Hamilton

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Carlos Rodon L 25 23 23 132.7 139 55 15 124 62 58
Lucas Giolito R 23 29 29 161.0 152 64 22 154 81 76
Michael Kopech R 22 27 27 133.7 157 80 16 111 71 66
Alec Hansen R 23 23 23 146.3 144 64 23 142 80 75
Reynaldo Lopez R 24 29 28 156.3 150 64 25 156 88 82
Gregory Infante R 30 56 0 57.0 54 28 4 51 25 23
Juan Minaya R 27 50 0 61.0 59 27 5 56 28 26
Tyler Danish R 23 26 24 135.3 66 51 16 157 81 76
Brian Clark L 25 35 0 46.0 35 16 3 46 20 19
Nate Jones R 32 43 0 40.0 49 12 6 34 17 16
Zack Burdi R 23 40 0 49.0 60 28 5 41 22 21
James Shields R 36 24 24 134.3 113 54 26 142 82 77
Jake Petricka R 30 39 0 41.3 34 14 3 41 19 18
Jordan Guerrero L 24 24 24 129.7 99 57 20 143 80 75
Thyago Vieira R 24 43 0 52.0 40 28 3 51 26 24
Zach Putnam R 30 47 0 46.7 63 24 7 39 22 21
Al Alburquerque R 32 51 0 48.7 50 23 5 44 24 22
Chris Volstad R 31 29 21 133.0 64 38 19 156 82 77
Danny Farquhar R 31 63 0 63.3 63 28 9 60 33 31
Matt Cooper R 26 21 12 78.0 74 33 14 80 47 44
Jace Fry L 24 46 0 51.0 46 37 3 48 27 25
Carson Fulmer R 24 29 27 132.0 101 78 18 139 85 79
Mike Pelfrey R 34 28 21 111.3 64 47 17 130 71 66
Rob Scahill R 31 43 0 48.0 34 18 5 51 26 24
Jordan Stephens R 25 19 19 98.3 83 46 17 105 63 59
Dustin Antolin R 28 31 3 50.3 44 32 5 50 30 28
Steve Johnson R 30 26 9 63.0 62 32 12 63 40 37
Brandon Brennan R 26 45 0 55.3 42 34 5 56 32 30
Michael Ynoa R 26 35 0 43.0 39 29 5 42 26 24
Cory Luebke L 33 14 1 22.3 23 8 5 23 14 13
Aaron Bummer L 24 56 0 62.7 57 38 8 60 37 35
Ian Clarkin L 23 19 18 82.7 52 44 13 94 56 52
Derek Holland L 31 25 22 116.7 86 53 22 128 78 73
Bobby Parnell R 33 33 0 36.0 25 24 3 38 22 21
Connor Walsh R 25 39 0 51.3 54 46 5 46 32 30
Chris Beck R 27 61 0 70.7 48 35 10 77 44 41
Spencer Adams R 22 26 26 144.3 85 42 28 174 97 91
Mark Lowe R 35 42 0 46.7 41 21 9 50 30 28
Brad Goldberg R 28 43 0 51.7 45 38 7 52 33 31
Jean Machi R 36 44 3 57.3 46 21 12 62 37 35
Colton Turner L 27 36 2 56.0 47 29 10 60 37 35
Jose Ruiz R 23 47 0 47.3 39 34 7 50 32 30
Dylan Covey R 26 22 17 88.3 52 43 16 103 63 59
Robinson Leyer R 25 48 0 57.3 50 37 9 60 39 36
David Holmberg L 26 35 18 109.7 68 46 23 128 77 72

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Carlos Rodon 132.7 577 24.1% 9.5% .301 3.93 3.89 91 87
Lucas Giolito 161.0 701 21.7% 9.1% .290 4.25 4.39 98 99
Michael Kopech 133.7 592 26.5% 13.5% .286 4.44 4.32 103 97
Alec Hansen 146.3 645 22.3% 9.9% .293 4.61 4.71 106 106
Reynaldo Lopez 156.3 689 21.8% 9.3% .295 4.72 4.64 109 104
Gregory Infante 57.0 250 21.6% 11.2% .292 3.63 3.70 84 83
Juan Minaya 61.0 266 22.2% 10.2% .298 3.84 3.76 89 85
Tyler Danish 135.3 614 10.7% 8.3% .297 5.05 5.00 117 113
Brian Clark 46.0 200 17.5% 8.0% .299 3.72 3.66 86 82
Nate Jones 40.0 166 29.5% 7.2% .289 3.60 3.56 83 80
Zack Burdi 49.0 216 27.8% 13.0% .300 3.86 3.87 89 87
James Shields 134.3 599 18.9% 9.0% .290 5.16 5.29 119 119
Jake Petricka 41.3 179 19.0% 7.8% .299 3.92 3.47 90 78
Jordan Guerrero 129.7 589 16.8% 9.7% .303 5.21 5.09 120 115
Thyago Vieira 52.0 235 17.0% 11.9% .298 4.15 4.16 96 93
Zach Putnam 46.7 203 31.0% 11.8% .305 4.05 3.89 93 87
Al Alburquerque 48.7 213 23.5% 10.8% .293 4.07 3.92 94 88
Chris Volstad 133.0 593 10.8% 6.4% .295 5.21 5.07 120 114
Danny Farquhar 63.3 278 22.7% 10.1% .293 4.41 4.44 102 100
Matt Cooper 78.0 347 21.3% 9.5% .299 5.08 5.02 117 113
Jace Fry 51.0 238 19.3% 15.5% .300 4.41 4.24 102 95
Carson Fulmer 132.0 613 16.5% 12.7% .297 5.39 5.35 124 120
Mike Pelfrey 111.3 511 12.5% 9.2% .301 5.34 5.45 123 122
Rob Scahill 48.0 213 16.0% 8.5% .301 4.50 4.22 104 95
Jordan Stephens 98.3 446 18.6% 10.3% .299 5.40 5.30 125 119
Dustin Antolin 50.3 233 18.9% 13.7% .302 5.01 4.73 116 106
Steve Johnson 63.0 284 21.8% 11.3% .291 5.29 5.28 122 119
Brandon Brennan 55.3 256 16.4% 13.3% .297 4.88 4.71 113 106
Michael Ynoa 43.0 200 19.5% 14.5% .301 5.02 5.02 116 113
Cory Luebke 22.3 98 23.5% 8.2% .295 5.24 5.22 121 117
Aaron Bummer 62.7 286 19.9% 13.3% .291 5.03 4.91 116 110
Ian Clarkin 82.7 386 13.5% 11.4% .299 5.66 5.76 131 129
Derek Holland 116.7 531 16.2% 10.0% .290 5.63 5.57 130 125
Bobby Parnell 36.0 170 14.7% 14.1% .302 5.25 4.94 121 111
Connor Walsh 51.3 246 22.0% 18.7% .297 5.26 5.13 121 115
Chris Beck 70.7 324 14.8% 10.8% .295 5.22 5.17 121 116
Spencer Adams 144.3 649 13.1% 6.5% .300 5.67 5.52 131 124
Mark Lowe 46.7 211 19.4% 10.0% .297 5.40 5.26 125 118
Brad Goldberg 51.7 245 18.4% 15.5% .296 5.40 5.56 125 125
Jean Machi 57.3 255 18.0% 8.2% .287 5.49 5.43 127 122
Colton Turner 56.0 257 18.3% 11.3% .299 5.62 5.41 130 122
Jose Ruiz 47.3 226 17.3% 15.0% .299 5.70 5.71 132 128
Dylan Covey 88.3 411 12.7% 10.5% .294 6.01 5.93 139 133
Robinson Leyer 57.3 269 18.6% 13.8% .302 5.65 5.49 130 124
David Holmberg 109.7 503 13.5% 9.1% .292 5.91 6.04 136 136

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Carlos Rodon 132.7 9.43 3.73 1.02 109 2.5 Danny Jackson
Lucas Giolito 161.0 8.50 3.58 1.23 100 2.3 Jon Garland
Michael Kopech 133.7 10.57 5.39 1.08 97 1.7 Ubaldo Jimenez
Alec Hansen 146.3 8.86 3.94 1.41 93 1.6 Ron Darling
Reynaldo Lopez 156.3 8.64 3.68 1.44 90 1.4 Adam Eaton
Gregory Infante 57.0 8.53 4.42 0.63 118 0.9 Ed Farmer
Juan Minaya 61.0 8.70 3.98 0.74 112 0.9 Mike Schultz
Tyler Danish 135.3 4.39 3.39 1.06 85 0.8 Jake Joseph
Brian Clark 46.0 6.85 3.13 0.59 116 0.7 Wilbur Wood
Nate Jones 40.0 11.03 2.70 1.35 120 0.7 Mike Jackson
Zack Burdi 49.0 11.02 5.14 0.92 112 0.7 Mark Littell
James Shields 134.3 7.57 3.62 1.74 83 0.6 Steve Trachsel
Jake Petricka 41.3 7.40 3.05 0.65 110 0.5 Jose Santiago
Jordan Guerrero 129.7 6.87 3.96 1.39 83 0.5 Wes Whisler
Thyago Vieira 52.0 6.92 4.85 0.52 104 0.5 Hal Reniff
Zach Putnam 46.7 12.15 4.63 1.35 106 0.5 Colter Bean
Al Alburquerque 48.7 9.25 4.25 0.92 106 0.5 Jim Hughes
Chris Volstad 133.0 4.33 2.57 1.29 83 0.5 Don Nottebart
Danny Farquhar 63.3 8.95 3.98 1.28 98 0.4 Jim Czajkowski
Matt Cooper 78.0 8.54 3.81 1.62 85 0.4 Wes Obermueller
Jace Fry 51.0 8.12 6.53 0.53 98 0.3 Mike Murphy
Carson Fulmer 132.0 6.89 5.32 1.23 80 0.2 Rick Berg
Mike Pelfrey 111.3 5.17 3.80 1.37 81 0.2 Sid Hudson
Rob Scahill 48.0 6.38 3.38 0.94 94 0.2 Eddie Watt
Jordan Stephens 98.3 7.60 4.21 1.56 80 0.2 Dave Coggin
Dustin Antolin 50.3 7.87 5.72 0.89 86 0.1 Newt Kimball
Steve Johnson 63.0 8.86 4.57 1.71 81 0.1 Matt Albers
Brandon Brennan 55.3 6.83 5.53 0.81 88 0.1 Sam Nahem
Michael Ynoa 43.0 8.16 6.07 1.05 86 0.0 Ken Wright
Cory Luebke 22.3 9.27 3.22 2.01 81 0.0 Jerry Augustine
Aaron Bummer 62.7 8.19 5.46 1.15 86 -0.1 Mike Bell
Ian Clarkin 82.7 5.66 4.79 1.42 76 -0.1 Derek Thompson
Derek Holland 116.7 6.63 4.09 1.70 76 -0.1 Joe Magrane
Bobby Parnell 36.0 6.25 6.00 0.75 81 -0.2 Jerry Johnson
Connor Walsh 51.3 9.47 8.06 0.88 82 -0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb
Chris Beck 70.7 6.11 4.46 1.27 82 -0.2 Bill Swaggerty
Spencer Adams 144.3 5.30 2.62 1.75 76 -0.2 Cameron Reimers
Mark Lowe 46.7 7.91 4.05 1.74 80 -0.3 Johnny Klippstein
Brad Goldberg 51.7 7.84 6.62 1.22 80 -0.3 Jake Robbins
Jean Machi 57.3 7.22 3.30 1.88 77 -0.3 Kirk Bullinger
Colton Turner 56.0 7.55 4.66 1.61 76 -0.4 Danny Young
Jose Ruiz 47.3 7.42 6.46 1.33 75 -0.4 Lloyd Allen
Dylan Covey 88.3 5.30 4.38 1.63 72 -0.5 Kevin Hodges
Robinson Leyer 57.3 7.85 5.81 1.41 76 -0.5 Pete Sikaras
David Holmberg 109.7 5.58 3.78 1.89 72 -0.6 Keith Walker

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Chicago White Sox by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Pinstripe Wizard
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Yolmer Sanchez is playing the wrong sport.

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