2018 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The 2017 campaign wasn’t what anyone would characterize as an “overwhelming success” for Cincinnati. The club finished 26 games under .500. Their BaseRuns record wasn’t much better, either. All in all, it was the sort of season one might expect from a rebuilding club.

A brief inspection of the numbers, however, reveals that the club’s position players were actually pretty good. Due largely to a defensive performance rated highly both by DRS and UZR, the Reds’ batters and fielders recorded the 10th-best WAR in the league. The team’s pitchers, meanwhile, ranked 30th by that measure. The split was the second largest in all the league.

Largest Team Offense/Defense WAR Ranks, 2017
Rank Club Position Rank Pitch Rank Difference
1 Marlins 7 28 21
2 Reds 10 30 20
3 Blue Jays 29 11 18
4 Rockies 22 8 14
5 Twins 9 22 13
6 Pirates 27 14 13
7 Mariners 12 23 11
8 Phillies 26 15 11
9 Red Sox 15 4 11
10 Mets 11 21 10

The defense should be a strength once again in 2018. While free agent Zack Cozart (projected for +7 runs at shortstop and 3.0 zWAR overall) is unlikely to return to Cincinnati, both catcher Tucker Barnhart (+9, 2.5) and center fielder Billy Hamilton (+12, 2.3) return to a roster populated mostly by average-or-better fielders.

As for Joey Votto (5.3 zWAR), he isn’t projected to be an elite defender. He is, however, forecast to be the club’s best player — by a couple wins, in this case. Eugenio Suarez (3.5 zWAR) is the team’s other All-Star candidate according to the projections.

Pitchers
As noted, Cincinnati’s pitching staff represented a real weakness for the club in 2017, barely clearing replacement level as a group. While the projections call for some improvement in 2018, there remains little present talent here. Luis Castillo (156.1 IP, 2.9 zWAR) is expected to build on an impressive rookie season, but he’s the only Reds pitcher forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to cross the two-win threshold next year. While the rotation features some promise — extracting more than three wins from Tyler Mahle (151.0, 1.6) and Sal Romano (143.1, 1.7), for example, would count as a positive development — there appears to be little indication that they’ll even approach average.

As for the club’s relievers, they both (a) produced only 0.9 WAR as a group in 2017 and (b) were markedly improved over the 2016 edition that became the first modern bullpen to produce a negative WAR. Right-hander Raisel Iglesias (69.1 IP, 74 ERA-) is the star of the current group, but a number of others (Austin Brice, Wandy Peralta, Kevin Shackelford) are forecast to prevent runs at something like an average rate. Overall, the bullpen seems likely to continue creeping in the direction of “acceptably mediocre” and away from “historically bad.”

Bench/Prospects
Despite having recorded just a half-season above High-A, third baseman Nick Senzel (503 PA, 2.1 zWAR) already profiles as a league-average player according to Szymborski’s computer. The No. 2 pick of the 2016 draft has been excellent so far as a professional and ZiPS calls for more of that, forecasting strong quality-of-contact numbers (.330 BABIP, .179 ISO), in particular. Jesse Winker (510, 1.4) had failed to exhibit much power in the minors before producing a .231 isolated-slugging mark this past season in his first 137 plate appearances as a professional. ZiPS doesn’t forecast anything like that for Winker in 2018, but nevertheless projects a league-average bat. Phillip Ervin (474, 0.9) profiles as a fine bench player for the moment.

Among pitchers, Luis Castillo and Sal Romano both exceeded their limits in 2017, rendering Tyler Mahle the top rookie-eligible pitcher in the organization by ZiPS wins. Jose Lopez (131.0, 0.9) and Jackson Stephens (152.0, 0.7) are forecast to record something better than replacement-level production. Jimmy Herget (61.1, 0.5), who was dominant at Double-A and proficient at Triple-A in 2017, receives the best projection among rookie-eligible relievers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Joey Votto L 34 1B 624 87 151 31 1 25 88 6 2
Eugenio Suarez R 26 3B 618 81 139 26 3 25 83 7 5
Zack Cozart R 32 SS 438 58 103 20 4 15 52 4 2
Tucker Barnhart B 27 C 406 31 94 19 2 7 42 3 0
Billy Hamilton B 27 CF 588 80 135 20 8 5 37 60 13
Nick Senzel R 23 3B 503 63 124 29 4 15 59 13 7
Adam Duvall R 29 LF 607 76 137 32 4 31 100 5 3
Scott Schebler L 27 RF 552 70 124 22 6 24 80 7 3
Jesse Winker L 24 RF 510 60 119 23 0 12 50 4 4
Scooter Gennett L 28 2B 523 66 129 26 3 19 74 4 3
Jose Peraza R 24 2B 560 57 142 16 7 7 47 27 9
Phil Ervin R 25 LF 474 54 97 21 3 13 52 20 7
Dilson Herrera R 24 2B 413 48 91 17 3 13 49 6 7
Alex Blandino R 25 2B 485 55 99 25 2 12 45 6 7
Devin Mesoraco R 30 C 241 26 46 10 1 10 29 1 1
Chadwick Tromp R 23 C 287 28 62 12 0 5 26 1 1
Shed Long L 22 2B 502 55 106 20 4 16 55 10 5
Mason Williams L 26 CF 422 41 93 15 3 4 30 13 4
Stuart Turner R 26 C 303 28 57 9 1 6 26 2 2
Brandon Dixon R 26 3B 496 54 102 21 3 17 59 13 6
Sebastian Elizalde L 26 RF 536 54 126 21 5 11 56 5 4
D.J. Peterson R 26 3B 506 55 109 21 1 18 61 4 2
Taylor Trammell L 20 LF 536 57 109 17 6 10 50 29 13
Tyler Goeddel R 25 LF 462 46 96 17 4 8 41 13 5
Taylor Sparks R 25 3B 410 42 67 13 2 16 48 4 2
Darnell Sweeney B 27 CF 514 57 108 22 4 13 52 15 12
Aristides Aquino R 24 RF 499 55 104 20 7 16 65 7 4
Jose Siri R 22 CF 538 58 110 17 6 17 57 29 13
Patrick Kivlehan R 28 RF 327 38 68 12 2 13 44 3 3
Hernan Iribarren L 34 1B 378 36 87 13 2 3 27 2 3
Tyler Stephenson R 21 C 341 34 65 13 1 8 32 1 1
Blake Trahan R 24 SS 555 58 110 19 3 4 37 12 8
Jonathan Reynoso R 25 CF 319 28 65 6 2 3 20 13 7
Chris Okey R 23 C 350 29 56 9 2 6 24 2 1
Eric Jagielo L 26 1B 368 36 63 13 1 10 33 0 0
Josh Van Meter L 23 3B 543 51 112 23 2 9 47 12 4
Nick Longhi R 22 1B 430 40 90 20 1 8 41 0 2
Adam Brett Walker R 26 LF 451 54 82 16 2 27 71 4 2
Arismendy Alcantara B 26 2B 342 37 63 13 6 8 35 8 3
Rosell Herrera B 25 LF 434 43 89 14 3 5 28 16 7
Gavin LaValley R 23 1B 526 57 118 28 1 16 63 0 0
Michael Beltre B 22 RF 456 41 83 14 4 3 28 9 10
Angelo Gumbs R 25 1B 294 28 62 11 2 6 27 3 1
T.J. Friedl L 22 RF 490 49 100 21 5 8 40 11 10
Gabriel Guerrero R 24 CF 528 50 113 22 5 10 46 4 4
Alfredo Rodriguez R 24 SS 536 42 102 10 0 3 25 9 11

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Joey Votto 624 18.3% 15.9% .216 .332 .303 .434 .519 .401 147
Eugenio Suarez 618 10.4% 24.3% .198 .309 .257 .343 .456 .342 108
Zack Cozart 438 8.9% 15.3% .187 .281 .263 .332 .450 .332 102
Tucker Barnhart 406 9.4% 16.5% .123 .302 .262 .333 .384 .306 84
Billy Hamilton 588 7.0% 19.7% .095 .312 .252 .305 .348 .285 71
Nick Senzel 503 8.2% 22.9% .179 .330 .271 .332 .450 .333 102
Adam Duvall 607 6.1% 25.7% .240 .283 .247 .300 .486 .329 99
Scott Schebler 552 6.9% 24.3% .213 .292 .249 .319 .463 .329 100
Jesse Winker 510 11.2% 17.3% .133 .307 .268 .354 .401 .327 99
Scooter Gennett 523 5.7% 21.0% .183 .306 .265 .310 .448 .320 94
Jose Peraza 560 4.1% 13.2% .098 .304 .273 .309 .370 .293 76
Phil Ervin 474 8.4% 25.1% .156 .287 .230 .305 .386 .300 81
Dilson Herrera 413 6.8% 24.0% .165 .292 .242 .298 .407 .302 82
Alex Blandino 485 8.9% 24.1% .151 .285 .230 .308 .381 .300 80
Devin Mesoraco 241 10.0% 23.2% .200 .248 .219 .315 .419 .316 91
Chadwick Tromp 287 5.2% 20.2% .101 .277 .232 .276 .333 .264 57
Shed Long 502 8.0% 26.9% .167 .293 .233 .297 .400 .299 80
Mason Williams 422 6.4% 17.5% .085 .285 .240 .289 .326 .269 60
Stuart Turner 303 6.9% 25.7% .105 .263 .207 .268 .312 .256 51
Brandon Dixon 496 5.4% 33.1% .170 .300 .222 .269 .391 .281 68
Sebastian Elizalde 536 6.0% 18.7% .130 .298 .256 .304 .386 .295 77
D.J. Peterson 506 5.7% 24.7% .163 .275 .231 .279 .394 .288 73
Taylor Trammell 536 8.8% 29.3% .122 .309 .225 .295 .347 .280 68
Tyler Goeddel 462 8.0% 23.6% .118 .293 .231 .304 .349 .286 72
Taylor Sparks 410 6.3% 41.5% .174 .268 .180 .244 .354 .258 53
Darnell Sweeney 514 8.4% 27.4% .148 .304 .232 .299 .381 .293 76
Aristides Aquino 499 5.6% 31.7% .176 .300 .224 .273 .400 .285 71
Jose Siri 538 4.1% 31.0% .159 .288 .219 .255 .378 .268 60
Patrick Kivlehan 327 8.0% 29.1% .186 .289 .230 .297 .416 .304 83
Hernan Iribarren 378 6.3% 16.9% .074 .296 .249 .296 .324 .271 62
Tyler Stephenson 341 8.5% 25.8% .127 .268 .212 .284 .340 .274 63
Blake Trahan 555 7.0% 18.0% .074 .265 .219 .280 .293 .254 50
Jonathan Reynoso 319 4.4% 27.0% .064 .294 .217 .256 .281 .236 38
Chris Okey 350 6.9% 34.6% .097 .256 .175 .240 .272 .227 32
Eric Jagielo 368 9.2% 33.4% .138 .275 .194 .283 .332 .271 61
Josh Van Meter 543 7.7% 22.1% .109 .278 .226 .286 .335 .270 61
Nick Longhi 430 5.3% 24.0% .114 .279 .224 .267 .338 .263 56
Adam Brett Walker 451 6.0% 44.6% .242 .284 .196 .246 .438 .286 71
Arismendy Alcantara 342 5.0% 33.9% .152 .276 .196 .235 .348 .249 47
Rosell Herrera 434 8.1% 23.5% .090 .294 .228 .293 .317 .269 60
Gavin LaValley 526 5.3% 25.9% .160 .298 .242 .285 .402 .292 75
Michael Beltre 456 7.9% 23.9% .075 .266 .201 .270 .276 .245 45
Angelo Gumbs 294 5.1% 25.5% .119 .284 .224 .265 .343 .263 56
T.J. Friedl 490 5.9% 22.0% .123 .277 .224 .285 .348 .277 65
Gabriel Guerrero 528 4.7% 25.9% .124 .290 .227 .263 .351 .262 56
Alfredo Rodriguez 536 3.9% 19.6% .037 .246 .200 .236 .237 .211 22

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Joey Votto 624 8.8 155 3 5.3 Todd Helton
Eugenio Suarez 618 5.6 112 2 3.5 George Scott
Zack Cozart 438 5.5 107 7 3.0 Marco Scutaro
Tucker Barnhart 406 4.8 92 9 2.5 Jim Sundberg
Billy Hamilton 588 4.5 75 12 2.3 Milt Cuyler
Nick Senzel 503 5.5 107 -2 2.1 Adrian Beltre
Adam Duvall 607 5.2 106 3 2.0 Jerald Clark
Scott Schebler 552 5.3 106 -1 1.5 Jessie Reid
Jesse Winker 510 5.1 102 1 1.4 Nick Markakis
Scooter Gennett 523 5.1 100 -6 1.2 Jeff Kent
Jose Peraza 560 4.4 82 3 1.2 Jose Lind
Phil Ervin 474 4.3 84 6 0.9 Armando Rios
Dilson Herrera 413 4.1 87 3 0.9 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Alex Blandino 485 3.9 84 0 0.7 Travis Denker
Devin Mesoraco 241 4.5 95 -6 0.5 Kelly Stinnett
Chadwick Tromp 287 3.2 63 1 0.2 Jason Hill
Shed Long 502 4.2 85 -8 0.0 Bobby Rose
Mason Williams 422 3.5 65 3 0.0 Chris Frey
Stuart Turner 303 2.8 55 1 -0.1 Fausto Tejero
Brandon Dixon 496 3.7 74 -3 -0.1 Jose Fernandez
Sebastian Elizalde 536 4.2 84 -1 -0.1 Victor Mata
D.J. Peterson 506 3.9 78 -6 -0.2 Eric Duncan
Taylor Trammell 536 3.6 72 3 -0.3 Herm Winningham
Tyler Goeddel 462 3.8 75 0 -0.3 Charles Thomas
Taylor Sparks 410 2.8 58 4 -0.3 Duane Thielen
Darnell Sweeney 514 3.8 81 -8 -0.4 Joaquin Contreras
Aristides Aquino 499 3.8 78 1 -0.4 Fletcher Bates
Jose Siri 538 3.4 67 0 -0.4 David Green
Patrick Kivlehan 327 4.2 89 -7 -0.6 Jeff Deardorff
Hernan Iribarren 378 3.3 67 5 -0.7 Larry Biittner
Tyler Stephenson 341 3.3 67 -11 -0.7 Nelson Santovenia
Blake Trahan 555 2.7 54 1 -0.7 Jhonny Carvajal
Jonathan Reynoso 319 2.4 44 3 -0.8 Michael Harris
Chris Okey 350 2.1 37 1 -0.9 Jose Molina
Eric Jagielo 368 3.2 65 1 -0.9 John Fantauzzi
Josh Van Meter 543 3.4 66 -7 -1.0 Bobby Morris
Nick Longhi 430 3.0 61 5 -1.1 Jody Roughton
Adam Brett Walker 451 3.6 78 -7 -1.1 Mike Meggers
Arismendy Alcantara 342 2.8 54 -4 -1.2 Ty Nichols
Rosell Herrera 434 3.3 64 -4 -1.3 Dave Brundage
Gavin LaValley 526 4.1 82 -8 -1.3 Willis Otanez
Michael Beltre 456 2.2 47 6 -1.5 George Wright
Angelo Gumbs 294 3.2 62 -7 -1.7 Layne Lambert
T.J. Friedl 490 3.2 69 -8 -1.8 Rich Brown
Gabriel Guerrero 528 3.1 63 -12 -1.9 Aaron Peel
Alfredo Rodriguez 536 1.6 28 8 -2.1 David Milstien

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Luis Castillo R 25 29 28 156.3 146 41 20 147 71 66
Sal Romano R 24 27 27 143.3 116 49 18 151 75 70
Tyler Mahle R 23 28 28 151.0 133 45 26 159 80 75
Raisel Iglesias R 28 61 0 69.3 70 24 6 62 27 25
Anthony DeSclafani R 28 19 19 109.3 75 29 16 121 59 55
Brandon Finnegan L 25 24 24 122.7 117 53 22 114 67 63
Jose R. Lopez R 24 26 24 131.0 111 56 20 137 75 70
Jackson Stephens R 24 31 28 152.0 119 59 25 163 90 84
Jimmy Herget R 24 54 0 61.3 68 27 8 57 30 28
Scott Feldman R 35 19 19 105.3 63 32 18 120 63 59
Rafael De Paula R 27 39 0 55.0 60 25 7 50 27 25
Kevin Shackelford R 29 55 0 66.3 66 30 7 65 33 31
Austin Brice R 26 49 0 62.7 53 23 7 61 31 29
Joe Mantiply L 27 42 4 67.0 47 23 8 72 36 34
Michael Lorenzen R 26 67 0 77.7 62 30 10 79 41 38
Wandy Peralta L 26 70 0 67.7 54 31 7 67 35 33
Zack Weiss R 26 41 0 47.7 51 19 8 46 25 23
Amir Garrett L 26 28 26 128.3 108 55 24 138 79 74
Drew Storen R 30 57 0 51.7 36 18 6 55 27 25
Lisalverto Bonilla R 28 29 12 94.7 78 44 15 100 58 54
Cody Reed L 25 30 22 120.7 102 66 20 130 76 71
Alex Powers R 26 37 1 60.7 59 30 9 60 34 32
Evan Mitchell R 26 37 1 51.3 28 23 5 57 29 27
Alejandro Chacin R 25 52 0 72.7 63 36 10 74 41 38
Homer Bailey R 32 21 21 108.7 63 40 15 131 70 65
Hernan Iribarren R 34 8 0 11.0 1 4 1 14 6 6
Tanner Rainey R 25 56 0 55.7 62 37 8 50 32 30
Ryan Hendrix R 23 45 0 54.7 62 38 8 51 32 30
Kevin Quackenbush R 29 54 0 59.0 41 25 8 63 35 33
Nefi Ogando R 29 50 0 48.3 33 26 6 51 30 28
Austin Ross R 29 26 16 96.7 55 36 17 114 64 60
Barrett Astin R 26 36 5 62.0 38 35 9 70 41 38
Nick Travieso R 24 16 16 73.7 47 33 14 88 50 47
Tim Adleman R 30 28 19 113.3 88 41 27 125 76 71
Keury Mella R 24 27 25 125.0 85 57 23 145 85 79
Carlos A. Gonzalez R 28 37 0 42.3 30 24 7 47 29 27
Rookie Davis R 25 23 22 107.0 80 39 26 130 75 70
Rob W00t3n R 32 28 4 45.3 31 12 12 56 33 31
Vin Mazzaro R 31 32 2 47.7 19 26 7 58 34 32
Ariel Hernandez R 26 55 0 62.7 71 67 8 54 43 40
Asher Wojciechowski R 29 27 15 88.7 67 35 21 105 65 61
Robert Stephenson R 25 30 21 123.3 118 75 30 130 91 85
Bronson Arroyo R 41 13 13 69.0 31 18 21 93 57 53
Geoff Broussard R 27 47 0 55.3 35 24 14 70 45 42
Ismael Guillon L 26 38 6 69.7 76 54 19 74 57 53

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Luis Castillo 156.3 657 22.2% 6.2% .287 3.80 3.87 87 87
Sal Romano 143.3 630 18.4% 7.8% .302 4.40 4.30 101 97
Tyler Mahle 151.0 657 20.2% 6.8% .300 4.47 4.71 102 106
Raisel Iglesias 69.3 294 23.8% 8.2% .293 3.25 3.39 74 76
Anthony DeSclafani 109.3 478 15.7% 6.1% .297 4.53 4.59 104 104
Brandon Finnegan 122.7 535 21.9% 9.9% .271 4.62 4.93 106 111
Jose R. Lopez 131.0 586 18.9% 9.6% .299 4.81 4.91 110 111
Jackson Stephens 152.0 678 17.6% 8.7% .296 4.97 5.05 114 114
Jimmy Herget 61.3 268 25.4% 10.1% .302 4.11 4.01 94 90
Scott Feldman 105.3 468 13.5% 6.8% .291 5.04 5.15 115 116
Rafael De Paula 55.0 240 25.0% 10.4% .297 4.09 4.16 94 94
Kevin Shackelford 66.3 294 22.4% 10.2% .310 4.21 3.99 96 90
Austin Brice 62.7 272 19.5% 8.5% .292 4.16 4.12 95 93
Joe Mantiply 67.0 296 15.9% 7.8% .299 4.57 4.47 105 101
Michael Lorenzen 77.7 342 18.1% 8.8% .295 4.40 4.51 101 102
Wandy Peralta 67.7 301 17.9% 10.3% .291 4.39 4.37 100 99
Zack Weiss 47.7 208 24.5% 9.1% .299 4.34 4.58 99 103
Amir Garrett 128.3 578 18.7% 9.5% .297 5.19 5.31 119 120
Drew Storen 51.7 228 15.8% 7.9% .304 4.35 4.55 100 103
Lisalverto Bonilla 94.7 428 18.2% 10.3% .297 5.13 5.09 118 115
Cody Reed 120.7 558 18.3% 11.8% .302 5.30 5.36 121 121
Alex Powers 60.7 272 21.7% 11.0% .298 4.75 4.72 109 107
Evan Mitchell 51.3 234 12.0% 9.8% .297 4.73 4.74 108 107
Alejandro Chacin 72.7 328 19.2% 11.0% .298 4.71 4.82 108 109
Homer Bailey 108.7 497 12.7% 8.0% .312 5.38 5.03 123 114
Hernan Iribarren 11.0 51 2.0% 7.8% .295 4.91 5.52 112 125
Tanner Rainey 55.7 254 24.4% 14.6% .292 4.85 4.95 111 112
Ryan Hendrix 54.7 253 24.5% 15.0% .305 4.94 4.99 113 113
Kevin Quackenbush 59.0 265 15.5% 9.4% .291 5.03 4.80 115 108
Nefi Ogando 48.3 222 14.9% 11.7% .288 5.21 5.08 119 115
Austin Ross 96.7 440 12.5% 8.2% .297 5.59 5.55 128 125
Barrett Astin 62.0 291 13.1% 12.0% .299 5.52 5.71 126 129
Nick Travieso 73.7 342 13.7% 9.6% .303 5.74 5.82 131 131
Tim Adleman 113.3 506 17.4% 8.1% .286 5.64 5.95 129 134
Keury Mella 125.0 577 14.7% 9.9% .301 5.69 5.70 130 129
Carlos A. Gonzalez 42.3 198 15.2% 12.1% .299 5.74 5.73 131 129
Rookie Davis 107.0 490 16.3% 8.0% .307 5.89 6.08 135 137
Rob W00t3n 45.3 204 15.2% 5.9% .299 6.15 6.09 141 137
Vin Mazzaro 47.7 227 8.4% 11.5% .295 6.04 5.97 138 135
Ariel Hernandez 62.7 309 23.0% 21.7% .289 5.74 5.85 132 132
Asher Wojciechowski 88.7 406 16.5% 8.6% .302 6.19 6.04 142 136
Robert Stephenson 123.3 575 20.5% 13.0% .290 6.20 6.35 142 143
Bronson Arroyo 69.0 318 9.7% 5.7% .294 6.91 7.09 158 160
Geoff Broussard 55.3 260 13.5% 9.2% .304 6.83 6.65 156 150
Ismael Guillon 69.7 337 22.6% 16.0% .299 6.85 7.02 157 158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Luis Castillo 156.3 8.41 2.36 1.15 112 2.9 Don Drysdale
Sal Romano 143.3 7.28 3.08 1.13 97 1.7 Early Wynn
Tyler Mahle 151.0 7.93 2.68 1.55 95 1.6 Scott Baker
Raisel Iglesias 69.3 9.09 3.12 0.78 131 1.5 Roger McDowell
Anthony DeSclafani 109.3 6.17 2.39 1.32 94 1.2 Bob Moose
Brandon Finnegan 122.7 8.58 3.89 1.61 92 1.1 Tippy Martinez
Jose R. Lopez 131.0 7.63 3.85 1.37 88 0.9 Robert Averette
Jackson Stephens 152.0 7.05 3.49 1.48 85 0.7 Kyle Hartshorn
Jimmy Herget 61.3 9.98 3.96 1.17 103 0.5 Blaine Neal
Scott Feldman 105.3 5.38 2.73 1.54 85 0.5 Bill Lee
Rafael De Paula 55.0 9.82 4.09 1.15 104 0.5 Mike Schultz
Kevin Shackelford 66.3 8.95 4.07 0.95 101 0.5 Sean Green
Austin Brice 62.7 7.61 3.30 1.01 102 0.5 Turk Farrell
Joe Mantiply 67.0 6.31 3.09 1.07 94 0.4 Bud Daley
Michael Lorenzen 77.7 7.18 3.48 1.16 96 0.4 Turk Farrell
Wandy Peralta 67.7 7.18 4.12 0.93 97 0.3 Jim Roland
Zack Weiss 47.7 9.63 3.59 1.51 99 0.3 Francisco Cordero
Amir Garrett 128.3 7.57 3.86 1.68 82 0.3 Randy Flores
Drew Storen 51.7 6.27 3.14 1.05 98 0.3 Frank Linzy
Lisalverto Bonilla 94.7 7.42 4.18 1.43 84 0.2 Greg Booker
Cody Reed 120.7 7.61 4.92 1.49 81 0.2 Dean Stone
Alex Powers 60.7 8.75 4.45 1.34 89 0.1 Mike Gardner
Evan Mitchell 51.3 4.91 4.03 0.88 90 0.1 Horacio Pina
Alejandro Chacin 72.7 7.80 4.46 1.24 90 0.1 Joe Hudson
Homer Bailey 108.7 5.22 3.31 1.24 79 0.0 Charlie Robertson
Hernan Iribarren 11.0 0.82 3.27 0.82 87 0.0 Jack Russell
Tanner Rainey 55.7 10.02 5.98 1.29 88 0.0 Brad Voyles
Ryan Hendrix 54.7 10.21 6.26 1.32 86 -0.1 Anthony Chavez
Kevin Quackenbush 59.0 6.25 3.81 1.22 84 -0.2 Scott Munter
Nefi Ogando 48.3 6.14 4.84 1.12 81 -0.3 Bruce Dal Canton
Austin Ross 96.7 5.12 3.35 1.58 76 -0.3 Bill Champion
Barrett Astin 62.0 5.52 5.08 1.31 77 -0.3 Brett Merriman
Nick Travieso 73.7 5.74 4.03 1.71 74 -0.3 Matt Achilles
Tim Adleman 113.3 6.99 3.26 2.14 75 -0.4 Jerry Reed
Keury Mella 125.0 6.12 4.10 1.66 75 -0.4 Jake Dittler
Carlos A. Gonzalez 42.3 6.38 5.10 1.49 74 -0.5 Ed Sprague
Rookie Davis 107.0 6.73 3.28 2.19 73 -0.5 Rich Yett
Rob W00t3n 45.3 6.15 2.38 2.38 69 -0.6 Eric Moody
Vin Mazzaro 47.7 3.59 4.91 1.32 70 -0.6 Jerry Johnson
Ariel Hernandez 62.7 10.20 9.62 1.15 74 -0.7 Terry Bross
Asher Wojciechowski 88.7 6.80 3.55 2.13 70 -0.8 Jason Roach
Robert Stephenson 123.3 8.61 5.47 2.19 68 -1.2 Dennis Burtt
Bronson Arroyo 69.0 4.04 2.35 2.74 61 -1.2 Mike Morgan
Geoff Broussard 55.3 5.69 3.90 2.28 62 -1.4 Steven Rowe
Ismael Guillon 69.7 9.82 6.98 2.45 62 -1.5 Paulino Reynoso

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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