2018 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Among those clubs one might reasonably designate as a “super team” — which, for sake of ease, we might simply define as any team projected for 90 or more wins at the moment — Cleveland possesses the lowest current payroll.

Regard:

Projected Wins and Payroll for “Super Teams”
Team Payroll Pay Rank Wins Wins Rank
Astros $130.5 13 98 1
Dodgers $181.1 3 94 2
Indians $122.8 15 93 3
Cubs $142.1 8 92 4
Red Sox $191.1 1 91 t5
Nationals $170.4 5 91 t5
Yankees $157.9 7 91 t5
Payroll data care of spotrac.

The constraints both of the market and ownership’s willingness to spend might ultimately render it difficult for Cleveland to sustain their current run of excellence. For 2018, however, the Indians are well positioned not only to compete but contend.

Francisco Lindor (696 PA, 5.8 zWAR), of course, remains the centerpiece of the club’s field-playing corps. He’s forecast not only for a batting line nearly 20% better than league average but also +10 fielding runs at shortstop. Jose Ramirez (643, 4.7) is nearly Lindor’s equal, supplying the same type of value, if not necessarily the same degree of it.

After that pair, the roster is composed largely of players in the average range. ZiPS calls for Edwin Encarnacion (577, 2.9) to continue hitting sufficiently well to compensate for his defensive shortcomings. The greatest weakness, meanwhile, appears to be right field, where even a platoon of Lonnie Chisenhall (421, 0.3) and Brandon Guyer (294, 1.0) fails to eclipse the one-win mark by much.

Pitchers
In terms of FIP-based WAR, which is the sort typically displayed at this site for pitchers, Cleveland’s staff outperformed last year’s second-best team (the Yankees) by an amount roughly equivalent to the one by which the Yankees outperformed the 10th-ranked Cardinals. All the relevant parties return to the 2018 edition of the club.

Anchoring the rotation, naturally, is Cy Young-winner Corey Kluber (199.2 IP, 5.5 zWAR), projected for what would represent his fifth consecutive five-win season. After Kluber is a collection of above-average arms in Trevor Bauer (177.1, 2.7), Carlos Carrasco (183.2, 4.2), and Danny Salazar (137.2, 2.5). Depth becomes an issue after that foursome, however. Neither of the next-best options, eitherMike Clevinger(138.0, 1.3) or Josh Tomlin (127.1, 1.0), profile as average starters.

The bullpen remains an oddity in the league, featuring a setup man [superior] not only to his own team’s closer but also to basically any other reliever anywhere. Of course, to say that Cody Allen (65.0, 65, 1.7) fails to rival Andrew Miller (60.2, 46 ERA-, 2.3 zWAR) represents a case of whatever is the opposite of damning with faint praise. Zach McAllister (59.2, 77, 0.9) and Dan Otero (60.2, 73, 0.9), meanwhile, would probably be candidates for the highest-leverage innings on a different club.

Bench/Prospects
Third baseman Yandy Diaz (573 PA, 1.7 zWAR) features one of the strangest/most frustrating combinations of exit velocity and launch angle among major-league hitters, ranking eighth of 540 hitters by the former measure in 2017 and 509th of 540 by the latter. ZiPS calls for Diaz to exhibit little power in 2018 but sufficient patience and contact ability to record something close to a league-average batting line. He receives the top projection of any player omitted from the depth-chart image below.

Despite strong minor-league numbers, right-hander Shane Bieber (167.0 IP, 1.8 zWAR) hasn’t typically ascended to the very top of prospect lists for the Indians — a product, likely, of modest stuff. Nevertheless, he receives the best WAR figure here among rookie-eligible Cleveland pitchers — better, also, than those merited either be Clevinger or Tomlin.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelands, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Francisco Lindor B 24 SS 696 94 181 37 5 24 86 17 4
Jose Ramirez R 25 3B 643 94 174 44 5 20 78 23 8
Edwin Encarnacion R 35 DH 577 79 129 24 1 31 99 2 0
Michael Brantley L 31 LF 451 56 121 28 1 11 66 12 1
Jason Kipnis L 31 2B 538 67 126 31 3 14 55 11 4
Yonder Alonso L 31 1B 481 63 110 22 0 24 68 3 0
Yandy Diaz R 26 3B 573 66 136 17 2 6 40 4 3
Bradley Zimmer L 25 CF 508 60 106 21 3 15 56 25 7
Eric Stamets R 26 SS 412 43 82 17 2 10 38 8 1
Francisco Mejia B 22 C 438 52 103 22 2 13 54 5 2
Yan Gomes R 30 C 374 40 78 16 1 14 54 0 0
Brandon Guyer R 32 RF 294 36 65 15 1 6 30 4 1
Roberto Perez R 29 C 239 24 43 10 1 7 30 0 1
Melvin Upton Jr. R 33 CF 403 46 83 14 3 12 41 13 5
Tyler Naquin L 27 CF 407 46 96 16 4 11 40 6 4
Rob Refsnyder R 27 2B 427 48 97 22 3 8 38 8 3
Yu-Cheng Chang R 22 SS 516 63 100 24 5 15 66 8 3
Austin Jackson R 31 CF 427 50 102 23 4 6 40 8 4
Giovanny Urshela R 26 3B 494 51 119 22 2 8 49 0 1
Eric Haase R 25 C 373 43 68 15 3 15 50 2 3
Lonnie Chisenhall L 29 RF 421 45 96 22 2 11 57 4 1
Erik Gonzalez R 26 2B 446 47 101 16 3 11 45 9 6
Bobby Bradley L 22 1B 550 66 111 23 2 26 78 3 3
Abraham Almonte B 29 RF 376 45 83 19 4 7 35 8 3
Adam Moore R 34 C 292 26 56 9 1 6 25 0 0
Greg Allen B 25 CF 485 55 101 18 2 5 36 25 7
Willi Castro B 21 SS 554 60 129 21 4 14 54 15 12
Dorssys Paulino R 23 LF 369 37 76 13 1 8 32 5 4
Mark Mathias R 23 2B 398 40 76 20 2 5 32 7 1
Josh Wilson R 37 2B 258 24 50 11 0 5 22 2 2
Gavin Collins R 22 3B 341 34 70 16 2 8 34 1 1
Drew Maggi R 29 3B 365 35 72 13 0 4 25 11 7
Dan Robertson R 32 LF 326 33 80 13 2 3 26 9 5
David Lough L 32 LF 179 18 36 6 2 2 12 2 4
Richie Shaffer R 27 LF 523 59 93 22 1 22 63 3 1
Joe Sever R 27 3B 465 43 96 16 1 9 38 2 1
Mike Papi L 25 RF 501 54 92 19 1 12 45 4 3
Brandon Barnes R 32 CF 408 39 82 18 2 7 31 9 5
Jordan Smith L 27 CF 422 38 79 16 2 5 32 8 7
Michael Martinez B 35 2B 297 28 63 12 2 2 20 3 4
Tyler Krieger B 24 2B 512 50 101 22 3 7 40 11 8
Nellie Rodriguez R 24 1B 497 51 77 17 1 21 57 0 0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Francisco Lindor 696 8.2% 13.2% .192 .306 .292 .351 .484 .352 118
Jose Ramirez 643 7.8% 10.6% .196 .309 .299 .355 .495 .358 122
Edwin Encarnacion 577 13.5% 19.8% .243 .280 .263 .366 .506 .367 128
Michael Brantley 451 8.4% 11.3% .155 .316 .298 .359 .453 .346 114
Jason Kipnis 538 8.2% 19.7% .164 .306 .262 .327 .426 .323 98
Yonder Alonso 481 12.1% 23.7% .224 .304 .262 .353 .486 .355 120
Yandy Diaz 573 11.9% 18.3% .078 .333 .273 .361 .351 .318 94
Bradley Zimmer 508 8.7% 33.9% .159 .340 .234 .312 .393 .305 86
Eric Stamets 412 5.8% 27.2% .137 .282 .220 .275 .357 .273 64
Francisco Mejia 438 4.8% 18.3% .159 .281 .252 .291 .411 .297 80
Yan Gomes 374 5.9% 25.4% .175 .269 .227 .281 .402 .290 76
Brandon Guyer 294 6.5% 19.0% .138 .306 .256 .349 .394 .328 101
Roberto Perez 239 11.3% 26.8% .162 .267 .211 .303 .373 .295 79
Melvin Upton Jr. 403 7.9% 30.8% .153 .305 .226 .289 .379 .286 73
Tyler Naquin 407 7.6% 27.8% .155 .343 .261 .319 .416 .313 91
Rob Refsnyder 427 8.2% 19.2% .135 .299 .252 .319 .387 .305 85
Yu-Cheng Chang 516 7.2% 32.2% .170 .293 .215 .278 .384 .284 71
Austin Jackson 427 7.7% 21.5% .127 .328 .264 .322 .390 .308 88
Giovanny Urshela 494 4.5% 15.6% .108 .291 .256 .293 .363 .283 71
Eric Haase 373 7.5% 40.5% .194 .301 .199 .265 .393 .282 70
Lonnie Chisenhall 421 6.9% 20.0% .155 .293 .252 .309 .407 .305 85
Erik Gonzalez 446 3.6% 28.3% .130 .314 .239 .269 .370 .273 63
Bobby Bradley 550 8.4% 32.5% .212 .289 .224 .293 .436 .309 88
Abraham Almonte 376 8.5% 21.8% .142 .303 .246 .311 .388 .300 82
Adam Moore 292 6.2% 34.2% .107 .303 .207 .261 .315 .253 50
Greg Allen 485 5.8% 20.4% .085 .289 .233 .302 .319 .276 66
Willi Castro 554 3.6% 22.6% .135 .295 .246 .277 .381 .280 69
Dorssys Paulino 369 8.4% 26.8% .118 .301 .230 .300 .347 .284 72
Mark Mathias 398 6.8% 27.1% .109 .285 .212 .280 .320 .265 58
Josh Wilson 258 4.3% 27.1% .111 .278 .213 .267 .323 .259 54
Gavin Collins 341 6.5% 27.6% .141 .290 .224 .279 .364 .278 67
Drew Maggi 365 7.7% 23.6% .076 .286 .220 .293 .297 .264 57
Dan Robertson 326 6.7% 14.7% .087 .308 .267 .318 .353 .293 78
David Lough 179 5.6% 20.1% .098 .268 .220 .271 .317 .258 53
Richie Shaffer 523 9.9% 38.4% .195 .295 .202 .289 .397 .296 79
Joe Sever 465 4.7% 26.7% .104 .286 .221 .265 .325 .257 53
Mike Papi 501 11.0% 27.3% .130 .274 .210 .301 .340 .282 70
Brandon Barnes 408 5.4% 30.1% .114 .300 .217 .264 .331 .257 52
Jordan Smith 422 6.6% 28.2% .090 .278 .204 .260 .294 .243 43
Michael Martinez 297 5.4% 20.9% .080 .285 .228 .269 .308 .251 48
Tyler Krieger 512 6.8% 28.9% .106 .300 .218 .279 .324 .265 58
Nellie Rodriguez 497 9.9% 46.9% .186 .293 .175 .258 .361 .267 60

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Francisco Lindor 696 6.6 119 10 5.8 Troy Tulowitzki
Jose Ramirez 643 6.9 123 6 4.7 Jeff Cirillo
Edwin Encarnacion 577 6.8 129 0 2.9 Andre Thornton
Michael Brantley 451 6.5 114 0 1.9 Wally Moses
Jason Kipnis 538 5.2 98 -2 1.7 Pep Young
Yonder Alonso 481 6.4 120 -3 1.7 J.T. Snow
Yandy Diaz 573 4.7 91 0 1.7 Kevin Seitzer
Bradley Zimmer 508 4.6 86 4 1.6 Jim Edmonds
Eric Stamets 412 3.6 66 11 1.3 Andujar Cedeno
Francisco Mejia 438 4.3 84 -1 1.2 Richard Suomi
Yan Gomes 374 3.9 79 3 1.1 Nelson Santovenia
Brandon Guyer 294 5.1 98 2 1.0 Barry Bonnell
Roberto Perez 239 3.8 79 2 0.8 Danny Ardoin
Melvin Upton Jr. 403 3.9 76 5 0.7 Bo Porter
Tyler Naquin 407 4.8 93 -4 0.7 Cesar Geronimo
Rob Refsnyder 427 4.5 87 -2 0.7 Vance Law
Yu-Cheng Chang 516 3.7 74 1 0.7 Ian Desmond
Austin Jackson 427 4.6 88 -4 0.6 Gino Cimoli
Giovanny Urshela 494 3.8 73 5 0.6 Wilton Veras
Eric Haase 373 3.4 72 0 0.5 Jayhawk Owens
Lonnie Chisenhall 421 4.6 88 0 0.3 Mike Brown
Erik Gonzalez 446 3.5 68 6 0.3 Fred Manrique
Bobby Bradley 550 4.4 90 1 0.2 Brad Pounders
Abraham Almonte 376 4.4 84 0 0.1 Jermaine Allensworth
Adam Moore 292 2.8 52 2 -0.1 George Mitterwald
Greg Allen 485 3.7 66 -2 -0.1 Pat Hallmark
Willi Castro 554 3.6 73 -5 -0.2 Andre Wood
Dorssys Paulino 369 3.6 72 1 -0.3 Angel Morris
Mark Mathias 398 3.2 59 1 -0.3 Mike Neal
Josh Wilson 258 2.9 56 2 -0.3 Jeff Branson
Gavin Collins 341 3.5 69 -3 -0.4 Ramon Henderson
Drew Maggi 365 2.9 58 1 -0.4 Andy Beinbrink
Dan Robertson 326 4.1 79 -4 -0.5 Gene Clines
David Lough 179 2.6 56 2 -0.5 Marc Sagmoen
Richie Shaffer 523 3.9 80 -7 -0.7 Billy Martin
Joe Sever 465 3.0 56 0 -0.8 Tommy Whiteman
Mike Papi 501 3.4 70 -2 -0.9 Todd Sears
Brandon Barnes 408 3.0 57 -2 -0.9 Damon Buford
Jordan Smith 422 2.4 47 4 -1.0 Kevin Wiggins
Michael Martinez 297 2.7 53 -2 -1.0 Edgar Caceres
Tyler Krieger 512 3.0 60 -4 -1.1 Rich Casarotti
Nellie Rodriguez 497 3.1 62 -1 -1.6 Dan Trumble

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Corey Kluber R 32 29 29 199.7 224 44 17 165 66 62
Carlos Carrasco R 31 30 30 183.7 201 40 23 159 70 65
Trevor Bauer R 27 32 30 177.3 185 64 21 164 82 77
Danny Salazar R 28 27 25 137.7 172 53 17 115 59 55
Andrew Miller L 33 58 0 60.7 91 18 6 43 15 14
Shane Bieber R 23 28 28 167.0 102 28 22 186 86 80
Cody Allen R 29 67 0 65.0 81 23 6 50 22 21
Michael Clevinger R 27 31 26 138.0 149 64 21 129 73 68
Josh Tomlin R 33 24 23 127.3 96 15 24 139 70 65
Zach McAllister R 30 51 0 59.7 65 21 6 54 22 21
Dan Otero R 33 52 0 60.3 40 9 5 61 24 22
Cody Anderson R 27 22 18 99.0 70 28 15 106 54 50
Diego Moreno R 30 29 2 44.7 40 14 5 44 20 19
Nick Goody R 26 55 0 56.3 78 21 10 47 26 24
Ryan Merritt L 26 25 23 136.7 84 27 24 160 80 75
Tyler Olson L 28 58 0 55.0 55 19 7 52 26 24
Leonel Campos R 30 44 1 51.7 60 29 6 44 25 23
Jeff Johnson R 28 50 0 51.7 53 33 4 46 25 23
Tim Cooney L 27 18 18 100.0 73 29 18 112 58 54
Louis Head R 28 49 0 58.0 55 31 5 55 29 27
Shawn Morimando L 25 26 25 142.7 109 65 22 158 87 81
Jeff Beliveau L 31 44 1 55.3 64 32 7 49 29 27
Lisalverto Bonilla R 28 30 11 92.0 83 41 14 96 54 50
Rob Kaminsky L 23 22 22 109.0 64 51 13 121 65 61
Evan Marshall R 28 37 1 44.0 35 17 5 47 22 21
Josh Martin R 28 38 0 49.7 46 18 7 50 26 24
Alexi Ogando R 34 43 0 45.0 35 22 5 46 24 22
Cole Sulser R 28 38 6 73.3 68 31 12 76 43 40
Julian Merryweather R 26 23 22 114.0 91 35 22 130 71 66
Craig Breslow L 37 42 0 43.0 31 17 6 48 25 23
Joe Colon R 28 28 6 55.7 47 32 8 58 34 32
Adam Plutko R 26 25 23 130.0 96 46 25 151 83 78
Neil Ramirez R 29 42 0 46.7 56 26 9 44 28 26
Travis Banwart R 32 20 17 85.3 56 32 16 99 56 52
Matt Whitehouse L 27 29 16 98.7 68 39 18 114 64 60
Cameron Hill R 24 45 0 62.7 45 20 12 71 40 37
Chris Narveson L 36 19 15 84.7 57 38 17 97 58 54
Robbie Aviles R 26 40 1 59.3 30 22 9 71 39 36
Jarrett Grube R 36 22 21 108.7 78 38 25 128 76 71
Michael Peoples R 26 21 20 105.3 54 51 20 132 78 73
D.J. Brown R 27 29 11 93.0 68 34 25 116 73 68
Matt Esparza R 23 25 25 122.3 86 49 31 148 93 87
Shao-Ching Chiang R 24 25 25 138.7 67 38 33 179 105 98

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Corey Kluber 199.7 808 27.7% 5.4% .287 2.79 2.76 62 63
Carlos Carrasco 183.7 750 26.8% 5.3% .283 3.19 3.32 71 76
Trevor Bauer 177.3 760 24.3% 8.4% .296 3.91 3.79 87 87
Danny Salazar 137.7 581 29.6% 9.1% .293 3.60 3.48 80 79
Andrew Miller 60.7 243 37.4% 7.4% .298 2.08 2.53 46 58
Shane Bieber 167.0 715 14.3% 3.9% .297 4.31 4.30 96 98
Cody Allen 65.0 268 30.2% 8.6% .280 2.91 2.93 65 67
Michael Clevinger 138.0 607 24.5% 10.5% .294 4.43 4.48 99 102
Josh Tomlin 127.3 536 17.9% 2.8% .289 4.59 4.50 103 103
Zach McAllister 59.7 254 25.6% 8.3% .300 3.17 3.39 71 77
Dan Otero 60.3 251 15.9% 3.6% .286 3.28 3.26 73 74
Cody Anderson 99.0 431 16.2% 6.5% .289 4.55 4.62 102 105
Diego Moreno 44.7 192 20.8% 7.3% .300 3.83 3.96 86 90
Nick Goody 56.3 237 32.9% 8.9% .296 3.83 3.87 86 88
Ryan Merritt 136.7 597 14.1% 4.5% .298 4.94 4.94 110 113
Tyler Olson 55.0 236 23.3% 8.1% .296 3.93 3.90 88 89
Leonel Campos 51.7 228 26.3% 12.7% .292 4.01 4.14 89 94
Jeff Johnson 51.7 234 22.6% 14.1% .298 4.01 4.09 89 93
Tim Cooney 100.0 441 16.6% 6.6% .297 4.86 5.00 109 114
Louis Head 58.0 260 21.2% 11.9% .301 4.19 4.09 94 93
Shawn Morimando 142.7 651 16.7% 10.0% .304 5.11 5.15 114 117
Jeff Beliveau 55.3 247 25.9% 13.0% .298 4.39 4.28 98 98
Lisalverto Bonilla 92.0 413 20.1% 9.9% .304 4.89 4.80 109 109
Rob Kaminsky 109.0 499 12.8% 10.2% .296 5.04 5.10 112 116
Evan Marshall 44.0 196 17.9% 8.7% .307 4.30 4.20 96 96
Josh Martin 49.7 217 21.2% 8.3% .301 4.35 4.35 97 99
Alexi Ogando 45.0 203 17.2% 10.8% .295 4.40 4.58 98 104
Cole Sulser 73.3 327 20.8% 9.5% .302 4.91 4.78 110 109
Julian Merryweather 114.0 507 17.9% 6.9% .307 5.21 5.18 116 118
Craig Breslow 43.0 194 16.0% 8.8% .302 4.81 4.65 108 106
Joe Colon 55.7 257 18.3% 12.5% .299 5.17 5.17 116 118
Adam Plutko 130.0 587 16.4% 7.8% .305 5.40 5.38 121 123
Neil Ramirez 46.7 210 26.7% 12.4% .297 5.01 4.94 112 113
Travis Banwart 85.3 387 14.5% 8.3% .299 5.48 5.55 122 126
Matt Whitehouse 98.7 449 15.1% 8.7% .302 5.47 5.52 122 126
Cameron Hill 62.7 279 16.1% 7.2% .298 5.31 5.36 119 122
Chris Narveson 84.7 389 14.7% 9.8% .293 5.74 5.91 128 135
Robbie Aviles 59.3 271 11.1% 8.1% .301 5.46 5.43 122 124
Jarrett Grube 108.7 492 15.9% 7.7% .299 5.88 5.90 131 135
Michael Peoples 105.3 499 10.8% 10.2% .304 6.24 6.22 139 142
D.J. Brown 93.0 429 15.9% 7.9% .307 6.58 6.48 147 148
Matt Esparza 122.3 564 15.2% 8.7% .300 6.40 6.44 143 147
Shao-Ching Chiang 138.7 633 10.6% 6.0% .300 6.36 6.28 142 143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Corey Kluber 199.7 10.10 1.98 0.77 150 5.5 Greg Maddux
Carlos Carrasco 183.7 9.85 1.96 1.13 132 4.2 Doug Drabek
Trevor Bauer 177.3 9.39 3.25 1.07 107 2.7 Matt Clement
Danny Salazar 137.7 11.24 3.46 1.11 117 2.5 Wade Miller
Andrew Miller 60.7 13.50 2.67 0.89 202 2.3 John Hiller
Shane Bieber 167.0 5.50 1.51 1.19 97 1.8 Rick Wise
Cody Allen 65.0 11.22 3.18 0.83 144 1.7 Greg Harris
Michael Clevinger 138.0 9.72 4.17 1.37 95 1.3 Charlie Puleo
Josh Tomlin 127.3 6.79 1.06 1.70 91 1.0 Dick Bosman
Zach McAllister 59.7 9.80 3.17 0.91 133 0.9 Mike Henneman
Dan Otero 60.3 5.97 1.34 0.75 128 0.9 Dick Coffman
Cody Anderson 99.0 6.36 2.55 1.36 92 0.8 Chuck Porter
Diego Moreno 44.7 8.06 2.82 1.01 110 0.6 Jose Silva
Nick Goody 56.3 12.46 3.36 1.60 110 0.5 Fernando Cabrera
Ryan Merritt 136.7 5.53 1.78 1.58 85 0.5 Blaine Beatty
Tyler Olson 55.0 9.00 3.11 1.15 107 0.5 Chris Marchok
Leonel Campos 51.7 10.45 5.05 1.05 105 0.5 Tyler Yates
Jeff Johnson 51.7 9.23 5.75 0.70 105 0.4 George Smith
Tim Cooney 100.0 6.57 2.61 1.62 85 0.4 Blaine Beatty
Louis Head 58.0 8.53 4.81 0.78 100 0.4 Gabriel Dehoyos
Shawn Morimando 142.7 6.88 4.10 1.39 82 0.3 Greg Kubes
Jeff Beliveau 55.3 10.41 5.20 1.14 96 0.3 Kevin Tolar
Lisalverto Bonilla 92.0 8.12 4.01 1.37 86 0.3 Greg Booker
Rob Kaminsky 109.0 5.28 4.21 1.07 82 0.2 Wade Blasingame
Evan Marshall 44.0 7.16 3.48 1.02 96 0.2 Mike Gardner
Josh Martin 49.7 8.34 3.26 1.27 97 0.2 Rick Steed
Alexi Ogando 45.0 7.00 4.40 1.00 95 0.2 Ted Abernathy
Cole Sulser 73.3 8.35 3.80 1.47 86 0.1 Dave Hooten
Julian Merryweather 114.0 7.18 2.76 1.74 81 0.1 Doug Waechter
Craig Breslow 43.0 6.49 3.56 1.26 87 0.0 Bob Scanlan
Joe Colon 55.7 7.60 5.17 1.29 81 -0.1 Mike Zimmerman
Adam Plutko 130.0 6.65 3.18 1.73 78 -0.2 Andy Taulbee
Neil Ramirez 46.7 10.80 5.01 1.74 83 -0.2 Billy Sylvester
Travis Banwart 85.3 5.91 3.38 1.69 77 -0.2 R.A. Dickey
Matt Whitehouse 98.7 6.20 3.56 1.64 77 -0.3 Don Vesling
Cameron Hill 62.7 6.46 2.87 1.72 79 -0.4 Julio Guerrero
Chris Narveson 84.7 6.06 4.04 1.81 73 -0.4 Vern Kennedy
Robbie Aviles 59.3 4.55 3.34 1.37 77 -0.5 Blake Mayo
Jarrett Grube 108.7 6.46 3.15 2.07 71 -0.7 Aaron Sele
Michael Peoples 105.3 4.61 4.36 1.71 67 -1.1 Mark Woodyard
D.J. Brown 93.0 6.58 3.29 2.42 64 -1.5 Scott Shoemaker
Matt Esparza 122.3 6.33 3.60 2.28 65 -1.6 Ty Hartshorn
Shao-Ching Chiang 138.7 4.35 2.47 2.14 66 -1.7 Charlie Scott

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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mikejunt
Member
Member
mikejunt

Both Lindor and Corey Seager have Troy Tulowitski as their top comp.

BlueBlooded
Member
BlueBlooded

Maybe I should save this for the Effectively Wild group, but it’s like ZiPS has doubled down on Tulo. (This reference only makes sense if you’ve listened to yesterday’s Minor League FA draft episode. Oh Lord, when will we finally have baseball again?)

Choos on first
Member
Choos on first

That’s not something that I’d ever complain about. Tulo had all the talent in the worth only to get derailed by constant and lingering injuries. Dude was an absolute beast when healthy, but it seems like they finally started catching up to them.