2018 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Rockies produced the third-highest run total in the majors this past season but also the fourth-lowest adjusted offensive runs mark. The most notable difference between those two metrics, of course, is that the latter accounts for park. Despite the club’s strong raw numbers, only three of Colorado’s regulars (Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Mark Reynolds) produced above-average batting lines. Only two (Arenado and Blackmon) recorded two or more wins.

At the moment, the prognosis for the 2018 season — among the team’s position players, at least — isn’t much better. Arenado (667 PA, 5.2 zWAR) and Blackmon (672, 3.8) continue to profile as durable, star-level talents. DJ LeMahieu (653, 2.1), meanwhile, offers average play. Beyond that triumvirate, however, no other hitter is forecast by Szymborski’s computer to exceed the two-win mark.

The club would appear to benefit from help most immediately in the corner outfield, at first base, and at catcher. With regard to the first two positions, what the club lacks in reliable quality, it possesses in possibly useful quantity, including David Dahl (473, 1.5), who was expected to be last year’s Opening Day left fielder before losing much of the season to injury.

Pitchers
For all the shortcomings of the club’s position-playing contingent, the Rockies nevertheless managed to qualify for a Wild Card spot. That was, in part, due to some fortunate sequencing — the club won five more games than BaseRuns suggested they “should” — but also because of the pitching staff. Colorado pitchers conspired to produce the eighth-most wins among the peers in the majors. Their collective 18.2 WAR mark represented the unit’s third-highest total in the history of the organization.

A group of young starters was largely responsible for that success, and almost all of them return in 2018. Jon Gray (141.0 IP, 81 ERA-, 3.2), German Marquez (167.1, 90, 3.2), Kyle Freeland (164.1, 94, 2.5), Tyler Anderson (105.0, 89, 2.0), and Chad Bettis (111.2, 100, 1.5) are both (a) likely to constitute the club’s Opening Day rotation and (b) forecast to produce wins at an average-or-better rate.

As for the bullpen, it has endured a couple notable defections in Greg Holland (47.1 IP, 72 ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) and deadline acquisition Pat Neshek (49.2, 69, 1.3) but remains quite solid. Adam Ottavino (48.0, 93, 0.5) is likely to receive save opportunities, although Carlos Estevez (65.1, 80, 1.1), Jake McGee (51.2, 76, 1.1), and Chris Rusin (76.1, 78, 1.5) all appear capable of handling high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
Beyond Dahl, the club features a number of young players with varying levels of upside. Neither Garrett Hampson (567 PA, 1.0 zWAR) nor former No. 3 pick Brendan Rodgers (477, 1.1) is likely to break camp with the club, but both profile as one-win players already. Ryan McMahon (557, 1.0) and Mike Tauchman (524, 1.0), meanwhile, have both appeared previously in the majors and seem to have a case for doing so again.

On the pitching side, one finds that both Jeff Hoffman (142.0, 2.0) and Antonio Senzatela (149.1, 2.4) have been omitted from the depth-chart image below. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, either could serve as an able member of the rotation, giving the club further depth in that area. Young right-hander Ryan Castellani (146.0, 1.4), meanwhile, receives the top WAR projection of any rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rockies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Nolan Arenado R 27 3B 667 100 178 41 6 40 127 3 3
Charlie Blackmon L 31 CF 672 116 187 34 7 31 86 14 10
DJ LeMahieu R 29 2B 653 90 180 26 5 9 61 10 6
Jonathan Lucroy R 32 C 482 55 128 26 3 11 61 2 1
Trevor Story R 25 SS 546 71 118 28 5 26 80 10 3
David Dahl L 24 LF 473 66 121 23 5 21 64 15 6
Brendan Rodgers R 21 SS 477 60 123 22 2 18 57 4 5
Mike Tauchman L 27 CF 524 61 133 23 7 9 50 18 9
Ryan McMahon L 23 1B 557 67 145 30 4 17 69 10 5
Garrett Hampson R 23 2B 567 76 143 18 7 7 54 37 13
Raimel Tapia L 24 CF 551 67 151 27 8 8 51 19 9
Carlos Gonzalez L 32 RF 525 69 123 28 1 23 68 3 0
Dom Nunez L 23 C 401 44 77 11 2 8 36 7 1
Ian Desmond R 32 LF 525 68 129 21 2 19 75 18 5
Daniel Castro R 25 SS 476 47 121 21 2 5 42 2 4
Tony Wolters L 26 C 305 32 63 12 2 3 24 1 2
Anthony Bemboom L 28 C 227 23 50 8 2 4 21 1 2
Pat Valaika R 25 SS 476 54 108 23 3 15 58 7 6
Josh Fuentes R 25 3B 455 48 108 20 4 11 48 6 5
Gerardo Parra L 31 LF 465 60 125 26 3 10 54 6 5
Mark Reynolds R 34 1B 482 56 102 18 1 23 67 2 2
Tom Murphy R 27 C 326 39 70 17 2 11 46 1 1
Jan Vazquez B 27 C 239 25 48 7 1 5 21 2 3
Jordan Patterson L 26 1B 533 66 124 26 5 19 66 7 5
Cristhian Adames B 26 2B 437 47 102 16 4 8 40 5 6
Wes Rogers R 24 LF 514 60 121 23 5 6 44 45 12
Ryan Hanigan R 37 C 157 14 31 4 0 2 15 0 0
Noel Cuevas R 26 RF 495 54 124 17 7 10 50 13 5
Yonathan Daza R 24 CF 559 59 146 24 6 3 44 18 11
Chris Rabago R 25 C 333 33 74 11 3 1 22 14 9
Chris Denorfia R 37 LF 90 9 21 2 1 2 8 3 0
Stephen Cardullo R 30 LF 356 42 84 16 2 10 40 3 3
Derrik Gibson R 28 3B 409 43 91 13 5 3 33 8 3
Rafael Ynoa B 30 2B 418 42 96 18 3 3 29 6 4
Alexi Amarista L 29 SS 273 29 69 11 1 4 35 5 1
Omar Carrizales L 23 CF 519 52 118 18 7 6 39 13 11
Forrest Wall L 22 CF 425 45 100 14 4 8 39 16 14
Juan Ciriaco R 34 2B 234 24 55 11 1 4 26 7 1
Ryan Howard L 38 1B 231 21 48 9 0 13 42 0 0
Brian Mundell R 24 1B 525 63 127 27 1 10 50 4 4
Ashley Graeter R 28 2B 346 35 79 14 1 8 31 6 5
Rosell Herrera B 25 LF 433 46 99 16 3 5 33 17 8
Roberto Ramos L 23 1B 516 55 121 22 1 11 46 3 2
Sam Hilliard L 24 RF 550 61 119 16 5 13 53 25 17
Max White L 24 LF 432 45 84 16 5 9 34 22 14
Dillon Thomas L 25 LF 393 35 77 17 2 6 31 12 7
Drew Weeks R 25 RF 517 54 113 19 3 11 48 12 12
Correlle Prime R 24 1B 408 37 81 14 2 8 33 4 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Nolan Arenado 667 8.1% 15.4% .288 .297 .297 .354 .585 .384 122
Charlie Blackmon 672 7.4% 17.0% .234 .338 .310 .372 .544 .383 121
DJ LeMahieu 653 8.3% 13.6% .108 .348 .307 .367 .415 .339 92
Jonathan Lucroy 482 9.1% 12.2% .151 .321 .298 .365 .449 .348 98
Trevor Story 546 8.6% 33.0% .236 .319 .240 .310 .476 .330 86
David Dahl 473 7.0% 27.5% .220 .350 .277 .329 .497 .348 98
Brendan Rodgers 477 4.4% 21.8% .180 .322 .276 .319 .456 .330 86
Mike Tauchman 524 7.3% 17.7% .134 .327 .279 .332 .414 .319 79
Ryan McMahon 557 7.7% 23.2% .176 .351 .287 .342 .462 .340 93
Garrett Hampson 567 7.4% 16.0% .103 .321 .278 .329 .381 .307 71
Raimel Tapia 551 4.2% 17.1% .129 .340 .292 .322 .421 .316 77
Carlos Gonzalez 525 8.6% 22.5% .209 .297 .259 .324 .468 .333 88
Dom Nunez 401 10.5% 23.9% .111 .277 .220 .308 .331 .283 55
Ian Desmond 525 6.5% 23.4% .170 .321 .268 .321 .438 .324 82
Daniel Castro 476 4.2% 11.3% .090 .297 .272 .302 .362 .285 57
Tony Wolters 305 9.2% 24.3% .092 .308 .232 .308 .325 .276 51
Anthony Bemboom 227 7.9% 21.1% .117 .299 .244 .307 .361 .290 60
Pat Valaika 476 4.6% 26.1% .168 .304 .245 .281 .413 .295 63
Josh Fuentes 455 4.4% 22.9% .145 .315 .257 .302 .402 .301 67
Gerardo Parra 465 4.5% 16.6% .143 .326 .287 .321 .430 .319 79
Mark Reynolds 482 10.6% 28.4% .209 .295 .240 .324 .449 .330 86
Tom Murphy 326 5.5% 34.0% .178 .322 .230 .279 .408 .292 61
Jan Vazquez 239 7.9% 26.4% .114 .301 .229 .306 .343 .286 57
Jordan Patterson 533 6.2% 26.8% .193 .325 .258 .320 .451 .328 85
Cristhian Adames 437 6.9% 19.2% .121 .305 .258 .310 .379 .297 65
Wes Rogers 514 7.2% 21.4% .109 .326 .260 .318 .369 .300 66
Ryan Hanigan 157 8.3% 22.9% .072 .282 .225 .295 .297 .262 41
Noel Cuevas 495 4.0% 21.2% .131 .325 .267 .303 .399 .300 66
Yonathan Daza 559 3.8% 19.0% .086 .341 .279 .309 .365 .291 60
Chris Rabago 333 6.6% 19.8% .067 .309 .247 .304 .313 .274 49
Chris Denorfia 90 7.8% 20.0% .122 .306 .256 .315 .378 .297 65
Stephen Cardullo 356 8.1% 16.3% .155 .289 .261 .326 .416 .318 78
Derrik Gibson 409 7.3% 21.5% .087 .313 .247 .308 .333 .283 55
Rafael Ynoa 418 6.7% 18.9% .086 .306 .249 .303 .335 .280 53
Alexi Amarista 273 5.9% 16.1% .100 .316 .275 .317 .375 .297 64
Omar Carrizales 519 6.7% 20.4% .105 .307 .248 .303 .354 .286 57
Forrest Wall 425 6.1% 20.2% .119 .310 .258 .307 .376 .296 64
Juan Ciriaco 234 5.1% 18.4% .115 .295 .252 .289 .367 .281 54
Ryan Howard 231 5.2% 31.2% .223 .263 .223 .264 .447 .292 61
Brian Mundell 525 8.6% 17.3% .126 .312 .270 .335 .396 .315 76
Ashley Graeter 346 4.9% 22.8% .125 .301 .246 .289 .371 .282 55
Rosell Herrera 433 7.9% 21.2% .095 .318 .253 .315 .348 .291 60
Roberto Ramos 516 5.8% 27.7% .118 .332 .251 .295 .369 .286 57
Sam Hilliard 550 7.3% 32.0% .129 .334 .237 .293 .366 .284 56
Max White 432 9.3% 33.6% .137 .322 .218 .295 .355 .284 56
Dillon Thomas 393 5.1% 37.2% .107 .333 .212 .263 .320 .254 36
Drew Weeks 517 6.2% 24.4% .122 .298 .238 .288 .360 .280 53
Correlle Prime 408 5.1% 35.3% .110 .315 .211 .256 .321 .250 33

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Nolan Arenado 667 7.9 131 11 5.2 Adrian Beltre
Charlie Blackmon 672 7.8 127 -2 3.8 Andy Van Slyke
DJ LeMahieu 653 5.9 97 4 2.1 Tom Herr
Jonathan Lucroy 482 6.3 104 -5 1.7 Bob Boone
Trevor Story 546 5.3 94 1 1.7 Alex Gonzalez
David Dahl 473 6.2 104 4 1.5 Mike Patterson
Brendan Rodgers 477 5.3 92 -1 1.1 Tony Batista
Mike Tauchman 524 5.1 87 4 1.0 Mike Kingery
Ryan McMahon 557 6.0 100 5 1.0 Daryl Sconiers
Garrett Hampson 567 4.9 79 6 1.0 Herman Iribarren
Raimel Tapia 551 5.2 86 3 0.9 Alexis Rios
Carlos Gonzalez 525 5.6 97 -1 0.5 Casey Blake
Dom Nunez 401 3.7 62 5 0.5 Mike Rabelo
Ian Desmond 525 5.4 89 1 0.4 Doug Clark
Daniel Castro 476 3.9 67 8 0.4 Dean DeCillis
Tony Wolters 305 3.4 60 6 0.3 Andy Skeels
Anthony Bemboom 227 3.8 68 2 0.2 Dwight Lowry
Pat Valaika 476 4.0 72 3 0.2 Kyle Reynolds
Josh Fuentes 455 4.3 76 3 0.2 Ricky Bell
Gerardo Parra 465 5.1 87 2 0.1 Chad Allen
Mark Reynolds 482 5.1 92 0 0.1 Lee Stevens
Tom Murphy 326 4.0 70 -2 0.0 Bob Geren
Jan Vazquez 239 3.5 64 0 0.0 Tony DeFrancesco
Jordan Patterson 533 5.2 92 0 0.0 Scott Krause
Cristhian Adames 437 4.1 73 2 0.0 Chris Lombardozzi
Wes Rogers 514 4.8 73 4 0.0 Tim Raines Jr.
Ryan Hanigan 157 3.1 50 2 -0.1 Rick Ferrell
Noel Cuevas 495 4.5 75 6 -0.1 Chad Mottola
Yonathan Daza 559 4.1 69 4 -0.1 Jerome Walton
Chris Rabago 333 3.3 57 2 -0.1 Brad Ausmus
Chris Denorfia 90 4.7 74 -1 -0.1 Curtis Pride
Stephen Cardullo 356 4.9 86 -1 -0.2 Matthew Cepicky
Derrik Gibson 409 3.7 62 1 -0.5 Luis Bolivar
Rafael Ynoa 418 3.6 61 3 -0.5 Frank Kellner
Alexi Amarista 273 4.6 74 -7 -0.5 Kent Anderson
Omar Carrizales 519 3.6 65 1 -0.7 Vic Buttler
Forrest Wall 425 3.9 71 -5 -0.8 Trent Oeltjen
Juan Ciriaco 234 4.1 64 -8 -0.9 Billy Martin
Ryan Howard 231 4.1 75 -4 -0.9 Tito Landrum
Brian Mundell 525 4.8 84 -5 -0.9 Dave Hollins
Ashley Graeter 346 3.7 65 -6 -1.1 Jason Camilli
Rosell Herrera 433 4.0 67 -3 -1.1 Keith Smith
Roberto Ramos 516 3.9 66 4 -1.2 Brandon Snyder
Sam Hilliard 550 3.6 65 2 -1.4 Ty Gainey
Max White 432 3.5 63 -4 -1.6 Dave Krynzel
Dillon Thomas 393 2.8 46 1 -1.8 Michael Rodriguez
Drew Weeks 517 3.4 62 -3 -1.9 John Rigos
Correlle Prime 408 2.5 44 2 -2.3 Eli Tintor

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jon Gray R 26 26 26 141.0 145 47 17 139 68 64
German Marquez R 23 31 30 167.3 144 44 27 178 90 84
Kyle Freeland L 25 35 30 164.3 114 61 23 182 92 86
Antonio Senzatela R 23 41 23 149.3 113 50 19 155 79 74
Tyler Chatwood R 28 30 24 140.0 107 66 19 141 80 75
Jeff Hoffman R 25 31 26 142.0 122 58 21 150 81 76
Tyler Anderson L 28 21 19 105.0 91 36 16 109 56 52
Chris Rusin L 31 58 0 76.3 62 21 9 78 35 33
Chad Bettis R 29 23 20 111.7 81 39 16 126 66 62
Greg Holland R 32 53 0 47.3 59 25 4 38 20 19
Ryan Castellani R 22 26 26 146.0 97 56 22 169 93 87
Pat Neshek R 37 61 0 49.7 49 8 7 46 20 19
Carlos Estevez R 25 70 0 65.3 64 27 7 63 31 29
Jake McGee L 31 59 0 51.7 50 16 6 50 24 22
Austin House R 27 50 0 62.3 48 27 5 65 31 29
Sam Howard L 25 24 24 123.0 90 49 22 143 80 75
Scott Oberg R 28 66 0 61.7 56 26 6 61 31 29
James Farris R 26 46 0 55.7 56 21 8 55 29 27
Mike Dunn L 33 62 0 45.3 50 23 7 43 25 23
Adam Ottavino R 32 56 0 48.0 57 28 7 44 27 25
Zac Rosscup L 30 38 0 39.7 49 19 7 37 21 20
C.C. Lee R 31 33 0 39.0 40 17 6 40 21 20
Chad Qualls R 39 36 0 29.0 22 7 5 32 16 15
Shane Carle R 26 32 14 98.3 67 30 21 121 68 64
Ryan Carpenter L 27 25 22 129.3 113 43 33 152 93 87
Jairo Diaz R 27 42 0 43.0 36 24 6 46 27 25
Rayan Gonzalez R 27 34 0 34.7 27 22 3 37 21 20
Scott McGough R 28 40 1 57.7 45 28 10 65 37 35
Nick Additon L 30 15 13 71.0 38 26 16 89 52 49
Matt Pierpont R 27 32 0 53.7 44 20 13 63 37 35
Shane Broyles R 26 46 0 51.7 60 31 12 53 36 34
Barry Enright R 32 18 17 89.3 52 25 20 118 70 65
Yency Almonte R 24 23 22 110.0 82 60 27 132 88 82
Zach Jemiola R 24 21 21 107.0 51 49 23 138 85 79
Huascar Brazoban R 28 34 0 33.7 22 27 6 39 28 26
Harrison Musgrave L 26 23 23 125.0 87 46 33 156 98 92
Jesus Tinoco R 23 23 23 118.7 67 57 28 153 95 89
Will Lamb L 27 38 2 59.0 49 46 13 67 48 45
Edison Frias R 27 30 10 75.7 47 42 18 96 63 59
Johendi Jiminian R 25 40 2 60.0 37 41 13 74 49 46
Troy Neiman R 27 39 0 61.7 50 32 17 74 50 47
Thad Weber R 33 20 17 92.0 51 31 29 125 80 75

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jon Gray 141.0 609 23.8% 7.7% .310 4.09 3.80 81 82
German Marquez 167.3 724 19.9% 6.1% .302 4.52 4.45 90 96
Kyle Freeland 164.3 736 15.5% 8.3% .300 4.71 4.78 94 103
Antonio Senzatela 149.3 653 17.3% 7.7% .292 4.46 4.38 89 95
Tyler Chatwood 140.0 627 17.1% 10.5% .283 4.82 4.85 96 105
Jeff Hoffman 142.0 634 19.2% 9.1% .302 4.82 4.69 96 101
Tyler Anderson 105.0 460 19.8% 7.8% .298 4.46 4.55 89 98
Chris Rusin 76.3 328 18.9% 6.4% .296 3.89 3.93 78 85
Chad Bettis 111.7 500 16.2% 7.8% .306 5.00 4.67 100 101
Greg Holland 47.3 205 28.8% 12.2% .291 3.61 3.28 72 71
Ryan Castellani 146.0 663 14.6% 8.4% .306 5.36 5.10 107 110
Pat Neshek 49.7 203 24.1% 3.9% .283 3.44 3.44 69 74
Carlos Estevez 65.3 286 22.4% 9.4% .304 3.99 3.92 80 85
Jake McGee 51.7 221 22.6% 7.2% .299 3.83 3.72 76 80
Austin House 62.3 279 17.2% 9.7% .306 4.19 4.06 83 88
Sam Howard 123.0 561 16.0% 8.7% .308 5.49 5.39 109 116
Scott Oberg 61.7 272 20.6% 9.6% .304 4.23 3.92 84 85
James Farris 55.7 243 23.0% 8.6% .303 4.37 4.20 87 91
Mike Dunn 45.3 202 24.8% 11.4% .300 4.57 4.61 91 100
Adam Ottavino 48.0 216 26.4% 13.0% .306 4.69 4.55 93 98
Zac Rosscup 39.7 175 28.0% 10.9% .303 4.54 4.42 90 95
C.C. Lee 39.0 174 23.0% 9.8% .312 4.62 4.49 92 97
Chad Qualls 29.0 126 17.5% 5.6% .297 4.66 4.61 93 99
Shane Carle 98.3 446 15.0% 6.7% .310 5.86 5.64 117 122
Ryan Carpenter 129.3 583 19.4% 7.4% .307 6.05 5.89 121 127
Jairo Diaz 43.0 199 18.1% 12.1% .305 5.23 5.04 104 109
Rayan Gonzalez 34.7 163 16.6% 13.5% .312 5.19 4.72 103 102
Scott McGough 57.7 266 16.9% 10.5% .306 5.46 5.41 109 117
Nick Additon 71.0 328 11.6% 7.9% .299 6.21 6.24 124 135
Matt Pierpont 53.7 244 18.0% 8.2% .305 5.87 5.95 117 128
Shane Broyles 51.7 239 25.1% 13.0% .308 5.92 5.77 118 125
Barry Enright 89.3 411 12.7% 6.1% .317 6.55 5.91 131 128
Yency Almonte 110.0 522 15.7% 11.5% .303 6.71 6.68 134 144
Zach Jemiola 107.0 508 10.0% 9.6% .303 6.64 6.54 132 141
Huascar Brazoban 33.7 167 13.2% 16.2% .300 6.95 6.66 139 144
Harrison Musgrave 125.0 577 15.1% 8.0% .304 6.62 6.47 132 140
Jesus Tinoco 118.7 566 11.8% 10.1% .308 6.75 6.74 135 145
Will Lamb 59.0 290 16.9% 15.9% .303 6.86 6.90 137 149
Edison Frias 75.7 365 12.9% 11.5% .308 7.02 6.79 140 147
Johendi Jiminian 60.0 295 12.5% 13.9% .305 6.90 6.94 138 150
Troy Neiman 61.7 291 17.2% 11.0% .303 6.86 6.73 137 145
Thad Weber 92.0 432 11.8% 7.2% .304 7.34 7.29 146 157

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jon Gray 141.0 9.26 3.00 1.09 120 3.2 Brad Penny
German Marquez 167.3 7.75 2.37 1.45 110 3.2 Scott Baker
Kyle Freeland 164.3 6.24 3.34 1.26 104 2.5 Jim O’Toole
Antonio Senzatela 149.3 6.81 3.01 1.15 110 2.4 Milt Pappas
Tyler Chatwood 140.0 6.88 4.24 1.22 101 2.0 Paul Foytack
Jeff Hoffman 142.0 7.73 3.68 1.33 101 2.0 Al Nipper
Tyler Anderson 105.0 7.80 3.09 1.37 110 2.0 Chris Hammond
Chris Rusin 76.3 7.31 2.48 1.06 126 1.5 Lee Guetterman
Chad Bettis 111.7 6.53 3.14 1.29 98 1.5 Ed Wojna
Greg Holland 47.3 11.22 4.75 0.76 137 1.4 Curt Leskanic
Ryan Castellani 146.0 5.98 3.45 1.36 91 1.4 Michael Macdonald
Pat Neshek 49.7 8.88 1.45 1.27 142 1.3 Rick Aguilera
Carlos Estevez 65.3 8.82 3.72 0.96 122 1.1 Blaine Neal
Jake McGee 51.7 8.71 2.79 1.05 128 1.1 Hank Aguirre
Austin House 62.3 6.93 3.90 0.72 118 1.0 Charlie Williams
Sam Howard 123.0 6.59 3.59 1.61 89 1.0 Thomas Biko
Scott Oberg 61.7 8.17 3.79 0.88 115 0.9 Sean Green
James Farris 55.7 9.05 3.40 1.29 112 0.7 Teddy Higuera
Mike Dunn 45.3 9.93 4.57 1.39 107 0.5 Marshall Bridges
Adam Ottavino 48.0 10.69 5.25 1.31 104 0.5 Marshall Bridges
Zac Rosscup 39.7 11.12 4.31 1.59 108 0.4 Yorkis Perez
C.C. Lee 39.0 9.23 3.92 1.38 106 0.4 Bryce Florie
Chad Qualls 29.0 6.83 2.17 1.55 106 0.3 Dick Hall
Shane Carle 98.3 6.13 2.75 1.92 83 0.3 David Lundberg
Ryan Carpenter 129.3 7.86 2.99 2.30 81 0.2 Buddy Groom
Jairo Diaz 43.0 7.53 5.02 1.26 95 0.2 Casey Daigle
Rayan Gonzalez 34.7 7.01 5.71 0.78 94 0.1 Newt Kimball
Scott McGough 57.7 7.02 4.37 1.56 89 0.1 Mike Bumstead
Nick Additon 71.0 4.82 3.30 2.03 80 0.1 Dave Gassner
Matt Pierpont 53.7 7.38 3.35 2.18 83 -0.2 Steve Gajkowski
Shane Broyles 51.7 10.45 5.40 2.09 83 -0.2 Brian Mallette
Barry Enright 89.3 5.24 2.52 2.01 76 -0.2 Brian Tollberg
Yency Almonte 110.0 6.71 4.91 2.21 74 -0.5 Wray Bergendahl
Zach Jemiola 107.0 4.29 4.12 1.93 74 -0.5 Jeremy Johnson
Huascar Brazoban 33.7 5.88 7.22 1.60 71 -0.5 Ed Sprague
Harrison Musgrave 125.0 6.26 3.31 2.38 74 -0.5 Mike Rochford
Jesus Tinoco 118.7 5.08 4.32 2.12 73 -0.5 Nick Masset
Will Lamb 59.0 7.47 7.02 1.98 72 -0.7 Justin Lamber
Edison Frias 75.7 5.59 5.00 2.14 71 -0.7 Maximo Nunez
Johendi Jiminian 60.0 5.55 6.15 1.95 71 -0.8 Sean Green
Troy Neiman 61.7 7.30 4.67 2.48 71 -0.9 Mumba Rivera
Thad Weber 92.0 4.99 3.03 2.84 67 -1.0 Brian Tollberg

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Ryan Carpenter has signed with the Tigers. How much does that change his projection? Going from Coors to Comerica has to help a bit, right?