2018 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Detroit’s collection of hitters doesn’t fair particularly well by the projections, nor is this particularly surprising: having finally embraced the notion of a rebuild, the club has spent the last six months divesting itself of all mildly attractive assets. Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, and Justin Upton represented three-quarters of the team’s offensive core least year. They’ve all been traded since mid-July.

What remains is rather modest. Miguel Cabrera (526 PA, 2.0 zWAR) and Nick Castellanos (634, 2.3) receive the only projections of two or more wins. Designated hitter Victor Martinez (446, 0.3) is a replacement-level player. All other starters occupy a spot somewhere with that range. This is a below-average group.

That’s not to say there aren’t items of interest. Overall, the team is younger. Third baseman Jeimer Candelario (596, 1.7), acquired from the Cubs in the Justin Wilson trade, earns a nearly league-average forecast. Also, the club appears likely to field one of its best defenses for some time. Leonys Martin (507, 1.7) is projected for +9 runs in center field. Dixon Machado (496, 0.8) is a +4 shortstop playing second base. Miscast as a center fielder, Mikie Mahtook (428, 0.7) is probably an asset in left.

Pitchers
Much of what applies to the club’s hitting corps is relevant to the pitching staff, as well. Justin Verlander, of course, was traded to Houston last summer. In his absence, Michael Fulmer (162.1, 2.9 zWAR) becomes both the nominal and also actual ace of the team. Despite missing fewer bats in his sophomore campaign, Fulmer recorded largely similar fielding-independent numbers overall in 2017. ZiPS calls for basically a carbon copy of his first two seasons.

After Fulmer will appear, in some kind of order, Matt Boyd (161.2, 1.5), Mike Fiers (147.1, 1.4), Daniel Norris (134.0, 1.6), and Jordan Zimmermann (142.1, 1.2). While the process differs for each, all four appear to offer basically the same product — which is to pitch like a No. 4 starter.

As for the bullpen, Shane Greene (64.0 IP, 82 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) is likely to close games. Conveniently, he also receives basically the top ERA projection on the club. The recipient of the actual top ERA projection is Blaine Hardy (65.0, 81, 1.0), who appears to fare well here — at least in part — due to his impressive minor-league line in 2017.

Bench/Prospects
Unsurprisingly for a club that has weighed future over present value in recent deals, the Tigers’ system features some bright spots. Dawel Lugo (577 PA, 1.5 zWAR), for example, earns the top wins forecast not only among the organization’s rookie-eligible players but also all those omitted from the depth-chart image below. Projected by Szymborski as a +4-run third baseman, Lugo also spent time at second and third for Double-A Erie.

Artie Lewicki (125.2 IP, 1.4 zWAR) is decidedly not one of the talents acquired by Detroit in a high-profile trade but rather a former eighth-round pick who has slowly ascended the organizational ladder. Lewicki made his major-league debut last season as 25-year-old and figures to have some kind of opportunity in 2018, as well. He receives a forecase basically on par with the club’s No. 1-4 starters.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tigers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Nick Castellanos R 26 RF 634 67 166 37 8 28 97 3 4
Miguel Cabrera R 35 1B 526 61 132 27 1 20 74 0 1
Jeimer Candelario B 24 3B 596 68 133 36 4 16 68 1 1
Leonys Martin L 30 CF 507 63 119 21 3 13 51 25 9
James McCann R 28 C 408 39 94 17 2 11 49 2 1
Dawel Lugo R 23 3B 577 63 147 24 5 16 62 2 1
Jose Iglesias R 28 SS 494 54 122 25 1 5 41 8 4
Derek Norris R 29 C 396 46 86 18 1 13 52 5 1
Dixon Machado R 26 SS 496 49 109 20 2 5 36 8 3
Mikie Mahtook R 28 CF 428 48 100 20 4 11 44 8 2
John Hicks R 28 C 379 40 85 16 1 10 42 6 3
Grayson Greiner R 25 C 367 34 74 15 1 9 35 0 0
Jake Rogers R 23 C 460 46 82 17 3 11 47 8 9
Mike Gerber L 25 CF 499 55 108 23 4 15 55 7 4
Kody Eaves L 24 3B 447 47 90 18 3 12 47 7 5
Bryan Holaday R 30 C 320 31 69 15 1 8 37 0 3
Victor Martinez B 39 DH 446 41 109 15 0 13 55 0 0
Ronny Rodriguez R 26 2B 474 49 109 18 2 13 48 8 5
JaCoby Jones R 26 CF 530 55 101 18 3 15 53 14 6
Steven Moya L 26 RF 497 57 109 21 3 26 69 5 2
Jason Krizan L 29 RF 495 50 113 23 3 8 44 5 5
Troy Montgomery L 23 CF 445 47 93 13 5 9 40 11 7
Chad Huffman R 33 LF 354 42 73 20 2 10 38 2 1
Edwin Espinal R 24 1B 520 48 123 26 0 11 59 1 1
Matt den Dekker L 30 LF 373 40 75 16 2 9 37 10 5
Pete Kozma R 30 SS 345 34 63 13 0 3 22 6 4
Christin Stewart L 24 LF 522 61 106 22 3 20 69 3 1
Brayan Pena B 36 C 226 14 54 8 0 1 14 1 1
Alex Presley L 32 LF 399 38 89 12 3 6 30 7 3
Brendan Ryan R 36 SS 327 26 60 12 1 2 20 3 4
Zack Cox L 29 3B 355 33 77 14 1 4 28 1 0
Alexi Amarista L 29 SS 270 26 62 9 1 3 27 5 1
Sergio Alcantara B 21 SS 517 47 111 17 2 3 29 12 13
Efren Navarro L 32 1B 530 54 114 19 2 7 42 1 3
Victor Reyes B 23 RF 543 52 128 20 6 5 42 15 8
Kenny Wilson R 28 CF 435 41 85 14 3 5 30 18 9
Jim Adduci L 33 RF 388 40 78 17 3 7 38 10 4
Logan Watkins L 28 2B 369 36 73 12 2 3 25 9 5
Niko Goodrum B 26 RF 480 50 98 19 3 11 47 12 5
Omar Infante R 36 2B 440 36 96 18 2 3 34 2 3
Dominic Ficociello B 26 1B 513 49 104 20 2 8 39 6 3
Gabriel Quintana R 25 1B 499 51 103 24 2 17 63 2 2
Jose Azocar R 22 CF 500 37 97 11 5 2 30 10 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Nick Castellanos 634 6.5% 22.7% .235 .331 .285 .333 .520 .356 121
Miguel Cabrera 526 10.3% 19.2% .191 .322 .284 .359 .475 .351 118
Jeimer Candelario 596 8.6% 22.8% .171 .302 .248 .317 .419 .315 93
Leonys Martin 507 5.7% 22.7% .140 .307 .253 .299 .394 .296 80
James McCann 408 5.9% 23.8% .145 .310 .252 .305 .397 .303 85
Dawel Lugo 577 3.8% 14.6% .149 .289 .267 .296 .416 .303 85
Jose Iglesias 494 4.7% 11.7% .091 .293 .265 .306 .357 .288 75
Derek Norris 396 8.1% 23.7% .165 .289 .240 .308 .405 .306 87
Dixon Machado 496 7.5% 16.5% .088 .288 .245 .305 .333 .281 70
Mikie Mahtook 428 5.6% 23.8% .154 .313 .253 .306 .408 .307 87
John Hicks 379 4.2% 26.1% .134 .299 .238 .272 .373 .276 67
Grayson Greiner 367 6.5% 26.7% .130 .278 .219 .272 .349 .268 61
Jake Rogers 460 7.6% 25.0% .135 .242 .198 .267 .333 .260 56
Mike Gerber 499 6.6% 29.1% .166 .307 .235 .289 .401 .294 79
Kody Eaves 447 6.9% 29.3% .146 .290 .220 .278 .366 .279 68
Bryan Holaday 320 4.4% 17.5% .139 .260 .234 .274 .373 .277 67
Victor Martinez 446 7.6% 14.8% .133 .292 .268 .330 .401 .314 92
Ronny Rodriguez 474 3.8% 21.9% .137 .290 .245 .276 .383 .280 69
JaCoby Jones 530 6.4% 34.3% .143 .297 .209 .268 .352 .268 61
Steven Moya 497 4.4% 33.0% .223 .293 .232 .268 .455 .301 83
Jason Krizan 495 7.7% 11.9% .118 .271 .251 .306 .368 .292 77
Troy Montgomery 445 7.9% 20.0% .126 .281 .235 .303 .361 .289 75
Chad Huffman 354 9.0% 22.9% .174 .284 .235 .320 .410 .315 93
Edwin Espinal 520 4.0% 17.5% .121 .286 .252 .285 .373 .281 70
Matt den Dekker 373 8.0% 27.3% .139 .291 .223 .291 .362 .284 72
Pete Kozma 345 6.1% 22.3% .070 .253 .199 .257 .269 .236 39
Christin Stewart 522 8.4% 31.4% .189 .300 .227 .301 .416 .307 87
Brayan Pena 226 5.3% 9.3% .052 .279 .257 .298 .310 .268 61
Alex Presley 399 5.8% 18.5% .098 .285 .241 .288 .339 .272 64
Brendan Ryan 327 7.0% 21.4% .067 .254 .201 .262 .268 .237 40
Zack Cox 355 6.8% 26.2% .086 .315 .236 .290 .322 .269 62
Alexi Amarista 270 5.6% 17.8% .080 .294 .249 .291 .329 .268 61
Sergio Alcantara 517 7.0% 18.4% .063 .286 .235 .288 .298 .261 56
Efren Navarro 530 8.5% 20.2% .091 .289 .237 .302 .328 .276 66
Victor Reyes 543 4.4% 18.0% .092 .300 .250 .286 .342 .271 63
Kenny Wilson 435 6.7% 26.2% .088 .287 .215 .277 .303 .256 53
Jim Adduci 388 6.2% 29.4% .123 .295 .217 .268 .340 .261 56
Logan Watkins 369 7.3% 22.0% .075 .280 .220 .283 .295 .256 53
Niko Goodrum 480 6.3% 28.3% .131 .290 .221 .271 .351 .269 61
Omar Infante 440 3.6% 12.0% .075 .255 .231 .258 .305 .243 44
Dominic Ficociello 513 6.8% 28.1% .102 .299 .221 .278 .323 .263 57
Gabriel Quintana 499 3.2% 33.1% .167 .291 .217 .247 .384 .266 59
Jose Azocar 500 2.8% 30.0% .056 .288 .203 .225 .259 .211 22

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Nick Castellanos 634 6.4 126 -7 2.3 Mike Brown
Miguel Cabrera 526 6.4 124 1 2.0 Pedro Guerrero
Jeimer Candelario 596 4.7 98 0 1.7 Larry Parrish
Leonys Martin 507 4.4 86 9 1.7 Colin Porter
James McCann 408 4.4 89 3 1.6 Damian Miller
Dawel Lugo 577 4.5 91 4 1.5 Jose Lopez
Jose Iglesias 494 4.0 79 4 1.1 Danny Sandoval
Derek Norris 396 4.5 92 -5 1.0 Chad Moeller
Dixon Machado 496 3.7 74 4 0.8 Buddy Kerr
Mikie Mahtook 428 4.6 92 -3 0.7 Chris Jones
John Hicks 379 3.6 73 3 0.7 Eli Whiteside
Grayson Greiner 367 3.3 67 4 0.6 Alvin Colina
Jake Rogers 460 2.7 62 8 0.6 Ben Petrick
Mike Gerber 499 4.1 85 0 0.5 Justin Bowles
Kody Eaves 447 3.4 73 6 0.5 Justin Baum
Bryan Holaday 320 3.4 74 1 0.4 Rick Cerone
Victor Martinez 446 4.9 97 0 0.3 Eric Karros
Ronny Rodriguez 474 3.7 76 3 0.2 Mendy Lopez
JaCoby Jones 530 3.3 66 7 0.2 Charles Hillemann
Steven Moya 497 4.3 91 -1 0.1 Chris Hatcher
Jason Krizan 495 3.9 82 2 -0.1 Tim Hyers
Troy Montgomery 445 3.8 80 -4 -0.1 Duane Singleton
Chad Huffman 354 4.6 96 -6 -0.1 Reed Secrist
Edwin Espinal 520 3.8 77 10 -0.1 Matt Merullo
Matt den Dekker 373 3.7 76 3 -0.1 Nate Murphy
Pete Kozma 345 2.3 44 7 -0.3 Les Dennis
Christin Stewart 522 4.4 92 -8 -0.4 Shon Ashley
Brayan Pena 226 3.3 66 -5 -0.4 Raul Chavez
Alex Presley 399 3.5 70 3 -0.4 Ryan Fleming
Brendan Ryan 327 2.2 45 5 -0.5 Kevin Baez
Zack Cox 355 3.3 66 -3 -0.6 Shane Turner
Alexi Amarista 270 3.6 68 -7 -0.7 Kent Anderson
Sergio Alcantara 517 2.7 60 0 -0.7 Jarrett Stotts
Efren Navarro 530 3.4 72 5 -0.9 Chris Pritchett
Victor Reyes 543 3.5 70 2 -0.9 Omar Garcia
Kenny Wilson 435 2.9 58 -2 -1.0 Mike Murphy
Jim Adduci 388 3.2 64 1 -1.0 Mitch Webster
Logan Watkins 369 2.9 58 -4 -1.1 Jonathan Malo
Niko Goodrum 480 3.4 68 -2 -1.2 Richie Robnett
Omar Infante 440 2.7 52 1 -1.2 Bob Lillis
Dominic Ficociello 513 3.1 63 1 -1.6 Larry Arndt
Gabriel Quintana 499 3.2 68 -1 -1.7 Mauro Gomez
Jose Azocar 500 1.9 31 6 -2.2 Stewart Smothers

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Michael Fulmer R 25 26 26 162.3 128 42 18 159 76 71
Daniel Norris L 25 29 27 134.0 118 58 16 139 72 67
Matt Boyd L 27 30 30 161.7 134 53 25 172 92 86
Mike Fiers R 33 28 26 147.3 121 47 24 154 82 77
Artie Lewicki R 26 25 23 125.7 86 37 16 140 70 65
Jordan Zimmermann R 32 25 25 142.3 97 34 22 162 81 76
Grayson Long R 24 26 26 119.3 91 52 15 126 66 62
Blaine Hardy L 31 64 0 65.0 53 20 5 64 28 26
Shane Greene R 29 68 0 64.0 67 28 6 57 28 26
Beau Burrows R 21 25 25 117.7 85 49 15 126 68 64
Spencer Turnbull R 25 21 21 98.3 67 50 10 105 57 53
Alex Wilson R 31 61 0 62.3 41 16 6 64 29 27
Anibal Sanchez R 34 28 21 122.7 109 36 22 131 73 68
Drew VerHagen R 27 39 18 116.3 72 44 14 129 68 64
Matt Hall L 24 25 24 123.3 99 71 16 128 75 70
Mark Montgomery R 27 45 0 57.0 55 23 7 54 28 26
Logan Kensing R 35 54 0 59.3 40 25 4 61 29 27
Joe Jimenez R 23 55 0 49.7 54 22 5 44 22 21
Bryan Garcia R 23 51 0 48.3 55 22 6 43 24 22
Chad Bell L 29 31 13 95.0 77 44 13 102 57 53
Gregory Soto L 23 22 22 100.0 84 77 9 99 62 58
Zac Reininger R 25 53 0 66.0 48 25 7 68 34 32
Franklin Perez R 20 19 16 78.7 55 33 11 86 47 44
Tyler Alexander L 23 26 25 136.0 84 25 26 162 86 80
A.J. Ladwig R 25 27 25 137.0 70 25 24 172 88 82
Bruce Rondon R 27 58 0 52.7 59 33 5 47 28 26
Daniel Stumpf L 27 68 0 56.3 51 21 8 57 30 28
Eduardo Jimenez R 23 35 0 47.0 40 20 6 47 25 23
Edward Mujica R 34 52 0 52.0 37 8 9 58 28 26
Kevin Comer R 25 45 0 64.0 62 32 8 64 35 33
Buck Farmer R 27 30 27 143.0 117 50 28 161 94 88
Gerson Moreno R 22 44 0 49.3 48 34 5 46 28 26
Warwick Saupold R 28 41 11 96.3 66 47 13 107 61 57
Jairo Labourt L 24 52 0 62.7 58 51 5 57 36 34
James Russell L 32 27 6 49.3 32 15 9 57 31 29
Arcenio Leon R 31 42 0 42.0 32 23 5 43 25 23
Sean Donatello R 27 45 0 54.3 36 18 8 62 32 30
Angel Nesbitt R 27 39 0 46.0 41 24 7 48 28 26
Johnny Barbato R 25 49 2 64.0 58 31 11 68 40 37
Enrique Burgos R 27 50 0 47.3 49 33 6 46 29 27
Ryan Carpenter L 27 25 22 131.3 109 39 30 151 89 83
Mark Ecker R 23 49 0 54.7 54 28 10 55 34 32
Paul Voelker R 25 42 0 42.0 43 19 8 43 27 25
Sandy Baez R 24 20 20 93.3 66 37 20 109 66 62
Anthony Vasquez L 31 25 24 135.7 75 45 26 164 95 89
Matt Crouse L 27 28 20 119.7 61 46 22 146 85 79
Phillippe Aumont R 29 17 5 42.0 38 38 7 44 32 30
Kurt Spomer R 28 44 0 51.7 29 25 9 60 36 34
Joshua Turley L 27 22 20 108.0 69 43 23 130 79 74
Victor Alcantara R 25 38 11 88.7 62 64 14 101 66 62
Will Lamb L 27 38 2 60.3 48 42 12 67 46 43
Adam Ravenelle R 25 43 0 48.0 37 32 13 58 43 40
Jeff Thompson R 26 28 11 74.3 56 57 20 90 67 63

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Michael Fulmer 162.3 688 18.6% 6.1% .287 3.94 3.95 88 89
Daniel Norris 134.0 599 19.7% 9.7% .305 4.50 4.29 101 96
Matt Boyd 161.7 710 18.9% 7.5% .299 4.79 4.61 107 104
Mike Fiers 147.3 643 18.8% 7.3% .293 4.70 4.71 106 106
Artie Lewicki 125.7 554 15.5% 6.7% .304 4.66 4.49 104 101
Jordan Zimmermann 142.3 623 15.6% 5.5% .301 4.81 4.60 108 104
Grayson Long 119.3 536 17.0% 9.7% .299 4.68 4.75 105 107
Blaine Hardy 65.0 279 19.0% 7.2% .295 3.60 3.40 81 77
Shane Greene 64.0 277 24.2% 10.1% .297 3.66 3.69 82 83
Beau Burrows 117.7 528 16.1% 9.3% .298 4.90 4.80 110 108
Spencer Turnbull 98.3 450 14.9% 11.1% .300 4.85 4.83 109 108
Alex Wilson 62.3 267 15.4% 6.0% .287 3.90 3.82 88 86
Anibal Sanchez 122.7 535 20.4% 6.7% .299 4.99 4.64 112 104
Drew VerHagen 116.3 522 13.8% 8.4% .297 4.95 4.70 111 106
Matt Hall 123.3 569 17.4% 12.5% .299 5.11 5.16 115 116
Mark Montgomery 57.0 248 22.2% 9.3% .294 4.11 4.14 92 93
Logan Kensing 59.3 264 15.2% 9.5% .297 4.10 4.05 92 91
Joe Jimenez 49.7 215 25.1% 10.2% .298 3.81 3.68 85 83
Bryan Garcia 48.3 210 26.2% 10.5% .298 4.10 3.86 92 87
Chad Bell 95.0 431 17.9% 10.2% .305 5.02 4.77 113 107
Gregory Soto 100.0 476 17.6% 16.2% .301 5.22 5.17 117 116
Zac Reininger 66.0 291 16.5% 8.6% .292 4.36 4.26 98 96
Franklin Perez 78.7 355 15.5% 9.3% .299 5.03 5.03 113 113
Tyler Alexander 136.0 595 14.1% 4.2% .301 5.29 5.11 119 115
A.J. Ladwig 137.0 608 11.5% 4.1% .308 5.39 5.14 121 115
Bruce Rondon 52.7 238 24.8% 13.9% .304 4.44 4.03 100 91
Daniel Stumpf 56.3 247 20.6% 8.5% .299 4.47 4.36 100 98
Eduardo Jimenez 47.0 208 19.2% 9.6% .295 4.40 4.52 99 102
Edward Mujica 52.0 222 16.7% 3.6% .295 4.50 4.45 101 100
Kevin Comer 64.0 288 21.5% 11.1% .308 4.64 4.49 104 101
Buck Farmer 143.0 640 18.3% 7.8% .304 5.54 5.26 124 118
Gerson Moreno 49.3 228 21.1% 14.9% .297 4.74 4.72 106 106
Warwick Saupold 96.3 443 14.9% 10.6% .302 5.33 5.13 120 115
Jairo Labourt 62.7 296 19.6% 17.2% .291 4.88 4.88 110 110
James Russell 49.3 220 14.5% 6.8% .296 5.29 5.20 119 117
Arcenio Leon 42.0 192 16.7% 12.0% .292 4.93 4.82 111 108
Sean Donatello 54.3 243 14.8% 7.4% .303 4.97 4.85 112 109
Angel Nesbitt 46.0 210 19.5% 11.4% .304 5.09 5.05 114 113
Johnny Barbato 64.0 291 19.9% 10.7% .305 5.20 5.17 117 116
Enrique Burgos 47.3 221 22.2% 14.9% .305 5.13 4.83 115 108
Ryan Carpenter 131.3 584 18.7% 6.7% .303 5.69 5.52 128 124
Mark Ecker 54.7 247 21.9% 11.3% .296 5.27 5.21 118 117
Paul Voelker 42.0 188 22.9% 10.1% .302 5.36 5.01 120 113
Sandy Baez 93.3 426 15.5% 8.7% .300 5.98 5.91 134 133
Anthony Vasquez 135.7 616 12.2% 7.3% .298 5.90 5.67 133 127
Matt Crouse 119.7 551 11.1% 8.3% .299 5.94 5.83 133 131
Phillippe Aumont 42.0 208 18.3% 18.3% .301 6.43 6.37 144 143
Kurt Spomer 51.7 240 12.1% 10.4% .293 5.92 5.75 133 129
Joshua Turley 108.0 497 13.9% 8.7% .301 6.17 6.01 138 135
Victor Alcantara 88.7 431 14.4% 14.8% .305 6.29 6.18 141 139
Will Lamb 60.3 290 16.6% 14.5% .299 6.41 6.44 144 145
Adam Ravenelle 48.0 234 15.8% 13.7% .302 7.50 7.32 168 165
Jeff Thompson 74.3 370 15.1% 15.4% .302 7.63 7.65 171 172

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Michael Fulmer 162.3 7.10 2.33 1.00 111 2.9 Jon Garland
Daniel Norris 134.0 7.93 3.90 1.07 98 1.6 Bill Krueger
Matt Boyd 161.7 7.46 2.95 1.39 92 1.5 Scott Sauerbeck
Mike Fiers 147.3 7.39 2.87 1.47 93 1.4 Ron Darling
Artie Lewicki 125.7 6.16 2.65 1.15 95 1.4 Cha-Seung Baek
Jordan Zimmermann 142.3 6.13 2.15 1.39 91 1.2 Mickey Weston
Grayson Long 119.3 6.86 3.92 1.13 93 1.2 Charlie Haeger
Blaine Hardy 65.0 7.34 2.77 0.69 123 1.0 Juan Agosto
Shane Greene 64.0 9.42 3.94 0.84 121 1.0 Bryce Florie
Beau Burrows 117.7 6.50 3.75 1.15 89 0.9 Randy Hennis
Spencer Turnbull 98.3 6.13 4.58 0.92 91 0.9 Rick Berg
Alex Wilson 62.3 5.92 2.31 0.87 113 0.8 Kent Tekulve
Anibal Sanchez 122.7 8.00 2.64 1.61 88 0.8 Mike Smithson
Drew VerHagen 116.3 5.57 3.40 1.08 89 0.8 Tommie Sisk
Matt Hall 123.3 7.22 5.18 1.17 86 0.8 Greg Kubes
Mark Montgomery 57.0 8.68 3.63 1.11 107 0.7 Brandon Puffer
Logan Kensing 59.3 6.07 3.79 0.61 108 0.7 Rube Ehrhardt
Joe Jimenez 49.7 9.79 3.99 0.91 116 0.6 Kevin Barry
Bryan Garcia 48.3 10.24 4.10 1.12 108 0.5 Ryan Bukvich
Chad Bell 95.0 7.29 4.17 1.23 88 0.5 Matt White
Gregory Soto 100.0 7.56 6.93 0.81 85 0.5 Phil Dumatrait
Zac Reininger 66.0 6.55 3.41 0.95 101 0.5 Robert Tenenini
Franklin Perez 78.7 6.29 3.78 1.26 86 0.5 Geno Morones
Tyler Alexander 136.0 5.56 1.65 1.72 82 0.5 Randy Leek
A.J. Ladwig 137.0 4.60 1.64 1.58 82 0.5 Heath Totten
Bruce Rondon 52.7 10.08 5.64 0.85 99 0.4 Justin Kaye
Daniel Stumpf 56.3 8.15 3.36 1.28 99 0.4 Randy Choate
Eduardo Jimenez 47.0 7.66 3.83 1.15 100 0.4 Jim Winn
Edward Mujica 52.0 6.40 1.38 1.56 98 0.3 Eddie Fisher
Kevin Comer 64.0 8.72 4.50 1.13 95 0.3 Anthony Chavez
Buck Farmer 143.0 7.36 3.15 1.76 80 0.2 Rod Nichols
Gerson Moreno 49.3 8.76 6.20 0.91 93 0.2 Brad Voyles
Warwick Saupold 96.3 6.17 4.39 1.21 83 0.2 Jamie Arnold
Jairo Labourt 62.7 8.33 7.32 0.72 90 0.1 Scott Wiggins
James Russell 49.3 5.84 2.74 1.64 82 0.1 Stubby Overmire
Arcenio Leon 42.0 6.86 4.93 1.07 88 0.0 Gary Wagner
Sean Donatello 54.3 5.96 2.98 1.33 88 0.0 Scott Rose
Angel Nesbitt 46.0 8.02 4.70 1.37 87 0.0 Ryan Baker
Johnny Barbato 64.0 8.16 4.36 1.55 84 0.0 David Aardsma
Enrique Burgos 47.3 9.32 6.27 1.14 85 -0.1 Bob Gibson
Ryan Carpenter 131.3 7.47 2.67 2.06 77 -0.1 Buddy Groom
Mark Ecker 54.7 8.89 4.61 1.65 84 -0.1 Antonio Osuna
Paul Voelker 42.0 9.21 4.07 1.71 82 -0.1 Don Cooper
Sandy Baez 93.3 6.36 3.57 1.93 74 -0.3 Brian Ahern
Anthony Vasquez 135.7 4.98 2.99 1.72 75 -0.3 Andrew Lorraine
Matt Crouse 119.7 4.59 3.46 1.65 74 -0.3 John Shea
Phillippe Aumont 42.0 8.14 8.14 1.50 68 -0.4 Steve Green
Kurt Spomer 51.7 5.05 4.35 1.57 75 -0.5 Ed Sprague
Joshua Turley 108.0 5.75 3.58 1.92 72 -0.5 Chris Roberts
Victor Alcantara 88.7 6.29 6.50 1.42 70 -0.7 Ernie Delgado
Will Lamb 60.3 7.16 6.27 1.79 69 -0.8 Justin Lamber
Adam Ravenelle 48.0 6.94 6.00 2.44 59 -1.3 Mark Pedersen
Jeff Thompson 74.3 6.78 6.90 2.42 58 -1.7 Mumba Rivera

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Pinstripe Wizard
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Pinstripe Wizard

Gonna be honest, it’s better than I excepted.