2018 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
One will notice, upon a cursory examination of the projections below, that five of the Royals’ position players are forecast to produce roughly two or more wins in 2018. A closer inspection of the names attached to those figures, however, reveals that three of them — Lorenzo Cain (579 PA, 3.1 zWAR), Eric Hosmer (654, 1.9), and Mike Moustakas (559, 2.5) — appear here not because they’re currently employed by the Royals, but rather because they were formerly employed by the Royals, have been granted free agency, and simply remain unsigned as of January 8th.

Indeed, of the players currently under contract with the club, only Whit Merrifield (648, 2.5) and Salvador Perez (525, 2.6) are projected to record more than two wins next season. Perhaps more remarkably, ZiPS calls for only a single other hitter, Alex Gordon (498, 1.4), to cross even the one-win threshold. Five of the club’s most likely starting nine, meanwhile, feature WAR projections that round to zero. As presently constructed, this team appears almost to be an experiment designed to test the validity of “replacement level” as a concept.

Of some interest here, in a way that isn’t wholly relevant to the Royals, is ZiPS’ assessment of Eric Hosmer. On Friday, Craig Edwards endeavored to give Scott Boras the benefit of the doubt in the latter’s appraisal of Hosmer’s value. With a number of caveats and conditions, he was nearly able to support Boras’s claims with logic, but even that optimistic calculus was based on the assumption that Hosmer is at least a three-win player right now. Dan Szymborski’s model suggests that isn’t the case.

Pitchers
For the second straight year, it’s necessary for this author to observe uneasily that a certain club’s rotation might look more impressive were it not for the loss of one of its constituents. Last year, that club was the Marlins; this year, the Royals. No, Yordano Ventura wasn’t the equal of Jose Fernandez, but he’d produced three average seasons entering 2017, possessed a live arm, and had the benefit of youth.

In Ventura’s absence, Danny Duffy (157.1, 2.7) played the role of staff ace admirably this past season, producing more than three wins in 2017. ZiPS calls for another better-than-average campaign. Unfortunately, there’s little substance behind the left-hander. Jason Hammel (150.2, 1.1), Jake Junis (154.1, 0.8), Nate Karns (93.1, 0.9), and Ian Kennedy (145.2, 0.8) all profile more or less as fifth starters. Unfortunately, only one of them can technically occupy that role, while the others are miscast in a different one.

As for the bullpen, a version of Kelvin Herrera (60.0 IP, 88 ERA-, 0.7 zWAR) remains to throw high-leverage innings. Ryan Buchter (57.0, 82, 0.7) is also the recipient of a promising forecast. No other reliever is projected to produce a 90 ERA- or lower, however.

Bench/Prospects
Infielder Hunter Dozier (456 PA, -0.5 zWAR) missed a lot of the 2017 season due to injury but is a candidate to carve out some sort of role with the big-league club this next season. Nicky Lopez (559, 0.7) probably isn’t likely to carve out a role with the big-league club. He does receive the top WAR projection, however, among all rookie-eligible Royals.

Right-hander Trevor Oaks (140.1, 2.0 zWAR) isn’t merely one of the best pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below, he’s one of the club’s best pitchers period — according to ZiPS, at least. Received in the deal that sent Scott Alexander to the Dodgers, Oaks has a real argument for a place in the Kansas City rotation — according to ZiPS, at least.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Lorenzo Cain R 32 CF 579 74 149 27 4 11 55 22 4
Salvador Perez R 28 C 525 56 128 25 1 23 73 1 0
Mike Moustakas L 29 3B 559 65 137 26 1 28 77 0 1
Whit Merrifield R 29 2B 648 78 170 36 5 13 68 28 9
Eric Hosmer L 28 1B 654 86 167 30 2 22 94 6 2
Alex Gordon L 34 LF 498 55 103 20 1 13 48 6 3
Raul Mondesi Jr. B 22 2B 459 49 101 18 6 13 52 26 5
Nicky Lopez L 23 SS 559 57 128 16 6 5 39 17 10
Melky Cabrera B 33 LF 632 69 169 36 3 12 79 2 1
Cheslor Cuthbert R 25 3B 470 46 107 22 2 12 50 2 1
Cam Gallagher R 25 C 342 32 70 13 0 5 30 1 1
Dean Anna L 31 2B 429 44 94 16 2 3 32 4 4
Alcides Escobar R 31 SS 633 68 155 29 5 6 52 10 6
Jorge Soler R 26 RF 410 49 82 18 1 16 51 1 0
Erick Mejia B 23 SS 530 55 115 19 6 6 39 21 7
Ramon Torres B 25 SS 480 47 116 17 2 5 35 16 8
Brandon Moss L 34 1B 417 46 82 16 1 20 54 1 0
Jorge Bonifacio R 25 RF 517 57 110 20 3 16 53 3 2
Meibrys Viloria L 21 C 402 38 81 20 1 7 37 3 3
Paulo Orlando R 32 RF 384 38 90 16 3 5 31 9 4
Drew Butera R 34 C 151 15 31 5 1 3 12 0 0
Cody Asche L 28 LF 426 46 92 22 1 12 48 3 1
Donnie Dewees L 24 CF 529 53 110 21 6 7 45 17 7
Allan de San Miguel R 30 C 143 12 27 6 0 2 10 0 1
Mauricio Ramos R 26 3B 467 42 102 18 2 10 43 1 2
Brayan Pena B 36 C 226 14 54 9 0 1 13 1 1
Corey Toups R 25 2B 478 50 94 22 3 8 38 13 3
Garin Cecchini L 27 3B 408 38 88 18 2 6 34 6 3
Zach Walters B 28 1B 319 33 67 15 2 11 38 2 1
Hunter Dozier R 26 3B 456 49 86 23 1 12 44 5 2
Billy Burns B 28 CF 491 52 108 15 4 1 25 24 8
Frank Schwindel R 26 1B 539 56 133 30 1 17 64 0 1
Ruben Sosa B 27 2B 318 32 64 11 6 3 26 15 5
Ryan O’Hearn L 24 1B 555 59 114 25 2 20 61 2 2
Bubba Starling R 25 CF 397 37 74 17 2 8 32 6 3
Anderson Miller L 24 RF 481 43 97 18 3 8 39 10 3
Parker Morin L 26 C 205 16 36 7 1 2 15 0 0
Samir Duenez L 22 1B 589 61 136 26 4 15 67 11 4
Jack Lopez R 25 2B 459 39 91 14 2 6 33 13 9
Terrance Gore R 27 CF 275 26 51 4 1 0 12 25 5
Chase Vallot R 21 C 376 38 55 15 0 13 38 0 0
Logan Moon R 26 RF 405 32 78 15 2 4 28 6 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Lorenzo Cain 579 6.9% 16.8% .128 .324 .281 .335 .409 .320 97
Salvador Perez 525 3.6% 18.5% .193 .276 .258 .290 .451 .310 90
Mike Moustakas 559 6.3% 15.0% .218 .268 .267 .317 .485 .335 107
Whit Merrifield 648 4.8% 15.3% .140 .315 .281 .317 .421 .315 93
Eric Hosmer 654 9.2% 17.1% .170 .316 .284 .349 .453 .342 112
Alex Gordon 498 9.4% 24.3% .140 .295 .236 .324 .376 .305 86
Raul Mondesi Jr. 459 4.4% 26.8% .165 .308 .242 .280 .407 .290 76
Nicky Lopez 559 6.4% 10.9% .084 .275 .250 .306 .334 .281 70
Melky Cabrera 632 5.5% 10.6% .133 .305 .288 .327 .421 .319 96
Cheslor Cuthbert 470 6.6% 20.0% .143 .287 .247 .296 .389 .295 80
Cam Gallagher 342 6.4% 14.3% .089 .247 .223 .274 .312 .256 53
Dean Anna 429 8.6% 14.5% .076 .283 .245 .315 .320 .283 71
Alcides Escobar 633 3.2% 15.0% .096 .299 .261 .288 .356 .277 67
Jorge Soler 410 11.2% 29.8% .190 .296 .229 .320 .419 .317 94
Erick Mejia 530 6.6% 24.2% .101 .307 .236 .289 .337 .273 64
Ramon Torres 480 4.2% 13.8% .080 .291 .258 .291 .338 .274 65
Brandon Moss 417 9.1% 31.2% .210 .276 .220 .297 .430 .309 89
Jorge Bonifacio 517 7.2% 27.5% .157 .297 .233 .293 .390 .294 79
Meibrys Viloria 402 4.7% 24.4% .115 .274 .217 .263 .332 .259 55
Paulo Orlando 384 3.6% 21.1% .102 .306 .249 .283 .351 .273 65
Drew Butera 151 6.6% 23.8% .116 .283 .225 .282 .341 .272 64
Cody Asche 426 8.5% 25.6% .156 .301 .239 .308 .395 .302 84
Donnie Dewees 529 5.9% 19.7% .111 .272 .226 .276 .337 .265 59
Allan de San Miguel 143 5.6% 25.2% .092 .266 .206 .266 .298 .250 49
Mauricio Ramos 467 3.0% 24.6% .118 .288 .231 .266 .348 .264 59
Brayan Pena 226 5.3% 9.3% .057 .279 .257 .298 .314 .270 62
Corey Toups 478 7.3% 29.9% .121 .303 .218 .284 .339 .272 63
Garin Cecchini 408 5.4% 21.6% .106 .286 .233 .278 .339 .266 60
Zach Walters 319 5.0% 27.0% .175 .276 .226 .267 .401 .282 71
Hunter Dozier 456 7.7% 33.6% .147 .292 .207 .272 .353 .271 63
Billy Burns 491 6.3% 16.7% .058 .292 .241 .295 .299 .263 57
Frank Schwindel 539 2.2% 19.1% .160 .287 .256 .275 .415 .291 77
Ruben Sosa 318 8.2% 24.5% .113 .299 .226 .294 .339 .276 67
Ryan O’Hearn 555 7.7% 31.4% .176 .298 .225 .287 .401 .294 79
Bubba Starling 397 5.3% 32.0% .123 .282 .202 .253 .324 .251 50
Anderson Miller 481 6.0% 29.1% .107 .296 .217 .267 .324 .257 54
Parker Morin 205 4.4% 28.8% .079 .258 .188 .230 .267 .219 27
Samir Duenez 589 4.8% 21.6% .142 .290 .244 .282 .386 .286 73
Jack Lopez 459 3.9% 25.3% .084 .277 .213 .252 .297 .240 42
Terrance Gore 275 5.8% 24.7% .024 .283 .206 .262 .231 .225 32
Chase Vallot 376 10.9% 44.9% .167 .290 .170 .277 .336 .272 63
Logan Moon 405 4.7% 32.8% .082 .302 .205 .244 .287 .232 37

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Lorenzo Cain 579 5.4 99 9 3.1 Mike Kreevich
Salvador Perez 525 4.8 95 5 2.6 Benito Santiago
Mike Moustakas 559 5.6 112 -1 2.5 Graig Nettles
Whit Merrifield 648 5.2 96 3 2.5 Carlos Garcia
Eric Hosmer 654 6.0 114 -2 1.9 Carlos May
Alex Gordon 498 4.3 88 10 1.4 Derek Bell
Raul Mondesi Jr. 459 4.5 82 1 0.9 Ramon Caraballo
Nicky Lopez 559 3.6 73 2 0.7 Jonathan Herrera
Melky Cabrera 632 5.2 99 -7 0.6 Shannon Stewart
Cheslor Cuthbert 470 4.1 83 -3 0.4 Bobby Holley
Cam Gallagher 342 2.9 57 5 0.4 Gary Bennett
Dean Anna 429 3.5 72 3 0.3 Bobby Young
Alcides Escobar 633 3.7 72 -1 0.3 Pat Meares
Jorge Soler 410 4.7 97 -5 0.3 Jeff Larish
Erick Mejia 530 3.6 68 -1 0.2 Bob Meacham
Ramon Torres 480 3.6 69 0 0.2 Fernando Cortez
Brandon Moss 417 4.5 93 -1 0.1 Lee Stevens
Jorge Bonifacio 517 4.0 82 0 0.0 Brock Peterson
Meibrys Viloria 402 2.9 59 0 0.0 Willie Morales
Paulo Orlando 384 3.6 69 6 -0.1 Rufino Linares
Drew Butera 151 3.3 67 -3 -0.1 Mike Matheny
Cody Asche 426 4.3 87 -4 -0.1 Jeremy Slayden
Donnie Dewees 529 3.3 64 2 -0.3 Jesus Marquez
Allan de San Miguel 143 2.5 52 -1 -0.3 Charlie Greene
Mauricio Ramos 467 3.2 64 3 -0.3 Travis Hanson
Brayan Pena 226 3.3 65 -5 -0.3 Raul Chavez
Corey Toups 478 3.5 67 -3 -0.4 Bert Pena
Garin Cecchini 408 3.3 65 0 -0.4 Chris Lemonis
Zach Walters 319 3.7 76 2 -0.4 Greg Thomas
Hunter Dozier 456 3.3 67 -3 -0.5 Sean Mcnally
Billy Burns 491 3.3 61 -1 -0.5 Mike Spidale
Frank Schwindel 539 4.1 82 0 -0.5 Reggie Montgomery
Ruben Sosa 318 3.7 70 -6 -0.6 Steve Hecht
Ryan O’Hearn 555 4.0 83 -2 -0.6 John-Ford Griffin
Bubba Starling 397 2.8 54 2 -0.7 Kris Harvey
Anderson Miller 481 3.1 58 6 -0.8 Darrin Jackson
Parker Morin 205 2.0 34 -2 -0.9 Dave Ullery
Samir Duenez 589 3.9 77 -2 -1.0 Adrian Gonzalez
Jack Lopez 459 2.4 47 4 -1.1 Abigail Sandoval
Terrance Gore 275 2.7 35 -3 -1.2 Pedro Powell
Chase Vallot 376 3.0 64 -17 -1.3 Todd Pratt
Logan Moon 405 2.4 42 7 -1.4 Martin Foley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Danny Duffy L 29 27 27 157.3 143 44 19 149 71 66
Trevor Oaks R 25 24 24 140.3 86 25 16 156 67 63
Jason Vargas L 35 25 25 139.3 107 40 22 147 75 70
Jason Hammel R 35 27 27 150.7 122 40 25 160 82 77
Nate Karns R 30 19 17 93.3 96 38 14 89 49 46
Ian Kennedy R 33 27 27 145.7 129 52 27 146 82 77
Jake Junis R 25 30 27 154.3 131 37 30 168 90 84
Ryan Buchter L 31 63 0 57.0 59 26 6 48 25 23
Kelvin Herrera R 28 65 0 60.0 62 21 7 58 28 26
Wily Peralta R 29 29 19 116.0 86 44 16 129 66 62
Brian Flynn L 28 35 3 58.7 46 21 6 59 28 26
Brandon Maurer R 27 68 0 64.0 56 19 7 64 31 29
Pedro Fernandez R 24 35 5 66.0 48 26 7 68 34 32
Peter Moylan R 39 59 0 45.3 36 19 3 43 20 19
Trevor Cahill R 30 36 11 81.7 79 40 11 81 44 41
Brad Keller R 22 25 25 123.0 78 47 15 138 72 67
Sam Gaviglio R 28 27 24 133.3 85 36 22 150 78 73
Eric Stout L 25 45 1 66.3 46 29 5 68 33 31
Onelki Garcia L 28 23 10 79.7 58 35 9 85 44 41
Richard Lovelady L 22 63 0 63.0 56 28 7 61 31 29
Eric Skoglund L 25 25 24 120.0 90 39 20 133 72 67
Scott Barlow R 25 25 24 119.0 107 63 18 122 71 66
Jake Kalish L 26 29 10 91.0 59 29 13 101 51 48
Kyle Zimmer R 26 17 5 40.7 36 19 5 40 21 20
Seth Maness R 29 41 0 56.7 31 11 7 66 29 27
Tim Hill L 28 40 0 68.3 55 31 8 70 36 34
Miguel Almonte R 25 27 13 68.7 58 34 10 72 41 38
Jonathan Dziedzic L 27 19 19 94.3 64 39 14 106 58 54
Glenn Sparkman R 26 16 11 52.7 33 17 9 61 32 30
Kevin Lenik R 26 19 0 33.7 27 19 3 34 18 17
Yender Caramo R 26 24 10 83.3 28 13 13 105 51 48
Kevin McCarthy R 26 56 0 71.7 43 25 10 81 41 38
Sam Selman L 27 40 0 57.3 64 44 6 51 32 30
Burch Smith R 28 16 15 63.0 50 32 10 68 40 37
Chris Withrow R 29 33 0 27.0 25 19 3 25 16 15
Malcom Culver R 28 38 0 50.7 38 26 6 54 30 28
Jake Newberry R 23 43 0 61.3 38 28 8 68 36 34
Foster Griffin L 22 27 27 137.3 90 60 23 159 90 84
Brayan Pena R 36 5 0 4.0 1 6 1 5 5 5
Josh Staumont R 24 27 25 115.7 113 110 14 111 78 73
Andres Machado R 25 28 15 99.7 73 38 19 115 66 62
Mike Broadway R 31 38 3 46.3 36 19 10 53 32 30
Matt Tenuta L 24 28 12 90.0 57 39 17 106 62 58
Mark Peterson R 27 37 0 57.7 37 29 9 66 39 36
Emilio Ogando L 24 27 26 136.7 78 51 29 165 97 91

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Danny Duffy 157.3 665 21.5% 6.6% .287 3.78 3.86 85 90
Trevor Oaks 140.3 602 14.3% 4.2% .299 4.04 4.10 91 96
Jason Vargas 139.3 605 17.7% 6.6% .289 4.52 4.58 102 107
Jason Hammel 150.7 652 18.7% 6.1% .295 4.60 4.59 104 107
Nate Karns 93.3 407 23.6% 9.3% .294 4.44 4.37 100 102
Ian Kennedy 145.7 635 20.3% 8.2% .283 4.76 4.95 107 116
Jake Junis 154.3 668 19.6% 5.5% .299 4.90 4.88 110 114
Ryan Buchter 57.0 245 24.1% 10.6% .278 3.63 3.93 82 92
Kelvin Herrera 60.0 259 23.9% 8.1% .305 3.90 3.71 88 87
Wily Peralta 116.0 521 16.5% 8.4% .305 4.81 4.68 108 109
Brian Flynn 58.7 256 18.0% 8.2% .294 3.99 4.10 90 96
Brandon Maurer 64.0 275 20.4% 6.9% .297 4.08 3.63 92 85
Pedro Fernandez 66.0 292 16.4% 8.9% .295 4.36 4.45 98 104
Peter Moylan 45.3 198 18.2% 9.6% .292 3.77 3.75 85 88
Trevor Cahill 81.7 366 21.6% 10.9% .302 4.52 4.55 102 106
Brad Keller 123.0 554 14.1% 8.5% .302 4.90 4.79 110 112
Sam Gaviglio 133.3 586 14.5% 6.1% .294 4.93 4.97 111 116
Eric Stout 66.3 296 15.5% 9.8% .297 4.21 4.20 95 98
Onelki Garcia 79.7 359 16.2% 9.7% .300 4.63 4.56 104 107
Richard Lovelady 63.0 278 20.1% 10.1% .295 4.14 4.25 93 99
Eric Skoglund 120.0 532 16.9% 7.3% .300 5.02 4.92 113 115
Scott Barlow 119.0 542 19.7% 11.6% .300 4.99 5.09 112 119
Jake Kalish 91.0 403 14.6% 7.2% .297 4.75 4.81 107 112
Kyle Zimmer 40.7 181 19.9% 10.5% .294 4.43 4.53 100 106
Seth Maness 56.7 247 12.6% 4.5% .299 4.29 4.15 97 97
Tim Hill 68.3 306 18.0% 10.1% .298 4.48 4.56 101 107
Miguel Almonte 68.7 312 18.6% 10.9% .301 4.98 5.02 112 117
Jonathan Dziedzic 94.3 428 15.0% 9.1% .301 5.15 5.13 116 120
Glenn Sparkman 52.7 236 14.0% 7.2% .299 5.13 5.27 115 123
Kevin Lenik 33.7 154 17.5% 12.3% .301 4.54 4.58 102 107
Yender Caramo 83.3 368 7.6% 3.5% .297 5.18 5.09 117 119
Kevin McCarthy 71.7 321 13.4% 7.8% .296 4.77 4.90 107 114
Sam Selman 57.3 267 24.0% 16.5% .300 4.71 4.64 106 108
Burch Smith 63.0 289 17.3% 11.1% .301 5.29 5.35 119 125
Chris Withrow 27.0 125 20.0% 15.2% .286 5.00 4.97 113 116
Malcom Culver 50.7 232 16.4% 11.2% .300 4.97 4.68 112 109
Jake Newberry 61.3 280 13.6% 10.0% .297 4.99 5.08 112 119
Foster Griffin 137.3 631 14.3% 9.5% .302 5.50 5.49 124 128
Brayan Pena 4.0 23 4.3% 26.1% .267 11.25 10.41 253 243
Josh Staumont 115.7 568 19.9% 19.4% .299 5.68 5.81 128 136
Andres Machado 99.7 452 16.2% 8.4% .304 5.60 5.47 126 128
Mike Broadway 46.3 211 17.1% 9.0% .299 5.83 5.70 131 133
Matt Tenuta 90.0 415 13.7% 9.4% .301 5.80 5.81 131 136
Mark Peterson 57.7 268 13.8% 10.8% .300 5.62 5.46 126 128
Emilio Ogando 136.7 626 12.5% 8.1% .296 5.99 6.07 135 142

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Danny Duffy 157.3 8.18 2.52 1.09 112 2.7 John Smiley
Trevor Oaks 140.3 5.52 1.60 1.03 104 2.0 Jack Russell
Jason Vargas 139.3 6.91 2.58 1.42 94 1.3 Paul Splittorff
Jason Hammel 150.7 7.29 2.39 1.49 91 1.1 Doug Linton
Nate Karns 93.3 9.26 3.66 1.35 96 0.9 Chan Ho Park
Ian Kennedy 145.7 7.97 3.21 1.67 88 0.8 Dennis Springer
Jake Junis 154.3 7.64 2.16 1.75 87 0.8 Bob Wolcott
Ryan Buchter 57.0 9.32 4.11 0.95 115 0.7 J.C. Romero
Kelvin Herrera 60.0 9.30 3.15 1.05 109 0.7 Felix Rodriguez
Wily Peralta 116.0 6.67 3.41 1.24 87 0.6 Dennis Burtt
Brian Flynn 58.7 7.06 3.22 0.92 105 0.6 Don Florence
Brandon Maurer 64.0 7.88 2.67 0.98 104 0.6 Justin Huisman
Pedro Fernandez 66.0 6.55 3.55 0.95 97 0.5 Justin Huisman
Peter Moylan 45.3 7.15 3.77 0.60 111 0.5 Ted Abernathy
Trevor Cahill 81.7 8.71 4.41 1.21 93 0.5 Mike Bumstead
Brad Keller 123.0 5.71 3.44 1.10 85 0.5 Jake Joseph
Sam Gaviglio 133.3 5.74 2.43 1.49 85 0.5 Jerry Reed
Eric Stout 66.3 6.24 3.93 0.68 101 0.5 Mike Cosgrove
Onelki Garcia 79.7 6.55 3.95 1.02 90 0.5 Hal Woodeshick
Richard Lovelady 63.0 8.00 4.00 1.00 102 0.5 Carlos Vasquez
Eric Skoglund 120.0 6.75 2.93 1.50 84 0.4 Chris Rojas
Scott Barlow 119.0 8.09 4.76 1.36 84 0.4 Matt Wright
Jake Kalish 91.0 5.84 2.87 1.29 88 0.4 Adam Flohr
Kyle Zimmer 40.7 7.97 4.20 1.11 96 0.4 Blaine Boyer
Seth Maness 56.7 4.92 1.75 1.11 98 0.3 Tom Morgan
Tim Hill 68.3 7.24 4.08 1.05 95 0.2 Carmen Cali
Miguel Almonte 68.7 7.60 4.46 1.31 85 0.2 Mike Lumley
Jonathan Dziedzic 94.3 6.11 3.72 1.34 82 0.2 John Courtright
Glenn Sparkman 52.7 5.64 2.91 1.54 83 0.1 Dicky Gonzalez
Kevin Lenik 33.7 7.22 5.08 0.80 92 0.1 Ken Wright
Yender Caramo 83.3 3.02 1.40 1.40 82 0.1 Dick Bosman
Kevin McCarthy 71.7 5.40 3.14 1.26 89 0.0 Todd Williams
Sam Selman 57.3 10.05 6.91 0.94 89 0.0 Greg McCarthy
Burch Smith 63.0 7.14 4.57 1.43 79 0.0 Michael Smith
Chris Withrow 27.0 8.33 6.33 1.00 84 -0.1 Charlie Hough
Malcom Culver 50.7 6.75 4.62 1.07 85 -0.1 Ryan Baker
Jake Newberry 61.3 5.58 4.11 1.17 84 -0.2 Scott Munter
Foster Griffin 137.3 5.90 3.93 1.51 77 -0.2 Mike Hinckley
Brayan Pena 4.0 2.25 13.50 2.25 38 -0.3 Mark Woodyard
Josh Staumont 115.7 8.79 8.56 1.09 75 -0.4 Colin McLaughlin
Andres Machado 99.7 6.59 3.43 1.72 75 -0.4 Andy Croghan
Mike Broadway 46.3 6.99 3.69 1.94 72 -0.5 Mike Sullivan
Matt Tenuta 90.0 5.70 3.90 1.70 73 -0.6 Manny Acosta
Mark Peterson 57.7 5.77 4.53 1.40 76 -0.6 Sean Green
Emilio Ogando 136.7 5.14 3.36 1.91 71 -1.0 Jason Pierson

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Brian Reinhart
Member
Member

That is a lot of zeroes in the starting lineup.

tyke
Member
tyke

A lot of pessimistic forecasts, too.