2018 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
During each of the last two offseasons, Jeff Sullivan has written a post about baseball’s best outfield. In each case, said outfield has belonged to the Los Angeles Angels — not, that is, because of a particularly notable breadth of talent, but rather due to the presence of Mike Trout (653 PA, 7.9 zWAR) on the roster. The 12-win mark typically represents the threshold those Angel outfields have transcended. The combination of Trout, Kole Calhoun (629, 2.4), and Justin Upton (607, 2.6) is forecast for 12.9 wins.

Trout’s excellence isn’t much of a surprise, of course. Much more mysterious is the near future of Shohei Ohtani (355, 0.9). ZiPS calls for the Japanese wunderkind to record a league-average batting line in his first year stateside. Combined with standard corner-outfield defense (Szymborski projects Ohtani in right field), the result is just less than a win in just more than a half-season’s worth of plate appearances. The strength of Ohtani’s forecast is his .333 BABIP, the highest mark assessed to anyone on the club. The weakness? His 31.0% strikeout rate, itself nearly the highest. Ohtani, meanwhile, is projected for a relatively modest .186 isolated-power figure. Overall, it’s less promising than his pitching forecast.

None of this, of course, addresses offseason acquisition Zack Cozart (467, 2.7) or other offseason acquisition Ian Kinsler (584, 3.0). Nor will it. Address them, that is.

Pitchers
While his offensive forecast suggests that he’s best utilized in merely a platoon or bench role, Ohtani (140.0 IP, 2.8 zWAR) earns the best marks among Angels pitchers. His strikeout rate here (26.5%) is surpassed only by the figures assessed to the club’s two most dominant relievers, Blake Parker (31.1%) and Cam Bedrosian (26.9%). And while his projected walk rate (9.5%) skews high for a starting role — only three of 58 qualifiers recorded a higher mark in 2017 — there’s a real indication here that Ohtani could succeed against major-league hitters starting right now.

How well the rest of the rotation is equipped to contend with major-league hitters is less certain. Garrett Richards (136.1, 2.0), Matt Shoemaker (113.0, 1.4), and Tyler Skaggs (97.1, 1.2) all receive average or better numbers on a rate basis. None of them provided anything like a full complement of innings in 2017, however, which surely informs their modest projections for next season. The projection for JC Ramirez (138.1, 0.8) is modest for other reasons.

Blake Parker (56.2 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) recorded just eight saves last year, but he appears to be the pitcher most qualified for high-leverage innings on this iteration of the Angels, projected by ZiPS to record an adjusted ERA that’s 25% better than league average. Jose Alvarez (61.2, 83, 0.8), Cam Bedrosian (51.1, 87, 0.6), and Jim Johnson (56.0, 87, 0.6) all fair well by the measure, too.

Bench/Prospects
Besides Ohtani, the club lacks much in the way of notable bench assistance. Neither Michael Hermosillo (502 PA, -0.3 zWAR) nor Jefry Marte (421, 0.2), for instance — the club’s likely reserves — is projected for anything much better (if better at all) than replacement level. Catcher Taylor Ward (426, 0.9) earns the top forecast among the club’s rookie-eligible prospects. The relatively anonymous Zach Houchins (547, 0.8) does alright, too.

One finds, among the pitchers, a forecast for Alex Meyer (91.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR). That’s merely what Meyer could have done in 2018: he’s expected to miss the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That leaves Andrew Heaney (87.0, 0.8) with the top forecast among pitchers excluded from the depth-chart image below.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Angels, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Mike Trout R 26 CF 653 114 152 30 5 39 102 24 6
Andrelton Simmons R 28 SS 621 65 157 29 3 9 62 13 4
Ian Kinsler R 36 2B 584 83 140 25 4 16 58 11 5
Zack Cozart R 32 3B 467 59 108 20 4 14 50 3 1
Justin Upton R 30 LF 607 81 130 28 1 31 97 13 5
Kole Calhoun L 30 RF 629 82 144 27 3 20 77 4 2
Luis Valbuena L 32 3B 406 45 80 17 1 17 56 0 2
Taylor Ward R 24 C 426 44 85 10 1 9 37 1 1
Shohei Ohtani L 23 RF 355 47 81 16 1 14 54 5 2
Martin Maldonado R 31 C 393 33 73 13 1 10 34 0 2
Zach Houchins R 25 3B 547 55 119 23 3 14 61 4 4
Jose M. Fernandez L 30 2B 404 47 94 16 0 9 41 0 2
C.J. Cron R 28 1B 478 50 112 22 2 19 72 4 2
Kaleb Cowart B 26 2B 532 58 110 24 3 11 53 15 5
Ben Revere L 30 CF 455 56 123 14 5 2 30 25 7
Curt Casali R 29 C 332 33 64 11 0 8 33 0 0
Rene Rivera R 34 C 245 18 49 9 0 8 32 0 0
Rey Navarro B 28 SS 492 47 106 21 2 7 44 4 3
Nick Franklin B 27 2B 359 37 76 14 2 9 41 8 2
Nolan Fontana L 27 2B 455 46 75 18 2 6 33 9 5
Carlos Perez R 27 C 334 32 66 15 1 6 35 3 1
Cesar Puello R 27 LF 398 48 85 17 2 11 44 15 3
Brandon Phillips R 37 2B 538 64 136 26 1 9 51 10 8
Ramon Flores L 26 RF 445 46 92 16 3 9 43 6 2
Jefry Marte R 27 1B 421 48 90 19 1 17 56 6 3
Juan Graterol R 29 C 182 16 43 8 0 2 17 0 0
Jahmai Jones R 20 CF 563 59 119 20 4 11 48 20 15
Albert Pujols R 38 DH 570 50 136 16 0 20 99 3 0
Shane Robinson R 33 CF 342 37 73 12 2 1 25 9 2
Connor Justus R 23 SS 470 44 80 14 3 5 31 9 7
Yunel Escobar R 35 3B 452 45 109 17 1 6 33 1 3
David Fletcher R 24 2B 480 44 106 17 2 3 33 15 5
Wade Wass R 26 C 301 31 51 10 1 10 30 4 2
Cliff Pennington B 34 2B 211 20 40 5 1 3 16 3 1
Eric Young Jr. B 33 LF 432 50 84 11 3 5 34 23 7
Rymer Liriano R 27 RF 511 54 103 18 2 12 51 10 6
Michael Hermosillo R 23 CF 502 52 101 19 3 9 42 22 14
Sherman Johnson L 27 2B 511 54 93 18 3 8 42 12 5
Colin Walsh B 28 2B 447 48 76 16 1 9 34 4 3
Forrestt Allday L 27 CF 334 30 64 8 0 1 17 7 7
Michael Bourn L 35 CF 371 36 77 9 4 3 25 10 5
Matt Thaiss L 23 1B 567 59 118 22 3 10 51 6 7
Dustin Ackley L 30 1B 446 47 92 19 3 8 46 3 2
Bo Way L 26 CF 475 40 95 11 3 2 28 16 13
Tim Arakawa L 25 2B 383 36 70 10 2 4 24 8 6
Brennon Lund L 23 LF 530 50 117 16 2 6 37 16 8

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Mike Trout 653 17.3% 20.7% .300 .317 .290 .421 .590 .416 167
Andrelton Simmons 621 6.1% 10.0% .108 .291 .274 .319 .382 .303 90
Ian Kinsler 584 6.5% 15.4% .151 .286 .261 .317 .412 .313 97
Zack Cozart 467 8.4% 15.8% .166 .280 .257 .322 .423 .318 100
Justin Upton 607 10.2% 30.0% .229 .302 .242 .323 .470 .335 112
Kole Calhoun 629 9.4% 20.3% .166 .298 .257 .332 .423 .325 105
Luis Valbuena 406 11.6% 25.4% .198 .267 .227 .319 .425 .318 100
Taylor Ward 426 8.9% 19.7% .103 .263 .224 .298 .327 .276 71
Shohei Ohtani 355 8.2% 31.0% .186 .333 .252 .313 .438 .318 100
Martin Maldonado 393 5.9% 25.4% .128 .259 .207 .276 .335 .266 64
Zach Houchins 547 4.9% 20.1% .139 .269 .233 .275 .372 .277 72
Jose M. Fernandez 404 7.7% 11.9% .118 .275 .258 .325 .376 .301 89
C.J. Cron 478 5.2% 22.2% .188 .290 .253 .301 .441 .314 98
Kaleb Cowart 532 7.5% 25.2% .130 .289 .227 .289 .357 .280 74
Ben Revere 455 4.2% 8.8% .070 .310 .286 .318 .356 .294 83
Curt Casali 332 9.0% 23.5% .119 .267 .218 .297 .337 .279 73
Rene Rivera 245 5.7% 28.6% .147 .277 .219 .272 .366 .272 68
Rey Navarro 492 5.9% 17.5% .101 .271 .233 .279 .335 .266 65
Nick Franklin 359 8.1% 24.0% .139 .290 .235 .302 .375 .293 83
Nolan Fontana 455 11.9% 29.7% .104 .277 .194 .295 .298 .267 65
Carlos Perez 334 6.6% 17.7% .114 .247 .216 .269 .330 .261 61
Cesar Puello 398 6.8% 25.9% .152 .303 .239 .312 .390 .305 91
Brandon Phillips 538 3.0% 12.6% .108 .291 .267 .297 .375 .288 80
Ramon Flores 445 10.3% 19.1% .126 .278 .237 .317 .362 .298 86
Jefry Marte 421 7.4% 21.6% .188 .264 .236 .299 .424 .309 94
Juan Graterol 182 2.2% 14.3% .080 .277 .247 .265 .328 .255 57
Jahmai Jones 563 5.7% 23.8% .118 .289 .230 .283 .348 .274 70
Albert Pujols 570 6.0% 13.9% .143 .267 .257 .302 .400 .298 87
Shane Robinson 342 6.1% 13.5% .061 .267 .232 .282 .293 .254 56
Connor Justus 470 8.5% 26.2% .084 .260 .193 .278 .277 .252 55
Yunel Escobar 452 7.1% 13.1% .089 .293 .263 .319 .353 .295 85
David Fletcher 480 4.4% 14.0% .067 .271 .237 .276 .304 .254 56
Wade Wass 301 7.6% 39.9% .157 .295 .191 .273 .348 .272 69
Cliff Pennington 211 8.1% 26.1% .085 .278 .212 .278 .296 .255 57
Eric Young Jr. 432 6.5% 20.6% .082 .266 .216 .279 .298 .256 58
Rymer Liriano 511 7.0% 31.9% .124 .310 .221 .282 .345 .273 70
Michael Hermosillo 502 7.4% 25.9% .117 .298 .227 .300 .345 .283 76
Sherman Johnson 511 10.2% 24.3% .106 .265 .206 .291 .313 .269 66
Colin Walsh 447 13.2% 32.0% .118 .289 .199 .308 .318 .281 74
Forrestt Allday 334 9.6% 18.9% .038 .275 .220 .306 .258 .259 60
Michael Bourn 371 7.3% 23.2% .077 .297 .229 .287 .307 .263 62
Matt Thaiss 567 8.5% 21.2% .114 .282 .231 .303 .345 .283 76
Dustin Ackley 446 7.6% 17.3% .121 .260 .228 .288 .349 .277 72
Bo Way 475 5.3% 21.3% .053 .279 .219 .268 .272 .240 47
Tim Arakawa 383 9.1% 29.2% .076 .289 .205 .279 .281 .249 53
Brennon Lund 530 5.3% 22.1% .078 .300 .239 .288 .316 .266 64

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Mike Trout 653 9.7 178 -3 7.9 Willie Mays
Andrelton Simmons 621 4.6 95 18 4.0 Rick Burleson
Ian Kinsler 584 4.8 101 9 3.0 Phil Garner
Zack Cozart 467 5.0 105 8 2.7 Marco Scutaro
Justin Upton 607 5.5 117 2 2.6 Jesse Barfield
Kole Calhoun 629 5.1 109 5 2.4 Travis Lee
Luis Valbuena 406 4.6 105 -4 1.1 Wayne Gross
Taylor Ward 426 3.4 74 2 0.9 Damian Miller
Shohei Ohtani 355 5.0 106 0 0.9 Nick Markakis
Martin Maldonado 393 3.0 70 5 0.9 Chad Moeller
Zach Houchins 547 3.5 78 6 0.8 Adam Fox
Jose M. Fernandez 404 4.3 95 -3 0.6 Tom O’Malley
C.J. Cron 478 4.8 103 -1 0.6 Rod Allen
Kaleb Cowart 532 3.7 79 1 0.6 Gookie Dawkins
Ben Revere 455 4.6 88 -5 0.6 Lance Johnson
Curt Casali 332 3.5 77 -2 0.5 B.J. Waszgis
Rene Rivera 245 3.4 76 1 0.4 Keith McDonald
Rey Navarro 492 3.2 70 3 0.4 Dean DeCillis
Nick Franklin 359 4.1 87 -3 0.4 Juan Gonzalez
Nolan Fontana 455 2.9 67 5 0.4 Ken Bonifay
Carlos Perez 334 3.1 66 1 0.3 John Purdom
Cesar Puello 398 4.6 95 -5 0.3 Jerome Walton
Brandon Phillips 538 4.0 86 -4 0.3 Cookie Rojas
Ramon Flores 445 4.1 89 -1 0.2 Jim Gosger
Jefry Marte 421 4.5 99 -2 0.2 Brick Smith
Juan Graterol 182 3.1 64 2 0.2 Jeff Smith
Jahmai Jones 563 3.3 75 2 0.2 Jamie Hoffmann
Albert Pujols 570 4.4 93 0 0.1 Ray Knight
Shane Robinson 342 3.1 61 4 0.0 Doug Dascenzo
Connor Justus 470 2.5 56 5 0.0 Jimmy Alvarez
Yunel Escobar 452 4.0 87 -8 0.0 Mark Loretta
David Fletcher 480 3.1 62 4 -0.1 Dave Myers
Wade Wass 301 3.2 72 -7 -0.2 John Orton
Cliff Pennington 211 2.9 60 0 -0.2 Dave Matranga
Eric Young Jr. 432 3.1 62 7 -0.3 Eric Fox
Rymer Liriano 511 3.3 74 4 -0.3 Wil Culmer
Michael Hermosillo 502 3.5 80 -7 -0.3 Xavier Paul
Sherman Johnson 511 3.1 69 -3 -0.3 Jason Maxwell
Colin Walsh 447 3.2 75 -7 -0.4 Jeff Patzke
Forrestt Allday 334 2.5 60 0 -0.5 Adam Bourassa
Michael Bourn 371 3.1 66 -3 -0.6 Tom Goodwin
Matt Thaiss 567 3.5 81 2 -0.6 Andy Barkett
Dustin Ackley 446 3.5 77 1 -0.7 Mike Robertson
Bo Way 475 2.3 52 6 -0.8 Rod Morris
Tim Arakawa 383 2.5 57 -2 -1.0 Taber Lee
Brennon Lund 530 3.2 69 -4 -1.4 Ryan Sweeney

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Shohei Ohtani R 23 23 23 140.0 158 57 14 120 58 54
Garrett Richards R 30 22 22 136.3 126 52 15 124 63 59
Matt Shoemaker R 31 20 20 113.0 100 28 17 113 55 51
Alex Meyer R 28 21 17 91.7 103 46 10 79 43 40
Tyler Skaggs L 26 19 19 97.3 83 32 10 97 46 43
Blake Parker R 33 62 0 56.7 73 20 6 45 21 20
Ricky Nolasco R 35 27 27 155.3 118 41 23 168 85 79
Jesse Chavez R 34 29 19 124.3 107 36 20 130 66 62
Bud Norris R 33 41 15 101.0 100 37 15 99 52 49
Andrew Heaney L 27 16 16 87.0 76 23 14 91 44 41
Jose Alvarez L 29 69 0 61.7 58 21 5 58 26 24
JC Ramirez R 29 24 24 138.3 99 46 20 147 76 71
Jim Johnson R 35 59 0 56.0 53 18 5 54 25 23
Cam Bedrosian R 26 55 0 51.3 59 19 6 46 22 21
Dayan Diaz R 29 43 0 60.0 58 25 5 56 27 25
Luke Bard R 27 41 0 63.3 63 29 6 58 29 27
Nick Tropeano R 27 17 16 86.0 76 32 14 88 47 44
Noe Ramirez R 28 48 0 59.7 60 24 7 55 28 26
Deolis Guerra R 29 46 0 57.7 52 16 8 56 27 25
Fernando Salas R 33 62 0 60.7 56 17 8 60 29 27
John Lamb L 27 19 19 96.3 76 38 14 104 55 51
Keynan Middleton R 24 72 0 70.7 74 28 11 68 35 33
Justin Miller R 31 44 0 50.7 42 14 6 51 25 23
Huston Street R 34 38 0 35.0 30 12 4 34 16 15
Jaime Barria R 21 26 26 127.3 79 33 21 146 75 70
Manny Banuelos L 27 32 13 93.7 78 52 12 92 54 50
Cody Ege L 27 34 0 49.7 48 19 7 49 25 23
Austin D. Adams R 31 42 0 45.7 39 19 5 46 22 21
Brooks Pounders R 27 43 5 68.3 64 27 10 69 37 35
Felix Pena R 28 49 0 72.0 78 28 12 68 37 35
Eduardo Paredes R 23 54 0 70.3 64 27 11 71 37 35
Blake Wood R 32 65 0 68.0 60 31 7 70 36 34
Daniel Wright R 27 26 21 122.3 79 37 20 140 75 70
Greg Mahle L 25 53 1 65.0 44 26 9 72 37 35
Abel de los Santos R 25 38 1 48.7 47 23 8 49 29 27
Adam Hofacket R 24 48 0 65.0 48 17 11 72 37 35
Parker Bridwell R 26 28 23 129.0 94 49 24 140 81 76
Nate Smith L 26 19 19 100.0 71 37 19 112 64 60
Jhondaniel Medina R 25 38 0 51.7 49 36 7 50 31 29
Osmer Morales R 25 27 20 108.3 93 44 22 117 70 65
Tyler Carpenter R 26 20 17 79.7 42 24 14 97 52 49
Andrew Bailey R 34 36 0 35.7 35 12 9 38 24 22
Alex Klonowski R 26 25 20 110.7 71 41 22 116 74 69
Luis Diaz R 26 25 21 106.3 85 47 21 118 72 67
Troy Scribner R 26 27 21 109.3 98 57 23 115 74 69
Jesus Castillo R 22 23 22 106.7 77 31 25 126 72 67
Jake Jewell R 25 27 24 124.0 71 57 23 151 89 83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Shohei Ohtani 140.0 597 26.5% 9.5% .293 3.47 3.55 82 83
Garrett Richards 136.3 585 21.5% 8.9% .280 3.89 3.93 92 91
Matt Shoemaker 113.0 480 20.8% 5.8% .290 4.06 4.17 96 97
Alex Meyer 91.7 400 25.8% 11.5% .291 3.93 3.96 93 92
Tyler Skaggs 97.3 421 19.7% 7.6% .300 3.98 3.96 94 92
Blake Parker 56.7 235 31.1% 8.5% .291 3.18 3.12 75 73
Ricky Nolasco 155.3 675 17.5% 6.1% .297 4.58 4.41 108 103
Jesse Chavez 124.3 539 19.9% 6.7% .295 4.49 4.40 106 102
Bud Norris 101.0 439 22.8% 8.4% .300 4.37 4.36 103 101
Andrew Heaney 87.0 375 20.3% 6.1% .300 4.24 4.47 100 104
Jose Alvarez 61.7 264 22.0% 8.0% .299 3.50 3.30 83 77
JC Ramirez 138.3 608 16.3% 7.6% .291 4.62 4.67 109 109
Jim Johnson 56.0 240 22.1% 7.5% .304 3.70 3.50 87 81
Cam Bedrosian 51.3 219 26.9% 8.7% .296 3.68 3.43 87 80
Dayan Diaz 60.0 261 22.2% 9.6% .300 3.75 3.71 89 86
Luke Bard 63.3 277 22.7% 10.5% .297 3.84 3.92 91 91
Nick Tropeano 86.0 378 20.1% 8.5% .292 4.60 4.69 109 109
Noe Ramirez 59.7 258 23.3% 9.3% .293 3.92 4.03 93 94
Deolis Guerra 57.7 245 21.2% 6.5% .289 3.90 4.15 92 97
Fernando Salas 60.7 259 21.6% 6.6% .294 4.01 3.72 95 87
John Lamb 96.3 431 17.6% 8.8% .301 4.76 4.78 113 111
Keynan Middleton 70.7 308 24.0% 9.1% .297 4.20 4.32 99 101
Justin Miller 50.7 217 19.4% 6.5% .294 4.09 3.99 97 93
Huston Street 35.0 151 19.9% 7.9% .286 3.86 3.79 91 88
Jaime Barria 127.3 561 14.1% 5.9% .297 4.95 5.00 117 117
Manny Banuelos 93.7 425 18.4% 12.2% .289 4.80 5.02 114 117
Cody Ege 49.7 217 22.1% 8.8% .300 4.17 4.33 98 101
Austin D. Adams 45.7 202 19.3% 9.4% .297 4.14 4.12 98 96
Brooks Pounders 68.3 301 21.3% 9.0% .299 4.61 4.46 109 104
Felix Pena 72.0 312 25.0% 9.0% .295 4.37 4.37 103 102
Eduardo Paredes 70.3 309 20.7% 8.7% .297 4.48 4.65 106 108
Blake Wood 68.0 305 19.7% 10.2% .307 4.50 4.10 106 95
Daniel Wright 122.3 544 14.5% 6.8% .299 5.15 5.07 122 118
Greg Mahle 65.0 293 15.0% 8.9% .300 4.85 4.90 115 114
Abel de los Santos 48.7 218 21.6% 10.6% .299 4.99 4.90 118 114
Adam Hofacket 65.0 284 16.9% 6.0% .299 4.85 4.85 115 113
Parker Bridwell 129.0 576 16.3% 8.5% .288 5.30 5.40 125 126
Nate Smith 100.0 449 15.8% 8.2% .293 5.40 5.47 128 127
Jhondaniel Medina 51.7 241 20.3% 14.9% .295 5.05 5.29 119 123
Osmer Morales 108.3 486 19.1% 9.1% .296 5.40 5.47 128 127
Tyler Carpenter 79.7 360 11.7% 6.7% .302 5.54 5.48 131 128
Andrew Bailey 35.7 157 22.3% 7.6% .290 5.55 5.57 131 130
Alex Klonowski 110.7 489 14.5% 8.4% .270 5.61 5.73 133 133
Luis Diaz 106.3 484 17.6% 9.7% .298 5.67 5.62 134 131
Troy Scribner 109.3 500 19.6% 11.4% .291 5.68 5.83 134 136
Jesus Castillo 106.7 477 16.1% 6.5% .300 5.65 5.80 134 135
Jake Jewell 124.0 580 12.2% 9.8% .304 6.02 6.00 142 140

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Shohei Ohtani 140.0 10.16 3.66 0.90 118 2.8 Carlos Zambrano
Garrett Richards 136.3 8.32 3.43 0.99 105 2.0 Darryl Kile
Matt Shoemaker 113.0 7.96 2.23 1.35 100 1.4 Dave Eiland
Alex Meyer 91.7 10.11 4.52 0.98 104 1.2 Bobby Witt
Tyler Skaggs 97.3 7.67 2.96 0.92 101 1.2 Ken Kravec
Blake Parker 56.7 11.59 3.18 0.95 127 1.0 Rich DeLucia
Ricky Nolasco 155.3 6.84 2.38 1.33 89 1.0 Walt Terrell
Jesse Chavez 124.3 7.75 2.61 1.45 91 0.9 Ramon Ortiz
Bud Norris 101.0 8.91 3.30 1.34 93 0.8 Tanyon Sturtze
Andrew Heaney 87.0 7.86 2.38 1.45 95 0.8 Randy Lerch
Jose Alvarez 61.7 8.46 3.06 0.73 117 0.8 Juan Agosto
JC Ramirez 138.3 6.44 2.99 1.30 88 0.8 Jim Brower
Jim Johnson 56.0 8.52 2.89 0.80 110 0.6 Dennis Lamp
Cam Bedrosian 51.3 10.34 3.33 1.05 111 0.6 Francisco Cordero
Dayan Diaz 60.0 8.70 3.75 0.75 109 0.6 Gabriel Dehoyos
Luke Bard 63.3 8.95 4.12 0.85 106 0.6 Gabriel Dehoyos
Nick Tropeano 86.0 7.95 3.35 1.47 89 0.5 Mike Morgan
Noe Ramirez 59.7 9.05 3.62 1.06 104 0.5 Ruddy Lugo
Deolis Guerra 57.7 8.12 2.50 1.25 105 0.5 Julio Mateo
Fernando Salas 60.7 8.31 2.52 1.19 102 0.5 Mark Williamson
John Lamb 96.3 7.10 3.55 1.31 86 0.4 Bill Krueger
Keynan Middleton 70.7 9.42 3.57 1.40 97 0.3 Gary Majewski
Justin Miller 50.7 7.46 2.49 1.07 100 0.3 Todd Erdos
Huston Street 35.0 7.71 3.09 1.03 106 0.3 Jim Corsi
Jaime Barria 127.3 5.58 2.33 1.48 82 0.3 Mike Lincoln
Manny Banuelos 93.7 7.49 5.00 1.15 85 0.2 Brad Weis
Cody Ege 49.7 8.70 3.44 1.27 98 0.2 Dan Ricabal
Austin D. Adams 45.7 7.69 3.74 0.99 99 0.2 Gary Wagner
Brooks Pounders 68.3 8.43 3.56 1.32 89 0.2 Anastacio Martinez
Felix Pena 72.0 9.75 3.50 1.50 92 0.1 Chad Harville
Eduardo Paredes 70.3 8.19 3.45 1.41 91 0.1 Aaron Small
Blake Wood 68.0 7.94 4.10 0.93 91 0.1 Jerry Johnson
Daniel Wright 122.3 5.81 2.72 1.47 78 -0.1 Tony Peguero
Greg Mahle 65.0 6.09 3.60 1.25 84 -0.2 Danny Zell
Abel de los Santos 48.7 8.69 4.25 1.48 82 -0.2 Pete Sikaras
Adam Hofacket 65.0 6.65 2.35 1.52 84 -0.2 Brian Woods
Parker Bridwell 129.0 6.56 3.42 1.67 77 -0.3 Jay North
Nate Smith 100.0 6.39 3.33 1.71 76 -0.3 Chris Roberts
Jhondaniel Medina 51.7 8.54 6.27 1.22 80 -0.3 Heathcliff Slocumb
Osmer Morales 108.3 7.73 3.66 1.83 76 -0.4 David Walters
Tyler Carpenter 79.7 4.74 2.71 1.58 74 -0.4 Mike Hinckley
Andrew Bailey 35.7 8.83 3.03 2.27 74 -0.4 Terry Mathews
Alex Klonowski 110.7 5.77 3.33 1.79 73 -0.6 Mike Fyhrie
Luis Diaz 106.3 7.19 3.98 1.78 72 -0.7 Jeff Schmidt
Troy Scribner 109.3 8.07 4.69 1.89 72 -0.7 Mike Romano
Jesus Castillo 106.7 6.50 2.62 2.11 71 -0.7 Dane Johnson
Jake Jewell 124.0 5.15 4.14 1.67 68 -1.3 Steve Stemle

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Daniel LB
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Daniel LB

Not every day that you see someone comped to Willie Mays…just incredible!

TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks

The one caveat is that while his defense in CF remains fringe average for now, he may be better off shifting to LF within a few years. Mays, on the other hand, played CF right up until he retired at age 42. Trout is a better hitter, though!

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

If Mike Trout had, say, Kenny Lofton’s defense, the Mays-Trout comps would be perfect.

Of course, if this means that Trout only has a shot to be the second greatest position player of the post-WWII era, I think I’ll take it.

Dknapp26
Member
Dknapp26

Trout has been the better hitter. This is why Trout is higher on the aggregate WAR/Age curve than any other player in history despite debuting at the same age as Mays. Granted, the unifying trait of all of the best players in baseball history is multiple MVP caliber seasons between age 27-35, which Trout hasn’t had (yet), but saying that Trout has a chance to be the second best player recently is like saying in December 2015 that the Warriors had a chance to have the second most wins in basketball history.

Trout is currently in the lead when placed in a H2H comparison with any other player is history… Does he have a lot of work to do to end up that way? yes, but he’s got the pole.

Werthless
Member
Werthless
DBA455
Member
Member
DBA455

I don’t think it is. Your charts give a clear one. I’ll reinforce it:

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mookie monster
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Member
mookie monster

Not for nothing, but if Mike Trout were playing in the 1960s, or the 1990s for that matter, he’d also get to stay in CF as long as he wanted, defensive decline be damned. And no one would play a 42-year-old Mays in CF in 2018.

I didn’t see Mays play and express no opinion about whether he was a better fielder than Trout, but the positional staying power is neither here nor there when comparing across eras.

TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks

True, but Mays was getting Gold Gloves in CF up until age 37, which may or may not mean anything. (I didn’t see him play either)

david k
Member
david k

I’ll go with MAY NOT mean anything. Given past award recipients, it’s clear the voters have no idea what they are doing most of the time.

Dknapp26
Member
Dknapp26

Rafael Palmeiro won the AL gold glove award for first base in 1999.

Rafael Palmeiro played 28 games at 1B and 128 games at DH in 1999.

The firmest conclusion I can possibly come to when presented with the information that a player won gold glove(s) is that he was probably capable of playing the position in the major leagues at some point in time.

pitnick
Member
pitnick

I didn’t see Mays play either, except for clips here and there, but for whatever it’s worth TZ had Mays has an otherworldly defensive centerfielder (which matches his reputation) through the age of 35, and a perfectly adequate one after that until the end of his career. If that’s real, Mays was as good at 42 as Trout was at 26.

carter
Member
carter

But that is just silly.

Dknapp26
Member
Dknapp26

an overall TZ rating isn’t necessarily comparable to different years. The stat attempts to show skill vs average at the position. In other words, Mays’ TZ ratings tell us that there was a bigger gap between Mays and average than there is between Trout and average. It doesn’t tell us that if you drop Trout into 1960, he’s worse than Mays.

We need statcast for that.

jfree
Member
jfree

Right now, I think Trout is as good as peak Mays re fielding. There is I agree a huge difference – because Mays stayed at that level for 10-12 years before he began to decline and I doubt Trout will be able to do that.

More likely, Trout will move off CF around 30 or so – but because someone younger/faster will be able to take on the defensive OF role. So we will never really get to see a true comparison. But that’s baseball