2018 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Dodger field players recorded the second-most WAR collectively in the majors this past season, and all but one (Chase Utley) of the club’s top-13 players from 2017 remains under contract for 2018. Unsurprisingly, the projections below are almost uniformly strong.

Both first baseman Cody Bellinger (607 PA, 4.4 zWAR) and shortstop Corey Seager (666, 5.7) remain subject to a Young Driver Surcharge when patronizing any of this country’s major rental-car providers. When not busy securing dependable transportation at a competitive rate, however, they occupy their time creating runs as professional ballplayers. ZiPS calls for that pair to produce roughly 10 wins just between the two of them in 2018.

If one is intent on identifying a weakness — or at least an uncertainty — within the depth chart, then left field appears to be the best candidate. Joc Pederson (475, 2.4) was optioned to Triple-A in mid-August and absent from much of the postseason, raising some questions about his job security with the present iteration of the club. Even he is forecast to produce wins at an above-average rate, however.

Pitchers
The Dodgers’ pitching staff was also one of the best in the majors this past season. As with the club’s hitting cohort, most of the principal actors from the NL championship team return in 2018. Clayton Kershaw (179.0 IP, 5.8 zWAR), unsurprisingly, receives the top projection, while three other starters — Rich Hill (115.2, 2.4), Kenta Maeda (150.2, 3.0), and Alex Wood (144.1, 2.6) — are forecast to record two or more wins. After that foursome is a surfeit of useful, if not wholly dependable, options, of which Hyun-Jin Ryu (112.2, 1.3) appears most likely to break camp as part of the rotation.

Only 12 relievers in the majors recorded two or more wins this past season. It was the same thing in 2016. In 2015, only nine of them reached the two-win threshold. All of which is to say that, while the projected win total for Kenley Jansen (63.0 IP, 55 ERA-, 2.2 zWAR) might appear modest, it’s actually pretty aggressive. The mean estimate for Jansen’s 2018 season places him among the top 10 or so pitchers by observed result. That’s impressive, which is why this entire paragraph about the Dodger bullpen is dedicated exclusively to Kenley Jansen.

Bench/Prospects
Whether it’s Austin Barnes (361 PA, 1.9 zWAR) or Yasmani Grandal (452, 2.8) who ultimately records more playing time for the Dodgers in 2018, the club is nearly certain to receive one of the league’s top contributions from a back-up catcher, as well. In the outfield, both Andrew Toles (363, 1.0) and Alex Verdugo (559, 0.9) profile as strong depth options; as left-handed batters, however, neither is a candidate to work in a platoon with Joc Pederson. Kiké Hernandez (344, 0.8) and minor leaguer Tim Locastro (550, 0.8) are both right-handed batters who’ve played all over the diamond.

Right-hander Trevor Oaks (141.0 IP, 1.8 zWAR) is absent from the top-10 lists published both by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus this offseason; nevertheless, he receives the top WAR projection among those pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below. Walker Buehler (93.2, 1.3), meanwhile, appears at the top of both those prospects lists. He’s also great and will suffice.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Corey Seager L 24 SS 666 92 175 40 3 25 99 5 2
Cody Bellinger L 22 1B 607 92 146 28 4 39 112 15 3
Justin Turner R 33 3B 515 64 131 29 1 18 73 6 1
Yasiel Puig R 27 RF 548 69 130 24 4 23 78 11 6
Yasmani Grandal B 29 C 452 48 93 19 1 22 67 1 1
Chris Taylor R 27 CF 579 73 136 30 7 14 63 16 7
Joc Pederson L 26 CF 475 63 93 21 1 22 62 9 5
Logan Forsythe R 31 2B 498 62 108 23 2 14 53 5 3
Austin Barnes R 28 C 361 44 80 17 2 7 43 8 2
Chase Utley L 39 2B 385 49 86 19 4 8 38 5 1
Andrew Toles L 26 LF 363 43 91 19 3 8 41 15 9
Curtis Granderson L 37 CF 494 69 104 23 4 17 64 5 2
Alex Verdugo L 22 CF 559 61 135 26 3 11 58 7 5
Jose Miguel Fernandez L 30 2B 405 48 96 18 0 10 44 0 2
Tim Locastro R 25 2B 550 62 128 23 4 8 47 24 8
Kiké Hernandez R 26 CF 344 42 73 18 2 11 38 3 1
Kyle Farmer R 27 C 411 41 91 22 3 7 43 2 2
Blake Gailen L 33 CF 215 24 45 10 1 7 27 3 2
Franklin Gutierrez R 35 LF 255 31 56 12 0 12 39 1 1
O’Koyea Dickson R 28 LF 444 55 98 24 1 19 65 3 2
Trayce Thompson R 27 CF 445 49 87 19 5 16 50 5 4
Rob Segedin R 29 1B 358 43 81 17 2 11 49 1 2
Travis Taijeron R 29 RF 529 62 101 27 2 21 68 1 2
D.J. Peters R 22 CF 541 63 105 23 4 19 62 3 4
Matt Beaty L 25 1B 495 52 120 23 1 10 53 3 2
Andre Ethier L 36 LF 282 27 63 12 3 7 32 1 1
Matt Kemp R 33 LF 549 64 135 29 2 23 91 3 2
Henry Ramos B 26 RF 284 30 68 12 2 7 28 3 3
Drew Jackson R 24 SS 478 51 93 16 2 6 34 17 8
Brant Whiting L 26 C 139 13 25 4 0 1 8 0 0
Max Muncy L 27 3B 389 44 76 15 2 11 40 2 3
Shawn Zarraga B 29 C 192 18 42 10 0 1 15 0 1
Errol Robinson R 23 SS 414 42 88 16 4 5 33 17 5
Tyler Holt R 29 CF 333 31 65 9 2 0 17 16 4
Brett Eibner R 29 RF 341 38 69 12 1 13 41 3 2
Angelo Mora B 25 2B 430 38 94 18 5 5 40 3 3
Edwin Rios L 24 1B 508 58 116 26 1 17 69 1 2
Luke Raley L 23 LF 518 62 111 18 8 12 53 6 2
Quincy Latimore R 29 LF 423 43 81 15 2 13 42 4 4
Johan Mieses R 22 CF 487 52 84 22 1 19 63 1 3
Erick Mejia B 23 SS 529 54 113 18 6 6 41 20 7
Michael Ahmed R 26 SS 329 31 60 10 2 5 24 8 6
Kyle Garlick R 26 LF 389 43 77 19 1 14 47 1 0
Omar Estevez R 20 SS 534 48 108 24 3 9 48 2 5
Yusniel Diaz R 21 RF 493 50 103 18 4 12 50 8 16
Peter O’Brien R 27 1B 446 50 80 18 3 24 65 0 0
Jacob Scavuzzo R 24 LF 411 42 85 17 2 13 47 4 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Corey Seager 666 8.7% 19.4% .202 .334 .293 .357 .495 .359 124
Cody Bellinger 607 10.9% 25.4% .285 .309 .272 .353 .558 .375 134
Justin Turner 515 8.9% 13.6% .189 .308 .292 .370 .481 .362 126
Yasiel Puig 548 9.9% 19.3% .208 .297 .267 .345 .475 .347 116
Yasmani Grandal 452 11.5% 26.3% .220 .276 .235 .324 .456 .333 107
Chris Taylor 579 7.9% 22.8% .163 .319 .259 .322 .422 .320 98
Joc Pederson 475 13.7% 26.9% .223 .282 .233 .348 .455 .344 114
Logan Forsythe 498 10.8% 23.1% .160 .306 .250 .341 .410 .326 103
Austin Barnes 361 10.8% 16.3% .133 .291 .254 .342 .387 .319 98
Chase Utley 385 7.3% 18.2% .147 .290 .249 .320 .396 .311 93
Andrew Toles 363 4.1% 21.5% .143 .322 .266 .301 .409 .303 87
Curtis Granderson 494 11.1% 22.1% .190 .282 .241 .332 .432 .327 103
Alex Verdugo 559 7.2% 13.2% .127 .288 .264 .319 .391 .306 89
Jose Miguel Fernandez 405 7.7% 11.1% .132 .276 .263 .329 .395 .310 92
Tim Locastro 550 3.8% 16.0% .110 .294 .255 .314 .365 .297 83
Kiké Hernandez 344 9.6% 23.3% .179 .284 .238 .312 .417 .311 93
Kyle Farmer 411 5.1% 17.8% .128 .275 .237 .282 .365 .278 71
Blake Gailen 215 8.8% 20.5% .171 .264 .233 .302 .404 .302 87
Franklin Gutierrez 255 8.2% 27.1% .210 .293 .245 .314 .454 .327 103
O’Koyea Dickson 444 6.5% 22.5% .205 .272 .242 .300 .447 .315 95
Trayce Thompson 445 7.0% 29.7% .188 .269 .212 .268 .400 .283 75
Rob Segedin 358 6.7% 21.8% .166 .292 .248 .307 .414 .309 92
Travis Taijeron 529 9.5% 34.6% .202 .302 .217 .304 .418 .311 93
D.J. Peters 541 7.9% 37.0% .180 .319 .215 .290 .395 .296 83
Matt Beaty 495 5.5% 15.8% .119 .292 .260 .303 .380 .294 81
Andre Ethier 282 9.2% 21.3% .155 .301 .251 .326 .406 .313 94
Matt Kemp 549 5.8% 22.4% .200 .303 .265 .306 .465 .321 99
Henry Ramos 284 5.3% 19.7% .140 .300 .258 .298 .398 .297 83
Drew Jackson 478 6.7% 26.2% .088 .287 .215 .282 .303 .260 59
Brant Whiting 139 10.1% 32.4% .058 .320 .207 .309 .264 .266 63
Max Muncy 389 10.5% 25.4% .152 .277 .222 .308 .374 .297 84
Shawn Zarraga 192 8.3% 16.7% .076 .291 .246 .309 .322 .277 70
Errol Robinson 414 6.5% 24.4% .102 .297 .230 .283 .332 .269 65
Tyler Holt 333 9.3% 23.1% .044 .298 .221 .299 .265 .258 57
Brett Eibner 341 7.6% 27.6% .170 .272 .222 .282 .392 .289 78
Angelo Mora 430 4.9% 24.7% .106 .302 .232 .271 .338 .263 61
Edwin Rios 508 4.7% 28.1% .166 .310 .244 .285 .410 .293 80
Luke Raley 518 5.4% 26.3% .148 .301 .234 .293 .382 .291 79
Quincy Latimore 423 5.9% 30.5% .148 .271 .207 .259 .355 .265 62
Johan Mieses 487 6.0% 40.0% .180 .274 .187 .246 .367 .262 60
Erick Mejia 529 6.2% 24.2% .098 .301 .232 .282 .330 .267 64
Michael Ahmed 329 9.1% 31.3% .098 .293 .203 .280 .302 .260 59
Kyle Garlick 389 6.2% 34.4% .176 .297 .215 .272 .391 .283 74
Omar Estevez 534 4.5% 25.5% .114 .276 .216 .256 .329 .253 55
Yusniel Diaz 493 6.7% 26.2% .136 .287 .226 .278 .363 .277 70
Peter O’Brien 446 5.8% 42.2% .231 .273 .193 .244 .424 .280 72
Jacob Scavuzzo 411 4.4% 32.1% .155 .295 .220 .260 .376 .271 66

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Corey Seager 666 6.8 130 4 5.7 Troy Tulowitzki
Cody Bellinger 607 7.5 143 4 4.4 Kent Hrbek
Justin Turner 515 6.9 130 5 4.3 Bill Madlock
Yasiel Puig 548 6.0 121 6 3.2 Matt Stairs
Yasmani Grandal 452 5.2 110 -1 2.8 Charles Johnson
Chris Taylor 579 5.0 101 5 2.7 Marlon Byrd
Joc Pederson 475 5.5 117 -4 2.4 Val Pascucci
Logan Forsythe 498 5.0 104 2 2.3 Junior Spivey
Austin Barnes 361 4.9 99 -1 1.9 Charlie Moore
Chase Utley 385 4.7 94 0 1.3 Shawn Gilbert
Andrew Toles 363 4.4 92 7 1.0 Bruce Fields
Curtis Granderson 494 5.1 107 -13 1.0 Steve Finley
Alex Verdugo 559 4.5 93 -6 0.9 Jeff Abbott
Jose Miguel Fernandez 405 4.6 97 -3 0.8 Tom O’Malley
Tim Locastro 550 4.3 85 -5 0.8 William Bergolla
Kiké Hernandez 344 4.6 97 -4 0.8 Jason Grabowski
Kyle Farmer 411 3.6 75 -2 0.6 Mark Parent
Blake Gailen 215 4.2 91 0 0.5 Stu Pederson
Franklin Gutierrez 255 5.0 106 -3 0.5 Wally Westlake
O’Koyea Dickson 444 4.7 100 -4 0.5 Elvin Paulino
Trayce Thompson 445 3.6 79 0 0.4 Jason Cooper
Rob Segedin 358 4.5 95 1 0.3 Rod Allen
Travis Taijeron 529 4.3 95 -6 0.3 Pat Adams
D.J. Peters 541 3.8 85 -7 0.2 Brian Rosinski
Matt Beaty 495 4.2 85 4 0.2 Randall Simon
Andre Ethier 282 4.7 99 -3 0.2 Milt Thompson
Matt Kemp 549 5.2 107 -13 0.1 Hubie Brooks
Henry Ramos 284 4.2 88 0 0.1 Andrew Locke
Drew Jackson 478 3.0 60 2 0.1 Felix Martinez
Brant Whiting 139 2.8 59 -2 -0.1 Sean McCraw
Max Muncy 389 3.9 86 -8 -0.1 Ray Giannelli
Shawn Zarraga 192 3.4 73 -4 -0.1 Alan Ashby
Errol Robinson 414 3.5 67 -4 -0.1 Juan Bell
Tyler Holt 333 3.0 56 1 -0.2 Jamal Strong
Brett Eibner 341 3.8 82 -1 -0.2 Ryan Jones
Angelo Mora 430 3.1 65 2 -0.2 Juan Melo
Edwin Rios 508 4.1 87 0 -0.3 Garret Anderson
Luke Raley 518 4.0 83 -4 -0.3 Elijah Bonaparte
Quincy Latimore 423 3.0 66 7 -0.3 John Giudice
Johan Mieses 487 2.9 65 2 -0.4 Brian Pettway
Erick Mejia 529 3.4 67 -7 -0.5 Bob Meacham
Michael Ahmed 329 2.7 59 -4 -0.6 Ross Jones
Kyle Garlick 389 3.7 78 -5 -0.7 Terry Lee
Omar Estevez 534 2.7 58 -3 -0.9 Ricky Bell
Yusniel Diaz 493 3.0 73 -1 -1.1 Rich Butler
Peter O’Brien 446 3.5 78 -5 -1.1 Fred McNair
Jacob Scavuzzo 411 3.3 71 -6 -1.2 Brandt Humphry

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Clayton Kershaw L 30 27 27 179.0 213 27 18 137 52 49
Yu Darvish R 31 28 28 169.3 207 51 20 141 65 61
Kenta Maeda R 30 29 27 150.7 149 39 17 137 63 59
Alex Wood L 27 27 24 144.3 136 41 17 135 62 58
Rich Hill L 38 23 23 115.7 137 46 14 93 48 45
Kenley Jansen R 30 63 0 63.0 92 16 6 44 17 16
Wilmer Font R 28 27 23 126.3 138 36 19 119 59 55
Trevor Oaks R 25 24 24 141.0 94 25 18 153 68 64
Walker Buehler R 23 36 19 93.7 122 42 13 79 43 40
Hyun-Jin Ryu L 31 22 21 112.7 99 33 17 117 56 52
Josh Fields R 32 58 0 56.0 65 17 5 48 21 20
Tony Watson L 33 67 0 63.7 57 17 8 60 27 25
Yadier Alvarez R 22 22 19 92.3 83 57 8 89 48 45
Justin Masterson R 33 23 20 112.3 96 56 12 112 61 57
Julio Urias L 21 12 12 55.3 46 24 5 53 26 24
Ross Stripling R 28 39 10 89.7 79 28 13 90 46 43
Adam Liberatore L 31 43 0 38.0 44 13 4 32 15 14
Luis Avilan L 28 65 0 53.7 54 23 5 49 24 22
Pedro Baez R 30 66 0 63.0 67 23 9 57 29 27
Edward Paredes L 31 42 0 45.0 56 23 5 37 19 18
Joe Broussard R 27 46 0 65.3 66 20 9 63 31 29
Brock Stewart R 26 25 17 89.7 90 30 17 89 49 46
Jesen Therrien R 25 52 0 68.7 66 25 9 66 33 31
Yaisel Sierra R 27 42 0 68.0 66 33 7 65 33 31
Shea Spitzbarth R 23 43 0 66.0 66 27 8 64 32 30
Jordan Jankowski R 29 47 0 55.0 68 36 6 46 27 25
Madison Younginer R 27 43 2 62.7 60 29 8 61 32 30
Andrew Sopko R 23 24 23 108.7 77 47 15 119 63 59
Tommy Layne L 33 46 0 36.0 31 20 3 34 17 16
David Hale R 30 20 16 89.0 56 25 14 101 51 48
Brian Moran L 29 27 0 30.7 33 11 4 29 15 14
Dylan Floro R 27 44 1 71.7 44 14 11 82 39 36
Yimi Garcia R 27 39 0 41.3 42 10 8 41 21 20
Tom Koehler R 32 30 23 129.0 115 55 24 133 77 72
Jeremy Bleich L 31 34 3 61.0 44 22 9 66 34 32
Dennis Santana R 22 25 20 113.7 101 63 17 115 68 64
Josh Sborz R 24 26 23 111.7 80 57 15 120 67 63
Tim Shibuya R 28 23 10 73.0 39 15 13 87 44 41
Colt Hynes L 33 31 3 55.0 40 16 9 61 31 29
Tony Cingrani L 28 54 0 47.3 43 24 7 47 26 24
Juan Noriega R 27 50 0 45.3 40 18 7 46 25 23
Pat Venditte R 33 47 0 62.0 60 32 10 59 35 33
Steve Geltz R 30 43 0 43.7 46 21 9 41 26 24
Fabio Castillo R 29 29 16 98.0 85 49 16 103 61 57
Eddie Gamboa R 33 23 18 104.3 73 60 16 109 67 63
Jair Jurrjens R 32 14 13 70.3 43 26 13 83 48 45
Corey Copping R 24 47 0 58.3 52 38 10 60 37 35
Daniel Corcino R 27 26 10 72.0 64 41 17 78 52 49

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Clayton Kershaw 179.0 701 30.4% 3.9% .270 2.46 2.55 59 60
Yu Darvish 169.3 700 29.6% 7.3% .290 3.24 3.22 78 76
Kenta Maeda 150.7 628 23.7% 6.2% .288 3.52 3.52 85 83
Alex Wood 144.3 609 22.3% 6.7% .288 3.62 3.68 87 86
Rich Hill 115.7 486 28.2% 9.5% .281 3.50 3.74 84 88
Kenley Jansen 63.0 249 36.9% 6.4% .286 2.29 2.28 55 54
Wilmer Font 126.3 534 25.8% 6.7% .299 3.92 3.93 95 92
Trevor Oaks 141.0 601 15.6% 4.2% .295 4.09 4.16 99 98
Walker Buehler 93.7 402 30.3% 10.4% .299 3.84 3.80 93 89
Hyun-Jin Ryu 112.7 488 20.3% 6.8% .298 4.15 4.24 100 100
Josh Fields 56.0 233 27.9% 7.3% .297 3.21 2.85 78 67
Tony Watson 63.7 268 21.3% 6.3% .286 3.53 3.85 85 90
Yadier Alvarez 92.3 423 19.6% 13.5% .300 4.39 4.50 106 106
Justin Masterson 112.3 505 19.0% 11.1% .301 4.57 4.55 110 107
Julio Urias 55.3 243 18.9% 9.9% .289 3.90 4.03 94 95
Ross Stripling 89.7 387 20.4% 7.2% .292 4.32 4.22 104 99
Adam Liberatore 38.0 159 27.7% 8.2% .292 3.32 3.24 80 76
Luis Avilan 53.7 233 23.2% 9.9% .295 3.69 3.53 89 83
Pedro Baez 63.0 269 24.9% 8.6% .286 3.86 4.03 93 95
Edward Paredes 45.0 195 28.7% 11.8% .294 3.60 3.71 87 87
Joe Broussard 65.3 279 23.7% 7.2% .300 3.99 3.98 96 94
Brock Stewart 89.7 388 23.2% 7.7% .291 4.62 4.72 111 111
Jesen Therrien 68.7 297 22.2% 8.4% .295 4.06 4.16 98 98
Yaisel Sierra 68.0 302 21.9% 10.9% .302 4.10 4.14 99 97
Shea Spitzbarth 66.0 289 22.8% 9.3% .304 4.09 4.14 99 97
Jordan Jankowski 55.0 247 27.5% 14.6% .299 4.09 4.12 99 97
Madison Younginer 62.7 278 21.6% 10.4% .298 4.31 4.39 104 103
Andrew Sopko 108.7 492 15.7% 9.6% .301 4.89 5.03 118 118
Tommy Layne 36.0 162 19.1% 12.3% .292 4.00 4.27 96 100
David Hale 89.0 393 14.2% 6.4% .296 4.85 4.89 117 115
Brian Moran 30.7 132 25.0% 8.3% .305 4.11 3.88 99 91
Dylan Floro 71.7 311 14.1% 4.5% .297 4.52 4.64 109 109
Yimi Garcia 41.3 175 24.0% 5.7% .292 4.35 4.51 105 106
Tom Koehler 129.0 575 20.0% 9.6% .291 5.02 5.14 121 121
Jeremy Bleich 61.0 271 16.2% 8.1% .295 4.72 4.76 114 112
Dennis Santana 113.7 519 19.5% 12.1% .296 5.07 5.17 122 121
Josh Sborz 111.7 512 15.6% 11.1% .297 5.08 5.16 122 121
Tim Shibuya 73.0 321 12.1% 4.7% .296 5.05 5.19 122 122
Colt Hynes 55.0 242 16.5% 6.6% .299 4.75 4.81 114 113
Tony Cingrani 47.3 213 20.2% 11.3% .292 4.56 4.85 110 114
Juan Noriega 45.3 200 20.0% 9.0% .295 4.57 4.59 110 108
Pat Venditte 62.0 277 21.7% 11.6% .285 4.79 4.96 116 117
Steve Geltz 43.7 193 23.8% 10.9% .278 4.95 5.24 119 123
Fabio Castillo 98.0 446 19.1% 11.0% .299 5.23 5.17 126 121
Eddie Gamboa 104.3 482 15.1% 12.4% .284 5.43 5.65 131 133
Jair Jurrjens 70.3 320 13.4% 8.1% .299 5.76 5.57 139 131
Corey Copping 58.3 273 19.0% 13.9% .296 5.40 5.61 130 132
Daniel Corcino 72.0 335 19.1% 12.2% .292 6.12 6.32 148 149

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Clayton Kershaw 179.0 10.71 1.36 0.91 165 5.8 Sandy Koufax
Yu Darvish 169.3 11.00 2.71 1.06 127 4.0 Greg Maddux
Kenta Maeda 150.7 8.90 2.33 1.02 117 3.0 Kevin Brown
Alex Wood 144.3 8.48 2.56 1.06 113 2.6 Joe Magrane
Rich Hill 115.7 10.66 3.58 1.09 118 2.4 Al Leiter
Kenley Jansen 63.0 13.14 2.29 0.86 178 2.2 John Wetteland
Wilmer Font 126.3 9.83 2.56 1.35 105 1.9 Jack Armstrong
Trevor Oaks 141.0 6.00 1.60 1.15 100 1.8 Jack Russell
Walker Buehler 93.7 11.72 4.04 1.25 106 1.3 Ralph Branca
Hyun-Jin Ryu 112.7 7.91 2.64 1.36 98 1.3 Mike Jeffcoat
Josh Fields 56.0 10.45 2.73 0.80 128 1.0 Mike Maddux
Tony Watson 63.7 8.06 2.40 1.13 115 0.9 Tony Castillo
Yadier Alvarez 92.3 8.09 5.56 0.78 94 0.9 Dick Ruthven
Justin Masterson 112.3 7.69 4.49 0.96 90 0.8 Ray Moore
Julio Urias 55.3 7.48 3.90 0.81 104 0.8 Chris Hammond
Ross Stripling 89.7 7.93 2.81 1.30 94 0.7 Laddie Renfroe
Adam Liberatore 38.0 10.42 3.08 0.95 124 0.6 Bobby Seay
Luis Avilan 53.7 9.06 3.86 0.84 110 0.6 Tippy Martinez
Pedro Baez 63.0 9.57 3.29 1.29 106 0.6 Mike DeJean
Edward Paredes 45.0 11.20 4.60 1.00 113 0.6 Marshall Bridges
Joe Broussard 65.3 9.09 2.76 1.24 102 0.5 Matt Whiteside
Brock Stewart 89.7 9.03 3.01 1.71 88 0.5 Juan Dominguez
Jesen Therrien 68.7 8.65 3.28 1.18 100 0.4 Cary Hiles
Yaisel Sierra 68.0 8.74 4.37 0.93 99 0.4 George Smith
Shea Spitzbarth 66.0 9.00 3.68 1.09 100 0.4 Andy Shipman
Jordan Jankowski 55.0 11.13 5.89 0.98 101 0.4 Calvin Jones
Madison Younginer 62.7 8.62 4.16 1.15 96 0.3 Mike Gardner
Andrew Sopko 108.7 6.38 3.89 1.24 83 0.3 Ed Wojna
Tommy Layne 36.0 7.75 5.00 0.75 103 0.3 Marshall Bridges
David Hale 89.0 5.66 2.53 1.42 84 0.3 Heath Totten
Brian Moran 30.7 9.68 3.23 1.17 100 0.2 Mark Holzemer
Dylan Floro 71.7 5.53 1.76 1.38 91 0.1 Bill Fischer
Yimi Garcia 41.3 9.15 2.18 1.74 94 0.1 Julio Mateo
Tom Koehler 129.0 8.02 3.84 1.67 81 0.1 Jamey Wright
Jeremy Bleich 61.0 6.49 3.25 1.33 87 0.1 Tom Burgmeier
Dennis Santana 113.7 8.00 4.99 1.35 80 0.0 Rick Berg
Josh Sborz 111.7 6.45 4.59 1.21 80 0.0 Rick Berg
Tim Shibuya 73.0 4.81 1.85 1.60 82 0.0 Joe Roa
Colt Hynes 55.0 6.55 2.62 1.47 86 0.0 Mark Thurmond
Tony Cingrani 47.3 8.18 4.56 1.33 89 0.0 Lou Sleater
Juan Noriega 45.3 7.94 3.57 1.39 89 0.0 Casey Daigle
Pat Venditte 62.0 8.71 4.65 1.45 86 -0.1 Jason Grimsley
Steve Geltz 43.7 9.48 4.33 1.85 83 -0.2 Darrel Akerfelds
Fabio Castillo 98.0 7.81 4.50 1.47 78 -0.2 Luis Estrella
Eddie Gamboa 104.3 6.30 5.18 1.38 76 -0.4 Ray Moore
Jair Jurrjens 70.3 5.50 3.33 1.66 72 -0.5 R.A. Dickey
Corey Copping 58.3 8.02 5.86 1.54 75 -0.6 Heathcliff Slocumb
Daniel Corcino 72.0 8.00 5.13 2.13 66 -1.0 Mumba Rivera

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Shauncore
Member
Shauncore

I can’t begin to describe how funny the Yasiel Puig/Matt Stairs comp is

Shauncore
Member
Shauncore

Also let me say how good the Dodgers are in finding/developing talent that they turned a guy with ~500 career professional innings of “meh”, signed him to a minor league deal, and now he’s projected for two wins (Wilmer Font).

mikejunt
Member
Member
mikejunt

I wonder if Yu Darvish and Josh Fields know that they are the reincarnations of the Brothers Maddux.