2018 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Whatever the weaknesses of the 2017 Marlins, the club’s field-playing contingent wasn’t among them. Miami hitters produced 26 wins collectively this past season, the seventh-best mark in the majors — in close proximity to the figures recorded by Cubs and Nationals hitters, for example. It was an impressive group, especially relative to its youth.

It’s unlikely to be so impressive in 2018. Three of this past season’s top-five players — Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna, and MVP-winner Giancarlo Stanton — have already been traded this offseason, all in deals designed by the new front office to prioritize future and not present value (if they’re designed to prioritize on-field value, at all). The result is a much diminished squad.

J.T. Realmuto (563 PA, 2.8 zWAR) and Christian Yelich (681, 4.2) are the only two above-average players on the current edition of the club according to ZiPS. They remain employed by the Marlins for now, although neither player is certain to appear on the Opening Day roster. In their absence, Justin Bour (431, 1.6) and Starlin Castro (564, 1.8) would represent the most recognizable names.

Third baseman Brian Anderson (565, 1.8) receives a promising forecast from Dan Szymborski’s computer. If he breaks camp with the team, he has a chance of becoming its best player. Mostly, though, there are a lot of pieces here without very certain roles.

Pitchers
For as good as the Marlins’ hitting was in 2017, the pitching was that much worse, ranking third-to-last in WAR. The rotation, which experienced a huge loss following the unfortunate death of Jose Fernandez, featured a procession of replacement-level options. The 2018 edition of the club is likely to offer much of the same.

A full season of Wei-Yin Chen (113.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR) would certainly help, but a full season of Wei-Yin Chen is also improbable: the left-hander’s season ended early due to elbow discomfort and he’s currently attempting to avoid Tommy John surgery. Dan Straily (165.1, 1.0) is the only other starter projected for a win or better.

The bullpen actually features a triumvirate of effective high-leverage options in Kyle Barraclough (67.0 IP, 80 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR), Drew Steckenrider (61.1, 73, 1.3), and Brad Ziegler (49.0, 79, 0.9). They might not have many leads to protect, however, and there’s little depth behind them.

Bench/Prospects
Readers might note the positive forecast received here by Sierra and assume the Marlins did well in their deal with the Cardinals. That’s free agent Moises Sierra (407 PA, 1.2 zWAR) who appears near the top of the projection tables, though. Outfielder Magneuris Sierra (558, -0.7) is the one whom the club acquired from St. Louis. Among bench options, Rafael Ortega (505, 0.9) receives the best mark.

The farm does feature one bright spot in the person of Trevor Richards (126.0 IP, 1.2 zWAR). The right-hander was undrafted out of Drury University but represents the top pitching option for the option of those excluded from the depth-chart image below. Eric Longenhagen discussed Richards’ outlook this summer.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Christian Yelich L 26 CF 681 92 168 35 3 17 81 17 4
J.T. Realmuto R 27 C 563 62 139 27 5 13 59 10 3
Starlin Castro R 28 2B 564 61 147 26 1 18 69 3 1
Brian Anderson R 25 3B 565 65 123 23 3 15 62 1 1
Justin Bour L 30 1B 431 49 103 18 0 21 73 1 0
Martin Prado R 34 3B 470 45 118 21 2 6 48 1 1
Moises Sierra R 29 RF 407 45 98 17 2 8 39 11 4
Derek Dietrich L 28 RF 457 55 98 21 5 13 50 0 1
Rafael Ortega L 27 CF 505 55 116 21 5 5 44 19 7
Miguel Rojas R 29 SS 358 39 84 16 2 2 28 3 3
Tomas Telis B 27 C 423 47 104 19 3 5 39 4 1
Johnny Giavotella R 30 2B 436 47 107 22 3 5 41 5 3
Destin Hood R 28 LF 390 44 85 18 2 13 45 6 3
Chad Wallach R 26 C 307 33 61 14 0 8 31 1 1
Peter Mooney L 27 SS 423 41 87 15 2 3 28 2 2
Bryan Holaday R 30 C 321 30 68 14 1 8 34 0 3
Ramon Cabrera B 28 C 295 26 69 13 1 4 27 1 1
A.J. Ellis R 37 C 155 13 29 6 0 3 16 0 0
Braxton Lee L 24 CF 528 50 112 15 3 2 30 16 13
Austin Nola R 28 C 406 36 82 16 1 3 30 3 2
J.T. Riddle L 26 SS 391 37 90 14 2 5 38 2 2
Christian Colon R 29 2B 286 26 62 10 0 2 18 6 3
Cam Maron L 27 C 266 26 56 8 1 3 21 0 0
Cristhian Adames B 26 2B 437 43 92 14 4 7 33 5 5
Chris Parmelee L 30 1B 270 31 56 11 0 10 30 0 1
Ichiro Suzuki L 44 RF 250 26 60 8 2 2 19 3 1
Garrett Cooper R 27 1B 439 48 99 22 1 13 53 1 1
Matt Juengel R 28 1B 413 44 94 21 3 10 45 3 1
Isaac Galloway R 28 CF 386 40 81 12 3 10 37 16 5
Will Allen R 26 C 401 35 77 17 1 8 36 0 0
Eury Perez R 28 CF 307 29 68 10 3 2 22 22 7
Chad Hinshaw R 27 CF 321 32 57 13 2 5 24 11 6
Yefri Perez B 27 CF 403 38 79 9 4 1 21 22 10
Tyler Moore R 31 1B 248 22 47 12 0 8 30 0 0
Austin Dean R 24 LF 464 47 102 23 4 9 47 5 3
John Norwood R 25 RF 524 52 105 16 3 12 46 9 9
Grant Green R 30 3B 370 35 81 15 2 4 30 2 4
Magneuris Sierra L 22 CF 558 53 127 20 5 2 40 21 14
Yadiel Rivera R 26 SS 455 40 83 12 4 5 32 5 4
Steve Lombardozzi B 29 2B 408 37 93 13 2 1 22 9 4
Jake Elmore R 31 2B 375 32 73 9 0 1 23 9 7
Mike Aviles R 37 3B 245 19 50 7 2 1 15 1 2
J.B. Shuck L 31 LF 431 40 93 15 4 4 31 5 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Christian Yelich 681 11.2% 20.4% .155 .339 .281 .364 .436 .345 113
J.T. Realmuto 563 5.9% 17.9% .146 .307 .266 .314 .412 .310 90
Starlin Castro 564 4.6% 17.6% .155 .309 .277 .314 .432 .316 95
Brian Anderson 565 7.6% 23.9% .145 .297 .241 .308 .386 .300 84
Justin Bour 431 10.2% 20.4% .211 .296 .269 .343 .480 .345 113
Martin Prado 470 6.0% 12.6% .099 .299 .271 .317 .370 .297 82
Moises Sierra 407 6.9% 19.4% .120 .313 .262 .319 .382 .305 87
Derek Dietrich 457 7.4% 22.3% .176 .297 .247 .337 .423 .327 102
Rafael Ortega 505 7.5% 14.1% .100 .288 .252 .309 .352 .289 77
Miguel Rojas 358 6.4% 10.6% .081 .286 .259 .314 .340 .283 73
Tomas Telis 423 4.7% 11.1% .101 .287 .264 .304 .365 .289 77
Johnny Giavotella 436 6.0% 11.0% .107 .290 .268 .312 .375 .297 82
Destin Hood 390 7.4% 28.5% .171 .305 .238 .295 .409 .301 85
Chad Wallach 307 8.5% 26.1% .138 .280 .221 .294 .359 .286 75
Peter Mooney 423 8.7% 15.6% .074 .270 .230 .301 .304 .270 64
Bryan Holaday 321 4.7% 17.4% .135 .255 .231 .274 .366 .275 67
Ramon Cabrera 295 5.4% 15.6% .098 .286 .251 .293 .349 .279 70
A.J. Ellis 155 7.7% 17.4% .109 .243 .212 .294 .321 .272 66
Braxton Lee 528 7.8% 20.3% .057 .300 .236 .300 .293 .264 61
Austin Nola 406 7.9% 18.0% .074 .273 .227 .294 .301 .263 59
J.T. Riddle 391 4.9% 18.9% .090 .294 .247 .284 .337 .267 63
Christian Colon 286 7.3% 14.3% .063 .280 .242 .304 .305 .269 63
Cam Maron 266 10.2% 20.3% .081 .293 .237 .313 .318 .282 72
Cristhian Adames 437 6.9% 20.4% .109 .280 .232 .287 .341 .273 66
Chris Parmelee 270 9.3% 25.2% .170 .277 .231 .304 .401 .303 86
Ichiro Suzuki 250 7.2% 14.0% .080 .304 .264 .323 .344 .292 79
Garrett Cooper 439 6.6% 23.0% .157 .295 .246 .301 .403 .300 84
Matt Juengel 413 5.3% 18.6% .148 .280 .245 .291 .393 .293 79
Isaac Galloway 386 5.4% 27.7% .134 .293 .227 .274 .361 .273 66
Will Allen 401 5.7% 25.9% .116 .263 .209 .259 .325 .254 54
Eury Perez 307 5.2% 17.9% .080 .299 .245 .300 .325 .275 67
Chad Hinshaw 321 7.5% 30.8% .112 .284 .199 .279 .311 .262 59
Yefri Perez 403 7.2% 22.8% .055 .285 .216 .276 .271 .246 48
Tyler Moore 248 7.3% 27.8% .159 .258 .208 .267 .367 .273 66
Austin Dean 464 5.8% 22.2% .135 .289 .237 .283 .372 .281 71
John Norwood 524 7.4% 30.7% .121 .302 .220 .282 .341 .273 66
Grant Green 370 4.9% 20.3% .090 .284 .233 .271 .323 .257 56
Magneuris Sierra 558 4.7% 19.7% .069 .302 .243 .281 .312 .260 58
Yadiel Rivera 455 4.8% 28.4% .083 .268 .196 .242 .279 .228 37
Steve Lombardozzi 408 6.6% 13.7% .053 .288 .248 .299 .301 .266 61
Jake Elmore 375 9.9% 15.7% .036 .265 .222 .304 .258 .257 56
Mike Aviles 245 4.5% 14.3% .062 .257 .222 .266 .284 .241 45
J.B. Shuck 431 6.0% 9.5% .088 .251 .235 .283 .323 .263 60

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Christian Yelich 681 6.1 118 -1 4.2 Carl Yastrzemski
J.T. Realmuto 563 4.9 97 1 2.8 Terry Steinbach
Starlin Castro 564 5.1 101 -3 1.8 Jeff Kent
Brian Anderson 565 4.2 89 5 1.8 Jon Debus
Justin Bour 431 6.1 122 -1 1.6 Paul Sorrento
Martin Prado 470 4.3 88 4 1.4 Ray Knight
Moises Sierra 407 4.6 91 6 1.2 Gabe Kapler
Derek Dietrich 457 5.1 106 -5 0.9 Ryan Church
Rafael Ortega 505 4.1 81 1 0.9 Eddie Milner
Miguel Rojas 358 3.8 79 3 0.8 Marty Perez
Tomas Telis 423 4.1 82 -6 0.7 Wilbert Nieves
Johnny Giavotella 436 4.3 87 -3 0.6 Garth Iorg
Destin Hood 390 4.3 90 2 0.6 Yurendell de Caster
Chad Wallach 307 3.6 78 -2 0.5 Eric Helfand
Peter Mooney 423 3.2 67 3 0.5 Danny Solano
Bryan Holaday 321 3.3 73 1 0.5 Rick Cerone
Ramon Cabrera 295 3.6 75 -2 0.4 Maxim St. Pierre
A.J. Ellis 155 3.2 69 1 0.3 Elston Howard
Braxton Lee 528 2.9 64 9 0.3 Mike Kingery
Austin Nola 406 3.1 64 1 0.3 Dave Van Gorder
J.T. Riddle 391 3.4 69 2 0.3 Tom Veryzer
Christian Colon 286 3.3 68 4 0.3 Sergio Garcia
Cam Maron 266 3.5 74 -3 0.3 Clay Hill
Cristhian Adames 437 3.3 71 2 0.2 Chris Lombardozzi
Chris Parmelee 270 4.2 91 1 0.2 Bob Tumpane
Ichiro Suzuki 250 4.1 83 0 0.1 Milt Thompson
Garrett Cooper 439 4.3 90 0 0.1 Justin Huber
Matt Juengel 413 4.1 85 1 -0.1 Nate Grindell
Isaac Galloway 386 3.6 72 -3 -0.1 Manny Martinez
Will Allen 401 2.9 59 -2 -0.2 Joe Ayrault
Eury Perez 307 3.8 71 -5 -0.3 Gene Clines
Chad Hinshaw 321 2.9 62 0 -0.3 Pat Dobson
Yefri Perez 403 2.6 51 5 -0.4 Ed Bady
Tyler Moore 248 3.4 71 0 -0.5 Chris Widger
Austin Dean 464 3.7 77 -2 -0.5 Casey Close
John Norwood 524 3.1 70 4 -0.6 Wil Culmer
Grant Green 370 2.9 62 -1 -0.7 Steve Springer
Magneuris Sierra 558 3.0 62 0 -0.7 Leo Garcia
Yadiel Rivera 455 2.2 42 6 -0.8 Jason Bowers
Steve Lombardozzi 408 3.3 65 -8 -1.1 Doug Griffin
Jake Elmore 375 2.6 56 -5 -1.1 Don Heffner
Mike Aviles 245 2.5 51 -5 -1.2 Rey Sanchez
J.B. Shuck 431 3.2 66 -6 -1.5 Ryan Fleming

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Wei-Yin Chen L 32 20 20 113.7 92 25 18 117 56 52
Drew Steckenrider R 27 58 0 61.3 82 30 5 48 22 21
Trevor Richards R 25 25 23 126.0 104 47 16 128 65 61
Kyle Barraclough R 28 68 0 67.0 86 46 4 50 27 25
Dan Straily R 29 30 30 165.3 151 64 31 162 92 86
Brad Ziegler R 38 52 0 49.0 33 17 2 47 19 18
Zac Gallen R 22 26 26 150.7 108 44 23 166 82 77
Dillon Peters L 25 20 20 97.7 72 36 11 104 51 48
Pablo Lopez R 22 26 23 136.0 77 33 17 152 75 70
Adam Conley L 28 30 28 143.3 107 64 17 149 79 74
Jose Urena R 26 32 25 144.0 102 52 21 150 79 74
Edinson Volquez R 34 16 15 84.0 69 42 9 81 44 41
James Buckelew L 26 35 9 92.0 59 44 7 96 48 45
Merandy Gonzalez R 22 24 24 116.7 102 67 14 118 65 61
Andy Beltre R 24 42 0 51.0 51 25 4 46 22 21
Caleb Smith L 26 27 19 104.7 98 52 15 101 59 55
Justin Nicolino L 26 33 25 142.3 76 39 21 164 81 76
Vance Worley R 30 29 16 107.3 68 35 14 119 60 56
Chris O’Grady L 28 30 12 79.3 65 29 12 83 44 41
Nick Wittgren R 27 49 0 54.7 50 13 7 55 26 24
Mike Kickham L 29 24 22 120.7 79 35 19 134 70 65
Junichi Tazawa R 32 58 0 56.7 50 17 7 57 28 26
Dustin McGowan R 36 55 0 64.3 58 29 8 61 32 30
Alex Wimmers R 29 46 0 56.0 52 28 6 52 28 26
Odrisamer Despaigne R 31 33 17 110.3 74 46 13 115 63 59
Miguel del Pozo L 25 29 2 45.7 37 24 4 46 24 22
Stephen Fife R 31 16 16 77.3 51 35 10 86 45 42
Severino Gonzalez R 25 46 5 80.3 52 19 12 90 44 41
Chris Mazza R 28 26 22 114.0 63 43 16 129 68 64
Brian Ellington R 27 60 0 65.7 75 45 7 57 34 32
Kyle Lobstein L 28 28 11 83.0 59 39 11 88 49 46
Sandy Alcantara R 22 32 23 127.0 106 81 16 129 76 71
Drew Rucinski R 29 30 15 103.0 80 34 18 113 62 58
Esmerling de la Rosa R 27 39 0 51.0 43 26 6 52 28 26
Jeff Locke L 30 22 19 110.3 81 42 17 119 67 63
Kelvin Marte L 30 29 10 84.3 59 42 12 91 51 48
Brandon Barker R 25 25 18 119.3 89 51 20 128 74 69
Ryan Beckman R 28 39 0 48.0 32 30 4 50 28 26
Javy Guerra R 32 47 0 58.7 48 34 8 60 34 32
Elieser Hernandez R 23 20 15 78.0 69 35 16 84 50 47
Hunter Cervenka L 28 52 0 44.7 45 36 5 40 27 25
Daniel Schlereth L 32 32 0 30.7 24 25 3 30 19 18
Jarlin Garcia L 25 69 0 54.3 43 21 9 57 32 30
Scott Copeland R 30 24 23 122.0 80 60 19 135 78 73
Keyvius Sampson R 27 29 16 91.0 91 67 13 86 58 54
Nick Neidert R 21 24 24 113.3 78 27 24 131 73 68
Brandon Cunniff R 29 41 0 52.3 50 35 8 50 32 30
James Needy R 27 19 19 94.0 65 46 16 103 61 57
Matt Tomshaw L 29 25 23 130.7 80 37 25 154 85 79
Clayton Mortensen R 33 32 5 60.7 56 40 10 61 40 37
Tayron Guerrero R 27 40 0 41.3 49 34 7 39 27 25
Greg Nappo L 29 26 0 45.3 38 22 9 49 30 28
William Cuevas R 27 25 19 104.3 76 56 17 111 70 65
Tyler Higgins R 27 36 1 55.3 34 19 11 66 37 35
Brett Graves R 25 21 18 93.3 56 42 19 108 67 63

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Wei-Yin Chen 113.7 483 19.0% 5.2% .287 4.12 4.34 98 103
Drew Steckenrider 61.3 262 31.3% 11.5% .301 3.08 3.06 73 72
Trevor Richards 126.0 553 18.8% 8.5% .296 4.36 4.44 104 105
Kyle Barraclough 67.0 297 29.0% 15.5% .289 3.36 3.43 80 81
Dan Straily 165.3 722 20.9% 8.9% .279 4.68 5.00 111 118
Brad Ziegler 49.0 211 15.6% 8.1% .288 3.31 3.26 79 77
Zac Gallen 150.7 662 16.3% 6.6% .298 4.60 4.72 109 112
Dillon Peters 97.7 433 16.6% 8.3% .302 4.42 4.44 105 105
Pablo Lopez 136.0 593 13.0% 5.6% .295 4.63 4.55 110 108
Adam Conley 143.3 643 16.6% 10.0% .296 4.65 4.65 110 110
Jose Urena 144.0 634 16.1% 8.2% .287 4.62 4.82 110 114
Edinson Volquez 84.0 375 18.4% 11.2% .287 4.39 4.44 104 105
James Buckelew 92.0 416 14.2% 10.6% .297 4.40 4.49 104 106
Merandy Gonzalez 116.7 535 19.1% 12.5% .301 4.71 4.87 112 115
Andy Beltre 51.0 224 22.8% 11.2% .298 3.71 3.77 88 89
Caleb Smith 104.7 467 21.0% 11.1% .289 4.73 4.75 112 113
Justin Nicolino 142.3 630 12.1% 6.2% .294 4.81 4.91 114 116
Vance Worley 107.3 476 14.3% 7.4% .297 4.70 4.62 112 109
Chris O’Grady 79.3 350 18.6% 8.3% .296 4.65 4.70 110 111
Nick Wittgren 54.7 232 21.5% 5.6% .300 3.95 3.71 94 88
Mike Kickham 120.7 531 14.9% 6.6% .293 4.85 4.91 115 116
Junichi Tazawa 56.7 244 20.5% 7.0% .296 4.13 3.85 98 91
Dustin McGowan 64.3 283 20.5% 10.3% .285 4.20 4.23 100 100
Alex Wimmers 56.0 248 21.0% 11.3% .288 4.18 4.25 99 101
Odrisamer Despaigne 110.3 492 15.0% 9.4% .289 4.81 4.71 114 111
Miguel del Pozo 45.7 207 17.9% 11.6% .302 4.34 4.45 103 105
Stephen Fife 77.3 353 14.5% 9.9% .302 4.89 5.03 116 119
Severino Gonzalez 80.3 350 14.9% 5.4% .297 4.59 4.63 109 110
Chris Mazza 114.0 514 12.3% 8.4% .294 5.05 5.17 120 122
Brian Ellington 65.7 299 25.1% 15.0% .299 4.39 4.50 104 106
Kyle Lobstein 83.0 376 15.7% 10.4% .292 4.99 4.90 118 116
Sandy Alcantara 127.0 591 17.9% 13.7% .297 5.03 5.23 119 124
Drew Rucinski 103.0 456 17.5% 7.5% .299 5.07 5.04 120 119
Esmerling de la Rosa 51.0 231 18.6% 11.3% .301 4.59 4.53 109 107
Jeff Locke 110.3 492 16.5% 8.5% .293 5.14 4.83 122 114
Kelvin Marte 84.3 386 15.3% 10.9% .295 5.12 5.25 122 124
Brandon Barker 119.3 537 16.6% 9.5% .291 5.20 5.25 123 124
Ryan Beckman 48.0 224 14.3% 13.4% .297 4.87 4.85 116 115
Javy Guerra 58.7 270 17.8% 12.6% .294 4.91 5.03 117 119
Elieser Hernandez 78.0 353 19.5% 9.9% .298 5.42 5.59 129 132
Hunter Cervenka 44.7 210 21.4% 17.1% .289 5.04 5.08 120 120
Daniel Schlereth 30.7 147 16.3% 17.0% .287 5.28 5.31 125 126
Jarlin Garcia 54.3 241 17.8% 8.7% .291 4.97 5.00 118 118
Scott Copeland 122.0 561 14.3% 10.7% .293 5.39 5.47 128 129
Keyvius Sampson 91.0 426 21.4% 15.7% .291 5.34 5.32 127 126
Nick Neidert 113.3 498 15.7% 5.4% .296 5.40 5.43 128 129
Brandon Cunniff 52.3 242 20.7% 14.5% .288 5.16 5.24 123 124
James Needy 94.0 431 15.1% 10.7% .292 5.46 5.65 130 134
Matt Tomshaw 130.7 583 13.7% 6.3% .298 5.44 5.45 129 129
Clayton Mortensen 60.7 283 19.8% 14.1% .293 5.49 5.48 130 130
Tayron Guerrero 41.3 197 24.9% 17.3% .308 5.44 5.68 129 134
Greg Nappo 45.3 207 18.4% 10.6% .297 5.56 5.65 132 134
William Cuevas 104.3 480 15.8% 11.7% .289 5.61 5.60 133 133
Tyler Higgins 55.3 251 13.6% 7.6% .299 5.69 5.65 135 134
Brett Graves 93.3 430 13.0% 9.8% .290 6.07 6.15 144 146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Wei-Yin Chen 113.7 7.28 1.98 1.42 100 1.5 Brian Anderson
Drew Steckenrider 61.3 12.04 4.40 0.73 134 1.3 Jim Kern
Trevor Richards 126.0 7.43 3.36 1.14 93 1.2 Cha-Seung Baek
Kyle Barraclough 67.0 11.55 6.18 0.54 121 1.1 Jim Kern
Dan Straily 165.3 8.22 3.48 1.69 88 1.0 Les Straker
Brad Ziegler 49.0 6.06 3.12 0.37 123 0.9 Mike Marshall
Zac Gallen 150.7 6.45 2.63 1.37 88 0.9 Bob Tewksbury
Dillon Peters 97.7 6.63 3.32 1.01 93 0.9 Al Jackson
Pablo Lopez 136.0 5.10 2.18 1.13 89 0.9 Dave Geeve
Adam Conley 143.3 6.72 4.02 1.07 87 0.8 Bill Wight
Jose Urena 144.0 6.38 3.25 1.31 88 0.8 Steve Long
Edinson Volquez 84.0 7.39 4.50 0.96 92 0.7 Ken Hill
James Buckelew 92.0 5.77 4.30 0.68 92 0.6 Jim Shellenback
Merandy Gonzalez 116.7 7.87 5.17 1.08 86 0.6 Ben Hendrickson
Andy Beltre 51.0 9.00 4.41 0.71 110 0.6 Wayne Nix
Caleb Smith 104.7 8.42 4.47 1.29 87 0.5 Jeff Wilson
Justin Nicolino 142.3 4.81 2.47 1.33 85 0.5 John O’Donoghue
Vance Worley 107.3 5.70 2.94 1.17 86 0.4 Jack Lamabe
Chris O’Grady 79.3 7.38 3.29 1.36 89 0.4 Jeff Musselman
Nick Wittgren 54.7 8.23 2.14 1.15 103 0.4 Juan Padilla
Mike Kickham 120.7 5.89 2.61 1.42 84 0.4 Dave Gassner
Junichi Tazawa 56.7 7.94 2.70 1.11 100 0.4 Todd Williams
Dustin McGowan 64.3 8.12 4.06 1.12 98 0.3 Greg Minton
Alex Wimmers 56.0 8.36 4.50 0.96 99 0.3 Ruddy Lugo
Odrisamer Despaigne 110.3 6.04 3.75 1.06 84 0.3 Bennie Daniels
Miguel del Pozo 45.7 7.29 4.73 0.79 94 0.2 Mike Venafro
Stephen Fife 77.3 5.94 4.08 1.16 83 0.2 Dennis Burtt
Severino Gonzalez 80.3 5.83 2.13 1.34 88 0.2 Matt Schwager
Chris Mazza 114.0 4.97 3.39 1.26 81 0.2 Dave Lemanczyk
Brian Ellington 65.7 10.27 6.16 0.96 93 0.1 Justin Kaye
Kyle Lobstein 83.0 6.40 4.23 1.19 83 0.1 Rich Rundles
Sandy Alcantara 127.0 7.51 5.74 1.13 81 0.1 Blaine Boyer
Drew Rucinski 103.0 6.99 2.97 1.57 81 0.0 Felipe Lira
Esmerling de la Rosa 51.0 7.59 4.59 1.06 89 0.0 Casey Daigle
Jeff Locke 110.3 6.61 3.43 1.39 79 -0.1 Rick Krivda
Kelvin Marte 84.3 6.30 4.48 1.28 79 -0.2 Mike Kekich
Brandon Barker 119.3 6.71 3.85 1.51 78 -0.2 Andy Cook
Ryan Beckman 48.0 6.00 5.63 0.75 83 -0.2 Newt Kimball
Javy Guerra 58.7 7.36 5.21 1.23 84 -0.2 Jim Todd
Elieser Hernandez 78.0 7.96 4.04 1.85 76 -0.3 Luther Hackman
Hunter Cervenka 44.7 9.06 7.25 1.01 81 -0.3 Mike Kinnunen
Daniel Schlereth 30.7 7.04 7.33 0.88 77 -0.3 Jerry Johnson
Jarlin Garcia 54.3 7.13 3.48 1.49 82 -0.3 Bart Haley
Scott Copeland 122.0 5.90 4.43 1.40 76 -0.3 Michael Smith
Keyvius Sampson 91.0 9.00 6.63 1.29 76 -0.3 Mike Smith
Nick Neidert 113.3 6.20 2.14 1.91 75 -0.4 John Gardner
Brandon Cunniff 52.3 8.60 6.02 1.38 79 -0.4 Jake Robbins
James Needy 94.0 6.22 4.40 1.53 74 -0.4 Ben Fritz
Matt Tomshaw 130.7 5.51 2.55 1.72 76 -0.4 Scott Downs
Clayton Mortensen 60.7 8.30 5.93 1.48 75 -0.4 Jim Dougherty
Tayron Guerrero 41.3 10.68 7.41 1.53 75 -0.5 Calvin Jones
Greg Nappo 45.3 7.55 4.37 1.79 73 -0.6 Chris Michalak
William Cuevas 104.3 6.56 4.83 1.47 73 -0.6 Charlie Zink
Tyler Higgins 55.3 5.53 3.09 1.79 71 -0.7 Nick McCurdy
Brett Graves 93.3 5.40 4.05 1.83 68 -1.1 Brian Ahern

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Brian Reinhart
Member
Member

Christian Yelich top comp has the same initials.

…hey, it was hard to find anything fun about this team’s player comps. Because yikes.

Nils
Member
Nils

Brian Anderson higher WAR projection than Gallo? All I got.

JimmyD
Member
JimmyD

Christian Yelistrzemski