2018 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Brewers entered the 2017 campaign, in theory, as a rebuilding club. Between 2015 and -16, the organization had traded Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, all of whom had served as regulars for the team. In their place emerged a collection largely of unproven, if promising, talent — but not one, it seemed, designed to compete in a division that also featured the defending world champions.

What happened instead is Milwaukee led the NL Central into late July and missed a Wild Card slot by a mere game. The club’s position players ranked 17th in the league by WAR, which seemed improbable after the exodus of talent.

The successful 2017 team, however, doesn’t necessarily represent a baseline for the 2018 one. While one might expect the projections for the next iteration of the Brewers to reflect a club prepared to take another leap forward, that’s not what one finds here. Only two players, Domingo Santana (566 PA, 2.3 zWAR) and Travis Shaw (573, 2.7), are forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to transcend the two-win threshold. Meanwhile, both of the club’s starting middle infielders, Orlando Arcia (599, 1.4) and Jonathan Villar (526, 1.0), profile as something more like useful part-time players than first-division regulars.

Pitchers
Even more than the hitters, it was the team’s pitching staff that facilitated the Brewers’ surprising campaign. Projected for roughly two wins entering the season, right-hander Jimmy Nelson (170.2 IP, 3.5 zWAR) more than doubled that mark. He receives the top projection among the club’s starters (although is omitted from the depth-chart image below after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2017 season).

In Nelson’s absence, Zach Davies (189.0, 3.4) represents the ace of the staff, while Chase Anderson (135.1, 1.9) and Brandon Woodruff (121.0, 1.9) appear likely to serve as solid mid-rotation options. After that foursome, there’s less in the way of certainty. Jeff Sullivan sees some promise in newcomer and back-end starter Jhoulys Chacin (143.1, 1.2). Dan Szymborski’s model sees less promise.

In the bullpen, Corey Knebel (70.0 IP, 67 ERA-, 2.2 zWAR) represents an elite late-inning relief option, earning an ERA and WAR projection on par with Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen’s, for example. Jacob Barnes (65.1, 81, 1.2) and Jeremy Jeffress (63.2, 83, 1.0), meanwhile, are both forecast to produce ERAs roughly 20% better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
The earliest returns for Lewis Brinson (439 PA, 1.6 zWAR) at the major-league level weren’t particularly great. The young outfielder’s minor-league professional resume is strong, however. Unsurprisingly, he earns the top projection of those field players unlikely to break camp as a starter with the team. Hernan Perez (474, 1.4) returns as a useful multi-positional bench player, while prospects Mauricio Dubon (574, 0.9) and Monte Harrison (493, 0.9) profile as something better than replacement level right now.

Right-hander Corbin Burnes (130.0, 1.6) has recorded zero appearances above Double-A. Nevertheless, ZiPS calls for him to produce wins at something like a league-average rate. By the numbers, at least, he appears to be a legitimate candidate for the rotation. Brent Suter (118.1, 1.4), meanwhile, likely wouldn’t appear in a rotation that also included a healthy Jimmy Nelson. Nevertheless, he was the fourth-best starter for a decent club last year. He also profiles as a league-average type on a per-inning basis.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Travis Shaw L 28 3B 573 74 132 29 2 26 85 7 1
Domingo Santana R 25 RF 566 77 127 25 1 26 81 10 4
Neil Walker B 32 2B 483 61 115 21 2 19 62 1 2
Ryan Braun R 34 LF 472 65 121 24 3 20 73 12 4
Eric Thames L 31 1B 516 74 106 24 4 29 75 7 3
Lewis Brinson R 24 CF 439 52 96 21 4 16 51 11 5
Keon Broxton R 28 CF 487 63 94 18 6 20 58 25 8
Brett Phillips L 24 CF 534 63 105 18 7 21 69 11 4
Orlando Arcia R 23 SS 599 63 142 22 5 16 62 16 7
Hernan Perez R 27 LF 474 50 120 23 4 13 56 15 4
Manny Pina R 31 C 339 37 77 17 1 8 40 2 1
Stephen Vogt L 33 C 405 41 96 20 3 15 55 0 1
Eric Sogard L 32 2B 383 46 86 15 2 4 31 6 3
Jonathan Villar B 27 2B 526 64 115 23 3 15 53 34 11
Mauricio Dubon R 23 SS 574 63 134 25 3 10 50 26 12
Monte Harrison R 22 CF 493 55 102 20 3 15 54 17 5
Jett Bandy R 28 C 297 33 59 14 0 11 38 1 1
Jacob Nottingham R 23 C 414 43 80 17 2 12 44 6 4
Jesus Aguilar R 28 1B 473 57 104 20 1 19 71 0 0
Nick Franklin B 27 LF 353 39 78 16 2 11 45 7 2
Andrew Susac R 28 C 248 28 47 10 1 9 30 0 0
Tyler Heineman B 27 C 260 25 51 12 1 3 20 1 1
Lucas Erceg L 23 3B 532 55 121 26 2 13 60 3 4
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 30 RF 305 34 54 14 1 10 36 5 3
Nathan Orf R 28 2B 502 54 100 21 4 5 39 5 3
Isan Diaz L 22 2B 516 58 101 22 2 16 58 8 6
Ivan De Jesus R 31 3B 422 39 91 16 3 5 37 2 2
Nick Noonan L 29 3B 340 30 69 15 1 4 27 4 2
Kyle Wren L 27 LF 532 53 112 15 7 4 38 22 7
Johnny Davis B 28 CF 521 45 104 8 5 3 26 32 14
Clint Coulter R 24 RF 489 51 100 22 3 15 54 3 3
Art Charles L 27 1B 338 37 56 14 2 14 42 0 0
Chris Colabello R 34 1B 411 43 84 15 1 13 43 1 1
Corey Ray L 23 CF 479 45 92 20 4 8 39 18 12
Michael Reed R 25 LF 415 46 71 15 2 9 36 13 8
Blake Allemand B 25 2B 434 41 96 18 2 7 38 3 4
Michael Choice R 28 RF 340 37 64 14 1 14 41 1 1
Trent Grisham L 21 RF 570 63 94 17 5 10 44 28 6
Quintin Berry L 33 CF 342 32 64 8 1 3 21 18 7
Dustin DeMuth L 26 1B 445 41 86 17 2 7 36 4 5
Jake Gatewood R 22 1B 575 62 117 28 2 16 61 7 6

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Travis Shaw 573 8.6% 23.2% .216 .294 .256 .323 .472 .335 102
Domingo Santana 566 11.8% 30.9% .213 .345 .258 .352 .472 .352 113
Neil Walker 483 9.7% 17.4% .192 .294 .269 .346 .461 .344 108
Ryan Braun 472 8.3% 18.9% .211 .316 .284 .347 .495 .354 115
Eric Thames 516 12.6% 30.6% .270 .300 .240 .345 .510 .358 117
Lewis Brinson 439 7.1% 24.4% .193 .285 .240 .298 .433 .309 85
Keon Broxton 487 9.9% 37.4% .209 .319 .218 .300 .427 .310 86
Brett Phillips 534 9.0% 36.0% .198 .313 .219 .293 .418 .302 80
Orlando Arcia 599 6.3% 18.2% .144 .292 .256 .305 .401 .299 78
Hernan Perez 474 4.2% 18.1% .157 .305 .269 .299 .426 .307 84
Manny Pina 339 5.9% 19.5% .138 .288 .248 .299 .386 .295 76
Stephen Vogt 405 7.2% 17.3% .191 .280 .259 .314 .450 .323 94
Eric Sogard 383 11.0% 13.1% .093 .291 .257 .344 .349 .308 84
Jonathan Villar 526 8.7% 28.5% .157 .324 .244 .312 .400 .307 84
Mauricio Dubon 574 5.7% 15.7% .116 .288 .254 .300 .370 .289 72
Monte Harrison 493 6.3% 33.5% .158 .321 .227 .291 .384 .291 74
Jett Bandy 297 6.1% 21.5% .177 .247 .222 .291 .398 .297 77
Jacob Nottingham 414 7.0% 30.4% .154 .291 .216 .293 .370 .287 71
Jesus Aguilar 473 7.8% 26.0% .185 .293 .243 .307 .428 .312 87
Nick Franklin 353 8.2% 22.9% .167 .294 .246 .313 .413 .311 86
Andrew Susac 248 9.7% 30.2% .177 .275 .214 .294 .391 .295 76
Tyler Heineman 260 6.9% 17.3% .098 .257 .218 .281 .316 .264 56
Lucas Erceg 532 5.1% 22.2% .138 .290 .242 .282 .380 .283 68
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 305 11.5% 34.4% .174 .289 .204 .299 .377 .294 75
Nathan Orf 502 8.4% 19.1% .100 .275 .227 .305 .327 .280 66
Isan Diaz 516 9.5% 31.4% .161 .298 .220 .298 .381 .293 75
Ivan De Jesus 422 6.6% 21.6% .096 .297 .237 .296 .333 .276 63
Nick Noonan 340 5.3% 23.8% .092 .279 .219 .261 .311 .250 46
Kyle Wren 532 8.3% 19.0% .086 .287 .234 .300 .319 .274 62
Johnny Davis 521 5.6% 29.4% .056 .309 .216 .264 .272 .238 38
Clint Coulter 489 5.9% 26.4% .164 .279 .224 .286 .388 .290 72
Art Charles 338 9.8% 42.9% .199 .292 .186 .267 .385 .278 65
Chris Colabello 411 7.8% 28.5% .150 .290 .225 .292 .375 .289 72
Corey Ray 479 7.1% 35.7% .118 .319 .209 .268 .327 .258 52
Michael Reed 415 13.0% 33.7% .130 .297 .200 .308 .330 .284 69
Blake Allemand 434 5.3% 21.2% .107 .291 .239 .286 .346 .275 63
Michael Choice 340 7.1% 32.6% .188 .270 .208 .276 .396 .288 71
Trent Grisham 570 13.3% 33.2% .118 .291 .194 .304 .312 .276 63
Quintin Berry 342 8.5% 26.3% .062 .285 .210 .283 .272 .251 47
Dustin DeMuth 445 6.3% 33.9% .104 .317 .212 .279 .316 .261 54
Jake Gatewood 575 5.9% 33.4% .150 .306 .219 .268 .368 .272 61

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Travis Shaw 573 5.6 109 2 2.7 David Freese
Domingo Santana 566 6.1 117 -2 2.3 Ron Swoboda
Neil Walker 483 5.8 114 -3 2.2 Tim Naehring
Ryan Braun 472 6.6 122 -3 1.9 Jose Cruz
Eric Thames 516 6.3 125 -3 1.8 Leon Durham
Lewis Brinson 439 4.6 92 6 1.6 Shawn Abner
Keon Broxton 487 4.6 91 2 1.5 Chris Latham
Brett Phillips 534 4.3 87 5 1.5 Larry Whisenton
Orlando Arcia 599 4.5 87 1 1.4 Kevin Elster
Hernan Perez 474 4.9 91 10 1.4 Pat Watkins
Manny Pina 339 4.1 81 3 1.2 Jason Hill
Stephen Vogt 405 5.1 101 -8 1.1 Mike Heath
Eric Sogard 383 4.4 86 3 1.1 Jose Flores
Jonathan Villar 526 4.7 89 -3 1.0 Robby Thompson
Mauricio Dubon 574 4.1 78 1 0.9 Chin Hu
Monte Harrison 493 4.1 78 4 0.9 Franklin Gutierrez
Jett Bandy 297 4.0 82 0 0.8 Jim Horner
Jacob Nottingham 414 3.7 76 0 0.7 Nick Trzesniak
Jesus Aguilar 473 4.7 93 2 0.4 Alejandro Freire
Nick Franklin 353 4.7 92 0 0.4 Charles Poe
Andrew Susac 248 4.0 81 -4 0.3 Adam Witter
Tyler Heineman 260 3.0 60 2 0.2 Drew Butera
Lucas Erceg 532 3.7 75 1 0.1 Steve Buechele
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 305 3.8 79 1 -0.1 Doug Frobel
Nathan Orf 502 3.5 69 0 -0.1 Joe Inglett
Isan Diaz 516 3.8 80 -6 -0.2 Brett Bonvechio
Ivan De Jesus 422 3.4 68 0 -0.2 Marty Perez
Nick Noonan 340 2.8 52 6 -0.3 Gera Alvarez
Kyle Wren 532 3.6 66 4 -0.4 Kennard Bibbs
Johnny Davis 521 2.6 44 11 -0.6 Ellerton Maynard
Clint Coulter 489 3.8 78 -3 -0.7 Tommy Everidge
Art Charles 338 3.4 72 1 -0.7 Ronnie Gideon
Chris Colabello 411 3.8 77 -2 -0.8 Chris Pritchett
Corey Ray 479 2.9 58 2 -0.8 Van Snider
Michael Reed 415 3.3 71 -3 -0.8 Mark Chasey
Blake Allemand 434 3.4 68 -6 -0.8 Lionel Hastings
Michael Choice 340 3.7 77 -6 -0.8 Troy Farnsworth
Trent Grisham 570 3.5 65 -6 -1.3 Ken Smith
Quintin Berry 342 2.8 50 -6 -1.3 Thurman Tucker
Dustin DeMuth 445 2.9 59 0 -1.8 John Hughes
Jake Gatewood 575 3.3 68 -3 -2.0 Shon Ashley

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jimmy Nelson R 29 29 29 170.7 173 58 19 161 76 71
Zach Davies R 25 33 33 189.0 143 55 21 195 91 85
Corey Knebel R 26 70 0 70.0 110 34 8 49 25 23
Brandon Woodruff R 25 25 25 121.0 110 43 15 120 60 56
Chase Anderson R 30 26 26 135.3 119 44 21 136 70 65
Corbin Burnes R 23 26 26 130.0 120 65 16 127 71 66
Brent Suter L 28 32 21 118.3 95 34 17 125 62 58
Jhoulys Chacin R 30 28 26 143.3 120 61 20 146 81 76
Aaron Wilkerson R 29 25 24 126.3 116 45 21 130 72 67
Jacob Barnes R 28 66 0 65.3 72 29 5 57 28 26
Jon Perrin R 25 24 16 114.7 85 26 19 126 65 61
Jeremy Jeffress R 30 60 0 63.7 53 27 5 62 28 26
Taylor Jungmann R 28 27 23 124.0 117 71 16 121 72 67
Josh Hader L 24 67 0 64.7 96 38 10 49 30 28
Michael Blazek R 29 35 10 77.0 66 36 10 77 42 39
Yovani Gallardo R 32 25 22 122.0 91 58 19 130 74 69
Oliver Drake R 31 59 0 56.3 67 28 6 50 27 25
Junior Guerra R 33 23 19 99.0 92 49 18 94 59 55
Jared Hughes R 32 64 0 56.0 40 21 6 56 27 25
Tristan Archer R 27 45 2 78.3 64 25 10 83 42 39
Tim Dillard R 34 30 2 54.7 46 24 5 54 28 26
Hiram Burgos R 30 21 19 93.0 85 41 16 96 56 52
Tyler Webb L 27 43 1 60.7 70 22 11 58 32 30
Carlos Torres R 35 62 0 69.7 62 31 10 69 36 34
Andrew Barbosa L 30 28 8 62.0 64 31 10 61 35 33
Luis Ortiz R 22 21 20 90.0 69 40 15 97 56 52
Nick Ramirez L 28 48 0 68.3 46 31 6 71 36 34
Matt Garza R 34 23 21 113.3 80 42 19 126 71 66
Mike Zagurski L 35 27 0 29.0 37 16 3 24 14 13
Adrian Houser R 25 20 15 72.7 76 33 15 75 45 42
Freddy Peralta R 22 25 17 101.7 123 72 18 94 64 60
Bubba Derby R 24 28 17 107.7 86 47 19 123 67 63
Rob Scahill R 31 43 0 48.0 34 19 6 51 26 24
Michael Brady R 31 29 9 76.7 64 16 16 85 47 44
Wei-Chung Wang L 26 59 0 60.3 54 19 10 63 33 31
Taylor Williams R 26 27 15 66.7 68 30 13 68 42 39
Aaron Brooks R 28 25 24 135.7 92 30 28 167 89 83
Tom Wilhelmsen R 34 45 0 46.3 36 23 7 47 27 25
Tyler Cravy R 28 36 9 75.3 67 37 13 78 47 44
Erik Davis R 31 47 0 55.7 61 32 8 53 32 30
Forrest Snow R 29 30 8 79.7 79 31 20 85 54 50
Cody Ponce R 24 24 24 118.3 76 36 25 143 81 76
Jorge Lopez R 25 33 17 106.7 96 56 20 114 72 67
David Goforth R 29 51 0 56.3 43 36 8 60 36 34
Andy Oliver L 30 28 5 50.7 53 38 9 50 35 33
Josh Uhen R 26 40 1 56.7 41 30 10 65 40 37
Travis Hissong R 26 34 1 57.0 56 31 14 61 42 39
Wuilder Rodriguez R 25 29 3 63.0 51 32 15 72 47 44
Angel Ventura R 25 25 20 109.7 85 59 23 124 80 75
Marcos Diplan R 21 26 21 110.7 95 85 20 120 83 78

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jimmy Nelson 170.7 731 23.7% 7.9% .303 3.74 3.79 85 85
Zach Davies 189.0 817 17.5% 6.7% .295 4.05 4.06 91 91
Corey Knebel 70.0 293 37.5% 11.6% .297 2.96 2.91 67 65
Brandon Woodruff 121.0 526 20.9% 8.2% .299 4.17 4.17 94 93
Chase Anderson 135.3 586 20.3% 7.5% .290 4.32 4.48 98 100
Corbin Burnes 130.0 582 20.6% 11.2% .298 4.57 4.60 103 103
Brent Suter 118.3 514 18.5% 6.6% .298 4.41 4.41 100 99
Jhoulys Chacin 143.3 637 18.8% 9.6% .294 4.77 4.68 108 105
Aaron Wilkerson 126.3 554 20.9% 8.1% .299 4.77 4.69 108 105
Jacob Barnes 65.3 282 25.5% 10.3% .301 3.58 3.33 81 75
Jon Perrin 114.7 496 17.1% 5.2% .297 4.79 4.67 108 105
Jeremy Jeffress 63.7 280 18.9% 9.6% .297 3.68 3.74 83 84
Taylor Jungmann 124.0 564 20.7% 12.6% .298 4.86 4.84 110 108
Josh Hader 64.7 281 34.2% 13.5% .293 3.90 4.10 88 92
Michael Blazek 77.0 344 19.2% 10.5% .293 4.56 4.61 103 103
Yovani Gallardo 122.0 554 16.4% 10.5% .288 5.09 5.12 115 115
Oliver Drake 56.3 247 27.1% 11.3% .306 3.99 3.71 90 83
Junior Guerra 99.0 440 20.9% 11.1% .274 5.00 5.24 113 117
Jared Hughes 56.0 245 16.3% 8.6% .289 4.02 4.30 91 96
Tristan Archer 78.3 343 18.7% 7.3% .304 4.48 4.26 101 95
Tim Dillard 54.7 242 19.0% 9.9% .299 4.28 4.04 97 90
Hiram Burgos 93.0 416 20.4% 9.9% .297 5.03 5.05 114 113
Tyler Webb 60.7 262 26.7% 8.4% .301 4.45 4.39 100 98
Carlos Torres 69.7 309 20.1% 10.0% .289 4.39 4.58 99 103
Andrew Barbosa 62.0 278 23.0% 11.2% .300 4.79 4.79 108 107
Luis Ortiz 90.0 407 17.0% 9.8% .296 5.20 5.32 117 119
Nick Ramirez 68.3 307 15.0% 10.1% .295 4.48 4.45 101 100
Matt Garza 113.3 508 15.7% 8.3% .293 5.24 5.01 118 112
Mike Zagurski 29.0 127 29.1% 12.6% .304 4.03 3.71 91 83
Adrian Houser 72.7 326 23.3% 10.1% .303 5.20 5.28 117 118
Freddy Peralta 101.7 471 26.1% 15.3% .302 5.31 5.34 120 120
Bubba Derby 107.7 493 17.4% 9.5% .310 5.27 5.28 119 118
Rob Scahill 48.0 214 15.9% 8.9% .296 4.50 4.55 102 102
Michael Brady 76.7 331 19.3% 4.8% .300 5.17 4.94 117 111
Wei-Chung Wang 60.3 263 20.5% 7.2% .299 4.62 4.62 104 103
Taylor Williams 66.7 298 22.8% 10.1% .301 5.26 5.14 119 115
Aaron Brooks 135.7 604 15.2% 5.0% .311 5.51 5.28 124 118
Tom Wilhelmsen 46.3 209 17.2% 11.0% .284 4.86 5.12 110 115
Tyler Cravy 75.3 341 19.6% 10.9% .295 5.26 5.25 119 118
Erik Davis 55.7 252 24.2% 12.7% .304 4.85 4.67 110 105
Forrest Snow 79.7 355 22.3% 8.7% .294 5.65 5.76 128 129
Cody Ponce 118.3 534 14.2% 6.7% .303 5.78 5.71 131 128
Jorge Lopez 106.7 490 19.6% 11.4% .301 5.65 5.51 128 123
David Goforth 56.3 265 16.2% 13.6% .297 5.43 5.39 123 121
Andy Oliver 50.7 240 22.1% 15.8% .297 5.86 5.68 132 127
Josh Uhen 56.7 265 15.5% 11.3% .304 5.88 5.70 133 128
Travis Hissong 57.0 263 21.3% 11.8% .297 6.16 6.18 139 138
Wuilder Rodriguez 63.0 293 17.4% 10.9% .298 6.29 6.35 142 142
Angel Ventura 109.7 512 16.6% 11.5% .299 6.16 6.11 139 137
Marcos Diplan 110.7 537 17.7% 15.8% .303 6.34 6.26 143 140

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jimmy Nelson 170.7 9.12 3.06 1.00 115 3.5 Walt Terrell
Zach Davies 189.0 6.81 2.62 1.00 108 3.4 Burt Hooton
Corey Knebel 70.0 14.14 4.37 1.03 148 2.2 Mark Littell
Brandon Woodruff 121.0 8.18 3.20 1.12 103 1.9 Bill Long
Chase Anderson 135.3 7.91 2.93 1.40 100 1.9 Armando Reynoso
Corbin Burnes 130.0 8.31 4.50 1.11 96 1.6 Dick Ruthven
Brent Suter 118.3 7.23 2.59 1.29 98 1.4 Ted Bowsfield
Jhoulys Chacin 143.3 7.53 3.83 1.26 90 1.2 Jaime Cocanower
Aaron Wilkerson 126.3 8.26 3.21 1.50 91 1.2 Joey Hamilton
Jacob Barnes 65.3 9.92 3.99 0.69 120 1.2 Bryce Florie
Jon Perrin 114.7 6.67 2.04 1.49 91 1.0 Gil Heredia
Jeremy Jeffress 63.7 7.49 3.82 0.71 117 1.0 Don McMahon
Taylor Jungmann 124.0 8.49 5.15 1.16 89 1.0 Brett Laxton
Josh Hader 64.7 13.36 5.29 1.39 112 0.9 Mitch Williams
Michael Blazek 77.0 7.71 4.21 1.17 94 0.7 Charlie Williams
Yovani Gallardo 122.0 6.71 4.28 1.40 86 0.7 Spec Shea
Oliver Drake 56.3 10.70 4.47 0.96 109 0.7 Colter Bean
Junior Guerra 99.0 8.36 4.45 1.64 87 0.7 Scott Kamieniecki
Jared Hughes 56.0 6.43 3.38 0.96 107 0.6 Johnny Murphy
Tristan Archer 78.3 7.35 2.87 1.15 96 0.6 Mike Draper
Tim Dillard 54.7 7.57 3.95 0.82 101 0.6 Bruce Dal Canton
Hiram Burgos 93.0 8.23 3.97 1.55 86 0.5 Mark Thompson
Tyler Webb 60.7 10.38 3.26 1.63 98 0.5 Jim Poole
Carlos Torres 69.7 8.01 4.00 1.29 98 0.5 Don McMahon
Andrew Barbosa 62.0 9.29 4.50 1.45 90 0.4 Don Ferrarese
Luis Ortiz 90.0 6.90 4.00 1.50 84 0.4 Randy Hennis
Nick Ramirez 68.3 6.06 4.08 0.79 96 0.4 Jim Roland
Matt Garza 113.3 6.35 3.34 1.51 82 0.4 Aaron Sele
Mike Zagurski 29.0 11.48 4.97 0.93 108 0.3 Kevin Tolar
Adrian Houser 72.7 9.41 4.09 1.86 84 0.3 Roger Salkeld
Freddy Peralta 101.7 10.89 6.37 1.59 82 0.3 Scott Garrelts
Bubba Derby 107.7 7.19 3.93 1.59 82 0.3 Dan Smith
Rob Scahill 48.0 6.38 3.56 1.13 96 0.3 Eddie Watt
Michael Brady 76.7 7.51 1.88 1.88 85 0.2 Matt Ginter
Wei-Chung Wang 60.3 8.06 2.83 1.49 93 0.2 Mike Jeffcoat
Taylor Williams 66.7 9.18 4.05 1.76 83 0.2 Walt Masterson
Aaron Brooks 135.7 6.10 1.99 1.86 79 0.2 Heath Totten
Tom Wilhelmsen 46.3 6.99 4.47 1.36 90 0.1 Hal White
Tyler Cravy 75.3 8.00 4.42 1.55 82 0.1 Tom McCarthy
Erik Davis 55.7 9.86 5.17 1.29 89 0.1 Colter Bean
Forrest Snow 79.7 8.92 3.50 2.26 77 -0.2 Anthony Telford
Cody Ponce 118.3 5.78 2.74 1.90 76 -0.2 Mike Lincoln
Jorge Lopez 106.7 8.10 4.73 1.69 76 -0.2 Chuck McGrath
David Goforth 56.3 6.87 5.75 1.28 79 -0.3 Bucky Brandon
Andy Oliver 50.7 9.41 6.75 1.60 73 -0.4 Jeff Tabaka
Josh Uhen 56.7 6.51 4.76 1.59 73 -0.6 Jeremy Salyers
Travis Hissong 57.0 8.84 4.89 2.21 71 -0.7 Tracy Thorpe
Wuilder Rodriguez 63.0 7.29 4.57 2.14 69 -0.8 Scott Sobkowiak
Angel Ventura 109.7 6.98 4.84 1.89 70 -0.8 Mark Carper
Marcos Diplan 110.7 7.73 6.91 1.63 69 -1.0 Edwin Morel

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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drewsylvania
Member
drewsylvania

I like to think Szym bakes in a zWAR penalty for Braun for being a crappy human being.

drewsylvania
Member
drewsylvania

I see Brewers homers.

CCSAGE
Member
CCSAGE

Can some Brewers homers tell me what you think about Santana? He seams to have a wide variety of outcomes probably due to K% but he also takes his walks. A little beyond-the-boxscore analysis would be appreciated.

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

When he came up he was hilarious to watch. He’d swing at pitches he shouldn’t but take pitches right down the middle. And his routes to the ball in the outfield were “creative”. He’s gotten better on all counts but still a work in progress. He’s a beast physically so it works, and still some upside there but don’t hold your breath.