2018 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Twins’ surprising 2017 campaign, which included a place in the Wild Card game, was a product in no small part of the club’s most promising young players translating their immense talents into on-field success. Byron Buxton (projected for 538 PA and 3.2 zWAR in 2018), Eddie Rosario (578, 1.6), and Miguel Sano (531, 2.7) combined for 8.3 WAR as a group. ZiPS calls for the triumvirate to fall short of that mark in 2018 but to still approach the eight-win threshold — all at basically no cost to the team.

Buxton remains a source of great interest, of course. After a series of fits and starts, he managed to hit well enough this past season to allow his other skills to carry him. In 2017, he recorded the highest WAR (3.5) of any player who also produced a below-average batting line (90 wRC+, in this case). Dan Szymborski’s computer suggests he could once again earn that strange distinction, projecting Buxton for a 90 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR.

Finally, it should be noted that ZiPS projects plate-appearance totals using only the data from a player’s observed track record and is agnostic to news of injury, etc. Accordingly, there has been no attempt here to account for how allegations of sexual assault might affect Miguel Sano’s playing time. Which is good because, whatever the virtues of Szymborski’s model, contending with fraught and difficult and nuanced social conversations isn’t (and needn’t be) among them.

Pitchers
Relative to other clubs’ rotations, the Twins’ starting cohort wasn’t particularly great this past season. Relative to last year’s ZiPS forecasts, however, the results were actually favorable. Jose Berrios (176.2 IP and 3.3 zWAR) and Ervin Santana (173.1, 2.5), projected for 3.7 WAR total last January, actually combined for just under six wins between them. ZiPS calls for the pair to approximate their 2017 output. Kyle Gibson (160.1, 1.9), meanwhile, is actually forecast to nearly double his WAR mark in 2018, allowing 0.3 fewer home runs per nine innings and an opponent BABIP that’s roughly 30 points lower. After that group, the rotation offers little in the way of even average talent, however.

With regard to the bullpen, the Twins are in the curious position of employing a closer, Fernando Rodney (52.1 IP, 92 ERA-, 0.6 zWAR), forecast to allow runs at a higher rate than, like, all the rest of the bullpen. Tyler Duffey (77.0, 91, 0.8), Zach Duke (41.0, 78, 0.7), Trevor Hildenberger (64.1, 78, 1.1), Ryan Pressly (69.1, 81, 1.0), and Taylor Rogers (71.0, 88, 0.9) all appear likely both to (a) make the Opening Day roster and (b) record a lower ERA than Rodney himself.

Bench/Prospects
Eduardo Escobar (472 PA, 1.4 zWAR) is omitted from the depth-chart image below but has averaged roughly 450 plate appearances for the Twins over the past four seasons and is likely to play a large role with the club again in 2018. Among rookie-eligible field players, shortstop Nick Gordon (569, 0.7) and outfielder LaMonte Wade (483, 0.7) receive the top WAR projections.

As noted above, Minnesota’s rotation lacks any depth to speak of. That said, Michael Pineda (103.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR) might serve some kind of role should he make a successful return from Tommy John surgery. Right-hander John Curtiss (54.2 IP, 77 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR), meanwhile, is another of the relief types forecast for a better ERA than Rodney.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Brian Dozier R 31 2B 666 100 150 32 3 31 88 15 6
Byron Buxton R 24 CF 538 71 120 20 7 18 62 24 2
Miguel Sano R 25 3B 531 74 113 21 2 30 87 1 0
Eddie Rosario L 26 LF 578 76 145 28 5 21 72 9 7
Jason Castro L 31 C 388 41 78 18 1 10 42 0 0
Max Kepler L 25 RF 556 66 126 28 5 17 73 7 2
Jorge Polanco B 24 SS 577 62 139 27 5 12 70 12 6
Joe Mauer L 35 1B 549 62 138 27 2 7 58 2 1
Eduardo Escobar B 29 3B 472 53 113 24 4 14 63 3 2
Mitch Garver R 27 C 456 51 94 22 2 10 51 3 2
Kennys Vargas B 27 1B 506 64 107 19 1 25 72 0 0
LaMonte Wade L 24 LF 483 56 108 16 3 9 46 8 3
Nick Gordon L 22 SS 569 60 131 25 6 7 51 12 10
Willians Astudillo R 26 C 337 35 89 16 0 6 38 1 2
Robbie Grossman B 28 RF 469 62 104 22 1 12 48 4 2
Ehire Adrianza B 28 SS 254 30 56 11 1 5 27 6 3
Byung Ho Park R 31 1B 484 57 105 19 1 22 63 2 1
Zack Granite L 24 CF 587 64 138 18 6 4 44 38 14
Brock Stassi L 28 1B 405 44 87 16 1 11 47 1 1
T.J. White R 26 3B 464 47 97 19 3 10 46 4 4
Tommy Field R 31 2B 427 43 84 18 1 10 37 4 1
Taylor Featherston R 28 3B 380 42 74 16 2 9 39 8 2
Chris Gimenez R 35 C 246 28 46 9 0 6 20 1 0
Bobby Wilson R 35 C 240 23 48 7 0 6 27 0 0
Gregorio Petit R 33 SS 297 28 66 16 1 4 27 2 1
Carlos Paulino R 28 C 179 16 37 6 1 1 13 1 0
Ryan LaMarre R 29 CF 285 28 56 9 1 6 23 9 5
Andy Wilkins L 29 1B 382 45 78 18 1 17 53 1 0
Leonardo Reginatto R 28 3B 409 37 91 14 1 3 29 3 4
Jonathan Rodriguez R 28 1B 505 58 105 18 1 15 53 3 2
Anthony Recker R 34 C 244 24 44 11 1 7 27 1 0
Ben Paulsen L 30 LF 394 41 82 18 3 12 42 1 1
Levi Michael R 27 CF 361 35 69 10 2 5 27 7 4
Brent Rooker R 23 LF 410 54 85 13 0 17 62 3 4
Ryan Strausborger R 30 CF 295 29 57 10 1 5 22 10 3
Jermaine Palacios R 21 SS 530 55 119 17 5 11 50 13 15
Edgar Corcino B 26 RF 497 49 112 18 4 7 42 4 3
J.B. Shuck L 31 LF 431 41 95 16 4 4 33 5 3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Brian Dozier 666 10.4% 20.6% .225 .283 .257 .341 .482 .347 115
Byron Buxton 538 7.2% 29.4% .180 .324 .246 .305 .426 .312 90
Miguel Sano 531 11.9% 35.4% .249 .336 .245 .337 .494 .349 116
Eddie Rosario 578 5.0% 20.6% .187 .306 .269 .304 .456 .319 96
Jason Castro 388 9.8% 28.4% .146 .302 .227 .310 .373 .298 81
Max Kepler 556 8.5% 20.1% .178 .291 .252 .319 .430 .319 95
Jorge Polanco 577 6.9% 15.3% .139 .295 .265 .316 .404 .309 88
Joe Mauer 549 11.3% 15.7% .108 .334 .286 .368 .394 .331 103
Eduardo Escobar 472 6.4% 18.9% .171 .296 .260 .311 .431 .315 92
Mitch Garver 456 9.4% 25.7% .138 .297 .231 .307 .369 .294 78
Kennys Vargas 506 10.3% 28.9% .214 .293 .239 .320 .453 .328 101
LaMonte Wade 483 10.4% 17.0% .117 .295 .257 .338 .374 .310 89
Nick Gordon 569 5.8% 25.7% .109 .327 .247 .295 .356 .282 70
Willians Astudillo 337 2.1% 4.7% .107 .277 .279 .304 .386 .296 79
Robbie Grossman 469 13.2% 19.8% .149 .309 .259 .360 .408 .336 107
Ehire Adrianza 254 7.5% 16.9% .124 .283 .249 .312 .373 .297 80
Byung Ho Park 484 6.6% 31.0% .197 .305 .238 .300 .435 .313 91
Zack Granite 587 6.5% 12.9% .079 .293 .258 .309 .336 .284 71
Brock Stassi 405 9.9% 20.5% .142 .283 .242 .319 .384 .305 86
T.J. White 464 6.0% 24.4% .130 .287 .229 .291 .359 .282 70
Tommy Field 427 6.3% 22.5% .129 .260 .216 .278 .345 .271 62
Taylor Featherston 380 6.3% 31.6% .135 .294 .213 .272 .349 .268 61
Chris Gimenez 246 10.2% 26.8% .126 .278 .214 .300 .340 .284 71
Bobby Wilson 240 6.3% 24.2% .114 .268 .219 .270 .333 .261 56
Gregorio Petit 297 4.0% 20.2% .107 .284 .236 .268 .343 .262 56
Carlos Paulino 179 6.7% 21.8% .068 .293 .230 .284 .298 .258 53
Ryan LaMarre 285 6.7% 30.5% .112 .299 .217 .279 .329 .267 60
Andy Wilkins 382 8.1% 28.5% .206 .272 .226 .288 .432 .303 84
Leonardo Reginatto 409 5.9% 18.3% .066 .292 .242 .291 .309 .265 58
Jonathan Rodriguez 505 9.5% 29.3% .144 .308 .232 .307 .376 .297 80
Anthony Recker 244 7.8% 32.0% .156 .274 .202 .276 .358 .275 65
Ben Paulsen 394 6.9% 27.4% .165 .285 .225 .279 .390 .285 72
Levi Michael 361 6.4% 29.9% .089 .298 .212 .279 .301 .258 54
Brent Rooker 410 6.8% 33.2% .170 .304 .226 .288 .396 .294 78
Ryan Strausborger 295 6.1% 27.5% .100 .280 .211 .266 .311 .254 51
Jermaine Palacios 530 3.4% 22.3% .119 .286 .237 .268 .356 .268 61
Edgar Corcino 497 5.8% 20.7% .102 .296 .242 .288 .344 .274 65
J.B. Shuck 431 6.0% 9.7% .091 .257 .240 .287 .331 .268 60

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Brian Dozier 666 6.0 121 -1 3.6 Ryne Sandberg
Byron Buxton 538 5.1 97 15 3.2 Adam Jones
Miguel Sano 531 6.0 123 -3 2.7 Nick Esasky
Eddie Rosario 578 5.0 103 7 1.6 Chris James
Jason Castro 388 4.0 86 5 1.6 Danny Ardoin
Max Kepler 556 5.0 102 4 1.4 Mike O’Keefe
Jorge Polanco 577 4.7 95 -3 1.4 Chris Pittaro
Joe Mauer 549 5.5 109 4 1.4 Keith Hernandez
Eduardo Escobar 472 4.9 99 1 1.4 Wade Rowdon
Mitch Garver 456 3.9 83 2 1.3 Carlos Maldonado
Kennys Vargas 506 5.1 108 0 0.9 Damon Minor
LaMonte Wade 483 4.6 94 2 0.7 Jorge Cortes
Nick Gordon 569 3.6 77 3 0.7 Shawon Dunston
Willians Astudillo 337 4.3 87 -2 0.6 Johnny Estrada
Robbie Grossman 469 5.3 109 -9 0.6 Bobby Kielty
Ehire Adrianza 254 4.2 86 1 0.6 Donnie Hill
Byung Ho Park 484 4.6 97 3 0.6 Jason Dubois
Zack Granite 587 4.0 74 1 0.4 Adrian Brown
Brock Stassi 405 4.3 91 4 0.3 Jose Tolentino
T.J. White 464 3.6 76 3 0.3 Tony Trevino
Tommy Field 427 3.4 69 5 0.3 Jorge Velandia
Taylor Featherston 380 3.4 68 4 0.2 Scott Sheldon
Chris Gimenez 246 3.6 75 -3 0.1 Jim Sundberg
Bobby Wilson 240 3.1 64 1 0.1 Joe Oliver
Gregorio Petit 297 3.2 65 3 0.1 Aurelio Rodriguez
Carlos Paulino 179 3.0 60 1 0.0 Tony Eusebio
Ryan LaMarre 285 3.1 65 3 0.0 Mark Doran
Andy Wilkins 382 4.4 93 -1 -0.2 J.R. Phillips
Leonardo Reginatto 409 3.1 64 3 -0.3 Al Pedrique
Jonathan Rodriguez 505 4.0 85 1 -0.3 Alejandro Freire
Anthony Recker 244 3.4 71 -6 -0.3 George Mitterwald
Ben Paulsen 394 3.8 80 -1 -0.5 Matthew Cepicky
Levi Michael 361 2.8 58 1 -0.5 Mark Doran
Brent Rooker 410 3.8 84 -3 -0.5 Tim Giles
Ryan Strausborger 295 3.0 57 -2 -0.7 Mike Murphy
Jermaine Palacios 530 3.0 68 -3 -0.7 Gary DiSarcina
Edgar Corcino 497 3.5 72 -4 -1.3 Ed Yacopino
J.B. Shuck 431 3.4 68 -6 -1.6 Ryan Fleming

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jose Berrios R 24 32 31 176.7 174 60 20 165 82 77
Ervin Santana R 35 28 28 173.3 138 51 23 171 85 79
Kyle Gibson R 30 29 29 160.3 119 57 19 169 87 81
Michael Pineda R 29 18 18 103.0 96 23 15 112 52 49
Adalberto Mejia L 25 25 25 119.7 99 41 17 128 65 61
Stephen Gonsalves L 23 21 20 106.7 93 46 14 108 59 55
Trevor Hildenberger R 27 52 0 64.3 64 12 7 60 27 25
Zack Littell R 22 27 25 142.7 103 46 22 160 82 77
Ryan Pressly R 29 62 0 69.3 67 24 6 63 30 28
Taylor Rogers L 27 71 0 71.0 58 23 7 71 33 31
John Curtiss R 25 48 0 54.7 63 27 4 46 22 21
Matt Belisle R 38 50 0 48.7 41 15 4 47 20 19
Fernando Romero R 23 22 22 135.7 96 49 21 146 80 75
Dietrich Enns L 27 20 15 86.3 74 43 11 87 48 45
Tyler Duffey R 27 65 0 77.0 71 20 10 77 37 35
Aaron Slegers R 25 27 26 147.3 97 41 24 167 89 83
Dillon Gee R 32 27 16 110.7 80 32 18 124 63 59
Zach Duke L 35 55 0 41.0 40 17 4 37 17 16
Gabriel Moya L 23 64 0 64.7 69 27 8 59 31 29
Trevor May R 28 48 0 49.0 53 19 5 46 22 21
Fernando Rodney R 41 58 0 52.3 58 26 6 46 26 24
Bartolo Colon R 45 26 25 136.3 85 27 24 165 82 77
D.J. Baxendale R 27 32 13 93.3 62 27 14 106 55 51
Michael Tonkin R 28 55 0 66.0 79 25 11 63 33 31
Cody Stashak R 24 23 18 96.3 64 33 15 108 59 55
J.T. Chargois R 27 46 0 43.0 39 24 4 41 21 20
Nick Anderson R 27 43 0 52.3 53 20 8 51 27 25
Buddy Boshers L 30 56 0 50.3 46 24 5 49 26 24
Felix Jorge R 24 26 26 144.0 82 38 25 172 91 85
Jake Reed R 25 40 0 51.3 41 24 4 52 27 25
Alan Busenitz R 27 49 1 66.7 53 24 10 70 36 34
Hector Santiago L 30 25 24 118.0 94 58 22 123 75 70
Phil Hughes R 32 17 12 75.3 48 14 15 91 47 44
Glen Perkins L 35 41 0 38.0 36 12 6 39 20 19
Kam Mickolio R 34 32 0 28.7 16 11 3 32 16 15
Drew Rucinski R 29 30 15 101.3 76 32 19 120 65 61
Kohl Stewart R 23 20 20 93.7 53 60 10 105 62 58
Chris Gimenez R 35 5 0 4.3 0 0 1 6 3 3
Tyler Kinley R 27 47 0 51.0 48 27 8 53 31 29
Yohan Pino R 34 15 10 58.0 43 17 13 68 40 37
Chris Heston R 30 24 21 113.7 77 47 21 133 76 71
Mason Melotakis L 27 39 1 44.7 40 24 8 47 29 27
Adam Wilk L 30 17 15 86.3 58 24 19 105 59 55
Myles Jaye R 26 27 26 135.7 88 54 24 158 93 87
Ryan Eades R 26 27 14 89.7 58 47 14 103 62 58
Lewis Thorpe L 22 17 16 69.7 63 45 14 75 50 47
Matt Tracy L 29 21 14 84.0 55 39 16 100 60 56
Todd Van Steensel R 27 40 0 53.0 46 35 10 57 37 35
Dereck Rodriguez R 26 24 22 114.3 76 46 30 143 92 86

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jose Berrios 176.7 755 23.0% 7.9% .297 3.92 3.90 88 88
Ervin Santana 173.3 742 18.6% 6.9% .282 4.10 4.22 92 95
Kyle Gibson 160.3 707 16.8% 8.1% .296 4.55 4.34 102 98
Michael Pineda 103.0 444 21.6% 5.2% .316 4.28 3.94 96 89
Adalberto Mejia 119.7 528 18.8% 7.8% .304 4.59 4.48 102 101
Stephen Gonsalves 106.7 474 19.6% 9.7% .298 4.64 4.58 104 104
Trevor Hildenberger 64.3 265 24.2% 4.5% .298 3.50 3.24 78 73
Zack Littell 142.7 634 16.2% 7.3% .304 4.86 4.87 109 110
Ryan Pressly 69.3 295 22.7% 8.1% .291 3.63 3.35 81 76
Taylor Rogers 71.0 307 18.9% 7.5% .296 3.93 3.82 88 86
John Curtiss 54.7 237 26.6% 11.4% .302 3.46 3.51 77 79
Matt Belisle 48.7 208 19.7% 7.2% .295 3.51 3.34 78 76
Fernando Romero 135.7 602 15.9% 8.1% .291 4.98 4.99 111 113
Dietrich Enns 86.3 389 19.0% 11.1% .297 4.69 4.77 105 108
Tyler Duffey 77.0 328 21.6% 6.1% .298 4.09 3.78 91 85
Aaron Slegers 147.3 650 14.9% 6.3% .297 5.07 4.94 113 112
Dillon Gee 110.7 488 16.4% 6.6% .301 4.80 4.83 107 109
Zach Duke 41.0 177 22.6% 9.6% .289 3.51 3.72 78 84
Gabriel Moya 64.7 280 24.6% 9.6% .295 4.04 4.02 90 91
Trevor May 49.0 212 25.0% 9.0% .308 3.86 3.55 86 80
Fernando Rodney 52.3 229 25.3% 11.4% .299 4.13 4.04 92 91
Bartolo Colon 136.3 601 14.1% 4.5% .305 5.08 4.79 114 108
D.J. Baxendale 93.3 413 15.0% 6.5% .302 4.92 4.81 110 109
Michael Tonkin 66.0 286 27.6% 8.7% .310 4.23 4.20 94 95
Cody Stashak 96.3 430 14.9% 7.7% .298 5.14 5.07 115 114
J.T. Chargois 43.0 194 20.1% 12.4% .298 4.19 4.44 94 100
Nick Anderson 52.3 228 23.2% 8.8% .299 4.30 4.38 96 99
Buddy Boshers 50.3 224 20.5% 10.7% .301 4.29 4.17 96 94
Felix Jorge 144.0 642 12.8% 5.9% .301 5.31 5.23 119 118
Jake Reed 51.3 230 17.8% 10.4% .304 4.38 4.09 98 92
Alan Busenitz 66.7 294 18.0% 8.2% .294 4.59 4.69 103 106
Hector Santiago 118.0 535 17.6% 10.8% .284 5.34 5.56 119 126
Phil Hughes 75.3 331 14.5% 4.2% .300 5.26 5.03 117 114
Glen Perkins 38.0 165 21.8% 7.3% .303 4.50 4.26 101 96
Kam Mickolio 28.7 129 12.4% 8.5% .296 4.71 4.66 105 105
Drew Rucinski 101.3 456 16.7% 7.0% .313 5.42 5.22 121 118
Kohl Stewart 93.7 446 11.9% 13.5% .299 5.57 5.50 125 124
Chris Gimenez 4.3 19 0.0% 0.0% .278 6.23 6.16 139 139
Tyler Kinley 51.0 233 20.6% 11.6% .306 5.12 5.02 114 113
Yohan Pino 58.0 259 16.6% 6.6% .299 5.74 5.52 128 125
Chris Heston 113.7 521 14.8% 9.0% .304 5.62 5.58 126 126
Mason Melotakis 44.7 205 19.5% 11.7% .300 5.44 5.51 122 124
Adam Wilk 86.3 388 14.9% 6.2% .304 5.73 5.61 128 127
Myles Jaye 135.7 619 14.2% 8.7% .302 5.77 5.53 129 125
Ryan Eades 89.7 419 13.8% 11.2% .302 5.82 5.63 130 127
Lewis Thorpe 69.7 329 19.1% 13.7% .300 6.07 6.07 136 137
Matt Tracy 84.0 391 14.1% 10.0% .304 6.00 5.90 134 133
Todd Van Steensel 53.0 251 18.3% 13.9% .299 5.94 6.03 133 136
Dereck Rodriguez 114.3 532 14.3% 8.6% .304 6.77 6.66 151 150

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Berrios 176.7 8.86 3.06 1.02 110 3.3 Dave Stieb
Ervin Santana 173.3 7.17 2.65 1.19 104 2.5 Steve Sparks
Kyle Gibson 160.3 6.68 3.20 1.07 95 1.9 Omar Olivares
Michael Pineda 103.0 8.39 2.01 1.31 101 1.4 Carl Pavano
Adalberto Mejia 119.7 7.45 3.08 1.28 93 1.1 Dave Fleming
Stephen Gonsalves 106.7 7.85 3.88 1.18 93 1.1 Chris Hancock
Trevor Hildenberger 64.3 8.95 1.68 0.98 124 1.1 Jeff Tam
Zack Littell 142.7 6.50 2.90 1.39 89 1.0 Michael Macdonald
Ryan Pressly 69.3 8.70 3.12 0.78 119 1.0 Jose Jimenez
Taylor Rogers 71.0 7.35 2.92 0.89 110 0.9 Gabe Gonzalez
John Curtiss 54.7 10.37 4.45 0.66 125 0.9 Mark Littell
Matt Belisle 48.7 7.58 2.77 0.74 121 0.9 Stu Miller
Fernando Romero 135.7 6.37 3.25 1.39 87 0.8 Mario Brito
Dietrich Enns 86.3 7.71 4.48 1.15 92 0.8 Jeff Shaver
Tyler Duffey 77.0 8.30 2.34 1.17 106 0.8 Jose Santiago
Aaron Slegers 147.3 5.93 2.50 1.47 85 0.7 Mike Thompson
Dillon Gee 110.7 6.51 2.60 1.46 89 0.7 John Buzhardt
Zach Duke 41.0 8.78 3.73 0.88 122 0.7 Luis Arroyo
Gabriel Moya 64.7 9.60 3.76 1.11 107 0.7 Buzz Oliver
Trevor May 49.0 9.73 3.49 0.92 112 0.6 Ernie Camacho
Fernando Rodney 52.3 9.97 4.47 1.03 105 0.6 Greg Harris
Bartolo Colon 136.3 5.61 1.78 1.58 84 0.6 Jim Bunning
D.J. Baxendale 93.3 5.98 2.60 1.35 88 0.5 Steve Lemke
Michael Tonkin 66.0 10.77 3.41 1.50 102 0.5 Mike Timlin
Cody Stashak 96.3 5.98 3.08 1.40 84 0.4 Jason Karnuth
J.T. Chargois 43.0 8.16 5.02 0.84 103 0.4 Clay Bryant
Nick Anderson 52.3 9.11 3.44 1.38 101 0.4 Joe Bateman
Buddy Boshers 50.3 8.23 4.29 0.89 101 0.4 Mike Kinnunen
Felix Jorge 144.0 5.13 2.38 1.56 81 0.4 Bill King
Jake Reed 51.3 7.19 4.21 0.70 99 0.3 Sam Nahem
Alan Busenitz 66.7 7.16 3.24 1.35 94 0.3 Scott Rose
Hector Santiago 118.0 7.17 4.42 1.68 81 0.3 Steve Avery
Phil Hughes 75.3 5.73 1.67 1.79 82 0.2 Brian Tollberg
Glen Perkins 38.0 8.53 2.84 1.42 95 0.2 Eric Gunderson
Kam Mickolio 28.7 5.02 3.45 0.94 92 0.1 Milo Candini
Drew Rucinski 101.3 6.75 2.84 1.69 80 0.1 Felipe Lira
Kohl Stewart 93.7 5.09 5.77 0.96 78 0.0 Rick Berg
Chris Gimenez 4.3 0.00 0.00 2.08 68 -0.1 Jose Bautista
Tyler Kinley 51.0 8.47 4.76 1.41 83 -0.1 Pete Sikaras
Yohan Pino 58.0 6.67 2.64 2.02 75 -0.1 Jeff Harris
Chris Heston 113.7 6.10 3.72 1.66 76 -0.2 Ryan Jensen
Mason Melotakis 44.7 8.06 4.84 1.61 80 -0.2 Tom Doyle
Adam Wilk 86.3 6.05 2.50 1.98 74 -0.2 Dave Gassner
Myles Jaye 135.7 5.84 3.58 1.59 75 -0.3 Zach Segovia
Ryan Eades 89.7 5.82 4.72 1.41 74 -0.3 Charlie Zink
Lewis Thorpe 69.7 8.14 5.81 1.81 71 -0.4 Rejino Gonzalez
Matt Tracy 84.0 5.89 4.18 1.71 72 -0.4 Matt Williams
Todd Van Steensel 53.0 7.81 5.94 1.70 73 -0.6 Agustin Montero
Dereck Rodriguez 114.3 5.98 3.62 2.36 64 -1.5 Kirk McDonald

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Kyle Tucker and Dale Vs. Evil
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Kyle Tucker and Dale Vs. Evil

Interesting, that SB projection for Buxton feels pretty dang light, considering he was at 29 last year and left a lot of opportunities out there (ex: he appeared to have made a conscious decision to not steal 3B in 2017)