2018 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Mets position players actually put together a pretty strong campaign in 2017, recording the 11th-best WAR in the majors among their peers. That would normally represent some cause for optimism in terms of next season — would, that is, were the current roster to feature the same personnel as this past year’s. An inspection of that roster, however, reveals that four of the club’s top seven players by WAR from 2017 are no longer employed by the organization. Curtis Granderson (2.3 WAR for the Mets in 2017), Jay Bruce (2.0), Jose Reyes (2.0), and Neil Walker (1.4) have all departed either by way of trade or free agency.

The exodus of talent might pose some challenges to the 2018 edition of the Mets. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, it also might not. ZiPS calls for over seven wins combined from Yoenis Cespedes (projected for 500 PA and 3.4 zWAR) and Michael Conforto (513, 3.7), which would go some distance towards mitigating the losses of the club’s departed outfielders. The projections here also suggest that young shortstop Amed Rosario (594, 2.2) and young first baseman Dominic Smith (652, 2.5) could produce nearly five wins as a pair — this, after recording -0.3 WAR collectively in 2017. Those sorts of return would likely place the Mets’ field-playing contingent among the league’s middle third again.

Pitchers
The prognosis for the staff is less encouraging. Among Mets pitchers, only Jacob deGrom crossed the two-win threshold in 2017. Only deGrom (181.1 IP, 3.9 zWAR) and Noah Syndergaard (141.2, 4.1) are forecast to do it in 2018. There isn’t a lot of substance after that pair. For example: the third-ranked pitcher by projected WAR, Steven Matz (105.0, 1.7), is returning from an elbow injury that could complicate matters*. The fourth-best one, Marcos Molina (108.1, 1.3), has literally never appeared above Double-A.

*A reminder: ZiPS doesn’t account for injuries, specifically. Rather, it adjusts playing time based on a player’s history.

As for the Mets bullpen, it would likely also benefit from an upgrade. Mets relievers produced 1.2 WAR collectively in 2017. By comparison, four different members of the Yankees pen reached that same figure on their own. A healthy Jeurys Familia (57.0 IP, 73 ERA-, 1.2 zWAR) would benefit the club considerably. A full season of A.J. Ramos (57.1, 84, 1.0) would also help. If the club intends to lean on the bullpen more heavily in 2018, however, they’ll probably have to acquire more capable arms.

Bench/Prospects
While both Rosario and Smith exhausted their rookie eligibility in 2017, they’ve recorded fewer than 350 plate appearances between them. Were they to reach their projected win totals in 2018 — again, 2.2 and 2.5 WAR, respectively — that would solve a couple of problems for the club very quickly. Brandon Nimmo (474 PA, 0.8 zWAR) also exceeded the rookie limit this past season. Szymborski’s computer is less optimistic about him, although he might approach average-type production in a platoon role. Among rookie-eligible field players, Gavin Cecchini (570, 1.0) receives the top projection.

Again, there are fewer alternatives in the organization in terms of pitching. The aforementioned Marcos Molina (108.1 IP, 101 ERA-, 1.3 zWAR) isn’t the club’s top prospect but is the most ready for the majors, according to the projections here. Josh Smoker (70.1, 87, 0.9) is absent from the depth chart here but would be an asset in the bullpen, it seems. Ben Rowen (60.2, 86, 0.8) left as a minor-league free agent but is also well acquitted by ZiPS.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mets, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Michael Conforto L 25 LF 513 74 117 26 2 27 81 2 2
Yoenis Cespedes R 32 LF 500 69 122 26 3 25 78 3 2
Dominic Smith L 23 1B 652 76 164 31 2 20 82 1 1
Amed Rosario R 22 SS 594 61 145 21 10 9 51 20 8
Travis d’Arnaud R 29 C 379 42 90 19 1 13 49 0 0
Kevin Plawecki R 27 C 392 38 90 17 1 9 42 1 0
Wilmer Flores R 26 3B 433 51 109 20 1 19 65 1 1
Juan Lagares R 29 CF 366 40 85 17 3 5 28 8 3
Asdrubal Cabrera B 32 SS 540 63 129 29 3 15 60 4 2
Gavin Cecchini R 24 2B 570 60 134 26 3 8 47 4 4
Jose Reyes B 35 SS 492 65 114 21 5 12 49 19 5
Phillip Evans R 25 3B 506 49 113 22 2 8 42 2 2
Tomas Nido R 24 C 408 39 90 19 2 9 43 0 1
Brandon Nimmo L 25 CF 474 55 96 18 4 9 43 4 3
Jhoan Urena B 23 3B 547 58 113 24 3 13 55 9 2
T.J. Rivera R 29 3B 430 46 107 19 1 8 47 2 1
Victor Cruzado B 26 CF 376 38 73 11 3 7 31 3 4
Nori Aoki L 36 LF 407 48 100 18 3 4 30 10 5
Luis Guillorme L 23 2B 565 54 125 19 1 1 32 3 3
Peter Alonso R 23 1B 407 47 91 23 2 16 53 2 5
Patrick Mazeika L 24 C 402 41 85 20 0 5 33 1 1
Josh Rodriguez R 33 3B 392 39 77 13 2 10 37 4 2
Desmond Jennings R 31 CF 257 28 53 11 2 7 23 4 3
Kevin Taylor L 26 LF 454 45 97 17 1 5 34 1 1
Xorge Carrillo R 29 C 303 29 64 11 0 7 27 0 1
Jeff McNeil L 26 2B 390 40 86 15 2 4 31 7 4
Matt Reynolds R 26 SS 461 46 89 18 3 7 41 9 3
David Wright R 35 3B 291 29 61 11 0 6 29 3 2
Travis Taijeron R 29 RF 529 61 98 26 2 19 63 1 2
L.J. Mazzilli R 27 2B 445 43 90 18 3 6 35 7 3
David Thompson R 24 3B 508 51 107 25 2 12 52 6 3
Jayce Boyd R 27 LF 318 32 69 15 1 6 30 2 1
Anthony Dimino L 24 C 236 22 51 7 1 0 11 8 5
Kevin Kaczmarski L 26 RF 493 49 103 19 5 4 36 11 7
Cody Decker R 31 1B 341 37 61 14 1 15 43 0 1
Travis Snider L 30 LF 412 40 82 16 1 8 34 1 2
Jiovanni Mier R 27 3B 322 28 59 13 1 5 25 3 3
Gustavo Nunez B 30 SS 331 29 71 9 2 2 20 9 7
Matt Oberste R 26 1B 497 47 104 21 3 7 43 2 1
John Mora L 25 CF 553 51 109 19 6 4 38 12 11
Wuilmer Becerra R 23 RF 500 41 102 17 1 3 30 11 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Michael Conforto 513 10.7% 24.6% .248 .302 .261 .349 .509 .360 125
Yoenis Cespedes 500 7.0% 20.2% .234 .290 .268 .322 .502 .342 113
Dominic Smith 652 6.7% 18.9% .158 .312 .272 .324 .430 .322 100
Amed Rosario 594 4.4% 19.9% .121 .311 .259 .295 .380 .289 79
Travis d’Arnaud 379 6.6% 16.4% .172 .280 .259 .312 .431 .315 96
Kevin Plawecki 392 6.6% 16.3% .129 .282 .253 .311 .382 .299 85
Wilmer Flores 433 5.1% 14.8% .197 .278 .270 .310 .467 .326 103
Juan Lagares 366 4.4% 19.4% .112 .300 .250 .289 .362 .280 73
Asdrubal Cabrera 540 7.8% 16.7% .164 .295 .265 .327 .429 .323 101
Gavin Cecchini 570 6.8% 14.9% .106 .290 .255 .308 .361 .292 80
Jose Reyes 492 7.5% 13.8% .150 .276 .255 .311 .405 .307 91
Phillip Evans 506 6.1% 19.4% .107 .287 .240 .291 .347 .278 71
Tomas Nido 408 4.7% 20.3% .131 .274 .234 .270 .365 .272 67
Brandon Nimmo 474 11.8% 26.4% .129 .312 .233 .330 .362 .305 89
Jhoan Urena 547 7.7% 26.9% .138 .291 .225 .285 .363 .280 73
T.J. Rivera 430 3.7% 15.3% .111 .298 .266 .301 .377 .292 81
Victor Cruzado 376 9.6% 26.6% .112 .284 .216 .293 .328 .274 69
Nori Aoki 407 7.1% 10.1% .098 .295 .272 .332 .370 .307 91
Luis Guillorme 565 8.0% 12.9% .047 .282 .245 .307 .292 .269 66
Peter Alonso 407 4.9% 22.4% .198 .276 .241 .292 .439 .310 92
Patrick Mazeika 402 8.2% 17.4% .098 .282 .238 .318 .336 .292 80
Josh Rodriguez 392 7.7% 28.6% .131 .283 .216 .279 .347 .273 68
Desmond Jennings 257 7.8% 22.2% .156 .271 .228 .293 .384 .290 79
Kevin Taylor 454 8.8% 15.9% .084 .276 .238 .309 .322 .280 73
Xorge Carrillo 303 5.3% 22.4% .115 .277 .229 .281 .344 .272 67
Jeff McNeil 390 5.1% 17.7% .087 .287 .241 .295 .328 .272 67
Matt Reynolds 461 6.7% 27.5% .107 .283 .212 .270 .319 .258 58
David Wright 291 10.3% 25.4% .111 .306 .236 .316 .347 .291 80
Travis Taijeron 529 10.0% 34.8% .188 .300 .212 .304 .400 .305 89
L.J. Mazzilli 445 7.6% 20.4% .104 .271 .223 .284 .327 .268 64
David Thompson 508 5.1% 22.8% .138 .273 .228 .274 .366 .274 69
Jayce Boyd 318 7.2% 20.1% .120 .284 .237 .299 .357 .287 77
Anthony Dimino 236 8.1% 16.9% .042 .291 .238 .302 .280 .263 61
Kevin Kaczmarski 493 7.9% 20.5% .092 .290 .233 .300 .325 .275 69
Cody Decker 341 7.0% 37.8% .196 .271 .196 .258 .392 .277 71
Travis Snider 412 9.2% 24.8% .113 .281 .221 .294 .334 .275 69
Jiovanni Mier 322 6.2% 25.5% .102 .257 .201 .256 .303 .246 50
Gustavo Nunez 331 4.8% 17.8% .061 .277 .231 .269 .292 .246 50
Matt Oberste 497 6.4% 24.3% .105 .291 .228 .282 .333 .268 65
John Mora 553 6.7% 22.8% .085 .277 .215 .273 .300 .253 55
Wuilmer Becerra 500 4.6% 30.0% .060 .313 .218 .265 .278 .240 47

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Michael Conforto 513 6.4 130 4 3.7 Pat Burrell
Yoenis Cespedes 500 5.9 120 9 3.4 Willie Horton
Dominic Smith 652 5.2 103 8 2.5 Adam Lind
Amed Rosario 594 4.2 82 5 2.2 Alex Gonzalez
Travis d’Arnaud 379 4.9 100 -3 1.9 Ramon Hernandez
Kevin Plawecki 392 4.3 88 0 1.7 Dan Wilson
Wilmer Flores 433 5.3 108 -5 1.6 Dib Williams
Juan Lagares 366 3.8 76 11 1.6 Rufino Linares
Asdrubal Cabrera 540 5.2 104 -16 1.2 Johnny Logan
Gavin Cecchini 570 4.0 82 -1 1.0 Dominic Rich
Jose Reyes 492 4.8 93 -12 0.9 Omar Vizquel
Phillip Evans 506 3.5 73 5 0.9 Ofilio Castro
Tomas Nido 408 3.4 71 1 0.8 Jason Hill
Brandon Nimmo 474 4.2 89 -7 0.8 Rich Becker
Jhoan Urena 547 3.7 75 1 0.8 Matt Tuiasosopo
T.J. Rivera 430 4.2 83 -1 0.8 Scott Livingstone
Victor Cruzado 376 3.2 69 6 0.8 Ntema Ndungidi
Nori Aoki 407 4.5 91 -1 0.6 Russ Snyder
Luis Guillorme 565 3.1 65 6 0.6 Mike Bordick
Peter Alonso 407 4.3 96 2 0.6 Aubrey Huff
Patrick Mazeika 402 3.8 79 -8 0.6 Steve Christmas
Josh Rodriguez 392 3.3 69 4 0.5 Jason Wood
Desmond Jennings 257 3.8 82 0 0.4 Damon Buford
Kevin Taylor 454 3.5 73 6 0.4 Ray Harvey
Xorge Carrillo 303 3.3 69 -2 0.3 Jeff Smith
Jeff McNeil 390 3.4 69 2 0.3 Juan Melo
Matt Reynolds 461 3.0 56 2 0.3 Travis Dawkins
David Wright 291 3.8 81 -3 0.2 Wes Helms
Travis Taijeron 529 4.1 90 -7 0.1 Pat Adams
L.J. Mazzilli 445 3.3 66 -1 -0.1 Ricky Magdaleno
David Thompson 508 3.5 72 -4 -0.2 Eric Duncan
Jayce Boyd 318 3.8 78 -3 -0.3 Tim McWilliam
Anthony Dimino 236 2.9 60 -5 -0.3 Andy Allanson
Kevin Kaczmarski 493 3.4 71 2 -0.3 Mike Kingery
Cody Decker 341 3.3 74 2 -0.3 Dustan Mohr
Travis Snider 412 3.3 71 0 -0.5 Tom Grant
Jiovanni Mier 322 2.5 52 2 -0.5 Colin Dixon
Gustavo Nunez 331 2.6 53 -2 -0.7 Jackie Gutierrez
Matt Oberste 497 3.3 67 2 -1.0 Juan Tejeda
John Mora 553 2.6 56 -1 -1.0 Nathan Panther
Wuilmer Becerra 500 2.6 48 -2 -2.2 Mark Doran

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Noah Syndergaard R 25 25 24 141.7 169 32 12 121 48 45
Jacob deGrom R 30 29 29 181.3 191 48 20 162 73 68
Steven Matz L 27 20 20 105.0 98 35 12 105 48 45
Marcos Molina R 23 20 19 108.3 78 35 11 113 54 50
Jeurys Familia R 28 59 0 57.0 61 25 3 47 20 19
Robert Gsellman R 24 29 27 142.7 103 47 18 154 76 71
A.J. Ramos R 31 61 0 57.3 72 34 5 45 24 22
Jerry Blevins L 34 67 0 45.3 59 20 4 36 17 16
Josh Smoker L 28 67 0 70.3 100 29 10 57 30 28
Ben Rowen R 29 51 0 60.7 43 16 4 62 26 24
P.J. Conlon L 24 27 23 128.3 89 45 16 138 71 66
Matt Harvey R 29 22 22 114.3 87 35 15 118 63 59
Corey Taylor R 25 47 0 63.7 41 20 4 67 29 27
Matt Purke L 27 47 0 62.3 64 36 5 55 29 27
Chris Flexen R 23 17 17 87.7 72 34 12 90 48 45
Wilfredo Boscan R 28 25 23 116.0 67 41 13 129 66 62
Zack Wheeler R 28 16 16 99.3 95 41 15 97 56 52
Corey Oswalt R 24 23 23 115.0 90 42 17 123 65 61
Chasen Bradford R 28 44 0 53.0 38 11 5 56 25 23
Paul Sewald R 28 60 0 67.7 76 22 10 62 33 31
Drew Smith R 24 43 0 53.7 47 27 4 51 26 24
Jamie Callahan R 23 49 0 61.0 60 31 5 57 30 28
Seth Lugo R 28 25 21 119.7 98 32 21 129 70 65
Neil Wagner R 34 38 1 44.7 40 22 4 43 22 21
Jacob Rhame R 25 56 0 63.7 71 22 10 60 32 30
Hansel Robles R 27 65 0 76.3 81 37 11 69 40 37
Tim Peterson R 27 44 0 51.7 51 17 8 51 27 25
Kyle Regnault L 29 42 0 57.0 54 29 6 55 30 28
Josh Edgin L 31 50 0 39.0 35 22 4 38 20 19
Cory Burns R 30 43 0 55.3 49 24 7 55 30 28
Kevin McGowan R 26 51 2 76.0 64 30 11 77 42 39
Rafael Montero R 27 35 23 138.3 132 72 20 144 83 78
Ricky Knapp R 26 27 26 153.0 87 44 23 176 93 87
Tyler Bashlor R 24 39 0 50.7 62 35 6 44 28 26
Jonathan Albaladejo R 35 19 5 46.7 33 17 7 52 28 26
Logan Taylor R 26 40 2 55.7 52 33 7 55 33 31
Kelly Secrest L 26 32 1 47.7 45 31 6 47 29 27
Erik Goeddel R 29 56 0 58.0 57 26 10 58 34 32
Tom Gorzelanny L 35 34 1 29.3 30 20 4 30 19 18
Tyler Pill R 28 22 20 115.0 77 38 21 131 74 69
Alberto Baldonado L 25 50 0 56.7 59 35 10 56 36 34
Tommy Milone L 31 23 17 98.0 71 26 23 113 66 62
Luis Mateo R 28 38 3 53.3 43 25 11 59 36 34
Blake Beavan R 29 15 12 74.3 45 24 16 89 52 49
Mickey Jannis R 30 19 19 96.3 55 53 14 110 66 62
Beck Wheeler R 29 41 1 57.3 55 39 11 59 41 38
Donovan Hand R 32 27 19 115.3 68 36 24 136 79 74
Mitch Atkins R 32 19 16 89.3 68 37 22 105 68 64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Noah Syndergaard 141.7 578 29.2% 5.5% .301 2.86 2.57 69 60
Jacob deGrom 181.3 754 25.3% 6.4% .288 3.37 3.26 82 76
Steven Matz 105.0 455 21.5% 7.7% .304 3.86 3.83 94 89
Marcos Molina 108.3 473 16.5% 7.4% .297 4.15 4.06 101 94
Jeurys Familia 57.0 243 25.1% 10.3% .288 3.00 2.86 73 66
Robert Gsellman 142.7 629 16.4% 7.5% .300 4.48 4.47 109 103
A.J. Ramos 57.3 251 28.7% 13.6% .292 3.45 3.61 84 84
Jerry Blevins 45.3 192 30.7% 10.4% .299 3.18 2.96 77 68
Josh Smoker 70.3 297 33.7% 9.8% .303 3.58 3.44 87 80
Ben Rowen 60.7 260 16.5% 6.2% .299 3.56 3.44 86 80
P.J. Conlon 128.3 568 15.7% 7.9% .297 4.63 4.51 112 104
Matt Harvey 114.3 496 17.5% 7.1% .290 4.64 4.31 112 100
Corey Taylor 63.7 278 14.7% 7.2% .300 3.82 3.68 93 85
Matt Purke 62.3 278 23.0% 13.0% .294 3.90 3.98 95 92
Chris Flexen 87.7 387 18.6% 8.8% .295 4.62 4.63 112 107
Wilfredo Boscan 116.0 518 12.9% 7.9% .297 4.81 4.65 117 108
Zack Wheeler 99.3 436 21.8% 9.4% .293 4.71 4.57 114 106
Corey Oswalt 115.0 510 17.6% 8.2% .299 4.77 4.79 116 111
Chasen Bradford 53.0 226 16.8% 4.9% .300 3.91 3.63 95 84
Paul Sewald 67.7 287 26.5% 7.7% .295 4.12 3.85 100 89
Drew Smith 53.7 239 19.7% 11.3% .299 4.02 4.00 97 92
Jamie Callahan 61.0 271 22.1% 11.4% .302 4.13 3.93 100 91
Seth Lugo 119.7 520 18.8% 6.2% .297 4.89 4.70 118 109
Neil Wagner 44.7 199 20.1% 11.0% .297 4.23 4.07 103 94
Jacob Rhame 63.7 273 26.0% 8.1% .299 4.24 4.10 103 95
Hansel Robles 76.3 335 24.2% 11.0% .286 4.36 4.40 106 102
Tim Peterson 51.7 223 22.9% 7.6% .298 4.35 4.24 105 98
Kyle Regnault 57.0 255 21.2% 11.4% .301 4.42 4.26 107 99
Josh Edgin 39.0 177 19.8% 12.4% .301 4.38 4.54 106 105
Cory Burns 55.3 245 20.0% 9.8% .296 4.55 4.39 110 102
Kevin McGowan 76.0 335 19.1% 9.0% .292 4.62 4.70 112 109
Rafael Montero 138.3 631 20.9% 11.4% .309 5.07 4.71 123 109
Ricky Knapp 153.0 679 12.8% 6.5% .297 5.12 4.99 124 116
Tyler Bashlor 50.7 231 26.8% 15.1% .304 4.62 4.50 112 104
Jonathan Albaladejo 46.7 209 15.8% 8.1% .302 5.01 4.85 121 112
Logan Taylor 55.7 255 20.4% 12.9% .300 5.01 4.86 121 113
Kelly Secrest 47.7 221 20.4% 14.0% .301 5.10 4.98 124 115
Erik Goeddel 58.0 258 22.1% 10.1% .294 4.97 4.78 120 111
Tom Gorzelanny 29.3 138 21.8% 14.5% .314 5.52 4.93 134 114
Tyler Pill 115.0 514 15.0% 7.4% .296 5.40 5.31 131 123
Alberto Baldonado 56.7 261 22.6% 13.4% .299 5.40 5.33 131 123
Tommy Milone 98.0 433 16.4% 6.0% .290 5.69 5.59 138 129
Luis Mateo 53.3 244 17.6% 10.3% .296 5.74 5.75 139 133
Blake Beavan 74.3 336 13.4% 7.1% .296 5.93 5.84 144 135
Mickey Jannis 96.3 452 12.2% 11.7% .296 5.79 5.71 140 132
Beck Wheeler 57.3 270 20.4% 14.4% .296 5.97 5.88 145 136
Donovan Hand 115.3 518 13.1% 7.0% .293 5.77 5.78 140 134
Mitch Atkins 89.3 410 16.6% 9.0% .300 6.45 6.28 156 145

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Noah Syndergaard 141.7 10.73 2.03 0.76 138 4.1 Dwight Gooden
Jacob deGrom 181.3 9.48 2.38 0.99 117 3.9 Kevin Brown
Steven Matz 105.0 8.40 3.00 1.03 102 1.7 Steve Trout
Marcos Molina 108.3 6.48 2.91 0.91 95 1.3 Early Wynn
Jeurys Familia 57.0 9.63 3.95 0.47 132 1.2 John Riedling
Robert Gsellman 142.7 6.50 2.96 1.14 88 1.1 Cha-Seung Baek
A.J. Ramos 57.3 11.31 5.34 0.79 114 1.0 Turk Wendell
Jerry Blevins 45.3 11.72 3.97 0.79 124 0.9 Keith Comstock
Josh Smoker 70.3 12.80 3.71 1.28 110 0.9 Willie Hernandez
Ben Rowen 60.7 6.38 2.37 0.59 112 0.8 John Boozer
P.J. Conlon 128.3 6.24 3.16 1.12 85 0.8 Jeff Mutis
Matt Harvey 114.3 6.85 2.76 1.18 85 0.7 Steve Finch
Corey Taylor 63.7 5.79 2.83 0.57 103 0.6 Donnie Moore
Matt Purke 62.3 9.25 5.20 0.72 101 0.5 Clay Bryant
Chris Flexen 87.7 7.39 3.49 1.23 85 0.5 Greg Brummett
Wilfredo Boscan 116.0 5.20 3.18 1.01 83 0.5 Howie Fox
Zack Wheeler 99.3 8.61 3.72 1.36 84 0.5 Chris Brock
Corey Oswalt 115.0 7.04 3.29 1.33 83 0.5 Shawn Hill
Chasen Bradford 53.0 6.45 1.87 0.85 101 0.5 Tom Morgan
Paul Sewald 67.7 10.10 2.92 1.33 96 0.4 Rich Monteleone
Drew Smith 53.7 7.88 4.53 0.67 98 0.4 Hal Reniff
Jamie Callahan 61.0 8.85 4.57 0.74 96 0.3 Anthony Chavez
Seth Lugo 119.7 7.37 2.41 1.58 81 0.3 Greg Wooten
Neil Wagner 44.7 8.05 4.43 0.81 95 0.3 Milo Candini
Jacob Rhame 63.7 10.03 3.11 1.41 93 0.3 Chad Ricketts
Hansel Robles 76.3 9.55 4.36 1.30 91 0.2 Mark Acre
Tim Peterson 51.7 8.88 2.96 1.39 91 0.1 Jeff Tam
Kyle Regnault 57.0 8.53 4.58 0.95 89 0.1 Tippy Martinez
Josh Edgin 39.0 8.08 5.08 0.92 90 0.1 Bill Kennedy
Cory Burns 55.3 7.97 3.91 1.14 88 0.1 Mike Bumstead
Kevin McGowan 76.0 7.58 3.55 1.30 86 0.0 Todd Williams
Rafael Montero 138.3 8.59 4.69 1.30 78 0.0 Charlie Manning
Ricky Knapp 153.0 5.12 2.59 1.35 77 0.0 A.J. Sager
Tyler Bashlor 50.7 11.01 6.21 1.07 85 0.0 Jeff Smith
Jonathan Albaladejo 46.7 6.36 3.28 1.35 79 0.0 Bob Scanlan
Logan Taylor 55.7 8.40 5.33 1.13 79 -0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb
Kelly Secrest 47.7 8.49 5.85 1.13 77 -0.3 Jeff Ridgway
Erik Goeddel 58.0 8.84 4.03 1.55 80 -0.3 James Warden
Tom Gorzelanny 29.3 9.22 6.14 1.23 72 -0.3 Ernie Camacho
Tyler Pill 115.0 6.03 2.97 1.64 73 -0.4 Pat Ahearne
Alberto Baldonado 56.7 9.37 5.56 1.59 73 -0.6 Carlos Cabassa
Tommy Milone 98.0 6.52 2.39 2.11 70 -0.6 Brian Tollberg
Luis Mateo 53.3 7.26 4.22 1.86 69 -0.7 Mario Ramos
Blake Beavan 74.3 5.45 2.91 1.94 67 -0.7 Mark Johnson
Mickey Jannis 96.3 5.14 4.95 1.31 68 -0.8 Dick Fowler
Beck Wheeler 57.3 8.64 6.13 1.73 66 -1.0 Marty McLeary
Donovan Hand 115.3 5.31 2.81 1.87 68 -1.0 Allen Davis
Mitch Atkins 89.3 6.85 3.73 2.22 61 -1.5 Nerio Rodriguez

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – New York Mets by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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southie

Doc Gooden. Oh my