2018 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Yankees’ roster, as presently constructed, is unusual. The prospective starting lineup features, on the one hand, two of this past season’s legitimately best players. It includes at least three others, however, who are projected for one or fewer wins in 2018. It doesn’t seem as though Brian Cashman et al. have specifically set out to assemble a stars-and-scrubs roster. That seems to have been the result so far, though.

The core of the offense, clearly, is formed by Aaron Judge (621 PA, 4.7 zWAR) and Giancarlo Stanton (593, 6.4). Dan Szymborski’s computer calls for that pair to record just over 11 wins together — as in, that’s the mean projected outcome, tempered by regression and aging and whatever. By comparison, consider: less than a third of clubs in 2017 featured teammates who produced observed combined win totals of 11 or greater. Four whole teams, in fact, failed to cross the 11-win threshold this past season. Judge and Stanton, in other words, represent a strong foundation for the offense.

What remains to be seen is how the club builds on that foundation. Greg Bird (372 PA, 1.1 zWAR), Ronald Torreyes (395, 0.1), and Miguel Andujar (576, 1.2) are, for now, the most likely Opening Day starters at first, second, and third base, respectively. They’re forecast for fewer than three wins between them. Bird’s modest wins projection is the result, in part, of a modest playing-time projection — not surprising for a player who’s recorded only 200 or so professional plate appearances over the last two seasons. As for Andujar and Torreyes, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to find them relegated to a bench role before the offseason is complete.

Pitchers
Yankees pitchers produced the second-highest WAR figure among major-league staffs this past season, and almost everyone from that class returns in 2018. Sonny Gray (168.1 IP, 3.4 zWAR), Luis Severino (187.0, 4.7), and Masahiro Tanaka (173.0, 3.5) form an imposing front end to the rotation, while Jordan Montgomery (151.0, 2.1) and CC Sabathia (131.7, 1.6) are both forecast to prevent runs at a slightly above-average rate.

More notable, however — indeed, possibly historic — is the club’s bullpen. Aroldis Chapman (52.1, 55 ERA-, 1.8 zWAR) is the nominal closer, but any of the pitchers featured in the depth-chart image below is capable of handling high-leverage innings. Dellin Betances (60.2, 67, 1.5), Chad Green (73.0, 67, 1.6), and David Robertson (59.2, 62, 1.7) are all forecast to record ERAs at least 30% better than league average. Tommy Kahnle (60.1, 71, 1.3) just misses that entirely arbitrary threshold.

Bench/Prospects
If the early projected standings are any indication, each marginal win will carry exaggerated importance for the Yankees this year, meaning that the win separating Ronald Torreyes’s projection from the one assessed to prospect Gleyber Torres (426 PA, 1.5 zWAR) might have some bearing on the club’s place in the standings. Torres is a candidate for the Opening Day roster according to general manager Brian Cashman. If not Torres, then Tyler Wade (512, 1.2) is also an option. Both players have experience at third base, as well. They receive the top projections among the organization’s rookie-eligible position players.

Among pitchers, right-handed prospect Chance Adams (132.2 IP, 103, ERA-, 1.4 zWAR) receives the top WAR projection among those players omitted from the depth-chart image below, while Giovanny Gallegos (65.0, 82, 0.9), Jonathan Holder (61.2 IP, 76 ERA-, 1.0), and Chasen Shreve (56.2, 86, 0.6) are all forecast to produce numbers not typically found among bullpen depth pieces.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Giancarlo Stanton R 28 RF 593 100 140 27 2 55 137 2 2
Aaron Judge R 26 RF 621 100 132 23 2 43 112 7 3
Todd Frazier R 32 3B 583 77 127 24 1 31 98 9 6
Gary Sanchez R 25 C 532 74 126 24 0 32 97 3 1
Brett Gardner L 34 LF 608 83 139 23 5 15 56 17 4
Didi Gregorius L 28 SS 593 69 147 26 2 20 77 5 1
Aaron Hicks B 28 CF 423 53 91 18 2 14 52 10 5
Gleyber Torres R 21 SS 426 52 94 18 3 17 51 12 13
Jacoby Ellsbury L 34 CF 473 61 113 19 4 8 45 20 5
Tyler Wade L 23 SS 512 62 109 19 4 10 41 23 6
Miguel Andujar R 23 3B 576 64 143 31 3 17 73 4 3
Jabari Blash R 28 RF 440 61 80 16 1 25 70 4 3
Greg Bird L 25 1B 372 49 77 20 0 19 60 0 0
Clint Frazier R 23 LF 496 63 108 24 5 20 67 9 3
Billy McKinney L 23 RF 512 56 110 23 6 13 53 1 2
Tyler Austin R 26 1B 395 48 84 18 2 18 58 3 1
Nick Solak R 23 2B 514 56 111 20 3 11 46 9 4
Kyle Higashioka R 28 C 317 38 71 16 1 13 51 0 1
Jake Cave L 25 CF 501 55 109 20 5 15 57 5 4
Thairo Estrada R 22 SS 565 61 136 20 4 9 48 9 10
Erik Kratz R 38 C 273 26 51 10 1 7 25 3 1
Ji-Man Choi L 27 1B 339 39 70 16 1 13 44 3 3
Francisco Diaz B 28 C 206 18 42 7 1 1 12 1 0
Austin Romine R 29 C 276 26 62 13 0 6 31 0 0
Estevan Florial L 20 CF 471 51 86 14 4 16 48 15 7
Chace Numata B 25 C 344 31 71 13 1 3 27 1 1
Ronald Torreyes R 25 2B 395 39 95 15 3 3 32 4 3
Donovan Solano R 30 2B 435 41 101 20 1 6 40 1 1
Abiatal Avelino R 23 2B 453 46 102 19 4 7 40 12 6
Dante Bichette Jr. R 25 3B 390 38 76 15 1 8 37 1 1
Matt Holliday R 38 1B 412 44 84 16 0 16 59 1 0
Wilkin Castillo B 34 C 176 15 34 6 1 2 12 1 2
Billy Fleming R 25 2B 358 38 80 16 2 7 37 3 2
Mark Payton L 26 LF 427 44 88 15 4 10 40 5 6
Hoy Jun Park L 22 SS 518 52 98 13 7 7 39 18 6
Cito Culver R 25 SS 430 39 76 15 2 8 37 3 2
Ryan McBroom R 26 1B 543 57 110 21 0 19 67 2 3
Donny Sands R 22 C 376 34 80 15 0 7 36 2 7
Zack Zehner R 25 LF 456 45 83 17 3 8 39 5 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Giancarlo Stanton 593 12.0% 28.2% .383 .289 .273 .366 .656 .413 161
Aaron Judge 621 14.3% 32.4% .299 .314 .253 .364 .552 .381 139
Todd Frazier 583 10.3% 22.3% .233 .271 .249 .334 .482 .345 115
Gary Sanchez 532 7.3% 23.3% .249 .285 .261 .323 .510 .350 118
Brett Gardner 608 10.2% 18.9% .147 .307 .262 .345 .409 .328 103
Didi Gregorius 593 4.7% 13.5% .163 .278 .267 .306 .430 .312 92
Aaron Hicks 423 11.6% 20.1% .174 .282 .247 .334 .421 .325 101
Gleyber Torres 426 9.2% 27.5% .197 .310 .247 .321 .444 .327 102
Jacoby Ellsbury 473 8.2% 15.2% .120 .302 .265 .331 .385 .311 91
Tyler Wade 512 8.4% 23.0% .124 .296 .236 .306 .360 .292 78
Miguel Andujar 576 4.9% 15.6% .164 .290 .267 .307 .432 .313 93
Jabari Blash 440 13.0% 37.3% .251 .297 .216 .332 .466 .341 112
Greg Bird 372 11.8% 25.3% .240 .274 .240 .333 .480 .344 114
Clint Frazier 496 8.5% 26.8% .211 .296 .243 .309 .454 .322 99
Billy McKinney 512 7.4% 22.9% .161 .288 .239 .300 .399 .299 83
Tyler Austin 395 8.9% 31.4% .214 .306 .237 .306 .451 .320 98
Nick Solak 514 8.4% 22.4% .128 .296 .241 .312 .369 .297 82
Kyle Higashioka 317 6.3% 22.7% .194 .274 .241 .287 .435 .304 86
Jake Cave 501 6.2% 30.1% .162 .314 .235 .287 .397 .292 78
Thairo Estrada 565 5.3% 14.3% .104 .289 .258 .303 .362 .290 77
Erik Kratz 273 6.6% 26.7% .133 .260 .206 .272 .339 .266 60
Ji-Man Choi 339 10.6% 25.4% .194 .285 .238 .322 .432 .320 97
Francisco Diaz 206 5.8% 17.0% .063 .266 .222 .271 .286 .247 47
Austin Romine 276 5.4% 19.9% .121 .284 .242 .285 .363 .278 69
Estevan Florial 471 7.9% 38.9% .163 .300 .200 .265 .363 .270 63
Chace Numata 344 6.4% 16.0% .076 .262 .225 .280 .301 .256 54
Ronald Torreyes 395 3.8% 11.1% .082 .284 .258 .290 .340 .274 66
Donovan Solano 435 4.4% 17.2% .098 .288 .248 .284 .346 .272 65
Abiatal Avelino 453 5.1% 17.9% .114 .283 .242 .286 .356 .278 69
Dante Bichette Jr. 390 8.2% 25.4% .116 .273 .215 .282 .331 .269 63
Matt Holliday 412 9.0% 23.8% .174 .266 .229 .306 .403 .306 88
Wilkin Castillo 176 4.5% 14.8% .085 .234 .207 .247 .293 .236 40
Billy Fleming 358 5.3% 18.7% .124 .280 .242 .288 .366 .281 71
Mark Payton 427 7.3% 23.0% .137 .276 .227 .287 .363 .280 70
Hoy Jun Park 518 8.1% 23.2% .103 .267 .210 .283 .313 .264 59
Cito Culver 430 7.0% 33.3% .109 .278 .193 .251 .303 .243 44
Ryan McBroom 543 5.3% 29.3% .156 .278 .220 .273 .377 .278 69
Donny Sands 376 5.1% 21.0% .103 .272 .228 .269 .330 .261 57
Zack Zehner 456 9.6% 32.7% .115 .296 .203 .281 .318 .266 60

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton 593 8.9 168 8 6.4 Harmon Killebrew
Aaron Judge 621 7.3 143 4 4.7 Tim Salmon
Todd Frazier 583 5.7 117 4 3.5 Rico Petrocelli
Gary Sanchez 532 6.1 120 -6 3.2 Chris Hoiles
Brett Gardner 608 5.4 103 6 2.3 Milt Thompson
Didi Gregorius 593 4.9 96 1 2.2 Bill Mazeroski
Aaron Hicks 423 5.0 103 3 1.9 Ron Roenicke
Gleyber Torres 426 4.7 104 -3 1.5 Jay Bell
Jacoby Ellsbury 473 4.9 93 -1 1.3 Milt Thompson
Tyler Wade 512 4.1 80 1 1.2 Jason Donald
Miguel Andujar 576 4.8 97 -4 1.2 Luis Lopez
Jabari Blash 440 5.3 113 -4 1.2 Mike Simms
Greg Bird 372 5.7 116 -1 1.1 David Ortiz
Clint Frazier 496 5.1 103 -1 1.0 Brandon Jones
Billy McKinney 512 4.2 87 9 0.9 Chris Lubanski
Tyler Austin 395 4.9 101 2 0.7 Jeff Baker
Nick Solak 514 4.1 83 -1 0.7 Nate Spears
Kyle Higashioka 317 4.4 92 -4 0.6 Bobby Hughes
Jake Cave 501 4.0 82 -1 0.4 Mike Patterson
Thairo Estrada 565 3.8 79 -3 0.4 Jose Castro
Erik Kratz 273 3.2 64 1 0.3 Joe Oliver
Ji-Man Choi 339 4.8 102 -2 0.2 Larry Broadway
Francisco Diaz 206 2.7 51 4 0.2 Chris Tremie
Austin Romine 276 3.7 74 -2 0.2 Willie Morales
Estevan Florial 471 3.3 68 4 0.2 Daryl Boston
Chace Numata 344 2.9 57 3 0.2 Drew Butera
Ronald Torreyes 395 3.5 70 3 0.1 Ismael Gallo
Donovan Solano 435 3.5 69 2 0.0 Steve Sisco
Abiatal Avelino 453 3.6 73 -3 -0.3 Brett Harrison
Dante Bichette Jr. 390 3.2 65 0 -0.3 Brad Seitzer
Matt Holliday 412 4.3 90 -5 -0.4 Bob Brenly
Wilkin Castillo 176 2.3 45 0 -0.4 Frank Charles
Billy Fleming 358 3.7 75 -6 -0.5 Sam Bozanich
Mark Payton 427 3.5 75 1 -0.6 Nathan Panther
Hoy Jun Park 518 3.2 61 -5 -0.6 Karl Allaire
Cito Culver 430 2.5 49 1 -0.8 Brad Harman
Ryan McBroom 543 3.5 73 1 -1.1 Tommy Everidge
Donny Sands 376 2.8 61 -11 -1.3 Jason Hill
Zack Zehner 456 3.0 62 -1 -1.3 Mark Chasey

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Luis Severino R 24 31 31 187.0 216 47 20 161 70 65
Masahiro Tanaka R 29 28 28 173.0 172 33 25 160 75 70
Sonny Gray R 28 28 28 168.3 157 54 20 151 76 71
Jordan Montgomery L 25 29 29 151.0 142 52 21 146 76 71
Aroldis Chapman L 30 54 0 52.3 82 23 4 34 15 14
David Robertson R 33 57 0 59.7 86 21 6 42 19 18
CC Sabathia L 37 24 24 131.7 107 43 19 136 68 64
Chad Green R 27 59 0 73.0 99 24 8 56 26 24
Dellin Betances R 30 65 0 60.7 92 36 5 41 21 20
Chance Adams R 23 27 27 132.7 120 59 19 129 72 67
Tommy Kahnle R 28 63 0 60.3 82 28 5 46 22 21
Jaime Garcia L 31 25 25 141.3 117 48 23 146 79 74
Adam Warren R 30 54 0 60.0 58 20 5 51 25 23
Jonathan Holder R 25 52 0 61.7 68 15 7 56 25 23
Domingo German R 25 26 19 113.3 110 40 19 113 62 58
Giovanny Gallegos R 26 43 0 65.0 85 18 10 55 28 26
Ben Heller R 26 52 0 58.3 76 29 8 48 27 25
Domingo Acevedo R 24 22 22 117.7 105 37 23 125 70 65
Justus Sheffield L 22 21 21 99.0 80 45 15 103 58 54
Chasen Shreve L 27 55 0 56.7 74 26 8 47 26 24
David Sosebee R 24 40 0 65.0 56 28 8 64 33 31
Josh Rogers L 23 18 18 97.7 64 22 19 113 61 57
Luis Cessa R 26 25 20 115.7 93 40 22 124 72 67
Brody Koerner R 24 18 18 100.3 56 32 17 117 63 59
Cody Carroll R 25 35 2 67.7 71 46 9 63 40 37
Cale Coshow R 25 41 5 73.7 65 39 11 76 45 42
J.P. Feyereisen R 25 41 0 57.0 58 33 9 55 33 31
Dan Camarena L 25 23 22 112.7 72 35 23 131 74 69
Dillon Tate R 24 16 14 75.7 49 38 13 86 51 48
Albert Abreu R 22 18 14 64.0 59 45 14 68 48 45
Brady Lail R 24 26 23 128.3 81 48 31 153 95 89

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Luis Severino 187.0 769 28.1% 6.1% .294 3.13 3.10 71 68
Masahiro Tanaka 173.0 712 24.2% 4.6% .282 3.64 3.69 82 81
Sonny Gray 168.3 710 22.1% 7.6% .275 3.80 3.83 86 85
Jordan Montgomery 151.0 651 21.8% 8.0% .290 4.23 4.22 96 93
Aroldis Chapman 52.3 214 38.3% 10.7% .291 2.41 2.39 55 53
David Robertson 59.7 242 35.5% 8.7% .283 2.72 2.59 62 57
CC Sabathia 131.7 574 18.6% 7.5% .293 4.37 4.50 99 99
Chad Green 73.0 299 33.1% 8.0% .291 2.96 2.98 67 66
Dellin Betances 60.7 259 35.5% 13.9% .300 2.97 3.27 67 72
Chance Adams 132.7 586 20.5% 10.1% .289 4.55 4.70 103 104
Tommy Kahnle 60.3 255 32.2% 11.0% .295 3.13 2.86 71 63
Jaime Garcia 141.3 618 18.9% 7.8% .289 4.71 4.66 107 103
Adam Warren 60.0 251 23.1% 8.0% .277 3.45 3.31 78 73
Jonathan Holder 61.7 256 26.6% 5.9% .301 3.36 3.30 76 73
Domingo German 113.3 493 22.3% 8.1% .296 4.61 4.61 104 102
Giovanny Gallegos 65.0 268 31.7% 6.7% .296 3.60 3.47 82 76
Ben Heller 58.3 252 30.2% 11.5% .294 3.86 3.88 87 85
Domingo Acevedo 117.7 515 20.4% 7.2% .297 4.97 5.04 113 111
Justus Sheffield 99.0 445 18.0% 10.1% .293 4.91 5.00 111 110
Chasen Shreve 56.7 243 30.5% 10.7% .293 3.81 3.76 86 83
David Sosebee 65.0 287 19.5% 9.8% .293 4.29 4.47 97 98
Josh Rogers 97.7 428 15.0% 5.1% .297 5.25 5.24 119 115
Luis Cessa 115.7 511 18.2% 7.8% .291 5.21 5.22 118 115
Brody Koerner 100.3 450 12.4% 7.1% .295 5.29 5.35 120 118
Cody Carroll 67.7 312 22.8% 14.7% .297 4.92 4.96 111 109
Cale Coshow 73.7 336 19.3% 11.6% .300 5.13 5.00 116 110
J.P. Feyereisen 57.0 259 22.4% 12.7% .295 4.89 5.02 111 111
Dan Camarena 112.7 504 14.3% 6.9% .293 5.51 5.63 125 124
Dillon Tate 75.7 351 14.0% 10.8% .296 5.71 5.68 129 125
Albert Abreu 64.0 305 19.3% 14.8% .295 6.33 6.45 143 142
Brady Lail 128.3 586 13.8% 8.2% .291 6.24 6.32 141 139

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Luis Severino 187.0 10.40 2.26 0.96 138 4.7 Dwight Gooden
Masahiro Tanaka 173.0 8.95 1.72 1.30 119 3.5 Kevin Tapani
Sonny Gray 168.3 8.39 2.89 1.07 114 3.4 Jack Morris
Jordan Montgomery 151.0 8.46 3.10 1.25 102 2.1 Andy Pettitte
Aroldis Chapman 52.3 14.10 3.96 0.69 177 1.8 Billy Wagner
David Robertson 59.7 12.97 3.17 0.91 159 1.7 Eric Plunk
CC Sabathia 131.7 7.31 2.94 1.30 99 1.6 Kenny Rogers
Chad Green 73.0 12.21 2.96 0.99 146 1.6 Bobby Jenks
Dellin Betances 60.7 13.65 5.34 0.74 145 1.5 Jim Kern
Chance Adams 132.7 8.14 4.00 1.29 95 1.4 Charlie Lea
Tommy Kahnle 60.3 12.23 4.18 0.75 136 1.3 Jim Kern
Jaime Garcia 141.3 7.45 3.06 1.46 90 1.1 Mike Hampton
Adam Warren 60.0 8.70 3.00 0.75 125 1.0 Danny Kolb
Jonathan Holder 61.7 9.92 2.19 1.02 129 1.0 Manuel Corpas
Domingo German 113.3 8.74 3.18 1.51 92 1.0 Kevin Lomon
Giovanny Gallegos 65.0 11.77 2.49 1.38 120 0.9 Luis DeLeon
Ben Heller 58.3 11.73 4.47 1.23 112 0.7 Unknown
Domingo Acevedo 117.7 8.03 2.83 1.76 87 0.7 Dicky Gonzalez
Justus Sheffield 99.0 7.27 4.09 1.36 88 0.6 Jerry Reuss
Chasen Shreve 56.7 11.75 4.13 1.27 112 0.6 Mitch Williams
David Sosebee 65.0 7.75 3.88 1.11 101 0.5 Joe Hudson
Josh Rogers 97.7 5.90 2.03 1.75 82 0.3 Joe Rosselli
Luis Cessa 115.7 7.24 3.11 1.71 82 0.3 Jeff Paluk
Brody Koerner 100.3 5.02 2.87 1.52 82 0.2 Michael Macdonald
Cody Carroll 67.7 9.44 6.12 1.20 88 0.1 Heathcliff Slocumb
Cale Coshow 73.7 7.94 4.76 1.34 84 0.1 Brett Merriman
J.P. Feyereisen 57.0 9.16 5.21 1.42 88 0.0 Marc Pisciotta
Dan Camarena 112.7 5.75 2.80 1.84 78 0.0 Eric Knott
Dillon Tate 75.7 5.83 4.52 1.55 76 -0.2 Rob Purvis
Albert Abreu 64.0 8.30 6.33 1.97 68 -0.6 Ken Luckham
Brady Lail 128.3 5.68 3.37 2.17 69 -1.0 Andy Cook

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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sadtrombone
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sadtrombone

Giancarlo Stanton comped to Harmon Killebrew? I wouldn’t have made the connection given the seven inch height differential, but the power…oh that power…

StevenHislop
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StevenHislop

Oh that iso…

DBA455
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Member
DBA455

With regard to the ISO complaints (below, it appears):

On the face of it – sure, sounds outrageous.

But some simple math:
(a) His 3yr trailing ISOs weighted 4/3/2 work out to .314 [No, I didn’t weight for PAs, but it shouldn’t matter much]

(b) At age 28, he’s still at a point in the aging curve that’s close enough to flat that it shouldn’t be a huge headwind

(c) Per FG Guts Handedness, New Yankee played 105% for RH HR vs Marlins park at 89% [And if you want to point out that the numbers are dated and might not reflect park changes in MIA – fine, but ESPN has the 2017 figures, ignoring handedness, of 128% and 84%. So we’re in the neighborhood)

(d) “All Park Factors have already been halved for use on full season stats”. So,

(e) (.314)*~1.05/~0.90 = .366

Yeah, I get that HR park factor and ISO aren’t a 1:1 correlation. But again, I am in the ballpark.

So that ISO doesn’t sound so “glitchy” to me.

This is going to be fun.

DBA455
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Member
DBA455

To highlight how bananas this is: since 2005 (ie, post Barry Bonds stuff), there have been exactly zero seasons with an ISO >.360.

And I STILL think that’s a reasonable place to set the 2018 Stanton ISO Over/Under.

bettingresource.com
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bettingresource.com

JD Martinez 2017 ISO was .387

DBA455
Member
Member
DBA455

*Qualified seasons

Interestingly, even if you lower the PA threshold all the way down to 150, the only names that get added are 2017 JDM – and 2017 Matt Olson.

With 2017 Rhys Hoskins only 1 pt off the mark at .359.

It was a remarkable HR year.

jrogers
Member
Member
jrogers

I was hoping Judge’s #1 Comp would be Giancarlo Stanton.