2018 ZiPS Projections – Oakland A’s

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland A’s. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
It’s inaccurate to say that ZiPS is “pessimistic” about the Oakland A’s. It’s inaccurate not because the ZiPS projections for Oakland are particularly good, but rather because ZiPS is incapable of of pessimism. It’s the unfeeling product of a proprietary algorithm applied to historical data, not a sentient being.

It would be entirely reasonable, on the other hand, to declare that a human person is pessimistic about the Oakland A’s after examining the ZiPS projections. Indeed, a brief inspection of the numbers here suggests that it’s one of the few logical conclusions to be drawn.

The depth-chart image below reveals five positions — catcher, second base, left field, center field, and right field — at which Oakland receives a rounded WAR projection of 1.0. Of course, the precise arrangement of certain players is subject to change. While Matt Joyce (431 PA, 0.6 zWAR) is more or less established in right field, for example, the roles of Mark Canha (489, 0.5), Dustin Fowler (460, 0.7), and Chad Pinder (463, 0.3) are all somewhat mutable. However they’re deployed, though, none of them appear particularly well suited to more than a bench role for now.

In a more promising development, two of the organization’s top young players from 2017, Matt Chapman (521, 2.8) and Matt Olson (565, 2.3), receive promising forecasts. The might very well represent a core around which the club can build.

Pitchers
Oakland pitchers combined for 10.3 WAR in 2017. Right-hander Sonny Gray accounted for more than 20% of that even though he recorded less than 7% of the club’s total innings — a feat he’s unlikely to match in 2018, on account of he’s now employed by the Yankees.

Unsurprisingly, the projections for Oakland’s remaining pitchers are rather modest. Left-hander Sean Manaea (154.2 IP, 2.3 zWAR) represents the only one, in fact, to receive a forecast of two wins or better. That’s not to say there’s no hint of promise. ZiPS calls for Jharel Cotton (144.0, 1.4), Kendall Graveman (129.0, 1.6), Jesse Hahn (100.2, 1.1), Daniel Mengden (113.0, 1.1), and Andrew Triggs (96.2, 1.3) all to produce wins at an average-or-better rate. Almost every one of them, however, is projected for something less than a full complement of innings.

As for the bullpen, one actually finds a pretty strong unit. Blake Treinen (72.1 IP, 84 ERA-, 1.3 zWAR) is expected to close, but Liam Hendriks (62.2, 84, 1.1) and Yusmeiro Petit (76.2, 93, 1.0) look well equipped to handle high-leverage innings, as well.

Bench/Prospects
Joey Wendle (563 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is the recipient of the top ZiPS projection among players not included in the depth-chart image below. He was also designated for assignment literally 22 hours ago. The forecasts suggest he could be of some use at second base; clearly, the A’s don’t totally agree. Outfielder Ramon Laureano (521, 0.9), acquired in a trade with Houston in November, earns the top projection of Oakland’s rookie-eligible field players.

Right-hander Paul Blackburn (138.1 IP, 1.3 zWAR) failed to recorded a strikeout rate greater than 10% in roughly 60 innings with Oakland this past season. He throws strikes, though, and limits damage on contact. He earns the top projection among the pitchers excluded from the depth chart. Among relievers, Daniel Coulombe (57.1, 88, 0.7) receives that distinction.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Athletics, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Matt Chapman R 25 3B 521 66 105 24 3 27 73 5 4
Khris Davis R 30 LF 586 81 133 27 2 36 104 4 1
Matt Olson L 24 1B 565 76 117 27 1 33 88 2 0
Marcus Semien R 27 SS 532 67 120 25 3 19 61 11 2
Jed Lowrie B 34 2B 521 59 120 28 2 9 49 0 0
Joey Wendle L 28 2B 563 60 131 31 5 12 60 9 3
Bruce Maxwell L 27 C 355 34 75 16 0 7 35 0 1
Boog Powell L 25 CF 432 53 101 14 3 7 36 11 9
Ramon Laureano R 23 RF 521 60 108 24 5 11 51 22 8
Sean Murphy R 23 C 389 39 80 14 0 10 37 0 0
Dustin Fowler L 23 CF 460 54 113 24 6 15 65 14 8
Dustin Garneau R 30 C 307 32 62 15 1 8 31 1 2
Matthew Joyce L 33 RF 431 53 86 20 1 16 53 3 2
Franklin Barreto R 22 SS 588 64 130 22 5 16 58 17 10
Mark Canha R 29 RF 489 57 106 27 3 16 59 5 1
Jake Smolinski R 29 CF 357 37 79 19 2 9 38 3 3
Jorge Mateo R 23 SS 577 60 121 23 12 13 60 35 13
Nick Martini L 28 LF 489 52 104 19 3 6 41 6 2
Yairo Munoz R 23 SS 488 50 114 21 3 12 52 14 5
Josh Phegley R 30 C 242 28 51 15 1 6 28 0 1
Chris Carter R 31 1B 460 53 86 18 1 24 68 1 1
Beau Taylor L 28 C 308 30 58 12 1 5 25 1 1
Chad Pinder R 26 SS 463 51 100 22 2 16 53 5 4
Jermaine Curtis R 30 3B 314 32 62 11 0 4 24 3 1
Sheldon Neuse R 23 3B 489 51 107 18 3 11 45 10 6
Max Schrock L 23 2B 529 55 124 21 2 8 45 8 3
Richie Martin R 23 SS 452 44 91 15 4 4 33 11 6
Matt McBride R 33 C 297 32 64 18 1 9 34 1 1
B.J. Boyd L 24 CF 577 56 132 20 5 5 43 11 5
Renato Nunez R 24 LF 538 67 118 25 1 28 78 2 1
Ryan Lavarnway R 30 C 312 30 62 12 0 6 26 0 1
Anthony Garcia R 26 LF 428 48 91 19 2 11 45 5 3
Jaff Decker L 28 CF 426 43 84 16 2 9 34 12 5
Melvin Mercedes B 26 2B 343 31 64 9 2 1 17 7 4
Frank Schwindel R 26 1B 540 56 131 29 0 17 65 0 1
Sandber Pimentel L 23 1B 401 43 78 12 0 12 40 0 0
Kenny Wilson R 28 CF 436 40 83 15 3 4 29 17 9
Brett Vertigan L 27 LF 429 39 82 15 2 2 25 10 3
J.P. Sportman R 26 RF 533 48 107 19 4 8 45 10 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Matt Chapman 521 8.8% 31.7% .238 .280 .225 .298 .463 .319 100
Khris Davis 586 9.2% 27.6% .267 .296 .256 .329 .523 .356 125
Matt Olson 565 11.3% 28.1% .260 .276 .238 .328 .498 .347 119
Marcus Semien 532 9.0% 22.2% .184 .294 .251 .320 .435 .323 102
Jed Lowrie 521 9.4% 15.5% .127 .293 .258 .330 .385 .311 94
Joey Wendle 563 3.7% 20.1% .145 .291 .247 .283 .392 .287 77
Bruce Maxwell 355 9.0% 22.5% .116 .289 .234 .302 .350 .286 77
Boog Powell 432 9.0% 17.4% .107 .307 .263 .331 .370 .307 91
Ramon Laureano 521 7.7% 26.1% .143 .298 .230 .299 .372 .292 81
Sean Murphy 389 5.9% 19.3% .123 .253 .223 .271 .345 .268 64
Dustin Fowler 460 3.9% 20.0% .185 .295 .259 .290 .444 .309 92
Dustin Garneau 307 7.2% 22.5% .147 .266 .223 .288 .371 .284 75
Matthew Joyce 431 13.0% 22.5% .191 .270 .234 .336 .425 .328 106
Franklin Barreto 588 4.9% 27.6% .146 .307 .238 .285 .384 .286 77
Mark Canha 489 7.2% 23.9% .184 .289 .241 .307 .425 .313 95
Jake Smolinski 357 6.4% 17.9% .155 .277 .245 .306 .399 .304 89
Jorge Mateo 577 5.2% 29.8% .160 .303 .225 .268 .385 .278 71
Nick Martini 489 9.6% 20.7% .099 .297 .240 .318 .339 .289 79
Yairo Munoz 488 3.7% 19.7% .136 .284 .246 .275 .381 .280 72
Josh Phegley 242 5.4% 17.8% .157 .256 .229 .281 .386 .286 77
Chris Carter 460 11.1% 33.5% .231 .274 .216 .309 .446 .321 101
Beau Taylor 308 9.4% 28.6% .105 .286 .210 .286 .315 .265 63
Chad Pinder 463 5.0% 28.1% .172 .294 .233 .281 .406 .293 82
Jermaine Curtis 314 9.9% 18.5% .085 .275 .229 .326 .314 .288 78
Sheldon Neuse 489 6.1% 28.2% .126 .313 .236 .286 .361 .279 72
Max Schrock 529 4.9% 10.8% .099 .268 .250 .293 .349 .280 73
Richie Martin 452 6.0% 21.2% .085 .277 .221 .284 .306 .262 60
Matt McBride 297 5.4% 18.5% .171 .257 .233 .279 .404 .291 80
B.J. Boyd 577 5.0% 17.7% .083 .292 .245 .287 .328 .268 64
Renato Nunez 538 6.1% 27.1% .224 .276 .238 .290 .463 .316 97
Ryan Lavarnway 312 8.0% 22.8% .107 .273 .221 .293 .327 .275 69
Anthony Garcia 428 8.2% 23.1% .146 .290 .238 .309 .384 .299 86
Jaff Decker 426 9.4% 24.6% .125 .282 .223 .299 .347 .282 74
Melvin Mercedes 343 8.5% 19.8% .052 .265 .210 .283 .262 .248 51
Frank Schwindel 540 2.4% 19.3% .154 .283 .252 .272 .406 .286 77
Sandber Pimentel 401 8.5% 32.4% .132 .297 .214 .287 .346 .277 71
Kenny Wilson 436 6.9% 27.1% .083 .286 .210 .274 .293 .252 53
Brett Vertigan 429 7.7% 25.4% .064 .286 .211 .275 .275 .246 49
J.P. Sportman 533 4.5% 25.9% .101 .276 .213 .252 .314 .246 49

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Matt Chapman 521 4.7 106 11 2.8 Gary Gaetti
Khris Davis 586 6.3 131 -5 2.5 Dean Palmer
Matt Olson 565 5.8 124 2 2.3 Mo Vaughn
Marcus Semien 532 5.2 107 -4 2.1 Dan Uggla
Jed Lowrie 521 4.6 98 -2 1.2 Vance Law
Joey Wendle 563 4.0 84 6 1.1 Jose Nieves
Bruce Maxwell 355 3.7 80 3 1.0 Carlos Maldonado
Boog Powell 432 4.3 94 1 0.9 Curt Flood
Ramon Laureano 521 4.0 85 9 0.9 Mike Daniel
Sean Murphy 389 3.3 69 5 0.7 Kyle Phillips
Dustin Fowler 460 4.6 99 -5 0.7 Ivan Calderon
Dustin Garneau 307 3.6 81 1 0.6 Chad Moeller
Matthew Joyce 431 5.0 109 -6 0.6 Mark Leonard
Franklin Barreto 588 3.8 83 -3 0.6 Carlos Garcia
Mark Canha 489 4.7 100 -3 0.5 Keith Williams
Jake Smolinski 357 4.3 94 -2 0.5 Brad Correll
Jorge Mateo 577 3.8 78 -1 0.5 Mariano Duncan
Nick Martini 489 3.9 83 6 0.4 Jorge Cortes
Yairo Munoz 488 3.8 79 -2 0.4 Oscar Salazar
Josh Phegley 242 3.7 82 -1 0.4 Scott Servais
Chris Carter 460 4.7 106 -3 0.3 Ty Van Burkleo
Beau Taylor 308 3.0 67 2 0.3 Ray Stephens
Chad Pinder 463 3.9 87 -6 0.3 Les Pearsey
Jermaine Curtis 314 3.6 79 -1 0.2 Rico Rossy
Sheldon Neuse 489 3.6 78 1 0.2 George Hinshaw
Max Schrock 529 3.7 77 0 0.1 Edwin Aponte
Richie Martin 452 3.0 64 4 0.1 Jason Bowers
Matt McBride 297 3.9 86 -8 -0.1 Randy Knorr
B.J. Boyd 577 3.4 70 4 -0.1 Clay Timpner
Renato Nunez 538 4.8 104 -11 -0.1 Mike Hessman
Ryan Lavarnway 312 3.2 72 -5 -0.1 Dave Toth
Anthony Garcia 428 4.2 91 -4 -0.3 Mike Edwards
Jaff Decker 426 3.7 79 -6 -0.4 Scott Bikowski
Melvin Mercedes 343 2.5 53 2 -0.6 Luis Lorenzana
Frank Schwindel 540 3.9 84 0 -0.7 Reggie Montgomery
Sandber Pimentel 401 3.4 75 1 -0.8 Danny Lewis
Kenny Wilson 436 2.7 58 -2 -1.1 Mike Murphy
Brett Vertigan 429 2.7 53 4 -1.2 Buck McNabb
J.P. Sportman 533 2.7 56 2 -1.9 Denis Phipps

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Sean Manaea L 26 29 28 154.7 135 50 18 153 78 73
Kendall Graveman R 27 23 23 129.0 82 38 15 140 68 64
Jharel Cotton R 26 26 26 144.0 134 52 22 144 79 74
Blake Treinen R 30 69 0 72.3 67 28 5 68 31 29
Andrew Triggs R 29 16 16 96.7 73 30 11 102 50 47
Paul Blackburn R 24 27 26 138.3 79 43 17 154 77 72
Daniel Mengden R 25 23 22 113.0 94 44 15 117 63 59
Liam Hendriks R 29 69 0 62.7 77 23 6 53 27 25
Jesse Hahn R 28 21 20 100.7 71 44 9 104 55 51
Daniel Gossett R 25 29 29 149.0 116 55 22 164 88 82
Yusmeiro Petit R 33 48 2 76.7 81 17 12 73 36 34
A.J. Puk L 23 25 25 126.3 107 54 19 130 74 69
Chris Bassitt R 29 22 12 73.0 57 31 7 74 39 36
Josh Smith R 30 37 11 102.3 84 38 13 107 56 52
Cesar Valdez R 33 21 16 98.7 61 20 13 113 56 52
Daniel Coulombe L 28 65 0 57.3 55 26 5 52 26 24
Simon Castro R 30 54 0 67.3 75 28 9 60 32 30
Emilio Pagan R 27 53 0 72.7 76 25 10 68 36 34
Ryan Dull R 28 56 0 55.3 59 17 8 50 27 25
Jake Sanchez R 28 45 0 53.3 50 18 6 52 26 24
Frankie Montas R 25 50 0 47.3 57 22 6 41 21 20
Lou Trivino R 26 51 0 65.0 49 32 5 64 33 31
Carlos Navas R 25 48 1 65.7 56 28 7 66 34 32
Santiago Casilla R 37 55 0 51.7 51 18 7 49 26 24
Corey Walter R 25 51 10 90.7 51 29 11 102 52 49
Felix Doubront L 30 24 10 67.7 58 31 9 71 40 37
Grant Holmes R 22 28 24 136.7 115 68 20 145 85 79
Michael Brady R 31 29 9 77.0 60 15 14 86 45 42
Chris Hatcher R 33 50 0 56.7 57 21 8 56 29 27
Logan Bawcom R 29 43 3 71.0 56 33 8 74 40 37
Zach Neal R 29 27 18 118.3 54 16 21 144 74 69
Heath Fillmyer R 24 28 27 133.3 88 55 21 149 85 79
John Axford R 35 44 0 41.3 41 24 4 39 21 20
Raul Alcantara R 25 29 18 94.0 57 26 16 107 59 55
Sam Moll L 26 57 0 61.0 47 24 7 66 33 31
Chris Smith R 37 24 18 106.0 79 41 18 113 66 62
Patrick Schuster L 27 48 0 53.0 45 25 6 53 29 27
Tucker Healy R 28 40 0 46.7 42 27 5 45 27 25
Jarret Martin L 28 41 1 41.0 43 37 2 35 24 22
Aaron Kurcz R 27 43 0 53.3 41 24 7 56 32 30
Bobby Wahl R 26 30 1 36.3 42 24 7 35 24 22
Casey Meisner R 23 28 23 118.7 76 61 17 133 79 74
Joel Seddon R 25 32 13 102.7 59 41 16 119 68 64
Sam Bragg R 25 44 0 65.0 49 23 11 71 41 38
Dalton Sawyer L 24 25 19 108.7 86 56 20 119 75 70
Dustin Hurlbutt R 25 23 16 99.0 67 46 19 112 70 65
Tyler Sturdevant R 32 42 0 53.7 39 21 10 61 36 34
Kyle Finnegan R 26 47 0 58.0 48 33 10 61 40 37
Brandon Mann L 34 35 4 63.3 56 37 12 68 45 42
Chris Jensen R 27 28 16 111.7 63 45 23 134 82 77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Sean Manaea 154.7 667 20.2% 7.5% .295 4.25 4.01 99 93
Kendall Graveman 129.0 565 14.5% 6.7% .294 4.47 4.37 104 102
Jharel Cotton 144.0 628 21.3% 8.3% .295 4.62 4.47 108 104
Blake Treinen 72.3 313 21.4% 8.9% .299 3.61 3.28 84 76
Andrew Triggs 96.7 422 17.3% 7.1% .299 4.38 4.18 102 97
Paul Blackburn 138.3 612 12.9% 7.0% .293 4.68 4.68 109 108
Daniel Mengden 113.0 500 18.8% 8.8% .298 4.70 4.52 109 105
Liam Hendriks 62.7 264 29.2% 8.7% .297 3.59 3.05 84 71
Jesse Hahn 100.7 450 15.8% 9.8% .296 4.56 4.34 106 101
Daniel Gossett 149.0 666 17.4% 8.3% .305 4.95 4.75 115 110
Yusmeiro Petit 76.7 320 25.3% 5.3% .292 3.99 3.67 93 85
A.J. Puk 126.3 563 19.0% 9.6% .296 4.92 4.84 114 112
Chris Bassitt 73.0 324 17.6% 9.6% .299 4.44 4.32 103 100
Josh Smith 102.3 452 18.6% 8.4% .301 4.57 4.37 107 101
Cesar Valdez 98.7 429 14.2% 4.7% .303 4.74 4.36 110 101
Daniel Coulombe 57.3 250 22.0% 10.4% .290 3.77 3.73 88 87
Simon Castro 67.3 290 25.9% 9.7% .293 4.01 4.05 93 94
Emilio Pagan 72.7 311 24.4% 8.0% .294 4.21 4.01 98 93
Ryan Dull 55.3 233 25.3% 7.3% .286 4.07 3.77 95 88
Jake Sanchez 53.3 230 21.7% 7.8% .301 4.05 3.87 94 90
Frankie Montas 47.3 205 27.8% 10.7% .299 3.80 3.98 89 92
Lou Trivino 65.0 291 16.8% 11.0% .294 4.29 4.22 100 98
Carlos Navas 65.7 291 19.2% 9.6% .301 4.39 4.21 102 98
Santiago Casilla 51.7 222 23.0% 8.1% .298 4.18 4.22 97 98
Corey Walter 90.7 403 12.7% 7.2% .297 4.86 4.73 113 110
Felix Doubront 67.7 305 19.0% 10.2% .302 4.92 4.59 115 107
Grant Holmes 136.7 623 18.5% 10.9% .303 5.20 5.02 121 117
Michael Brady 77.0 332 18.1% 4.5% .303 4.91 4.66 114 108
Chris Hatcher 56.7 247 23.1% 8.5% .300 4.29 4.04 100 94
Logan Bawcom 71.0 320 17.5% 10.3% .301 4.69 4.61 109 107
Zach Neal 118.3 515 10.5% 3.1% .294 5.25 5.08 122 118
Heath Fillmyer 133.3 604 14.6% 9.1% .296 5.33 5.30 124 123
John Axford 41.3 187 21.9% 12.8% .302 4.35 4.25 101 99
Raul Alcantara 94.0 415 13.7% 6.3% .294 5.27 5.18 123 120
Sam Moll 61.0 273 17.2% 8.8% .307 4.57 4.44 107 103
Chris Smith 106.0 472 16.7% 8.7% .289 5.26 5.15 123 119
Patrick Schuster 53.0 237 19.0% 10.5% .297 4.58 4.52 107 105
Tucker Healy 46.7 212 19.8% 12.7% .294 4.82 4.49 112 104
Jarret Martin 41.0 195 22.1% 19.0% .297 4.83 4.47 112 104
Aaron Kurcz 53.3 240 17.1% 10.0% .297 5.06 4.85 118 112
Bobby Wahl 36.3 168 25.0% 14.3% .301 5.45 5.41 127 126
Casey Meisner 118.7 550 13.8% 11.1% .298 5.61 5.43 131 126
Joel Seddon 102.7 468 12.6% 8.8% .298 5.61 5.35 131 124
Sam Bragg 65.0 289 17.0% 8.0% .297 5.26 5.05 123 117
Dalton Sawyer 108.7 501 17.2% 11.2% .297 5.80 5.68 135 132
Dustin Hurlbutt 99.0 455 14.7% 10.1% .293 5.91 5.84 138 136
Tyler Sturdevant 53.7 243 16.0% 8.6% .300 5.70 5.36 133 124
Kyle Finnegan 58.0 268 17.9% 12.3% .293 5.74 5.55 134 129
Brandon Mann 63.3 295 19.0% 12.5% .299 5.97 5.70 139 132
Chris Jensen 111.7 514 12.3% 8.8% .294 6.21 6.08 145 141

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Sean Manaea 154.7 7.86 2.91 1.05 100 2.3 Mark Thurmond
Kendall Graveman 129.0 5.72 2.65 1.05 95 1.6 Dave Frost
Jharel Cotton 144.0 8.38 3.25 1.38 90 1.4 Andy McGaffigan
Blake Treinen 72.3 8.34 3.48 0.62 116 1.3 Saul Rivera
Andrew Triggs 96.7 6.80 2.79 1.02 97 1.3 Dave Eiland
Paul Blackburn 138.3 5.14 2.80 1.11 89 1.3 Wally Bunker
Daniel Mengden 113.0 7.49 3.50 1.19 90 1.1 Randy Hennis
Liam Hendriks 62.7 11.06 3.30 0.86 118 1.1 Frank LaCorte
Jesse Hahn 100.7 6.35 3.93 0.80 92 1.1 Don Schwall
Daniel Gossett 149.0 7.01 3.32 1.33 86 1.1 Brian Moehler
Yusmeiro Petit 76.7 9.51 2.00 1.41 105 1.0 Bob Wells
A.J. Puk 126.3 7.62 3.85 1.35 86 0.9 Jon Lester
Chris Bassitt 73.0 7.03 3.82 0.86 96 0.9 Jim McDonald
Josh Smith 102.3 7.39 3.34 1.14 91 0.9 Julian Tavarez
Cesar Valdez 98.7 5.56 1.82 1.19 88 0.8 Frank Hiller
Daniel Coulombe 57.3 8.63 4.08 0.78 111 0.7 Randy Choate
Simon Castro 67.3 10.02 3.74 1.20 104 0.7 Ryan Dempster
Emilio Pagan 72.7 9.41 3.10 1.24 101 0.7 Paul Byrd
Ryan Dull 55.3 9.60 2.77 1.30 104 0.6 Cris Carpenter
Jake Sanchez 53.3 8.44 3.04 1.01 105 0.6 Mark Lee
Frankie Montas 47.3 10.84 4.18 1.14 112 0.6 Ryan Bukvich
Lou Trivino 65.0 6.78 4.43 0.69 99 0.5 Hal Reniff
Carlos Navas 65.7 7.68 3.84 0.96 97 0.5 Jim Winn
Santiago Casilla 51.7 8.88 3.14 1.22 100 0.5 Matt Herges
Corey Walter 90.7 5.06 2.88 1.09 87 0.5 Todd Williams
Felix Doubront 67.7 7.71 4.12 1.20 86 0.4 Brian O’Connor
Grant Holmes 136.7 7.57 4.48 1.32 80 0.4 Brett Laxton
Michael Brady 77.0 7.01 1.75 1.64 86 0.4 Matt Ginter
Chris Hatcher 56.7 9.05 3.34 1.27 98 0.4 Jim Mecir
Logan Bawcom 71.0 7.10 4.18 1.01 90 0.4 Tony Fiore
Zach Neal 118.3 4.11 1.22 1.60 81 0.4 Matt Ginter
Heath Fillmyer 133.3 5.94 3.71 1.42 80 0.3 Frank Castillo
John Axford 41.3 8.93 5.23 0.87 97 0.3 Ryne Duren
Raul Alcantara 94.0 5.46 2.49 1.53 81 0.3 Chuck Porter
Sam Moll 61.0 6.93 3.54 1.03 91 0.2 Tanyon Sturtze
Chris Smith 106.0 6.71 3.48 1.53 79 0.2 Bob Forsch
Patrick Schuster 53.0 7.64 4.25 1.02 91 0.2 Philip Barzilla
Tucker Healy 46.7 8.10 5.21 0.96 88 0.1 Marc Pisciotta
Jarret Martin 41.0 9.44 8.12 0.44 87 0.1 Mike Kinnunen
Aaron Kurcz 53.3 6.92 4.05 1.18 84 -0.1 Jimmy Myers
Bobby Wahl 36.3 10.40 5.94 1.73 78 -0.2 Henry Owens
Casey Meisner 118.7 5.76 4.63 1.29 75 -0.2 Ken Pumphrey
Joel Seddon 102.7 5.17 3.59 1.40 76 -0.2 Bill Champion
Sam Bragg 65.0 6.78 3.18 1.52 81 -0.2 Randy McCament
Dalton Sawyer 108.7 7.12 4.64 1.66 73 -0.3 Ryan Jacobs
Dustin Hurlbutt 99.0 6.09 4.18 1.73 72 -0.4 Ken Klump
Tyler Sturdevant 53.7 6.54 3.52 1.68 74 -0.5 Mike Sullivan
Kyle Finnegan 58.0 7.45 5.12 1.55 74 -0.5 Jack Lazorko
Brandon Mann 63.3 7.96 5.26 1.71 71 -0.6 Kevin Hickey
Chris Jensen 111.7 5.08 3.63 1.85 68 -0.9 Pete Blohm

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Oakland A’s by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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jmsdean477
Member
jmsdean477

Love the Curt Flood comp, Boog Powell the second will change FA as we know it with a precedent setting court case!

baycommuter
Member
Member
baycommuter

Well, Curt Flood was an Oakland kid and Powell was the name of a famous Supreme Court justice.

jmsdean477
Member
jmsdean477

Also the second boog powell in MLB.