2018 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Last year at this time, corner type Rhys Hoskins (641 PA, 3.6 zWAR) was assessed a 45 FV (the future-value grade of a platoon or utility type) in Eric Longenhagen’s audit of the organization and was omitted entirely from the top-10 lists published by Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. Following impressive performances at both Triple-A and in the majors, however, he now receives the top WAR projection among position players in the organization.

Hoskins is the only hitter forecast to record an above-average batting line (125 wRC+) for Philadelphia in 2018. That said, ZiPS calls for Maikel Franco (615 PA, 1.9 zWAR), Freddy Galvis (621, 2.0), Cesar Hernandez (579, 1.7), and Odubel Herrera (612, 2.9) all to produce a sufficient combination of offensive and defensive value to record wins at a roughly average rate.

The club’s greatest weakness appears to be at catcher, where Andrew Knapp (380, 0.7) and Cameron Rupp (340, 0.8) both fail to clear the one-win threshold. Prospect Jorge Alfaro (448, 0.1) was productive in 100-plus plate appearances and has no options remaining, both of which make him a candidate for the 25-man roster. His total lack of plate discipline, however — he’s projected for walk and strikeout rates of 3.8% and 34.2%, respectively — puts a lot of pressure on the other aspects of his game.

Pitchers
Philadelphia’s pitching staff ranked 15th as a group this past season with 12.7 WAR, over a third of that produced by Aaron Nola (178.2 IP, 4.3 zWAR) himself despite an injury that allowed him to record just six starts over the first two months of the season. Szymborski’s computer projects Nola to basically repeat his 2017 campaign. The triumvirate of Jerad Eickhoff (149.0, 1.8), Nick Pivetta (155.0, 1.7), and Vince Velasquez (134.1, 1.9), meanwhile, all profile as roughly league-average starters.

As for the bullpen, it’s become considerably deeper in just the past week with the addition of Tommy Hunter (54.0 IP, 85 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) and Pat Neshek (50.1, 78, 1.0). Hector Neris (72.0, 92, 0.9) is expected to close games, but the projections indicate he’s, like, the fifth-best option for high-leverage innings. Hunter, Neshek, Luis Garcia (65.1, 86, 1.0), and Edubray Ramos (72.1, 83, 1.1) are all forecast to produce better adjusted ERA marks.

Bench/Prospects
While Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez appear at shortstop and second base, respectively, in the depth-chart image below, it’s possible that neither will occupy any place on the roster by Opening Day, both having been mentioned in trade talks this offseason. The logic behind a move involving either player would be clear: J.P. Crawford (628 PA, 2.6 zWAR) and Scott Kingery (582, 2.0) both earn WAR projections superior to the players they’d be replacing. Dylan Cozens (543, 0.5) and Andrew Pullin (533, 0.8) appear to represent the top alternatives in the outfield should Aaron Altherr (468, 1.4) or Nick Williams (613, 1.0) fail to meet their already modest expectations.

Right-hander Tom Eshelman (133.1 IP, 1.3 zWAR) earns the top projection among pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below. He recorded a walk rate of just 3.1% in 150.0 innings across Double- and Triple-A this past season and is forecast to record the lowest major-league walk rate (4.5%) among Phillies pitchers after newcomer Pat Neshek (3.9%).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phillies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Rhys Hoskins R 25 1B 641 96 146 28 4 34 121 5 3
Odubel Herrera L 26 CF 612 75 153 32 4 15 55 15 7
J.P. Crawford L 23 SS 628 74 131 22 6 12 66 7 6
Freddy Galvis B 28 SS 621 69 150 27 6 15 68 13 4
Scott Kingery R 24 2B 582 69 137 26 6 16 64 20 5
Maikel Franco R 25 3B 615 72 151 33 2 25 96 1 0
Cesar Hernandez B 28 2B 579 72 138 20 7 7 37 16 8
Aaron Altherr R 27 LF 468 59 102 24 4 18 69 8 4
Nick Williams L 24 RF 613 75 144 28 6 24 91 6 6
Damek Tomscha R 26 3B 444 47 97 21 1 9 44 2 1
Cameron Rupp R 29 C 340 32 68 16 0 13 41 1 0
Andrew Pullin L 24 LF 533 60 127 28 4 16 68 4 2
Andrew Knapp B 26 C 380 43 77 16 2 10 37 2 1
Dylan Cozens L 24 RF 543 68 108 21 4 24 86 10 3
Carlos Tocci R 22 CF 565 56 134 22 6 4 44 5 6
Herlis Rodriguez L 24 CF 433 43 91 14 3 12 44 9 7
Tommy Joseph R 26 1B 491 56 117 25 1 24 76 1 1
Jesmuel Valentin B 24 2B 377 41 82 15 3 7 36 1 3
Logan Moore L 27 C 239 22 44 8 1 6 23 0 1
Hyun Soo Kim L 30 LF 336 35 81 13 1 8 26 1 2
Mitch Walding L 25 3B 447 45 76 15 3 15 51 2 3
Drew Stankiewicz L 25 2B 373 35 76 13 2 5 30 4 2
Jorge Alfaro R 25 C 448 45 92 17 2 13 49 2 2
Eliezer Alvarez L 23 2B 394 44 86 19 3 8 37 16 10
Christian Marrero L 31 LF 331 40 67 11 1 12 38 1 1
Daniel Nava B 35 LF 244 23 52 9 0 4 20 2 1
Roman Quinn B 25 CF 315 34 65 10 4 5 26 18 8
Jiandido Tromp R 24 RF 509 55 108 24 4 19 64 8 6
Andres Blanco B 34 2B 186 18 40 10 1 4 18 1 2
Ty Kelly B 29 2B 349 39 72 13 2 6 35 2 3
Pedro Florimon B 31 2B 363 35 67 12 3 7 31 6 3
Engelb Vielma B 24 SS 473 40 97 12 3 0 23 9 10
Harold Martinez R 28 1B 253 23 50 9 1 5 23 1 0
Cord Sandberg L 23 RF 423 38 82 19 2 8 38 5 4
Cornelius Randolph L 21 LF 494 50 97 18 4 13 51 6 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Rhys Hoskins 641 11.5% 23.2% .249 .298 .264 .356 .513 .366 125
Odubel Herrera 612 6.9% 22.4% .152 .337 .273 .330 .425 .322 96
J.P. Crawford 628 12.1% 19.4% .128 .287 .239 .332 .367 .308 87
Freddy Galvis 621 5.8% 17.9% .147 .299 .262 .307 .408 .305 84
Scott Kingery 582 5.5% 21.8% .160 .305 .256 .304 .416 .307 86
Maikel Franco 615 6.5% 15.9% .198 .281 .266 .317 .464 .329 100
Cesar Hernandez 579 10.4% 18.8% .107 .329 .270 .348 .377 .318 93
Aaron Altherr 468 7.7% 27.1% .204 .302 .242 .313 .447 .322 96
Nick Williams 613 4.9% 29.5% .196 .323 .252 .294 .448 .313 90
Damek Tomscha 444 6.5% 18.9% .125 .284 .242 .309 .367 .295 78
Cameron Rupp 340 8.2% 30.6% .179 .286 .221 .291 .399 .295 78
Andrew Pullin 533 5.1% 20.8% .169 .298 .255 .300 .424 .308 87
Andrew Knapp 380 9.5% 30.5% .147 .310 .226 .303 .374 .293 76
Dylan Cozens 543 8.3% 39.2% .205 .326 .220 .287 .425 .303 83
Carlos Tocci 565 5.0% 18.6% .088 .312 .257 .301 .345 .282 70
Herlis Rodriguez 433 5.1% 24.0% .141 .278 .229 .276 .370 .277 67
Tommy Joseph 491 5.7% 22.4% .218 .286 .257 .303 .475 .327 99
Jesmuel Valentin 377 7.2% 19.9% .124 .288 .241 .299 .365 .288 73
Logan Moore 239 7.5% 33.9% .130 .290 .204 .266 .333 .259 55
Hyun Soo Kim 336 10.1% 17.3% .131 .313 .273 .351 .404 .329 100
Mitch Walding 447 8.9% 40.9% .166 .299 .191 .269 .357 .272 63
Drew Stankiewicz 373 8.3% 24.1% .095 .291 .226 .291 .320 .269 61
Jorge Alfaro 448 3.8% 34.2% .143 .309 .219 .263 .362 .268 61
Eliezer Alvarez 394 7.6% 26.9% .138 .320 .242 .310 .380 .299 81
Christian Marrero 331 10.6% 21.8% .170 .267 .233 .324 .403 .314 91
Daniel Nava 244 9.4% 19.3% .098 .291 .243 .328 .341 .298 80
Roman Quinn 315 7.6% 27.9% .117 .314 .230 .296 .346 .282 69
Jiandido Tromp 509 5.1% 30.1% .187 .291 .227 .270 .415 .290 75
Andres Blanco 186 7.0% 20.4% .143 .283 .238 .303 .381 .297 79
Ty Kelly 349 10.6% 17.8% .115 .276 .237 .321 .352 .297 79
Pedro Florimon 363 7.7% 32.0% .119 .288 .204 .269 .322 .258 54
Engelb Vielma 473 5.3% 21.1% .041 .286 .223 .266 .264 .236 40
Harold Martinez 253 4.3% 30.4% .110 .287 .211 .250 .321 .247 47
Cord Sandberg 423 4.7% 31.9% .120 .294 .210 .255 .330 .252 50
Cornelius Randolph 494 8.3% 31.0% .147 .300 .219 .291 .367 .285 71

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Rhys Hoskins 641 6.7 132 3 3.6 Randy Milligan
Odubel Herrera 612 5.2 103 7 2.9 David DeJesus
J.P. Crawford 628 4.2 90 7 2.6 Ernest Riles
Freddy Galvis 621 4.7 92 1 2.0 Angel Berroa
Scott Kingery 582 4.8 93 4 2.0 Josh Barfield
Maikel Franco 615 5.4 108 -7 1.9 Terry Jorgensen
Cesar Hernandez 579 4.9 97 -2 1.7 Jose Offerman
Aaron Altherr 468 5.0 103 4 1.4 Alonzo Powell
Nick Williams 613 4.6 98 2 1.0 Myron White
Damek Tomscha 444 4.0 83 2 0.8 Patrick Sellers
Cameron Rupp 340 4.1 85 -2 0.8 Alvin Colina
Andrew Pullin 533 4.6 94 2 0.8 John Bowker
Andrew Knapp 380 3.9 82 -3 0.7 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Dylan Cozens 543 4.3 90 1 0.5 Alan Cockrell
Carlos Tocci 565 3.6 75 5 0.5 Victor Mata
Herlis Rodriguez 433 3.5 73 5 0.4 Dan Wagner
Tommy Joseph 491 5.2 107 -6 0.4 Steve Hacker
Jesmuel Valentin 377 3.7 79 2 0.4 Sam Bozanich
Logan Moore 239 2.9 61 3 0.3 Henry Mercedes
Hyun Soo Kim 336 5.2 105 -7 0.2 Steve Kemp
Mitch Walding 447 3.1 68 5 0.2 Tom Quinlan
Drew Stankiewicz 373 3.3 66 4 0.2 Scott Leius
Jorge Alfaro 448 3.2 67 -2 0.1 Joel Skinner
Eliezer Alvarez 394 4.1 86 -5 0.1 Sibby Sisti
Christian Marrero 331 4.6 96 -5 0.0 Pat Brady
Daniel Nava 244 4.0 82 -1 0.0 Orlando Palmeiro
Roman Quinn 315 3.7 74 -2 -0.1 Herm Winningham
Jiandido Tromp 509 3.8 82 2 -0.1 Nate Schierholtz
Andres Blanco 186 3.9 84 -4 -0.1 Nelson Liriano
Ty Kelly 349 3.9 83 -7 -0.2 Brian Grebeck
Pedro Florimon 363 2.9 60 2 -0.4 Jake Wald
Engelb Vielma 473 2.2 45 9 -0.6 Esteban Beltre
Harold Martinez 253 2.8 54 3 -0.8 Eric Reece
Cord Sandberg 423 2.8 57 5 -1.0 Greg Sparks
Cornelius Randolph 494 3.6 77 -6 -1.0 Mel Hall

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Aaron Nola R 25 30 30 178.7 181 41 18 168 72 67
Vince Velasquez R 26 26 25 134.3 155 48 22 129 70 65
Jerad Eickhoff R 27 27 27 149.0 135 47 24 153 80 75
Nick Pivetta R 25 29 29 155.0 158 55 24 154 83 78
Tom Eshelman R 24 24 24 133.3 102 26 23 147 75 70
Edubray Ramos R 25 68 0 72.3 82 25 8 65 31 29
Pat Neshek R 37 61 0 50.3 54 8 7 44 20 19
Zach Eflin R 24 22 22 121.3 83 29 19 134 68 64
Luis Garcia R 31 65 0 65.3 60 33 4 62 29 27
Ben Lively R 26 29 29 161.0 123 50 27 171 95 89
Tommy Hunter R 31 57 0 54.0 47 13 6 51 24 22
Hector Neris R 29 69 0 72.0 83 28 11 65 34 32
Mark Leiter R 27 30 15 108.7 106 35 21 111 63 59
Brandon Leibrandt L 25 24 24 118.7 92 48 19 129 72 67
Austin Davis L 25 39 0 60.7 57 26 7 59 31 29
Jake Thompson R 24 32 30 161.0 118 68 28 176 101 94
Clay Buchholz R 33 25 19 117.0 94 40 19 124 73 68
Hoby Milner L 27 55 0 59.7 53 20 8 61 31 29
Ranger Suarez L 22 21 21 100.3 85 48 16 106 62 58
Adam Morgan L 28 56 0 71.3 72 23 13 71 39 36
Henderson Alvarez R 28 14 14 74.0 41 25 12 87 46 43
Colton Murray R 28 47 0 60.3 64 27 10 58 33 31
Cesar Ramos L 34 34 8 70.3 54 30 11 75 43 40
Kevin Siegrist L 28 59 0 51.3 61 29 9 46 29 27
Yacksel Rios R 25 44 4 70.3 70 34 13 70 43 40
Victor Arano R 23 45 0 57.3 60 20 12 59 34 32
Casey Fien R 34 43 0 45.3 39 10 9 50 28 26
Zac Curtis L 25 49 0 54.3 59 27 10 53 33 31
Mark Appel R 26 22 21 116.3 93 69 20 123 79 74
Pedro Beato R 31 56 0 56.7 46 26 10 60 35 33
Mario Sanchez R 23 24 5 59.0 37 20 12 70 40 37
Seranthony Dominguez R 23 17 15 61.0 62 44 11 62 43 40
Drew Anderson R 24 23 21 100.3 85 49 19 109 68 64
Jose Taveras R 24 23 23 123.0 103 45 29 140 85 79
Elniery Garcia L 23 20 19 103.0 74 45 21 117 72 67
Tom Windle L 26 39 0 49.3 44 29 9 52 34 32
Ricardo Pinto R 24 37 13 104.3 78 42 22 119 73 68
Joey DeNato L 26 36 2 47.7 37 38 8 52 35 33
Alexis Rivero R 23 45 1 63.0 52 31 13 70 44 41
Franklyn Kilome R 23 24 24 109.3 86 69 17 120 75 70
Ranfi Casimiro R 25 31 11 84.3 59 34 21 102 66 62

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Aaron Nola 178.7 745 24.3% 5.5% .301 3.37 3.21 78 72
Vince Velasquez 134.3 580 26.7% 8.3% .304 4.35 4.10 101 91
Jerad Eickhoff 149.0 647 20.9% 7.3% .297 4.53 4.47 105 100
Nick Pivetta 155.0 674 23.4% 8.2% .302 4.53 4.31 105 96
Tom Eshelman 133.3 573 17.8% 4.5% .298 4.72 4.57 109 102
Edubray Ramos 72.3 307 26.7% 8.1% .300 3.61 3.32 83 74
Pat Neshek 50.3 203 26.6% 3.9% .278 3.40 3.24 78 72
Zach Eflin 121.3 527 15.7% 5.5% .295 4.75 4.69 110 105
Luis Garcia 65.3 291 20.6% 11.3% .299 3.72 3.36 86 75
Ben Lively 161.0 704 17.5% 7.1% .291 4.98 4.93 115 110
Tommy Hunter 54.0 226 20.8% 5.8% .283 3.67 3.58 85 80
Hector Neris 72.0 309 26.9% 9.1% .297 4.00 4.13 92 92
Mark Leiter 108.7 472 22.5% 7.4% .297 4.89 4.85 113 108
Brandon Leibrandt 118.7 533 17.3% 9.0% .300 5.08 5.05 117 113
Austin Davis 60.7 267 21.3% 9.7% .299 4.30 4.16 99 93
Jake Thompson 161.0 727 16.2% 9.4% .294 5.25 5.39 121 120
Clay Buchholz 117.0 515 18.3% 7.8% .294 5.23 4.79 121 107
Hoby Milner 59.7 260 20.4% 7.7% .303 4.37 4.18 101 93
Ranger Suarez 100.3 455 18.7% 10.5% .300 5.20 5.15 120 115
Adam Morgan 71.3 308 23.4% 7.5% .293 4.54 4.52 105 101
Henderson Alvarez 74.0 334 12.3% 7.5% .296 5.23 5.21 121 116
Colton Murray 60.3 266 24.1% 10.2% .296 4.62 4.68 107 105
Cesar Ramos 70.3 316 17.1% 9.5% .292 5.12 4.98 118 111
Kevin Siegrist 51.3 229 26.6% 12.7% .289 4.73 4.76 109 106
Yacksel Rios 70.3 315 22.2% 10.8% .294 5.12 5.11 118 114
Victor Arano 57.3 251 23.9% 8.0% .301 5.02 4.99 116 111
Casey Fien 45.3 196 19.9% 5.1% .297 5.16 4.55 119 102
Zac Curtis 54.3 243 24.3% 11.1% .303 5.13 5.15 119 115
Mark Appel 116.3 541 17.2% 12.8% .292 5.72 5.73 132 128
Pedro Beato 56.7 256 18.0% 10.2% .292 5.24 5.26 121 117
Mario Sanchez 59.0 267 13.9% 7.5% .297 5.64 5.72 130 128
Seranthony Dominguez 61.0 289 21.5% 15.2% .304 5.90 5.83 136 130
Drew Anderson 100.3 459 18.5% 10.7% .300 5.74 5.57 133 124
Jose Taveras 123.0 554 18.6% 8.1% .301 5.78 5.84 134 130
Elniery Garcia 103.0 471 15.7% 9.6% .295 5.85 5.86 135 131
Tom Windle 49.3 229 19.2% 12.7% .299 5.84 5.63 135 126
Ricardo Pinto 104.3 474 16.5% 8.9% .297 5.87 5.73 135 128
Joey DeNato 47.7 233 15.9% 16.3% .299 6.23 6.30 144 141
Alexis Rivero 63.0 290 17.9% 10.7% .300 5.86 5.81 135 130
Franklyn Kilome 109.3 517 16.6% 13.3% .305 5.76 5.69 133 127
Ranfi Casimiro 84.3 389 15.2% 8.7% .300 6.62 6.38 153 143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Nola 178.7 9.12 2.07 0.91 125 4.3 Roy Halladay
Vince Velasquez 134.3 10.38 3.22 1.47 98 1.9 Aaron Sele
Jerad Eickhoff 149.0 8.15 2.84 1.45 94 1.8 Ed Wojna
Nick Pivetta 155.0 9.17 3.19 1.39 93 1.7 George Stablein
Tom Eshelman 133.3 6.89 1.76 1.55 91 1.3 Douglas Mathis
Edubray Ramos 72.3 10.20 3.11 1.00 117 1.1 Terry Adams
Pat Neshek 50.3 9.66 1.43 1.25 124 1.0 Rick Aguilera
Zach Eflin 121.3 6.16 2.15 1.41 89 1.0 Fred Newman
Luis Garcia 65.3 8.27 4.55 0.55 113 1.0 Don McMahon
Ben Lively 161.0 6.88 2.80 1.51 85 0.9 Steve Fireovid
Tommy Hunter 54.0 7.83 2.17 1.00 117 0.9 Jeff Tam
Hector Neris 72.0 10.38 3.50 1.38 105 0.9 Wayne Gomes
Mark Leiter 108.7 8.78 2.90 1.74 86 0.6 Albert Bustillos
Brandon Leibrandt 118.7 6.98 3.64 1.44 83 0.5 Jake Chapman
Austin Davis 60.7 8.46 3.86 1.04 98 0.4 Marcelino Lopez
Jake Thompson 161.0 6.60 3.80 1.57 80 0.4 Jose Jimenez
Clay Buchholz 117.0 7.23 3.08 1.46 82 0.4 Sid Fernandez
Hoby Milner 59.7 7.99 3.02 1.21 96 0.4 Gabe Gonzalez
Ranger Suarez 100.3 7.62 4.31 1.44 81 0.3 John Daniels
Adam Morgan 71.3 9.08 2.90 1.64 93 0.3 Dusty Bergman
Henderson Alvarez 74.0 4.99 3.04 1.46 81 0.2 Vern Ruhle
Colton Murray 60.3 9.55 4.03 1.49 91 0.2 Paul Abraham
Cesar Ramos 70.3 6.91 3.84 1.41 84 0.2 Johnny Schmitz
Kevin Siegrist 51.3 10.69 5.08 1.58 89 0.1 Randy Choate
Yacksel Rios 70.3 8.96 4.35 1.66 82 0.0 Blake Mayo
Victor Arano 57.3 9.42 3.14 1.88 84 -0.1 Justin Kaye
Casey Fien 45.3 7.74 1.99 1.79 83 -0.1 Jose Bautista
Zac Curtis 54.3 9.77 4.47 1.66 82 -0.2 Carlos Vasquez
Mark Appel 116.3 7.19 5.34 1.55 75 -0.2 Jaime Cocanower
Pedro Beato 56.7 7.31 4.13 1.59 81 -0.2 Ed Klieman
Mario Sanchez 59.0 5.64 3.05 1.83 75 -0.3 Dick Coffman
Seranthony Dominguez 61.0 9.15 6.49 1.62 71 -0.3 Adam Harben
Drew Anderson 100.3 7.62 4.40 1.70 73 -0.3 Ken Pumphrey
Jose Taveras 123.0 7.54 3.29 2.12 73 -0.4 Phil Huffman
Elniery Garcia 103.0 6.47 3.93 1.83 72 -0.5 Brian Barkley
Tom Windle 49.3 8.03 5.29 1.64 72 -0.6 Dean Brueggemann
Ricardo Pinto 104.3 6.73 3.62 1.90 72 -0.6 Jim Gutierrez
Joey DeNato 47.7 6.99 7.17 1.51 68 -0.7 Brian Adams
Alexis Rivero 63.0 7.43 4.43 1.86 72 -0.7 John Sheehan
Franklyn Kilome 109.3 7.08 5.68 1.40 73 -1.1 Rick Berg
Ranfi Casimiro 84.3 6.30 3.63 2.24 64 -1.3 Joe Vitko

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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drewsylvania
Member
drewsylvania

How much of a hitters’ paradise is Reading? It’s interesting that Eric put a 50 on Hoskins’ game power when he had 38 homers and 26 doubles in 2016 at Reading.

zwibi
Member
zwibi

Never understood why they downgrade prospects because of Reading. It cant be that much different that Citizens Bank Park with the juiced ball.