2018 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
San Diego hitters recorded the lowest collective WAR figure in the majors last year, compiling just seven wins as a group, or about 26 fewer than the Houston Astros’ cohort. This offseason, meanwhile, has seen the departure of Yangervis Solarte — who, for whatever his shortcomings, has nevertheless been the club’s most productive position player over the last three years. This would appear to spell trouble for erstwhile managing editor Dave Cameron and his new colleagues.

And yet, not that. A brief examination of the depth-chart image below reveals a Starting Eight that projects as profoundly average. And while that might not be regarded as welcome news for some clubs, it represents a promising development for the young Padres. There isn’t anything in the way of star-level power here — Manuel Margot (585 PA, 3.2 zWAR) and Wil Myers (648, 3.2) both profile more as above-average regulars than clear All-Stars — but there is also little in the way of glaring weakness.

Of some interest is how the team handles second base. Cory Spangenberg (527, 1.3) earns the top forecast of the players likely to receive time there, but Carlos Asuaje (609, 1.2) started about half the club’s games at second last season. Prospect Luis Urias (558, 1.8), meanwhile, has a better WAR forecast than either of them.

Pitchers
While the offense marches towards competence, the staff remains an area of real concern. ZiPS calls for zero of San Diego’s pitchers to reach the two-win threshold in 2018. Dinelson Lamet (149.1 IP, 1.9 zWAR) is the closest to that mark. He appears ready to serve as the club’s most effective starter, if not the nominal ace. Besides Lamet, only Luis Perdomo (148.2, 1.0) and Clayton Richard (148.0, 0.9) seem assured of a rotation spot. Bryan Mitchell (90.1, 1.2) is a deserving candidate by the numbers, too. Among the possible options for the fifth-starter role, Jordan Lyles (96.1, 0.3) earns the top projection.

One area in which the Padres measure up to any number of clubs is at the back of their bullpen. Formerly just a soft-tossing starter, lefty Brad Hand (77.0 IP, 74 ERA-, 1.6 zWAR) has emerged as legitimate relief ace. Kirby Yates (58.0, 86, 0.7) is the best of the rest in the bullpen, although a healthy Carter Capps (36.2, 83, 0.4) would probably deserve that title, too.

Bench/Prospects
The aforementioned Luis Urias receives the top projection among the Padres field players both (a) omitted from the depth-chart image below and (b) remain rookie-eligible in 2018. Franchy Cordero (558, 1.5) receives the second-best forecast by both criteria. Jeff Sullivan argued earlier this week that Cordero is the most exciting player on the team.

There appear to be very few diamonds in the rough that is San Diego’s collection of pitching currently. Joey Lucchesi (117.1 IP, 106 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) recorded the majority of his innings last season as a 24-year-old at High-A. He receives the organization’s sixth-best WAR projection among pitchers. Phil Maton (64.0, 88, 0.7) is comparable by the numbers to a number of the Padres’ other bullpen options.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Manuel Margot R 23 CF 585 65 144 22 10 12 51 20 8
Wil Myers R 27 1B 648 88 145 29 3 30 92 22 6
Freddy Galvis B 28 SS 621 67 148 27 6 13 63 13 4
Chase Headley B 34 3B 540 62 122 23 1 11 49 6 2
Austin Hedges R 25 C 402 39 87 17 1 15 55 4 2
Hunter Renfroe R 26 RF 570 66 130 28 3 27 82 5 1
Luis Urias R 21 SS 558 63 125 21 5 5 43 6 8
Jose Pirela R 28 LF 495 59 120 24 5 14 56 8 5
Franchy Cordero L 23 CF 558 65 127 21 9 16 68 14 6
Christian Villanueva R 27 3B 477 55 101 25 2 16 64 3 2
Cory Spangenberg L 27 3B 527 60 124 20 6 13 52 13 5
Carlos Asuaje L 26 2B 609 62 131 24 6 9 50 4 4
Franmil Reyes R 22 RF 580 66 125 26 2 22 80 3 5
Travis Jankowski L 27 CF 375 42 78 12 3 1 19 19 6
Fernando Tatis R 19 SS 537 59 101 19 4 17 58 20 12
Alex Dickerson L 28 LF 409 50 94 21 4 12 52 3 1
Rocky Gale R 30 C 378 34 79 14 2 3 30 1 0
Michael Gettys R 22 CF 536 58 100 17 4 16 52 17 12
Raffy Lopez L 30 C 308 31 62 11 1 7 32 1 0
Allen Cordoba R 22 SS 275 25 59 8 3 4 21 7 4
Erick Aybar B 34 SS 462 47 107 20 2 5 35 10 5
Ty France R 23 3B 560 58 117 23 2 11 52 3 3
Matt Szczur R 28 CF 301 34 63 12 2 5 26 7 4
Nick Schulz R 27 RF 472 48 89 17 2 14 47 4 4
Shane Peterson L 30 LF 402 43 91 19 3 11 43 8 1
Dusty Coleman R 31 SS 406 37 67 15 3 12 39 9 3
Jamie Romak R 32 1B 485 56 93 23 1 22 60 2 1
Luis Torrens R 22 C 184 14 36 7 1 1 12 1 1
Stephen McGee R 27 C 267 27 46 10 0 6 23 1 0
Tony Cruz R 31 C 242 21 48 9 0 5 24 0 1
Collin Cowgill R 32 CF 284 28 53 10 1 4 20 4 2
Austin Allen L 24 C 493 52 106 20 1 14 57 0 1
Forrestt Allday L 27 CF 334 31 64 9 0 1 17 7 7
Allen Craig R 33 1B 315 27 60 10 0 4 20 0 1
Josh Naylor L 21 1B 527 55 117 23 2 13 56 8 4
Javier Guerra L 22 SS 520 46 90 19 4 12 50 2 5
Nick Torres R 25 LF 501 48 109 22 2 9 48 4 4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Manuel Margot 585 6.5% 16.9% .145 .306 .267 .316 .412 .312 93
Wil Myers 648 10.6% 26.7% .219 .309 .254 .336 .474 .343 114
Freddy Galvis 621 5.8% 17.6% .136 .297 .258 .304 .394 .298 84
Chase Headley 540 9.4% 21.7% .121 .313 .255 .331 .376 .309 92
Austin Hedges 402 4.7% 25.4% .171 .275 .232 .272 .403 .284 75
Hunter Renfroe 570 5.3% 27.5% .216 .293 .244 .288 .460 .313 94
Luis Urias 558 9.3% 14.2% .094 .294 .255 .335 .349 .302 87
Jose Pirela 495 6.3% 18.0% .167 .298 .263 .312 .430 .316 96
Franchy Cordero 558 5.4% 31.9% .167 .338 .243 .290 .410 .298 84
Christian Villanueva 477 6.7% 22.4% .177 .269 .233 .288 .410 .295 83
Cory Spangenberg 527 7.0% 23.9% .148 .325 .259 .317 .407 .312 93
Carlos Asuaje 609 8.5% 19.0% .116 .290 .241 .312 .357 .294 81
Franmil Reyes 580 6.9% 28.3% .180 .293 .235 .288 .415 .298 84
Travis Jankowski 375 9.3% 23.5% .063 .314 .234 .312 .297 .275 69
Fernando Tatis 537 8.6% 32.6% .161 .284 .208 .279 .369 .280 73
Alex Dickerson 409 6.8% 20.5% .175 .293 .253 .311 .427 .311 93
Rocky Gale 378 5.3% 17.5% .078 .270 .227 .275 .305 .253 55
Michael Gettys 536 6.3% 41.0% .148 .324 .202 .262 .350 .265 62
Raffy Lopez 308 8.4% 26.9% .123 .291 .224 .293 .347 .279 72
Allen Cordoba 275 7.6% 19.6% .105 .285 .238 .302 .343 .281 73
Erick Aybar 462 6.1% 13.6% .092 .285 .254 .303 .346 .281 73
Ty France 560 5.5% 20.5% .120 .279 .233 .304 .353 .289 79
Matt Szczur 301 9.0% 19.6% .117 .286 .237 .313 .353 .292 81
Nick Schulz 472 8.9% 31.1% .149 .284 .210 .288 .359 .282 74
Shane Peterson 402 5.7% 24.4% .157 .303 .246 .293 .403 .298 84
Dusty Coleman 406 5.9% 40.9% .154 .281 .181 .238 .335 .246 50
Jamie Romak 485 7.8% 37.3% .207 .296 .211 .278 .418 .296 83
Luis Torrens 184 8.2% 20.1% .073 .276 .218 .291 .291 .257 57
Stephen McGee 267 11.2% 31.1% .121 .276 .198 .296 .319 .275 69
Tony Cruz 242 6.6% 25.6% .108 .276 .216 .274 .324 .259 59
Collin Cowgill 284 7.0% 28.2% .093 .280 .205 .270 .298 .252 54
Austin Allen 493 6.1% 24.9% .141 .286 .233 .284 .374 .283 74
Forrestt Allday 334 10.2% 18.3% .042 .275 .221 .312 .263 .264 62
Allen Craig 315 9.2% 24.4% .078 .279 .214 .295 .292 .265 63
Josh Naylor 527 6.1% 22.8% .135 .289 .239 .287 .373 .283 75
Javier Guerra 520 4.8% 37.5% .129 .276 .184 .225 .314 .231 40
Nick Torres 501 3.8% 29.1% .112 .312 .230 .267 .342 .263 61

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Manuel Margot 585 4.9 98 10 3.2 Marquis Grissom
Wil Myers 648 6.0 120 3 3.2 Marty Cordova
Freddy Galvis 621 4.5 90 1 2.2 Angel Berroa
Chase Headley 540 4.6 95 0 1.9 Dave Hollins
Austin Hedges 402 3.8 82 7 1.9 Ronny Paulino
Hunter Renfroe 570 4.8 101 5 1.9 Dante Bichette
Luis Urias 558 4.0 89 0 1.8 Ernest Riles
Jose Pirela 495 4.9 102 4 1.7 Matt Diaz
Franchy Cordero 558 4.3 90 1 1.5 Todd Dunwoody
Christian Villanueva 477 4.1 89 3 1.4 Mike Coolbaugh
Cory Spangenberg 527 4.8 98 -6 1.3 Mark Teahen
Carlos Asuaje 609 3.9 84 0 1.2 Russ Adams
Franmil Reyes 580 4.1 90 7 1.1 Willis Otanez
Travis Jankowski 375 3.5 69 5 0.9 Curtis Goodwin
Fernando Tatis 537 3.4 77 -1 0.7 Jose Valentin
Alex Dickerson 409 4.8 101 -2 0.7 Stu Pederson
Rocky Gale 378 3.0 60 5 0.5 Izzy Molina
Michael Gettys 536 3.0 67 8 0.5 Daryl Boston
Raffy Lopez 308 3.6 75 -3 0.5 Dwight Lowry
Allen Cordoba 275 3.6 77 0 0.5 Nate Spears
Erick Aybar 462 3.8 79 -3 0.5 Todd Haney
Ty France 560 3.7 80 -5 0.4 Brennan King
Matt Szczur 301 3.9 83 -2 0.3 Jeff McKnight
Nick Schulz 472 3.4 77 5 0.2 Ryan Goleski
Shane Peterson 402 4.4 89 -3 0.2 Alexis Gomez
Dusty Coleman 406 2.7 56 4 0.0 Dave Matranga
Jamie Romak 485 4.0 88 -1 0.0 Leroy Stanton
Luis Torrens 184 2.9 61 -1 0.0 Matt Treanor
Stephen McGee 267 3.2 70 -6 -0.1 Bryce Terveen
Tony Cruz 242 3.0 64 -2 -0.1 Chad Moeller
Collin Cowgill 284 2.7 56 3 -0.1 Alan Cockrell
Austin Allen 493 3.7 79 -14 -0.2 Roger LaFrancois
Forrestt Allday 334 2.6 61 0 -0.3 Adam Bourassa
Allen Craig 315 2.9 63 2 -0.7 Ryan McGuire
Josh Naylor 527 3.8 80 -3 -0.8 James Loney
Javier Guerra 520 2.2 46 5 -0.9 Brandon Cromer
Nick Torres 501 3.1 66 0 -1.0 Brandt Humphry

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Dinelson Lamet R 25 29 29 149.3 178 69 17 126 70 65
Brad Hand L 28 73 0 77.0 102 27 8 59 28 26
Bryan Mitchell R 27 32 14 90.3 77 34 6 88 41 38
Luis Perdomo R 25 28 25 148.7 108 54 16 164 79 74
Clayton Richard L 34 27 24 148.0 106 45 18 168 79 74
Joey Lucchesi L 25 23 22 117.3 109 38 18 118 61 57
Walker Lockett R 24 20 19 106.0 67 26 13 117 56 52
Kirby Yates R 31 60 0 58.0 83 23 9 47 25 23
Phil Maton R 25 63 0 64.0 76 19 9 57 28 26
Michael Mariot R 29 43 0 55.7 56 22 5 52 25 23
Buddy Baumann L 30 34 4 49.3 50 20 5 45 22 21
Kazuhisa Makita R 33 48 0 54.3 31 9 4 58 24 22
Jacob Nix R 22 20 19 101.0 65 27 13 114 56 52
Jonathan Aro R 27 30 1 54.0 52 19 6 52 26 24
Carter Capps R 27 36 0 36.7 40 15 3 32 15 14
Cal Quantrill R 23 16 16 101.3 91 38 16 105 57 53
Eric Lauer L 23 21 20 108.0 96 43 17 112 61 57
Kyle McGrath L 25 44 0 53.3 53 11 8 52 25 23
Craig Stammen R 34 49 0 63.7 57 22 8 63 31 29
Jordan Lyles R 27 39 12 96.3 76 36 11 101 54 50
Colin Rea R 27 17 17 86.0 61 33 11 93 49 46
Brad Wieck L 26 44 0 46.3 61 31 5 38 22 21
Colten Brewer R 25 45 0 59.0 53 24 7 58 30 28
Eric Yardley R 27 50 0 65.0 46 19 7 69 33 31
Cesar Vargas R 26 40 3 65.3 62 35 7 63 35 33
Jose Torres L 24 61 0 66.0 62 22 10 66 34 32
Robbie Erlin L 27 15 14 74.7 54 22 12 83 44 41
Tyson Ross R 31 15 14 70.3 52 43 6 73 42 39
T.J. Weir R 26 43 4 73.0 65 31 11 74 41 38
Brett Kennedy R 23 24 24 121.0 102 50 20 129 73 68
Trey Wingenter R 24 49 0 47.7 56 26 7 43 26 24
Jarred Cosart R 28 21 20 97.3 67 59 11 101 60 56
Jerry Keel L 24 24 18 109.3 84 43 17 120 66 62
Adam Cimber R 27 49 1 68.7 48 15 11 77 39 36
Andre Rienzo R 29 26 9 61.0 56 40 8 61 37 35
Matt Strahm L 26 34 12 83.7 93 33 18 84 51 48
Kyle Lloyd R 27 27 24 129.7 109 56 20 139 80 75
Jose Castillo L 22 43 0 51.0 45 30 6 51 30 28
Christian Friedrich L 30 29 16 94.7 80 43 14 101 59 55
Bryan Rodriguez R 26 26 23 132.3 67 46 18 156 82 77
Aroni Nina R 28 29 0 35.7 29 28 3 36 22 21
Chris Huffman R 25 25 23 126.0 84 42 21 143 79 74
Zach Lee R 26 22 20 104.7 68 36 17 120 66 62
Miguel Diaz R 23 32 9 63.0 50 34 10 67 41 38
Yimmi Brasoban R 24 28 0 33.3 26 25 4 35 21 20
Dillon Overton L 26 27 21 115.7 72 34 22 136 76 71
Jered Weaver R 35 21 21 118.0 76 37 25 134 78 73
Chris R. Young R 39 26 12 81.0 77 40 19 88 57 53
Robert Stock R 28 38 0 53.0 41 49 5 55 36 34
Jake Esch R 28 21 19 104.0 64 42 19 125 72 67
Tyrell Jenkins R 25 22 18 99.7 65 62 16 112 72 67

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Dinelson Lamet 149.3 643 27.7% 10.7% .295 3.92 3.78 95 89
Brad Hand 77.0 317 32.2% 8.5% .288 3.04 2.95 74 69
Bryan Mitchell 90.3 393 19.6% 8.7% .301 3.79 3.55 92 83
Luis Perdomo 148.7 664 16.3% 8.1% .310 4.48 4.27 108 100
Clayton Richard 148.0 657 16.1% 6.8% .311 4.50 4.26 109 100
Joey Lucchesi 117.3 508 21.5% 7.5% .297 4.37 4.42 106 104
Walker Lockett 106.0 461 14.5% 5.6% .299 4.42 4.42 107 104
Kirby Yates 58.0 244 34.0% 9.4% .302 3.57 3.55 86 84
Phil Maton 64.0 268 28.4% 7.1% .298 3.66 3.64 88 86
Michael Mariot 55.7 241 23.2% 9.1% .301 3.72 3.55 90 83
Buddy Baumann 49.3 213 23.5% 9.4% .296 3.83 3.79 93 89
Kazuhisa Makita 54.3 230 13.5% 3.9% .295 3.64 3.64 88 85
Jacob Nix 101.0 444 14.6% 6.1% .303 4.63 4.52 112 106
Jonathan Aro 54.0 233 22.3% 8.2% .301 4.00 3.90 97 92
Carter Capps 36.7 157 25.5% 9.6% .299 3.44 3.43 83 81
Cal Quantrill 101.3 447 20.4% 8.5% .301 4.71 4.72 114 111
Eric Lauer 108.0 479 20.0% 9.0% .300 4.75 4.79 115 113
Kyle McGrath 53.3 223 23.8% 4.9% .295 3.88 3.80 94 89
Craig Stammen 63.7 276 20.7% 8.0% .294 4.10 4.04 99 95
Jordan Lyles 96.3 426 17.8% 8.5% .303 4.67 4.31 113 101
Colin Rea 86.0 384 15.9% 8.6% .299 4.81 4.69 116 110
Brad Wieck 46.3 208 29.3% 14.9% .303 4.08 4.06 99 96
Colten Brewer 59.0 259 20.5% 9.3% .297 4.27 4.23 103 99
Eric Yardley 65.0 283 16.3% 6.7% .298 4.29 4.11 104 97
Cesar Vargas 65.3 294 21.1% 11.9% .301 4.55 4.40 110 103
Jose Torres 66.0 286 21.7% 7.7% .298 4.36 4.43 106 104
Robbie Erlin 74.7 329 16.4% 6.7% .298 4.94 4.80 120 113
Tyson Ross 70.3 327 15.9% 13.1% .305 4.99 4.88 121 115
T.J. Weir 73.0 324 20.1% 9.6% .296 4.68 4.73 113 111
Brett Kennedy 121.0 542 18.8% 9.2% .300 5.06 5.03 122 118
Trey Wingenter 47.7 212 26.4% 12.3% .300 4.53 4.54 110 107
Jarred Cosart 97.3 452 14.8% 13.1% .288 5.18 5.13 125 121
Jerry Keel 109.3 491 17.1% 8.8% .303 5.10 5.01 123 118
Adam Cimber 68.7 298 16.1% 5.0% .300 4.72 4.63 114 109
Andre Rienzo 61.0 284 19.7% 14.1% .301 5.16 5.19 125 122
Matt Strahm 83.7 368 25.3% 9.0% .301 5.16 5.06 125 119
Kyle Lloyd 129.7 584 18.7% 9.6% .304 5.21 4.96 126 117
Jose Castillo 51.0 234 19.2% 12.8% .300 4.94 4.86 120 114
Christian Friedrich 94.7 428 18.7% 10.0% .302 5.23 4.78 127 112
Bryan Rodriguez 132.3 599 11.2% 7.7% .299 5.24 5.11 127 120
Aroni Nina 35.7 171 17.0% 16.4% .303 5.30 5.06 128 119
Chris Huffman 126.0 563 14.9% 7.5% .299 5.29 5.18 128 122
Zach Lee 104.7 470 14.5% 7.7% .299 5.33 5.14 129 121
Miguel Diaz 63.0 290 17.2% 11.7% .297 5.43 5.44 131 128
Yimmi Brasoban 33.3 160 16.3% 15.6% .301 5.40 5.50 131 129
Dillon Overton 115.7 517 13.9% 6.6% .298 5.52 5.40 134 127
Jered Weaver 118.0 525 14.5% 7.0% .286 5.57 5.69 135 134
Chris R. Young 81.0 371 20.8% 10.8% .295 5.89 5.75 142 135
Robert Stock 53.0 263 15.6% 18.6% .303 5.77 5.72 140 135
Jake Esch 104.0 479 13.4% 8.8% .305 5.80 5.66 140 133
Tyrell Jenkins 99.7 473 13.7% 13.1% .295 6.05 5.93 146 139

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Dinelson Lamet 149.3 10.73 4.16 1.02 100 1.9 Ubaldo Jimenez
Brad Hand 77.0 11.92 3.16 0.94 129 1.6 Jesse Orosco
Bryan Mitchell 90.3 7.67 3.39 0.60 105 1.2 Jim McDonald
Luis Perdomo 148.7 6.54 3.27 0.97 87 1.0 Mike LaCoss
Clayton Richard 148.0 6.45 2.74 1.09 87 0.9 Mark Hendrickson
Joey Lucchesi 117.3 8.36 2.91 1.38 89 0.9 Allen Watson
Walker Lockett 106.0 5.69 2.21 1.10 89 0.8 Fred Newman
Kirby Yates 58.0 12.88 3.57 1.40 111 0.7 Cecilio Guante
Phil Maton 64.0 10.69 2.67 1.27 107 0.7 Edwin Nunez
Michael Mariot 55.7 9.05 3.56 0.81 107 0.6 Sean Green
Buddy Baumann 49.3 9.12 3.65 0.91 103 0.6 Javier Lopez
Kazuhisa Makita 54.3 5.13 1.49 0.66 107 0.6 Dick Coffman
Jacob Nix 101.0 5.79 2.41 1.16 84 0.5 Rick Wise
Jonathan Aro 54.0 8.67 3.17 1.00 99 0.4 Mark Brown
Carter Capps 36.7 9.82 3.68 0.74 114 0.4 Jonathan Edwards
Cal Quantrill 101.3 8.08 3.38 1.42 83 0.4 Jose Guzman
Eric Lauer 108.0 8.00 3.58 1.42 82 0.4 Zach Jackson
Kyle McGrath 53.3 8.94 1.86 1.35 101 0.4 Bob Baxter
Craig Stammen 63.7 8.06 3.11 1.13 95 0.4 Todd Williams
Jordan Lyles 96.3 7.10 3.36 1.03 84 0.3 Stan Kyles
Colin Rea 86.0 6.38 3.45 1.15 81 0.3 Brian Allard
Brad Wieck 46.3 11.85 6.02 0.97 96 0.2 Buzz Oliver
Colten Brewer 59.0 8.08 3.66 1.07 93 0.2 Mike Cather
Eric Yardley 65.0 6.37 2.63 0.97 91 0.2 Pedro Borbon
Cesar Vargas 65.3 8.54 4.82 0.96 87 0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Jose Torres 66.0 8.45 3.00 1.36 91 0.2 Bob Baxter
Robbie Erlin 74.7 6.51 2.65 1.45 79 0.1 Dave Gassner
Tyson Ross 70.3 6.65 5.50 0.77 78 0.1 Tony Cloninger
T.J. Weir 73.0 8.01 3.82 1.36 83 0.0 Greg Booker
Brett Kennedy 121.0 7.59 3.72 1.49 77 0.0 Tom Rowe
Trey Wingenter 47.7 10.57 4.91 1.32 86 0.0 Brad Voyles
Jarred Cosart 97.3 6.20 5.46 1.02 77 0.0 Joe Sparma
Jerry Keel 109.3 6.91 3.54 1.40 77 -0.1 Nate Robertson
Adam Cimber 68.7 6.29 1.97 1.44 83 -0.1 Tony Phillips
Andre Rienzo 61.0 8.26 5.90 1.18 77 -0.1 Steve Green
Matt Strahm 83.7 10.00 3.55 1.94 77 -0.1 Craig Minetto
Kyle Lloyd 129.7 7.57 3.89 1.39 75 -0.2 Steve Sparks
Jose Castillo 51.0 7.94 5.29 1.06 80 -0.2 Philip Barzilla
Christian Friedrich 94.7 7.61 4.09 1.33 75 -0.2 Chris Peters
Bryan Rodriguez 132.3 4.56 3.13 1.22 75 -0.3 Michael Macdonald
Aroni Nina 35.7 7.32 7.07 0.76 75 -0.3 Newt Kimball
Chris Huffman 126.0 6.00 3.00 1.50 74 -0.3 Royal Clayton
Zach Lee 104.7 5.85 3.10 1.46 73 -0.3 Matt O’Brien
Miguel Diaz 63.0 7.14 4.86 1.43 72 -0.3 Dan Rambo
Yimmi Brasoban 33.3 7.02 6.75 1.08 72 -0.3 Dave Cole
Dillon Overton 115.7 5.60 2.65 1.71 72 -0.5 Evan MacLane
Jered Weaver 118.0 5.80 2.82 1.91 71 -0.6 Jared Fernandez
Chris R. Young 81.0 8.56 4.44 2.11 67 -0.7 Michael Riley
Robert Stock 53.0 6.96 8.32 0.85 68 -0.8 Gary Wagner
Jake Esch 104.0 5.54 3.63 1.64 67 -0.9 Dennis Tankersley
Tyrell Jenkins 99.7 5.87 5.60 1.44 65 -1.1 Randy O’Neal

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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