2018 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
“Baseball’s biggest disappointment,” is how Jeff Sullivan characterized the 2017 Giants back at the end of September. And not without reason: the club produced the league’s worst record relative to the preseason projections, a development expressed in graphic form just below.

On the one hand, that’s bad for the 2017 Giants. On the other, though, it’s probably good for the 2018 version of the club. The Giants are likely due — due perhaps more than any other team — for positive regression. Even if San Francisco were to field precisely the same roster this next season, that same precise roster would almost certainly outperform its disappointing predecessor.

The ZiPS projections appear to support this hypothesis. Here, for example, are the forecasts for San Francisco’s top-four returning hitters:

Positive Regression for Top Giants Hitters
Player 2017 PA 2017 WAR 2018 zPA 2018 zWAR PA Diff WAR Diff
Buster Posey 568 4.3 534 4.9 -34 0.6
Brandon Crawford 570 2.0 567 3.5 -3 1.5
Brandon Belt 451 2.3 503 3.3 52 1.0
Joe Panik 573 2.0 571 3.0 -2 1.0
Average 541 2.7 544 3.7 3 1.0
Headings marked with -z- represent ZiPS projections for 2018.

The core returning members of the Giants’ offense — Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, and Buster Posey — are projected, on average, to produce an additional win each in 2018. That’s in roughly the same number of plate appearances as 2017, as well, meaning that ZiPS is calling for all four simply to play better this season.

This isn’t to say the club’s field-playing cohort is without flaw. No outfielder, for example, is projected even to produce an average season. Nevertheless, a combination of positive regression and Evan Longoria (645 PA, 3.1 zWAR) ought to facilitate easy improvement over last year’s performance.

Pitchers
Even with something more like a full season of Madison Bumgarner (166.1 IP, 2.8 zWAR), the prognosis for the pitching staff isn’t quite as encouraging. The left-hander recorded a 22.4% strikeout rate during his 17 healthy starts last year, his lowest mark since 2010, when the the league-average rate was three points lower than in 2017. ZiPS calls for only a minor rebound in that department, up to 24.7%. The overall forecast remains quite strong, of course, just not necessarily in the context of Bumgarner’s established levels.

Johnny Cueto (174.0, 2.7) and Jeff Samardzija (177.2, 2.4) join Bumgarner atop the rotation. After that triumvirate, however, there’s little substance. Ty Blach (153.0, 0.6) and Chris Stratton (127.1, 0.4) are forecast for just a win between them in something approaching a full complement of starter’s innings. Few, if any, legitimate alternatives exist at the moment.

In the bullpen, Mark Melancon (50.0 IP, 65 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) returns to close games and, if Dan Szymborski’s computer is to be believed, ought to bear greater resemblance to the pitcher whom San Francisco signed last offseason than the one who posted a worse-than-average ERA in 2017. Hunter Strickland (60.1, 79 ERA-, 0.9), meanwhile, joins Melancon as one of two Giants relievers forecast to prevent runs at a rate that’s at least 20% better than average.

Bench/Prospects
While Gorkys Hernandez (413 PA, 0.7 zWAR) is denoted as the team’s starting center field in the depth-chart graphic below, that distinction could also fall to Steven Duggar (457, -0.3), although the projections favor the former at the moment. The Giants signed former Pittsburgh farmhand Alen Hanson (434, 1.1) to a minor-league deal in December. Hanson receives the top forecast of the likely non-starters.

Will Smith (39.2 IP, 77 ERA-, 0.6 zWAR) is omitted from the depth chart due to his rehab from Tommy John surgery. He would represent a formidable addition to the back end of the bullpen, however. He’s attempting to come back by Opening Day. Even an average return time, though, would place his likely return in May.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Giants, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Buster Posey R 31 C 534 60 140 26 1 13 68 5 1
Brandon Crawford L 31 SS 567 59 131 28 5 15 80 4 4
Brandon Belt L 30 1B 503 66 110 27 4 18 63 4 3
Evan Longoria R 32 3B 645 69 161 38 3 21 84 3 2
Joe Panik L 27 2B 571 69 147 27 5 10 60 4 1
Alen Hanson B 25 2B 434 51 97 16 9 8 37 20 9
Jarrett Parker L 29 LF 392 46 80 16 2 13 46 6 4
Jae-Gyun Hwang R 30 3B 496 49 111 23 3 12 54 8 5
Kelby Tomlinson R 28 2B 438 48 100 13 3 2 28 20 6
Gorkys Hernandez R 30 CF 413 44 90 19 2 4 31 12 5
Hunter Pence R 35 RF 474 55 109 17 4 13 58 3 3
Slade Heathcott L 27 CF 412 43 84 15 4 9 38 7 5
Ryder Jones L 24 3B 473 49 103 23 3 12 47 5 1
Austin Slater R 25 LF 420 45 97 17 1 10 44 4 4
Aramis Garcia R 25 C 409 39 84 18 1 10 43 0 0
Hector Sanchez B 28 C 196 20 43 9 0 8 32 0 0
Chris Marrero R 29 1B 442 48 100 21 2 15 49 1 0
Jerry Sands R 30 1B 313 32 66 12 2 8 34 1 1
Aaron Hill R 36 2B 313 31 67 12 1 5 31 3 1
Bryan Reynolds B 23 CF 517 54 109 21 5 9 51 3 2
Juniel Querecuto B 25 SS 376 34 81 13 2 3 28 4 3
Mac Williamson R 27 RF 461 52 98 21 1 15 52 4 2
Miguel Gomez B 25 2B 403 42 103 18 2 9 44 1 1
Wynton Bernard R 27 CF 426 43 95 17 3 5 31 20 7
Conor Gillaspie L 30 3B 270 25 65 15 2 5 29 1 2
Ali Castillo R 29 2B 396 33 90 14 2 1 27 8 5
Orlando Calixte R 26 RF 468 47 102 17 3 10 43 15 4
Michael Morse R 36 1B 274 20 57 12 1 8 26 0 0
C.J. Hinojosa R 23 SS 489 47 104 17 2 6 38 5 5
Chris Shaw L 24 LF 541 58 118 28 2 19 64 0 0
Justin Ruggiano R 36 LF 240 24 51 11 1 7 25 3 3
Ryan Howard R 23 SS 554 51 133 18 0 7 43 5 3
Pablo Sandoval B 31 3B 424 41 98 18 1 10 45 0 1
Nick Hundley R 34 C 304 26 66 16 1 7 32 1 1
Josh Rutledge R 29 3B 290 31 59 11 2 3 22 3 1
Steven Duggar L 24 RF 457 47 89 17 3 8 37 11 8
Heath Quinn R 23 RF 325 31 63 11 1 8 29 1 0
Chase d’Arnaud R 31 2B 374 40 79 14 4 3 28 16 6
Carlos Moncrief L 29 RF 316 31 63 14 1 6 30 5 2
Ryan Lollis L 31 1B 396 35 86 14 2 3 28 4 1
Juan Ciriaco R 34 2B 233 21 51 10 1 3 20 7 1
Luigi Rodriguez L 25 LF 340 32 66 13 2 9 31 8 7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Buster Posey 534 9.7% 11.2% .142 .314 .297 .369 .439 .343 113
Brandon Crawford 567 8.3% 19.9% .163 .299 .258 .321 .421 .313 94
Brandon Belt 503 13.9% 24.3% .208 .317 .258 .364 .466 .354 121
Evan Longoria 645 6.4% 17.2% .181 .299 .272 .319 .453 .325 101
Joe Panik 571 8.1% 9.8% .131 .304 .288 .349 .419 .329 104
Alen Hanson 434 5.5% 21.0% .145 .292 .242 .284 .387 .286 76
Jarrett Parker 392 9.4% 32.1% .169 .316 .229 .309 .397 .304 88
Jae-Gyun Hwang 496 6.0% 24.2% .142 .299 .242 .289 .384 .287 77
Kelby Tomlinson 438 8.2% 18.3% .064 .312 .254 .320 .318 .283 74
Gorkys Hernandez 413 8.2% 20.6% .094 .303 .243 .310 .337 .284 75
Hunter Pence 474 7.4% 19.8% .147 .291 .251 .308 .399 .304 88
Slade Heathcott 412 7.8% 30.8% .135 .318 .227 .294 .362 .286 76
Ryder Jones 473 5.9% 23.9% .150 .291 .237 .290 .387 .290 78
Austin Slater 420 7.1% 23.8% .128 .315 .253 .310 .380 .300 85
Aramis Garcia 409 5.4% 28.6% .131 .289 .220 .269 .352 .269 65
Hector Sanchez 196 5.1% 26.5% .180 .280 .235 .276 .415 .291 79
Chris Marrero 442 6.1% 22.2% .172 .284 .245 .294 .417 .302 87
Jerry Sands 313 9.3% 24.0% .143 .291 .236 .308 .379 .297 83
Aaron Hill 313 8.3% 17.9% .104 .278 .239 .307 .343 .284 75
Bryan Reynolds 517 5.2% 25.0% .120 .288 .226 .271 .346 .266 63
Juniel Querecuto 376 5.9% 21.0% .075 .292 .233 .282 .308 .259 58
Mac Williamson 461 6.7% 29.3% .161 .303 .232 .293 .393 .294 81
Miguel Gomez 403 2.7% 14.6% .126 .292 .265 .286 .392 .289 78
Wynton Bernard 426 5.6% 20.0% .097 .296 .242 .290 .338 .275 69
Conor Gillaspie 270 5.6% 13.3% .135 .282 .258 .300 .393 .294 82
Ali Castillo 396 4.3% 12.1% .057 .274 .243 .277 .299 .253 55
Orlando Calixte 468 5.1% 24.6% .121 .293 .233 .272 .355 .270 66
Michael Morse 274 7.3% 31.0% .153 .312 .230 .296 .383 .294 81
C.J. Hinojosa 489 6.3% 15.5% .087 .266 .233 .283 .320 .264 61
Chris Shaw 541 6.1% 29.9% .178 .307 .236 .287 .414 .297 83
Justin Ruggiano 240 6.3% 26.7% .155 .291 .232 .288 .386 .290 79
Ryan Howard 554 3.2% 16.2% .074 .292 .254 .283 .328 .266 63
Pablo Sandoval 424 5.9% 16.5% .128 .278 .250 .297 .378 .289 78
Nick Hundley 304 5.3% 26.0% .137 .294 .232 .271 .368 .271 66
Josh Rutledge 290 6.9% 27.2% .091 .306 .224 .287 .316 .265 62
Steven Duggar 457 9.6% 30.6% .115 .308 .218 .295 .333 .277 70
Heath Quinn 325 6.2% 33.2% .123 .297 .210 .268 .333 .263 61
Chase d’Arnaud 374 5.9% 20.9% .090 .286 .229 .282 .319 .263 61
Carlos Moncrief 316 8.2% 27.2% .119 .292 .221 .287 .340 .272 67
Ryan Lollis 396 5.8% 14.9% .074 .270 .235 .282 .309 .259 58
Juan Ciriaco 233 4.7% 20.2% .096 .282 .234 .268 .330 .257 57
Luigi Rodriguez 340 5.0% 37.4% .138 .310 .208 .249 .346 .254 55

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Buster Posey 534 6.3 119 7 4.9 Thurman Munson
Brandon Crawford 567 4.8 100 10 3.5 Jay Bell
Brandon Belt 503 6.1 124 7 3.3 Leon Durham
Evan Longoria 645 5.4 107 1 3.1 Tim Wallach
Joe Panik 571 5.6 108 1 3.0 Ken Boswell
Alen Hanson 434 4.0 80 4 1.1 Chone Figgins
Jarrett Parker 392 4.2 91 4 1.0 Terrell Lowery
Jae-Gyun Hwang 496 3.9 81 2 1.0 Chuck Jackson
Kelby Tomlinson 438 3.9 75 2 0.9 Esteban German
Gorkys Hernandez 413 3.8 76 1 0.7 Pedro Swann
Hunter Pence 474 4.4 91 0 0.7 Fernando Tatis
Slade Heathcott 412 3.6 78 1 0.6 Jed Hansen
Ryder Jones 473 4.1 82 -3 0.6 Tracy Woodson
Austin Slater 420 4.1 87 1 0.6 Dave Sax
Aramis Garcia 409 3.3 67 -1 0.5 Alvin Colina
Hector Sanchez 196 4.0 85 -4 0.3 Erik Kratz
Chris Marrero 442 4.4 91 -1 0.2 Nate Gold
Jerry Sands 313 4.1 86 1 0.2 Ray Giannelli
Aaron Hill 313 3.8 77 -3 0.2 Rene Gonzales
Bryan Reynolds 517 3.3 67 2 0.1 Marcus Thames
Juniel Querecuto 376 3.0 61 2 0.1 Adam Haley
Mac Williamson 461 4.1 85 -3 0.1 Jason Perry
Miguel Gomez 403 4.1 82 -6 0.1 Jose Lopez
Wynton Bernard 426 3.7 71 -3 0.0 Manny Martinez
Conor Gillaspie 270 4.2 87 -5 0.0 Tom Foley
Ali Castillo 396 2.9 57 5 0.0 Onix Concepcion
Orlando Calixte 468 3.6 69 4 0.0 Mauricio Nunez
Michael Morse 274 4.0 83 -1 -0.1 Andres Galarraga
C.J. Hinojosa 489 3.1 64 -2 -0.2 Keoni DeRenne
Chris Shaw 541 4.2 88 -7 -0.2 Glenn Davis
Justin Ruggiano 240 3.8 81 -2 -0.2 Willie Horton
Ryan Howard 554 3.3 66 -5 -0.2 Pedro Lopez
Pablo Sandoval 424 4.0 82 -9 -0.2 Geoff Blum
Nick Hundley 304 3.5 72 -7 -0.2 Randy Knorr
Josh Rutledge 290 3.2 64 -3 -0.3 Frank Kremblas
Steven Duggar 457 3.3 71 1 -0.3 Andy Tomberlin
Heath Quinn 325 3.1 63 1 -0.5 Lorenzo Bagley
Chase d’Arnaud 374 3.3 63 -4 -0.5 Aaron Holbert
Carlos Moncrief 316 3.4 70 -4 -0.8 Brian Brady
Ryan Lollis 396 3.1 61 3 -0.9 Tim Leiper
Juan Ciriaco 233 3.4 62 -8 -0.9 Billy Martin
Luigi Rodriguez 340 2.7 60 1 -0.9 Jason Herrick

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Madison Bumgarner L 28 26 26 166.3 169 34 23 151 68 64
Johnny Cueto R 32 28 28 174.0 155 48 20 163 75 70
Jeff Samardzija R 33 28 28 177.3 163 35 22 170 80 75
Mark Melancon R 33 53 0 50.0 48 9 3 44 16 15
Hunter Strickland R 29 67 0 60.3 58 21 5 54 24 22
Matt Gage L 25 25 25 139.3 87 41 14 156 73 68
Andrew Suarez L 25 25 23 143.3 112 39 21 156 76 71
D.J. Snelten L 26 53 0 69.3 57 28 4 67 29 27
Derek Law R 27 64 0 65.3 57 24 4 63 28 26
Will Smith L 28 48 0 39.7 48 19 3 34 15 14
Ty Blach L 27 31 24 153.0 83 41 18 172 83 78
Cory Gearrin R 32 60 0 56.3 55 26 5 51 25 23
Chris Stratton R 27 26 23 127.3 101 54 16 135 71 66
Sam Dyson R 30 63 0 63.0 48 25 5 63 30 28
Tyler Beede R 25 19 19 103.7 73 41 13 114 58 54
Kraig Sitton L 29 45 1 58.7 36 18 5 63 29 27
Tyler Rogers R 27 56 0 71.3 44 32 5 75 35 33
Tyler Herb R 26 25 24 136.7 98 61 17 148 79 74
Tyler Cyr R 25 46 0 54.3 55 31 5 51 27 25
Matt Reynolds L 33 34 0 33.3 28 11 4 34 16 15
Cory Taylor R 24 25 24 119.0 88 60 14 127 68 64
Julian Fernandez R 22 51 0 53.3 41 32 3 52 27 25
Kyle Crick R 25 58 0 57.3 61 42 4 49 29 27
Pierce Johnson R 27 33 7 64.0 73 40 9 59 35 33
Albert Suarez R 28 26 15 94.0 74 31 16 101 55 51
Chase Johnson R 26 21 15 80.0 59 38 10 86 46 43
Steven Okert L 26 64 0 55.3 54 22 8 55 29 27
Reyes Moronta R 25 48 0 47.0 59 29 6 41 25 23
Rodolfo Martinez R 24 37 0 36.3 25 16 3 38 19 18
Ryan Webb R 32 31 0 33.7 22 13 3 36 18 17
Bryan Morris R 31 40 0 38.0 30 19 5 40 21 20
Sam Coonrod R 25 24 20 105.0 80 56 14 112 63 59
Roberto Gomez R 28 34 14 93.3 66 43 12 103 56 52
Collin Balester R 32 29 1 41.7 34 19 6 44 25 23
Carlos Alvarado R 28 41 0 52.3 53 27 8 53 30 28
Casey Kelly R 28 21 17 94.0 66 39 14 105 58 54
Joan Gregorio R 26 20 17 86.0 80 46 14 89 54 50
Josh Osich L 29 63 0 52.0 47 29 7 52 31 29
Jose Valdez R 28 51 0 59.0 56 33 9 59 35 33
Sam Wolff R 27 30 8 58.0 56 34 10 59 37 35
Ryan Halstead R 26 46 0 47.0 39 12 10 53 29 27
Dusten Knight R 27 39 2 69.7 66 34 12 72 43 40
Seth Rosin R 29 32 1 41.3 33 15 9 47 28 26
Vic Black R 30 36 0 38.0 32 41 5 38 29 27
Jordan Johnson R 24 21 16 88.0 63 45 17 101 61 57
Matt Cain R 33 23 20 106.3 70 39 21 127 73 68
Dan Slania R 26 30 20 118.0 90 54 22 134 79 74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Madison Bumgarner 166.3 684 24.7% 5.0% .283 3.46 3.61 83 88
Johnny Cueto 174.0 733 21.1% 6.5% .285 3.62 3.82 87 93
Jeff Samardzija 177.3 737 22.1% 4.7% .290 3.81 3.59 92 87
Mark Melancon 50.0 203 23.6% 4.4% .289 2.70 2.62 65 64
Hunter Strickland 60.3 256 22.7% 8.2% .288 3.28 3.36 79 82
Matt Gage 139.3 615 14.1% 6.7% .305 4.39 4.23 106 103
Andrew Suarez 143.3 625 17.9% 6.2% .303 4.46 4.46 107 108
D.J. Snelten 69.3 303 18.8% 9.2% .300 3.50 3.60 84 88
Derek Law 65.3 283 20.1% 8.5% .301 3.58 3.31 86 80
Will Smith 39.7 172 27.9% 11.0% .307 3.18 3.08 77 75
Ty Blach 153.0 672 12.4% 6.1% .293 4.59 4.48 111 109
Cory Gearrin 56.3 246 22.4% 10.6% .295 3.67 3.80 89 92
Chris Stratton 127.3 571 17.7% 9.5% .302 4.66 4.62 112 112
Sam Dyson 63.0 277 17.3% 9.0% .296 4.00 3.86 96 94
Tyler Beede 103.7 466 15.7% 8.8% .302 4.69 4.71 113 115
Kraig Sitton 58.7 257 14.0% 7.0% .297 4.14 4.06 100 99
Tyler Rogers 71.3 321 13.7% 10.0% .297 4.16 4.27 100 104
Tyler Herb 136.7 619 15.8% 9.9% .301 4.87 4.86 117 118
Tyler Cyr 54.3 245 22.4% 12.7% .305 4.14 4.15 100 101
Matt Reynolds 33.3 145 19.3% 7.6% .297 4.05 4.03 98 98
Cory Taylor 119.0 544 16.2% 11.0% .302 4.84 4.90 117 119
Julian Fernandez 53.3 244 16.8% 13.1% .297 4.22 4.32 102 105
Kyle Crick 57.3 263 23.2% 16.0% .294 4.24 4.19 102 102
Pierce Johnson 64.0 291 25.1% 13.7% .303 4.64 4.77 112 116
Albert Suarez 94.0 414 17.9% 7.5% .295 4.88 4.85 118 118
Chase Johnson 80.0 364 16.2% 10.4% .302 4.84 4.92 117 120
Steven Okert 55.3 243 22.2% 9.1% .301 4.39 4.33 106 105
Reyes Moronta 47.0 211 28.0% 13.7% .307 4.40 4.29 106 104
Rodolfo Martinez 36.3 163 15.3% 9.8% .299 4.46 4.26 107 104
Ryan Webb 33.7 150 14.7% 8.7% .297 4.54 4.08 109 99
Bryan Morris 38.0 173 17.3% 11.0% .299 4.74 4.79 114 116
Sam Coonrod 105.0 483 16.6% 11.6% .300 5.06 5.11 122 124
Roberto Gomez 93.3 426 15.5% 10.1% .303 5.01 4.93 121 120
Collin Balester 41.7 188 18.1% 10.1% .299 4.97 4.91 120 119
Carlos Alvarado 52.3 237 22.4% 11.4% .308 4.82 4.78 116 116
Casey Kelly 94.0 426 15.5% 9.2% .302 5.17 5.06 125 123
Joan Gregorio 86.0 393 20.4% 11.7% .301 5.23 5.12 126 125
Josh Osich 52.0 237 19.8% 12.2% .296 5.02 4.83 121 117
Jose Valdez 59.0 269 20.8% 12.3% .298 5.03 5.02 121 122
Sam Wolff 58.0 267 21.0% 12.7% .301 5.43 5.33 131 130
Ryan Halstead 47.0 206 18.9% 5.8% .303 5.17 5.22 125 127
Dusten Knight 69.7 315 21.0% 10.8% .302 5.17 5.14 124 125
Seth Rosin 41.3 186 17.7% 8.1% .299 5.66 5.55 136 135
Vic Black 38.0 193 16.6% 21.2% .295 6.39 6.50 154 158
Jordan Johnson 88.0 410 15.4% 11.0% .300 5.83 5.94 140 144
Matt Cain 106.3 485 14.4% 8.0% .302 5.76 5.54 139 135
Dan Slania 118.0 542 16.6% 10.0% .304 5.64 5.58 136 136

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner 166.3 9.14 1.84 1.24 112 2.8 John Candelaria
Johnny Cueto 174.0 8.02 2.48 1.03 107 2.7 Bob Forsch
Jeff Samardzija 177.3 8.27 1.78 1.12 104 2.4 Matt Morris
Mark Melancon 50.0 8.64 1.62 0.54 144 1.1 Carl Willis
Hunter Strickland 60.3 8.65 3.13 0.75 118 0.9 Greg Minton
Matt Gage 139.3 5.62 2.65 0.90 89 0.9 Jeff Johnson
Andrew Suarez 143.3 7.03 2.45 1.32 87 0.8 Bobby Livingston
D.J. Snelten 69.3 7.40 3.63 0.52 111 0.8 Darold Knowles
Derek Law 65.3 7.85 3.31 0.55 109 0.7 Todd Williams
Will Smith 39.7 10.89 4.31 0.68 122 0.6 Hector Mercado
Ty Blach 153.0 4.88 2.41 1.06 85 0.6 Jerry Augustine
Cory Gearrin 56.3 8.79 4.15 0.80 106 0.5 Jim Hughes
Chris Stratton 127.3 7.14 3.82 1.13 83 0.4 Sean White
Sam Dyson 63.0 6.86 3.57 0.71 97 0.4 Bruce Dal Canton
Tyler Beede 103.7 6.34 3.56 1.13 83 0.3 Jake Joseph
Kraig Sitton 58.7 5.52 2.76 0.77 94 0.2 Dave Tomlin
Tyler Rogers 71.3 5.55 4.04 0.63 93 0.2 Charlie Williams
Tyler Herb 136.7 6.45 4.02 1.12 81 0.2 Mike Hansen
Tyler Cyr 54.3 9.11 5.13 0.83 94 0.2 Anthony Chavez
Matt Reynolds 33.3 7.56 2.97 1.08 96 0.1 Jim Crowell
Cory Taylor 119.0 6.66 4.54 1.06 80 0.1 Rick Berg
Julian Fernandez 53.3 6.92 5.40 0.51 92 0.1 Hal Reniff
Kyle Crick 57.3 9.58 6.59 0.63 92 0.1 Clay Bryant
Pierce Johnson 64.0 10.27 5.63 1.27 84 0.1 Mike MacDougal
Albert Suarez 94.0 7.09 2.97 1.53 81 0.1 Scott Mitchell
Chase Johnson 80.0 6.64 4.28 1.13 80 0.1 Mark Calvert
Steven Okert 55.3 8.78 3.58 1.30 89 0.0 Ray Beasley
Reyes Moronta 47.0 11.30 5.55 1.15 88 0.0 Rafael Pimentel
Rodolfo Martinez 36.3 6.19 3.96 0.74 87 0.0 Felix Rodriguez
Ryan Webb 33.7 5.88 3.48 0.80 87 0.0 Milo Candini
Bryan Morris 38.0 7.11 4.50 1.18 82 -0.1 Bucky Brandon
Sam Coonrod 105.0 6.86 4.80 1.20 77 -0.2 Edwin Morel
Roberto Gomez 93.3 6.36 4.15 1.16 78 -0.2 Timothy Smith
Collin Balester 41.7 7.34 4.10 1.30 78 -0.2 Mike Sullivan
Carlos Alvarado 52.3 9.11 4.64 1.38 81 -0.3 Kenny Marrero
Casey Kelly 94.0 6.32 3.73 1.34 75 -0.3 John Webb
Joan Gregorio 86.0 8.37 4.81 1.47 74 -0.3 Daron Kirkreit
Josh Osich 52.0 8.13 5.02 1.21 77 -0.4 Tom Doyle
Jose Valdez 59.0 8.54 5.03 1.37 78 -0.4 Mike James
Sam Wolff 58.0 8.69 5.28 1.55 73 -0.4 Mumba Rivera
Ryan Halstead 47.0 7.47 2.30 1.91 75 -0.4 Brian Woods
Dusten Knight 69.7 8.53 4.39 1.55 75 -0.5 Bill Pulsipher
Seth Rosin 41.3 7.19 3.27 1.96 70 -0.6 Ron Rightnowar
Vic Black 38.0 7.58 9.71 1.18 61 -0.9 Dick Selma
Jordan Johnson 88.0 6.44 4.60 1.74 67 -0.9 Jared Jensen
Matt Cain 106.3 5.92 3.30 1.78 68 -1.0 R.A. Dickey
Dan Slania 118.0 6.86 4.12 1.68 69 -1.0 David Walters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Shauncore
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Shauncore

I look forward to the Mariners signing Alen Hanson for $40M+ in his age 32 season coming off a career year, only to get Mariner’d again

lindseyjones5445
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lindseyjones5445