2018 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
When the Mariners took Kyle Seager (638 PA, 4.4 zWAR) in the third round of the 2009 draft, one could have been excused for assuming that the club had acquired him largely to play the role of Dustin Ackley’s Friend. While both players had served as starters on three consecutive College World Series teams at North Carolina, it was Ackley who was considered the real prospect, going second overall to Seattle in the same draft. Indeed, Seager was ranked by Baseball America just 30th among Mariners prospects during that next offseason — a reflection of industry opinion. Eight-plus years later, however, Ackley has become a journeyman, while Seager has become, if not the face of the franchise, then at least its metronome.

Complementing Seager on the current iteration of the Mariners is Robinson Cano (614, 2.9) and a collection largely of average talent. Indeed, ZiPS calls for five hitters — Nelson Cruz (574, 2.2), Dee Gordon (663, 2.3), Mitch Haniger (517, 2.1), Jean Segura (634, 2.1), and Mike Zunino (474, 2.1) — to produce a WAR figure within a half-win of 2.0 on either side. Recent acquisition and prospective first baseman Ryon Healy (619, -0.1) represents the weak link of the starting lineup according to Dan Szymborski’s computer.

Pitchers
Reached for comment regarding the projections below, newest FanGraphs employee and Mariners fan/prisoner Meg Rowley responded with an emoji that, out of deference to the more sensitive of this site’s readers, won’t be reproduced here. Of the pitchers specifically, she writes, “[T]his… staff is the saddest bunch of ‘Wait, him?’s plus James Paxton (134.1 IP, 2.9 zWAR) I’ve done seen.” Rowley’s point forces one to confront the reality of present-day Felix Hernandez (124.0, 1.4), proving once again that reality is best kept at arm’s length.

The bullpen, meanwhile, is quite strong relative to the rotation. Edwin Diaz (69.0 IP, 77 ERA-, 1.6) will close games, but James Pazos (53.2, 84, 0.7), David Phelps (57.2, 85, 0.8), and Nick Vincent (60.1, 85, 0.8) are all well equipped to handle high-leverage innings. Meanwhile, if the forecast assessed to Juan Nicasio (84.1, 94, 0.9) appears pessimistic on a per-inning basis, note that ZiPS calls for him to make five starts. His rates, presumably, would skew more impressive were he projected exclusively as a reliever.

Bench/Prospects
After recording a 116 wRC+ in 77 April plate appearances, Taylor Motter (461 PA, 1.2 zWAR) was markedly less productive over the remainder of the 2017 season, ultimately posting a negative WAR. ZiPS suggests he’s a capable depth piece, however. Rule 5 selection Mike Ford (496, 1.1), meanwhile, receives the top projection of the Mariners’ rookie-eligible types. Named both the player and pitcher of the year for the Ivy League in 2013, Ford was drafted away from the Yankees.

Of the pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below, Nick Rumbelow (46.0 IP, 84 ERA-, 0.6 zWAR) and Tony Zych (47.2, 81, 0.8) earn the top forecasts, giving the club enviable depth in the bullpen.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Mariners, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Kyle Seager L 30 3B 638 77 155 33 2 28 96 3 3
Robinson Cano L 35 2B 614 74 159 29 1 20 84 2 2
Dee Gordon L 30 CF 663 86 177 18 8 3 33 53 16
Nelson Cruz R 37 RF 574 73 131 21 0 31 96 1 1
Mike Zunino R 27 C 474 53 92 19 0 26 70 1 1
Jean Segura R 28 SS 634 80 161 26 4 13 52 25 9
Mitch Haniger R 27 RF 517 64 116 23 3 20 63 7 4
Jarrod Dyson L 33 CF 354 46 79 10 5 3 26 27 6
Taylor Motter R 28 SS 461 54 102 21 1 14 53 17 5
Mike Ford L 25 1B 496 62 106 21 1 16 60 1 0
Dan Vogelbach L 25 1B 547 64 119 22 1 17 64 2 1
Carlos Ruiz R 39 C 161 14 31 6 0 2 11 2 0
Ben Gamel L 26 LF 609 69 140 27 6 12 61 8 4
Mike Marjama R 28 C 366 37 83 19 2 10 43 2 3
Joey Wong L 30 SS 424 37 75 12 1 2 22 1 1
David Freitas R 29 C 301 30 65 15 0 5 26 1 0
Zach Vincej R 27 SS 432 41 94 16 2 4 33 5 5
Andrew Romine B 32 CF 294 35 63 10 1 3 20 7 3
Daniel Muno B 29 3B 335 36 63 11 1 6 27 7 6
Donnie Walton L 24 SS 312 33 63 11 1 6 26 7 5
Andrew Aplin L 27 RF 374 39 69 10 2 5 28 12 6
John Andreoli R 28 CF 497 57 88 15 4 11 40 25 8
Tuffy Gosewisch R 34 C 297 24 54 12 0 5 23 1 0
Braden Bishop R 24 CF 524 50 106 16 2 3 31 12 4
Gordon Beckham R 31 2B 356 35 72 16 0 8 35 2 1
Guillermo Heredia R 27 LF 462 48 100 16 0 6 31 2 5
Ryon Healy R 26 1B 619 66 149 27 1 22 75 0 1
Danny Valencia R 33 1B 458 51 103 18 2 14 57 2 2
Tyler Marlette R 25 C 402 39 81 17 2 10 43 2 2
Kirk Nieuwenhuis L 30 RF 305 32 50 12 1 9 32 5 3
Ian Miller L 26 CF 549 51 117 14 4 2 32 31 6
Kyle Lewis R 22 CF 237 25 47 7 1 7 25 3 1
Luis Liberato L 22 CF 510 51 93 15 7 12 46 7 8
Nelson Ward L 25 2B 423 38 74 12 3 5 27 11 6
Matt Hague R 32 1B 519 52 113 22 0 10 47 5 2
Dario Pizzano L 27 LF 428 43 94 19 3 8 43 1 1
Cam Perkins R 27 CF 423 43 90 19 2 8 43 4 3
Chuck Taylor B 24 LF 516 52 101 17 3 7 39 7 4
Kyle Waldrop L 26 RF 496 47 104 21 1 10 46 4 4
Eric Filia L 25 RF 531 51 119 19 3 6 40 7 6
Ryan Casteel R 27 1B 403 38 82 17 1 10 40 1 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Kyle Seager 638 8.8% 16.6% .212 .288 .271 .342 .483 .347 120
Robinson Cano 614 7.2% 13.8% .162 .302 .283 .339 .445 .332 110
Dee Gordon 663 3.9% 14.2% .069 .327 .283 .315 .352 .290 81
Nelson Cruz 574 9.4% 23.2% .226 .288 .259 .338 .485 .346 119
Mike Zunino 474 7.6% 34.0% .229 .276 .217 .294 .447 .315 98
Jean Segura 634 5.0% 15.0% .124 .306 .273 .317 .397 .307 93
Mitch Haniger 517 7.7% 23.4% .193 .294 .251 .320 .444 .325 105
Jarrod Dyson 354 6.8% 14.7% .092 .289 .250 .313 .342 .288 80
Taylor Motter 461 7.4% 20.0% .156 .278 .244 .302 .400 .301 89
Mike Ford 496 11.9% 18.8% .165 .277 .247 .339 .412 .324 105
Dan Vogelbach 547 11.2% 22.5% .156 .297 .248 .333 .404 .319 101
Carlos Ruiz 161 9.9% 22.4% .086 .284 .221 .319 .307 .284 77
Ben Gamel 609 6.9% 22.3% .134 .308 .250 .303 .384 .296 85
Mike Marjama 366 4.1% 19.9% .155 .279 .242 .282 .397 .290 81
Joey Wong 424 9.0% 22.2% .053 .260 .200 .279 .253 .244 50
David Freitas 301 6.6% 18.9% .109 .279 .236 .293 .345 .280 74
Zach Vincej 432 6.3% 19.0% .081 .290 .239 .293 .320 .269 67
Andrew Romine 294 6.1% 22.1% .078 .297 .234 .289 .312 .266 65
Daniel Muno 335 10.7% 27.8% .105 .291 .214 .305 .320 .279 74
Donnie Walton 312 7.1% 21.5% .108 .265 .220 .279 .328 .265 64
Andrew Aplin 374 11.0% 23.3% .089 .271 .212 .302 .301 .270 68
John Andreoli 497 11.1% 32.6% .130 .294 .204 .296 .333 .278 73
Tuffy Gosewisch 297 5.7% 24.2% .099 .250 .199 .255 .298 .244 50
Braden Bishop 524 6.5% 20.8% .061 .282 .223 .284 .284 .254 57
Gordon Beckham 356 5.6% 18.5% .122 .248 .220 .270 .341 .264 64
Guillermo Heredia 462 6.9% 15.2% .082 .276 .242 .311 .324 .281 75
Ryon Healy 619 4.0% 23.3% .162 .299 .254 .286 .416 .298 87
Danny Valencia 458 7.4% 23.8% .153 .298 .246 .303 .400 .302 89
Tyler Marlette 402 5.5% 28.1% .135 .278 .215 .261 .350 .264 64
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 305 11.5% 36.7% .155 .281 .189 .286 .343 .276 72
Ian Miller 549 4.9% 20.6% .055 .289 .229 .273 .284 .246 52
Kyle Lewis 237 6.3% 29.5% .138 .280 .216 .270 .353 .270 67
Luis Liberato 510 6.5% 31.6% .139 .275 .200 .253 .339 .255 57
Nelson Ward 423 8.0% 32.2% .087 .286 .195 .265 .282 .244 50
Matt Hague 519 7.7% 17.0% .111 .275 .241 .306 .352 .288 80
Dario Pizzano 428 6.5% 14.3% .125 .264 .240 .297 .366 .286 78
Cam Perkins 423 5.9% 19.9% .121 .274 .231 .285 .352 .276 72
Chuck Taylor 516 8.3% 23.3% .095 .276 .218 .289 .313 .266 65
Kyle Waldrop 496 5.4% 25.2% .115 .285 .226 .272 .341 .264 64
Eric Filia 531 7.7% 10.5% .089 .267 .247 .309 .336 .282 76
Ryan Casteel 403 5.0% 28.8% .129 .281 .216 .256 .346 .259 60

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Kyle Seager 638 6.1 126 3 4.4 Aubrey Huff
Robinson Cano 614 5.6 116 -2 2.9 Miguel Tejada
Dee Gordon 663 4.6 85 8 2.3 Mickey Rivers
Nelson Cruz 574 6.0 125 -6 2.2 Fred McGriff
Mike Zunino 474 4.5 102 -3 2.1 John Buck
Jean Segura 634 4.8 97 -4 2.1 Julio Franco
Mitch Haniger 517 5.1 109 5 2.1 Craig Monroe
Jarrod Dyson 354 4.4 82 12 2.0 Dave Roberts
Taylor Motter 461 4.5 93 -4 1.2 Bobby Crosby
Mike Ford 496 5.0 107 -1 1.1 Larry Sutton
Dan Vogelbach 547 4.8 104 -2 0.8 Javier Brito
Carlos Ruiz 161 3.5 76 1 0.6 Chad Kreuter
Ben Gamel 609 4.2 89 2 0.6 LaVel Freeman
Mike Marjama 366 3.9 86 -7 0.4 Eli Whiteside
Joey Wong 424 2.4 50 10 0.4 Steve Jeltz
David Freitas 301 3.6 77 -4 0.3 Dave Toth
Zach Vincej 432 3.2 71 1 0.2 Johnnie LeMaster
Andrew Romine 294 3.2 67 2 0.2 Tony Scott
Daniel Muno 335 3.2 75 0 0.1 George Strickland
Donnie Walton 312 3.1 68 1 0.1 Kevin Perkins
Andrew Aplin 374 3.1 69 6 0.1 Brian Finley
John Andreoli 497 3.6 75 -4 0.1 Fred Lewis
Tuffy Gosewisch 297 2.6 53 2 0.1 Chad Moeller
Braden Bishop 524 2.9 59 6 0.0 Melvin Mora
Gordon Beckham 356 3.2 68 2 0.0 Stu Cole
Guillermo Heredia 462 3.4 77 3 -0.1 Eric Nielsen
Ryon Healy 619 4.3 92 -2 -0.1 Ken Harvey
Danny Valencia 458 4.3 93 -3 -0.1 Walt Dropo
Tyler Marlette 402 3.1 68 -5 -0.2 Luis Pujols
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 305 3.2 74 1 -0.3 Doug Frobel
Ian Miller 549 3.1 56 4 -0.3 Alex Sanchez
Kyle Lewis 237 3.3 71 -4 -0.4 Torii Hunter
Luis Liberato 510 2.7 63 4 -0.4 Rick Asadoorian
Nelson Ward 423 2.5 52 5 -0.4 Steve Phillips
Matt Hague 519 3.9 83 -1 -0.5 Luis Lopez
Dario Pizzano 428 3.8 83 -4 -0.5 Tim Leiper
Cam Perkins 423 3.5 76 -7 -0.5 Greg Guin
Chuck Taylor 516 3.1 68 3 -0.7 Kurt Bierek
Kyle Waldrop 496 3.1 69 -1 -1.1 Pedro Valdes
Eric Filia 531 3.6 80 -8 -1.2 Tim Leiper
Ryan Casteel 403 3.0 65 -1 -1.4 Nilson Robledo

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
James Paxton L 29 25 25 134.3 144 37 12 121 51 48
Mike Leake R 30 28 28 165.0 118 30 20 180 82 77
Edwin Diaz R 24 69 0 69.0 93 26 8 53 27 25
Felix Hernandez R 32 22 22 124.0 110 43 17 119 62 58
Erasmo Ramirez R 28 46 13 113.0 85 29 15 111 55 51
Hisashi Iwakuma R 37 22 22 126.7 94 31 19 134 65 61
Juan Nicasio R 31 59 5 84.3 91 31 10 79 40 37
Andrew Albers L 32 29 21 132.0 103 33 20 146 72 67
Nick Vincent R 31 64 0 60.3 55 15 6 58 26 24
David Phelps R 31 56 0 57.7 56 22 5 53 25 23
Tony Zych R 27 47 0 47.7 49 17 4 42 19 18
James Pazos L 27 53 0 53.7 62 24 5 46 22 21
Nick Rumbelow R 26 34 0 46.0 50 16 5 41 19 18
Aaron West R 28 41 3 71.7 44 17 7 79 35 33
Max Povse R 24 26 18 105.3 79 31 15 115 58 54
Marco Gonzales L 26 23 21 113.0 90 33 17 125 63 59
Shawn Armstrong R 27 53 0 55.3 63 29 5 46 25 23
Marc Rzepczynski L 32 63 0 35.0 33 20 2 32 15 14
Jonathan Aro R 27 30 1 54.0 50 18 6 53 26 24
Cody Martin R 28 28 15 99.0 89 35 15 102 55 51
Ariel Miranda L 29 28 26 139.7 118 52 25 139 80 75
Ryan Garton R 28 51 1 63.7 61 31 6 60 31 29
Dan Altavilla R 25 63 0 70.3 72 31 9 65 34 32
Andrew Moore R 24 31 28 156.3 112 32 29 172 91 85
Jeanmar Gomez R 30 47 0 53.0 37 15 6 58 26 24
Dylan Unsworth R 25 21 21 114.3 69 23 19 132 67 63
Ryan Weber R 27 30 9 81.3 48 13 12 93 45 42
Ryne Harper R 29 41 0 54.3 55 23 6 52 27 25
Christian Bergman R 30 27 20 121.3 78 28 19 140 71 66
Casey Lawrence R 30 32 17 126.0 84 35 18 146 74 69
Mike Morin R 27 51 1 59.7 49 16 8 62 31 29
Rob Whalen R 24 18 17 92.3 72 38 14 97 55 51
Dean Kiekhefer L 29 50 0 50.0 35 14 6 54 26 24
Sam Moll L 26 57 0 61.3 49 23 7 65 32 30
Shae Simmons R 27 28 0 24.0 23 14 2 21 12 11
Nick Hagadone L 32 37 0 35.3 37 18 5 33 19 18
Ryan Kelly R 30 34 0 33.3 32 11 5 33 18 17
Peter Tago R 25 35 0 47.0 52 35 5 42 26 24
Evan Scribner R 32 32 0 34.0 38 4 9 35 19 18
Darin Gillies R 25 41 0 57.7 44 29 7 60 33 31
Tyler Knigge R 29 36 0 48.0 35 25 6 51 29 27
Ashur Tolliver L 30 37 0 46.7 41 34 5 46 29 27
Justin de Fratus R 30 28 11 84.3 44 23 16 102 56 52
Tyler Cloyd R 31 21 18 92.3 62 26 21 110 63 59
Ernesto Frieri R 32 41 0 43.3 53 27 10 42 30 28
Chase De Jong R 24 26 24 134.0 89 48 27 155 91 85
Kyle Hunter L 29 31 5 68.3 40 25 14 83 49 46
Blake Perry R 26 33 8 75.0 66 53 19 86 63 59

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
James Paxton 134.3 561 25.7% 6.6% .298 3.22 3.00 76 70
Mike Leake 165.0 705 16.7% 4.3% .301 4.20 3.92 100 91
Edwin Diaz 69.0 286 32.5% 9.1% .288 3.26 3.14 77 73
Felix Hernandez 124.0 534 20.6% 8.1% .286 4.21 4.38 100 102
Erasmo Ramirez 113.0 479 17.7% 6.1% .277 4.06 4.20 96 98
Hisashi Iwakuma 126.7 545 17.2% 5.7% .289 4.33 4.38 103 102
Juan Nicasio 84.3 363 25.1% 8.5% .303 3.95 3.64 94 85
Andrew Albers 132.0 575 17.9% 5.7% .305 4.57 4.45 108 103
Nick Vincent 60.3 254 21.7% 5.9% .294 3.58 3.22 85 75
David Phelps 57.7 248 22.6% 8.9% .294 3.59 3.54 85 82
Tony Zych 47.7 202 24.3% 8.4% .297 3.40 3.45 81 80
James Pazos 53.7 231 26.8% 10.4% .299 3.52 3.57 84 83
Nick Rumbelow 46.0 195 25.6% 8.2% .295 3.52 3.57 84 83
Aaron West 71.7 311 14.1% 5.5% .301 4.14 3.99 98 93
Max Povse 105.3 462 17.1% 6.7% .302 4.61 4.56 110 106
Marco Gonzales 113.0 497 18.1% 6.6% .307 4.70 4.50 112 105
Shawn Armstrong 55.3 241 26.1% 12.0% .289 3.74 3.68 89 86
Marc Rzepczynski 35.0 157 21.0% 12.7% .300 3.60 3.47 85 81
Jonathan Aro 54.0 233 21.5% 7.7% .301 4.00 3.92 95 91
Cody Martin 99.0 434 20.5% 8.1% .300 4.64 4.54 110 106
Ariel Miranda 139.7 610 19.3% 8.5% .278 4.83 5.02 115 117
Ryan Garton 63.7 282 21.6% 11.0% .298 4.10 4.02 97 93
Dan Altavilla 70.3 307 23.5% 10.1% .292 4.09 4.14 97 96
Andrew Moore 156.3 673 16.6% 4.8% .290 4.89 4.88 116 114
Jeanmar Gomez 53.0 232 15.9% 6.5% .302 4.08 4.03 97 94
Dylan Unsworth 114.3 498 13.9% 4.6% .297 4.96 4.87 118 113
Ryan Weber 81.3 350 13.7% 3.7% .297 4.65 4.49 110 104
Ryne Harper 54.3 238 23.1% 9.7% .305 4.14 3.95 98 92
Christian Bergman 121.3 532 14.7% 5.3% .300 4.90 4.67 116 109
Casey Lawrence 126.0 559 15.0% 6.3% .308 4.93 4.63 117 108
Mike Morin 59.7 257 19.1% 6.2% .298 4.37 4.11 104 96
Rob Whalen 92.3 412 17.5% 9.2% .295 4.97 5.03 118 117
Dean Kiekhefer 50.0 218 16.1% 6.4% .300 4.32 4.16 103 97
Sam Moll 61.3 272 18.0% 8.5% .305 4.40 4.32 105 100
Shae Simmons 24.0 107 21.5% 13.1% .284 4.12 4.20 98 98
Nick Hagadone 35.3 157 23.6% 11.5% .292 4.58 4.43 109 103
Ryan Kelly 33.3 144 22.2% 7.6% .298 4.59 4.27 109 99
Peter Tago 47.0 218 23.9% 16.1% .301 4.60 4.75 109 110
Evan Scribner 34.0 141 27.0% 2.8% .292 4.76 4.80 113 112
Darin Gillies 57.7 262 16.8% 11.1% .298 4.84 4.93 115 114
Tyler Knigge 48.0 220 15.9% 11.4% .298 5.06 5.07 120 118
Ashur Tolliver 46.7 220 18.6% 15.5% .299 5.21 5.17 124 120
Justin de Fratus 84.3 378 11.6% 6.1% .297 5.55 5.54 132 129
Tyler Cloyd 92.3 413 15.0% 6.3% .298 5.75 5.78 137 134
Ernesto Frieri 43.3 199 26.6% 13.6% .299 5.82 5.58 138 130
Chase De Jong 134.0 605 14.7% 7.9% .294 5.71 5.66 136 131
Kyle Hunter 68.3 313 12.8% 8.0% .300 6.06 5.88 144 137
Blake Perry 75.0 364 18.1% 14.6% .303 7.08 6.97 168 162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
James Paxton 134.3 9.65 2.48 0.80 126 2.9 Andy Pettitte
Mike Leake 165.0 6.44 1.64 1.09 95 1.8 Jim Barr
Edwin Diaz 69.0 12.13 3.39 1.04 124 1.6 Jose Valverde
Felix Hernandez 124.0 7.98 3.12 1.23 96 1.4 Mike LaCoss
Erasmo Ramirez 113.0 6.77 2.31 1.19 99 1.3 Mark Knudson
Hisashi Iwakuma 126.7 6.68 2.20 1.35 93 1.3 Dick Donovan
Juan Nicasio 84.3 9.71 3.31 1.07 101 0.9 Bryce Florie
Andrew Albers 132.0 7.02 2.25 1.36 88 0.9 Mark Hendrickson
Nick Vincent 60.3 8.20 2.24 0.90 111 0.8 Terry Leach
David Phelps 57.7 8.74 3.43 0.78 112 0.8 Jim Hughes
Tony Zych 47.7 9.25 3.21 0.76 119 0.8 Ryan Speier
James Pazos 53.7 10.40 4.02 0.84 115 0.7 Randy Choate
Nick Rumbelow 46.0 9.78 3.13 0.98 115 0.6 Derek Wallace
Aaron West 71.7 5.53 2.13 0.88 97 0.6 Bill Fischer
Max Povse 105.3 6.75 2.65 1.28 86 0.6 Bobby Keppel
Marco Gonzales 113.0 7.17 2.63 1.35 85 0.5 Alfred Mathes
Shawn Armstrong 55.3 10.25 4.72 0.81 108 0.5 Brian Wilson
Marc Rzepczynski 35.0 8.49 5.14 0.51 112 0.5 Bill Kennedy
Jonathan Aro 54.0 8.33 3.00 1.00 101 0.5 Mark Brown
Cody Martin 99.0 8.09 3.18 1.36 86 0.5 Nate Bump
Ariel Miranda 139.7 7.60 3.35 1.61 82 0.4 Chris Welsh
Ryan Garton 63.7 8.62 4.38 0.85 98 0.4 Ruddy Lugo
Dan Altavilla 70.3 9.21 3.97 1.15 99 0.4 David Aardsma
Andrew Moore 156.3 6.45 1.84 1.67 81 0.4 Paul Quantrill
Jeanmar Gomez 53.0 6.28 2.55 1.02 98 0.3 John Boozer
Dylan Unsworth 114.3 5.43 1.81 1.50 81 0.3 Dave Eiland
Ryan Weber 81.3 5.31 1.44 1.33 86 0.3 Bob Purkey
Ryne Harper 54.3 9.11 3.81 0.99 96 0.3 Gabriel Dehoyos
Christian Bergman 121.3 5.79 2.08 1.41 81 0.3 Dick Bosman
Casey Lawrence 126.0 6.00 2.50 1.29 82 0.3 Lary Sorensen
Mike Morin 59.7 7.39 2.41 1.21 92 0.2 Tim McNab
Rob Whalen 92.3 7.02 3.70 1.36 80 0.2 Don Fowler
Dean Kiekhefer 50.0 6.30 2.52 1.08 92 0.2 Mike Venafro
Sam Moll 61.3 7.19 3.38 1.03 90 0.1 Tanyon Sturtze
Shae Simmons 24.0 8.63 5.25 0.75 97 0.1 Mark Acre
Nick Hagadone 35.3 9.42 4.58 1.27 88 0.0 Pedro Borbon
Ryan Kelly 33.3 8.64 2.97 1.35 87 0.0 Bryan Corey
Peter Tago 47.0 9.96 6.70 0.96 87 0.0 Jeff Smith
Evan Scribner 34.0 10.06 1.06 2.38 85 0.0 Jose Bautista
Darin Gillies 57.7 6.87 4.53 1.09 82 -0.2 Joe Hudson
Tyler Knigge 48.0 6.56 4.69 1.13 79 -0.3 Ed Sprague
Ashur Tolliver 46.7 7.91 6.56 0.96 78 -0.3 Jim Brewer
Justin de Fratus 84.3 4.70 2.45 1.71 72 -0.5 Justin Miller
Tyler Cloyd 92.3 6.04 2.53 2.05 70 -0.6 Allen Davis
Ernesto Frieri 43.3 11.01 5.61 2.08 69 -0.6 Bob Long
Chase De Jong 134.0 5.98 3.22 1.81 71 -0.8 Josh Garrett
Kyle Hunter 68.3 5.27 3.29 1.84 67 -0.9 Corey Hamman
Blake Perry 75.0 7.92 6.36 2.28 56 -1.9 Mumba Rivera

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Seattle Mariners by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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MHanny17
Member
MHanny17

Seems pretty bullish on the Bullpen but I personally think the offense will be better than they’ve projected with Haniger, Cano, Cruz, and Healy likely outperforming projections. It also seems a little light on Paxton with only 2.9 zWAR

Stovokor
Member
Member
Stovokor

3 WAR in 2/3 of a season is light?

Seattle badly needs a GM who knows what he is doing. Why they haven’t poached from TB, HOU, LAD, NYY, etc is a mystery. The farm system looks barren, too, with ingenious moves like trading Gohara for a 4th OF, O’Neill for a swingman/AAAA SP, etc. But we don’t need to go over all the talent the M’s have traded away in the last 20 yrs.

MHanny17
Member
MHanny17

Yes, 3 war in 2/3 of a season is light because last year in 2/3 of a season Paxton produced 4.6 WAR

JJ Keller
Member

And 3.5 WAR in 2/3 of a season in 2016.

TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks

I own Paxton in a ZIPS league, and I am pretty happy with his 126 ERA+ projection. It’s better than any starter I had last year, and my team won the championship.

TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks

The point wasn’t about my team – the point was that 126 ERA+ is really good. 18 teams projections have been released so far and only Kershaw, Severino, Syndergaard, and Darvish (barely) have starting pitcher ERA+ projections better than Paxton. At that rate, Paxton will be a top 10 starter in the league, which is hard to complain about.

Joser
Member
Joser

See, that’s the version of your comment you should have started with. Unless you’re on the Rotographs side of the site, any comment that begins with “I own…” is going to get this reaction, and justifiably so.

Barnard
Member
Barnard

Thought the Segura projection was conservative as well