2018 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Cardinals hitters ranked eighth in the majors by WAR this past season, and they did it in the precise way one expects Cardinals hitters to do these things: on the back of a 29-year-old center fielder who entered the season with fewer than 400 plate appearances. Also key were the contributions of a shortstop who’d played mostly third base in the minors and a first baseman who hit just 29 homers in nearly 1,500 minor-league plate appearances. Tommy Pham (532 PA, 3.3 zWAR), Paul DeJong (602, 2.1), and Matt Carpenter (573, 3.0) are all under contract for 2018 and all profile as average or better players.

The newest member of the club also appears to be the best. St. Louis was among the beneficiaries of Miami’s attempt to liquidate every possible asset, acquiring outfielder Marcell Ozuna (644, 3.7) for a modest package of prospects. ZiPS calls for him to produce what amounts to an even split between his 2016 and -17 seasons.

As for weaknesses, there are few among the club’s position-player core. One possible concern is shortstop defense (DeJong is projected for -6 runs there), although that’s also been a possible concern for the last three or seven years.

Pitchers
Only 15 pitchers reached the 200-inning threshold in 2017 — this after 38 pitchers accomplished the feat a decade earlier. That Carlos Martinez (201.0 IP, 4.4 zWAR) is projected for 200-plus innings is a testament to his durability. For this and other reasons, he’s the ace of the staff.

Beyond Martinez, the rotation is populated by a collection of strong complementary pieces, all projected for something like average production, a group that includes Miles Mikolas (148.1, 2.0), Michael Wacha (156.2, 2.2), Adam Wainwright (127.2, 1.6), and Luke Weaver (133.1, 2.1). Right-hander Alex Reyes (84.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR) is absent from the depth-chart image below, but that’s only because he’s likely to be absent from the Opening Day rotation, as well. He’s forecast to produce wins at an above-average rate once he returns.

In the bullpen, Tyler Lyons (69.2 IP, 86 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) appears poised to earn save chances. That said, multiple other pitchers — Matt Bowman (61.0, 84, 0.9), Brett Cecil (58.0, 77, 1.1), Luke Gregerson (56.2, 79, 0.9), Samuel Tuivailala (45.0, 80, 0.7) — are forecast to record better adjusted ERA marks. All appear sufficient for high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
Despite having recorded at least 350 plate appearances in each of the last three season, Randal Grichuk (518 PA, 1.9 zWAR) appears headed for a less substantial role following the acquisition of Marcell Ozuna. That more a testament to the depth of outfield options than Grichuk’s own ability. Jose Martinez (399, 1.1) is another Cardinal who lacks a clear path to playing time after earning more than 300 plate appearances in 2017.

In reality, the club is throttled by quality depth. Harrison Bader (539, 1.3), Carson Kelly (385, 1.7), Andrew Knizner (458, 1.3), Tyler O’Neill (570, 1.8), Luke Voit (491, 1.4): they all profile as useful players. Projections for newcomers Yairo Munoz (488, 0.4) and Max Schrock (529, 0.1) are available in the post for Oakland.

The pitching staff features less quantity in terms of depth but perhaps just as much quality, thanks to the presence of Jack Flaherty (151.2 IP, 2.0 zWAR), whom Dan Szymborski’s computer classified as a league-average starter already.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cardinals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Marcell Ozuna R 27 LF 644 81 164 30 3 30 103 1 3
Tommy Pham R 30 CF 532 78 122 22 4 20 68 18 6
Matt Carpenter L 32 1B 573 84 123 30 3 19 68 2 3
Jedd Gyorko R 29 3B 480 52 114 18 1 22 75 3 2
Yadier Molina R 35 C 505 46 127 24 1 10 63 6 3
Kolten Wong L 27 2B 489 62 117 22 4 11 52 12 3
Paul DeJong R 24 SS 602 69 142 29 2 26 81 3 3
Dexter Fowler B 32 LF 519 72 116 23 6 14 52 10 4
Randal Grichuk R 26 LF 518 68 119 29 4 27 76 5 3
Tyler O’Neill R 23 LF 570 72 130 26 3 28 87 10 2
Carson Kelly R 23 C 385 43 85 17 0 8 39 0 2
Luke Voit R 27 1B 491 58 115 22 3 16 63 1 1
Andrew Knizner R 23 C 458 54 106 19 2 8 62 1 3
Harrison Bader R 24 CF 539 65 119 19 3 18 60 13 10
Jose Martinez R 29 LF 399 49 101 19 2 11 48 6 1
Greg Garcia L 28 3B 372 38 77 14 2 3 26 4 2
Wilfredo Tovar R 26 SS 430 42 99 18 2 4 34 18 9
Breyvic Valera B 26 2B 495 52 125 17 4 4 40 8 8
Tommy Edman B 23 SS 484 50 109 20 4 7 46 11 5
Jacob Wilson R 27 3B 464 50 94 20 1 13 49 2 3
Randy Arozarena R 23 LF 506 56 107 26 5 10 51 13 8
John Nogowski R 25 1B 325 34 78 14 0 3 25 2 0
Alex Mejia R 27 SS 471 46 109 21 1 5 40 3 2
Rangel Ravelo R 26 1B 383 45 90 22 2 9 43 2 2
Eric Fryer R 32 C 172 18 34 6 1 1 11 1 1
Patrick Wisdom R 26 3B 469 49 90 20 2 12 55 4 2
Jose Adolis Garcia R 25 RF 506 58 110 23 3 14 59 11 10
Oscar Mercado R 23 CF 541 55 115 21 4 6 40 29 23
Magneuris Sierra L 22 CF 558 54 130 22 6 3 42 21 14
Alberto Rosario R 31 C 189 15 41 7 0 0 12 2 0
Edmundo Sosa R 22 SS 373 33 82 13 2 3 25 4 2
Darren Seferina L 24 2B 476 46 97 16 7 5 37 16 10
Jordan Schafer L 31 CF 100 10 20 4 1 0 6 5 3
Bruce Caldwell L 26 3B 435 43 76 14 2 9 39 3 1
Dickie Joe Thon R 26 2B 337 29 60 11 2 5 25 5 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Marcell Ozuna 644 7.8% 21.6% .214 .317 .278 .335 .492 .349 116
Tommy Pham 532 11.1% 24.1% .195 .322 .263 .353 .458 .348 115
Matt Carpenter 573 15.2% 20.8% .197 .307 .261 .380 .458 .360 123
Jedd Gyorko 480 8.5% 21.3% .199 .294 .263 .327 .462 .335 106
Yadier Molina 505 5.5% 12.9% .120 .295 .273 .315 .393 .303 85
Kolten Wong 489 8.0% 15.5% .145 .302 .270 .342 .415 .324 99
Paul DeJong 602 5.5% 27.1% .199 .312 .254 .303 .453 .320 97
Dexter Fowler 519 12.7% 21.4% .174 .317 .261 .361 .435 .343 112
Randal Grichuk 518 5.8% 29.3% .245 .302 .247 .295 .492 .328 102
Tyler O’Neill 570 7.4% 27.7% .225 .303 .252 .311 .477 .331 104
Carson Kelly 385 8.1% 16.4% .118 .277 .244 .313 .362 .296 81
Luke Voit 491 7.9% 21.8% .172 .307 .260 .328 .432 .326 101
Andrew Knizner 458 5.7% 14.8% .111 .278 .249 .297 .360 .285 73
Harrison Bader 539 5.9% 27.8% .161 .308 .241 .299 .402 .301 84
Jose Martinez 399 8.3% 17.3% .155 .317 .280 .339 .435 .331 104
Greg Garcia 372 11.0% 21.5% .085 .312 .241 .340 .326 .298 82
Wilfredo Tovar 430 5.3% 14.9% .085 .285 .248 .293 .333 .274 67
Breyvic Valera 495 6.9% 8.7% .082 .295 .276 .325 .358 .298 82
Tommy Edman 484 6.2% 17.4% .110 .285 .245 .295 .355 .281 71
Jacob Wilson 464 7.5% 25.0% .146 .277 .227 .294 .373 .288 76
Randy Arozarena 506 6.7% 21.5% .145 .285 .235 .302 .380 .296 81
John Nogowski 325 7.4% 13.8% .079 .302 .265 .327 .344 .296 81
Alex Mejia 471 4.9% 17.0% .087 .293 .249 .291 .336 .273 66
Rangel Ravelo 383 7.3% 18.3% .153 .300 .260 .322 .413 .315 93
Eric Fryer 172 9.3% 22.7% .072 .289 .222 .298 .294 .266 61
Patrick Wisdom 469 6.6% 32.0% .139 .287 .209 .267 .348 .266 62
Jose Adolis Garcia 506 5.7% 23.9% .153 .288 .238 .290 .391 .290 77
Oscar Mercado 541 5.9% 23.3% .095 .296 .232 .286 .327 .267 62
Magneuris Sierra 558 4.7% 19.5% .082 .307 .249 .286 .331 .269 63
Alberto Rosario 189 4.2% 17.5% .040 .281 .230 .266 .270 .238 43
Edmundo Sosa 373 4.6% 19.3% .075 .285 .234 .270 .309 .253 53
Darren Seferina 476 7.8% 26.7% .103 .303 .223 .285 .326 .268 62
Jordan Schafer 100 8.0% 23.0% .067 .299 .222 .286 .289 .257 55
Bruce Caldwell 435 9.9% 36.1% .117 .303 .198 .282 .315 .263 59
Dickie Joe Thon 337 5.0% 35.9% .096 .293 .192 .242 .288 .233 40

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Marcell Ozuna 644 6.1 119 6 3.7 Matt Holliday
Tommy Pham 532 6.1 116 -1 3.3 Larry Hisle
Matt Carpenter 573 6.3 124 2 3.0 Norm Siebern
Jedd Gyorko 480 5.5 109 4 2.9 Steve Buechele
Yadier Molina 505 4.6 89 6 2.6 Brian Harper
Kolten Wong 489 5.4 103 2 2.3 Orlando Hudson
Paul DeJong 602 4.9 100 -6 2.1 Brook Jacoby
Dexter Fowler 519 5.8 113 -2 2.1 Phil Bradley
Randal Grichuk 518 5.2 107 3 1.9 Jerald Clark
Tyler O’Neill 570 5.5 108 -2 1.8 Victor Diaz
Carson Kelly 385 3.9 81 5 1.7 Nelson Santovenia
Luke Voit 491 5.2 102 3 1.4 Paul McAnulty
Andrew Knizner 458 3.7 76 3 1.3 Matt Treanor
Harrison Bader 539 4.1 86 1 1.3 Wil Culmer
Jose Martinez 399 5.7 107 -4 1.1 Barry Bonnell
Greg Garcia 372 3.9 81 2 1.0 Russ Johnson
Wilfredo Tovar 430 3.5 68 6 0.9 Dave Myers
Breyvic Valera 495 4.1 84 1 0.9 Omar Vizquel
Tommy Edman 484 3.8 74 2 0.9 Felix Molina
Jacob Wilson 464 3.7 78 1 0.6 John Hattig
Randy Arozarena 506 4.0 82 5 0.6 Tod Ronson
John Nogowski 325 4.2 81 5 0.5 Phil Avlas
Alex Mejia 471 3.5 69 1 0.5 Al Pedrique
Rangel Ravelo 383 4.8 96 0 0.4 Dave Sax
Eric Fryer 172 3.0 61 1 0.2 Bob Swift
Patrick Wisdom 469 3.2 64 4 0.2 Travis Metcalf
Jose Adolis Garcia 506 3.8 81 3 0.1 Chad Mottola
Oscar Mercado 541 2.9 65 3 -0.3 Winston Ficklin
Magneuris Sierra 558 3.3 66 0 -0.3 Leo Garcia
Alberto Rosario 189 2.6 45 -1 -0.3 Charlie Greene
Edmundo Sosa 373 2.9 56 0 -0.4 Fred Manrique
Darren Seferina 476 3.1 64 -1 -0.4 Henry Mateo
Jordan Schafer 100 2.8 56 -4 -0.5 Thurman Tucker
Bruce Caldwell 435 3.0 61 -3 -0.6 Adam Morrissey
Dickie Joe Thon 337 2.2 42 -1 -1.3 Tim Holland

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Carlos Martinez R 26 32 32 201.0 204 68 20 181 80 75
Lance Lynn R 31 31 31 169.7 145 69 20 165 77 72
Michael Wacha R 26 28 28 156.7 142 51 18 156 75 70
Luke Weaver R 24 26 26 133.7 121 34 15 132 60 56
Jack Flaherty R 22 30 29 151.7 140 49 20 152 73 68
Miles Mikolas R 29 26 26 148.3 127 49 19 150 73 68
Adam Wainwright R 36 22 22 127.7 99 39 13 132 62 58
Alex Reyes R 23 18 14 84.0 93 46 8 74 39 36
Brett Cecil L 31 66 0 58.0 62 16 5 53 22 21
Seung Hwan Oh R 35 60 0 58.3 63 14 7 53 24 22
Juan Nicasio R 31 59 5 84.0 91 33 10 78 40 37
Matthew Bowman R 27 69 0 61.0 49 20 4 58 26 24
Luke Gregerson R 34 59 0 56.7 63 17 7 49 22 21
Tyler Lyons L 30 53 0 69.7 77 19 10 62 30 28
Trevor Rosenthal R 28 49 0 45.7 69 26 4 36 18 17
Sam Tuivailala R 25 43 0 45.0 53 21 4 38 18 17
Austin Gomber L 24 25 25 126.0 109 57 18 128 71 66
Dakota Hudson R 23 24 24 139.3 78 56 14 152 79 74
John Gant R 25 26 20 113.7 101 43 18 118 63 59
Zach Duke L 35 55 0 41.3 42 17 3 36 17 16
John Brebbia R 28 59 0 71.3 69 18 11 69 33 31
Josh Lucas R 27 50 0 63.0 59 20 8 61 29 27
Kevin Herget R 27 39 6 74.7 66 28 10 75 39 36
Ryan Sherriff L 28 55 0 61.3 50 22 6 62 29 27
Sean Gilmartin L 28 27 16 87.7 68 29 13 94 49 46
Miguel Socolovich R 31 48 0 56.3 47 18 6 56 27 25
Arturo Reyes R 26 24 13 84.7 52 32 10 94 48 45
Ryan Helsley R 23 23 22 113.0 94 53 16 116 66 62
Rowan Wick R 25 39 0 42.0 40 27 2 38 20 19
Daniel Poncedeleon R 26 19 19 96.3 71 48 13 102 57 53
Derian Gonzalez R 23 21 18 81.7 62 49 9 85 48 45
Jonathan Broxton R 34 47 0 41.3 39 19 5 40 21 20
Mike Mayers R 26 30 18 114.7 88 42 19 127 68 64
Landon Beck R 25 51 0 54.7 48 32 7 56 32 30
Connor Jones R 23 24 21 104.3 70 51 16 117 66 62
Trey Nielsen R 26 25 11 77.7 49 36 14 91 54 50
Andrew Morales R 25 24 12 72.0 56 32 16 83 50 47
Corey Baker R 28 29 12 80.3 59 38 17 93 57 53
Josh Zeid R 31 30 11 86.0 73 50 18 95 61 57
Pedro Echemendia R 27 39 3 65.7 36 24 14 81 47 44
Tyler Bray R 26 43 0 60.3 50 40 11 66 43 40

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Carlos Martinez 201.0 852 23.9% 8.0% .292 3.36 3.53 79 82
Lance Lynn 169.7 743 19.5% 9.3% .289 3.82 4.25 90 99
Michael Wacha 156.7 677 21.0% 7.5% .299 4.02 3.81 95 89
Luke Weaver 133.7 567 21.3% 6.0% .300 3.77 3.68 89 86
Jack Flaherty 151.7 656 21.3% 7.5% .301 4.04 4.11 96 96
Miles Mikolas 148.3 644 19.7% 7.6% .297 4.13 4.24 98 99
Adam Wainwright 127.7 554 17.9% 7.0% .298 4.09 3.87 97 90
Alex Reyes 84.0 372 25.0% 12.4% .297 3.86 3.90 91 91
Brett Cecil 58.0 243 25.5% 6.6% .302 3.26 2.92 77 68
Seung Hwan Oh 58.3 242 26.0% 5.8% .295 3.39 3.12 80 73
Juan Nicasio 84.0 363 25.1% 9.1% .301 3.96 3.72 94 87
Matthew Bowman 61.0 261 18.8% 7.7% .292 3.54 3.44 84 80
Luke Gregerson 56.7 236 26.7% 7.2% .284 3.34 3.33 79 78
Tyler Lyons 69.7 290 26.5% 6.5% .289 3.62 3.76 86 88
Trevor Rosenthal 45.7 199 34.7% 13.1% .330 3.35 3.18 79 74
Sam Tuivailala 45.0 194 27.3% 10.8% .298 3.40 3.36 80 78
Austin Gomber 126.0 563 19.4% 10.1% .296 4.71 4.81 111 112
Dakota Hudson 139.3 626 12.5% 8.9% .294 4.78 4.70 113 110
John Gant 113.7 502 20.1% 8.6% .299 4.67 4.68 110 109
Zach Duke 41.3 177 23.7% 9.6% .292 3.48 3.30 82 77
John Brebbia 71.3 301 22.9% 6.0% .293 3.91 4.11 92 96
Josh Lucas 63.0 270 21.9% 7.4% .296 3.86 3.98 91 93
Kevin Herget 74.7 327 20.2% 8.6% .297 4.34 4.34 103 101
Ryan Sherriff 61.3 268 18.7% 8.2% .300 3.96 3.92 94 91
Sean Gilmartin 87.7 386 17.6% 7.5% .298 4.72 4.63 112 108
Miguel Socolovich 56.3 243 19.3% 7.4% .294 3.99 3.89 94 91
Arturo Reyes 84.7 380 13.7% 8.4% .298 4.78 4.70 113 110
Ryan Helsley 113.0 508 18.5% 10.4% .296 4.94 4.93 117 115
Rowan Wick 42.0 191 20.9% 14.1% .300 4.07 3.94 96 92
Daniel Poncedeleon 96.3 439 16.2% 10.9% .296 4.95 5.12 117 119
Derian Gonzalez 81.7 379 16.4% 12.9% .299 4.96 5.02 117 117
Jonathan Broxton 41.3 183 21.3% 10.4% .294 4.35 4.15 103 97
Mike Mayers 114.7 513 17.2% 8.2% .302 5.02 5.01 119 117
Landon Beck 54.7 252 19.0% 12.7% .302 4.94 4.88 117 114
Connor Jones 104.3 481 14.6% 10.6% .300 5.35 5.42 126 126
Trey Nielsen 77.7 360 13.6% 10.0% .301 5.79 5.78 137 135
Andrew Morales 72.0 331 16.9% 9.7% .300 5.87 5.99 139 140
Corey Baker 80.3 372 15.9% 10.2% .301 5.94 5.93 140 138
Josh Zeid 86.0 403 18.1% 12.4% .300 5.97 6.03 141 141
Pedro Echemendia 65.7 302 11.9% 7.9% .299 6.03 6.02 143 140
Tyler Bray 60.3 287 17.4% 13.9% .302 5.97 5.91 141 138

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Carlos Martinez 201.0 9.13 3.04 0.90 121 4.4 Freddy Garcia
Lance Lynn 169.7 7.69 3.66 1.06 106 2.8 Monte Pearson
Michael Wacha 156.7 8.16 2.93 1.03 101 2.2 Mike Scott
Luke Weaver 133.7 8.15 2.29 1.01 108 2.1 Don Sutton
Jack Flaherty 151.7 8.31 2.91 1.19 101 2.0 Danny Cox
Miles Mikolas 148.3 7.71 2.97 1.15 100 2.0 Jake Westbrook
Adam Wainwright 127.7 6.98 2.75 0.92 99 1.6 Camilo Pascual
Alex Reyes 84.0 9.96 4.93 0.86 105 1.4 Sam McDowell
Brett Cecil 58.0 9.62 2.48 0.78 126 1.1 Gary Lucas
Seung Hwan Oh 58.3 9.73 2.16 1.08 121 1.1 Ted Wilks
Juan Nicasio 84.0 9.75 3.54 1.07 102 1.0 Bryce Florie
Matthew Bowman 61.0 7.23 2.95 0.59 115 0.9 Wes Stock
Luke Gregerson 56.7 10.00 2.70 1.11 123 0.9 Jeff Reardon
Tyler Lyons 69.7 9.94 2.45 1.29 112 0.9 Gabe White
Trevor Rosenthal 45.7 13.59 5.12 0.79 121 0.9 Tom Henke
Sam Tuivailala 45.0 10.60 4.20 0.80 119 0.7 Mark Littell
Austin Gomber 126.0 7.79 4.07 1.29 86 0.7 Mike Halperin
Dakota Hudson 139.3 5.04 3.62 0.90 85 0.6 Jake Joseph
John Gant 113.7 7.99 3.40 1.42 87 0.6 Jackie Davidson
Zach Duke 41.3 9.15 3.70 0.65 117 0.6 Luis Arroyo
John Brebbia 71.3 8.71 2.27 1.39 104 0.6 Jeff Tam
Josh Lucas 63.0 8.43 2.86 1.14 105 0.6 Mark Williamson
Kevin Herget 74.7 7.95 3.37 1.20 94 0.5 Julian Tavarez
Ryan Sherriff 61.3 7.34 3.23 0.88 102 0.5 Dave Von Ohlen
Sean Gilmartin 87.7 6.98 2.98 1.33 87 0.5 Norm Montoya
Miguel Socolovich 56.3 7.51 2.88 0.96 102 0.4 Jon Perlman
Arturo Reyes 84.7 5.53 3.40 1.06 85 0.3 Bill Swift
Ryan Helsley 113.0 7.49 4.22 1.27 82 0.3 Randy Hennis
Rowan Wick 42.0 8.57 5.79 0.43 100 0.3 Clay Bryant
Daniel Poncedeleon 96.3 6.64 4.49 1.21 82 0.2 Jaime Cocanower
Derian Gonzalez 81.7 6.83 5.40 0.99 82 0.2 Preston Hanna
Jonathan Broxton 41.3 8.50 4.14 1.09 93 0.1 Darrin Babineaux
Mike Mayers 114.7 6.90 3.30 1.49 81 0.1 Josias Manzanillo
Landon Beck 54.7 7.90 5.27 1.15 82 -0.2 Rick Greene
Connor Jones 104.3 6.04 4.40 1.38 76 -0.3 Justin Sturge
Trey Nielsen 77.7 5.68 4.17 1.62 70 -0.7 Wes Wilkerson
Andrew Morales 72.0 7.00 4.00 2.00 69 -0.7 Kevin Vent
Corey Baker 80.3 6.61 4.26 1.91 68 -0.9 Wes Wilkerson
Josh Zeid 86.0 7.64 5.23 1.88 69 -0.9 Ken Ray
Pedro Echemendia 65.7 4.93 3.29 1.92 67 -1.0 Steven Rowe
Tyler Bray 60.3 7.46 5.97 1.64 68 -1.1 Matt Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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wagfg7
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wagfg7

Sierra is listed though was dealt in the Ozuna trade

christinamaxwell965
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christinamaxwell965
jamesryu
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Shame on you