2018 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
Most major-league clubs probably feature multiple players whom one could reasonably designate as the Face of the Franchise. Until recently, that was not the case with the Tampa Bay Rays. Basically ever since his debut in 2008, Evan Longoria has been synonymous with the club — due in no small part, one assumes, to the concurrence of his best years with the best years of the team. Traded to the Giants on December 20, he’s expected to produce roughly three wins for San Francisco.

How the club will attempt to replace those wins remains uncertain at the moment. Christian Arroyo (409 PA, 0.6 zWAR), Matt Duffy (444, 1.3), Daniel Robertson (406, 1.0), Ryan Schimpf (459, 0.5), and Joey Wendle (563, 1.0) are all candidates for the second- and third-base nexus in Tampa Bay, each flawed in his way. I’ve included Duffy, Robertson, and Wendle on the depth-chart image below simply because they receive the top projections from Dan Szymborski’s computer.

The author noted elsewhere recently that Byron Buxton recorded the highest WAR (3.5) of any player in 2017 who also produced a below-average batting line. By virtue of his 2015 season, however, Kevin Kiermaier (474, 3.3) has the top mark by that same criteria of any player since 1997. He’s projected to produce a precisely league-average batting line in 2018 while also saving 14 runs in center field.

Pitchers
One could probably make a case for Kiermaier as the Face of the Franchise, but the most likely recipient of that designation in the absence of Longoria is Chris Archer (195.2 IP, 4.2 zWAR). Archer possesses objectively excellent stuff — stuff that has translated into excellent fielding-independent numbers, as well. Notably, however, Archer’s run-prevention numbers haven’t been as excellent.

Consider:

Chris Archer, ERA vs. FIP, 2015-17
Season IP ERA FIP Diff
2015 212.0 3.23 2.90 -0.33
2016 201.1 4.02 3.81 -0.21
2017 201.0 4.07 3.40 -0.67
Average 204.2 3.77 3.37 -0.40

ZiPS calls for Archer to suffer a smaller gap (-0.17) between the two figures in 2018. Behind him is a collection of promising young talent, including Jake Faria (147.1, 2.0), Jake Odorizzi (151.1, 1.8), and Blake Snell (175.1, 2.9), all of whom profile as average or better starters. Brent Honeywell (133.1, 2.0) could be included in that list, as well, although it appears as though Nathan Eovaldi (96.2, 1.0) is more likely to earn an Opening Day rotation spot.

The bullpen features a number of competent, largely interchangeable pieces. Alex Colome (66.2 IP, 82 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) is technically the closer, but Dan Jennings (58.1, 80, 0.9) is actually projected to recorded a slightly lower park-adjusted ERA. Neither Andrew Kittredge (77.1, 87, 0.9) nor Chaz Roe (50.0, 85, 0.6) linger far behind on that account, either.

Bench/Prospects
Jake Bauers (582 PA, 1.6 zWAR) has never recorded a plate appearance above Triple-A. Nevertheless, he receives the top projection among hitters omitted from the depth-chart image below. Willy Adames (590, 1.2) is another player who has yet to escape the minors; however, he features the second-best projection of the players omitted from the depth chart.

As noted above, Brent Honeywell appears to represent not merely a useful possible replacement for Tampa Bay’s rotation, but an improvement over at least one or two of its members. Matt Andriese (121.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR) maybe isn’t an improvement, but is at least useful.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Kevin Kiermaier L 28 CF 474 57 109 20 6 15 44 16 5
Steven Souza R 29 RF 542 70 115 20 2 24 68 13 6
Logan Morrison L 30 1B 516 62 115 21 2 25 72 4 2
Wilson Ramos R 30 C 410 39 102 15 0 17 62 0 0
Corey Dickerson L 29 LF 572 69 140 32 4 24 64 3 3
Jake Bauers L 22 LF 582 69 127 26 2 15 61 14 4
Lucas Duda L 32 1B 462 51 91 21 0 25 66 0 1
Adeiny Hechavarria R 29 SS 480 49 120 17 6 6 40 6 2
Brad Miller L 28 2B 481 56 101 21 4 16 59 7 4
Matt M. Duffy R 27 SS 444 50 105 17 3 10 47 10 3
Willy Adames R 22 SS 590 66 127 25 4 12 55 10 5
Daniel Robertson R 24 SS 406 41 82 14 3 7 34 2 2
Joey Wendle L 28 2B 563 59 128 28 4 12 56 9 3
Mallex Smith L 25 CF 501 55 110 16 7 5 36 37 13
Denard Span L 34 CF 523 65 127 22 4 10 40 13 6
Colby Rasmus L 31 LF 347 39 68 13 1 16 48 3 0
Christian Arroyo R 23 3B 409 40 95 21 1 8 42 3 2
Ryan Schimpf L 30 3B 459 57 77 16 2 22 67 1 1
Nick Ciuffo L 23 C 401 35 82 18 1 6 31 1 2
Justin Williams L 22 RF 443 50 109 19 2 13 55 4 3
Trevor Plouffe R 32 3B 432 46 90 18 1 12 44 1 1
Jesus Sucre R 30 C 184 17 42 6 0 3 20 1 0
Jason Coats R 28 RF 416 44 94 20 1 11 46 4 3
Danny Espinosa B 31 2B 408 43 68 12 1 12 42 7 4
Johnny Field R 26 CF 498 53 109 27 3 12 52 11 6
Michael McKenry R 33 C 238 24 41 9 1 5 19 1 2
Kean Wong L 23 2B 507 47 115 20 1 6 40 14 10
Jake Cronenworth L 24 SS 521 52 104 17 3 4 35 9 8
Brandon Lowe L 23 2B 478 51 100 22 3 9 44 6 5
Brandon Snyder R 31 LF 414 46 78 17 1 14 44 3 2
Justin O’Conner R 26 C 364 33 70 17 1 9 36 3 0
Joe McCarthy L 24 1B 504 54 101 20 4 7 42 14 5
Shane Peterson L 30 LF 402 43 89 17 3 10 43 8 1
Rickie Weeks R 35 LF 148 17 27 6 0 4 14 2 1
Peter Bourjos R 31 LF 274 31 54 10 3 5 19 6 5
Micah Johnson L 27 CF 407 41 82 13 3 6 30 17 7
Cade Gotta R 26 RF 469 44 97 20 2 6 38 23 8
Dalton Kelly L 23 1B 535 55 107 23 3 9 45 10 10
Jake Hager R 25 2B 430 37 92 15 2 4 30 4 5
Grant Kay R 25 3B 487 47 101 23 3 7 41 9 6
Lucius Fox B 20 SS 472 43 85 10 3 4 26 21 13

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Kevin Kiermaier 474 7.2% 21.7% .179 .299 .253 .314 .433 .319 100
Steven Souza 542 11.3% 29.9% .203 .316 .244 .336 .447 .336 112
Logan Morrison 516 11.2% 22.5% .222 .288 .255 .345 .477 .347 120
Wilson Ramos 410 5.4% 17.1% .172 .283 .266 .305 .439 .314 97
Corey Dickerson 572 5.9% 23.8% .210 .309 .262 .308 .472 .325 104
Jake Bauers 582 9.8% 20.8% .145 .292 .246 .324 .391 .310 94
Lucas Duda 462 11.9% 30.1% .242 .280 .229 .331 .471 .337 113
Adeiny Hechavarria 480 4.8% 15.8% .104 .307 .267 .303 .371 .289 80
Brad Miller 481 11.4% 25.6% .184 .299 .241 .329 .425 .323 103
Matt M. Duffy 444 6.1% 18.7% .130 .299 .257 .308 .387 .300 87
Willy Adames 590 8.8% 24.6% .130 .305 .239 .309 .369 .296 84
Daniel Robertson 406 9.1% 24.6% .115 .296 .230 .314 .345 .290 81
Joey Wendle 563 3.7% 21.3% .136 .289 .241 .278 .377 .279 73
Mallex Smith 501 7.8% 23.0% .099 .313 .243 .304 .342 .283 76
Denard Span 523 7.5% 12.8% .126 .291 .266 .324 .392 .310 94
Colby Rasmus 347 8.9% 33.1% .201 .283 .217 .288 .419 .299 86
Christian Arroyo 409 5.1% 19.6% .124 .295 .250 .294 .374 .285 77
Ryan Schimpf 459 10.9% 36.8% .216 .259 .193 .290 .409 .298 86
Nick Ciuffo 401 6.0% 26.7% .101 .288 .219 .264 .320 .254 56
Justin Williams 443 5.2% 21.2% .149 .309 .263 .302 .412 .304 90
Trevor Plouffe 432 8.1% 24.3% .143 .281 .230 .294 .372 .288 79
Jesus Sucre 184 3.3% 17.4% .087 .283 .244 .276 .331 .264 63
Jason Coats 416 5.0% 23.1% .143 .295 .244 .290 .387 .290 80
Danny Espinosa 408 8.1% 34.8% .139 .269 .189 .274 .329 .261 60
Johnny Field 498 4.8% 25.1% .149 .295 .236 .280 .385 .285 77
Michael McKenry 238 12.2% 30.3% .126 .277 .199 .303 .325 .279 73
Kean Wong 507 5.7% 18.9% .085 .295 .245 .291 .330 .272 68
Jake Cronenworth 521 8.8% 23.4% .075 .291 .222 .296 .297 .266 64
Brandon Lowe 478 7.7% 24.3% .127 .293 .230 .296 .357 .284 76
Brandon Snyder 414 7.7% 33.6% .164 .287 .209 .280 .373 .281 74
Justin O’Conner 364 3.6% 34.9% .134 .290 .204 .240 .338 .248 51
Joe McCarthy 504 10.5% 22.0% .111 .288 .229 .319 .340 .293 82
Shane Peterson 402 5.5% 25.6% .143 .303 .240 .286 .383 .287 78
Rickie Weeks 148 9.5% 35.1% .137 .307 .206 .297 .344 .284 76
Peter Bourjos 274 5.8% 27.0% .124 .283 .215 .269 .339 .263 62
Micah Johnson 407 7.4% 26.5% .100 .296 .222 .281 .322 .265 63
Cade Gotta 469 6.4% 22.4% .097 .279 .224 .274 .320 .259 59
Dalton Kelly 535 8.0% 27.7% .118 .304 .225 .299 .342 .282 75
Jake Hager 430 4.2% 21.4% .077 .284 .228 .265 .305 .248 52
Grant Kay 487 5.5% 24.2% .111 .285 .224 .273 .335 .264 63
Lucius Fox 472 7.2% 31.6% .065 .291 .198 .265 .263 .239 45

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Kevin Kiermaier 474 5.1 105 14 3.3 Ken Landreaux
Steven Souza 542 5.4 116 3 2.4 Mark Whiten
Logan Morrison 516 6.0 126 -1 2.0 Carlos Pena
Wilson Ramos 410 4.9 104 -2 1.8 Bengie Molina
Corey Dickerson 572 5.3 113 2 1.8 Ben Broussard
Jake Bauers 582 4.7 98 5 1.6 Craig Landis
Lucas Duda 462 5.4 120 1 1.5 Paul Sorrento
Adeiny Hechavarria 480 4.2 87 4 1.4 Jose Vizcaino
Brad Miller 481 4.9 108 -6 1.4 Brian Myrow
Matt M. Duffy 444 4.4 92 -1 1.3 Rafael Ramirez
Willy Adames 590 4.0 88 -4 1.2 Jay Bell
Daniel Robertson 406 3.7 83 2 1.0 Ed Jurak
Joey Wendle 563 3.8 80 6 1.0 Jose Nieves
Mallex Smith 501 4.0 80 4 1.0 Milt Cuyler
Denard Span 523 4.7 98 -9 0.7 Jim Eisenreich
Colby Rasmus 347 4.3 93 4 0.7 John-Ford Griffin
Christian Arroyo 409 3.9 84 2 0.6 Aurelio Rodriguez
Ryan Schimpf 459 3.9 91 -4 0.5 Willie Greene
Nick Ciuffo 401 2.8 62 6 0.5 Doug Lindsey
Justin Williams 443 4.5 96 -1 0.4 Jeff Abbott
Trevor Plouffe 432 3.8 84 -2 0.4 Jason Wood
Jesus Sucre 184 3.3 68 1 0.3 Omir Santos
Jason Coats 416 4.0 86 2 0.2 Mike Vento
Danny Espinosa 408 3.0 67 5 0.1 Trace Coquillette
Johnny Field 498 3.8 83 -4 0.1 Lyle Mouton
Michael McKenry 238 3.2 75 -4 0.0 Steve Yeager
Kean Wong 507 3.3 73 0 -0.1 John Skorochocki
Jake Cronenworth 521 2.9 66 -1 -0.1 Justin Sellers
Brandon Lowe 478 3.6 81 -5 -0.2 Glenn Hubbard
Brandon Snyder 414 3.5 80 1 -0.2 Kurt Airoso
Justin O’Conner 364 2.8 58 -1 -0.2 Stine Poole
Joe McCarthy 504 3.9 84 0 -0.2 Willie Upshaw
Shane Peterson 402 4.1 84 -3 -0.3 Alexis Gomez
Rickie Weeks 148 3.5 78 -3 -0.4 Tom Wilson
Peter Bourjos 274 3.0 68 3 -0.4 Jarvis Brown
Micah Johnson 407 3.2 68 -2 -0.4 Scott Lusader
Cade Gotta 469 3.2 65 6 -0.4 Jason Lariviere
Dalton Kelly 535 3.4 78 4 -0.6 Nick Markakis
Jake Hager 430 2.7 58 4 -0.6 Felix Molina
Grant Kay 487 3.1 68 -4 -0.8 Tony Darden
Lucius Fox 472 2.2 48 -1 -1.2 Scott Bream

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Chris Archer R 29 32 32 195.7 230 59 20 171 76 71
Blake Snell L 25 33 33 175.3 186 79 17 157 77 72
Alex Cobb R 30 26 26 160.0 119 41 18 160 72 67
Jacob Faria R 24 28 27 147.3 159 61 19 131 68 64
Brent Honeywell R 23 26 26 133.3 132 35 18 130 61 57
Jake Odorizzi R 28 29 29 151.3 140 52 23 140 74 69
Matt Andriese R 28 26 22 121.0 109 27 18 123 59 55
Yonny Chirinos R 24 28 25 149.0 104 24 23 162 77 72
Alex Colome R 29 66 0 66.7 62 20 7 63 28 26
Ryan Yarbrough L 26 25 25 134.7 109 37 21 140 72 67
Nathan Eovaldi R 28 18 16 96.7 72 31 11 102 49 46
Andrew Kittredge R 28 49 2 77.3 73 25 9 73 34 32
Dan Jennings L 31 68 0 58.3 48 26 3 55 24 22
Chih-Wei Hu R 24 33 12 95.3 73 26 14 100 49 46
Diego Castillo R 24 50 0 70.0 68 23 8 66 31 29
Austin Pruitt R 28 32 18 122.3 98 27 20 134 66 62
Jose De Leon R 25 17 16 76.7 88 29 14 72 40 37
Chaz Roe R 31 44 0 50.0 57 21 5 43 21 20
Sergio Romo R 35 53 0 48.7 53 13 8 44 22 21
Kyle Bird L 25 52 0 70.3 55 30 7 71 35 33
Colton Murray R 28 47 0 61.3 62 25 8 58 30 28
Xavier Cedeno L 31 47 0 34.7 36 13 4 32 16 15
Jose Alvarado L 23 55 0 58.7 64 44 4 49 29 27
Ryne Stanek R 26 57 0 61.0 70 32 9 55 31 29
Vidal Nuno L 30 48 0 57.3 53 17 10 58 29 27
Adam Kolarek L 29 50 0 53.3 45 28 5 52 27 25
Cody Hall R 30 32 0 39.3 39 18 5 38 20 19
Ian Gibaut R 24 47 0 58.3 59 30 8 55 31 29
Ruben Alaniz R 27 45 3 67.3 59 33 9 69 37 35
Edwin Fierro R 24 31 8 80.3 46 24 12 92 47 44
Hunter Wood R 24 29 17 108.3 87 49 17 114 65 61
Jaime Schultz R 27 24 20 94.7 112 62 17 88 58 54
Jonny Venters L 33 20 0 17.3 16 12 1 16 10 9
Logan Verrett R 28 38 10 93.0 69 34 16 100 55 51
Taylor Guerrieri R 25 22 20 102.7 66 38 17 114 63 59
Mike Franco R 26 29 11 74.3 60 49 11 77 47 44
Kyle Winkler R 28 45 0 47.3 40 30 8 50 31 29
Jeff Ames R 27 46 1 59.3 58 43 9 58 39 36
Genesis Cabrera L 21 24 23 113.0 78 61 19 127 76 71
Michael Roth L 28 26 20 112.3 66 40 23 135 78 73
Benton Moss R 25 18 16 90.0 63 30 22 108 65 61
Jose Mujica R 22 25 25 134.0 68 47 27 162 93 87
Greg Harris R 23 27 18 98.3 82 54 21 108 71 66

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Chris Archer 195.7 817 28.2% 7.2% .300 3.27 3.10 77 73
Blake Snell 175.3 762 24.4% 10.4% .294 3.70 3.70 87 87
Alex Cobb 160.0 681 17.5% 6.0% .286 3.77 4.00 88 94
Jacob Faria 147.3 634 25.1% 9.6% .289 3.91 4.08 92 96
Brent Honeywell 133.3 565 23.4% 6.2% .300 3.85 3.88 90 91
Jake Odorizzi 151.3 646 21.7% 8.0% .273 4.10 4.35 96 102
Matt Andriese 121.0 513 21.2% 5.3% .295 4.09 4.01 96 94
Yonny Chirinos 149.0 633 16.4% 3.8% .293 4.35 4.41 102 103
Alex Colome 66.7 283 21.9% 7.1% .293 3.51 3.56 82 83
Ryan Yarbrough 134.7 581 18.8% 6.4% .292 4.48 4.55 105 106
Nathan Eovaldi 96.7 423 17.0% 7.3% .295 4.28 4.11 101 96
Andrew Kittredge 77.3 330 22.1% 7.6% .292 3.72 3.87 87 91
Dan Jennings 58.3 256 18.8% 10.2% .292 3.39 3.36 80 79
Chih-Wei Hu 95.3 412 17.7% 6.3% .293 4.34 4.51 102 106
Diego Castillo 70.0 299 22.7% 7.7% .294 3.73 3.77 88 88
Austin Pruitt 122.3 528 18.6% 5.1% .302 4.56 4.47 107 105
Jose De Leon 76.7 331 26.6% 8.8% .297 4.34 4.53 102 106
Chaz Roe 50.0 214 26.6% 9.8% .295 3.60 3.50 85 82
Sergio Romo 48.7 203 26.1% 6.4% .281 3.88 3.86 91 90
Kyle Bird 70.3 312 17.6% 9.6% .296 4.22 4.30 99 101
Colton Murray 61.3 267 23.2% 9.4% .296 4.11 4.20 96 98
Xavier Cedeno 34.7 149 24.2% 8.7% .295 3.89 3.71 91 87
Jose Alvarado 58.7 269 23.8% 16.4% .292 4.14 4.16 97 97
Ryne Stanek 61.0 270 25.9% 11.9% .295 4.28 4.45 100 104
Vidal Nuno 57.3 247 21.5% 6.9% .291 4.24 4.47 99 105
Adam Kolarek 53.3 240 18.8% 11.7% .297 4.22 4.38 99 102
Cody Hall 39.3 174 22.4% 10.3% .300 4.35 4.28 102 100
Ian Gibaut 58.3 260 22.7% 11.5% .296 4.47 4.61 105 108
Ruben Alaniz 67.3 304 19.4% 10.9% .302 4.68 4.66 110 109
Edwin Fierro 80.3 357 12.9% 6.7% .295 4.93 4.96 116 116
Hunter Wood 108.3 488 17.8% 10.0% .295 5.07 5.11 119 120
Jaime Schultz 94.7 434 25.8% 14.3% .298 5.13 5.22 121 122
Jonny Venters 17.3 80 20.0% 15.0% .300 4.67 4.31 110 101
Logan Verrett 93.0 413 16.7% 8.2% .291 4.94 5.07 116 119
Taylor Guerrieri 102.7 460 14.3% 8.3% .291 5.17 5.31 121 124
Mike Franco 74.3 349 17.2% 14.0% .295 5.33 5.61 125 131
Kyle Winkler 47.3 222 18.0% 13.5% .298 5.51 5.57 129 130
Jeff Ames 59.3 279 20.8% 15.4% .295 5.46 5.50 128 129
Genesis Cabrera 113.0 527 14.8% 11.6% .299 5.65 5.79 133 136
Michael Roth 112.3 512 12.9% 7.8% .297 5.85 5.85 137 137
Benton Moss 90.0 408 15.4% 7.4% .300 6.10 6.10 143 143
Jose Mujica 134.0 611 11.1% 7.7% .293 5.84 6.02 137 141
Greg Harris 98.3 457 17.9% 11.8% .296 6.04 6.10 142 143

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Archer 195.7 10.58 2.71 0.92 125 4.2 A.J. Burnett
Blake Snell 175.3 9.55 4.06 0.87 111 2.9 Al Downing
Alex Cobb 160.0 6.69 2.31 1.01 108 2.5 Aaron Cook
Jacob Faria 147.3 9.71 3.73 1.16 105 2.0 A.J. Burnett
Brent Honeywell 133.3 8.91 2.36 1.22 106 2.0 Ramiro Mendoza
Jake Odorizzi 151.3 8.33 3.09 1.37 100 1.8 Cal Eldred
Matt Andriese 121.0 8.11 2.01 1.34 100 1.4 Travis Driskill
Yonny Chirinos 149.0 6.28 1.45 1.39 94 1.3 Josh Towers
Alex Colome 66.7 8.37 2.70 0.95 116 1.1 Scott Terry
Ryan Yarbrough 134.7 7.28 2.47 1.40 91 1.0 Alfred Mathes
Nathan Eovaldi 96.7 6.70 2.89 1.02 95 1.0 Stephen Whitmyer
Andrew Kittredge 77.3 8.50 2.91 1.05 110 0.9 Mike DeJean
Dan Jennings 58.3 7.41 4.01 0.46 119 0.9 Darold Knowles
Chih-Wei Hu 95.3 6.89 2.45 1.32 94 0.7 Steve Lemke
Diego Castillo 70.0 8.74 2.96 1.03 110 0.7 David Wilhelmi
Austin Pruitt 122.3 7.21 1.99 1.47 90 0.7 Matt Ginter
Jose De Leon 76.7 10.33 3.40 1.64 93 0.6 John Patterson
Chaz Roe 50.0 10.26 3.78 0.90 113 0.6 David Holdridge
Sergio Romo 48.7 9.80 2.40 1.48 104 0.4 Jeff Reardon
Kyle Bird 70.3 7.04 3.84 0.90 97 0.3 Mike Cosgrove
Colton Murray 61.3 9.10 3.67 1.17 98 0.3 Paul Abraham
Xavier Cedeno 34.7 9.35 3.38 1.04 104 0.3 Randy Choate
Jose Alvarado 58.7 9.82 6.75 0.61 97 0.3 Scott Wiggins
Ryne Stanek 61.0 10.33 4.72 1.33 95 0.2 Not That Bob Gibson
Vidal Nuno 57.3 8.32 2.67 1.57 95 0.2 Erasmo Ramirez
Adam Kolarek 53.3 7.59 4.73 0.84 96 0.2 Jim Roland
Cody Hall 39.3 8.92 4.12 1.14 93 0.1 Ryan Henderson
Ian Gibaut 58.3 9.10 4.63 1.23 91 0.1 Anthony Chavez
Ruben Alaniz 67.3 7.89 4.41 1.20 87 0.1 Barry Hertzler
Edwin Fierro 80.3 5.15 2.69 1.34 83 0.0 Matt Goodson
Hunter Wood 108.3 7.23 4.07 1.41 81 0.0 Gerrit Simpson
Jaime Schultz 94.7 10.65 5.89 1.62 80 0.0 Charlie Puleo
Jonny Venters 17.3 8.31 6.23 0.52 86 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Logan Verrett 93.0 6.68 3.29 1.55 82 0.0 Andy Cook
Taylor Guerrieri 102.7 5.79 3.33 1.49 79 0.0 Don Fowler
Mike Franco 74.3 7.26 5.93 1.33 77 -0.3 Brett Merriman
Kyle Winkler 47.3 7.61 5.70 1.52 73 -0.6 Brad Tweedlie
Jeff Ames 59.3 8.80 6.52 1.37 75 -0.6 Jake Robbins
Genesis Cabrera 113.0 6.21 4.86 1.51 71 -0.7 Mike Hinckley
Michael Roth 112.3 5.29 3.20 1.84 70 -0.9 Benj Sampson
Benton Moss 90.0 6.30 3.00 2.20 67 -1.0 Robert Averette
Jose Mujica 134.0 4.57 3.16 1.81 70 -1.1 Junior Herndon
Greg Harris 98.3 7.51 4.94 1.92 67 -1.2 Kerry Burchett

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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si.or.no
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si.or.no

_Not That_ Bob Gibson

vinyldude
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Ha! If ‘not that’ wasn’t there there’d be a server crash in fantasy league everywhere due to so many people picking up Ryne Stanek without knowing how he was going to get in the rotation, never mind dominate.