2018 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
In 2017, six of the Rangers’ position players surpassed the two-win threshold. Only one of that group (Carlos Gomez, specifically) appears likely to play elsewhere next season. In light of that lone departure, one might expect something on the order of five players to record two or more wins in 2018. Dan Szymborski’s computer, however, clearly operates by a different sort of calculus.

Indeed, a brief examination of the tables below reveals that only Adrian Beltre (430 PA, 2.7 zWAR) is forecast by ZiPS to record two-plus wins next year. As for the other four returnees, all are projected to endure some manner of regression: worse numbers on contact for Elvis Andrus (656, 1.9) and Robinson Chirinos (270, 1.3); more strikeouts and fewer extras bases for Joey Gallo (507, 1.7); and what appears to be fewer runs from defense and probably baserunning for Delino DeShields (471, 0.4).

This isn’t the end of the bad news, either: all told, four positions on the rough depth chart below — catcher, second base, center field, and designated hitter — are accompanied by a rounded WAR figure of 0 or 1. A very dreary sort of binary code, is how one might characterize that.

One, desperate for an optimistic note, can find it in Willie Calhoun’s projection (586, 1.9). Part of the return for Yu Darvish, Calhoun lacks a defensive home. What he doesn’t lack, however, is a promising offensive profile. ZiPS calls for markedly above-average contact and power numbers, represented by his 13.1% strikeout rate and .220 isolated-slugging figure, respectively.

Pitchers
As for the rotation, it features sufficient room for a variety of outcomes. Cole Hamels (154.0 IP, 3.2 zWAR) and Martin Perez (168.0, 2.7) represent an entirely acceptable one-two combination at the front. After that pair, however, there’s considerable uncertainty. ZiPS calls for Doug Fister (113.2, 1.3) to preserve some of his gains but also forecasts a somewhat conservative innings total. Matt Bush (56.1, 1.2) and Mike Minor (66.0, 1.2), meanwhile, both (a) are projected here as relievers but (b) might totally enter the season as starters. In the case of minor, in fact, it’s almost certain he will. For those curious about Bush and Minor as starters, I would recommend harassing Szymborski directly, either during his 2pm ET chat later today or on Twitter.

Because the rotation isn’t settled, neither is the bullpen. That said, there’s quite a bit of depth here. Left-hander Alex Claudio (76.1 IP, 70 ERA- 1.9 zWAR) is one of the least probable closers in the majors. He rarely, if ever, breaks 90 mph, throws a changeup that sits at 71, and misses few bats in an era defined by historically high strikeout rates. His ability to avoid the walk and induce weak contact allows him to excel nonetheless. Beyond Claudio, the combination of Jake Diekman (44.0, 80, 0.7) and Keone Kela (45.2, 60, 1.3) also appear well suited to high-leverage innings.

Bench/Prospects
Like Calhoun, Jurickson Profar (459 PA, 1.6 zWAR) is listed at left field in the depth-chart image below. Like Calhoun, however, he’s not confined to that position. He recorded appearances at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and left field during his brief major-league tenure this past season. Beyond Calhoun, first baseman Ronald Guzman (549, 0.4) receives the top projected WAR figure among rookie-eligible players.

Among pitchers, neither Clayton Blackburn (111.1, 1.0) nor Ariel Jurado (139.1, 1.1) has recorded a major-league inning. Both seem like viable back-end options for the rotation, however, as it’s currently constructed. Right-hander Ronald Herrera (131.0, 0.8) was acquired from the Yankees in the latter half of November. He also features something better than replacement-level promise.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Adrian Beltre R 39 3B 430 50 107 19 1 17 68 1 0
Elvis Andrus R 29 SS 656 82 169 35 4 13 71 24 10
Willie Calhoun L 23 LF 586 78 149 26 4 28 93 3 2
Joey Gallo L 24 1B 507 75 92 18 3 34 77 6 1
Nomar Mazara L 23 RF 627 68 154 25 4 25 99 2 2
Jurickson Profar B 25 SS 459 54 104 20 2 9 42 6 2
Rougned Odor L 24 2B 633 86 151 30 5 29 86 14 7
Robinson Chirinos R 34 C 270 33 53 12 1 12 33 1 0
Carlos Gomez R 32 CF 457 54 99 22 1 15 55 15 7
Hanser Alberto R 25 SS 410 43 103 18 2 9 42 6 5
Brett Nicholas L 29 C 414 42 97 19 1 10 43 2 2
Shin-Soo Choo L 35 RF 529 72 116 19 1 17 58 8 3
Delino DeShields R 25 CF 471 72 98 14 2 8 21 33 9
Ronald Guzman L 23 1B 549 65 132 21 4 15 58 3 2
Jared Hoying L 29 CF 477 56 103 23 3 15 53 15 5
Drew Robinson L 26 RF 472 55 90 20 3 18 52 9 6
Will Middlebrooks R 29 3B 376 41 79 14 2 16 50 1 1
A.J. Jimenez R 28 C 226 20 49 12 1 5 22 1 0
Mike Napoli R 36 1B 467 54 85 13 1 23 62 2 2
Phil Gosselin R 29 2B 273 31 69 14 1 4 22 3 2
Ryan Rua R 28 LF 347 41 74 13 1 11 34 5 2
Drew Stubbs R 33 CF 341 39 64 10 2 8 26 9 4
Josh Morgan R 22 SS 520 54 123 19 3 6 42 3 1
Doug Bernier R 38 2B 316 29 63 9 1 5 22 1 2
Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 23 3B 572 54 130 21 3 4 37 14 7
Tyler Smith R 26 SS 443 43 95 16 1 6 34 5 4
Luis La O R 26 2B 532 54 131 18 2 6 41 12 12
Jose Trevino R 25 C 440 44 92 17 1 8 39 1 2
Andy Ibanez R 25 2B 444 44 98 20 3 9 40 7 4
Juan Centeno L 28 C 290 26 70 11 1 3 25 1 1
Jose Cardona R 24 CF 503 52 116 18 2 8 41 14 10
Pete Kozma R 30 SS 345 35 63 14 0 3 23 6 4
Hunter Cole R 25 RF 431 44 90 20 4 11 49 2 2
Jason Martinson R 29 2B 419 42 73 12 2 14 43 6 3
Michael De Leon B 21 SS 476 41 106 19 2 5 37 4 4
Brett Hayes R 34 C 195 15 31 6 0 4 14 0 0
Yanio Perez R 22 1B 539 57 125 20 3 13 51 5 1
Scott Heineman R 25 LF 550 58 112 22 5 9 42 11 9
Luke Tendler L 26 RF 500 51 102 21 2 11 46 2 4
Michael O’Neill R 26 CF 452 43 87 15 3 10 39 16 7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Adrian Beltre 430 8.4% 12.3% .187 .281 .277 .342 .464 .341 108
Elvis Andrus 656 6.3% 13.4% .136 .308 .281 .327 .418 .319 93
Willie Calhoun 586 7.0% 13.1% .220 .278 .277 .330 .497 .347 112
Joey Gallo 507 13.4% 39.4% .291 .290 .212 .325 .503 .348 113
Nomar Mazara 627 8.1% 19.3% .191 .304 .272 .335 .463 .338 106
Jurickson Profar 459 9.2% 14.6% .126 .288 .257 .336 .383 .316 91
Rougned Odor 633 4.6% 22.3% .215 .288 .256 .299 .471 .323 95
Robinson Chirinos 270 8.9% 26.3% .213 .266 .226 .313 .438 .322 95
Carlos Gomez 457 7.0% 27.6% .170 .313 .243 .317 .413 .315 90
Hanser Alberto 410 2.2% 13.7% .126 .287 .264 .285 .390 .288 72
Brett Nicholas 414 4.8% 21.7% .132 .301 .251 .293 .382 .290 73
Shin-Soo Choo 529 11.3% 22.7% .159 .309 .256 .353 .415 .335 104
Delino DeShields 471 10.2% 25.3% .104 .323 .244 .326 .348 .299 79
Ronald Guzman 549 6.9% 18.6% .147 .302 .262 .321 .410 .314 89
Jared Hoying 477 5.9% 23.3% .166 .274 .231 .279 .398 .288 72
Drew Robinson 472 10.6% 32.6% .191 .291 .215 .301 .407 .305 83
Will Middlebrooks 376 5.6% 28.2% .189 .273 .226 .271 .414 .289 73
A.J. Jimenez 226 4.0% 22.1% .136 .275 .230 .265 .366 .270 60
Mike Napoli 467 11.6% 30.8% .207 .257 .210 .308 .417 .311 87
Phil Gosselin 273 5.1% 18.7% .110 .325 .272 .314 .382 .301 81
Ryan Rua 347 6.9% 30.8% .151 .313 .233 .292 .384 .291 74
Drew Stubbs 341 10.3% 33.7% .126 .311 .213 .297 .339 .280 66
Josh Morgan 520 4.8% 14.0% .089 .286 .254 .297 .343 .279 66
Doug Bernier 316 6.3% 22.8% .091 .276 .221 .277 .312 .260 53
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 572 5.8% 14.2% .074 .284 .247 .303 .321 .277 64
Tyler Smith 443 7.2% 20.8% .090 .291 .236 .298 .326 .275 63
Luis La O 532 4.7% 10.2% .080 .285 .264 .306 .344 .283 68
Jose Trevino 440 3.6% 14.8% .102 .241 .219 .248 .321 .245 42
Andy Ibanez 444 6.3% 17.6% .130 .275 .240 .290 .370 .284 69
Juan Centeno 290 5.5% 16.9% .082 .307 .261 .303 .343 .281 67
Jose Cardona 503 5.0% 16.1% .099 .283 .248 .290 .347 .276 64
Pete Kozma 345 6.4% 22.9% .073 .256 .200 .260 .273 .239 38
Hunter Cole 431 6.5% 27.8% .154 .295 .228 .281 .382 .285 69
Jason Martinson 419 7.2% 41.1% .152 .299 .192 .257 .344 .261 53
Michael De Leon 476 3.6% 14.9% .084 .267 .235 .264 .319 .253 48
Brett Hayes 195 5.1% 32.8% .099 .235 .170 .216 .269 .213 21
Yanio Perez 539 5.6% 22.6% .131 .305 .252 .301 .382 .295 76
Scott Heineman 550 6.9% 28.7% .118 .307 .224 .290 .343 .277 64
Luke Tendler 500 7.0% 27.2% .127 .291 .223 .283 .350 .275 63
Michael O’Neill 452 5.3% 33.2% .122 .297 .209 .262 .331 .259 52

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Adrian Beltre 430 6.0 112 9 2.7 Brooks Robinson
Elvis Andrus 656 5.2 97 -4 1.9 Gene Alley
Willie Calhoun 586 6.1 116 -2 1.9 Rafael Palmeiro
Joey Gallo 507 5.7 116 2 1.7 Willie Upshaw
Nomar Mazara 627 5.7 110 -1 1.6 Adam Lind
Jurickson Profar 459 4.7 91 1 1.6 Ramon Vazquez
Rougned Odor 633 5.1 101 -6 1.4 Ron Gant
Robinson Chirinos 270 4.8 97 2 1.3 Mike Macfarlane
Carlos Gomez 457 4.7 93 1 1.2 Preston Wilson
Hanser Alberto 410 4.0 77 6 0.8 Jerry Schunk
Brett Nicholas 414 4.0 78 -2 0.5 Ed Ott
Shin-Soo Choo 529 5.4 104 -10 0.4 Shawn Green
Delino DeShields 471 4.5 80 -4 0.4 Chad Curtis
Ronald Guzman 549 4.8 93 3 0.4 Francisco Melendez
Jared Hoying 477 4.0 77 1 0.3 Marc Sagmoen
Drew Robinson 472 4.1 86 3 0.3 David Cook
Will Middlebrooks 376 3.9 79 2 0.3 Ryan Minor
A.J. Jimenez 226 3.5 66 2 0.3 Carlos Corporan
Mike Napoli 467 4.3 91 1 0.1 Deron Johnson
Phil Gosselin 273 4.4 84 -3 0.1 Omar Infante
Ryan Rua 347 4.0 78 3 0.1 Mario Encarnacion
Drew Stubbs 341 3.5 69 2 0.0 Jim Landis
Josh Morgan 520 3.7 70 -1 0.0 Hector Rincones
Doug Bernier 316 2.9 57 7 0.0 Jeff Branson
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 572 3.5 67 4 -0.1 Jackie Gutierrez
Tyler Smith 443 3.4 66 0 -0.1 Bruce Crabbe
Luis La O 532 3.6 73 1 -0.2 Kary Bridges
Jose Trevino 440 2.7 50 6 -0.3 Jeff Winchester
Andy Ibanez 444 3.8 74 -3 -0.3 Keith Luuloa
Juan Centeno 290 3.8 72 -6 -0.3 Dick Bertell
Jose Cardona 503 3.5 69 1 -0.3 William Rittweger
Pete Kozma 345 2.3 43 7 -0.4 Les Dennis
Hunter Cole 431 3.7 75 1 -0.5 Greg Litton
Jason Martinson 419 2.9 58 2 -0.6 Trace Coquillette
Michael De Leon 476 2.9 55 3 -0.7 Jerome Alviso
Brett Hayes 195 1.9 29 0 -0.8 George Mitterwald
Yanio Perez 539 4.2 80 -3 -0.9 Brandon Snyder
Scott Heineman 550 3.3 68 -1 -1.3 Keith Bodie
Luke Tendler 500 3.3 67 -4 -1.5 Angel Molina
Michael O’Neill 452 3.0 57 -8 -1.7 Jamie Gann

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Cole Hamels L 34 26 26 154.0 128 53 18 148 71 66
Martin Perez L 27 29 29 168.0 102 55 16 183 87 81
Alex Claudio L 26 65 1 76.3 54 15 5 76 29 27
Miguel Gonzalez R 34 24 24 134.3 88 43 21 151 77 72
Doug Fister R 34 22 20 113.7 81 38 17 125 63 59
Keone Kela R 25 48 0 45.7 64 18 4 33 15 14
Nick Martinez R 27 29 22 136.7 81 32 22 154 79 74
Mike Minor L 30 59 0 66.0 74 24 9 58 29 27
Andrew Cashner R 31 25 25 139.3 88 54 21 156 81 76
Matt Bush R 32 58 0 56.3 60 18 6 51 24 22
Ariel Jurado R 22 26 26 139.3 75 43 19 166 83 78
Clayton Blackburn R 25 23 21 111.3 79 32 17 127 64 60
Joe Palumbo L 23 25 6 65.0 67 40 7 60 34 32
Ronald Herrera R 23 25 24 131.0 82 49 19 152 80 75
Tony Barnette R 34 48 0 54.3 53 20 6 53 26 24
Jose Leclerc R 24 56 0 70.3 77 51 5 60 35 33
Pedro Payano R 23 24 23 115.0 83 72 13 122 71 66
Jake Diekman L 31 51 0 44.0 52 25 3 36 19 18
Anthony Bass R 30 27 12 81.7 66 35 11 88 47 44
Ricardo Rodriguez R 25 68 0 67.7 67 27 10 66 35 33
Nick Gardewine R 24 44 0 48.0 46 20 5 46 24 22
Dario Alvarez L 29 43 0 46.7 59 24 7 43 24 22
Paolo Espino R 31 26 18 109.7 91 28 25 124 68 64
Chi Chi Gonzalez R 26 11 10 58.0 27 26 6 70 35 33
Yohander Mendez L 23 29 23 123.0 97 51 23 134 79 74
Tyson Ross R 31 15 14 70.0 48 42 7 76 43 40
Jason Grilli R 41 49 0 42.7 51 20 7 39 22 21
Connor Sadzeck R 26 31 16 95.7 79 58 15 105 62 58
Jimmy Reyes L 29 37 4 60.0 36 21 9 70 36 34
Brett Martin L 23 16 16 76.7 56 41 12 87 50 47
A.J. Griffin R 30 21 20 94.0 79 34 23 100 63 59
R.J. Alvarez R 27 44 0 44.0 47 29 6 42 26 24
Tanner Scheppers R 31 42 0 51.7 38 23 7 55 31 29
Wesley Wright L 33 29 0 29.7 18 17 3 33 18 17
Adam Loewen L 34 47 0 49.0 52 43 5 44 30 28
Allen Webster R 28 18 16 86.3 61 43 18 103 62 58
Cody Palmquist R 24 35 2 49.7 34 18 11 59 35 33
Sam Wolff R 27 30 8 57.0 52 34 13 63 42 39
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 33 25 11 82.3 55 27 20 99 60 56
Preston Claiborne R 29 38 1 43.3 40 21 11 49 32 30
Collin Wiles R 24 27 25 137.0 74 35 31 173 98 92
Ryne Slack L 25 36 0 47.7 36 34 8 53 34 32
Tayler Scott R 26 50 0 63.7 51 43 12 71 46 43
Jonathan Hernandez R 21 23 22 98.7 68 64 20 117 77 72
David Ledbetter R 26 27 19 102.0 65 52 31 134 93 87

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Cole Hamels 154.0 663 19.3% 8.0% .285 3.86 4.18 84 94
Martin Perez 168.0 742 13.7% 7.4% .296 4.34 4.20 95 94
Alex Claudio 76.3 320 16.9% 4.7% .292 3.18 3.22 70 72
Miguel Gonzalez 134.3 597 14.7% 7.2% .296 4.82 4.95 105 111
Doug Fister 113.7 504 16.1% 7.5% .298 4.67 4.76 102 107
Keone Kela 45.7 188 34.0% 9.6% .287 2.76 2.74 60 61
Nick Martinez 136.7 596 13.6% 5.4% .290 4.87 4.90 106 110
Mike Minor 66.0 280 26.4% 8.6% .285 3.68 3.69 80 83
Andrew Cashner 139.3 628 14.0% 8.6% .294 4.91 5.10 107 114
Matt Bush 56.3 238 25.2% 7.6% .296 3.51 3.48 77 78
Ariel Jurado 139.3 627 12.0% 6.9% .304 5.04 4.93 110 111
Clayton Blackburn 111.3 493 16.0% 6.5% .306 4.85 4.72 106 106
Joe Palumbo 65.0 295 22.7% 13.6% .301 4.43 4.57 97 103
Ronald Herrera 131.0 594 13.8% 8.2% .305 5.15 5.10 113 114
Tony Barnette 54.3 236 22.5% 8.5% .303 3.98 3.69 87 83
Jose Leclerc 70.3 322 23.9% 15.8% .296 4.22 4.11 92 92
Pedro Payano 115.0 539 15.4% 13.4% .299 5.17 5.24 113 118
Jake Diekman 44.0 193 26.9% 13.0% .297 3.68 3.38 80 76
Anthony Bass 81.7 368 17.9% 9.5% .306 4.85 4.65 106 104
Ricardo Rodriguez 67.7 296 22.6% 9.1% .298 4.39 4.43 96 99
Nick Gardewine 48.0 210 21.9% 9.5% .301 4.12 4.03 90 90
Dario Alvarez 46.7 207 28.5% 11.6% .316 4.24 4.25 93 95
Paolo Espino 109.7 481 18.9% 5.8% .299 5.25 5.39 115 121
Chi Chi Gonzalez 58.0 270 10.0% 9.6% .308 5.12 5.07 112 114
Yohander Mendez 123.0 554 17.5% 9.2% .295 5.41 5.43 118 122
Tyson Ross 70.0 328 14.6% 12.8% .307 5.14 5.14 112 115
Jason Grilli 42.7 187 27.3% 10.7% .299 4.43 4.38 97 98
Connor Sadzeck 95.7 450 17.6% 12.9% .308 5.46 5.55 119 124
Jimmy Reyes 60.0 271 13.3% 7.7% .302 5.10 5.11 111 115
Brett Martin 76.7 358 15.6% 11.5% .307 5.52 5.53 120 124
A.J. Griffin 94.0 416 19.0% 8.2% .280 5.65 5.87 123 132
R.J. Alvarez 44.0 203 23.2% 14.3% .303 4.91 4.84 107 109
Tanner Scheppers 51.7 233 16.3% 9.9% .296 5.05 4.84 110 109
Wesley Wright 29.7 139 12.9% 12.2% .303 5.16 5.08 113 114
Adam Loewen 49.0 234 22.2% 18.4% .298 5.14 5.06 112 113
Allen Webster 86.3 405 15.1% 10.6% .307 6.05 6.16 132 138
Cody Palmquist 49.7 226 15.0% 8.0% .300 5.98 5.88 131 132
Sam Wolff 57.0 268 19.4% 12.7% .303 6.16 6.19 134 139
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 82.3 373 14.7% 7.2% .296 6.12 6.11 134 137
Preston Claiborne 43.3 200 20.0% 10.5% .302 6.23 6.00 136 134
Collin Wiles 137.0 619 12.0% 5.7% .301 6.04 5.96 132 134
Ryne Slack 47.7 230 15.7% 14.8% .302 6.04 6.09 132 137
Tayler Scott 63.7 305 16.7% 14.1% .303 6.08 6.17 133 138
Jonathan Hernandez 98.7 477 14.3% 13.4% .305 6.57 6.57 143 147
David Ledbetter 102.0 492 13.2% 10.6% .305 7.68 7.54 168 169

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Cole Hamels 154.0 7.48 3.10 1.05 115 3.2 Tom Glavine
Martin Perez 168.0 5.46 2.95 0.86 104 2.7 Ken Brett
Alex Claudio 76.3 6.37 1.77 0.59 142 1.9 Steve Howe
Miguel Gonzalez 134.3 5.90 2.88 1.41 93 1.4 Bill Dietrich
Doug Fister 113.7 6.41 3.01 1.35 95 1.3 Armando Reynoso
Keone Kela 45.7 12.61 3.55 0.79 163 1.3 Troy Percival
Nick Martinez 136.7 5.33 2.11 1.45 92 1.2 Chuck Porter
Mike Minor 66.0 10.09 3.27 1.23 121 1.2 Alan Embree
Andrew Cashner 139.3 5.68 3.49 1.36 91 1.2 Jim Hearn
Matt Bush 56.3 9.59 2.88 0.96 128 1.2 Mike Timlin
Ariel Jurado 139.3 4.84 2.78 1.23 89 1.1 Nate Cornejo
Clayton Blackburn 111.3 6.39 2.59 1.37 92 1.0 Chris Begg
Joe Palumbo 65.0 9.28 5.54 0.97 102 0.8 Gary Wayne
Ronald Herrera 131.0 5.63 3.37 1.31 86 0.8 Jake Joseph
Tony Barnette 54.3 8.78 3.31 0.99 113 0.8 Jim Mecir
Jose Leclerc 70.3 9.85 6.53 0.64 107 0.7 Mark Littell
Pedro Payano 115.0 6.50 5.63 1.02 87 0.7 Rick Berg
Jake Diekman 44.0 10.64 5.11 0.61 121 0.7 Marshall Bridges
Anthony Bass 81.7 7.27 3.86 1.21 93 0.7 Mike Heathcott
Ricardo Rodriguez 67.7 8.91 3.59 1.33 103 0.6 Huck Flener
Nick Gardewine 48.0 8.63 3.75 0.94 109 0.5 Mike Hansen
Dario Alvarez 46.7 11.38 4.63 1.35 105 0.5 Tim Fortugno
Paolo Espino 109.7 7.47 2.30 2.05 85 0.5 Jose Lima
Chi Chi Gonzalez 58.0 4.19 4.03 0.93 88 0.4 Jake Joseph
Yohander Mendez 123.0 7.10 3.73 1.68 83 0.4 Keith Walker
Tyson Ross 70.0 6.17 5.40 0.90 86 0.4 Tony Cloninger
Jason Grilli 42.7 10.76 4.22 1.48 102 0.3 Greg Harris
Connor Sadzeck 95.7 7.43 5.46 1.41 83 0.2 Tim Byron
Jimmy Reyes 60.0 5.40 3.15 1.35 88 0.2 Chris Key
Brett Martin 76.7 6.57 4.81 1.41 82 0.2 Mike Wodnicki
A.J. Griffin 94.0 7.56 3.26 2.20 80 0.1 Scott Elarton
R.J. Alvarez 44.0 9.61 5.93 1.23 91 0.1 Bob Gibson
Tanner Scheppers 51.7 6.62 4.01 1.22 89 0.0 Jake Robbins
Wesley Wright 29.7 5.46 5.16 0.91 86 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Adam Loewen 49.0 9.55 7.90 0.92 86 -0.1 Marshall Bridges
Allen Webster 86.3 6.36 4.48 1.88 75 -0.3 Mike Heathcott
Cody Palmquist 49.7 6.16 3.26 1.99 75 -0.4 Brandon McCarthy
Sam Wolff 57.0 8.21 5.37 2.05 73 -0.4 Mumba Rivera
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 82.3 6.01 2.95 2.19 74 -0.4 Jeff Harris
Preston Claiborne 43.3 8.31 4.36 2.28 74 -0.5 Ivan Maldonado
Collin Wiles 137.0 4.86 2.30 2.04 75 -0.5 John Gardner
Ryne Slack 47.7 6.80 6.42 1.51 75 -0.5 Dean Brueggemann
Tayler Scott 63.7 7.21 6.08 1.70 74 -0.7 Sean Green
Jonathan Hernandez 98.7 6.20 5.84 1.82 68 -1.0 Mark Woodyard
David Ledbetter 102.0 5.74 4.59 2.74 59 -2.3 David Walters

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
FrodoBeck
Member
FrodoBeck

Gallo with a 39% K rate projection is beautiful and horrifying. Also, that pitching staff. Woof.

Calhoun is the most interesting player to me on the roster, I’m excited to see how he fares in the ballpark there in arlington

seprotzmann
Member
seprotzmann

I’d be curious to know why Zips has Gallo at only 507 PA when he had 532 in 2016 before becoming an everyday player and Steamer/Depth have it going up marginally to significantly. It also has Gallo k% up, bb% down, and every counting stat down per PA. Any clues as to why Zips is so bearish on Gallo?

Joe Joe
Member
Member
Joe Joe

Steamer and ZiPS project nearly identical BB%, BABIP, and ISO. Besides PAs, K% is basically solely responsible for all the other stat changes. Steamer thinks his K% will improve. ZiPs has him basically regressing to his career K%.