2018 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
While some organizations have had success with a “stars-and-scrubs” approach to roster construction, history reveals that the star-and-scrubs tactic has been considerably less successful. Were Kevin Pillar (616 PA, 2.9 zWAR), Russell Martin (402, 2.4), and Justin Smoak (518, 2.2) to fall even a half-win short of their respective ZiPS forecasts in 2018, however, that’s precisely what would result in Toronto.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson (572, 5.6) is clearly the centerpiece of the Blue Jays’ field-playing contingent. His projected batting line — which, of course, features adjustments both for aging and regression to the mean — would nevertheless place him among the league’s top 20 batters. The fielding number (+6 runs at third base) produced by Dan Szymborski’s computer would render Donaldson the equivalent of a league-average shortstop.

As for what’s missing, the club would probably benefit most immediately from some assistance at a corner-outfield spot. Neither Teoscar Hernandez (553, 1.2) nor Steve Pearce (318, 0.8) profile as anything much better than a strong bench piece at the moment, nor do any superior options exist on the major-league roster.

Pitchers
While Blue Jays position players produced the second-worst collective WAR among their peers in 2017, the pitching staff fared much better, recording the 11th-best mark in the league. The principal members of the rotation all return in 2018. Marcus Stroman (190.2 IP, 4.3 zWAR), Aaron Sanchez (142.2, 2.8), J.A. Happ (142.0, 2.7), and Marco Estrada (162.2, 1.9) appear to form the foundation of a capable starting group. Joe Biagini (123.1, 1.2) is also expected to produce wins at a roughly average rate.

As for the bullpen, it represents the club’s one legitimate strength. A very cursory examination of last year’s ZiPS forecasts reveals zero cases in which a club’s top-five relievers were projected to record six wins collectively (as the Jays’ top-five relievers are here). Roberto Osuna (73.1 IP, 65 ERA-, 2.0 zWAR) is obviously the leader of the group, but Dominic Leone (68.2, 85, 1.2) and Aaron Loup (55.0, 83, 1.0) are both very well acquitted by ZiPS on a per-inning basis.

Bench/Prospects
Anthony Alford (384 PA, 1.3 zWAR) received just eight plate appearances in the majors last year and only slightly more than that at Triple-A. Nevertheless, he’s Toronto’s second-best outfielder, according to Szymborski’s computer. His value is largely confined to his defensive ability: while forecast for a batting line roughly 30% worse than average (73 wRC+), Alford is projected to record +10 fielding runs (or its equivalent in the minors) in center, in fewer than 400 plate appearances. He profiles roughly as Kevin Pillar’s equal, in other words, and Pillar has been one of the top two or three defensive outfielders in the majors over the last three seasons.

Bo Bichette (497, 1.0) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (509, 0.8) will likely appear atop most Blue Jays prospect lists this year, and they receive very promising forecasts here relative to their ages — just not sufficient to transform the Toronto Blue Jays in 2018. Catcher Danny Jansen (416, 1.2), who ascended to Triple-A last year after starting the season in High-A, appears capable of helping in a bench capacity.

Whatever the pitching staff’s strengths, depth doesn’t seem to be one of them. Brett Anderson (97.1 IP, 107 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) pitched well in a brief sting with Toronto but has departed via free agency. Mike Bolsinger (95.1, 109, 0.9) pitched less well and has also become a free agent.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Josh Donaldson R 32 3B 572 86 131 27 2 32 93 4 1
Kevin Pillar R 29 CF 616 70 155 38 2 13 54 16 6
Russell Martin R 35 C 402 49 79 14 0 14 53 2 3
Justin Smoak B 31 1B 518 65 117 24 1 27 80 0 1
Devon Travis R 27 2B 383 50 98 27 1 12 49 7 3
Troy Tulowitzki R 33 SS 409 43 91 16 0 15 52 0 1
Kendrys Morales B 35 DH 556 62 133 25 1 25 90 0 0
Anthony Alford R 23 CF 384 41 76 15 1 8 34 15 5
Danny Jansen R 23 C 416 47 93 21 2 6 43 3 0
Teoscar Hernandez R 25 RF 553 69 119 27 3 19 68 17 9
Bo Bichette R 20 SS 497 69 117 30 4 16 74 15 7
Reese McGuire L 23 C 285 32 59 14 2 4 31 3 5
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 19 3B 509 60 112 21 3 14 60 8 5
Steve Pearce R 35 LF 318 37 74 17 1 13 40 1 1
Christian Lopes R 25 3B 445 47 99 23 1 6 40 11 3
Jonathan Davis R 26 CF 491 51 87 18 3 10 42 15 9
Chris Coghlan L 33 LF 339 39 73 19 3 7 35 4 3
Miguel Montero L 34 C 303 28 60 9 0 9 36 1 1
Dalton Pompey B 25 CF 475 54 99 15 4 8 36 22 5
Tim Lopes R 24 2B 555 52 121 24 4 5 43 16 10
Edward Olivares R 22 CF 547 63 118 22 6 15 62 14 10
Raffy Lopez L 30 C 308 31 64 12 1 7 34 1 0
Darwin Barney R 32 2B 353 35 80 14 1 5 28 5 2
Connor Panas L 25 RF 431 47 81 13 2 16 49 3 2
Gregorio Petit R 33 SS 298 28 66 18 1 4 27 2 1
Michael Saunders L 31 RF 412 49 89 20 3 12 45 2 2
Rowdy Tellez L 23 1B 527 57 116 29 2 15 67 6 2
Gift Ngoepe R 28 SS 370 36 60 14 3 9 36 3 4
Dwight Smith Jr. L 25 LF 513 55 112 23 2 11 49 9 6
Lourdes Gurriel R 24 SS 468 52 104 22 0 12 53 7 3
Ezequiel Carrera L 31 LF 336 41 74 10 2 7 26 12 4
Jose Bautista R 37 RF 564 73 104 24 0 19 66 4 2
Cavan Biggio L 23 2B 518 53 98 16 4 9 45 8 7
Luke Maile R 27 C 299 27 55 13 1 5 26 1 1
Jon Berti R 28 2B 363 35 75 12 3 5 27 24 7
Shane Opitz L 26 SS 309 27 66 14 2 2 22 5 3
Jason Leblebijian R 27 3B 475 48 94 20 2 12 49 5 4
Darrell Ceciliani L 28 CF 293 30 63 12 2 8 31 8 3
Mike Ohlman R 27 C 350 36 64 14 0 11 38 2 1
Ryan Goins L 30 SS 436 38 91 18 2 7 49 3 2
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 33 C 240 22 34 8 0 8 24 0 0
Roemon Fields L 27 CF 488 44 99 12 4 2 28 34 12
Ian Parmley L 28 RF 280 23 52 7 1 1 16 7 3
Max Pentecost R 25 1B 316 31 66 11 1 8 33 1 2
Richard Urena B 22 SS 632 54 136 30 5 9 58 3 4
Andrew Guillotte R 25 LF 463 45 93 17 2 5 33 14 9
Derrick Loveless L 25 LF 388 37 64 13 2 7 31 6 5
Harold Ramirez R 23 RF 495 46 110 18 4 6 45 5 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Josh Donaldson 572 13.5% 21.2% .262 .296 .271 .375 .533 .382 139
Kevin Pillar 616 4.4% 14.8% .141 .298 .269 .307 .410 .306 89
Russell Martin 402 12.2% 24.9% .165 .284 .232 .342 .397 .324 101
Justin Smoak 518 10.8% 23.7% .235 .291 .257 .340 .491 .351 119
Devon Travis 383 6.0% 19.6% .183 .319 .276 .322 .459 .332 106
Troy Tulowitzki 409 8.1% 19.3% .165 .273 .247 .313 .412 .311 92
Kendrys Morales 556 7.0% 21.0% .201 .292 .262 .318 .463 .330 105
Anthony Alford 384 8.3% 28.1% .120 .297 .222 .298 .342 .281 73
Danny Jansen 416 7.2% 14.4% .115 .280 .249 .314 .364 .295 82
Teoscar Hernandez 553 7.2% 28.6% .179 .304 .237 .298 .416 .305 88
Bo Bichette 497 6.0% 22.9% .187 .303 .254 .304 .440 .316 96
Reese McGuire 285 8.1% 15.8% .118 .264 .232 .298 .350 .282 73
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 509 9.2% 17.9% .152 .278 .247 .320 .400 .310 92
Steve Pearce 318 8.2% 19.2% .204 .286 .260 .330 .463 .337 110
Christian Lopes 445 7.6% 20.0% .107 .299 .246 .309 .352 .290 79
Jonathan Davis 491 8.8% 30.1% .126 .281 .203 .287 .329 .273 67
Chris Coghlan 339 10.6% 22.1% .154 .304 .245 .331 .399 .316 96
Miguel Montero 303 10.9% 23.8% .137 .276 .228 .320 .365 .297 83
Dalton Pompey 475 8.2% 24.2% .110 .295 .231 .298 .340 .281 73
Tim Lopes 555 6.3% 21.1% .092 .297 .238 .290 .330 .271 66
Edward Olivares 547 4.2% 24.3% .155 .281 .231 .276 .386 .283 74
Raffy Lopez 308 7.8% 27.3% .125 .300 .229 .293 .355 .282 73
Darwin Barney 353 5.4% 16.4% .095 .283 .245 .289 .340 .274 68
Connor Panas 431 6.7% 32.9% .166 .277 .207 .276 .373 .281 73
Gregorio Petit 298 4.0% 20.8% .114 .286 .235 .267 .349 .263 61
Michael Saunders 412 8.5% 25.2% .167 .298 .239 .307 .406 .305 88
Rowdy Tellez 527 7.6% 22.2% .163 .287 .243 .302 .406 .301 86
Gift Ngoepe 370 8.1% 39.2% .142 .285 .181 .254 .322 .253 54
Dwight Smith Jr. 513 7.4% 20.5% .128 .285 .239 .299 .368 .289 78
Lourdes Gurriel 468 5.8% 17.3% .135 .268 .241 .289 .376 .285 75
Ezequiel Carrera 336 8.3% 22.6% .117 .310 .248 .318 .366 .300 85
Jose Bautista 564 12.4% 24.5% .167 .256 .215 .317 .382 .305 89
Cavan Biggio 518 8.7% 30.1% .111 .297 .213 .287 .323 .269 65
Luke Maile 299 5.4% 22.7% .108 .242 .197 .245 .305 .240 46
Jon Berti 363 6.3% 24.2% .099 .290 .225 .283 .324 .267 64
Shane Opitz 309 5.2% 18.4% .084 .278 .230 .271 .314 .254 55
Jason Leblebijian 475 5.9% 32.8% .137 .300 .214 .268 .351 .267 64
Darrell Ceciliani 293 4.8% 27.6% .146 .294 .230 .273 .376 .277 70
Mike Ohlman 350 8.9% 36.6% .149 .296 .203 .274 .351 .273 67
Ryan Goins 436 6.2% 21.3% .108 .278 .229 .277 .337 .267 63
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 240 11.3% 43.8% .153 .263 .163 .258 .316 .252 54
Roemon Fields 488 5.5% 23.0% .057 .285 .219 .265 .276 .239 46
Ian Parmley 280 5.7% 28.9% .047 .290 .203 .251 .250 .224 36
Max Pentecost 316 4.7% 28.5% .125 .290 .223 .263 .348 .264 62
Richard Urena 632 4.4% 23.6% .113 .289 .229 .264 .342 .261 59
Andrew Guillotte 463 5.8% 23.1% .085 .278 .218 .273 .303 .255 56
Derrick Loveless 388 10.6% 35.8% .111 .289 .188 .277 .299 .257 57
Harold Ramirez 495 4.6% 19.2% .095 .287 .239 .282 .334 .268 64

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Josh Donaldson 572 7.4 141 6 5.6 Ron Santo
Kevin Pillar 616 4.7 91 13 2.9 Johnny Groth
Russell Martin 402 4.6 99 3 2.4 Chris Hoiles
Justin Smoak 518 6.0 120 1 2.2 Roy Smalley
Devon Travis 383 5.5 107 1 1.9 Davey Johnson
Troy Tulowitzki 409 4.6 93 2 1.6 Rico Petrocelli
Kendrys Morales 556 5.4 107 0 1.3 Hubie Brooks
Anthony Alford 384 3.7 72 10 1.3 C J Thomas
Danny Jansen 416 4.2 82 -1 1.2 Jeff Reed
Teoscar Hernandez 553 4.4 89 7 1.2 Scott Krause
Bo Bichette 497 4.9 97 -10 1.0 Danny Tartabull
Reese McGuire 285 3.4 74 5 0.9 Chris Stewart
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 509 4.5 93 -5 0.8 Edgardo Alfonzo
Steve Pearce 318 5.5 111 -3 0.8 Mike Sweeney
Christian Lopes 445 4.0 78 2 0.7 Carlos Villalobos
Jonathan Davis 491 3.1 66 8 0.6 Steve Moss
Chris Coghlan 339 4.7 96 -1 0.5 Junior Spivey
Miguel Montero 303 4.0 84 -4 0.5 Jamie Quirk
Dalton Pompey 475 3.9 72 0 0.4 Greg Tubbs
Tim Lopes 555 3.3 67 7 0.4 Danny Richar
Edward Olivares 547 3.6 76 2 0.3 Tyler Minges
Raffy Lopez 308 3.7 74 -3 0.3 Dwight Lowry
Darwin Barney 353 3.6 69 3 0.3 Bien Figueroa
Connor Panas 431 3.5 73 7 0.2 Garrick Haltiwanger
Gregorio Petit 298 3.3 64 3 0.2 Aurelio Rodriguez
Michael Saunders 412 4.4 90 -1 0.2 Brian Lesher
Rowdy Tellez 527 4.4 88 2 0.2 Mike Rendina
Gift Ngoepe 370 2.5 54 7 0.2 Jake Wald
Dwight Smith Jr. 513 3.8 79 4 0.1 Theron Todd
Lourdes Gurriel 468 3.9 77 -6 0.1 Kevin Baez
Ezequiel Carrera 336 4.3 84 -2 0.0 Rob Mackowiak
Jose Bautista 564 4.2 88 -5 0.0 Greg Vaughn
Cavan Biggio 518 3.1 65 5 0.0 Demetrish Jenkins
Luke Maile 299 2.5 47 5 0.0 Mike Ryan
Jon Berti 363 3.5 63 1 0.0 Rodney Lofton
Shane Opitz 309 2.9 57 3 -0.1 Brad Hassey
Jason Leblebijian 475 3.2 65 2 -0.2 Glenn Williams
Darrell Ceciliani 293 3.7 73 -3 -0.3 Jalal Leach
Mike Ohlman 350 3.3 67 -7 -0.3 David Ross
Ryan Goins 436 3.2 64 -3 -0.4 Juan Castro
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 240 2.6 54 -5 -0.6 Jerry Goff
Roemon Fields 488 2.8 47 6 -0.7 Eric Reed
Ian Parmley 280 2.2 36 5 -1.1 Jay Sitzman
Max Pentecost 316 3.1 63 0 -1.1 Adam Keim
Richard Urena 632 3.1 62 -6 -1.1 Pedro Sanchez
Andrew Guillotte 463 2.8 55 5 -1.1 Steve Garrabrants
Derrick Loveless 388 2.6 56 -1 -1.3 Carlos Mario Manzeppi
Harold Ramirez 495 3.2 65 -2 -1.4 Brian Manning

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Marcus Stroman R 27 31 31 190.7 165 52 17 186 80 75
Aaron Sanchez R 25 26 26 142.7 110 58 13 137 65 61
J.A. Happ L 35 25 25 142.0 127 43 17 137 65 61
Roberto Osuna R 23 73 0 73.3 86 13 8 59 24 22
Marco Estrada R 34 28 28 162.7 141 56 24 151 85 79
Joe Biagini R 28 41 21 123.3 97 44 15 129 67 63
Dominic Leone R 26 65 0 68.7 78 25 8 61 29 27
Brett Anderson L 30 20 20 97.3 61 31 10 111 51 48
Ryan Tepera R 30 64 0 67.7 72 27 8 59 30 28
Aaron Loup L 30 65 0 55.0 58 23 4 49 22 21
Mike Bolsinger R 30 25 15 95.3 90 38 14 99 51 48
Cesar Valdez R 33 21 17 100.0 63 19 15 114 56 52
Danny Barnes R 27 50 0 63.7 74 17 11 60 31 29
Ryan Borucki L 24 26 25 130.7 105 45 23 143 79 74
Matt Dermody L 27 53 1 65.7 48 15 9 71 33 31
Nick Tepesch R 29 19 18 92.3 56 28 14 104 55 51
Tom Koehler R 32 30 23 127.7 110 54 23 138 77 72
Leonel Campos R 30 44 1 51.7 59 29 6 45 26 24
Murphy Smith R 30 36 8 77.7 51 28 10 87 45 42
Thomas Pannone L 24 25 24 123.3 103 46 23 135 77 72
T.J. House L 28 25 20 112.0 80 57 15 126 70 65
Jeff Beliveau L 31 44 1 55.3 63 32 8 50 30 28
Mat Latos R 30 17 14 75.7 56 30 13 83 46 43
Lucas Harrell R 33 20 17 87.7 63 55 9 94 55 51
John Stilson R 27 38 0 50.7 42 25 6 51 28 26
Chad Girodo L 27 37 1 51.7 36 18 7 56 29 27
Jon Harris R 24 24 24 129.7 85 51 22 149 83 78
J.P. Howell L 35 35 0 25.0 19 12 3 26 14 13
Francisco Rios R 23 23 18 89.7 60 40 14 101 58 54
Blake McFarland R 30 37 0 44.3 47 20 8 44 26 24
Taylor Guerrieri R 25 22 20 102.0 65 37 18 117 66 62
Tim Mayza L 26 52 0 64.0 65 35 9 63 37 35
Carlos Ramirez R 27 35 0 43.0 43 24 7 41 26 24
Jordan Romano R 25 25 23 117.3 91 63 19 124 77 72
Chris S. Smith R 29 37 1 44.0 36 14 9 49 28 26
Chris Rowley R 27 33 15 116.7 79 34 24 136 77 72
Sean Reid-Foley R 22 25 25 119.3 99 56 23 131 80 75
Taylor Cole R 28 21 19 99.3 85 42 21 113 67 63
Deck McGuire R 29 29 25 136.3 93 53 27 160 93 87
Dusty Isaacs R 26 41 0 56.3 56 26 13 61 39 36
Conner Greene R 23 26 25 123.7 75 87 15 139 87 81
Justin Shafer R 25 35 8 80.0 51 41 15 94 59 55
Andrew Case R 25 48 0 55.3 33 20 14 69 43 40
Luis Santos R 27 33 20 112.0 93 44 31 133 88 82

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Marcus Stroman 190.7 810 20.4% 6.4% .296 3.54 3.47 85 84
Aaron Sanchez 142.7 623 17.7% 9.3% .283 3.85 4.10 93 100
J.A. Happ 142.0 606 21.0% 7.1% .288 3.87 3.85 93 94
Roberto Osuna 73.3 292 29.5% 4.5% .280 2.70 2.72 65 66
Marco Estrada 162.7 695 20.3% 8.1% .270 4.37 4.41 105 107
Joe Biagini 123.3 543 17.9% 8.1% .298 4.60 4.36 111 106
Dominic Leone 68.7 292 26.7% 8.6% .296 3.54 3.45 85 84
Brett Anderson 97.3 434 14.1% 7.1% .305 4.44 4.20 107 102
Ryan Tepera 67.7 289 24.9% 9.3% .288 3.72 3.85 90 94
Aaron Loup 55.0 237 24.5% 9.7% .308 3.44 3.41 83 83
Mike Bolsinger 95.3 423 21.3% 9.0% .306 4.53 4.44 109 108
Cesar Valdez 100.0 433 14.5% 4.4% .299 4.68 4.54 113 110
Danny Barnes 63.7 268 27.6% 6.3% .301 4.10 4.02 99 98
Ryan Borucki 130.7 580 18.1% 7.8% .301 5.10 5.03 123 122
Matt Dermody 65.7 283 17.0% 5.3% .300 4.25 4.30 102 105
Nick Tepesch 92.3 409 13.7% 6.8% .295 4.97 4.99 120 121
Tom Koehler 127.7 575 19.1% 9.4% .301 5.08 5.12 122 124
Leonel Campos 51.7 229 25.8% 12.7% .295 4.18 4.18 101 102
Murphy Smith 77.7 348 14.7% 8.0% .303 4.87 4.75 117 116
Thomas Pannone 123.3 551 18.7% 8.3% .301 5.25 5.18 127 126
T.J. House 112.0 519 15.4% 11.0% .308 5.22 5.16 126 125
Jeff Beliveau 55.3 248 25.4% 12.9% .296 4.55 4.55 110 111
Mat Latos 75.7 340 16.5% 8.8% .293 5.11 5.14 123 125
Lucas Harrell 87.7 412 15.3% 13.3% .304 5.24 5.07 126 123
John Stilson 50.7 228 18.4% 11.0% .296 4.62 4.64 111 113
Chad Girodo 51.7 229 15.7% 7.9% .297 4.70 4.69 113 114
Jon Harris 129.7 589 14.4% 8.7% .300 5.41 5.39 130 131
J.P. Howell 25.0 113 16.8% 10.6% .295 4.68 4.76 113 116
Francisco Rios 89.7 410 14.6% 9.8% .300 5.42 5.39 131 131
Blake McFarland 44.3 197 23.9% 10.2% .300 4.87 4.80 117 117
Taylor Guerrieri 102.0 460 14.1% 8.0% .296 5.47 5.44 132 132
Tim Mayza 64.0 290 22.4% 12.1% .305 4.92 4.74 119 115
Carlos Ramirez 43.0 194 22.2% 12.4% .291 5.02 5.16 121 125
Jordan Romano 117.3 539 16.9% 11.7% .292 5.52 5.50 133 134
Chris S. Smith 44.0 195 18.5% 7.2% .301 5.32 5.27 128 128
Chris Rowley 116.7 520 15.2% 6.5% .297 5.55 5.48 134 133
Sean Reid-Foley 119.3 545 18.2% 10.3% .300 5.66 5.59 136 136
Taylor Cole 99.3 453 18.8% 9.3% .308 5.71 5.64 137 137
Deck McGuire 136.3 622 15.0% 8.5% .302 5.74 5.67 138 138
Dusty Isaacs 56.3 256 21.9% 10.2% .304 5.75 5.61 139 136
Conner Greene 123.7 597 12.6% 14.6% .301 5.89 5.80 142 141
Justin Shafer 80.0 375 13.6% 10.9% .300 6.19 6.01 149 146
Andrew Case 55.3 255 12.9% 7.8% .297 6.51 6.45 157 157
Luis Santos 112.0 513 18.1% 8.6% .301 6.59 6.43 159 156

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Marcus Stroman 190.7 7.79 2.45 0.80 121 4.3 Steve Rogers
Aaron Sanchez 142.7 6.94 3.66 0.82 111 2.8 Bump Hadley
J.A. Happ 142.0 8.05 2.73 1.08 111 2.7 Kenny Rogers
Roberto Osuna 73.3 10.55 1.60 0.98 159 2.0 Rod Beck
Marco Estrada 162.7 7.80 3.10 1.33 97 1.9 Milt Wilcox
Joe Biagini 123.3 7.08 3.21 1.09 92 1.2 Bill Swift
Dominic Leone 68.7 10.22 3.28 1.05 121 1.2 Manny Delcarmen
Brett Anderson 97.3 5.64 2.87 0.92 95 1.1 Kent Mercker
Ryan Tepera 67.7 9.58 3.59 1.06 115 1.0 Woody Williams
Aaron Loup 55.0 9.49 3.76 0.65 125 1.0 Tippy Martinez
Mike Bolsinger 95.3 8.50 3.59 1.32 93 0.9 Ryan Glynn
Cesar Valdez 100.0 5.67 1.71 1.35 90 0.7 Mickey Weston
Danny Barnes 63.7 10.46 2.40 1.55 103 0.6 Steve Reed
Ryan Borucki 130.7 7.23 3.10 1.58 84 0.6 Ottis Smith
Matt Dermody 65.7 6.58 2.06 1.23 101 0.5 Chris Key
Nick Tepesch 92.3 5.46 2.73 1.36 86 0.5 Dave Eiland
Tom Koehler 127.7 7.75 3.81 1.62 83 0.5 Jamey Wright
Leonel Campos 51.7 10.28 5.05 1.05 101 0.4 Tyler Yates
Murphy Smith 77.7 5.91 3.24 1.16 88 0.4 Ed Klieman
Thomas Pannone 123.3 7.52 3.36 1.68 82 0.3 Mike Maroth
T.J. House 112.0 6.43 4.58 1.21 82 0.3 Bill Wight
Jeff Beliveau 55.3 10.25 5.20 1.30 94 0.3 Kevin Tolar
Mat Latos 75.7 6.66 3.57 1.55 83 0.2 Dennis Burtt
Lucas Harrell 87.7 6.47 5.65 0.92 82 0.2 Tommy Byrne
John Stilson 50.7 7.46 4.44 1.07 93 0.2 Casey Daigle
Chad Girodo 51.7 6.27 3.14 1.22 91 0.2 Jim Roland
Jon Harris 129.7 5.90 3.54 1.53 79 0.1 Bobby Howry
J.P. Howell 25.0 6.84 4.32 1.08 90 0.0 Joe Gibbon
Francisco Rios 89.7 6.02 4.01 1.41 79 0.0 Justin Sturge
Blake McFarland 44.3 9.54 4.06 1.62 88 0.0 Bart Evans
Taylor Guerrieri 102.0 5.74 3.26 1.59 78 0.0 Don Fowler
Tim Mayza 64.0 9.14 4.92 1.27 87 0.0 Carmen Cali
Carlos Ramirez 43.0 9.00 5.02 1.47 85 -0.1 Matt Palmer
Jordan Romano 117.3 6.98 4.83 1.46 78 -0.1 Rod Boxberger
Chris S. Smith 44.0 7.36 2.86 1.84 81 -0.2 Tony Hudson
Chris Rowley 116.7 6.09 2.62 1.85 77 -0.3 Doug Vanderweele
Sean Reid-Foley 119.3 7.47 4.22 1.73 76 -0.3 Aaron Dean
Taylor Cole 99.3 7.70 3.81 1.90 75 -0.3 Kip Bouknight
Deck McGuire 136.3 6.14 3.50 1.78 75 -0.5 Scott Nielsen
Dusty Isaacs 56.3 8.95 4.15 2.08 74 -0.6 Tracy Thorpe
Conner Greene 123.7 5.46 6.33 1.09 73 -0.6 Brett Laxton
Justin Shafer 80.0 5.74 4.61 1.69 69 -0.9 Scott Suehr
Andrew Case 55.3 5.37 3.25 2.28 66 -1.1 Scott Strickland
Luis Santos 112.0 7.47 3.54 2.49 65 -1.6 Joe Ganote

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Jason
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Member
Jason

This year is gonna be rough, I really hope they admit this team will not be competitive and it’s for the best to reload for 2019+

Joeys Bat Flip
Member
Member
Joeys Bat Flip

Probably. It could be a good one if *everything* breaks just the way they want it to. And that’s a good strategy….right…….?

…..Right?

I agree that they should reload, and think that the reason they won’t is that ownership doesn’t want to deal with the blowback from the fans.

Huron
Member
Huron

There are rumours about Rogers looking to sell the team. I think it’s more they don’t want to devalue the product before selling it.

cheekfullofchew
Member
cheekfullofchew

god I hope they do sell.

StroShow
Member

“Rogers has announced the sale of the Blue Jays today to their new owner, Jeffrey Loria.”
Then I woke up in a cold sweat.

Jason
Member
Member
Jason

It’s just delaying the blowback, as they’re costing themselves valuable future wins. 78 wins vs 71 this year makes little difference, the extra 6-7 wins in a year or two would as fans really care about winning and only winning.

Damaso
Member
Damaso

Seems to me that these projections project a pretty good team.

A couple of good FA adds and these projections would seem to indicate a playoff threat.