2018 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Nationals have developed into one of the league’s “super teams” in recent years, having compiled a roster that is rivaled by few others in terms of balance and overall strength. In 2017, for example, both the club’s hitters and pitchers finished seventh or better by WAR. That feat was accomplished by only three other clubs, all of which reached the postseason.

Regard:

Top-10 Team Batter and Pitcher WAR, 2017
Team Batter WAR Batter Rank Pitcher WAR Pitcher Rank Average Rank
Dodgers 30.1 2 24.3 3 2.5
Indians 27.3 4 31.7 1 2.5
Yankees 27.9 3 24.4 2 2.5
Astros 33.0 1 20.8 6 3.5
Nationals 26.1 6 19.8 7 6.5
Cubs 26.7 5 15.9 12 8.5
Cardinals 24.6 8 16.7 10 9.0
D-backs 19.8 14 23.2 5 9.5
Red Sox 17.8 15 23.9 4 9.5
Rays 21.0 13 15.9 13 13.0

With regard to the Nationals’ field-playing cohort, specifically, almost all the principals from the 2017 club return in 2018. Even some of the non-principals return, as well. Bryce Harper (575 PA, 4.9 zWAR) and Anthony Rendon (585, 4.5) are near-MVP types, while Trea Turner (558, 3.4) does quite well here, too. Adam Eaton (583, 3.0), meanwhile, will essentially serve as a new acquisition for Washington after having recorded just 107 plate appearances in his first year with the organization.

Ryan Zimmerman (496, 0.8) is the club’s weakest link per ZiPS, forecast for just a 102 wRC+ after producing a 138 wRC+ mark in 2017. Szymborski’s computer calls for a 38-point drop in BABIP (.335 to .297) and 60-point decline in isolated power (.269 to .209), too.

Pitchers
Both Max Scherzer (190.2, 5.1) and Stephen Strasburg (166.2, 4.0) would represent the best starting pitcher on most clubs in the league. Regardless of how one measures it, that pair combined for no fewer than 11 wins together in 2017 — itself a better mark than half the rotations in the majors last season. To get a sense of their place in historical context, consider their top comps: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, respectively.

Gio Gonzalez (172.1, 2.7) and Tanner Roark (172.2, 2.3) are probably not among the best arms of their generation; however, they do profile as capable mid-rotation pieces in the year 2018. After that, the options for a starting role become a bit more scarce. Joe Ross (116.0, 1.5) is included here for reference but is expected to miss most of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. Erick Fedde (100.1, 0.9) receives the top projection among the team’s most obvious fifth-starter options.

The back end of Washington’s bullpen is composed largely of relative newcomers. Sean Doolittle (46.7 IP, 75 ERA-, 1.1 zWAR) and Ryan Madson (51.1, 68, 1.3) arrived in a July deal with Oakland. Both are well suited to high-leverage innings. Brandon Kintzler (58.0, 85, 0.9) also joined the Nationals in July — in this case, from Minnesota. Forecast for just a 13.7% strikeout rate in by ZiPS, he lacks swing-and-miss stuff but compensates for it with an excellent sinking fastball.

Bench/Prospects
A combination of graduations and trades have rendered the current iteration of the Washington system a bit less impressive than versions of it from recent years, and yet the club has retained one of the most promising young players in baseball, Victor Robles (544 PA, 2.5 zWAR). Ranked fourth on the top-100 list published by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel at the beginning of the week, the 20-year-old outfielder already profiles as an above-average major leaguer according to Szymborski’s computer, compensating for a slightly below-average bat (92 wRC+) with a projected +9 fielding runs in center field. He earns the top forecast among those players on the club who (a) have been omitted from the depth-chart image below and also (b) retain their rookie eligibility.

The departure of both Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez has thinned out the pitching depth in the organization. Right-hander A.J. Cole (137.2 IP, 114 ERA-, 0.7 zWAR) remains present, however. He’s an alternative to Fedde for the No. 5 starting role. Wander Suero (61.2, 90, 0.6), meanwhile, has recorded over 200 appearances in the minors for the Nationals without earning a promotion. He has earned, however, the top ERA projection among relievers omitted from the depth chart below.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Nationals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Bryce Harper L 25 RF 575 93 140 25 2 32 94 9 5
Anthony Rendon R 28 3B 585 83 140 34 2 21 84 9 3
Trea Turner R 25 SS 558 78 144 26 8 14 62 45 8
Adam Eaton L 29 LF 583 83 153 29 9 9 55 14 6
Daniel Murphy L 33 2B 565 77 157 36 3 19 85 4 2
Victor Robles R 21 CF 544 62 122 26 8 11 55 24 13
Michael A. Taylor R 27 CF 479 55 107 19 3 18 56 21 7
Moises Sierra R 29 RF 407 47 102 18 3 9 44 11 4
Wilmer Difo B 26 SS 483 56 115 18 4 7 40 18 5
Matt Wieters B 32 C 420 40 97 19 1 11 54 1 0
Matt Adams L 29 1B 369 40 90 20 1 16 63 1 1
Adam Lind L 34 1B 379 45 95 19 0 14 63 1 0
Brian Goodwin L 27 CF 435 50 94 20 3 13 48 10 3
Ryan Zimmerman R 33 1B 496 66 119 26 1 22 82 1 0
Daniel Johnson L 22 RF 534 60 128 23 5 15 57 18 12
Reid Brignac B 32 SS 412 42 84 17 2 9 40 3 2
Raudy Read R 24 C 448 46 103 23 1 11 49 3 2
Pedro Severino R 24 C 335 31 77 12 1 6 30 2 2
Spencer Kieboom R 27 C 289 30 62 14 1 5 27 0 0
Miguel Montero L 34 C 303 29 61 9 0 8 36 1 1
Kelvin Gutierrez R 23 3B 404 39 92 15 6 4 33 9 4
Corban Joseph L 29 2B 368 38 91 15 1 7 35 2 4
Neftali Soto R 29 1B 505 53 122 26 2 12 56 0 0
Yadiel Hernandez L 30 RF 447 49 106 19 1 8 43 4 2
Stephen Drew L 35 SS 255 24 51 14 1 7 33 0 1
Emmanuel Burriss B 33 SS 293 29 69 9 3 2 22 6 4
Michael Almanzar R 27 3B 438 41 95 20 1 10 43 1 1
Chris Heisey R 33 LF 241 29 45 8 1 10 28 2 1
Balbino Fuenmayor R 28 1B 377 42 95 18 1 13 49 0 0
Adrian Sanchez R 27 SS 373 35 85 17 1 4 31 6 3
Alejandro de Aza L 34 RF 303 35 66 13 4 5 29 5 3
Irving Falu B 35 2B 405 38 96 14 2 5 35 7 6
Jose Marmolejos L 25 1B 503 56 114 25 4 11 55 1 2
Andrew Stevenson L 24 CF 530 51 118 15 6 3 35 19 9
Jayson Werth R 39 LF 384 48 77 15 1 11 41 4 2
Taylor Gushue B 24 C 385 38 76 13 1 11 41 0 0
Ryan Raburn R 37 LF 198 21 39 6 3 5 18 1 1
Drew Ward L 23 3B 500 51 99 20 0 12 48 0 1
Mario Lisson R 34 1B 325 34 59 14 0 9 35 3 2
Jason Martinson R 29 2B 420 41 74 13 2 13 43 6 3
Rafael Bautista R 25 CF 431 44 99 12 3 2 27 23 8
Chris Dominguez R 31 1B 368 39 83 17 1 12 41 8 3
Joey Butler R 32 LF 341 36 72 12 1 8 32 2 1
Osvaldo Abreu R 24 SS 520 50 106 19 4 6 40 8 9
Telmito Agustin L 21 LF 438 44 93 18 3 11 45 12 11

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Bryce Harper 575 16.2% 20.7% .263 .328 .295 .409 .558 .400 146
Anthony Rendon 585 11.6% 16.1% .200 .301 .277 .366 .477 .359 119
Trea Turner 558 6.8% 20.1% .163 .332 .280 .330 .444 .331 100
Adam Eaton 583 8.2% 15.4% .143 .341 .295 .364 .437 .346 111
Daniel Murphy 565 7.1% 11.9% .192 .317 .304 .356 .496 .355 116
Victor Robles 544 5.5% 21.3% .156 .311 .253 .325 .409 .317 92
Michael A. Taylor 479 7.3% 33.2% .180 .337 .244 .301 .424 .307 85
Moises Sierra 407 6.6% 19.2% .136 .322 .272 .327 .408 .317 92
Wilmer Difo 483 5.8% 19.3% .105 .309 .258 .304 .363 .287 72
Matt Wieters 420 7.4% 19.5% .141 .293 .253 .310 .394 .302 82
Matt Adams 369 6.2% 22.8% .205 .302 .264 .309 .469 .324 96
Adam Lind 379 9.0% 17.4% .178 .306 .278 .340 .456 .336 104
Brian Goodwin 435 8.3% 27.8% .165 .309 .239 .303 .405 .302 82
Ryan Zimmerman 496 7.3% 21.8% .209 .297 .264 .319 .473 .333 102
Daniel Johnson 534 4.1% 21.9% .157 .306 .257 .300 .414 .305 84
Reid Brignac 412 8.5% 27.9% .129 .301 .226 .295 .356 .284 70
Raudy Read 448 5.1% 20.5% .138 .288 .245 .288 .383 .288 72
Pedro Severino 335 5.7% 19.4% .103 .293 .248 .293 .350 .279 67
Spencer Kieboom 289 8.0% 21.1% .118 .286 .236 .298 .354 .284 70
Miguel Montero 303 10.9% 22.4% .125 .279 .232 .323 .357 .296 78
Kelvin Gutierrez 404 5.7% 23.8% .104 .317 .245 .290 .349 .278 66
Corban Joseph 368 5.7% 12.2% .111 .288 .266 .309 .377 .296 78
Neftali Soto 505 5.9% 21.0% .140 .310 .260 .305 .400 .301 81
Yadiel Hernandez 447 9.4% 17.7% .113 .311 .265 .335 .378 .311 87
Stephen Drew 255 8.6% 19.6% .162 .253 .224 .291 .386 .290 74
Emmanuel Burriss 293 5.1% 11.6% .077 .283 .254 .299 .331 .275 64
Michael Almanzar 438 4.3% 25.3% .127 .291 .232 .272 .359 .271 61
Chris Heisey 241 8.7% 28.2% .185 .252 .208 .283 .394 .292 75
Balbino Fuenmayor 377 4.5% 19.4% .166 .303 .268 .305 .434 .313 89
Adrian Sanchez 373 4.6% 19.0% .089 .293 .244 .281 .332 .266 58
Alejandro de Aza 303 8.3% 20.8% .133 .298 .244 .312 .376 .297 78
Irving Falu 405 5.7% 10.9% .088 .277 .257 .298 .345 .279 67
Jose Marmolejos 503 7.6% 24.1% .145 .313 .250 .310 .395 .302 82
Andrew Stevenson 530 6.2% 22.3% .073 .310 .240 .290 .314 .266 58
Jayson Werth 384 11.5% 24.0% .150 .282 .231 .323 .380 .307 85
Taylor Gushue 385 6.5% 27.8% .136 .272 .215 .270 .351 .266 58
Ryan Raburn 198 9.6% 31.8% .155 .312 .224 .303 .379 .293 76
Drew Ward 500 9.0% 32.0% .125 .312 .221 .296 .347 .282 68
Mario Lisson 325 9.2% 31.7% .142 .279 .205 .286 .347 .277 65
Jason Martinson 420 6.9% 40.5% .146 .302 .193 .256 .339 .259 53
Rafael Bautista 431 5.1% 17.6% .060 .301 .249 .295 .309 .267 59
Chris Dominguez 368 3.0% 29.6% .158 .307 .238 .269 .395 .282 69
Joey Butler 341 8.2% 26.7% .123 .305 .234 .303 .357 .288 73
Osvaldo Abreu 520 6.0% 26.5% .094 .298 .222 .275 .317 .260 54
Telmito Agustin 438 3.9% 31.7% .138 .309 .225 .256 .362 .264 57

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Bryce Harper 575 8.7 153 1 4.9 Manny Ramirez
Anthony Rendon 585 6.6 121 7 4.5 Todd Zeile
Trea Turner 558 6.1 103 2 3.4 Ryne Sandberg
Adam Eaton 583 6.1 112 7 3.0 Gene Richards
Daniel Murphy 565 6.8 123 -8 2.7 Charlie Gehringer
Victor Robles 544 4.8 93 9 2.5 Ray Lankford
Michael A. Taylor 479 4.7 90 3 1.5 Justin Ruggiano
Moises Sierra 407 5.0 94 6 1.3 Gabe Kapler
Wilmer Difo 483 4.2 76 4 1.2 Curtis Wilkerson
Matt Wieters 420 4.4 85 -3 1.2 Jamie Quirk
Matt Adams 369 5.3 103 5 1.0 Daryle Ward
Adam Lind 379 5.8 109 0 0.9 Kevin Millar
Brian Goodwin 435 4.5 85 0 0.9 Chris Wakeland
Ryan Zimmerman 496 5.6 106 -4 0.8 Eric Karros
Daniel Johnson 534 4.4 87 5 0.8 Otis Green
Reid Brignac 412 3.6 72 3 0.7 Shanie Dugas
Raudy Read 448 3.9 76 -3 0.7 Brook Fordyce
Pedro Severino 335 3.6 70 1 0.5 Scott Ackerman
Spencer Kieboom 289 3.7 72 -1 0.4 Mike Nickeas
Miguel Montero 303 4.0 81 -4 0.4 Jamie Quirk
Kelvin Gutierrez 404 3.7 69 4 0.4 Ron Gardenhire
Corban Joseph 368 4.1 81 -1 0.3 Tim Krauss
Neftali Soto 505 4.4 85 4 0.3 Shawn Wooten
Yadiel Hernandez 447 4.6 89 -3 0.2 Jim Eppard
Stephen Drew 255 3.8 78 -2 0.2 Geoff Blum
Emmanuel Burriss 293 3.5 67 0 0.1 Jose Uribe
Michael Almanzar 438 3.4 66 4 0.1 Brant Ust
Chris Heisey 241 3.8 77 2 0.1 Dustan Mohr
Balbino Fuenmayor 377 4.9 93 -2 0.1 Walter Young
Adrian Sanchez 373 3.3 62 1 -0.1 Jace Brewer
Alejandro de Aza 303 4.2 82 -1 -0.1 Dann Howitt
Irving Falu 405 3.6 70 0 -0.1 Edgar Caceres
Jose Marmolejos 503 4.3 85 0 -0.2 Mike Maksudian
Andrew Stevenson 530 3.3 61 3 -0.2 Trench Davis
Jayson Werth 384 4.3 86 -6 -0.2 Greg Vaughn
Taylor Gushue 385 3.3 63 -5 -0.3 Michael McCormick
Ryan Raburn 198 3.9 80 -3 -0.3 Curtis Pride
Drew Ward 500 3.5 70 -5 -0.4 Greg David
Mario Lisson 325 3.3 67 4 -0.4 Ty Van Burkleo
Jason Martinson 420 2.9 56 2 -0.5 Trace Coquillette
Rafael Bautista 431 3.5 61 -2 -0.5 Tom Goodwin
Chris Dominguez 368 3.8 73 0 -0.6 John Cotton
Joey Butler 341 3.8 75 -7 -0.9 Chris Pritchett
Osvaldo Abreu 520 2.8 57 -4 -1.0 Jason Bowers
Telmito Agustin 438 3.0 62 0 -1.3 Jimmy White

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Max Scherzer R 33 30 30 190.7 247 51 23 149 68 64
Stephen Strasburg R 29 28 28 166.7 197 40 18 144 63 59
Gio Gonzalez L 32 30 30 172.3 162 66 18 165 81 76
Tanner Roark R 31 30 29 172.7 147 55 23 170 87 81
Joe Ross R 25 22 21 116.0 101 31 17 121 59 55
Ryan Madson R 37 53 0 51.3 53 13 4 45 18 17
Sean Doolittle L 31 51 0 46.7 62 9 7 38 18 17
Erick Fedde R 25 29 17 100.3 83 34 14 108 55 51
Brandon Kintzler R 33 60 0 58.0 34 13 5 62 26 24
A.J. Cole R 26 27 25 137.7 111 51 24 149 81 76
Wander Suero R 26 53 0 61.7 52 24 6 61 29 27
Jaron Long R 26 26 24 141.0 89 33 24 166 86 80
Trevor Gott R 25 47 0 54.0 42 22 3 54 25 23
Enny Romero L 27 61 0 61.3 67 28 7 56 30 28
Joe Blanton R 37 50 0 52.7 50 16 7 51 25 23
Koda Glover R 25 43 0 49.3 50 12 7 48 24 22
Matt Grace L 29 51 1 63.7 44 23 5 67 31 29
Austin Voth R 26 25 24 125.0 92 54 19 138 76 71
Oliver Perez L 36 52 0 34.7 41 15 4 32 16 15
Shawn Kelley R 34 48 0 39.7 48 13 7 36 19 18
Aaron Barrett R 30 31 0 25.3 26 10 2 24 11 10
Francisco Rodriguez R 36 42 0 38.7 37 14 6 36 19 18
Justin Miller R 31 44 0 50.0 42 16 6 51 26 24
Jefry Rodriguez R 24 18 17 76.7 54 44 8 82 47 44
Kaleb Fleck R 29 43 0 52.0 53 26 6 50 28 26
Austin L. Adams R 27 47 0 57.0 74 54 5 45 31 29
Sammy Solis L 29 42 0 41.3 43 20 6 39 22 21
Neal Cotts L 38 48 0 43.0 42 17 7 43 24 22
Tommy Milone L 31 23 18 97.3 69 26 21 114 62 58
Logan Darnell L 29 17 14 81.3 48 30 13 96 52 49
Rafael Martin R 34 49 0 54.3 52 21 9 56 31 29
Cody Satterwhite R 31 32 1 49.7 42 23 7 52 29 27
Roman Mendez R 27 35 0 47.3 40 24 7 49 29 27
Joe Nathan R 43 30 0 27.0 27 14 5 28 17 16
Chris S. Smith R 29 37 1 44.0 37 15 9 48 28 26
Ryan Brinley R 25 38 0 45.3 30 12 8 53 28 26
Austen Williams R 25 22 22 109.3 63 39 18 132 73 68
Tim Collins L 28 26 0 27.0 27 21 5 27 18 17
Taylor Hill R 29 26 24 136.3 68 39 25 170 91 85
David Goforth R 29 51 0 56.7 42 34 7 61 35 33
John Simms R 26 25 23 124.7 87 49 23 144 85 79
Sean O’Sullivan R 30 20 19 96.0 58 36 18 115 66 62
Dakota Bacus R 27 26 8 71.7 50 33 13 83 49 46
Kyle Schepel R 27 38 0 51.3 47 35 8 52 34 32
Edwin Jackson R 34 28 16 94.7 75 45 18 106 65 61
Jeremy Guthrie R 39 23 20 115.7 69 43 22 143 81 76
Greg Ross R 28 24 21 118.0 60 48 21 145 82 77
Jeff Ames R 27 46 1 58.7 58 44 10 59 41 38
Braulio Lara L 29 36 3 50.3 45 39 9 55 37 35
Kyle McGowin R 26 21 21 105.3 74 49 23 126 78 73
Matt Crownover L 25 25 19 108.0 67 50 22 132 80 75
Derek Self R 28 37 1 56.0 34 24 13 70 44 41
Jimmy Cordero R 26 40 0 46.7 32 40 9 55 40 37
Wirkin Estevez R 26 21 19 99.0 50 55 20 125 79 74

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Max Scherzer 190.7 772 32.0% 6.6% .284 3.02 3.03 69 71
Stephen Strasburg 166.7 684 28.8% 5.8% .296 3.19 2.94 73 68
Gio Gonzalez 172.3 748 21.7% 8.8% .296 3.97 3.84 91 89
Tanner Roark 172.7 743 19.8% 7.4% .288 4.22 4.19 97 98
Joe Ross 116.0 500 20.2% 6.2% .300 4.27 4.17 98 97
Ryan Madson 51.3 212 25.0% 6.1% .293 2.98 2.87 68 67
Sean Doolittle 46.7 187 33.2% 4.8% .284 3.28 2.96 75 69
Erick Fedde 100.3 443 18.7% 7.7% .307 4.57 4.48 105 105
Brandon Kintzler 58.0 249 13.7% 5.2% .292 3.72 3.83 85 89
A.J. Cole 137.7 613 18.1% 8.3% .298 4.97 5.03 114 117
Wander Suero 61.7 270 19.3% 8.9% .297 3.94 3.95 90 92
Jaron Long 141.0 622 14.3% 5.3% .303 5.11 4.94 117 115
Trevor Gott 54.0 238 17.6% 9.2% .304 3.83 3.60 88 84
Enny Romero 61.3 268 25.0% 10.4% .299 4.11 3.88 94 90
Joe Blanton 52.7 225 22.2% 7.1% .293 3.93 3.84 90 90
Koda Glover 49.3 208 24.0% 5.8% .299 4.01 3.83 92 89
Matt Grace 63.7 281 15.7% 8.2% .301 4.10 3.88 94 90
Austin Voth 125.0 567 16.2% 9.5% .301 5.11 5.10 117 119
Oliver Perez 34.7 151 27.2% 9.9% .322 3.89 3.76 89 88
Shawn Kelley 39.7 168 28.6% 7.7% .290 4.08 3.86 93 90
Aaron Barrett 25.3 110 23.6% 9.1% .310 3.55 3.43 81 80
Francisco Rodriguez 38.7 166 22.3% 8.4% .275 4.19 4.27 96 100
Justin Miller 50.0 217 19.4% 7.4% .298 4.32 4.12 99 96
Jefry Rodriguez 76.7 356 15.2% 12.4% .302 5.17 5.02 118 117
Kaleb Fleck 52.0 232 22.8% 11.2% .306 4.50 4.18 103 97
Austin L. Adams 57.0 270 27.4% 20.0% .301 4.58 4.65 105 108
Sammy Solis 41.3 183 23.5% 10.9% .295 4.57 4.49 105 105
Neal Cotts 43.0 189 22.2% 9.0% .298 4.60 4.51 105 105
Tommy Milone 97.3 432 16.0% 6.0% .297 5.36 5.38 123 125
Logan Darnell 81.3 370 13.0% 8.1% .302 5.42 5.31 124 124
Rafael Martin 54.3 240 21.7% 8.8% .303 4.80 4.56 110 106
Cody Satterwhite 49.7 224 18.8% 10.3% .302 4.89 4.81 112 112
Roman Mendez 47.3 215 18.6% 11.2% .298 5.13 5.04 117 117
Joe Nathan 27.0 123 22.0% 11.4% .303 5.33 5.12 122 119
Chris S. Smith 44.0 195 19.0% 7.7% .298 5.32 5.29 122 123
Ryan Brinley 45.3 201 14.9% 6.0% .304 5.16 5.12 118 119
Austen Williams 109.3 499 12.6% 7.8% .306 5.60 5.41 128 126
Tim Collins 27.0 129 20.9% 16.3% .293 5.67 5.90 130 138
Taylor Hill 136.3 618 11.0% 6.3% .303 5.61 5.58 128 130
David Goforth 56.7 265 15.8% 12.8% .302 5.24 5.08 120 118
John Simms 124.7 567 15.3% 8.6% .302 5.70 5.51 130 128
Sean O’Sullivan 96.0 439 13.2% 8.2% .302 5.81 5.67 133 132
Dakota Bacus 71.7 331 15.1% 10.0% .303 5.78 5.63 132 131
Kyle Schepel 51.3 241 19.5% 14.5% .297 5.61 5.57 128 130
Edwin Jackson 94.7 435 17.2% 10.3% .298 5.80 5.47 133 128
Jeremy Guthrie 115.7 533 12.9% 8.1% .309 5.91 5.76 135 134
Greg Ross 118.0 547 11.0% 8.8% .302 5.87 5.83 134 136
Jeff Ames 58.7 279 20.8% 15.8% .299 5.83 5.80 133 135
Braulio Lara 50.3 245 18.4% 15.9% .309 6.26 6.14 143 143
Kyle McGowin 105.3 491 15.1% 10.0% .304 6.24 6.16 143 144
Matt Crownover 108.0 506 13.2% 9.9% .306 6.25 6.09 143 142
Derek Self 56.0 262 13.0% 9.2% .303 6.59 6.30 151 147
Jimmy Cordero 46.7 235 13.6% 17.0% .305 7.14 6.99 163 163
Wirkin Estevez 99.0 477 10.5% 11.5% .303 6.73 6.59 154 154

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 190.7 11.66 2.41 1.09 142 5.1 Roger Clemens
Stephen Strasburg 166.7 10.64 2.16 0.97 133 4.0 Curt Schilling
Gio Gonzalez 172.3 8.46 3.45 0.94 107 2.7 Johnny Vander Meer
Tanner Roark 172.7 7.66 2.87 1.20 101 2.3 Ken Hill
Joe Ross 116.0 7.84 2.41 1.32 99 1.5 Marty Janzen
Ryan Madson 51.3 9.29 2.28 0.70 144 1.3 Mariano Rivera
Sean Doolittle 46.7 11.96 1.74 1.35 131 1.1 Gabe White
Erick Fedde 100.3 7.45 3.05 1.26 93 0.9 Mike LaCoss
Brandon Kintzler 58.0 5.28 2.02 0.78 114 0.9 Dick Coffman
A.J. Cole 137.7 7.26 3.33 1.57 85 0.7 Bob Milacki
Wander Suero 61.7 7.59 3.50 0.88 108 0.6 Jerry Reed
Jaron Long 141.0 5.68 2.11 1.53 84 0.6 Dave Eiland
Trevor Gott 54.0 7.00 3.67 0.50 111 0.6 Ray Herbert
Enny Romero 61.3 9.83 4.11 1.03 105 0.6 Scott Wiegandt
Joe Blanton 52.7 8.54 2.73 1.20 109 0.6 Ted Wilks
Koda Glover 49.3 9.12 2.19 1.28 106 0.5 Julio Mateo
Matt Grace 63.7 6.22 3.25 0.71 104 0.5 Dave Tomlin
Austin Voth 125.0 6.62 3.89 1.37 83 0.5 Steve Falteisek
Oliver Perez 34.7 10.64 3.89 1.04 109 0.4 Norm Charlton
Shawn Kelley 39.7 10.89 2.95 1.59 105 0.4 Stan Belinda
Aaron Barrett 25.3 9.24 3.55 0.71 120 0.4 Jerry Dipoto
Francisco Rodriguez 38.7 8.61 3.26 1.40 101 0.3 Mike Fetters
Justin Miller 50.0 7.56 2.88 1.08 100 0.3 Todd Erdos
Jefry Rodriguez 76.7 6.34 5.17 0.94 82 0.2 Jesus Silva
Kaleb Fleck 52.0 9.17 4.50 1.04 94 0.2 Roy Corcoran
Austin L. Adams 57.0 11.68 8.53 0.79 94 0.2 Clay Bryant
Sammy Solis 41.3 9.36 4.35 1.31 94 0.2 Mike Kinnunen
Neal Cotts 43.0 8.79 3.56 1.47 93 0.2 Rich Rodriguez
Tommy Milone 97.3 6.38 2.40 1.94 80 0.2 Dave Johnson
Logan Darnell 81.3 5.31 3.32 1.44 79 0.1 Jimmy Anderson
Rafael Martin 54.3 8.61 3.48 1.49 88 0.0 Tom Hume
Cody Satterwhite 49.7 7.61 4.17 1.27 87 0.0 Jerry Johnson
Roman Mendez 47.3 7.61 4.56 1.33 84 -0.1 Jamie Emiliano
Joe Nathan 27.0 9.00 4.67 1.67 81 -0.1 Jose Mesa
Chris S. Smith 44.0 7.57 3.07 1.84 81 -0.1 Tony Hudson
Ryan Brinley 45.3 5.96 2.38 1.59 82 -0.1 Eddie Fisher
Austen Williams 109.3 5.19 3.21 1.48 76 -0.2 Jason Karnuth
Tim Collins 27.0 9.00 7.00 1.67 76 -0.2 Kevin Tolar
Taylor Hill 136.3 4.49 2.57 1.65 76 -0.2 Clay Condrey
David Goforth 56.7 6.67 5.40 1.11 81 -0.2 Bucky Brandon
John Simms 124.7 6.28 3.54 1.66 74 -0.3 Paul Miller
Sean O’Sullivan 96.0 5.44 3.38 1.69 73 -0.4 Ricardo Rodriguez
Dakota Bacus 71.7 6.28 4.14 1.63 73 -0.4 Preston Larrison
Kyle Schepel 51.3 8.24 6.14 1.40 76 -0.4 Jake Robbins
Edwin Jackson 94.7 7.13 4.28 1.71 73 -0.4 Russ Ortiz
Jeremy Guthrie 115.7 5.37 3.35 1.71 73 -0.5 Ed Riley
Greg Ross 118.0 4.58 3.66 1.60 72 -0.5 Dana Kiecker
Jeff Ames 58.7 8.90 6.75 1.53 74 -0.5 Jake Robbins
Braulio Lara 50.3 8.05 6.97 1.61 69 -0.6 James Wray
Kyle McGowin 105.3 6.32 4.19 1.97 69 -0.8 Patrick Coogan
Matt Crownover 108.0 5.58 4.17 1.83 68 -0.9 Joe Horgan
Derek Self 56.0 5.46 3.86 2.09 64 -1.0 Steven Rowe
Jimmy Cordero 46.7 6.17 7.71 1.74 60 -1.2 Matt Smith
Wirkin Estevez 99.0 4.55 5.00 1.82 64 -1.3 Mark Woodyard

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2018 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals by Carson Cistulli!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
pilldom
Member
pilldom

Ahhh, I remember like it was yesterday when this glorious machine cited Ted Williams as Bryce’s best comp.

On that note. Doesn’t it seem strange Rendon’s biggest comp is Zelie? Zelie was never worth more than 2.5 WAR. Rendon has eclipsed 4.5 WAR in 3 of the last 4 seasons, hitting 6 WAR in two of them.

Seems like an odd comp between a solid player and an underrated superstar.

montreal
Member
montreal

Absolutely agree on Anthony Rendon. Why does most of the baseball world think he is “fairly good” when it seems obvious that he is an all star. Extremely underrated.

Roger McDowell Hot Foot
Member
Roger McDowell Hot Foot

There really needs to be a better backgrounder on how the hell ZIPS comes up with the comps. Everyone always wants to talk about it in minute detail, and no one but Szymborski seems to understand how it works.