Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/3

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, we’ll start momentarily. Just tweeting a link…

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, happy postseason to all. Let’s chat.

Gary: I’m a Braves fan nervous about everything right now. Should I be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends what ‘everything’ is. They can’t take away the entire farm system, which is quite good, and frankly, people in other front offices don’t think Atlanta has lost a whole hell of a lot here. But it is ugly and this won’t be fun for anyone involved.

Birdlaw Esq: Do you foresee you job as it relates to getting info on J2 guys presigning as about to get much more difficult?

Eric A Longenhagen: If teams are still agreeing to deals well before they’re technically allowed to (which they are) then no.

LegallyEagle: Where does Maitan rank on your list? Is he about to become a FA?

Eric A Longenhagen: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if MLB will make him a free agent but there’s recent precedent for it if they do. Albert Guaimaro and Simon Muzziotti were made FAs after already playing pro ball for the Red Sox. Unless other considerations are made for Maitan and this incident, if MLB finds an infraction they consider similar to what happened with Boston, maybe Maitan hits the open market.

VandyGuy: Any chance that Maitan himself gets punished as a result of the Braves situation?  Sit out a year something like that?

Eric A Longenhagen: I hope not. You’re punishing someone who was probably 14 when this stuff happened.

Rod.: At what level will Luis Robert be assigned to start next season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on how he looks next spring. I’ll guess Kannapolis but that’s purely a guess based on age.

Loren: After another really good year, what are your thoughts on Joey Lucchessi? Could he be a legitimate starting pitcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but I wouldn’t expect much more than a #4/5

LegallyEagle: Will there be a trend of developing players playing multiple positions in order to increase their value, or will this mostly be something players look to only after they’ve faltered in their primary position and want a last shot at making it to majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’ll see more of it. It might not be a blanket aspect of development for all prospects (like I wouldn’t move Amed Rosario around, he’s a SS) but I think positional versatility is a clear part of most top rosters and, especially with prospects on the fringe, it might be a way to extract optimum value. I know I love versatile defenders.

Danny J: If Glasnow were still prospect eligible, where would he slot among starters?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’d probably be a 50 FV at this point just because his stuff is so good that he’d likely be a top 20 reliever if he’s ‘penned.

Danny J: What is Mitch Keller‘s upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: #2

Eric A Longenhagen: realistically, a 2

chrisz: What are your long term projections on Jorge Alfaro? Does he project as a starter next year? Will he stick at catcher long term?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been sky-high on him for a while because you just don’t see catchers with that kind of power, speed or arm strength, let alone all three in concert with one another. I’m frustrated by the lack of progress he’s made and think he still needs defensive cleanup and a better bat path but I remain hopeful.

Wes: Is the situation with the Braves front office only going to strengthen the argument for an International Draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me. You’re punishing poor teenagers for the actions of a shyster baseball executive in that scenario.

Danny J: Greater likelihood.  Peyton Manning is Tennessee’s head coach next year, or Peyton Manning is Tennessee’s junior senator next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Senator. Politics is a cakewalk if your PR is good and Manning’s is. Coaching is tough.

Drew: When guys have velocity like Hunter Greene or Alex Reyes, does that make it easier for them to develop a change? Just because hitters are so geared up for that velo?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmm, good question. I think elite velo can change the way hitters interact with the changeup (like Cole Hamels, Mike Wacha and Stephen Strasburg all have good changeups but they move and miss bats differently) and I think they develop those changeups differently because they had little to no use for them as amateurs (Greene had no use for a change in HS with an elite fastball and two breaking balls) but beyond that I’m not sure

Motown oden: Tigers fan wants to know any Bryant/Correa types in play at 1.1 next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think a handful of guys have a chance to take a step forward into that kind of place, yes. But remember, I’m talking about how those guys were viewed at draft time, not as they’ve panned out. Bryant, remember, went #2, because Houston took Appel and Correa went #1 because of money. He was one of a few guys Houston considered at 1, including Max Fried. So neither Bryant nor Correa were elite, generational draft prospects who were slam dunk #1 picks, but they have turned into those sort of players.

LegallyEagle: Should the Dodgers put Walker Buehler on their playoff roster, or is he needing some rest?

Eric A Longenhagen: If the player feels strong and healthy and you think he can help you have a parade, his ass is on the roster.

Nick: What do you know about Phillies 11th rounder Jake Holmes? I haven’t seen much on him but what I have heard intrigues me.

Eric A Longenhagen: He was on my top 100 draft board: http://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2017mlb&type=0&pos=all

Eric A Longenhagen: Full report there. I like him. Size, straightline speed, power.

Drew: I know you’re pretty anti-draft, is there any real discussion about draft reform, maybe moving to a signing bonus model or something?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not that I’m aware of. Owners want to save money, players want to make it and use amateur player rights as a bargaining chip for their own gain.

Nick: Who’s a high schooler that could shoot up draft boards this Spring a la Austin Beck last year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Beck was off my radar at this time last year, so if there’s a Beck 2, he is also off my radar right now.

seth: Is the Braves fiasco a shot across the bow to all MLB teams? especially after the Red Sox ‘punishment’ didn’t seem to have any effect?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, this is less about practices in Latin America and more about the individual involved.

Drew: Hi Eric, thanks for taking the time to chat every week! With guys like Hoskins and Matt Adams roaming LF, shouldn’t every minor league 1B just play half their time in the OF until its absolutely proven they can’t/shouldn’t? I’m thinking guys like Pavin, Prado, and Evan White would benefit greatly from having some (potential) versatility. Am I underselling what it takes to be a passable OF, did Adam Dunn/Albert Belle ruin my brain?

Eric A Longenhagen: Case-by-case, I agree with you. Hoskins isn’t an OF for me, nor is Adams, but White could be, Smith perhaps. Don’t forget Adam Dunn was a 6 athlete who just got heavy. Hoskins is a 3 athlete, Adams might be a 2.

Mac: Which non-graduated prospect do you see making the biggest impact in the playoffs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jimmy Sherfy

Dominic: Will Wilmer Flores get more at bats as a 1B than Dom Smith in 2018

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, front office would do well to lay out some playing time guidelines to the new staff.

Terry: Your boy Monte Harrison, A+ or AA to start next year? What progress were you most encouraged by?

Eric A Longenhagen: Honestly, I was just psyched that he was healthy all year. I’d start him at Hi-A, move him to Biloxi aggressively if he starts hot.

Matt: Will Raimel Tapia be an everyday outfielder for the Rockies in 2018? Should he?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Transitioning from CarGo to Tapia and reallocating CarGo’s $ to other parts of the roster seems pretty good.

The Other Kyle: What does the Tigers’ Top 10 look like after all the trades?

Eric A Longenhagen: Summer top 10 was here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/updated-top-10-prospect-lists-al-centr…

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s Verlander trade analysis https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-the-tigers-return-for-justin-…

Eric A Longenhagen: Perez slots in behind Manning, Rogers and Daz slot in behind Paredes

Noah: How are you thinking about Jorge Polanco after his excellent second half?

Eric A Longenhagen: Still think he’s a strong utility guy moreso than a regular SS. Nick Gordon cometh.

Anthony: Freicer Perez a reliever?

Eric A Longenhagen: I give him a better chance to start than most other guys that size. He’s already throwing strikes.

Andrew WK: Out of Jorge Ona, Luis Alexander Basabe and Daniel Brito, which one do you think has the best shot at making an All Star team? Which one is most likely to not have a substantial major league career? Thanks for the chat!

Eric A Longenhagen: Q1: Ona

Eric A Longenhagen: Q2: Basabe

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Whose farm system are you looking forward to ranking next season? Has to be the Phillies right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anaheim. It’s like night and day talent-wise down here in Tempe right now. Went from watching guys just to make sure nothing was there to actively scrambling to see a lot of interesting young talent from, especially from Latin America.

Dub: if MLB made Maitan a free agent, what rules is he subject too? International free agency again?

Eric A Longenhagen: If I recall correctly, the Red Sox players re-released into free agency were subject to bonus pool rules -$300k. So the Phillies signed Simon Muzziotti for 750k and only 450 of it counted against their pool. I think that’s correct.

Shawn: Can you tell me anything about Melvin Jimenez from the Dodgers please?  His young age and stat line in low A have me intrigued….but I can’t find anything on him.

Eric A Longenhagen: From July: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-74-an…

Eric A Longenhagen: 94-97, flash a plus breaking ball, undersized body with effort means relief risk. But another good young Dodgers arm.

Sean: Thanks for your hard work Eric. It’s super fun reading your pieces and it makes us better baseball fans.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey, thanks man.

Dub: if you had to win 1 game, what MiLB SP do you run out there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scherzer

James: What kind of upside does Luis Urias have as an MLB player? His batting eye is ridiculously impressive however he has no power and his other tools are all average.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tough to rule out a power spike at MLB level for players like Urias because of the offensive environment in MLB right now. Enough people love him that I feel good about Urias as a big league regular at second base, even without much pop.

Chris: Any September call-up that caught your eye?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not really, at least not anyone who came up and was much better or worse than I thought. Victor Arano‘s stuff was better than it was when I saw him last fall.

Anthony: How flexible are the scouts employed by orgs- i.e., how different are the skillsets in handling high school kids vs. 15 year-old Dominicans vs. 24 year-olds in AAA? Can most people handle all of those if given enough time, or are there people whose talents are specifically geared to one area or another?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was actually talking about this with a scout this week. Some teams’ amateur scouts see a narrow band of baseball quality, seeing amateurs and low-level rookie leagues post-draft and nothing more. Others see a wider array of baseball but perhaps not enough big league ball to see what the finished product looks like.

Brandon Johnson: What do you expect from Mitchell White next season? Could he be in line for a Buehler type season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is good but not THAT good.

Mac: When will we find out special postseason fangraphs chat schedule?

Eric A Longenhagen: Asking Cameron right now…

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll let you know what I find out. Until then, let’s rapid fire for another 10 min or so. Rockies instrux start today and they play few games so that’s my priority hoy. No offense.

Dunt: What grade would you Nolan Gorman’s power? How does his profile compare to Joey Gallo coming out?

Eric A Longenhagen: 50 raw right now, so nowhere near Gallo.

Trixie: Padres are talking about Tatis hitting the majors in late 2018.  Is this even remotely realistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but I wouldn’t call it likely.

Steven: Is it possible that Cole Ragans breaks the top 100 list at some point next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hell yeah

M.D. Pepper : What are your thoughts on Preston Hartsell or Corona Del Mar HS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge raw power but I doubt he hits

Batflips for BB: Is Kingery really worth shipping out Cesar for? I tend to rely more on “proven” MLB players.

Eric A Longenhagen: Right but the question isn’t just about which of those two is better, it’s is Kingery + return for Hernandez > Hernandez + return for Kingery. There’s a Door #3 that involves moving one of them to a different position (they’ve tried it with Hernandez already and it didn’t take)

Billy : My favorite breakout player this year is Franchy Cordero. What do you think of him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Has long had big time tools that have played down in games because he isn’t the most instinctive ballplayer

Big Joe Mufferaw: Why don’t the Pirates just “Betances” Glasnow? Very similar pitchers, and it worked out pretty well for yankees

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, but I also get Pittsburgh giving him every opportunity to figure it out because, if he does, he’s a monster.

James: Do you think Fernando Tatis, Jr starts next year in AA? It seemed really aggressive to push him there this year but he seemingly did well there as the year came to a close.

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, Lake Elsinore would only serve as a launching pad. And if he fails early at Double-A, that’s good. He hasn’t had to deal with failure yet, an aggressive push might be the only way he’s exposed to it before he arrives in San Diego and is anointed as the franchise savior.

Corey: Quick no thinking,  top your head 2018 Rookies of the Year are???

Eric A Longenhagen: Acuna, Otani

Moltar: Are you going to be chatting all offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yerp, ervry tuersday

dan: How does a team find and develop the next Mike Trout?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sell the scouting director’s soul to satan?

Carter: Is there any chance Brendan McKay playing two ways will push the Reds to try out Hunter Greene two ways?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah

Brandon M: Which toolsy  outfielder from Georgia with questions about their hit tool will the Rangers take in the 2018 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know but I bet I’m in on that player, too.

Mark: Do you think CF arm strength is being overrated? Donnie Dewees seems to be a good defender there but he gets dinged for arm strength, when there have been plenty of +DRS defenders in CF that haven’t had great arms. For instance, Lorenzo Cain grades out negative in ARM

Eric A Longenhagen: ARM doesn’t measure arm strength, it measures runs prevented by runners failing to advance. Actual arm strength is of some import in CF and those without the requisite strength don’t play there and are selected out of the CF sample, so CF’ers with comparatively poor arms have at least passed the pass/fail portion of the arm strength exam. Dewees has a 3 arm. Ben Revere’s arm is part of why he couldn’t play as much CF as his speed would ordinarily allow, so there’s precedent for something like this.

Moltar: If you were given unilateral control over MLB with no need to collectively bargain, how would you handle international signings? True, unbridled free agency?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not foolish/conceited enough to offer up a solution in chat. It would undoubtedly be flawed. I’m for what’s best for the players and scouts in generally all situations.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay, playoff chats: Jeff and Travis are doing the AL Wild Card game tonight, Cameron is doing the NL Wild Card game tomorrow. Formal announcement will be made soon.

Boxkutter: I know you have many days you go to games all day long. Does your wife ever go with you? How much does she watch/enjoy baseball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jill comes along maybe once a month, always to an AZL or instructional league game where she can bring snacks and beer. She doesn’t especially like baseball or sports in general.

J.D: Early thoughts on #Cubs Nelson Velazquez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Power, sneaky straightline speed, very (I’d say detrimentally) aggressive

Babe Lincoln: Who is the most boom/bust prospect in MiLB now?  That is, who has the largest gap between his (realistic) floor and his (realistic) ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmmm, Josh Lowe?

Angels fan: How’s Brandon Marsh looking in instructs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty good.

Colt Holt: Is there a smarter player in all of baseball than Joey Votto, who can pinpoint his weakness and literally take it away? If you could give Votto’s smarts to one prospect, who would it be, and what would they be fixing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Votto is amazing. Give his plate discipline to Austin Hays.

Johnny: Am I crazy to be skeptical of Jose Siri? He raised his walk rate to 6% this season but the K/BB is still atrocious. As a Reds fan it’s frustrating to see so many big tools/no walk guys flame out of that system

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I like Siri’s tools but I’m similarly apprehensive.

Rick: Why are you so easily offended?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think your Sensitivity Detector is broken, dude. I’m sipping coffee and chatting with readers with no salt or offense on my end.

Babe Lincoln: How much baseball did you play back in the day?  And how much does having played help with being a good scout?

Eric A Longenhagen: Very little (I was lazy, overweight and thought I knew more than our high school coach)

RAH RAH: Oops, Eric, the question was which Minor League pitcher do you throw in a must win game.

Eric A Longenhagen: Honeywell

Jesse: Are you not aware that Peyton Manning committed sexual assault?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m aware. Are you aware of who the president is?

Eric A Longenhagen: All bets are off, Jesse. The host of the Apprentice is the president. Jaleel White for congress!

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I went a bit over and need to get going. Thanks for coming, see you next week.