Archive for 2017 Trade Value

Projecting the Prospects Traded on Friday Night

Three minor-ish trades went down on Friday night. The Mets acquired A.J. Ramos from the Marlins for Merandy Gonzalez and Ricardo Cespedes; the Nationals acquired Howie Kendrick from the Phillies for McKenzie Mills; the Orioles acquired Jeremy Hellickson from the Phillies for Garrett Cleavinger and Hyun Soo Kim.  Below are the projections for the prospects who changed hands. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

None of the players dealt last night are top prospects, and as a result, their likelihood of outcomes graphs are heavily skewed towards “no MLB”. Kyle Glaser recently found that fewer than one in five prospects traded at the deadline contribute more than one positive WAR season. All three of these pitchers seem like good bets to fall into that bottom four-fifths.

Read the rest of this entry »


Scouting New Braves Prospect Huascar Ynoa

A few days after trade conversation between Minnesota and Atlanta regarding Jaime Garcia became public, the two clubs reached a deal that sent Garcia and Catasauqua High School graduate, C Anthony Recker, to the Twins in exchange for 19-year-old Dominican righty, Huascar Ynoa.

Twins get

  • LHP Jaime Garcia
  • C Anthony Recker
  • Cash Considerations

Braves get

  • RHP Huascar Ynoa

Ynoa ranked 22nd on the Twins list over the offseason. I saw him last fall during instructional league, during which he sat 89-94 with a sinking fastball while flashing an above-average curveball. This year, Ynoa’s arm slot has been raised a bit and he’s throwing harder, sitting more comfortably in the 90s and touching 95 or 96. A person from an org not involved with the deal told me they had Ynoa averaging close to 94 mph with his fastball during a start with Elizabethton this year.

Ynoa has displayed some feel for creating movement on his changeup, as well, though at times he shows clear arm deceleration. The curveball is much more likely to drive Ynoa’s ascent through the minor leagues, but I like his chances of developing a viable cambio. I also saw what looked like some bad, low-80s sliders last fall, though they might have just been curveballs Ynoa couldn’t get on top of, something pitchers with lower arm slots often struggle to do.

While an inherently risky prospect because of his proximity to the majors (Ynoa had made a half-dozen Appalachian League starts before the trade, and is still a 40 FV for me based on his distance from the majors), he has the makings of two above-average pitches, an average third, and enough strike-throwing ability to remain a starter. He’s not one of the sexier prospects in a loaded Braves farm system but a nice, low-level flier with a chance to max out as a league-average starter.

Age 19 Height 6’3 Weight 215 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
50/55 40/45 50/55 45/50 40/50

Dave Cameron 2017 Trade Value Chat

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Friday, everyone.

12:01
Dave Cameron: While Wednesday’s site outage kept me from chatting mid-week, this works out better anyway, as I can now answer questions about the whole list.

12:02
Dave Cameron: We’ll focus primarily on the Trade Value series, but I’m sure there are plenty of Jose Quintana questions too, so we’ll work those in.

12:02
Dave Cameron: And maybe some other deadline stuff.

12:02
Mike: Is the only thing keeping Judge from being #1 another 3 months of sample size?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Well, depends on what he does in those next three months. If he puts up another +5 WAR second half, then yeah, he might fight Correa for the top spot. If he turns into something closer to what the projections are forecasting, then he’s probably still not cracking the top five. Keep in mind, he’s as old as Trout is.

Read the rest of this entry »


2017 Trade Value: #1 to #10

The comparisons to Alex Rodriguez are neither fair nor entirely misplaced.
(Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

Welcome to the final installment of this year’s Trade Value series; you can find links to the previous five posts above. If you’re not familiar with this project, there’s an explanation of the process in the HM post, so that’s the best place to start.

As a reminder for those who don’t like clicking links, however, the five-year WAR projections are based on Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS forecasts, though the players aren’t ranked based on those projections; these figures are included merely as a piece of information to help round out the picture. The guaranteed-dollars line measures the amount of money the player is owed outside of team options or arbitration years; for most of these guys, team options are very likely to be exercised, and many of them will end up making more than the guaranteed-dollars number reports.

Now let’s turn our attention to today’s top 10. In reality, this ended up being two groups of five, with plenty of room for movement within those two groups. And at the very top of the list was the toughest call I’ve ever had to make in putting this project together. The amount of great young talent in the game right now is simply remarkable.

Just as a note: I’ll be chatting about this list at 12 p.m. ET, so if you have any questions, feel free to swing by and I’ll answer as many as I can. Now, on to the top 10.

Team Control WAR Total +19.4
Guaranteed Dollars $23.5 M
Team Control Through 2021
Previous Rank #18
Year Age Projected WAR Contract Status
2018 32 +5.4 $10.5 M
2019 33 +5.0 $13.0 M
2020 34 +4.5 $13.5 M
2021 35 +4.5 $14.0 M
Team Option

Corey Kluber was already amazing. He might actually be getting better, though. His strikeout rate has jumped from 26% to 34%. His ground-ball rate is at a career high, but so is his infield-fly rate. He still throttles contact quality. With the way he’s pitching now, he’s in that next tier of non-Kershaw starters. He’s everything you want in an ace.

Read the rest of this entry »


2017 Trade Value: #11 to #20

Freddie Freeman has been worth seven wins in 115 games since being omitted from last year’s series.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

Welcome to the fifth installment of this year’s Trade Value series; you can find links to the previous four posts above. If you’re not familiar with this project, there’s an explanation of the process in the HM post, so that’s the best place to start.

As a reminder for those who don’t like clicking links, however, the five-year WAR projections are based on Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS forecasts, though the players aren’t ranked based on those projections; these figures are included merely as a piece of information to help round out the picture. The guaranteed-dollars line measures the amount of money the player is owed outside of team options or arbitration years; for most of these guys, team options are very likely to be exercised, and many of them will end up making more than the guaranteed-dollars number reports.

Now let’s turn our attention to today’s 10 players, as we get ever so close to the top 10.

Read the rest of this entry »


2017 Trade Value: #21 to #30

The existence of Jose Altuve illustrates the difference between the improbable and the impossible.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

 
Welcome to the fourth installment of this year’s Trade Value series; you can find links to the previous three posts above. If you’re not familiar with this project, there’s an explanation of the process in the HM post, so that’s the best place to start.

As a reminder for those who don’t like clicking links, however, the five-year WAR projections are based on Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS forecasts, though the players aren’t ranked based on those projections; these figures are included merely as a piece of information to help round out the picture. The guaranteed-dollars line measures the amount of money the player is owed outside of team options or arbitration years; for most of these guys, team options are very likely to be exercised, and many of them will end up making more than the guaranteed-dollars number reports.

Now let’s turn our attention to today’s 10 players.

Team Control WAR Total +13.9
Guaranteed Dollars
Team Control Through 2021
Previous Rank #49
Year Age Projected WAR Contract Status
2018 26 +3.2 Pre-Arb
2019 27 +3.5 Arb1
2020 28 +3.6 Arb2
2021 29 +3.6 Arb3
Pre-Arb
Arb

If Jon Gray pitched in any other stadium in baseball, he’d probably be considered one of the game’s best young hurlers by now. With premium velocity and a very good slider, he profiles as a guy who can miss bats and manage contact well enough, and if his command takes a step forward, there’s ace potential here.

Read the rest of this entry »


2017 Trade Value: #31 to #40

Noah Syndergaard could reasonably appear basically anywhere on this list. (Photo: Keith Allison)

Welcome to the third installment of this year’s Trade Value series; you can see the links to the honorable mentions and the last 10 guys in the list in the toolbar above. If you’re not familiar with this project, there’s an explanation of the process in the HM post, so that’s the best place to start.

As a reminder for those who don’t like clicking links, however, the five-year WAR projections are based on Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS forecasts, though the players aren’t ranked based on those projections; these figures are included merely as a piece of information to help round out the picture. The guaranteed-dollars line measures the amount of money the player is owed outside of team options or arbitration years; for most of these guys, team options are very likely to be exercised, and many of them will end up making more than the guaranteed-dollars number reports.

No need to delay any further; let’s look at the 10 guys who made today’s cut.

Team Control WAR Total +17.7
Guaranteed Dollars
Team Control Through 2021
Previous Rank #31
Year Age Projected WAR Contract Status
2018 24 +4.2 Arb1
2019 25 +4.6 Arb2
2020 26 +4.5 Arb3
2021 27 +4.5 Arb4
Arb

If this was just Dave’s Top 50 Franchise Players or something, Russell might not be on this list. I’ve maintained some skepticism over the years about his eventual offensive upside, given his moderate power and low contact rates. His poor start to 2017 isn’t helping the idea that the bat is headed in the right direction. But feedback from friends in the game suggested that his stock within MLB is still pretty high, with multiple reminders that this is a guy who put up +7 WAR at ages 21-22, and he doesn’t need to crush the ball to be an elite player given his defense.

Read the rest of this entry »


2017 Trade Value: #41 to #50

The question of Jose Quintana’s trade value isn’t merely an academic one. (Photo: Keith Allison)

 
It’s that time of year again: baseball is taking most of the week off to host an exhibition game, and we’re ranking the 50 most valuable trade chips in baseball while they do so. If you aren’t familiar with the series, go read the honorable-mentions post, which includes the introduction and an explanation of what this whole thing is.

As one additional point of explanation, the tables that we’re including below show a few pieces of information: the years remaining before the player is eligible for free agency, whether those years are covered by the arbitration system or a multi-year contract, the guaranteed money owed to the player if a long-term deal is in place, and the ZiPS projections for the player for each year that he’s under control of his current club. The ZiPS forecasts are there to help you get an idea for what one forecasting system thinks of the player’s long-term future, though the players are not ranked solely based on these projections. At the end of the post, we’ll summarize each individual player’s information box with a grid showing all the players ranked in the series so far, and that grid includes the same reference information.

With that said, let’s get right to the guys who made the final 10 spots on the Trade Value list this year.

Team Control WAR Total +8.0
Guaranteed Dollars
Team Control Through 2020
Previous Rank #47
Year Age Projected WAR Contract Status
2018 27 +2.6 Arb1
2019 28 +2.7 Arb2
2020 29 +2.6 Arb3
Arb

This last spot was really tough. There are so many players you could put here, with probably 10 to 15 guys having just as strong a case as Lamb for this spot. Even just within third baseman, you could make a case for Justin Turner or Kyle Seager, and then there are all the other good players at other positions who didn’t quite make the cut. If you feel strongly that some other player should be No. 50, I probably don’t disagree with you. Rounding out the list turned into an exercise of picking one of many similarly valuable players.

Read the rest of this entry »


2017 Trade Value: Honorable Mentions

Any trade would automatically allow Clayton Kershaw to opt out of his deal. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

 
Welcome to All-Star week, which around here means it’s once again time for our annual Trade Value series. I’ve been doing this project now for 13 years, dating back to 2005, and have been doing it here since 2008. The project has grown in scope over time, but thanks to help from friends like Dan Szymborski and Sean Dolinar, I think the current presentation is as good as it’s ever been.

For those new to the series, the list is an attempt to answer the question of who would bring back the most in trade for his team if he were to be put on the market and made available before the deadline. Because different teams have varying resources and roster needs, we’re not saying that if one player is ranked ahead of another player, the team with the lower-ranked player would make a one-for-one swap for the higher-ranked player; there are some teams that will put more of a premium on short-term value while others who are looking to maximize long-term potential, and salary is a larger factor for some organizations than others. Of course, every team would love to have a player who contributes both now and in the future, and does so without consuming a large part of their budget; guys who check all of those boxes will rank at the very top of this list.

Read the rest of this entry »