Archive for Chat

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/19/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Congratulations to the Red Sox, who are very good

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: So long to the Astros, who were very good

9:07

Phil: Best defeat over the past two days: POSTSEASON NARRATIVES.

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if it’s some kind of contrarian instinct or what, but I always, without fail, root for the players to turn those stories upside down. Very happy for David Price

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 10/18/18

2:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, everyone. Time to chat.

2:01
RS: Giants catcher in the AFL, Matt Winn, profile good enough to be a major league backup?

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Several caveats when evaluating AFL catchers: they’re probably tired, they’re catching a whole new staff of guys, they’re catching once or twice a week. So the error bar around evals of catchers here is greater. Having said that, I’d answer your question with a ‘no’

2:03
Jay: Should the A’s let Lowrie walk and give Barreto a shot at 2B, or trade Barreto for pitching?

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: I’d hold onto Barreto

2:03
Pip: Who’s the better prospect moving forward, the National’s, or the Phillies’ Luis Garcia?

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/18/18

12:03
Jay Jaffe: Hey hey, folks. Welcome to another edition of my October chat. Forgive me for being a bit late and a bit frazzled. The impact of this crazy-ass postseason on the Jaffe-Span household — late nights and an accommodating but not entirely unforgiving 2-year-old — is taking its toll. We’ll see if I can give you a few good innings, though.

12:03
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Two teams are a win away from the World Series. Which is more likely to choke?

12:06
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you can throw a choke label on a team up 3-2 losing the final two games on the road in the same way that you could with regards to a team up 3-1 with the cushion of going home even if they lose Game 5.

But I’m not really a fan of the term “choke” in general. These are four excellent teams with strengths and weaknesses and very skilled players who nonetheless have their vulnerabilities. The routes they take may confuse us but I’ve seen enough baseball that no outcome from among the remaining series would surprise me.

12:07
stever20: why is Kershaw so hot and cold in the playoffs these last 3 years?  When he’s great like yesterday he’s great (1.13 ERA last 3 years).  When he’s bad, he’s awful(7.63 ERA last 3 years).

12:09
Jay Jaffe: Why does anyone have good days and bad days? How the hell does any pitcher survive throwing the ball hard a hundred or so times a night to various locations while avoiding discernable patterns against skilled hitters outfitted with incredible means of decoding those patterns?

Baseball is hard. That’s why Kershaw, Price and anybody else in October struggles at times.

12:09
Wes: Bregman or Benintendi over the next 10 years?

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 10/17/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Good morning, and welcome to a special Wednesday edition of chats with Meg!

12:00
Meg Rowley: Who else is tired? I feel tired!

12:00
machado: Do you think Machado’s actions the last two nights will impact his free agency value?

12:01
Meg Rowley: I do not.

12:02
Meg Rowley: I think he should stop being a bonehead, especially if his preferred method of being a bonehead puts him the neighborhood of potentially injuring other players on the field, but in the end he’s very good at baseball.

12:02
Meg Rowley: Lot of dudes who get up to boneheaded stuff end up with big contracts.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/16/18

2:12

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay and the weird day but I’ll be traveling tomorrow so here we are. Still working on some projects behind the scenes that you guys will see soon. Have some preliminary FA projections (105 of them!) if you guys are into that, starting work on prospect lists, doing some work on THE BOARD and new features with Sean Dolinar, podcast is coming weekly and working on some research for the THT annual and some stuff with Craig Edwards that will be coming in the next week or two that I think you’ll really like. Warning: we will quantify everything, even the stuff you don’t want us to.

2:12

Tommy N.: How much do you think Eovaldi gets this offseason? 3 years $40M?

2:12

Kiley McDaniel: My guess was 3/45 at first blush, so yeah something like that

2:13

Nate: How do scouts balance the “eye test” and analytics when evaluating talent?

2:15

Kiley McDaniel: Well that’s about a 5,000 word article if we’re breaking down both how the execs and scouts do it. In short, scouts are instructed by most teams to avoid analytics and allows the professionals in the office to apply them, since some scouts will see tiny sample size hitter split data and apply that info incorrectly and skew the report, for instance. In reality, most teams show scouts exit velos and spin rates so they aren’t in the dark, but they generally don’t know how to use it, so they’re given very basic instructions like “round up if the curveball spin rate is x and you graded it y but it’s a borderline grade,” and stuff like that. On the amateur side it’s almost not used at all by scouts other than the basic stuff you can see like this college hitter is striking out 30% of the time, we all know that’s bad.

2:15

GPT: Updated thoughts on Giants front office search?

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/15/18

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Noon: A Time for Chats

12:00
Bear32: Buxton?  What’s going on?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Well, besides injuries, I don’t have the foggiest clue.

12:01
Jim Leyland Palmer: With taking a step back in his second year and his colossal struggles this postseason, has your outlook on Cody Bellinger changed?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Tempered slightly (the year, not the small sample of six specific games), but not really changed.

12:02
Dan Szymborski: Nobody thought that 143 OPS+ was a baseline that he’d only go up from. A step back was expected.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/12/18

9:04

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04

stever20: what do you make of the Dodgers having Urias on the LCS roster?

9:05

Jeff Sullivan: So the word is out that Urias is on the roster to replace Alexander. Both, of course, are left-handed

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: I think in one sense there’s a general disappointment that Alexander hasn’t been better. He’s a guy with an awful big platoon split. Urias isn’t so good against lefties, but he’s better against righties, and even though he had something of a lost season he might well currently have the fresher arm

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Little doubt that, at or around 100%, Urias should be a more effective pitcher than Alexander is

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/11/18

4:02
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, welcome to a postseason off-day edition of my chat. Frankly, Ii’m a little relieved not to have a baseball game  for the second night in a row because of how out-of-whack my sleep schedule and that of the rest of my household (baseball-editing wife and two-year-old toddler) is.

4:02
Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a big NLCS preview-ish type thing going up tomorrow morning that explores some of the contrasts between the Brewers and Dodgers. It’s by no means comprehensive, but it sure is long!

4:02
kderg: How much do you believe that the Yankees thought Monday night’s game started at 8? On the one hand, someone must have double checked. On the other hand Severino’s late warmup, Gary’s fingernails were unpainted in the first, Gardner wasn’t wearing metal cleats in the first.

4:03
Jay Jaffe: I don’t believe there was any mistake regarding the time. This is a non-story.

4:04
Jay Jaffe: Boone made plenty of mistakes during the ALDS, some of which he wasn’t very clear about explaining the thought process behind in pre- and postgame interviews. He has said that he had no issue with Severino’s warm-up time, and on that note, I have no reason to doubt him.

4:05
Bruce: What kind of a contract would Stanton get if he was a FA this year?

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 10/11/2018

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Oh, hi there. Welcome to today’s chat. I’ll get right to it.

2:02
Tumbler, Whiskey: Hi Eric, thanks for the time today. Are Kristian Robinson and Geraldo Perdomo the two best prospects in the Diamondbacks’ system?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I woudn’t have Perdomo all the way up there, he’s still behind guys like  Jazz, Varsho, Dup, Thomas…but he is a good prospect. Kristian, you already know.

2:04
JJ: Just seen Santiago Espinal has been sent to the AFL – thoughts on him as a prospect?

2:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Fall League disclaimer: It’s early and I might change my mind on these guys over the next six weeks. Think Espinal is probably an org guy.

2:05
Daniel: Were there any exciting names in Cubs extended or AZL? Reivaj looks interesting (and not just b/c the of the name)

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/10/18

12:15

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from Florida! Think I just saw my last instructional league game yesterday, have a podcast and big Victor Mesa article both going up later today, we’ve already started work on offseason lists and new features for THE BOARD

12:15

RS: How do you scout for useful spin rate? Trackman just provides raw spin rate, but not all 3000 RPMs are equal.

12:16

Kiley McDaniel: Well you wouldn’t be scouting at that point, that’s data analysis. But if a curveball has a huge raw spin rate and also really big movement, then you can assume there’s a good ratio of useful spin. You either need a fancy camera or Rapsodo to know useful spin and neither is really practical in game situations.

12:16

Rbrewers : No love for  Brandon Howlett on the board? He’s looked great as a pro for the Red Sox so far.

12:17

Kiley McDaniel: Big swing and miss issues this spring, but he may end up on there when we do the Red Sox list

12:17

Ryan: Hey Kiley, what do you think of Dbacks shortstop prospects Geraldo Perdomo and Blaze Alexander? Thank you!

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 10/9/18

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

2:00
Meg Rowley: It feels strange to chat without the help and humor of my colleagues but I guess we must soldier on.

2:00
Nate: Angel Hernandez’s performance last definitely hurts his lawsuit, does it not?

2:02
Meg Rowley: Obviously, I don’t know anything more about his case or claim than what has been reported, but I think it is important to remember that his poor performance does not mean that he couldn’t have faced discrimination. I would hope (and imagine) that whatever judge or arbiter is hearing his case will approach it more dispassionately than sports fans watching a playoff game.

2:02
CamdenWarehouse: As we sit here watching Osuna pitch, do you get any sense that MLB has heard people about DV suspensions and post season play? Any chance of a change coming?

2:03
Meg Rowley: I don’t have a sense of how the league office is viewing this, or how much of the discourse online has gotten to them or the union.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/8/18

11:59
Dan Szymborski: Noon: A Time for Chats

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Let’s have some fun travelling an hour farther on the road between the cradle and the grave.

12:00
J: Wander Franco: the next Juan Soto?

12:00
Dan Szymborski: How did this Wander Franco meme start?

12:00
Matthew: What teams do you think do the best scouting amatuer talent?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: It’s a difficult question as I’d be judging more results than the individual abilities of the scouts on each team. I’m not as connected with individual scouts, I think that’s a McDongenhagen question.

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Division Series Live Chat – 10/5/18

1:59
Jay Jaffe: Hello folks, and welcome to a day of baseball madness, with four Division Series games piled high starting with the Indians and Astros at 2 PM. I’m the starter today, not the opener. Hopefully I’ll be able to give you several good innings of delightful commentary.

1:59
Klubot: How much of a factor do you think Kluber’s hard hit % will be today? His rate this year is his career high

2:01
Jay Jaffe: I’m less worried about Kluber’s hard hit rate and more worried by the fact that his 7.7% drop in K rate was the majors’ largest for anybody with 150 innings last year and this one. Number two on that list? Kershaw, with a drop of 5.9%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/season-stat-grid?position=P&seasonSt…. Both are still excellent pitchers, and perhaps the hard-hit rate for Kluber is  as indicative of a decline as the K rate is, but the rest of his numers say he’s still a vary valuable pitcher.

2:02
TJF1777: Have the Yankees ever played the Red Sox in the playoffs? Didn’t see any articles on it this week

2:02
Jay Jaffe: I can’t tell if you have the sarcasm font on or not, but to answer you in earnest: three times, all in the ALCS: 1999, 2003 and 2004.

2:02
BK: I’m just a sad Braves’ fan looking to watch some more baseball and wallow in my sorrows

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AL Wild Card Live Chat

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NL Wild Card Live Chat

7:49
Carson Cistulli: Hello. The chat will begin in earnest momentarily. Dan Szymborski will be here. Maybe Craig Edwards. Possibly other writers. Also possibly not them.

7:49
Carson Cistulli: In the meantime, please consider responding to a poll.

7:50
Carson Cistulli:

Are you “stoked” about tonight’s Wild Card Game?

Yes, obviously. (34.7% | 59 votes)
 
No, I am dead inside. (11.7% | 20 votes)
 
I’m dead inside, but I’m still stoked. (53.5% | 91 votes)
 

Total Votes: 170
7:57
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: What are the drinking game rules for today?

7:58
Carson Cistulli: Drink anytime you want but also employ reason while doing so.

7:58
bosoxforlife: Couldn’t care less who wins but can’t wait for the game to start.

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Game 163s Live Chat Jubilee Event

12:49
Craig Edwards: Hello everyone. Chat/Live Blog to begin shortly. Feel free to load up the queue.

12:50
Craig Edwards:

Who are you rooting for in the early game?

Brewers (75.6% | 267 votes)
 
Cubs (24.3% | 86 votes)
 

Total Votes: 353
12:55
Craig Edwards: Just so everyone is aware, the game is on ESPN, so plan accordingly.

12:58
Dave: Odds we see Josh Hader if the Brewers are down 3+?

12:58
Craig Edwards: 10%? If the team is down three, you are probably going to want multiple innings from him tomorrow, which would preclude an appearance today.

1:00
5 Run Homer: I’d just like to say that MLB is very rude for scheduling these games while I have assignments to do and classes to attend. Why can’t they cater to my specific needs?

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 10/1/18

11:23

Kiley McDaniel: Apologies for the delay, ran late on a scout call

11:24

Kiley McDaniel: We’re chatting at this odd time since I’m traveling this week and we have day baseball today in 90 minutes

11:25

Kiley McDaniel: I’ve been around instructs this week — ATL, DET, TOR, NYY, TB, BOS — and put out the most recent podcast last week: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-audio-presents-the-untitled-…

11:25

Kiley McDaniel: we also have a new prospect land page where you can find all of our content: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/

11:26

waks: does nick senzel’s bout of vertigo do anything to his projections? i forget how nick esasky dealt with it, but can it be a recurring thing?

11:26

Kiley McDaniel: don’t have a ton of experience with this in baseball, so we’re just assuming he returns back to where he was until there’s evidence to the contrary

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/28/18

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Our final Friday baseball chat of the regular season

9:08

stever20: How concerned should Red Sox fans be with Chris Sale and his velocity the other night?  Was he just holding back?

Also, do you remember a bigger x factor type of situation entering the playoffs as we have Sale this year?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: This is what’s being referred to: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=a…

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty massive drop-off since Sale came off the disabled list

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/27/18

12:01
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to the latest edition of my Thursday chat. It’s tending towards chaos here at my palatial Brooklyn estate because I’ve overextended myself a bit, with a piece on the season and Hall of Fame chances of Zack Greinke (a chat suggestion from last week, I believe), a podcast appearance, and a much-needed haircut in anticipation of my appearance on MLB Networks’s MLB Now tomorrow from 4-5 PM. So I’m going to keep this a bit brief, but let’s get the show on the road…

12:03
stever20: how worried should Red Sox fans be with the velocity of Sale?

12:06
Jay Jaffe: Honestly, it’s really tough to judge. The raw numbers (from Brooks Baseball) are rather frightening:

BOS@BAL (8/12/18) 98.17
TOR@BOS (9/11/18) 96.19
NYN@BOS (9/16/18) 94.38
BOS@CLE (9/21/18) 93.47
BAL@BOS (9/26/18) 90.21

On the other hand, there’s been virtually nothing at stake for the Red Sox in the games Sale has pitched in since his return; the playoff berth, the division and the top seed were more or less secure by that point, and it’s understandable that he wouldn’t push himself to the max instead of just getting his work in. That’s the real question — was he deliberately throwing with less than full effort? Given his history of wearing down late in the year, if I’m a Sox fan I’m hoping that’s the case, because otherwise, they may have a problem.

12:06
natsfan: So you think Bauer makes CLE rotation for 1st round against the Astros?

12:09
Jay Jaffe: yes, I think so. FWIW, his velo in his last start (avg four-seamer 93.78 mph per Brooks) was down about 1.5 mph relative to his last pre-injury start, but we know what a scientist he is when it comes to this sort of thing. I wouldn’t worry.

12:09
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Does deGrom or Baez have a chance at NL MVP, or has Yelich iced it by now?

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 9/26

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe, where the heat just won’t quit.

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: I have two links for you

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: The first is our updated draft rankings which shifted based on the summer festivities on the Cape, showcases, etc.  http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fall-equinox-draft-board-update/

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: The next is https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects which is where you can find all our prospect resources in one place.

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: I think I might be having some technical issues with the chat software right now, so please be patient if there’s a gap between responses today as I might be playing with stuff to try to get things running smoothly.

12:07
GPT: Are you still going to be visiting Giants camp during fall instrux even though they won’t be playing games?

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