Archive for Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/19/18

12:02
Jay Jaffe: Howdy folks, and welcome to today’s chat. It’s been said in connection with Ted Williams’ final game that “Gods do not answer letters” — that’s John Updike, in his famous New Yorker piece — but somebody on high has brought us color footage of his final home run and highlights from his final game. Don’t miss this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/sports/ted-williams-film-last-game….

12:03
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Brad Hand and Adam Cimber for Francisco Mejia. Discuss.

12:04
Jay Jaffe: I joked on Twitter that the entirety of my analysis beyond recalling that Mejia had a 50-game hitting streak two years ago was Jeff Spicoli saying, “Hola, Mr. Hand”

12:05
Jay Jaffe: That’s from Fast Times at Ridgemont High, a staple of my teenage and early adult viewing, and a movie that you damn millennials (stands up from lawn chair and shakes cane) probably know nothing about. Well, rent it on your electric sousamaphones!

12:06
Jay Jaffe: Seriously, Mejia is a very nice get, and as a non-prospect guy I’ve never heard of Cimber. You’re probably better off asking Eric or Kiley about that and about how much catching Mejia will do going forward, though I’d bet the Padres will give him every chance to stick there.

12:06
Jkim: Shouldn’t the Dodgers look to trade someone like Toles & obviously Forsythe for bullpen help?

THey’d need to add a prospect to sweeten the deal obviously.

Idk how the trade will work out but I think Oh could be a good addition to their bullpen

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/18/18

12:09

Kiley McDaniel: Hello and welcome to this baseball chat. First some links

12:09

Kiley McDaniel: Eric wrote about how African American players stood out at the Futures Game and also in the 2019 draft class and what that could mean: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-futures-game-was-black/

12:10

Kiley McDaniel: And I’m currently going through the annual trade value rankings, with 21 thru 30 likely getting posted during this chat: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-31-to-40/

12:10

Tony Womack: Sanchez’s WAR projections seemed low. Would his ranking differ if he was projected 3-4 WAR?

12:11

Kiley McDaniel: Struck me as a little low as well. The WAR figures for catchers impact the rankings the least, since they don’t include framing and the non-WAR abilities that catchers bring to the table (handling a staff, mental game, etc.) are the most notable of any other position.

12:11

Sats: Is Victor Victor Mesa a potential top 25 prospect, and what kind of grades would you put on his tools

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/17/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Good morning all, and welcome to the chat!

12:01
Meg Rowley: As I mentioned last week, there is likely to be a bit of shifting around with the Tuesday schedule in the weeks to come so that we aren’t doubling up on chats.

12:01
Meg Rowley: But until then, here I am!

12:01
Waltharius: Why would LAD need Machado? They have enough hitting in Taylor at SS, and Turner at 3B

12:03
Meg Rowley: It allows them to move on from Forsythe. Heyman had a tweet on how they’d shift around the infield and I imagine it’s pretty close to what you’d see.

12:03
Rox Rox Purple Sox: Rockies have a ton of infield prospects in the pipeline (Bregman, Hampson, Welker). Do you think those guys factor into a decision to resign LeMahieu this year, or are they too far away?

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/18

2:00
Dan Szymborski: And we are here!

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Maybe.

2:00
Dan Szymborski: I made the chat myself so it may not actually be working and each and everyone of you is already dead.

2:00
The Decadent Moose: Since last June…

2:02
Go A’s!: What is Miguel Sano still doing in the minors?  How is this going to shake out?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: They’re taking their time, realistically speaking the 2018 season is over, so they’re being cautious.  Really, he should be slugging 1200 or something down there!

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/18

12:02
Travis Sawchik: Happy All-Star Break, folks

12:02
Travis Sawchik: And more important, happy Trade Value Series Week

12:03
Travis Sawchik: I know who is ranked No. 1 but I can’t tell you

12:03
Mookie Betts: I have to be one of the favourites/if not the favourite for AL MVP? Right?

12:04
Travis Sawchik: You’re in the discussion but you’re actually behind Trout AND Jose Ramirez in fWAR and Lindor is not far behind you

12:04
Travis Sawchik: The AL MVP race (and Cy Young race) are shaping up to be more interesting than the actual AL postseason races, since they don’t really exist outside of the AL East

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/13/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: To my knowledge Manny Machado still hasn’t been traded

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: If it were to happen during the course of this chat, well, I probably wouldn’t know

9:08

Carl: Which Austin would you rather, Barnes or Hedges?

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: For a game today, Barnes. For the longer term, Hedges, since Barnes is three years older

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 7/12/18

2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Mornin’ from Tempe. Only link to plug today is this: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/early-2019-21-draft-rankings/

2:03
Beni and the Betts: Where would Clint Frazier rank on prospect lists if he were still eligible?

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: A timely question as, while sourcing on NYY players for team list updates, I’ve asked on Frazier, who scouts still think is a 50.

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: So, he’d be a 50 FV on the lists.

2:04
Chuck: For guys in the DSL and AZL, even GCL, at what point can you tell someone is a legit prospect? Obviously not everyone can see them in person, so much of it is stat line scouting or reading elsewhere.

2:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I see players myself and talk to scouts and front office people who have seen them or have info on them. No statline stuff, no reading elsewhere, all about evaluating the physical tools.

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/12/18

12:05
Jay Jaffe: Howdy, folks, and my apologies for the tardiness — my browser, which was bearing the load open tabs from about five different articles (including published ones on Shin-Soo Choo, Noath Syndergaard and Yadier Molina plus forthcoming ones on Daniel Descalso’s pitching and Ken Giles melting down), crashed and needed a reset. On with the show…

12:05
Bob: Should Sheffield really be a dealbreaker for the Yankees getting Machado?  I know his arm is electric, but do you miss out on a HoF’er because you won’t let go of a guy who hasn’t mastered his control problems in the minors?

12:08
Jay Jaffe: Even if Machado may be a future Hall of Famer, the Yankees would be giving up six-plus years of a very good pitching prospect for what amounts to a 2 1/2-month rental to fill a need that they already have covered reasonably well by either Didi Gregorius or Miguel Andujar, plus whatever need might have for Sheffield’s services later this season. That’s a very steep price to pay, and I can’t blame the Yankees for searching for alternatives.

12:09
Bo: Is Dansby Swanson going to hit enough to stay as an everyday player?

12:12
Jay Jaffe: He’ll be able to produce on both sides of the ball — remember, the offensive demands for a shortstop are relatively low — well enough to stay as a regular, yes. Even with an 85 wRC+ this year, he’s been worth 1.2 WAR thanks to above-average glovework (+3.4 UZR, +11 DRS). Based upon his track record, he’s projected to hit better ROS, and as a 24-year-old, can expect some growth in his offensive skill over the next few years. If Andrelton Simmons can become an above-average hitter in time, I don’t think it’s beyond Swanson.

12:12
stever20: how crazy was what Arizona did last night with their pitching?

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/11/18

12:11

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here, live, and wants to chat with you!

12:12

Rick C: On a scale of 1-10, how big of a blunder was it for the Braves to fail to come to an agreement with Stewart?

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe a 3 or 4? We had 5 players ranked ahead of Stewart that were on the board for that pick. He’s a prep righty that was trending down leading up to draft day, an especially risky class of player. The 2019 class is college bat heavy and would appear to have enough 50 FV types to give the Braves a chance to get a comparable talent at 9 that’s a hitter and closer to the big leagues than Stewart would be, thus eliminating the only real negative: putting off having an elite prospect by a year.

12:14

Kiley McDaniel: Also fans, generally speaking, freak out way too much when a player doesn’t sign.

12:15

Larry: A lot of Braves fans saying that not signing Stewart isn’t a huge deal because of the compensation pick. Is that true though? The GCL/DSL levels of that system are extremely bare right now.

12:15

Kiley McDaniel: But what if you pick a guy that never plays at those levels? Also, missing one prospect from rookie ball doesn’t matter. There aren’t championships for most loaded rookie ball team.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/10/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Good morning, and welcome to the chat!

12:00
Meg Rowley: Carson has some away from his computer business to attend to, so I’ll just be going an hour so as to ensure that FanGraphs does not burn down in his absence. But for now? Chat!

12:00
Zonk: The contract is a sunk cost, but is Albert Pujols even worth a roster spot at this point into next season?  If the answer is no, how does this play out for the Angels and Albert?

12:01
Meg Rowley: He’s a marginally better hitter than last year? Pujols has not been good, and the feel good milestones are pretty much behind him now, but also, he isn’t the real reason the Angels aren’t in a Wild Card spot.

12:02
Meg Rowley: Given how the org has dealt with big, bad contracts in the past, I’d be surprised if they cut him outright.

12:03
Meg Rowley: In my own life, I once faced a decision between making finance money and being happy and satisfied, and decided to make a lot less, but I also wasn’t making Pujols’ salary. I imagine a time will come when it isn’t worth it for him anymore, but I wonder if that will be more a function of physical discomfort (he looks like running isn’t fun for him) than pride.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/18

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Welcome to this very special episode of the Dan Szymborski chat!

2:00
Dan Szymborski: I want to talk about teen smoking.  If a bigger, stronger boy is making you smoke, you should say “No!  Smokers are jokers!” And then push him down the steps.

2:01
Dan Szymborski: I do have an announcement to make.  At the END of the chat.  And I promise you, unlike a certain children’s book THAT PROMISED A FRIGGING MONSTER, it won’t just be fricking Grover.

2:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t promise that it won’t be disappointing.  Incoherently promise, incoherently deliver, I always say.

2:01
Greg: A question I never imagined even considering — Does Nick Markakis deserve a qualifying offer? Would he accept it?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: It’s a lot to pay for one year of Markakis.  I remain unconvinced that this is a good idea, but he *has* had a valuable season, the bes tof his career, at least offensively.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:06
Travis Sawchik: Happy All-Star Snub Reaction Day

12:06
Travis Sawchik: There were many!

12:06
Travis Sawchik: The players might be worse at picking All-Stars than the general public …

12:06
Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started!

12:07
Rob: Who benefits more from Machado:  Dodgers or Brewers?

12:07
Travis Sawchik: Brewers, I think. Of each current iteration, FG projects the Dodgers to have much stronger division odds

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/6/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: I was all prepared to bury the Nationals, and then they came back from down 9-0. That’s the Marlins for you!

9:07

:/: how long can the mariners pretend Ryon Healy is not a 0 WAR player and try something else?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: The Healy thing is really not going very well

9:08

Jeff Sullivan: Not because he’s a bad player, but because he’s an entirely unimproved player

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 7/5/18

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Hi from Tempe. Links…

2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote up the new Reds prospects from the Floro deal…https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-the-reds-return-f…

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s Daily Prospect Notes: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-5/

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Look for Futures Game roster reaction tomorrow, as well as something on ESPN Insider on July 2 guys

2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably gonna stick to a tight 60 min today, so let’s boogie

2:06
Robert: With the new J2 class, anyone that jumps off the charts outside of the top 5 or so? I’ve read good things on Alcantara and Pie

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/5/18

12:02
Jay Jaffe: Hey everybody! Thanks for stopping by today’s chat. Hopefully, you enjoyed the July 4 holiday and returned with a similar number of fingers as you had previously. Before we get into the questions, I’d like to call your attention to my upcoming appearance at Politics and Prose Bookstore in Washington, DC on July 14, where I’ll be signing copies of The Cooperstown Casebook and ESPN’s Keith Law will be doing the same for Smart Baseball; we’ll both discuss our books and field questions. It’s the night before the All-Star Futures Game, so if you’re in town for the event, please stop by!

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/jay-jaffe-and-keith-law-in…

And now, onto the questions….

12:02
Pio: DRS thinks Machado is a historically bad shortstop and UZR thinks he’s just regular bad. Which one do you think is closer to the truth?

12:04
Jay Jaffe: In general, I tend to prefer DRS to UZR because of the additional observational input beyond just batted ball type (both of which do have their biases, admittedly). But I think a good strategy when viewing defensive metrics is to be wary of the outliers, and DRS tends to have more than UZR does — the spread from top to bottom is generally wider. So I’ll go with garden-variety bad instead of historically bad.

12:05
Oh Mets…: I saw somewhere that the Mets are viewing Flores as their piece to move since hes controllable – but is there really any appetite at all for him? Can’t imagine the return would be that great.

12:08
Jay Jaffe: I saw the same thing and thought simiarly. Flores is a decent lefty-masher who’s stretched as a regular, and his defense on the left side of the infield is generally Not Good. He’s a useful spare-part pickup for a contending team but trading him isn’t going to do anything to change the course of the Mets’ org.

12:08
Greg: A question I never thought would be worth asking — is Nick Markakis worthy of a qualifying offer this offseason? If so, would he turn it down?

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/3/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Happy baseball chat from the mountains, friends!

12:00
Meg Rowley: I’ll probably go a bit shorter than usual today in an effort to do some editing (read: go on a hike before it gets too hot).

12:00
Meg Rowley: But for now? Chat!

12:01
Brad Johnson: Does Justin always chat at the same time as you? (I swapped shifts with him)

Should I forward all the fantasy questions to you? You can direct the poop and farts to me I suppose.

12:01
Meg Rowley: He does I think? Everyone, go ask Brad your fantasy baseball questions.

12:01
Meg Rowley: Don’t you dare take the poop/farts beat away from me, Brad.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/29/18

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07

Nick: Who is the biggest threat to the Mariners in the second AL WC spot. Is it really the A’s?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Basically has to be the A’s

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: They’re seven back. The next-closest team is the Angels, at ten back, and they’ve been completely decimated by injuries

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: Rays are 11 back. Blue Jays, 13. Twins, 13.5. It’s the A’s or it’s nobody

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Eric Longenhagen Chat: 6/28

2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up everyone? Howdy from Arizona, where it is officially ‘Hot AF’ and the AZL is now underway.

2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Some housekeeping:

2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: We’ll have a July 2 board up tomorrow

2:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Daily Prospect Notes are back and can be found here: We’ll have a July 2 board up tomorrow

2:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Submitted today’s to Carson just moments ago, will link if he gets it up during chat

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/28/18

12:04
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat, my first in two weeks after time spent on Cape Cod with family and in Denver meeting our readers and my fellow staffers — and checking out Coors Field for the first time.

That visit had me wondering about the Rockies’ recent problems in assembling a productive outfield, which I wrote about for today https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-cant-the-rockies-put-together-an-o…

Meanwhile, I’ll have an InstaGraphs page for this up later today, but if you’re a Washington DC area resident a visitor who will be in town for the All-Star Futures Game, you’re invited to a book signing at the great Politics and Prose, where Keith Law (ESPN Insider prospect expert and author of Smart Baseball) and I (author of Cooperstown Casebook) will sign and discuss our respective books on Saturday, July 14 at 6 pm. See https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book/keith-law-smart-baseball-jay… for more details in the interim.

12:04
Jay Jaffe: With that out of the way, let’s get to the questions!

12:04
Jeff: So with no Mets baseball to watch all summer, what should I do with all this free time?

12:05
Jay Jaffe: Read some books, spend time with family/children, devote yourself to a cause, sign up for MLB TV and watch other teams… there’s plenty to do, and you will survive. You might even be healthier for it.

12:06
Fred: What kind of HOF case is Arenado building, and how do you think playing in Coors will affect his chances?

12:10
Jay Jaffe: Arenado’s years old and in his sixth season. If he keeps playing as he has been thus far in 2018, he’ll have four seasons in the vicinity of 6 bWAR (or better), a strong foundation to build upon along with the more traditional measures. Voters have had a hard time figuring out what to do with the credentials of Larry Walker given his time at Coors, and they’re likely to do the same when it comes to Todd Helton, who become eligible this winter and is in the vicinity of the JAWS standard at first base (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_1B.shtml), above on peak and below on career WAR. I think Arenado will be in better shape because of the perception and impact of his highlight-film defense, but it’s still probably an uphill battle for any Rockies player.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 6/27/18

12:01
Meg Rowley: Good morning! As you might have guessed, I am not Kiley. We will return to our regularly scheduled programming next week, but for now, a Wednesday Meg chat!

12:01
yojiveself: imagine if you could start MLB all over again.  No history, no records.  How many games a season do you want?  To me, a 100 game season would be perfect.  Start mid-April, WS in late September.  Thoughts?

12:02
Meg Rowley: Dropping all the way down to 100 feels very drastic. Now you might say, hey, that’s because you’re used to baseball as it is, and this is meant to be a question about baseball as it should be.

12:02
Meg Rowley: To which I would say, well yeah, but 100 is too few.

12:02
Meg Rowley: I think something in the 150s allows you to skirt some of the really yucky weather on the front end, but keeps October the same.

12:03
Meg Rowley: There’s something about crisp air during playoff baseball I’d be loathe to do. Also, the sample size is nice.

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