Archive for Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15

Crowdsourced Results: Dead Money of Select Trade Targets

Yesterday, FanGraphs facilitated a crowdsourcing effort not unlike that other recent crowdsourcing effort which produced year and dollar estimates for the contracts likely to be received by this offseason’s top-55 free agents.

In the case of yesterday’s exercise, however, readers were asked not to estimate the values of the league’s free agents, but rather of those players who are both (a) candidates to be traded this offseason, and also (b) signed to contracts of disproportionate cost relative to the player’s likely benefit to a team in wins.

The purpose of the exercise: to estimate the actual market values (in dollars) of those same contracts for the actual years which remain on them. And the secondary purpose: to estimate, as well, the amount of “dead money” — that is, the amount a player’s club would have to cover to successfully trade away a player — present on each of those contracts.

Read the rest of this entry »


Crowdsourcing the Value of Trade Targets with Bad Contracts

As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project for baseball’s free agents, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 offseason market. The result: a single post featuring the league’s top-55 free agents, ordered by projected size (in dollars) of contract.

The numbers produced by the crowd are imperfect — demonstrating, most notably, a streak of conservatism wherein the most talented free agents (Max Scherzer, Hanley Ramirez, etc.) are concerned. Even with certain biases present, however, the crowd’s estimates are useful for cultivating an understanding of the offseason market as a whole.

What follows is similar exercise as that offseason free-agent one — designed, however, not to estimate the values of the league’s free agents, but rather of those players who are both (a) candidates to be traded this offseason, but also (b) signed to contracts of disproportionate cost relative to the player’s likely benefit to a team in wins.

The purpose of this exercise: to estimate the actual market values (in dollars) of those same contracts for the years that remain on them. So, for example, Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp is owed $107 million through 2019 — that is, over five years. The question of interest here — and certainly one of interest to those general managers who might consider trading for Kemp — is thus: Were you a GM, how much would you pay for five years of Matt Kemp? Something more than $0, presumably, but also probably something less than $107 million.

Below are 10 players with regard to whom that sort of question is a relevant one.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 55 Free Agents

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series — which competition, barring some unforeseen circumstance, is likely to end today. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are the results of same. For each player, respondents provided estimates of the years and dollars he’s likely to receive. Also, in such cases as a player is a candidate to receive a qualifying offer from his club, readers predicted whether he would or not — and whether, having received a qualifying offer, that player would accept it. Answers to other questions — regarding options, for example — also appear below.

In terms of how the projected contract values below are likely to relate to reality, a comparison between last year’s crowdsourced estimates and the actual contracts received reveals that the crowd typically missed by 37% on overall contract value and is most likely to underestimate the overall contract figures of the most high-profile free agents. It’s not unreasonable, in other words, to expect that Hanley Ramirez will receive more than the 5 years and $90 million he’s projected to receive. Of note, however, is that most of last year’s top free agents were hitters, while Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are the most formidable names among this year’s free-agent class. Whether this same principle of underestimating the contracts received by top free agents applies to pitchers, as well — for whom length of contract is an issue, given the possibility of injury — is a question that remains.

Read the rest of this entry »


Crowdsourced vs. Actual Contract Values from 2013-2014

Later this morning, FanGraphs will publish the results of this year’s contract crowdsourcing effort, a list of the top-55 free agents (more or less) in order of total contract value as estimated by the wisdom of the crowd that is FanGraphs’ readership.

The projected contract values in that post will likely not precisely match the actual contracts received by this offseason’s free agents. To understand what biases the crowd might exhibit (if any), I’ve published below the results from last year’s crowdsourcing effort, alongside the actual contracts received by the relevant free agents.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 11 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for two players the author was an idiot for omitting.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Brett Anderson / Chad Billingsley / Emilio Bonifacio / A.J. Burnett / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Chris Capuano / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Stephen Drew / Gavin Floyd / Jason Hammel / Aaron Harang / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Josh Johnson / Hiroki Kuroda / Adam LaRoche / Jon Lester / Francisco Liriano / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Justin Masterson / Brandon McCarthy / Andrew Miller / Kendrys Morales / Brandon Morrow / Michael Morse / Jake Peavy / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / David Robertson / Francisco Rodriguez / Sergio Romo / Pablo Sandoval / Ervin Santana / Max Scherzer / James Shields / Ichiro Suzuki / Koji Uehara / Ryan Vogelsong / Edinson Volquez / Rickie Weeks / Chris Young (OF) / Chris Young (SP) / Delmon Young.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 10 of 10 (Bonus Round)

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for four players omitted from the previous ten days’ worth of these posts.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Brett Anderson / Chad Billingsley / Emilio Bonifacio / A.J. Burnett / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Gavin Floyd / Jason Hammel / Aaron Harang / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Hiroki Kuroda / Adam LaRoche / Jon Lester / Francisco Liriano / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Justin Masterson / Brandon McCarthy / Andrew Miller / Kendrys Morales / Brandon Morrow / Michael Morse / Jake Peavy / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / David Robertson / Francisco Rodriguez / Sergio Romo / Pablo Sandoval / Ervin Santana / Max Scherzer / James Shields / Ichiro Suzuki / Koji Uehara / Ryan Vogelsong / Edinson Volquez / Chris Young (OF) / Chris Young (SP) / Delmon Young.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 10 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for the a collection of five relief pitchers.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Brett Anderson / Chad Billingsley / Emilio Bonifacio / A.J. Burnett / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Gavin Floyd / Jason Hammel / Aaron Harang / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Hiroki Kuroda / Adam LaRoche / Jon Lester / Francisco Liriano / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Justin Masterson / Brandon McCarthy / Kendrys Morales / Brandon Morrow / Michael Morse / Jake Peavy / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / Pablo Sandoval / Ervin Santana / Max Scherzer / James Shields / Ichiro Suzuki / Ryan Vogelsong / Edinson Volquez / Chris Young (OF) / Chris Young (SP) / Delmon Young.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 9 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for the last four starting pitchers we’ll be considering.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Brett Anderson / Chad Billingsley / Emilio Bonifacio / A.J. Burnett / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Gavin Floyd / Jason Hammel / Aaron Harang / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Hiroki Kuroda / Adam LaRoche / Jon Lester / Francisco Liriano / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Justin Masterson / Brandon McCarthy / Kendrys Morales / Brandon Morrow / Michael Morse / Jake Peavy / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / Pablo Sandoval / Ervin Santana / Max Scherzer / Ichiro Suzuki / Chris Young (OF)/ Delmon Young.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 8 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for another collection of starting pitchers — in this cases, ones who surnames begin with M through S.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Brett Anderson / Chad Billingsley / Emilio Bonifacio / A.J. Burnett / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Gavin Floyd / Jason Hammel / Aaron Harang / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Hiroki Kuroda / Adam LaRoche / Jon Lester / Francisco Liriano / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Justin Masterson / Kendrys Morales / Michael Morse / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / Pablo Sandoval / Ichiro Suzuki / Chris Young (OF)/ Delmon Young.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 7 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for another collection of starting pitchers — generally speaking, a healthier sort of starting pitcher than which appeared in yesterday’s edition of this same thing.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Brett Anderson / Chad Billingsley / Emilio Bonifacio / A.J. Burnett / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Gavin Floyd / Jason Hammel / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Adam LaRoche / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Kendrys Morales / Michael Morse / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / Pablo Sandoval / Ichiro Suzuki / Chris Young (OF)/ Delmon Young.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 6 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for a collection of starting pitchers who’ve demonstrated varying degrees of health in recent years.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Emilio Bonifacio / Billy Butler / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Adam LaRoche / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Victor Martinez / Kendrys Morales / Michael Morse / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / Pablo Sandoval / Ichiro Suzuki / Chris Young (OF)/ Delmon Young.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 5 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for a collection of immobile DH-types and also Ichiro Suzuki.

Other Players: Nori Aoki / Emilio Bonifacio / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Chase Headley / Torii Hunter / Adam LaRoche / Jed Lowrie / Nick Markakis / Russell Martin / Michael Morse / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Alex Rios / Pablo Sandoval / Chris Young (OF).

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 4 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for a collection of free-agent outfielders.

Other Players: Emilio Bonifacio / Asdrubal Cabrera / Melky Cabrera / Nelson Cruz / Michael Cuddyer / Chase Headley / Adam LaRoche / Jed Lowrie / Russell Martin / Michael Morse / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Mark Reynolds / Pablo Sandoval.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 3 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for a third baseman, some outfielders, and whatever position one supposes Michael Morse might play.

Other Players: Emilio Bonifacio / Asdrubal Cabrera / Michael Cuddyer / Chase Headley / Adam LaRoche / Jed Lowrie / Russell Martin / Aramis Ramirez / Hanley Ramirez / Mark Reynolds.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 2 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for some shortstops, some third basemen, and at least one shortstop who’s probably a third baseman.

Other Players: Emilio Bonifacio / Michael Cuddyer / Adam LaRoche / Russell Martin / Mark Reynolds.

Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2014-15: Day 1 of 10

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, including the most/only notable catcher, first basemen, and also Emilio Bonifacio.

Read the rest of this entry »