Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 14 of 15

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2015-16 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for six more of this year’s free agents, which group constitutes the last of the starting pitchers.

Other Players: Brett Anderson / Nori Aoki / Alex Avila / Mark Buehrle / Marlon Byrd / Asdrubal Cabrera / Yoenis Cespedes / Wei-Yin Chen / Bartolo Colon / Johnny Cueto / Chris Davis / Rajai Davis / Alejandro De Aza / Ian Desmond / R.A. Dickey / Stephen Drew / Marco Estrada / Doug Fister / Dexter Fowler / David Freese / Yovani Gallardo / Jaime Garcia / Alex Gordon / Zack Greinke / Jeremy Guthrie / J.A. Happ / Jason Heyward / Rich Hill / Torii Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Hisashi Iwakuma / Austin Jackson / John Jaso / Kelly Johnson / Matt Joyce / Scott Kazmir / Howie Kendrick / Kyle Kendrick / Ian Kennedy / John Lackey / Mat Latos / Mike Leake / Tim Lincecum / Kyle Lohse / Justin Masterson / Justin Morneau / Brandon Morrow / Daniel Murphy / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / Dioner Navarro / Bud Norris / Gerardo Parra / Steve Pearce / Alexei Ramirez / Colby Rasmus / Alex Rios / Jimmy Rollins / Geovany Soto / Denard Span / Justin Upton / Juan Uribe / Chase Utley / Will Venable / Shane Victorino / Matt Wieters / Chris Young the Outfielder / Ben Zobrist.

***

Mike Pelfrey (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Pelfrey:

  • Has averaged 113 IP and 1.1 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.0 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.0 WAR in 164.2 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 1.7 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-32 season.
  • Made $5.5M in 2015, as part of deal signed in December 2013.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Pelfrey.

***

David Price (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Price:

  • Has averaged 218 IP and 5.6 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 5.2 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 6.4 WAR in 220.1 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 4.7 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $19.8M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Price.

***

Jeff Samardzija (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Samardzija:

  • Has averaged 215 IP and 3.2 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.9 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.7 WAR in 214.0 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 2.4 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Made $9.8M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Samardzija.

***

Alfredo Simon (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Simon:

  • Has averaged 157 IP and 0.8 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.0 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.0 WAR in 187.0 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 0.6 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-35 season.
  • Made $5.6M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Simon.

***

Chris Young the Pitcher (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Young:

  • Has averaged 144 IP and 0.5 WAR over last two seasons (missed 2013).
  • Has averaged 0.6 WAR per 200 IP* over last two seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.9 WAR in 123.1 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record -0.3 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-37 season.
  • Made $0.7M in 2015 (plus incentives), as part of deal signed in March 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Young.

***

Jordan Zimmermann (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Zimmermann:

  • Has averaged 205 IP and 4.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.9 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 3.0 WAR in 201.2 IP in 2015.
  • Is projected to record 3.3 WAR per 200 IP**.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Made $16.5M in 2015, as part of deal signed in January 2014.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**Prorated version of 2016 Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Zimmermann.

We hoped you liked reading Contract Crowdsourcing 2015-16: Day 14 of 15 by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Cory Settoon
Member

Shark and Zimm are both difficult to project. Shark might go a 1 year route. Not sure who to compare Zimmermann to.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC

I think I just went too low, because I was thinking “good number 2 pitcher” and I remembered Homer Bailey, who got over $100 million without even being a free agent. I could see $125-135 million over 6-7 years, or a little less over 5.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC

And obviously I’m talking about when it was signed. Of course Bailey immediately turned into a pumpkin.

glekj
Guest
glekj

Homey Bailey always was a pumpkin. The Reds just signed him to a very bad contract is all.

Brent Henry
Member
Brent Henry

TKDC, I agree with that assessment for Zimm’s market.

glekj, that’s not true before his elbow injuries.