Daily Notes: Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter
Introduction
Despite allowing four runs, Texas right-hander Nick Tepesch also struck out nine of the 22 — or, about 41% — of the batters he faced on Friday, the best rate among all of the evening’s 30 starting pitchers. That he did it against the Houston Astros, however — i.e. the club whose batters strike out more often than any other club’s — assuredly renders the feat less impressive.

“How much less impressive?” is a question the author more or less asked himself on Saturday morning — and the one he attempted to answer slightly less early on Saturday morning.

The results of the attempt are published below. What the author has done is to identify the strikeout rate for each team relative to league average. That figure is represented as an index stat, Opp K+, where a lower figure signifies a lower team strikeout rate relative to league average. The author has then divided every pitcher’s strikeout rate from Friday’s game by Opp K+, the result of which is an adjusted strikeout rate for the pitcher, or Adj Pit K%.

Table: Adjusted Strikeout Totals for Every Friday Starter
By the methodology described above, here are the adjusted strikeout rates and totals for all of Friday’s starting pitchers (sorted by adjusted strikeout rate):

Rank Name Team Opp IP TBF Act K Pit K% Opp K+ Adj Pit K% Adj K
1 Ivan Nova Yankees Orioles 9.0 31 11 35.5% 93 38.2% 12
2 Jeremy Hellickson Rays White Sox 7.0 26 9 34.6% 104 33.3% 9
3 Nick Tepesch Rangers Astros 5.0 22 9 40.9% 128 32.0% 7
4 Wade Davis Royals Athletics 7.0 28 8 28.6% 99 29.0% 8
5 Justin Masterson Indians Tigers 4.2 24 6 25.0% 86 28.9% 7
6 Jorge de la Rosa Rockies D-backs 5.1 22 5 22.7% 94 24.2% 5
7 Francisco Liriano Pirates Cubs 9.0 33 7 21.2% 98 21.6% 7
8 Felix Doubront Red Sox Angels 6.2 26 5 19.2% 91 21.1% 5
9 Rick Porcello Tigers Indians 7.0 27 6 22.2% 111 20.1% 5
10 Tyler Skaggs D-backs Rockies 8.0 26 5 19.2% 98 19.6% 5
11 Mark Buehrle Blue Jays Twins 7.0 27 5 18.5% 103 18.0% 5
12 Gio Gonzalez Nationals Padres 6.2 28 5 17.9% 105 17.0% 5
13 Aaron Harang Mariners Reds 6.0 24 4 16.7% 103 16.3% 4
14 Lucas Harrell Astros Rangers 3.2 22 3 13.6% 88 15.4% 3
15 Paul Maholm Braves Phillies 6.0 27 4 14.8% 99 15.0% 4
16 Tommy Milone Athletics Royals 8.1 31 4 12.9% 86 14.9% 5
17 C.J. Wilson Angels Red Sox 6.2 32 5 15.6% 105 14.8% 5
18 Miguel Gonzalez Orioles Yankees 6.0 27 4 14.8% 100 14.8% 4
19 Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers Giants 6.2 26 3 11.5% 87 13.2% 3
20 Jacob Turner Marlins Cardinals 6.0 25 3 12.0% 91 13.2% 3
21 Zack Wheeler Mets Brewers 5.0 24 3 12.5% 97 12.9% 3
22 Cliff Lee Phillies Braves 6.1 27 4 14.8% 117 12.6% 3
23 Kevin Correia Twins Blue Jays 6.0 30 3 10.0% 96 10.4% 3
24 Mike Leake Reds Mariners 5.0 21 2 9.5% 110 8.7% 2
25 Jeff Samardzija Cubs Pirates 6.0 31 3 9.7% 113 8.6% 3
26 Dylan Axelrod White Sox Rays 1.2 14 1 7.1% 91 7.8% 1
27 Matt Cain Giants Dodgers 2.1 17 1 5.9% 92 6.4% 1
28 John Hellweg Brewers Mets 3.2 26 0 0.0% 112 0.0% 0
29 Jake Westbrook Cardinals Marlins 7.0 25 0 0.0% 95 0.0% 0
30 Andrew Cashner Padres Nationals 2.0 15 0 0.0% 108 0.0% 0

Three Notes
• There are a number of variables — probably important variables — for which this methodology doesn’t account, obviously. Like, the actual nine batters in each team’s lineup, specifically. Nor any sort of strikeout factor that might be belong to the respective parks involved.

• Those caveats having been made, the answer to the author’s original question — i.e. “How much less impressive was Nick Tepesch‘s performance from Friday because it was against the Astros?” — the answer seems to be “About two strikeouts less impressive.”

Ivan Nova‘s 11 strikeouts against 31 Baltimore Orioles would appear actually to represent the most impressive of Friday’s adjusted strikeout rates, the Oriole batters striking out 7% percent less often than the average major-league team this far this season.

Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
Oakland at Kansas City | 14:10 ET
Jarrod Parker (100.2 IP, 114 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR) faces Ervin Santana (111.0 IP, 87 xFIP-, 1.7 WAR) in a matchup which — for a number of reasons, likely — would be difficult to explain to a resident of Kansas City from 1957. Or a resident of Philadelphia anytime between 1901 and 1954. Or a deaf person, if you don’t know sign language. Or someone who speaks a non-Germanic or -Romance language. Or probably just anyone’s grandfather, because that’s how grandfathers are, generally.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Today’s Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.4.

Note: the following table is entirely sortable.

Away   SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP   Home Time
Chris Tillman BAL 4 9 5 4 5 NYA Andy Pettitte 13:05
Mike Pelfrey MIN 1 3 5 7 9 TOR R.A. Dickey 13:07
Jarrod Parker OAK 4 6 6 6 7 KC Ervin Santana 14:10
Nathan Eovaldi* MIA 7 1 6 4 6 STL Joe Kelly* 14:15
Anibal Sanchez DET 10 7 7 8 3 CLE Carlos Carrasco 16:05
Charlie Morton* PIT 6 7 6 5 5 CHN Edwin Jackson 16:05
Jason Marquis SD 0 7 4 1 9 WAS J. Zimmermann 16:05
Jer. Bonderman SEA 0 5 4 3 9 CIN Mat Latos 16:10
Tim Hudson ATL 5 8 4 1 3 PHI Kyle Kendrick 19:15
Chris Sale CHA 10 1 7 10 4 TB Matt Moore 19:15
Dallas Keuchel HOU 6 2 7 3 10 TEX Yu Darvish 19:15
Stephen Fife LAN 6 2 6 6 7 SF M. Bumgarner 19:15
Shaun Marcum NYN 4 6 4 4 4 MIL Yovani Gallardo 19:15
Ryan Dempster BOS 3 7 4 6 4 LAA Jerome Williams 22:05
Drew Pomeranz* COL 6 8 6 2 6 AZ Wade Miley 22:10

To learn how Pitcher and Team NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.



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JJCool23
Member
JJCool23

I am taking it as a typo, but what is “any sort of strikeout factor that might be ass” supposed to be?

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