Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/18

12:02
Dan Szymborski: There are civil defense sirens going off, so either it’s noon on the first Monday or I’m going to die soon. Let’s find out which!

12:02
MrMet33: Any update on ZiPS release schedule for 2019 projections?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Starting tomorrow! Since I’ll be able to do more a week for FG as I’m now full-time here, we should end around the same time.

12:03
Jay: What should the Padres do with Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy, and Franmil?

12:05
Hunt for for 28: The return for Segura seems pretty weak to me.. plus taking on Santana?? I don’t get it

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think you have to trade Myers. With Hosmer at first for no particular reason

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Oops, sorry, skipped an answer

12:05
Dan Szymborski: With Hosmer at first, it’s hard to get a look at all the corner guys

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Then you probably see who’s healthy in the spring

12:05
JShaft33: Which non-tendered player(s) have the best chance of making their previous team regret the decision? I think Avi Garcia and Schoop both have the highest ceilings based on 2017 production.

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Schoop has upside. Avi needs a ridonk-a-donkulous BABIP to be useful at all.

12:06
John S: Should the Padres be in on Kyle Seager?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: Not really, no.

12:07
Dan Szymborski: He’s already crashed hard over two years and is on the wrong side of 30. Though I guess it would depend on just how much the Mariners want to eat.

12:07
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I think the return for Segura is fine. Segura’s a solid middle infielder, but neither ZiPS or Steamer like him as much in the future and Crawford has a ton of upside.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: ANd *something* is likely going back Phillies way to equalize the salaries more

12:08
976: Buffet rankings: Cosmo breakfast 70. Caesars 65.  Wynn 60.  Bellagio 50.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I stay away from breakfast buffets because I might eat enough sausage and bacon to need my stomach pumped

12:08
Dan Szymborski: But I’ve never been to Vegas, so I’d definitely like to try a buffet

12:08
Matt: Is a burrito just an infinitely rolled taco?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: No

12:09
wharble: What total guaranteed $$$ would get a Rendon extension done for the Nats?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: 5/100 maybe?

12:10
DJ Tanner: Do the Phils grabbing Segura mean they won’t pursue Machado or is Machado OK with playing 3B?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: For $300 million, Many might be persuaded. They could always move Segura to third even if he couldn’t

12:11
Dan Szymborski: I mean, I’d prefer Machado at third and Segura at short, but it Machado at short and Segura so sub-ideal that you’d call the whole tehing off?

12:11
Caleb Joseph: With the O’s missing out on the big Cuban names, do they get to keep all the international money they acquired or does it automatically go to Chris Davis?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: There’s no acquire money, only the acquired ability to spend money.

12:11
Steve Phillips: Do you think Alomar makes the Mets a contender, or do they need another big bat like Mo Vaughn or Jeremy Burnitz?

12:11
Dan Szymborski: Burnitz!

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I made a really mean blog entry about his signing some years ago

12:12
Dan Szymborski: This was teh whole entry.

12:12
Dan Szymborski:

12:14
Justin: Assuming the Pirates have, say, $10 million available to spend, what is the next move that makes sense?  I feel like SS is their weakest spot, but the non-Machado FA shortstops aren’t that much better than the Newman projection.  I have a “trade for Profar (who all of a sudden is only 2 yrs from FA), use that money on something else” bug in my brain.

12:15
Dan Szymborski: That’s kinda the problem, I think they just go with Newman in the end.

12:16
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: More “surprising” non-tenders this year or am I just paying more attention?

12:16
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they were *that* surprising.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: Hamilton’s kinda surprising. He’s always been this player and they’ve been resistant to trading him.

12:16
Moose_Bolton: I had a dream the other night that my parents went into a restaurant you were eating at, turned you into a butterfly, put you in a box, and took you away. I’m not sure what that means or what it says about me, but I thought you should know.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: YOUR PARENTS TOOK MY SOUL

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I’M CALLING THE DREAM POLICE

12:17
November, 2020: Sorry, we can’t sign any free agents while we’re still paying off the Cano deal. No, we won’t move him off of second base, that would be disrespectful to the veteran. We can’t rebuild even though we’ve yet to make the playoffs since 2016, we’re still Going For It. Just, you know, without spending real money.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s a problem at all at second base, honestly.

12:17
Matt: I’m getting lunch at 10:51. Sue me.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: That’s 11:51 in normal time

12:17
Mandy is 92% Fresh: I think I have just been traded to the Mariners … and now from the Mariners to Phillies … and back to the Mariners … and to the Mets … and back to the Mariners …

12:17
The Old Buccaneer: It’s truly fascinating to watch a motivated Dipoto in action compared to other GMs.

12:17
Dan Szymborski: It’s never boring.

12:18
Hank Scorpio: The O’s sign Adam Jones and Markakis and just try to pretend the last two (four?) years didn’t happen…

12:18
Dan Szymborski: Happily — or maybe sadly because of the lulz — they’re probably too smart.

12:18
Baseball Guy: What does Jerry DiPoto know that no one else does? Seems like he’s the only GM than can make trades anymore.

12:18
Dan Szymborski: If you keep making trades YOU CAN’T DIE

12:18
pelkey: how does WAR split across players in a trade? what i mean is, if you are trading a 10-win player for 2 players, what would the combined total WAR need to be between them? two 7-win players would satisfy the pythagorean theorem (which is appealing to me for some reason). what about 3 players?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite sure I understand this question. Could you rephrase it?

12:19
Slapshot: What, exactly, are the Mariners doing?  I don’t think they know.  Because I sure don’t!

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Teareing down for a rebuild.

12:19
Joe: Please explain how acquiring a 36 YO 2B and elite closer for prospects and then trading away your #2 starter makes any sense without using the following words: Wilpon, cheap, or Madoff. Thank you.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: It’d be crazy to trade Thor once you’ve gone to all this effort to bring in Cano

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I made a graphic to demonstrate what picking up Cano and trading Thor would look like.

12:20
Dan Szymborski:

12:20
Poised: Thoughts on DRC+? And will it come to Fangraphs?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: It’s new and I haven’t relaly thought about it deeply, but it’s interesting, almost a batter FIP.

12:21
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does something similar, but it does things like model individual things like BABIP

12:21
Dbo: How much of an impact does Cano-Diaz have on the Mets? They’re still hopeless, right?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: There’s enough of an upside with the pitching. No other team in the NL East is a juggernaut

12:21
Sad Mr Met: Was this deal as awful as I think it was? I’m actually thinking of moving fan bases

12:22
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it was bad – the idea the M’s would eat $100 million always struck me as fanciful

12:22
Dan Szymborski: And no Bruce to stupidly eat up ABs

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Or did Syndergaard suddenly get traded while I’ve been chatting? Lots of Mets panic in the questions today.

12:22
pelkey: thanks for the elegy series. it’s been great!

12:22
Dan Szymborski: I hope you guys are enjoying it; it’s the kind of thing I really wanted to do at ESPN for years but never was able to

12:22
Cpins: Now that $20m to NYM appears confirmed and setting aside opportunity costs for other options – how does the Diaz/Cano deal shake out valuation wise?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s actually fair.

12:23
tb.25: I can only picture Dipoto doing normal life, like walking around his house or out at dinner, only to randomly think and shout “trade!” like the dog in Up with squirrels

12:23
Dan Szymborski: I’m keeping the off-topic ones for the Lightning Round, I’m not ignoring them.

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Unless it’s incredibly stupid, in which case I might.

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Also as a side note, there will be no chat next week as I will be at the Winter Meetings, so I’m trying to be twice as lousy this week to make up for it.

12:24
Jean P. Crawford: I’m convinced Dipoto thinks Safeco will explode if he doesn’t keep making trades. Crawford hasn’t shown much above AA, does he really represent someone of good value in a return for Jean Segura?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: I remain optimistic about a health Crawford

12:24
Michael Conforto: What if the Mets flip Diaz for better prospects than the ones they just traded?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Nah, they’re using him

12:25
P: DiPoto IS the hot stove

12:25
Dbo: I saw that the Phillies are saying they are interested in Machado, Harper, and Corbin. I would like to announce that I am interested in dating Emma Watson, Scarlett Johansson, and Brie Larson

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Unlike you or I, the Phillies actually might have the ability to date more than one of them. Or one of them.

12:25
John S: The Mariners are selling high (Diaz, Segura, Paxton and to a lesser extent Cano) and buying low (Bruce, Santana, JP Crawford) while getting some monetary relief and decent prospects in return.  Isn’t this exactly what they should be doing?  Seems like they’re getting grilled for taking on Santana et al. but just last year (some) people were calling his signing shrewd.

12:25
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think it was a bad deal last year an dit didn’t look great the first year!

12:25
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Mariners are really that much worse.

12:26
robertobeers: Ready to open 67 packs tomorrow?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: Just 67? I won’t get the full set with that many!

12:26
Eppler: Do you think Kikuchi liked the jersey enough that I gave him to sign with us, or is he just going to the highest bidder?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: $$$$

12:26
Colin : Over/Under 5 days until Mitch Haniger is with a new team?

12:26
Dan Szymborski: I actually think Haniger sticks around

12:27
pelkey: is there anything suggesting the Dbacks might move Peralta?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard much specific about Peralta, but I actually think it’s more likely he moves than Haniger

12:28
Asking for a friend: Will Angels trading Calhoun to DBacks for Greinke (Angels eat most if not all of Greinke), then sign Harper to play RF sound like a good plan?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: Well, yeah, but I don’t think it happens.

12:29
Russell: Have you seen much of Eric Haase, if so what should Indians fans expect?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: I know the team’s happy with his progress defensively. He was uneventful the couple of times I saw him live. He might be a slower ru nner than I am

12:30
BK: Who is Wilkin Ramos and when did he get traded?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: A scrawny very low-level pitcher that’s years away.

12:31
Dan Szymborski: But he’s 18 and hitting low 90s and most scouts think he’s projectable

12:31
Matt: Is it because of lettuce?

12:31
CamdenWarehouse: do you have an opinion on the Lindbergh burrito method?

12:31
Dan Szymborski: I eat burritos from bow to stern.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I prefer tacos honestly.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Beans make me gassy

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I wish I hadn’t shared that

12:32
Matt W: Lost in all the praise from the Nightengale’s of the world for GM Brodie “going for it” is that I remember similar praise for Preller in his first year, and for the Marlins when they signed some guys for the first year of the new ballpark. When has this ever worked out?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Jumping the gun rarely works.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Maybe the ’97 Marlins

12:32
greg: Cat update please.

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is sleeping in the crow’s nest of the giant cat tower, Mercutio was sleeping on the stairs, and last I saw Galileo, he was eating shredded mozzarella I gave him as a reward for not mauling me when I gave him his prednisolone.

12:33
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Should fans stop caring about how much money players are getting in their contracts? I get that it’s a good fun conversation, but when was the last time a teams payroll really hurt them? (Sans Miami because you know…Loria)

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Teams *choose* to let payroll considerations hurt them!

12:33
Matt: Aside from the concept of appeasement, does any team actually view Machado as a SS?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: appeasement is pretty important since it’s the one thing you need to be able to play Machado at all

12:34
Mac: Does Seattle actually think Omar Narvaez is an everyday catcher?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I believe they’re hoping he’ll improve behind the plate in time

12:34
Gob: The Marlins aren’t actually dumb enough to not trade JT Realmuto, are they?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: They might be.

12:35
Hartville Guy: Why does an 89-win team (Mariners) go into full rebuilding rather than re-tooling?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: The Mariners are very expensive to upgrade at all – the farm system at the end of the season was horrible.

12:35
Dan Szymborski: And if you’re not going to spend $300 million, it gets kinda tricky for them

12:36
Danny Ruskin: I need to buy my way out of servitude. How can I make more money, Dan?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: PUnching

12:36
Danny Ruskin: In case of a real civil defense emergency, what is your role?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Cannon fodder

12:36
Rick C: Can we get Donaldson’s ZiPS for 2019?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: OK, fine

12:37
Dan Szymborski: BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF + DR WAR
.270 .378 .509 110 407 73 110 23 1 24 71 68 102 4 4 1 1 3 135 2 4.2

12:37
Michael Conforto: McNeil move to third now? Weird that they didn’t want to include him (possibly over Kelenic!?) but were acquiring someone for his position.

12:37
Dan Szymborski: I expect that’s where he ends up being

12:37
LosDoyers: Just got dumped & there’s not much offseason news for teh Dodgers who lost 2 WS ina  row and broke my heart more than this breakup so far. Can you cheer me up?

12:38
Dan Szymborski: You gotta be damn good to get to the World Series

12:38
cole: Why does cano headline this deal? “did yousee the mets got cano” wtf

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Most famous player

12:38
Hunt for for 28: You never answered my question. It came up on the chat but with no reply.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Did I? I thought I got the stray one, lemme see

12:39
Dan Szymborski: I did! I answered it like 3 questions later

12:39
CamdenWarehouse: I can’t see the Mets pic. Was it “we regret the actions of this employee…”?

12:39
Dan Szymborski:

12:39
Dan Szymborski:

12:40
Lee: In one sentence, why are teams potentially willing to go six years for a guy (Corbin) who has one very good year under his belt, but also multiple years of subpar performance and a serious injury in his past? I know the peripherals really loved him.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: You have to take some risk to land an elite pitcher. We’re talking about the guy who was a serious Cy contender in a non-degrom year and was, IIRC, the second-hardest starter to hit

12:40
cole: ITS MY BDAY DAN

12:40
Matt: My first assumption was that DRC+ meant “delicious rolls  and calzones”. Now, I’m rethinking my pizza lunch

12:40
A cat: Cora has said he will ease his pitchers into next season due to the strenuous post season load. He is most likely referring to Sale and Price. Would it be wiser to piggyback them for a month or so, or go to a six man rotation, using Johnson, Velazquez, Shepherd and a miL FA to soak up starts?

12:41
Dan Szymborski: I think I’d temporarily have a swingman, not go to a rigid six-man

12:42
Matt W: Cano may not be a problem at 2B now, but wait until the Mets doctors get through with him

12:42
cole: Who is catching for the cards after 2020

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Cardinals hope Knizner, I assume, unless Dipoto has traded for him during this chat

12:43
Matt: Who do you plan on signing at the Winter Meetings?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: credit card recipts?

12:43
Dan Szymborski: receipts?

12:43
Josh Nelson: Hey Dan. After the White Sox traded Omar Narvaez to Seattle they are in need of a catcher. I was thinking Yasmani Grandal would make a lot of sense for them. Do you think this would be a wise direction for the White Sox or is there a better fit in FA or trade?

12:44
Dan Szymborski: He does, but I think they got with Castillo and hope Collins/Zavala make it itneresting

12:44
Rockie Dangerfield: Portland’s announcement made me think their concessions stands are going to be much more like a hippie farmer’s market with some in-person etsy stalls set up amongst them.

12:44
Dan Szymborski: kale with flamin’ hot cheetos

12:45
cole: Why are people saying the cardinals need to go for brantley or pollock? if they wanted to do that they would’ve kept pham

12:46
Dan Szymborski: That’s my opinion. I think they’ll go after one of the *big* names

12:46
pelkey: let’s say you have a 10-win player. a mike trout, if you will. imagine you’re going to trade him. there is no such thing as another mike trout, so you can’t get the same value back in a single player. so you have to take multiple players in return. clearly ten 1-win players is not the same thing at all. if you received two 5-win players, you get to 10 wins again, but now it’s over 2 roster spots instead of 1. if one of the new players is a CF to replace trout, the other one has to play somewhere, there by displacing whoever played in that spot previously. if that player was say, major-league average, then you are replacing at 2-win player with a 5-win player. so you’ve upgraded that spot by 3 wins, but you’ve made your team overall worse by 2 wins. this is a very specific example just to illustrate the gain of consolidating WAR in a single roster spot. what i am interested in is a general principle of X WAR at one roster spot is worth Y WAR at two roster spots, Z WAR at three roster spots, etc.

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I think the key here is that you’re making WAR do more than it is intended for.

12:46
Dan Szymborski: WAR is a brute force stat, one which roughly estimates player value.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: But it’s a rough tool, a hammer. Trades are more like using a scalpel, it depends on the exact player, the exact team needs, etc.

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s ever really going to think “Let’s get 3-3-4 WAR players for Trout instead of 5-5 WAR players”

12:47
James: If the Astros add Goldschmidt and Grandal, would they have the best offense in the league?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: Likelo so

12:48
Matt: What is more likely – Trout gets traded next off season, or he signs an open ended extension that allows him to decide when he’s done playing?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: The latter

12:48
Rockie Dangerfield: Where will Larry Walker land for you in the list of all-time Hall of Fame snubs?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: There are so many that it’s difficult

12:48
Dan Szymborski: But he’s upt here

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Assuming Shoeless Joe is out of the covnersation, Walker’s likely the biggest snub at his position at least

12:49
Dan Szymborski: he’s better than Dwight Evans and he’s better than Sosa.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: and better than Sheffield

12:49
JShaft33: Is Seattle just cleaning house for their 2021 move to Portland?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: No

12:49
Joe: I know you’re cynical as an Orioles fan (who ain’t?), but Elias really seems to be moving the team in the direction of competence. Agree?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Strangely, I’m optimistic.

12:50
Rockie Dangerfield: Aren’t soft-shell tacos just lazy and/or overfilled tiny burritos?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:50
Joe: Why are you a chili fascist?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: I’m a chili freedom fighter

12:50
Erik: Will the Mariners wind up getting Markelle Fultz in the Segura trade?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: They could use a guard, but the shoulder issues are a red flag

12:51
Dbo: Do you let the fact that beans make you gassy affect your personal bias? Can we really trust you to be non-partisan on the issue of beans in chili?

12:51
Dan Szymborski: It’s more for other people’s benefits than mine.

12:51
CamdenWarehouse: At first I thought your “appeasement is pretty important” comment was about Galileo

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Appeasing a cat is very important.

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Though I did not give Galileo a blintz. WTF would he do with a blintz?

12:52
Matt: You didn’t’ answer my question though. I’m sure a team will sign him to play SS. My question though, is – is any team thrilled about that? Or is it going to be an “ok, fine, you can play SS, we want your bat” situation?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe any team is thrilled about him playing SS per se. Any team that likes the idea is either thinking signability or have a great 3B already

12:52
Purple Mays Haze: As you slowly leak out the ZIPS projections by team, can the running aggregate be put on the Projections page? (Similar to how the BOARD has the prospects from the teams reviewed so far…)

12:53
Dan Szymborski: That’s something I’ll ask at today’s taff meeting

12:53
Rocko: The Pads have a plethora of outfielders. If you were AJ, who would you keep? I like Franchy, but don’t know if he makes the cut over Reyes, Myers, or Margot.

12:53
Dan Szymborski: I think the problem is that without playing time, it’s really hard to figure out who you’d keep

12:53
jdavidreed: Do the Braves move Camargo?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: No

12:53
Dbo: Any truth to the rumors that you have been planning a hostile takeover of the site and changing the name to “dangraphs”?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: I’m already warchesting Fantographs

12:54
Dan Szymborski:

12:54
romorr: Diaz should be an Oriole in 2019 at some point, right?  I inow service time and all, but he seems ready to me.  Would you have him and Hays battle it out for RF in ST, or roll with Trumbo/stopgap FA?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Yes, I think he gets up fairly quickly

12:54
Eric: Are you into VR at all?  Favorites?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: I’m not really. Haven’t seen the killer app that I must have VR for

12:54
Rockie Dangerfield: Is the ideal profile for a relief pitcher a deaf yoga practitioner so he can’t hear the crowd and can zen his way through the high-leverage situations?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: The idea relief pitcher is ambidextrous and throws 104 and uses one arm every time the other has Tommy John surgery

12:55
Donovan: Are the Mets really “jumping the gun,” as you suggest?  They project for 82 wins right now, one behind the Braves, before even adding Cano and Diaz.  They are legitimate wild-card candidates in the NL without even considering the pending additions.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: I think we’re more talking the general practice.

12:56
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Mets are really going all-in anyway

12:56
Dbo: Should bread be hard or soft? My east coast friends say that sub rolls should be tough and that I have a weak jaw

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Depends!

12:56
Gub Gub: What would your van have airbrushed on the side? Do you go carpet interior?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Joe Orsulak delivering a tiger uppercut to Uncle Sam while George Washington gives him a thumbs-up

12:57
CamdenWarehouse: Walker is listed at 6’2″ 185. How can he be one of the biggest HoF snubs?

12:57
P: No, soft shell tacos are burritos cut in half

12:57
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Yes, you not farting is a benefit for others. But many others also enjoy beans in chili.

12:57
pelkey: hmm, i disagree with you Dan. which is rare. i think there’s a general rule in here somewhere. i’m going to keep working on this. thank you!

12:57
Matt: You are to chili, as Mussolini was to civil discourse.

12:57
Dan Szymborski: I make the chili cook on time.

12:57
A question: have you ever found yourself in the precarious situation of running out of clothes and needing a barrel with 2 straps to cover yourself in public?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: I have not.

12:58
Dan Szymborski: Though I was once hiking and ripped my boxer shorts so severely that they fell out of my shorts while I was in line at Royal Farms.

12:58
Matt: It does not “depend”, Dan. Bread should be of the tough variety. End of story.

12:58
tb.25: I can’t for the life of me remember why the Mets used that image. Do you, and if so, can you remind me?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: I don’t even remember at this point

12:58
Lemonade: After Segura, Jerry really doesn’t have anything that anyone else wants.  Do you think he moves Leake and Seager on the free because he can’t sit still?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I think Leake will go and the team will have trouble moving Seager

12:59
Dan Szymborski: The 3B market has been crappy for awhile

12:59
Brad: Should teams have caution about Syndergaard if the Mets really are motivated to move him?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: The Mets have also been motivated to pick up Jay Bruce at times and try to block Michael Conforto every way possible

1:00
Dan Szymborski: The Mets have also been m otivated to give 2018 Jason Vargas 20 starts

1:00
CamdenWarehouse: Mr. Met did a bad thing

1:00
Danny Ruskin: You haven’t seen the Virtual Rays Fan Experience, where you look at your watch a lot, and try to sneak past the 90-year-old usher down into the vacant lower level seats?   It’s got a kick-ass Tenchu: Stealth Assassins vibe.

1:00
Dbo: Have you seen the Philadelphia Flyers new mascot, will he and the Philadelphia fanatic team up and haunt children’s nightmares like Freddy Krueger?

1:00
Dan Szymborski: I’m already tired of the forced Gritty memes

1:00
A cat: My cat would not stop clawing the new couch. So I bought a small scratching post with a fuzzy ball on a string and put it next to the couch. She played with ball, eventually tore it off the string, ripped off the fuzzy cover and played with the rattle inside. Next I rubbed catnip all over the scratching post. She was delighted, sniffing and licking it, rubbing herself on it with delighted mews. Then she went over and clawed the couch.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: You just have to realize that you can’t have nice things *and* a cat

1:01
Questions Abound: Likelihood that Ryon Healy gets traded this offseason?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Fairly high I think and not for much

1:01
Dan Szymborski: In terms of trade value, he’s really just really-irish-sounding-Brandon-Moss

1:01
Lemonade: If Kyle Seager is on the opening day Mariner roster in 2019, that’s going to really feel like a dog having to wear a cone of shame, right?  You know Jerry offered to pay your whole salary and give up tickets to Neil Diamond and still nobody wanted you.

1:01
Evan: Going into his age-31 season with 1634 GP, does Justin Upton have a chance to set the record for most GP played by a non-HOFer not named Pete Rose or Barry Bonds (currently held by Vizquel at 2968)

1:02
Dan Szymborski: That’s still a lot of years

1:02
Matt: Would you agree that the likelihood is greater than 50% that a Mets player will spontaneously combust within the next 6 years? Similarly, would you agree that, should an MLB player spontaneously combust, the likelihood is 100% that that player would be a Met?

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Yes and yes, naturally

1:02
Dan Szymborski: OK, time for the LIghtning Round!

1:03
Dan Szymborski: As usual the rules are simple. Except for a few categories I don’t have to answer (work related, excessively personal, vulgar, politics), I have to answer every off-topic question during the Lightning Round, no matter how little insight I have into the subject.

1:03
976: Vegas shows: Penn & Teller, Le Reve, Absinthe, O, Ka.  Skip One, Mystere, Zumanity.  Optional: Love.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Not really interested in shows, honestly

1:03
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Thoughts on Magnus offering a draw in game 12 with a superior position just so he could destroy Fabi in Rapid?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: I thought he was in a strong position, but I’m also not sufficiently good at chess to be able to read a grandmaster’s mind, even in hindsight

1:03
Dan Szymborski: But he a terrific rapid player so you can see why.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: I think all championships should be rapid, a decidedly minority opinion

1:03
Homer: The only key ingredient in chili is the Guatemalan insanity pepper

1:04
Dan Szymborski: I’m just your memory. I can’t give you any new information.

1:04
Joe: What’s your deal with beans in chili?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: They’re morally and culinarily wrong.

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Chili is meat + chili peppers + seasoning

1:05
Matt: Lightning is dangerous, Dan

1:05
Dan Szymborski: SO I hear

1:05
Rockie Dangerfield: Did the Special Edition ending of Return of the Jedi suck?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: FREE SEBASTIAN SHAW

1:06
Dan Szymborski: If I saw Hayden Christensen I’d be thinking HOLY CRAP THE BAD GUYS WON

1:06
Danny Ruskin: Why would anyone ever use two straps and a barrel as an emergency substitute for clothes?  Just fashion the two straps into a sumo diaper and get on with your day.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: It comes from a time with far more barrel availability

1:06
Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure where you get a barrel in a pinch

1:07
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more likely you have to steal a milk crate thing from a grocery store dumpster and use it as a genital cage tied around your lower back

1:07
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Have you played Fallout: New Vegas? Worthwhile to do that before going to Vegas to learn the area landmarks. Plus it’s the ebst 3D Fallout.

1:07
Dan Szymborski: I actually skipped that one!

1:07
I’m not mean, just regressing: Why isn’t corn grown in winter?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Weather?

1:07
That Guy from Detroit: what if the chili has only beans

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Then it’s just beans

1:07
Matt: Hitler also preferred his chili without beans, Dan.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Hitler was a vegetarian.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: HITLER HAD THE BEANS-ONLY CHILI

1:08
Joe: Why, though? Why must we be shackled to idiosyncratic definitions of food? Hasn’t the humble sandwich been through enough, much less noble chili?

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Putting beans in chili is like putting nilla wafers in tacos.

1:08
Dbo: I feel like chili has taken over the food discussion and we overlook your other faults like saying that hot dogs are not sandwiches and pop tarts are raviolis

1:08
Lemonade: If a baby vomits on your shoulder is it cooler to leave it, so people know you are the kind of guy who takes care of your child, or mop it up, and have people think you are clean?

1:08
Dan Szymborski: I would clean it as it would be super gross

1:08
Gub Gub: If you paid for the rights to Disco Stu, would you rethink his position, and advertise?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Disco Stu doesn’t advertise and I’m not going to dilute his brand by pivoting to video.

1:09
That Guy from Detroit: I heard a bunch of barrels are available at Niagara Falls

1:09
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Have you played Red Dead Redemption 2 yet?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: I have not

1:09
Matt: Most scotch distilleries have barrels, Dan.

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but how many scotch distilleries are you going to find when you’re just roaming around in your local neighborhood and  ahve lost your clothes?

1:09
Matt : I just realized there is another matt in the chat, I’ve been outcompeted for questions by this other matt, what can I do Dan?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: Murder

1:10
Lemonade: When is chili just another word for sofrito?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Sofrito and chili aren’t the same

1:10
Rockie Dangerfield: Hitler wasn’t a strict vegetarian.  He ate a bullet at one point.

1:10
Dan Szymborski: But he didn’t digets it

1:10
Lemonade: If you could be raised by a spider that looks like an ant or an actual ant, which would you prefer?

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Spider. Spiders have a lot of practical weaving skills.

1:10
Dan Szymborski: Ants just teach you to work on a farm, which I don’t know if I’d like.

1:13
I’m not mean, just regressing: Which current Cub makes the best chili?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: Schwarber?

1:13
Matt: Whoa. Firsat you tell me you don’t like beans in chili. Then you tell me you don’t put Nilla Wafers on tacos?

1:13
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: How much easier is your job now that Meg replaced Cistulli?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: I don’t have to order holy water!

1:13
CamdenWarehouse: pop tarts are not raviolis. Raviolis are pop tarts!

1:14
Dbo: I’m flying out to Kettering, OH tomorrow, any food spots I should hit up besides Skylne Chili?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: El Meson

1:14
Matt: I’d like to log a complaint with Fangraphs that Dan Szymborski has advocated violence against me, the original Matt.

1:14
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t say which Matt should kill which Matt. That’s for you guys to work out between you

1:14
Rockie Dangerfield: If someone steals my identity and I subsequently hunt down and kill said identity thief, can I get away with it by claiming I legally killed myself, and suicide is not illegal?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you’d get away with it

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Since one of you would prove to not be you

1:15
Dan Szymborski: You can be arrested for having child pornography of yourself, for example

1:15
That Guy from Detroit: Jerry DiPoto traded the beans out of his chili

1:15
Gub Gub: Baby vomit smells bad. Leaving it there is not even an option

1:15
Joe: Ok, chunks of meat or ground meat in your chili?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Chunks of meat that are really soft because of the long cooking

1:15
Danny Ruskin: Forget the barrel! I’m saying you have two perfectly good straps.  They make legitimate clothes with less material.  Tuck your junk in that barrel-strap thong and move along.

1:15
Dan Szymborski: Sometimes people who run out of clothes in public are modest

1:16
P: Are you enjoying Fallout 76?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t played yet

1:16
Dan Szymborski: This is a bad time of year for me to start new games

1:16
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: My 18 month old nephew has a howitzer for an arm. How can I encourage him to keep throwing hard while also keeping all of the windows intact?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Have him throw the ball at your neighbors

1:16
Gub Gub: Where do you think you rank on the worldwide list of Beyonce impersonators?  Don’t be modest.

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Bottom third

1:16
Rocko: You’re armed with only Socker Boppers from the 90s. You must fend off zombie toddlers approaching you in hordes. How many do you annihilate before succumbing to lethal ankle bites?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Not many. You’d have to resort to smothering which isn’t good against gruops

1:16
Lemonade: Do you regard the Italians as a culinary backwater because they never realized how close they were to cooking chili?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: They didn’t put beans in, so they’re fine

1:17
Dbo: I feel like I’m in an episode with two clones and I have to shoot the evil one, WHICH MATT DO I SHOOT DAN?!?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: Both to be sure.  Haven’t you heard Benjamin Franklin’s quote that it’s better to stop two innocent Matts rather than let one go free?

1:17
Matt: Hypothetically, lets say that tomorrow, Chuck Schumer proposes a bill to congress banning all chili from *not* having beans. Is this something you’d be willing to sacrifice your life on? As a martyr to the sans-bean cause?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: No, I just wouldn’t eat chili

1:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a revolutionary.

1:17
Lemonade: Okay, suppose a baby raised on spider milk spits up on your shoulder?  Do you out it to the other ants?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Gross, still wiping it up

1:18
Gub Gub: Are you sure your parents didn’t give you Dinty Moore beef stew as a child and tell you it’s chili?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:18
I’m not mean, just regressing: Which would make baseball more watchable for non fans: 16 seconds between in-at-bat pitches, or 7 innings?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: quicker pitches. I don’t think it’s game length htat’s the problem, it’s the down time

1:18
That Guy from Detroit: Isn’t a pop-tart more of a pyrogi?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: pierogies are pop tarts

1:18
CamdenWarehouse: Have you considered selling your nephew to the military? Howitzer Arm cyborgs are right up their alley

1:18
Dan Szymborski: My nephew’s not quite born, so I’d need a lot of cooperation from my sister

1:19
Purple Mays Haze: If the original Mini Pops released a new album now would you buy it?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: As long as it’s the most explicit songs

1:19
Dan Szymborski: Kidz Bop Sings Lil John

1:19
Gub Gub: Remember when the Red Hot Chili Peppers put socks on their junk?  When will someone do the same thing, but with Hulk Hands?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised it hasn’t been done

1:19
Matt : I think one thing me and the fake Matt can agree on is no beans in chili ?

1:19
Rocko: Would you rather have a full Burt Reynolds moustache above your belly button or toes for fingers?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Reynolds moustache

1:20
Matt: Isn’t spider milk just Mountain Dew?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: Yes

1:21
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: My gf likes facts and her favorite subject is the civil war.  What’s a civil war fact I can use to appease her?

1:21
Dan Szymborski: after the battle of shiloh, some of the wounds attracted luminescent bacteria

1:21
CamdenWarehouse: I was talking to Ozzie, Dan

1:21
Danny Ruskin: Are mollusks just nature’s sandwiches?

1:21
Dan Szymborski: No, because you can’t eat the shells

1:22
jdavidreed: Chuck Klosterman or David Sedaris?   who makes a better sandwich?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: I think Klosterman

1:22
Lemonade: Did someone have a talk with Carson about the colored money in Canada and how everybody still loves the tragically hip?  I worry that he won’t be prepared.

1:22
Dan Szymborski: I think Carson will be down for this

1:22
Lemonade: When a bower bird makes a nest with beautifully curated trash, is that art?

1:22
Dan Szymborski: Not if there’s no artistic intent

1:22
Not the Ghost of Dan’s Grandma: Hey there, stranger, the only way to prove your true baseball fandom is by touching lips with me, a decidedly un-grandma-ish woman of vague Polish descent.

1:22
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t have a polish grandmother! Now I know you’re a liar, fake ghost

1:22
Matt: Imposter Matt has similarly wrong view on chili as you do, Dan. Are you guys going to get married, or what?

1:22
CT: RE: barrel availability: Home Depot sells barrels for your home garden as a wholly unnecessary aesthetic item. This is where you go for your barrel in a pinch.

1:22
Dan Szymborski: are the bottoms already out?

1:23
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Mountain Dew or Crab juice?

1:23
Dan Szymborski: crab juice

1:23
Internet Fun Lawyer: RE: Hulk Hands — copyright issues

1:23
Matt: “Friendly fire”. That’s a funny term, like civil war.

1:23
Planet Dust: I hope Carson is ready to start wearing a lot of ROOTS

1:23
isaacmeep: Fangraphs with a few spaces makes Fang Rap HS, which sounds like the most badass high school in the country.

1:23
That Guy from Detroit: “are the bottoms already out” — same old refrain, Dan

1:23
Dan Szymborski: If I dont’ have clothes, I want to make sure kicking otu the bottom of a barrel won’t be too hard

1:23
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how good the cooper that home depot uses is.

1:23
Dan Szymborski: OK END CHAT

1:23
Dan Szymborski: GO AWAY

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at FanGraphs all-the-time now, whether that’s to your benefit or not.

We hoped you liked reading Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/18 by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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rosen380
Member

RE: the 10 win player trade.

While there is some benefit to the 10 win player over two fives because of roster constraints, you also diversified your risk a bit. Lets say an average position player has a 2% chance of sustaining a major injury that will cost them a full season.

With a 10 win player, you have exactly that, a 2% chance of getting 0 wins and 98% for 10 wins. With two five win players it would work out to :
96.04% for 10 wins
3.92% for 5 wins
0.04% for 0 wins

Over a large enough sample you end up at 9.8 wins either way, but the latter almost completely avoids the -10 win scenario