Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/2/13

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Mike
Guest
Mike

I’ve got a MI keepers logjam. All getting paid $5. 12 team 5×5. Who do you like out of Rutledge , Lowrie, and Walker.

Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles

Keep Walker, Lowrie is very injury prone and Rutledge is certainly not as good as his 2012 debut.

Tomcat
Guest
Tomcat

Why is Rutledge not as good as his debut?

Tomcat
Guest
Tomcat

Rutledge had 670PA between AA/MLB he had 185 Hits 76 were for XBH and he stole 21 bases and was caught 4 times.

Considering that his previous career high in PA was 500 it is no surprise that he wore out in September when he had 140PA and played in 32G at SS and hit .197/.248/.288 with a .258BABIP and was visibly exhausted.

If you take September out of the equation you have a guy on a 25/25 pace with a .317BA who hits XBH at a rate of 41% whether you are in a 5×5 or OPS/XBH league Rutledge is worth keeping.

Also he is SS and 2B eligible and is a line drive hitter who is penciled in as the #2 hitter in front of Cargo and Tulo. I don’t know that Rutledge will hit .315 but I think a .300/18/90/18/70 year is totally doable.

Tomcat
Guest
Tomcat

Additionally Rutledge is likely to be the primary back up SS in the coming years and is unlikely to lose SS eligibility

James
Guest
James

“I think a .300/18/90/18/70 year is totally doable”

So you think Rutledge is a top 3 2B?

ralph
Guest
ralph

There’s some Rutledge discussion going in the Kipnis Rotographs article… but this upside is what makes Rutledge so tantalizing.

I don’t think there’s anything in his 2012 MLB numbers that absolutely screams regression based on his excellent minor league track record. And if you prorate his 2012 MLB numbers to 650 PA, these are his numbers: .274/18/83/16/83 — a little short on the .300 AVG, but I think Tomcat’s numbers are clearly doable, if not a fair expectation.

Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles

Rutledge is not that talented, he never was highly regarded. His lack of strike zone control will be exploited and his raw tools won’t make up the difference. I’ll be shocked if he is a star let alone an above average MLB 2B.

Tomcat
Guest
Tomcat

It depends I think if he hits well enough to hit behind Fowler but in front of Cargo and Tulo he will have a good chance at really good counting stats as he has good speed and squares the ball up well.

His BB% are bad but I think he gets them up to 7% range this year and his XBH ratio since changing his stance halfway through the season in Modesto is off the chart. His August .317/.333/.598 came with a .328BABIP so it isn’t like it was all luck driven.

To me his bat is very similar to Michael Young’s and considering he plays half his games at Coors I see him having big fantasy upside.

Tomcat
Guest
Tomcat

BTW the Rockies had 4 .390+ wOBA hitters on their 07 WS that never made a BA top 100 list in Hawpe, Atkins and Holliday so Rutledge never being a high profile guy doesn’t bother me at all.