Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/15/15

12:43
Dan Szymborski: Welcome to my special Late Edition of Szymborski Chat!

12:44
Dan Szymborski: STOP THE TOP OF THE HOUR DRIVEN PATRIARCHY

12:44
Comment From Matt Damon
MATT. DAMON.

12:44
Comment From BK
Mathematically, what are the odds that the Blue Jays never lose a baseball game again?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Fairly low, naturally. They still have Estrada.

12:45
Comment From Josh G
Is Jason Heyward going to turn his season around?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: I’m bearish on Heyward, he can’t even blame BABIP or anything

12:46
Dan Szymborski: This is his 5th year of not matching his rookie season, I’m starting to think he is what he is

12:47
Comment From stevey
SKOARE MOR RUNZ PLEAIZE

12:47
Comment From Brock Holt
AM I BEN ZOBRIST YET?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go too nuts about Brock Holt! quite yet.

12:49
Comment From Josh G
Who leads the Cubbies in saves from this day forward?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I’ll pick Soriano, simply because I think that at some point this season, he’ll get a chance to be the exclusive closer dude.

12:49
Comment From joe
should i put ian desmond on my bench and see how correa performs? desmond has been awful this year

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Going forward, I expect them to perform similarly.

12:50
Comment From Bob
Now that the Jays have shown that a positive run differential will eventually result in upward regression in their team record, can we expect Oakland to go on a similar-ish run?

12:50
Dan Szymborski: We should expect them to match their pythag going forward, not catch up to it. The hole’s too deep.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: They essentially have to win 2/3 of games or so to win 90 games. I think that’s unrealistic even if they play somewhat better

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Say that play better and go 52-45 the rest of the way. So they end up 78-85. So f’in what? They’re not going to chase that – Beane’s likely to do some cashing in

12:52
Dan Szymborski: (We’re still having the Lightning Round, which I ‘m saving off-topic Qs for, it’s just as 145 instead of 100)

12:52
Comment From Bobbeh
With Aaron Sanchez going to the DL, the Jays rotation has both Marco Estrada and Scott Copeland in it for the foreseeable future. Do the Jays pull the trigger on an ace yet?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: They might, but they tend to follow up active periods with doing nothing.

12:53
Comment From j6takish
Why didn’t the red sox just sign hanley to play third base instead of signing an inferior player in sandoval are just sticking hanley wherever?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: That was my complaint this winter.

12:54
Comment From Josh G
How worried are you about Altuve and Carlos Gomez going forward with their ailments?

12:54
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either are serious enough to worry about long-term, especially in Altuve’s case.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: Hammys will get pulled and hips will get whatever the hell you call those injuries generically

12:55
Comment From hscer
Does a player’s stats from games 1-161 have more effect on his ZiPS for the current season or the next season?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Current season – in-season is a bit stickier than season-to-season

12:55
Comment From joe
weekly lineup: noah syndergaard (2 starts) or garret richards this week?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: Thor.

12:55
Comment From Jose
Can we stop calling the AL East a weak division?

12:55
Dan Szymborski: No, it’s a mediocre one. There are no horrific teams, but nobody’s really all that good either.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: The whole AL kinda sucks right now.

12:56
Comment From JohnnyScallops
What do you do if you are the mets? they cant face the braves bullpen every game and i think they should just assume wright doesnt come back. is there any credit to buster olney’s owner-shaming? will they literally do nothing again?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Mets are hard to predict because of the more complex interplay with the front office and ownership

12:56
Comment From Guest
What trade do the Cardinals make?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: I think Cards are fairly quiet.

12:56
Comment From PieTraynee
Do the Pirates catch the Cards? How does that division stack up at the end of the regular season?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: I think the division is stacking up about as expected.

12:56
Comment From Xolo
Is Matt Kemp hurt? Players don’t just fall off like that, right?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility, especially given that he has an old body and a number of chronic conditions

12:58
Dan Szymborski: It’s quite shocking how bad he’s been. I was arguably the most negative about the Padres picking up Kemp as any analysts, to the extent that some people though I had a bizarre grudge against Kemp for some reason. And he’s been *waaay* worse than my limited expectations even

12:58
Comment From stevey
Why did the Phillies have Kevin Correia start a game for them? He has no upside, is old, and sucks… Makes no sense for a rebuilding team to roster him. Why not just let one of their minor league guys take his spot? or a semi-interesting reclamation project?!?!

12:58
Dan Szymborski: The Phillies aren’t well-run, creative, or realistic.

12:59
Comment From Masshole
Is there a way to capture Boston’s total emotional meltdown in stats? Like, their stats say they should be better, but no one expects them to play up to their full abilities when they’re recovering from that mess.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Sadness Index would be fun. Combination of underperformance compared to projections, recent performance, high salary.

12:59
Comment From Schmesh
Do you think the Braves can challenge NYM/WAS for the east?

12:59
Dan Szymborski: Can? Yes. Weird things happen all the time. I don’t think it’s particularly likely they’re hanging around in September.

1:01
Comment From Lukas
Do you think the Mets will be able to add a bat?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ll do much cart upsetting

1:01
Comment From Optimistic Jays Fan
What’s the record for lowest amount of saves in a season for a winning record team? Will the Jays beat them?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Well, a whole bunch of teams before 1940

1:02
Dan Szymborski: Going back to 1980, it would be the 1980 A’s, 83-79 with 13 saves.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Wild card era and 90 wins, the 2011 Rays went 91-71 with 32 saves.

1:03
Comment From Lars
Jeff Sullivan posited that the Padres could call the Mariners about Chris Taylor – would he actually be an upgrade, and what sort of return could the Mariners see?

1:04
Dan Szymborski: Maybe some kind of challenge trade with a comparable prospect, but the Padres lost a lot of their depth

1:04
Dan Szymborski: They certainly wouldn’t give up Renfroe or Hedges or Turner.

1:04
Comment From Cory
Does papelbon make the jays a real contender? And what are the chances stroman comes back in September ?

1:05
Dan Szymborski: They’re a game out in a mediocre division – they’re a real AL East contender now.

1:06
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Papelbon doesn’t drastically change the team’s hopes – the team’s pitching problems are far more starter related.

1:06
Comment From Wood
Would you drop any of Quintana, McHugh or Rodon to pick up Syndergaard?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: Rodon, assuming we’re talking about redraft. Fact remains he’s in a tough park with a meh defense

1:07
Comment From Guest
Trevor Rosenthal has a 0.59 ERA. What is his RoS ERA?

1:07
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the ZiPS 2.58 is unreasonable.

1:08
Comment From Wood
Better bench option: Kang or Boegarts? I have Desmond as my SS

1:08
Dan Szymborski: Bogaerts if your team is cruising, Kang if you need upside.

1:08
Comment From Mijo
What are the chances Justin Smoak has actually turned his career around?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: His BABIP is 100 points over his career average. He’s done enough to put us in the wait-and-see category, but not enough to start throwing parades.

1:09
Comment From Kris
The Mariners have managed to have Smoak, Montero, Ackley, Zunino, etc. through their system without getting hardly any value from the bunch. It has to be a development issue, right?

1:09
Dan Szymborski: They’ve had so many players regress while going through the system that you at least have to wonder, without going into exact specifics

1:11
Dan Szymborski: And it’s hardly just these guys.

1:12
Comment From Selling
Which team could use Carlos Gomez the most? Twins?

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Twins could certainly use him – even with Buxton up their OF is kinda lame

1:12
Dan Szymborski: Tigers would be fun but I don’t think they *could* even land him

1:13
Comment From Guest
Best releiver in MLB so far this season?

1:13
Dan Szymborski: Betances

1:13
Comment From Previous Chat Reader/Ignorer
What are the inner workings of FG Web Site plz advise

1:13
Dan Szymborski: Heh

1:14
Comment From Curtis
Just tuned in…did McClendon get fired? will he or Farrell go first?

1:14
Dan Szymborski: He’s still sadly employed last I checked. Lloyd goes first though – Jack Z’s going to have to be in survival mode

1:14
Comment From zackleftyp
Julio Teheran: are you more pessimistic than ZiPS for his ROS performance?

1:15
Dan Szymborski: I was, but his ZiPS RoS has slowly gotten worse.

1:15
Comment From Cory
Does Dan Norris land a frontline pitcher

1:15
Dan Szymborski: It might if the teams with frontline pitchers were realistic.

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Hamels and Cueto are the best pitchers conceivably acquirable. And they’re both in two of the most deluded organizations in baseball

1:16
Comment From Sean
If you assume Goldschmidt follows the ZIPS projection for the rest of the year, he’ll finish with a .325 average. Is it kind of mind blowing to you that Goldschmidt is a legitimate candidate for a .330 season?

1:16
Dan Szymborski: Well, he hit .300 each of the last two seasons, so having a .325 isn’t exactly a crazy finish for a 27 year old!

1:16
Comment From bagman
Do you see the Cubs current lack of depth on the bench as a massive problem for a team with almost 70% chance of making the playoffs?

1:17
Dan Szymborski: It’s an issue, but there are many teams with way worse depth that are in contention. I wouldn’t put them as one of the notorious bad depth contenders

1:17
Comment From JohnnyScallops
Thoughts on Robbie Ray? He’s milb stats looked much better this year, and has prospect pedigree. Decent SSS results in the bigs thus far. Could he be a useful starter going forward?

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Still meh so far. He struck out a ton of guys in the minors but he walked a fug’ton too.

1:18
Comment From Bruce Bochy
Can my second baseman keep up his great season including the power? Or should i start paniking…

1:18
Dan Szymborski: Not the level he’s at but he’s closer to Joe Kool than Joe Panik right now.

1:18
Comment From Concerned Fantasy Owner
Just traded away Tanaka to get Dee Gordon, good SP for Hitter deal?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: It’s reasonable – Gordon’s typically better in fantasy than real life. Though his defense has been shockingly good

1:19
Comment From hscer
STL is the only .600 team in baseball…and they have a .661 win%

1:19
Comment From Sandy Kazmir
Any chance you read this and had any thoughts about it? https://dockoftherays.wordp…

1:19
Dan Szymborski: I have not read it, but the link is up here for everyone!

1:19
Comment From zackleftyp
Is JJ Hardy essentially a replacement-level SS for the rest of his career?

1:19
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far yet

1:20
Comment From Charles Bronson
AJ Preller told fans at an event the other day that he’s searching for a shortstop. Anyone you see as standing out as a target? And how screwed are the Padres exactly with that Kemp contract?

1:20
Dan Szymborski: We talked a bit about Chris Taylor – he’s actually a fairly practical target

1:20
Dan Szymborski: One issue is that with baseball so mediocre right now. Excuse me, so *competitive* right now, is that there are very few true loser teams right now

1:21
Dan Szymborski: Zobrist is anotherreasonable target

1:22
Dan Szymborski: The standings/quality are such that the only teams that should be thinking of giving up on the season are Oakland, Miami, Philadephia, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Colorado

1:23
Comment From Curioso
Should the Jays trade high on Colabello?

1:23
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but nobody’s going to buy high so it’s pointless

1:23
Comment From hscer
At least Sandoval can’t hit right-handed. It’s far worse to be unable to hit left-handed as a “switch” hiter

1:24
Comment From Randy Savage
Trea Turner finally does not belong to the Padres anymore.

1:24
Dan Szymborski: That was the joke.

1:24
Dan Szymborski: Since the trade finally happened.

1:24
Dan Szymborski: After them holding onto him forever after everyone knew he was traded.

1:24
Comment From Ben
Is Tanaka’s arm going to fall off this season? Velo is up and seems healthy but who knows nowadays with him.

1:25
Dan Szymborski: He’s looked fine, but we should worry about every pitcher and there’s reason to worry about him

1:25
Comment From Sean
Re: the Mariners system, what specifics *could* there be to wonder about? The lack of production from highly touted prospects is unbelievable. Is there anything out there that has studied this (with any team)?

1:25
Dan Szymborski: I mean I can’t tell you exactly which people in house are the issue there

1:25
Comment From MD
Is this the year the Phillies finally make the right moves in July? This is Ruban’s last chance, again.

1:25
Dan Szymborski: No.

1:25
Comment From Julio Pepper
Why is Rajai Davis such a bad fielder? Isn’t being fast as hell a ton of it in the OF?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: It’s helpful, but not sufficient. Alex Sanchez sucked too.

1:26
Comment From Isaac+S.
me and my friends started a baseball podcast and have been trying to get interviews with players but to no avail. any suggestions on how to contact players?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: Contact team media relations

1:26
Comment From Koolaid
Can you explain which stats are a “metric” and which are a “peripheral” for dummies like me?

1:26
Dan Szymborski: Depends on context.

1:27
Comment From The Boat
Everybody talking about Scott Kazmir being traded, pretending like Jesse Chavez doesn’t have a 2:80 FIP. Good fit for maybe the Royals?

1:29
Dan Szymborski: I can’t see the Royals doing it. Here’s the thing – the guys that are supposed to suck are’t, the guys that are supposed to be good suck, and the guys that are supposed to suck and do have contracts that will make the ROyals keep running them out tehre

1:29
Dan Szymborski: Now, if Vargas and Duffy have setbacks, maybe

1:29
Comment From coach
Jays would be most fun to land Gomez, just score all the runs

1:29
Comment From Bret
Is Josh Donaldson going to win the AL MVP?

1:29
Dan Szymborski: Probably not

1:30
Dan Szymborski: Even if he earns it

1:30
Comment From Bob
Frustrated Mariners fan here. If we continue to tank, it seems like we could sell quite a few players and reap the rewards of the seller’s market. Isn’t that a paradox though? How do we have so many players that could help contenders, but the team is performing so poorly?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: I don’t the M’s will sell. They’ll just awkwardly not buy

1:30
Comment From Koolaid
Is Gallo going to match his minors BB%-K% in the majors as if there’s zero level difference? I assume there’s some model saying that ratio should at least worsen a little bit when promoted? Also given the small sample size and glut of errors, how does DRS already have Gallo at a +1?

1:30
Dan Szymborski: It worsens some, but people overreact about K/BB in the minors.

1:31
Comment From Bob
We’ve seen Beltre, basically a hall of fame third baseman, have a terrible career at Safeco. Now we’ve seen Smoak break out after leaving Seattle. Can it really come down to Safeco? Do certain types of players change their approach when Safeco is their home field? Is that why?

1:31
Dan Szymborski: I think you’re stretching the thesis too far. Beltre’s Mariners offense looked just like his Dodgers offense, with the exception of one crazy year

1:32
Comment From Ben
Guesstimate for when Corey Seager comes to the show?

1:32
Dan Szymborski: He could contribute now but he’s not a great roster fit. No sense to have Seager in the majors to be a role player

1:33
Comment From Skuggs
Do you guys call Sullivan “Sully”?

1:33
Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I know two guys named Sullivan and one typically goes by Sully anyway.

1:33
Comment From Depression
Are the Mariners still in it enough to target Navarro?

1:33
Dan Szymborski: If the price is right

1:33
Comment From Oboy
Devon Travis will be returning hopefully this week. Can we expect him to return to his potential ROY season? Or will he continue his free fall?

1:33
Dan Szymborski: The ROY doesn’t have a lot of competition – he’s the favorite

1:34
Comment From Raoul Duke
What’s up with Adam Laroche? Is this just what he is now, or is there reason to hope?

1:35
Dan Szymborski: He has a 114 OPS+. His career OPS+ is 114. His ZIPS projected OPS+ was 116. He’s 35. He’s on pace for almost the exact bWAR as last year. LaRoche is exactly the player he was that the White Sox paid for and if they expected more, that’s on them

1:36
Comment From Wuttang
How is AJ Burnett this much better than last year? Yes, he was injured but that and the better infield defenders + shifts can’t make this big a difference?

1:36
Dan Szymborski: His control has been on point

1:36
Comment From bobbyv530
Shouldn’t the White Sox be giving up too? They’re an awful hitting/contact team along with hurting my eyes

1:36
Dan Szymborski: At 7 games back, they still have a chance

1:36
Comment From Bret
I dunno the Phillies might really like Colabello.

1:37
Comment From baltic+wolf
Phil Hughes has been a huge disappointment for my fantasy team. Have you updated your ZIPs projections on him? ZIPs projects his K rate to rebound nicely but with both his four and two seamers having lost velocity and thus whiffs it’s hard to see how that happens.

1:37
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS updates daily. I’m more pessimistic than ZiPS now.

1:37
Dan Szymborski: He looks like he’s hit that Josh Towers issue of having his control be too good

1:37
Comment From rustydude
Can a player really sport a 41.7% ROS strikeout rate and still expect to get regular playing time?

1:37
Dan Szymborski: In 2015, possibly

1:38
Comment From The Boat
Does anybody have any idea what happened to Stephen Drew? The guy’s career looks over despite the 9 HR…because he missed a Spring Training once? Forgot how to hit? Whayt exactly is the deal?

1:38
Dan Szymborski: I think his skills are declining *and* he’s had some horrid luck

1:39
Dan Szymborski: He wouldn’t be the first middle infielder to lose it at 31/32 and he won’t be the last

1:39
Comment From Disgruntled Ms Fan
In your recent article for ESPN, you wrote how packages like Adam Jones+ for 1 year of Erik Bedard just don’t happen anymore. But the M’s traded for TWO YEARS of Bedard!

1:39
Dan Szymborski: That was my fault – I changed the structure around and used the wrong example. Long story there.

1:40
Comment From Jays fan
Cueto and Chapman seem perfect for the Blue Jays…what should they be willing to give up? Norris and Pompey?

1:40
Dan Szymborski: That’s too rich.

1:40
Comment From hscer
another sadness index: amount of money a player costs himself in free agency during his walk year. call it the Desmond Index

1:40
Comment From Randy Savage
Should I feel dumb for dropping Gallo for Franco?

1:40
Dan Szymborski: Franco is a safer no choice

1:40
Comment From Glenallen Hill
Wrigley field plays either pitcher friendly or hitter friendly depending on the wind, which generally evens out over the course of a season. Is it possible that the new bleachers and scoreboard block the wind coming in and skew it more to hitter friendly?

1:40
Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly possible

1:40
Comment From Thanlon
Do you feel Mike Leake might be one of the most sought after pitchers at the deadline? Certainly decent production without breaking the bank. I would imagine he would get a lot of calls from competitive teams that don’ t wish to enter the Hamels sweepstakes. Thoughts?

1:41
Dan Szymborski: He’ll get interest, but he’s really not all that exciting

1:41
Comment From James
More likely target for the Giants: Cueto, Samardzija or Leake?

1:41
Dan Szymborski: Cueto the most interesting. I’m still not sure the REds are truly realistic though

1:41
Comment From Redstorm
Do you think Buxton stays with the Twins? If he does, what kind of stat line do you project ROS?

1:41
Dan Szymborski: I think he does and I wrote about it this weekend.

1:42
Comment From Ben
Do we see Schwarber anytime soon for the cubs?

1:42
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think this year

1:43
Comment From Seth
Think it makes sense for the Astros to go after Cueto/Hamels or someone in Tier 2?

1:43
Dan Szymborski: Go for broke as long as we’re not talking about Correa

1:43
Comment From Mijo
Just read an article about Montreal being an option for the Rays. Odds this happens?

1:44
Dan Szymborski: Low. I think MLB would prefer to blackmail Florida residents than revisit Montreal

1:44
Dan Szymborski: (Sorry Jonah)

1:44
Comment From Sosa
Unlikely Gallo gets sent back down? Can’t see any advantage in sending down a top prospect when he is holding his own.

1:44
Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing – with a full roster it’s hard to find time for him

1:45
Dan Szymborski: Though it might be entertaining to just stick him at second and see what happens.

1:45
Comment From EC
Is Danny Espinosa the next Ben Zobrist?

1:45
Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go nuts. Unless you’re talking “disappointing acquisition when he’s 34”

1:45
Comment From Ol Sea Capn
Colin McHugh is throwing a full run ERA above his FIP and xFIP… what is going on here? Bad luck or do the baseball gods hate him?

1:46
Dan Szymborski: The FIP Gods are cruel.

1:46
Dan Szymborski: Dont’ believe me? Look at poor Jeremy Hellickson

1:47
Comment From hscer
#BlackmailFlorida

1:47
Comment From rustydude
Rays move to Montreal? I see Jonah Keri warming up a book idea to his publishers.

1:47
Comment From Ebi
Can the Rangers even consider Gallo at 2nd? (they just recalled Odor again)

1:47
Dan Szymborski: I swear I didn’t see this before I wrote that!

1:47
Comment From L. Scott
Rollins will continue to struggle. When will we see Corey Seager? Sorry if this was already asked, just got here.

1:48
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re going to continue to go with Rollins, though it would be fun to go full bore

1:48
Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’m underestimating those odds – the Dodgers new FO *is* bold

1:48
Dan Szymborski: OK, time for the Lightning Round.

1:48
Dan Szymborski: The rule for the Lightning Round is that I have to answer *every* non-baseball Q, with a few obvious exceptions (work related reasons, very explicit, etc).

1:49
Dan Szymborski: Also, I will not post Game of Thrones questions that contain obvious spoilers to people who have not seen the season finale yet, PERSON WHO JUST DID THAT

1:49
Comment From Cain Marko
In a July 2011 chat transcript with Jonah Keri he said he would take Bourn over Trout for the next three years, oops.

1:49
Dan Szymborski: I hated Galarraga to Braves and preferred Wilkerson to Soriano.

1:50
Comment From Druid
How do you use crafting in hearthstone? And when do you recommend a new player start crafting?

1:50
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, use the dust to craft specific cards that you need but haven’t dropped

1:51
Dan Szymborski: But Hearthstone isn’t really free to play – you either pay with money or you pay with time.

1:52
Dan Szymborski: If you like it, it’s worth putting some money into – it’s a long grind if you never put a dime in and you’ll be mostly limited to aggro decks until then

1:52
Dan Szymborski: (Still cheaper than Magic in which common popular decks start at like $75)

1:53
Dan Szymborski: Your best bet at grinding are zoolock, face hunter, mid hunter

1:53
Dan Szymborski: You do want to play at least a couple of the naxx wings – haunted creeeper, mad scientist, sludge belcher, loatheb all key cards in a ton of decks

1:54
Dan Szymborski: and BRM, Thaurissan is very useful and imp gang boss is an excellent zoo card.

1:54
Comment From Guest
What video games are you playing this week?

1:54
Dan Szymborski: Currently playing Heroes of Might & Magic 5. Will probably play some Hearthstone.

1:54
Comment From jocephus
FALLOUT 4!!!!

1:54
Dan Szymborski: That’s a declaration, not a question

1:55
Comment From Sean
I know you like GoT – have you ever read The Name of the Wind? Excellent fantasy series, currently awaiting the third book.

1:55
Dan Szymborski: I have not. Will look it up

1:55
Comment From Nick
Best uniform in baseball?

1:55
Dan Szymborski: 80s brewers

1:55
Comment From rustydude
How many days would have to elapse before you would consider swimming on the North Carolina shoreline? BTW, the beaches and surf in NC are excellent!

1:56
Dan Szymborski: I’d probably wait a few weeks

1:56
Comment From zackleftyp
Why Dan? Just, why?

1:56
Dan Szymborski: Having a designated time for off-topic Qs keeps chats from being a lot of them

1:57
Dan Szymborski: Since I started doing Lightning Round, I only get a few off-topic ones asked where I used to have to sift through dozens

1:57
Comment From DW
did you lose your virginity to a virgin?

1:57
Dan Szymborski: No.

1:57
Comment From Rod Munch
Is it wrong to hope for a major sports championship to be decided via a Dusty Finish?

1:57
Dan Szymborski: Not at all.

1:57
Dan Szymborski: I’m hoping for a few Dusty Finishes in Game of Thrones

1:57
Comment From Sean
I’m getting back into Hearthstone – I don’t have either expansion. I currently have a level 16 mage, level 8 priest, and level 6 warrior. Should I keep developing one of those classes or should I start developing a hunter or warlock? If I’m going to drop $20-25, should I buy Naxx or a bunch of packs?

1:58
Dan Szymborski: Naxx is definitely worth it.

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I tell people that if you’re going to play Hearthstone a lot, be prepared to put $100 in it. You save way more than $100 worth of time

1:59
Comment From Ben
Are you a video gamer? If so what console/games?

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Yes. I’ve owned Atari 2600, Coleco, NES, Genesis, Turbografx 16, Super NES, Saturn, Game Boy, Game Boy Advance, DS, N64, PlayStation 1,2,3, PSP.

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Am I forgetting one? I didn’jt have a gamecube

2:00
Comment From Nick
Wine or beer?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Beer

2:01
Comment From Bob
Hawks and Warriors?

2:01
Dan Szymborski: Yes, those are two NBA teams.

2:01
Comment From Jheff
Would Cueto and Chapman make the Jays the best team in the AL?

2:01
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good case it would

2:01
Comment From MotorboatJones
Do any fangraphs writers like jazz? That could be a thing

2:02
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know enough about FG writer musical teastes.

2:02
Comment From stdeve
butts

2:02
Comment From Wuttang
Best game u played that’s non fantasy AND non sci-fi.

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Crusader Kings 2? Or does that count as fantasy since it’s alternate history?

2:02
Comment From Ben
Are you a hockey fan, will you watch the cup tonighT?

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Haven’t been into NHL since the 90s

2:02
Comment From JohnnyScallops
jaws on limited release at select theaters around the country this sunday and next tuesday. You checking it out?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Never really care for the genre

2:03
Comment From Isaac+S.
how do i get the most out of OOTP16

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Playing it?

2:03
Comment From rustydude
If you were an escapee from a state prison, would you head for Canada, Mexico or some other place?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Depends how severe what I did was.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s best to go out west and live off the grid somewhere

2:04
Comment From Wuttang
Your goto dish u can cook for guests and be proud about?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t care for cooking for guests.

2:04
Comment From Bob
I’ve been getting back into Rift lately, since WoW bores me. I tried Rift back when it first came out, and decided I didn’t have the time to play both WoW and Rift, and stuck with WoW. But with WoW in doldrums right now, I went back. Rift is surprisingly fun so far. They seem to have done the F2P thing quite well. Curious to see if the experience holds up at the raiding level.

2:04
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t played Rift. I come back and play WOW for a bit every expansion, but I’m not really into raiding

2:04
Comment From Bob
I want to get into Hearthstone this summer. I play a druid deck because my WoW main is a druid. What’s my best bet with a druid deck?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Fast druid – get board control with Force of Nature/Savage Roar as your win conditions.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Ramp is feasible, but you tend to need bigger, more expensive cards

2:06
Comment From Cain Marko
Would you buy chicken from that creepy colonel in the kfc commercials?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Creepy Colonels have a good fried chicken record

2:06
Comment From L. Scott
Escaped convicts. Caught before July 01, after July 01, or never?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Before

2:06
Comment From Randy Savage
Are you a Fallout fan? Just saw the release date is this November

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I’ll play it, but it’s not my genre so it’s not going to be as great for me as some others

2:07
Comment From zackleftyp
favorite rapper?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: You guys are making me answer “not really my genre” a whole bunch.

2:07
Comment From jocephus
fallout…4?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Yes 4.

2:07
Comment From JohnnyScallops
you ever play munchkin zombies?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: No

2:07
Comment From hscer
name a southern state

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Alabama

2:07
Comment From Kirk
Is it possible to stop at 7-11 on a hot summer day without buying a Slurpee? I argue it is not.

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I don’t like frozen drinks. Too cold.

2:08
Comment From L. Scott
If you are traveling in a vehicle at the speed of light and you turn your lights on, will anything happen?

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Insufficient data.

2:08
Comment From Wuttang
I’m afraid to commit to long games DAI, Witcher3 etc. nowadays. Am I a result of the mobile gaming short attention span generation? Any hope for me?

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, all that’s left is to drink yourself to death with a stripper.

2:08
Comment From Jo Jo Dancer
Ray Donovan and Peaky Blinders both better than Sopranos IMO – blasphemy??

2:09
Dan Szymborski: YOu’re including Sopranos decline phase though

2:09
Comment From Ben
You can only see one of the 3 movies which one are you seeing, Spectre, Star Wars, or Ted 2?

2:09
Dan Szymborski: Star Wars

2:09
Comment From Randy Savage
Re: Fallout 4 – I love that they waited to announce it, and now its going to be available in 5 months

2:09
Comment From Sean
I don’t know if I plan on playing Hearthstone a lot – it’s just very nice to place when I travel for work (which is often). Even then, you think Naxx is better than the equivalent amount in packs?

2:09
Dan Szymborski: Yes. Lots of useful cards in Naxx – Sludge Belcher, Haunted Creeper, Mad Scientist, Zombie Chow

2:11
Dan Szymborski: Shade of Naxxramas is useful. Duplicate has its moments. Spectral Knight isn’t in a lot of decks, but it’s playable

2:11
Dan Szymborski: And Loatheb

2:11
Comment From zackleftyp
you were never a Sega Dreamcast guy?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t have one and it kinda went out before I got around to getting it

2:11
Comment From Ebi
Looking forward to anything in e3?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: Nothing in particular

2:11
Comment From Kirk
How much wood could an Alex Wood chuck if an Alex Wood could chuck wood?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: An average amount

2:11
Comment From Bob
Have you asked Blizzard if they would be willing to sponsor your chat?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Hey, we’re in the off-topic portion!

2:12
Comment From hscer
did you ever play Age of Empires II

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:12
Comment From Ben
Threw about 40 peanuts at a guy wearing a votto jersey in the bleachers this weekend. Dick move or good fun?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Nobody gets hurt by peanuts unles you’re really good at throwing them

2:12
Dan Szymborski: This is the reminder that this is the Lightning Round, so off-topic questions are on-topic and vice-versa

2:12
Comment From Mijo
Pros/Cons for retiring at 25

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Depends on the job. Money is an issue and for a player, you’re giving up the thing you are likely the best at and will be the most famous for

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Though in football especially, there’s a serious health issue

2:13
Comment From Paladin
If I bought the expansions, better off spending money on arena admission or decks?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: I’d split between arena and classic packs

2:14
Dan Szymborski: Arena only giving GvG really hurts arena as a good place to get practice *and* get decks.

2:14
Dan Szymborski: I’d do arena until I had all the cards I really wanted from GvG

2:14
Comment From JohnnyScallops
did you want the entire 3rd season of OITB over the weekend?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: I did not as I had a lot of stuff to do. I think my mom did, I’d have to ask her

2:15
Comment From Ebi
scariest game you’ve completed?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Adventure. Hey, those dragons popping out at youj after the bat takes your arrow is scary as shit when you’re 5

2:15
Comment From C
do you play the arena in hearthstone?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:15
Comment From Paladin
What’s the point of Zombie Chow? Don’t you give back the damage it did when it dies?

2:16
Dan Szymborski: Board control. Health is irrelevant early – you use it for favorabler trades of aggro decks.

2:16
Dan Szymborski: If your Zombie Chow actually has the chance to do 5 damage to face, you’re likely so far ahead that the 5 damage being healed is irrelevant becuase you’ll have firm board control

2:17
Comment From Guest
Did you buy the Age of Empires 2 release on Steam? Totally worth it.

2:17
Dan Szymborski: I think I did. I’m nto sure. My steam library is massive. I think I’ve owned it in multiple format

2:18
Comment From Cain Marko
Sheamus a good choice as Mr. MITB?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: Could be fun, he’s one of the better big dudes around

2:18
Comment From hscer
I was terrible at AOE2. I also hit a rut because once you go Hun (expansion), it’s hard to bother building houses again.

2:18
Comment From Sean
Thanks for answering my Hearthstone questions; one last question: should I gravitate towards lock/hunter, stick to my leveled classes, or just go with it?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: Play it as you go – it’s fun. I’m just saying that if you’re grinding out things, you can build more complete zoolock/hunter decks quicker

2:18
Comment From Mike
Will Lindor end up a top 15 ss?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: I think so

2:19
Comment From Bryan
You’re leaving out a ton of the class cards that are great from Nax. Webspinner, Dark Cultist, Void Caller, Death’s Bite, and Avenge are all great too. Basically if you are serious about Hearthstone, you should get Nax.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, those are all great, though I don’t care as much for avenge

2:19
Dan Szymborski: Death’s Bite is a huge warrior card

2:19
Dan Szymborski: It’s quite noticeable relative to Blackrock Mountain

2:20
Dan Szymborski: In BRM there are what, 5 topnotch cards?

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Too many of the BRM cards would be good in a deck together, but the deck together is generally too slow without enough anti-aggro defense

2:21
Comment From Bryan
Yeah, but Avenge is great in Arena. I guess I’ve never used it in constructed.

2:22
Comment From hscer
Would politics be better if the U.S. switched to consuls?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Not really

2:22
Comment From Ebi
Most fun non-competitive deck? …has to be reincarnate shaman right?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Troll priest

2:22
Dan Szymborski: Get in all the card stealing mechanics and heals

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Cabals, two mind controls, shrinkmeisters, recombobulators, all the shadow words, two lightbombs, two healbots

2:23
Dan Szymborski: two shadow madness

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Youre beatable, but the dudes who beat you will be really pissed off and annoyed at the half an hour ti takes

2:23
Comment From Ed
Please rank the amusement parks you have been to.

2:24
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t gone to a wide assortment

2:24
Dan Szymborski: a few six flags, king’s dominion

2:25
Dan Szymborski: I’m kinda partial to The Beach near Cincy because you can drink beer in their lazy river version

2:25
Comment From Bryan
From BRM, you have Emperor Thaurisson, Grim Patron, Flame Walker, and… I guess Chromaggus is ok. I like the Blackwing Corrupter and Blackwing Technician for dragon decks. Other than that, there just arent’ that many critical cards.

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you’re outlining the issue. Nefarian’s cool too, but so many of these require dragon decks.

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, you can build cool dragon decks. And then ladder goes all face hunter and you’re screwed

2:26
Dan Szymborski: THe dragons are simply terrible at stopping aggro.

2:26
Dan Szymborski: And they didn’t really make any playable dragons with low mana cost

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, there’s twilight whelp. But it’s a conditional card, only priest, and does what zombie chow does

2:27
Dan Szymborski: And the heal 5 to opponent, for zombie chow, is *way* better than having to hold a dragon

2:28
Dan Szymborski: What’s the dream with the whelp? That you’re holding Azure Drakes? That’s a 5 drop – you don’t want that in your opening hand if you can avoid it

2:28
Comment From hscer
does lightning factor into hearthstone more, or hearthstone into lightning?

2:28
Dan Szymborski: There are just a lot of hearthstone questions because people know I play

2:28
Comment From Wuttang
What are some of your complaints /things u want to see improved for hearthstone?

2:28
Dan Szymborski: A couple unconditionally good early dragons, a revamped ladder system, sit n’ go tournaments

2:28
Comment From Bryan
I think you get Patron and Thaurisson in the first wing so for casual players that may be all that you need.

2:28
Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, time to go

2:29
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody! As a reminder you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter. Also ZimSmash on Twitch, though I haven’t had a ton of streaming time lately





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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jimmer
8 years ago

Comment From Bret
Is Josh Donaldson going to win the AL MVP?

He was my preseason pick for MVP so I hope so 🙂